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Opinion
Avoiding a
Sino-American
confrontation
China claims, naturally, that its rise will be peaceful. But with tensions between China and its
neighbors rising, and smaller Asian states looking at the US for their security, violent conflict in East
Asia cannot be ruled out. This article argues that the US cannot maintain the status quo in EastAsia, and should therefore accommodate China as the dominant force in the region in order to avoid
unnecessary conflict. Contrary to the beliefs of the foreign policy establishment, accommodating
Chinas great power rise is a prudent, wise, and realistic policy.
Katern: Opinion
the pacifying effects of economic interdependence (globalization); and the near certainty so it is claimed that
China will embed itself in the institutions and structures
of the current world order, and accept its rules, norms, and
institutions.2 None of these arguments is persuasive.
First, without delving too deeply into the arcane details
of nuclear weapons strategy, we know that, because of the
stability/instability paradox, although nuclear armed
states are deterred from using nuclear weapons against
each other, they are not stopped from fighting a conventional war. This isnt speculation: in the 1999 Kargil conflict,
India and Pakistan both armed with nuclear weapons
fought each other with conventional forces.
Second, as for the notion that economic interdependence
prevents war, that was exploded by the outbreak of World
War I. In 1911 the British writer Norman Angell published
a famous book, The Great Illusion, arguing that the tight
economic interconnections between Europes great powers
made war between, or among, them impossible.3 August
1914 proved otherwise. Third, it is delusional to think that
a powerful China willingly will subordinate itself to the
institutions, rules, and norms of the current world order
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One way to visualize the Sino-American rivalry in East-Asia, is the familiar scene in Western films: This town aint big enough for
both of us. (photo: Flickr/Kevin Zollman)
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Opinion
There are two big reasons why Chinas great power emergence could trigger a Sino-American conflict sometime
during the next couple of decades. First is the SinoAmerican competition for geopolitical supremacy in East
Asia. Since 1945, the US has been the dominant power in
East Asia but now a rapidly ascending China is aiming to
unseat the United States, and establish its own regional
preponderance. There are two ways to visualize why the
Sino-American relationship is a geopolitical powder keg.
One is the Dodge City Syndrome. Cinephiles who like
American Westerns know that in many such films there is a
scene where two gunslingers encounter each other in the
town saloon. When their eyes meet, one says This town
aint big enough for both of us. We all know how that
turns out. Another way to think of the evolving SinoAmerican relationship is what I call the Newtonian Theory
of Geopolitics: two great powers cannot dominate the
same region at the same time.
The second generator of Sino-American conflict is power
transition dynamics, which kick-in when a declining
hegemon is challenged by a fast-rising upstart great power.4 The dynamics of the relationships between dominant
powers in decline and the challengers that seek to displace
them are defined by competition and instability, because
they pose one of the foundational questions of great power
relations: when the distribution of power is in flux, how
can the aims of the status quo power(s) be reconciled
with the aims of a revisionist power that seeks to change
the international order to reflect the ongoing shift in the
Opinion
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entrapment dynamics of US alliances in the region (especially with Japan) which are transmission belts for war
that threaten to embroil the US in conflict with China.
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Katern: Opinion
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The Port of Miami. According to the author, the American foreign policy establishment believes China challenges the idea of an
Open Door World (photo: Wikimedia/James R. Tourtellotte)