Analysis

4. Analyzing the association between rainfall and climatic

variables

4.1 Categorizing Rainfall Data

Rainfall data categorized in to two categories as Rain and No Rain. Rain category labeled as
Yes and No Rain category labeled as No for the purpose testing the association between
rainfall and each and every climatic variable and to build a decision tree.

Response

Categor

Variable

y
Yes
No

Rain
Total

Frequenc

Percentag

e
135
170
305

(%)
44.26
55.74
100

And also rainfall data was categorized to four categories as No Rain, Low, Medium and High.
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Analysis
This categorization was used in 2nd step of building a decision tree.
Rainfall
Category
1
2
3
4

Category
Description
No Rain
Low
Medium
High
Total

Rainfall Range
(mm)
0-1
1.1 - 15
15.1 - 35
>35.1

4.2 Categorizing Humidity Data

Humidity data was categorized as follows.
Categor
y

Relative Humidity Range

21 - 52
53 - 65
66 - 78
79 - 93
Total

1
2
3
4

Frequency
2
28
219
56
305

4.3 Categorizing Pressure Data

Pressure data was categorized as follows.
Categor
y

Pressure Range

(Pascal)
1 1005.0 - 1010.2
2 1010.3 - 1011.8
3 1011.9 - 1016.2
Total

Frequenc
y
155
84
66
305

4.4 Categorizing Wind Speed Data

Wind Speed data was categorized as follows.
Categor
[Type text]

Wind Speed Range (Km/h)

Frequency
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Frequency
204
66
24
11
305

Analysis
y
1
2
3
4

0.0 - 1.6
1.7 - 4.0
4.1 - 6.2
6.3 - 15.7
Total

70
58
88
89
305

4.5 Categorizing Temperature Data

Temperature data was categorized as follows.
4.6 Categorizing Cloud Amount
Cloud amount variable is a categorical variable. These categories can be ordered according to
the cloud amount. 0 means no clouds in the sky.
Frequency (No. of Days)

Cloud Amount
Category
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Total

20
18
24
35
42
43
48
53
22
305

4.7 Categorizing Wind Direction

No need to categorize again because wind direction variable is already categorized.
Wind

Freque

Directio

ncy

(No. of

Categori

Days)

es
CALM

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Analysis
E
ENE
ESE
N
NE
NNE
NNW
NW
S
SE
SSE
SSW
SW
W
WNW
WSW
Total

11
6
5
5
43
11
1
5
4
23
3
1
104
9
2
9
305

4.8 Testing the association between rainfall occurrence and humidity

Rainfall data and Humidity data were categorized as mentioned in the previous to check
whether any association between rainfall data and humidity.
4 2 Contingency table for binary response variable (Rainfall) and categorical
explanatory variable (Humidity)
Humidity

Rainfall

Category

occurrence

[Type text]

Total

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Analysis
No

Yes

2
24
137
7
170

1
2
3
4
Total

0
4
82
49
135

2
28
219
56
305

Test Hypothesis
H0 : Humidity has no effect on the Rainfall occurrence.
H1 : Humidity effects (is associated with) the Rainfall occurrence.
Model

Raw deviance

(1) logit(pi) = + i
(2) logit(pi) =

(-2 log Lc)

354.801
418.795

Corrected deviance

d.f

-2(log Lc - log Lf)

418.795 - 354.801 = 63.994
418.795 - 418.795 = 0

3
0

23, 5% = 7.82
Deviance (63.994) > 23, 5% (7.82)

Reject H0 (model (2)) at 5% level of significance. This implies that the explanatory variable
humidity is associated with the response variable rainfall occurrence.

4.9 Testing the association between rainfall occurrence and pressure

Rainfall data and Pressure data were categorized as mentioned in the previous to check
whether any association between rainfall occurrence and pressure.
3 2 Contingency table for binary response variable (Rainfall) and categorical
explanatory variable (Pressure)
Pressure
Category
1
2
3
Total
[Type text]

Rainfall occurrence
No
Yes

Total

75
51
44

80
33
22

155
84
66

170

135

305
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Analysis

Test Hypothesis
H0 : Pressure has no effect on the Rainfall occurrence.
H1 : Pressure effects (is associated with) the Rainfall occurrence.
Model

Raw deviance

(1) logit(pi) = + i
(2) logit(pi) =

(-2 log Lc)

411.296
418.795

Corrected deviance

d.f

-2(log Lc - log Lf)

418.795 - 411.296= 7.499
418.795 - 418.795 = 0

2
0

22, 5% = 5.99
Deviance (7.499) > 23, 5% (5.99)

Reject H0 (model (2)) at 5% level of significance. This implies that the explanatory variable
pressure is associated with the response variable rainfall occurrence.

4.10 Testing the association between rainfall occurrence and wind speed
Rainfall data and wind speed data were categorized as mentioned in the previous to check
whether any association between rainfall occurrence and wind speed.
4 2 Contingency table for binary response variable (Rainfall) and categorical
explanatory variable (Wind Speed)

Wind speed
Category
1
2
3
4
Total
[Type text]

Rainfall Occurrence
No
Yes
38
32
53
47
170

Total

32
26
35
42
135
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70
58
88
89
305

Analysis

Test Hypothesis
H0 : Wind Speed has no effect on the Rainfall occurrence.
H1 : Wind Speed effects (is associated with) the Rainfall occurrence.
Model
(1) logit(pi) = + i
(2) logit(pi) =

Raw deviance
(-2 log Lc)
417.694
418.795

Corrected deviance

d.f

-2(log Lc - log Lf)

418.795 417.694= 1.101
418.795 - 418.795 = 0

3
0

23, 5% = 7.82
Deviance (1.101) < 23, 5% (7.82)

Do not reject H0 at 5% level of significance. This implies that the explanatory variable
pressure is not associated with the response variable rainfall occurrence.

4.11 Testing the association between rainfall occurrence and cloud amount
Rainfall data and cloud amount data were categorized as mentioned in the previous to check
whether any association between rainfall occurrence and cloud amount.
4 2 Contingency table for binary response variable (Rainfall) and categorical
explanatory variable (Cloud Amount)
Cloud amount
Category
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Total
[Type text]

Rainfall Occurrence
No
Yes
18
15
14
21
27
24
19
24
8
170

2
3
10
14
15
19
29
29
14
135

Total
20
18
24
35
42
43
48
53
22
305
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Analysis
Test Hypothesis
H0 : Cloud amount has no effect on the Rainfall occurrence.
H1 : Cloud amount effects (is associated with) the Rainfall occurrence.
Model
(1) logit(pi) = + i
(2) logit(pi) =

Raw deviance
(-2 log Lc)
388.997
418.795

Corrected deviance

d.f

-2(log Lc - log Lf)

418.795 388.997= 29.798
418.795 - 418.795 = 0

8
0

28, 5% = 15.5
Deviance (29.798) > 23, 5% (15.5)

Reject H0 at 5% level of significance. This implies that the explanatory variable cloud amount
is associated with the response variable rainfall occurrence.

4.12 Testing the association between rainfall occurrence and wind direction
Rainfall data and wind direction data were categorized as mentioned in the previous to check
whether any association between rainfall occurrence and wind direction.
17 2 Contingency table for binary response variable (Rainfall) and categorical
explanatory variable (wind direction)

Wind Direction
Category
CALM
E
ENE
ESE
N
NE
NNE
NNW
NW
S
SE
SSE
SSW

[Type text]

Rainfall
Occurrence
No
Yes

Total

34

29

63

11

1
5
4
29
7
0
4
1
11
1
1

5
0
1
14
4
1
1
3
12
2
0

6
5
5
43
11
1
5
4
23
3
1

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Analysis
SW
W
WNW
WSW
Total

53
8
1
3
170

51
1
1
6
135

104
9
2
9
305

Test Hypothesis
H0 : Wind direction has no effect on the Rainfall occurrence.
H1 : Wind direction effects (is associated with) the Rainfall occurrence.
Model

Raw deviance
(-2 log Lc)

(1) logit(pi) = + i
(2) logit(pi) =

390.266
418.795

Corrected deviance

d.f

-2(log Lc - log Lf)

418.795 390.266= 28.529
418.795 - 418.795 = 0

16
0

216, 5% = 26.28
Deviance (28.529) > 23, 5% (26.28)

Reject H0 at 5% level of significance. This implies that the explanatory variable wind speed is
associated with the response variable rainfall occurrence.

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Analysis

4.13 Testing the association between rainfall occurrence and temperature

Rainfall data and temperature data were categorized as mentioned in the previous to check
whether any association between rainfall occurrence and temperature.
3 2 Contingency table for binary response variable (Rainfall) and categorical
explanatory variable (temperature)
Temperature
Category
1
2
3
Total

Rainfall Occurrence
No
Yes
25
27
118
170

Total
3
17
115
135

28
44
233
305

Test Hypothesis
H0 : Temperature has no effect on the Rainfall occurrence.
H1 : Temperature effects (is associated with) the Rainfall occurrence.
Model
(1) logit(pi) = + i
(2) logit(pi) =
[Type text]

Raw deviance

Corrected deviance

d.f

(-2 log Lc)

400.740
418.795

-2(log Lc - log Lf)

418.795 400.740= 18.355
418.795 - 418.795 = 0

2
0

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Analysis

22, 5% = 5.99
Deviance (18.355) > 23, 5% (5.99)

Reject H0 at 5% level of significance. This implies that the explanatory variable temperature
is associated with the response variable rainfall occurrence.

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