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GENERACION DE DESCARGAS EN CUENCA

METODO PROPUESTO POR LA MISION TECNICA ALEMANA


1. CLCULO DE LOS PARMETROS PARA LA DESCRIPCIN DE LA ESCORRENTA PROMEDIO
1.1 COEFICIENTE DE ESCORRENTA
Mtodo de L-TURC

D P

PD
C
P

0.9

C: Coeficiente de escorrenta

P2
L2

D: Dficit de escurrimiento
L: Coeficiente de temperatura

P: Precipitacin media anual


T: Temperatura media anual

L 300 25 T 0.05 (T ) 3

Descripcin

Datos

Dato

Temperatura Media Anual: T

8.7

Precipitacin Media Anual: P

851.0

mm

Coeficiente de Temperatura: L

550.4

Dficit de Escurrimiento: D

469.1

Coeficiente de Escorrenta: C

Viene de "Resultados"

mm/ao
0.45

Mtodo de la Misin Alemana


C: Coeficiente de escorrenta

=3.16 10 ^12^(0.
571)^(3.686)
Evaporacin Total Anual: ETP

1222

Coeficiente de Escorrenta: C

0.28

E: Evaporacin
mm

1.2 PRECIPITACIN EFECTIVA


Precipitacin Efectiva segn el Bureao of Reclamation
P

P. Efectiva: PE (mm)

(mm)

Curva I

Curva II

Curva III

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

10.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

20.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

30.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

40.0

0.5

4.0

8.0

50.0

1.0

6.0

11.0

100

60.0

1.5

8.0

14.0

80

70.0

3.0

10.0

18.0

80.0

4.0

14.0

24.0

90.0

5.5

18.0

30.0

40

100.0

8.0

23.0

39.0

20

Figura 1: Porcin de Precipitacin Efectiv


140
120
Precipitacin
Efectiva (m m )

60

80
60
40
20

110.0

11.0

29.0

48.0

120.0

15.0

36.0

58.0

130.0

19.0

43.0

68.0

140.0

24.0

52.0

78.0

150.0

30.0

60.0

88.0

160.0

37.0

69.0

98.0

170.0

45.0

79.0

108.0

180.0

55.0

89.0

118.0

CE

0.15

0.30

0.45

0
0

20

40

60

80

100

Precipitacin Mensual
Curv a I

Curv a II

Coeficientes de Clculo - Precipitacin Efectiva


Coef.

Curva I

a0

0.609

Curva II Curva III Curva IV Curva V Curva VI Curva VII


-0.135

0.655

-0.446

-1.103

-1.027

-1E+00

a1

-0.029

0.030

-0.028

0.181

0.414

0.502

6E-01

a2

0.002

0.001

0.006

0.007

0.005

0.005

4E-03

a3

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

-1E-05

El rango de aplicacin de los coeficientes de la ecuacin


Polinmica de la PE est comprendida para 0 < P < 250 mm

1.3 CLCULO DE LA RETENCIN EN LA CUENCA

Descripcin
Altitud media de la cuenca

Dato
3500

msnm

Pendiente medio acuifero

2.0

Area de Lagunas e hidromorficas

54.0

km2

Area de acuiferos

96.0

km2

Area de la cuenca

698.4

km2

Retension ( R )

79.9

mm

1.4 GASTOS DE LA RETENCIN Y ABASTECIMIENTO DE LA RETENCIN

Coeficiente de agotamiento

Cuencas con agotamiento rpido.


Retencin entre 50 y 80 mm/ao y vegetacin p

a=-0.00252 * Ln (area) +
0.031

Descripcin

Dato

Area de la cuenca: A

698.4

Km2

Altitud Media de la Microcuenca: H

3500

msnm

Pendiente Media de la Microcuenca

0.95

m/m

Precipitacin Media Anual: P

851.0

mm

Evaporacin Total Anual: ETP

1222.0

mm

Temperatura Media Anual: T

8.70

Dficit de Escurrimiento: D

469.1

mm/ao

Coeficiente de Escorrenta: C

0.45

Coeficiente de Agotamiento: a

0.01

Relacin de Caudales (30 das): bo

0.65

Area de lagunas y acuferos

5.00

Km2

Gasto Mensual de Retencin: R

79.90

mm/ao

1.5 GENERACION DE CAUDALES MEDIOS MENSUALES PARA EL AO PROMEDIO


Precipitacin Mensual
P

Contribucin de la Retensin

Efectiva

Gasto

Abastecimiento

Caudales
Generados

Mes

N das
del mes

Enero

31

188.28

100.68

134.32

Febrero

28

179.96

89.50

125.24

Marzo

31

159.70

65.83

103.44

87.12

Abril

30

54.18

5.45

14.60

10.63

0.65

30.18

40.81

Mayo

31

9.83

0.25

0.93

0.64

0.41

18.98

19.62

Junio

30

6.18

0.09

0.70

0.44

0.27

12.65

13.08

Julio

31

8.74

0.20

0.85

0.57

0.17

7.73

8.29

Agosto

31

22.42

1.06

2.84

2.07

0.11

4.93

7.00

Setiem.

30

35.78

2.43

6.63

4.81

0.07

3.43

8.24

Octubre

31

43.89

3.58

9.77

7.08

0.04

2.01

Noviem.

30

49.52

4.54

12.30

8.93

0.05

3.99

4.94

Diciem.

31

92.53

17.44

39.83

30.12

0.35

27.96

2.15

851.0

291.0

451.5

381.9

1.000

79.9

381.9

Total

PE II

PE III

PE

bi

mm/mes mm/mes mm/mes mm/mes

AO
Coeficientes

0.45

0.434

0.566

Gi

ai

mm/mes
7

mm/mes mm/mes
9

10

11

119.72

0.40

31.96

87.76

109.73

0.20

15.98

93.75

0.00

0.00

87.12

1.714

Ai

79.9

9.09

1.000

1.6 CALCULO DE LOS COEFICIENTES DE CORRELACION PARA EL AO PROMEDIO


Qt
87.8
93.8
87.1
40.8
19.6
13.1
8.3
7.0
8.2
9.1
4.9
2.2

Qt-1
2.2
87.8
93.8
87.1
40.8
19.6
13.1
8.3
7.0
8.2
9.1
4.9

PE
119.7
109.7
87.1
10.6
0.6
0.4
0.6
2.1
4.8
7.1
8.9
30.1

1.7 RESULTADOS DE LA REGRESIN

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple

0.9802

Coeficiente de determinacin R^2

0.9607

R^2 ajustado

0.9520

Error tpico

8.5040

Observaciones

12

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad

Suma de cuadrados

Promedio de los cuadrados

F
110.0413

Regresin

15916

7957.983

Residuos

650.8632

72.31813

11

16566.83

Total

Error tpico

Estadstico t

Probabilidad

Inferior 95%

Intercepci 0.5740

Coeficientes

3.379892

0.169826

0.868903

-7.07185

Qt-1

0.3214

0.071321

4.506934

0.001474

0.160101

PE

0.6605

0.057961

11.39591

1.2E-006

0.5294

Superior 95%

S EN CUENCA

ECNICA ALEMANA - 1980

A PROMEDIO

tados"

in de Precipitacin Efectiva Segn Bureao Of Reclamation

m)

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Precipitacin Mensual (m m )
Curv a I

Curv a II

Curv a III

mm/ao y vegetacin poco desarrollada (puna):

Caudales
Generados
m3/s
12
22.88
27.07
22.72
11.00
5.11
3.52
2.16
1.82
2.22
2.37
1.33
0.56
8.56

Valor crtico de F
4.7E-007

Superior 95%

Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%

8.219838

-7.07185

8.219838

0.482781

0.160101

0.482781

0.791634

0.5294

0.791634

PRECIPITACION MEDIA DE LA CUENCA

Ao
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
MAX.
MED.
MIN.
D.EST

Ene.
128.8
184.8
168.6
337.9
278.1
298.4
177.0
189.7
63.7
216.3
46.3
84.8
204.0
123.5
48.8
146.9
161.5
131.3
251.6
262.7
307.4
183.5
175.2
187.9
250.6
183.9
198.0
183.8
216.4
245.4
175.0
277.9
315.0
148.9
129.4
119.0
164.3
202.9
137.7
224.5
337.9
188.3
46.3
70.6

Feb.
144.5
160.8
196.1
246.5
204.6
307.6
195.8
159.8
250.9
77.1
111.0
54.5
279.0
114.4
45.1
136.0
149.6
187.1
54.7
97.6
284.7
169.9
162.2
174.0
232.1
170.3
101.2
309.5
229.4
97.3
294.1
273.9
236.3
200.3
136.7
221.7
124.0
219.3
148.3
240.5
309.5
180.0
45.1
72.1

Mar.
111.4
179.2
125.1
265.5
197.6
196.8
219.2
196.2
160.8
81.4
105.3
193.7
88.9
115.1
40.4
121.8
134.0
146.0
152.5
116.5
255.0
152.1
145.3
155.8
207.8
152.5
103.7
151.4
125.2
124.1
199.3
235.3
220.7
182.5
262.2
121.0
80.8
227.7
249.0
89.5
265.5
159.7
40.4
56.2

Abr.
57.0
33.6
60.2
36.3
93.7
111.6
34.6
36.8
31.2
32.3
46.3
30.2
96.3
28.9
14.7
44.2
48.6
68.5
20.8
97.3
92.5
55.2
52.7
56.5
75.4
55.3
30.2
131.9
38.5
9.7
91.7
53.4
76.0
65.0
38.2
49.8
38.7
59.5
40.4
34.1
131.9
54.2
9.7
27.3

May.
5.1
22.5
3.0
4.2
9.4
6.3
31.1
14.3
0.0
12.8
4.6
4.9
5.0
0.2
2.7
8.1
9.0
18.5
22.8
28.0
17.1
10.2
9.7
10.4
13.9
10.2
3.5
0.0
21.6
0.0
6.8
10.2
38.4
6.5
15.5
1.2
0.0
0.0
5.0
0.8
38.4
9.8
0.0
9.2

Jun.
7.1
5.9
11.8
1.1
4.5
29.3
3.8
16.0
0.0
13.8
2.3
0.8
4.2
28.5
1.7
5.1
5.6
0.0
13.7
0.0
10.6
6.3
6.1
6.5
8.7
2.2
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.5
1.9
5.0
0.0
15.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.8
29.3
6.2
0.0
7.3

Jul.
3.3
6.9
0.1
17.5
15.0
6.3
0.0
4.0
14.4
2.5
6.4
5.5
0.3
0.0
1.6
4.7
5.2
8.3
11.2
16.4
9.9
5.9
5.6
6.0
8.0
5.9
0.0
4.6
1.1
0.0
5.9
5.9
29.2
83.7
4.4
34.7
5.1
0.0
4.2
0.0
83.7
8.7
0.0
14.2

Ago.
12.2
4.8
14.8
6.3
21.6
105.7
12.5
23.7
0.8
3.5
25.7
1.7
82.9
32.2
6.5
19.5
21.4
25.4
10.8
4.9
40.8
24.4
23.3
24.9
33.3
24.4
4.9
38.3
88.9
0.0
15.5
22.1
34.2
16.3
24.1
17.6
8.4
15.8
0.0
3.2
105.7
22.4
0.0
23.1

Set.
35.1
56.6
12.4
40.0
65.0
71.8
23.6
140.2
29.6
19.0
10.8
37.8
39.9
40.1
10.5
31.5
34.7
36.2
1.3
27.0
66.0
39.4
37.6
40.3
53.8
30.3
34.5
34.4
65.8
0.0
55.8
10.3
21.8
31.4
26.0
38.2
55.6
4.0
23.1
0.0
140.2
35.8
0.0
25.2

Oct.
59.2
47.6
36.3
62.6
28.6
29.9
34.2
2.0
39.1
48.4
28.2
117.4
42.1
95.9
11.4
34.4
37.8
17.5
47.9
31.6
71.9
42.9
41.0
43.9
58.6
20.8
25.0
43.0
17.6
30.5
83.8
46.4
73.6
93.2
32.6
25.3
22.1
82.2
11.9
37.0
117.4
43.9
2.0
25.1

Nov.
53.6
42.6
10.4
56.3
67.3
43.0
23.8
9.1
119.9
94.9
37.8
60.9
89.8
63.6
13.2
39.7
43.7
31.6
45.6
49.8
83.2
49.7
47.4
50.8
67.8
46.0
40.0
49.8
78.1
15.3
15.5
38.9
42.2
87.2
36.5
45.3
15.4
130.5
28.6
16.1
130.5
49.5
9.1
28.2

Dic.
110.9
79.6
125.6
60.6
91.8
91.8
156.1
58.4
41.8
125.2
82.1
49.1
141.9
35.8
24.3
73.3
80.7
113.7
22.3
98.4
153.5
91.6
87.5
93.8
125.1
90.5
54.6
91.8
85.0
174.7
130.0
106.3
58.4
101.8
120.2
72.5
178.4
77.6
79.1
65.4
178.4
92.5
22.3
37.6

NUMEROS ALEATORIOS GENERADOS CON DISTRIBUCION NORMAL


Ao
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
MED.

Ene.
0.99
1.71
0.34
-0.32
-0.34
0.26
-0.65
-0.97
0.67
-0.73
0.00
-0.18
-1.75
-0.49
-1.98
-0.19
-1.19
2.34
0.02
-0.64
-1.62
-0.14
-2.07
-0.57
-0.02
-0.62
-0.32
-0.15
-1.89
1.07
0.09
0.40
0.20
0.71
1.81
-0.83
0.68
-1.44
-2.13
-1.32
0

Feb.
-2.21
0.94
1.07
-1.14
0.67
1.87
-0.24
2.12
0.07
-0.02
0.72
-1.66
0.80
-1.47
0.06
0.35
-0.03
-0.32
-0.68
0.00
-2.38
1.69
-0.42
0.53
-2.94
-1.21
1.43
0.00
-0.57
0.76
0.60
-0.78
0.53
-0.31
1.55
-1.21
-2.11
0.61
-1.28
-0.64
0

Mar.
-1.81
1.35
0.20
1.41
-1.87
-2.83
-1.49
0.44
0.14
-0.05
0.38
-0.16
0.07
-1.67
0.72
2.43
-0.60
-0.24
1.68
0.86
1.22
0.32
-0.77
-0.27
0.31
0.04
-0.24
0.54
-0.69
-2.21
0.13
0.01
-0.17
0.10
-0.50
0.58
-1.11
-0.27
-0.61
1.05
0

Abr.
-0.13
-0.09
-0.52
2.19
-0.22
-0.48
-0.71
0.53
-0.53
1.35
1.00
1.73
0.47
2.13
-1.25
-0.66
1.61
-0.60
0.70
-1.70
-1.09
-0.20
-1.06
0.31
1.08
0.96
-1.36
1.91
-1.10
0.13
0.76
0.44
-0.56
-1.05
0.36
0.66
0.88
0.19
-0.80
0.14
0

May.
1.70
-0.85
0.89
-1.01
0.13
-0.72
-0.38
-0.51
-0.36
0.92
0.28
0.28
0.30
-0.71
0.18
-1.82
-1.00
0.58
-2.12
0.46
0.85
0.93
1.24
-1.07
0.56
0.85
0.47
1.45
0.80
2.07
0.80
0.77
-1.90
-1.12
1.30
-1.35
1.38
1.03
-0.29
-0.67
0

Jun.
-1.01
1.23
0.75
1.57
1.35
-1.19
-0.42
1.76
0.20
1.03
-1.27
0.52
0.14
0.92
-0.84
1.10
-0.20
1.44
-0.29
0.69
0.94
-1.33
1.43
-1.08
-0.36
-1.03
-0.14
-1.08
-0.20
0.60
0.99
-1.33
-1.25
-1.36
-1.17
-0.18
-1.49
-1.68
-0.51
0.13
0

Jul.
-2.49
-0.17
-0.59
-2.10
-1.09
-0.31
-0.47
-0.09
-0.35
1.15
-0.89
0.48
-0.78
1.56
-0.79
0.75
0.43
-1.21
1.03
-1.60
-0.05
0.97
-1.87
-0.17
0.30
0.89
0.18
0.75
0.22
-0.20
0.07
-0.57
0.96
-1.69
0.17
1.21
-1.28
-0.06
-0.34
0.21
0

Ago.
0.71
0.02
-0.09
-2.34
-1.37
1.14
-0.40
-0.10
-1.07
1.07
1.42
-0.49
-0.94
0.75
-1.62
0.24
-1.15
-0.42
-0.71
0.53
0.05
0.21
-0.01
-0.63
-0.41
0.55
-0.71
-2.12
1.26
1.78
-1.06
0.49
0.53
0.04
-1.80
1.11
-0.37
-0.42
0.67
1.15
0

Set.
-1.40
1.64
0.53
-0.55
-1.00
-1.19
0.07
0.38
-0.02
-1.61
-0.81
-0.95
0.95
0.90
0.35
0.64
0.86
-0.87
0.78
-1.08
-0.50
-1.45
-1.60
-0.09
1.13
0.96
0.50
-0.11
-1.91
0.49
-1.16
1.32
0.53
-1.32
-0.36
-1.96
0.18
-1.26
-0.40
0.87
0

Oct.
-0.46
0.90
-0.29
-0.15
-0.48
-1.94
-1.16
2.57
0.42
0.06
1.89
-0.17
0.59
-0.77
0.99
-0.78
-0.90
1.05
-0.20
-1.48
1.82
0.99
-1.43
0.95
-1.42
-0.98
0.50
-0.41
0.01
-0.68
0.14
-0.45
-1.49
0.97
-0.65
-0.65
-0.46
1.02
0.07
-0.70
0

Nov.
0.35
0.27
-0.52
-0.75
1.24
-0.38
0.24
-0.07
-0.88
1.92
-1.76
-0.23
0.51
-0.15
-1.18
-0.35
0.11
-0.58
1.78
1.30
-0.80
1.69
0.60
-0.76
1.18
-0.76
1.87
0.00
0.92
0.09
-2.05
-0.54
0.74
-0.26
-0.35
1.28
-0.53
0.63
-2.60
0.62
0

Dic.
-1.02
0.52
0.55
2.21
-2.31
0.71
1.09
-0.79
1.25
-0.02
0.31
0.98
0.35
0.92
1.25
0.58
-0.93
-2.23
0.33
2.72
-0.13
0.09
0.52
1.55
-0.70
1.58
0.78
1.00
-1.41
0.62
-0.75
1.20
-1.26
-0.70
1.46
-1.95
1.54
0.02
-0.82
1.06
0

D.EST
1
1
1
Fuente: Elaboracin propia

PRECIPITACION EFECTIVA GENERADA


C
Tot.
728.0
824.7
764.3
1134.7
1077.2
1298.5
911.6
850.1
752.1
727.2
506.9
641.3
1074.4
678.3
220.8
665.2
731.7
783.9
655.2
830.2
1392.6
831.0
793.4
850.9
1135.1
792.2
595.7
1039.5
967.5
697.0
1073.4
1096.0
1147.7
1021.8
825.7
761.7
692.7
1019.4
727.2
723.8
1392.6
851.0
220.8
223.9

0.64
0.61
0.55
Ao
Ene.
Feb.
Mar.
1969
81.9
88.1
60.7
1970
117.5
98.0
97.8
1971
107.2
119.5
68.2
1972
214.9 150.3 144.8
1973
176.8 124.7 107.8
1974
189.8 187.6 107.4
1975
112.6
119.4
119.6
1976
120.7
97.4
107.0
1977
40.5
153.0
87.7
1978
137.5
47.0
44.4
1979
29.5
67.7
57.4
1980
53.9
33.2
105.7
1981
129.7 170.1
48.5
1982
78.5
69.8
62.8
1983
31.0
27.5
22.1
1984
93.4
82.9
66.4
1985
102.7
91.2
73.1
1986
83.5
114.1
79.6
1987
160.0
33.4
83.2
1988
167.1
59.5
63.6
1989
195.5 173.6 139.1
1990
116.7
103.6
83.0
1991
111.4
98.9
79.2
1992
119.4
106.1
85.0
1993
159.4 141.5
113.4
1994
116.9
103.8
83.2
1995
125.9
61.7
56.6
1996
116.9
188.7
82.6
1997
137.6 139.9
68.3
1998
156.0
59.3
67.7
1999
111.3
179.4 108.7
2000
176.7 167.0 128.4
2001
200.3 144.1 120.4
2002
94.7
122.1
99.5
2003
82.3
83.3
143.0
2004
75.7
135.2
66.0
2005
104.5
75.6
44.1
2006
129.0 133.7 124.2
2007
87.5
90.4
135.8
2008
142.7 146.7
48.8
MAX. 214.9 188.7 144.8
MED.
119.7 109.7
87.1
MIN.
29.5
27.5
22.1
D.EST
44.9
43.9
30.7
Fuente: Elaboracin propia

0.20
Abr.
11.2
6.6
11.8
7.1
18.4
21.9
6.8
7.2
6.1
6.3
9.1
5.9
18.9
5.7
2.9
8.7
9.5
13.4
4.1
19.1
18.1
10.8
10.3
11.1
14.8
10.8
5.9
25.9
7.5
1.9
18.0
10.5
14.9
12.8
7.5
9.8
7.6
11.7
7.9
6.7
25.9
10.6
1.9
5.4

0.06
May.
0.3
1.5
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.4
2.0
0.9
0.0
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.6
1.2
1.5
1.8
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.9
0.7
0.2
0.0
1.4
0.0
0.4
0.7
2.5
0.4
1.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
2.5
0.6
0.0
0.6

0.11
Jun.
0.8
0.7
1.3
0.1
0.5
3.3
0.4
1.8
0.0
1.6
0.3
0.1
0.5
3.2
0.2
0.6
0.6
0.0
1.6
0.0
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.7
1.0
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.8
0.2
0.6
0.0
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
3.3
0.7
0.0
0.8

0.06
Jul.
0.2
0.4
0.0
1.1
1.0
0.4
0.0
0.3
0.9
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.7
1.1
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.4
1.9
5.4
0.3
2.3
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
5.4
0.6
0.0
0.9

0.09
Ago.
1.1
0.4
1.4
0.6
2.0
9.7
1.2
2.2
0.1
0.3
2.4
0.2
7.6
3.0
0.6
1.8
2.0
2.3
1.0
0.4
3.8
2.2
2.1
2.3
3.1
2.3
0.4
3.5
8.2
0.0
1.4
2.0
3.1
1.5
2.2
1.6
0.8
1.5
0.0
0.3
9.7
2.1
0.0
2.1

0.13
Set.
4.7
7.6
1.7
5.4
8.7
9.6
3.2
18.9
4.0
2.6
1.5
5.1
5.4
5.4
1.4
4.2
4.7
4.9
0.2
3.6
8.9
5.3
5.1
5.4
7.2
4.1
4.6
4.6
8.8
0.0
7.5
1.4
2.9
4.2
3.5
5.1
7.5
0.5
3.1
0.0
18.9
4.8
0.0
3.4

0.16
Oct.
9.5
7.7
5.9
10.1
4.6
4.8
5.5
0.3
6.3
7.8
4.6
19.0
6.8
15.5
1.8
5.5
6.1
2.8
7.7
5.1
11.6
6.9
6.6
7.1
9.5
3.4
4.0
6.9
2.8
4.9
13.5
7.5
11.9
15.0
5.3
4.1
3.6
13.3
1.9
6.0
19.0
7.1
0.3
4.1

DESCARGAS MEDIAS MENSUALES GENERADAS (mm)


Coeficientes de Regresin Mltiple:

b1
S

Modelo Matemtico:
Ao
Prom.
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
MAX.

Ene.
Feb.
Mar.
87.8
93.8
87.1
56.6
74.3
62.4
88.7
95.0
97.3
78.6 106.1
80.0
151.5 147.2 145.2
123.1 123.3 109.2
133.1 169.5 122.6
81.6 105.4
111.6
91.0
96.7 102.9
32.5
112.2
94.7
95.7
62.4
49.9
30.5
56.0
56.9
42.5
34.2
81.2
89.4 142.6
78.5
63.5
65.3
61.0
22.9
26.2
24.4
64.6
76.5
72.0
73.1
84.3
75.2
64.7
96.3
83.9
114.0
58.4
76.3
113.0
76.2
68.1
136.7 156.3 144.2
89.6
99.8
87.9
79.3
90.9
81.2
86.1
98.9
88.2
113.9 127.1
116.7
86.9
95.6
86.3
91.1
72.3
60.9
82.8 151.9 104.6
97.0 123.5
84.5
111.7
76.6
67.3
87.1 147.8 120.0
127.0 150.8 133.8
141.8 142.0 125.5
68.7 102.9
99.5
65.5
78.5
119.7
59.2 107.5
79.4
75.7
72.3
51.6
97.5 121.0 121.2
63.5
79.2
115.0
98.8 128.4
75.3
151.5 169.5 145.2

0.57399
8.50401

b2
R^2

0.32144
0.98016

b3

Qt = b1 + b2*Qt-1 + b3*PEt + Z*S*(1 - R^2)^0.


Abr.
40.8
27.9
36.1
33.4
54.6
47.5
53.9
40.1
39.1
34.4
22.4
26.1
32.7
38.9
26.5
8.8
28.6
33.0
35.7
28.6
33.0
57.6
35.7
32.2
36.6
49.2
36.6
22.4
53.6
31.4
23.6
51.9
51.0
50.1
39.7
44.4
33.3
23.2
47.5
41.8
29.4
57.6

May.
19.6
11.8
12.1
12.5
17.1
16.4
17.3
14.3
13.1
11.2
9.4
9.5
11.6
13.6
8.2
3.7
7.9
10.4
13.5
8.2
12.9
20.8
13.6
12.8
11.5
17.6
13.8
8.5
19.5
12.6
10.6
18.5
18.3
16.0
12.3
17.1
9.7
9.7
17.1
13.9
9.2
20.8

Jun.
13.1
3.7
6.4
6.4
8.0
7.8
6.9
5.0
8.1
4.4
5.9
2.3
5.0
5.4
6.5
0.9
4.8
4.1
6.7
3.9
5.6
9.2
3.8
6.9
3.5
6.5
3.9
3.1
5.6
4.4
4.7
7.7
6.0
4.4
3.3
4.7
4.6
1.9
4.1
4.4
4.7
9.2

Jul.
Ago.
8.3
7.0
-1.1
1.8
2.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.4
-1.4
2.4
1.0
2.7
9.2
1.6
1.4
3.2
2.9
2.2
0.0
3.9
3.3
0.5
4.0
3.0
1.0
1.4
5.0
4.5
4.9
0.0
-1.0
3.2
3.1
2.6
1.3
1.6
2.1
3.5
1.5
1.1
1.9
3.9
4.4
3.2
3.3
0.8
2.2
1.7
1.9
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.7
1.8
0.6
3.5
1.5
2.3
8.2
1.9
3.3
3.4
1.3
2.1
3.2
4.4
4.7
3.2
2.6
2.5
0.7
5.0
4.6
-0.1
0.6
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.3
2.9
5.0
9.2

Set.
8.2
2.6
8.1
3.0
3.0
5.5
8.5
3.2
14.4
3.2
1.4
1.9
3.1
6.9
6.8
1.6
5.1
5.1
3.4
2.1
2.3
7.2
3.4
2.7
4.7
7.7
5.6
4.4
4.0
6.8
2.2
4.6
4.1
4.7
2.6
2.7
3.1
5.9
-0.1
2.8
2.5
14.4

Oct.
9.1
7.2
9.3
5.0
8.0
4.8
4.2
3.9
8.5
6.3
6.3
6.4
13.9
8.0
12.1
3.5
5.0
5.2
4.8
6.1
2.9
12.8
7.4
4.1
7.9
7.6
3.4
5.3
5.9
4.6
3.7
11.2
6.3
8.1
12.5
4.1
3.5
4.3
10.5
2.8
4.5
13.9

MED.
86.8
100.8
90.4
MIN.
22.9
26.2
24.4
D.EST
30.1
34.3
27.3
Fuente: Elaboracin propia

36.8
8.8
10.9

13.0
3.7
3.7

5.1
0.9
1.8

2.4
-1.1
1.3

2.6
-1.4
2.1

4.3
-0.1
2.6

6.5
2.8
2.9

ADA

PRECIPITACION EFECTIVA GENERADA CON C


0.18
Nov.
9.7
7.7
1.9
10.2
12.1
7.8
4.3
1.6
21.6
17.1
6.8
11.0
16.2
11.5
2.4
7.2
7.9
5.7
8.2
9.0
15.0
9.0
8.5
9.2
12.2
8.3
7.2
9.0
14.1
2.8
2.8
7.0
7.6
15.7
6.6
8.2
2.8
23.5
5.2
2.9
23.5
8.9
1.6
5.1

0.33
Dic.
36.1
25.9
40.9
19.7
29.9
29.9
50.8
19.0
13.6
40.7
26.7
16.0
46.2
11.7
7.9
23.9
26.3
37.0
7.3
32.0
50.0
29.8
28.5
30.5
40.7
29.4
17.8
29.9
27.7
56.9
42.3
34.6
19.0
33.1
39.1
23.6
58.1
25.3
25.7
21.3
58.1
30.1
7.3
12.3

Tot.
304.5
371.8
360.0
564.6
487.2
572.6
425.7
377.3
333.8
306.4
206.6
250.7
450.2
267.0
98.1
295.4
325.0
345.1
308.8
362.3
618.5
369.1
352.4
377.9
504.2
363.5
284.5
468.4
416.4
349.5
485.7
537.9
528.9
405.2
374.1
333.3
304.7
462.7
358.2
376.8
618.5
382.1
98.1
104.5

n=

73

Ao
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
MAX.
MED.
MIN.
D.EST

Ene.
59.4
106.0
92.1
246.5
190.3
209.3
99.3
110.3
14.5
133.8
6.2
27.2
122.9
55.2
7.2
73.9
86.1
61.3
165.8
176.1
217.8
104.8
97.7
108.7
165.0
105.2
117.6
105.1
133.9
160.2
97.6
190.1
224.9
75.6
59.8
51.7
88.4
121.9
66.4
141.2
246.5
111.9
6.2
59.7

Feb.
72.0
85.4
115.9
161.2
123.4
217.9
115.7
84.6
165.2
22.3
45.7
9.8
191.2
48.3
5.8
65.1
76.1
108.0
9.9
36.0
196.5
93.2
86.7
96.7
148.1
93.5
38.5
219.7
145.7
35.7
205.3
186.4
151.9
119.6
65.6
138.7
55.5
136.5
75.0
155.7
219.7
105.1
5.8
60.3

Mar.
45.9
101.2
56.4
178.7
117.2
116.5
136.4
116.0
85.4
25.0
41.5
113.8
30.0
48.8
4.1
53.9
63.4
73.1
78.5
49.8
169.0
78.2
72.6
81.3
126.3
78.5
40.3
77.6
56.5
55.6
118.7
151.0
137.8
104.0
175.6
53.2
24.7
144.1
163.5
30.3
178.7
86.9
4.1
46.4

Abr.
11.0
2.0
12.6
2.7
33.2
46.1
2.3
2.9
1.4
1.7
6.2
1.2
35.0
1.0
0.2
5.4
7.2
17.2
0.0
35.7
32.4
10.2
9.0
10.8
21.3
10.2
1.2
61.8
3.4
1.0
31.8
9.3
21.6
15.2
3.3
7.7
3.5
12.3
4.0
2.1
61.8
12.4
0.0
14.4

May.
2.3
0.1
3.2
2.7
1.0
1.9
1.4
0.2
4.7
0.4
2.5
2.4
2.4
4.6
3.3
1.4
1.1
0.0
0.2
0.8
0.0
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.3
0.9
3.0
4.7
0.1
4.7
1.8
0.9
3.4
1.8
0.1
4.0
4.7
4.7
2.4
4.3
4.7
2.0
0.0
1.6

Jun.
1.7
2.1
0.6
4.1
2.6
1.1
2.9
0.1
4.7
0.3
3.5
4.3
2.7
0.9
3.8
2.3
2.2
4.7
0.3
4.7
0.8
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.2
3.6
4.7
4.1
4.7
4.7
4.7
0.1
3.7
2.4
4.7
0.1
4.7
4.7
4.7
0.4
4.7
2.7
0.1
1.7

Jul.
3.0
1.7
4.6
0.0
0.2
1.9
4.7
2.8
0.2
3.4
1.9
2.2
4.5
4.7
3.9
2.5
2.3
1.3
0.7
0.1
0.9
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.4
2.1
4.7
2.5
4.1
4.7
2.1
2.1
1.0
26.5
2.6
2.3
2.3
4.7
2.7
4.7
26.5
3.1
0.0
4.1

AS (mm)
0.66052

DESCARGAS MEDIAS MENSUALES GENERAD

*PEt + Z*S*(1 - R^2)^0.5


Nov.
4.9
9.7
9.0
2.8
9.0
11.6
6.6
4.9
4.3
15.8
16.2
5.0
12.0
14.4
11.8
1.9
6.5
7.6
5.2
10.1
9.0
13.6
10.9
8.3
8.3
12.5
6.2
9.3
8.4
12.5
3.7
3.6
6.6
9.1
14.7
5.8
8.6
3.2
20.3
1.8
4.7
20.3

Area
Dic.
2.2
26.3
21.2
29.1
19.1
21.3
23.3
37.0
13.6
16.1
32.7
20.2
16.2
36.1
13.2
7.9
19.1
19.2
24.0
9.0
27.9
37.8
23.9
22.7
25.3
30.7
23.9
16.2
24.2
21.2
40.1
28.8
27.0
14.5
26.3
30.0
16.6
41.8
23.8
17.2
17.4
41.8

Tot.
381.9
283.1
387.7
360.9
562.7
474.0
557.6
410.1
397.9
333.1
309.5
219.4
256.4
440.2
284.3
100.9
296.4
321.2
342.0
321.9
354.0
604.6
382.7
344.2
374.5
496.1
369.4
295.9
465.5
408.9
349.4
485.8
536.3
525.3
388.3
375.7
335.2
290.1
466.1
346.1
380.2
604.6

Ao
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
MAX.

Jan
30
15.24
23.89
21.18
40.82
33.17
35.86
22.00
24.52
8.75
25.79
8.23
11.45
24.08
17.10
6.18
17.40
19.71
17.43
30.71
30.46
36.84
24.14
21.38
23.19
30.70
23.42
24.54
22.31
26.13
30.10
23.46
34.22
38.21
18.50
17.66
15.95
20.41
26.27
17.11
26.62
40.82

698.4
Feb
28
21.45
27.41
30.63
42.49
35.61
48.93
30.43
27.92
32.38
18.00
16.16
9.87
41.17
18.86
7.56
22.09
24.34
27.81
16.87
22.01
45.14
28.82
26.25
28.56
36.71
27.61
20.88
43.84
35.65
22.11
42.65
43.53
40.99
29.72
22.67
31.02
20.88
34.92
22.86
37.08
48.93

Km2
Mar
31
16.27
25.37
20.85
37.87
28.47
31.97
29.11
26.83
24.70
13.01
14.85
21.17
20.48
15.92
6.37
18.77
19.62
21.87
19.90
17.76
37.59
22.91
21.18
23.00
30.43
22.51
15.88
27.27
22.04
17.54
31.30
34.90
32.73
25.95
31.21
20.70
13.46
31.60
29.99
19.65
37.87

Apr
30
7.51
9.73
9.01
14.71
12.81
14.51
10.80
10.52
9.27
6.04
7.03
8.80
10.47
7.14
2.38
7.72
8.89
9.61
7.72
8.90
15.52
9.63
8.69
9.87
13.24
9.87
6.04
14.43
8.46
6.36
13.99
13.75
13.50
10.70
11.97
8.98
6.26
12.79
11.27
7.91
15.52

May
31
3.07
3.16
3.26
4.45
4.28
4.51
3.74
3.42
2.92
2.46
2.47
3.03
3.56
2.15
0.98
2.07
2.70
3.53
2.14
3.37
5.43
3.55
3.35
3.00
4.60
3.60
2.22
5.09
3.27
2.77
4.83
4.78
4.18
3.20
4.45
2.54
2.53
4.45
3.62
2.41
5.43

Jun
30
0.99
1.72
1.72
2.16
2.10
1.86
1.34
2.18
1.19
1.58
0.61
1.34
1.47
1.74
0.24
1.30
1.10
1.79
1.05
1.50
2.48
1.03
1.85
0.93
1.74
1.06
0.85
1.52
1.18
1.27
2.08
1.63
1.18
0.88
1.26
1.25
0.51
1.09
1.19
1.26
2.48

Jul
31
-0.28
0.71
0.50
0.36
0.63
0.70
0.42
0.85
0.57
1.03
0.13
0.78
0.37
1.18
0.00
0.84
0.68
0.42
0.92
0.30
1.02
0.84
0.20
0.45
0.87
0.83
0.47
0.91
0.60
0.48
0.88
0.54
1.14
0.83
0.64
1.30
-0.04
0.47
0.46
0.61
1.30

8.6
1.8
4.3

23.5
7.9
8.1

380.8
100.9
100.9

MED. 23.38 29.10 23.57


MIN.
6.18
7.56
6.37
D.EST
8.10
9.90
7.13
Fuente: Elaboracin propia
Medio anual 8.61
8.61
8.61

9.92
2.38
2.92

3.38
0.98
0.97

1.38
0.24
0.48

0.62
-0.28
0.34

8.61

8.61

8.61

8.61

ca u

GENERADA CON CURVA NUMERO

Ago.
0.5
2.5
0.2
1.9
0.1
41.8
0.5
0.2
4.3
3.0
0.5
3.8
26.0
1.7
1.9
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.7
2.4
4.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
1.9
0.3
2.4
3.3
30.0
4.7
0.1
0.1
2.2
0.1
0.3
0.0
1.3
0.1
4.7
3.1
41.8
3.8
0.0
8.6

Set.
2.4
10.9
0.5
3.9
15.2
19.1
0.2
68.5
1.1
0.0
0.7
3.2
3.9
4.0
0.8
1.5
2.3
2.7
4.0
0.7
15.8
3.7
3.1
4.0
9.5
1.3
2.3
2.2
15.7
4.7
10.5
0.8
0.1
1.5
0.5
3.3
10.4
2.8
0.2
4.7
68.5
6.1
0.0
11.3

Oct.
12.1
6.7
2.7
13.9
0.9
1.2
2.2
3.7
3.6
7.1
0.9
50.5
4.6
34.7
0.6
2.2
3.2
0.0
6.9
1.5
19.2
4.9
4.2
5.3
11.9
0.0
0.4
5.0
0.0
1.3
26.6
6.3
20.2
32.9
1.8
0.4
0.1
25.5
0.5
3.0
50.5
8.2
0.0
11.5

Nov.
9.4
4.8
0.8
10.7
16.5
5.0
0.3
1.1
52.4
34.0
3.2
13.0
30.6
14.5
0.4
3.8
5.2
1.5
5.9
7.7
26.2
7.6
6.7
8.2
16.8
6.1
3.9
7.7
22.9
0.1
0.1
3.6
4.7
28.9
2.8
5.9
0.1
60.7
0.9
0.1
60.7
10.9
0.1
13.9

Dic.
45.6
23.9
56.8
12.9
31.9
31.9
81.6
11.7
4.5
56.5
25.5
7.4
69.8
2.6
0.3
20.0
24.6
47.7
0.1
36.5
79.4
31.8
29.0
33.3
56.5
31.0
9.9
31.9
27.4
97.3
60.3
42.2
11.7
39.0
52.6
19.6
100.4
22.7
23.6
15.4
100.4
35.2
0.1
25.4

Tot.
265.3
347.3
346.4
639.2
532.5
693.7
447.5
402.1
342.0
287.5
138.3
238.8
523.6
221.0
32.3
232.0
273.8
317.9
273.0
352.0
762.2
339.6
314.3
353.4
560.2
332.7
228.9
525.6
444.4
374.7
559.6
592.9
583.2
447.5
369.7
286.9
296.1
540.7
348.6
365.0
762.2
388.3
32.3
153.0

SUALES GENERADAS (m3/s)

Aug
31
0.47
0.46
0.52
-0.37
0.27
2.41
0.36
0.77
0.01
0.87
1.04
0.27
1.29
1.27
-0.25
0.80
0.35
0.56
0.40
0.49
1.14
0.87
0.58
0.49
0.83
0.98
0.16
0.39
2.15
0.86
0.35
0.83
1.23
0.69
0.18
1.19
0.16
0.42
0.51
0.75
2.41

Sep
30
0.70
2.19
0.80
0.81
1.48
2.29
0.86
3.89
0.86
0.38
0.50
0.84
1.85
1.83
0.43
1.38
1.38
0.92
0.57
0.62
1.95
0.92
0.73
1.25
2.08
1.51
1.19
1.07
1.83
0.60
1.23
1.10
1.25
0.71
0.72
0.83
1.60
-0.02
0.75
0.68
3.89

Oct
31
1.87
2.43
1.31
2.10
1.25
1.08
1.01
2.22
1.64
1.63
1.68
3.62
2.08
3.14
0.91
1.29
1.35
1.25
1.60
0.76
3.33
1.94
1.07
2.06
1.98
0.89
1.37
1.55
1.21
0.97
2.91
1.64
2.12
3.26
1.08
0.91
1.12
2.75
0.74
1.17
3.62

Nov
30
2.61
2.42
0.76
2.42
3.13
1.77
1.33
1.16
4.26
4.36
1.36
3.24
3.89
3.19
0.50
1.75
2.04
1.40
2.72
2.42
3.67
2.94
2.23
2.22
3.37
1.68
2.50
2.27
3.36
1.00
0.96
1.78
2.45
3.95
1.57
2.33
0.85
5.46
0.48
1.26
5.46

Dec
31
6.86
5.53
7.60
4.99
5.55
6.07
9.66
3.54
4.21
8.52
5.27
4.22
9.42
3.44
2.06
4.99
5.02
6.26
2.35
7.27
9.86
6.23
5.91
6.58
7.99
6.24
4.23
6.31
5.52
10.45
7.50
7.04
3.79
6.87
7.83
4.33
10.89
6.20
4.48
4.54
10.89

Prom.
(m3/s)
6.40
8.75
8.18
12.73
10.73
12.66
9.25
8.98
7.56
6.97
4.94
5.72
10.01
6.41
2.28
6.70
7.26
7.74
7.25
7.99
13.66
8.65
7.78
8.47
11.21
8.35
6.69
10.58
9.28
7.88
11.01
12.15
11.90
8.77
8.44
7.61
6.55
10.53
7.79
8.66
13.66

0.67
-0.37
0.54

1.16
-0.02
0.70

1.71
0.74
0.76

2.33
0.48
1.16

6.14
2.06
2.11

8.61
2.28
2.29

8.61

8.61

8.61

8.61

8.61

8.61

CAUDALES GENERADOS CON EL MTODO LUTZ

ca u dal (m/s )

Ro w 108

Ro w 112

PP mensual total
Limite superior
(mm)

0.0
25.4
50.8
76.2
101.6
127.0
152.4
177.8

Porcion de la precipitacin
Aprovechable por las plantas (mm)
Dficit o Escurrimiento (mm)
III
IV
V
VI
VII
I
II
III
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
22.9
20.4
17.9
15.4
12.9
10.4
0.0
2.5
5.0
44.5
38.1
28
17.9
15.4
10.4
1.3
6.3
12.7
63.5
49.5
30.5
20.4
15.4
10.4
3.8
12.7
26.7
76.2
54.6
33
20.4
15.4
10.4
8.9
25.4
47.0
83.8
57.1
33
20.4
15.4
10.4
19.1
43.2
69.9
86.4
57.1
33
20.4
15.4
10.4
34.3
66.0
95.3
86.4
57.1
33
20.4
15.4
10.4
57.2
91.4 120.7
C
0.15
0.30
0.45

II
0
25.4
49.5
72.4
92.7
107.9
118.1
120.6

Curvas de agua aprovechable por las plantas segn el Bureao of Reclamation


140
Precipitacion efectiva (mm)
120

Curvas de pre
180

160
Precipitacion
efectiva (mm)
I
II
III
140

100

120

80

VI

20

40

60

100

60

80

40

60
40

20

20

0
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Precipitacion Total (mm)

160

180

0
0

Prec

Dficit o Escurrimiento (mm)


IV
V
VI
VII
0
0
0
0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
22.8
32.9
35.4
40.4
45.7
55.8
60.8
65.8
68.6
81.2
86.2
91.2
94.0 106.6 111.6 116.6
119.4 132.0 137.0 142.0
144.8 157.4 162.4 167.4
0.60
0.75
0.90
1.00

I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII

Curvas de precipitacion efectiva segn el Bureao of Reclamation


+
180
160
Precipitacion
efectiva (mm)
I
II
III
140
120

VI

VII

20

40

60

IV

100
80
60
40
20
0
0

80

100

120

Precipitacion Total (mm)

140

160

180

Ecuaciones de las curvas de PE


y = 4E-06x3 + 0.0023x2 - 0.0285x + 0.6091
y = 1E-05x3 - 0.0008x2 + 0.0303x - 0.1348
y = -1E-05x3 + 0.0058x2 - 0.0276x + 0.6545
y = -2E-05x3 + 0.0067x2 + 0.1806x - 0.4455
y = -2E-05x3 + 0.0054x2 + 0.4135x - 1.103
y = -1E-05x3 + 0.0049x2 + 0.5021x - 1.0273
y = -1E-05x3 + 0.0037x2 + 0.6474x - 1.103

a0
0.6091
-0.1348
0.6545
-0.4455
-1.103
-1.0273
-1.103

Coeficientes
a1
a2
-0.0285
0.0023
0.0303
0.0008
-0.0276
0.0058
0.1806
0.0067
0.4135
0.0054
0.5021
0.0049
0.6474
3.70E-03

a3
4.00E-06
1.00E-05
-1.00E-05
-2.00E-05
-2.00E-05
-1.00E-05
-1.00E-05

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