National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook

National Interagency Fire Center

Predictive Services

Issued: June 1, 2010

Next Issue: July 1, 2010

Wildland Fire Outlook – June through September 2010

The June, and July through September, 2010 significant fire potential outlooks are shown below. The
primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

• Drought: Drought conditions continue to persist over portions of the northwest quarter of the
country, the Great Lakes, Alaska, and the leeward side of the Hawaiian Islands.

• Grassland Fuels: Abundant fine fuels across southern Arizona, southern California deserts,
and southern Nevada are expected to lead to a 4-6 week active grassland fire season. Fire
potential is expected to be below normal across portions of the Great Basin due to the lack of
dense fine fuels.

• Fire Season Onset: In areas with above average winter snowpack and/or abundant spring
precipitation, fire season onset will be delayed, especially at the higher elevations.

• Southwest Monsoon: Early indications suggest monsoon onset will occur around the typical
start date with associated precipitation amounts near normal for the season.

Note: Significant fire potential is defined as the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require mobilization of additional
resources from outside the area in which the fire situation originates.
Past Weather and Drought
May was colder than normal over the West and warmer than normal in the East, especially across the
Southeast. Precipitation over the last 90 days (below left) shows persistent dryness over the Great
Lakes as well as portions of the Southeast. Drought is forecast to persist across the Great Lakes,
portions of the northwest quarter of the country, Hawaii and Alaska. May in Alaska was much warmer
and drier than normal with interior stations showing about 50% of normal precipitation for the normally
dry month of May. The dry weather even extended into the normally wet panhandle. Widespread dry
lightning resulted in the highest number of wildfires during May in the last 6 years.

www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/monitoring/drought/ www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/
 Weather and Climate Outlooks
El Niño continues to weaken to a neutral state with more normal sea surface temperatures. La Niña
conditions are likely to develop by late summer into early fall. The National Weather Service Climate
Prediction Center’s monthly and seasonal outlooks reflect a combination of neutral/La Niña impacts,
soil moisture conditions, the latest numerical weather model output (out to 14 days) and long term
climate trends.

A = Above normal, B = Below normal, N = Normal, EC = Equal Chances of Above/Below/Normal.

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif
Area Discussions
Alaska: Above normal significant fire potential is expected to persist through June, then transition to
normal for the remainder of the outlook period. Below normal winter snowpack over much of Alaska
has contributed to lower than normal fuel moistures. Drought conditions have developed over the last
10 months resulting in extremely dry fuels. In fact, several fires from last summer have smoldered
throughout the winter to reemerge this spring. Alaska is forecast to be under strong high pressure
through much of June, which will contribute to warm weather, dry fuels and increased dry lightning
potential. The July through September forecast calls for a shift in the weather pattern which should
produce more normal temperatures and precipitation. Therefore, fire activity is anticipated to become
closer to normal as the season progresses.

Southwest: Significant fire potential is expected to be below normal across the higher elevations of
the Area through June and above normal for the southwestern half of Arizona through mid-July.
Normal significant fire potential is expected elsewhere for the remainder of the outlook period. June is
forecast to have warmer than normal temperatures in the west and normal to below normal
temperatures in the east. Periodic above normal precipitation is expected across approximately the
eastern 1/3 of the Area during the first part of June. Most areas further west will experience below
normal to normal precipitation. Westward surges of moisture by mid-late month could lead to some
dry or mixed wet/dry lightning outbreaks in Arizona. June, a usually hot and dry month, is seen as the
most critical time period for above average fire potential in southwestern Arizona during which fine
fuels may cure rapidly, leading to a active 4-6 week fire season until the onset of the monsoon.
Temperatures will likely be above average for the extended outlook period. July through September
precipitation forecasts call for near normal precipitation with driest conditions across the southeastern
sections, and wettest conditions across the northern and western portions of the Area. A normal
onset of the summer monsoon is expected with good moisture into the region sometime in early-mid
July.

Northern Rockies: Normal significant fire potential is expected for June, increasing to above normal
significant fire potential by mid-July and continuing through August for portions along and west of the
Great Divide. Normal significant fire potential is expected elsewhere for the remainder of the outlook
period. June tends to be the wettest month across the Geographic Area, especially during El Niño
conditions. Snowpack has been well below normal for most mountain areas along and west of the
Divide this winter and the spring has been a bit cooler and drier than normal. Fire activity is expected
to increase by mid-June which is a normal start time for the fire season. There is a very prominent dry
signal along and west of the Great Divide, including Yellowstone Park, where fire activity could
potentially become problematic by mid-July as fuels dry out. Carryover fine fuels from 2008 and
2009, along with adequate spring rains this year, have produced an above normal load of fine fuels
across the Area. The climate forecast for July through August calls for near normal temperatures and
below normal precipitation. Some wind events towards the end of August and early September can be
expected with dry cold fronts that may temporarily elevate fire potential.

Great Basin: Significant fire potential is expected to be below normal across most of Nevada, and
south-central and southwest Utah. Above normal significant fire potential is predicted for extreme
southern Nevada through mid-July, and central Idaho and northwest Wyoming beginning in mid-July
and continuing through August. Normal significant fire potential is expected elsewhere for the
remainder of the outlook period. The climate forecast for June calls for above normal temperatures
and normal precipitation. The July through September time period will likely be warmer than normal
across the region and drier than normal across the northwest half of the region. Southern Nevada
expects to see increased fire activity until the onset of the monsoon season due to warm
temperatures and winter moisture providing for significant fine fuel growth. Much of central and
northern Nevada is expected to have below normal significant fire potential throughout the outlook
period due to the lack of fine fuel growth. Nevada’s active fire years typically have well above normal
winter rainfall, abundant grass and an above average snowpack, most of which is lacking in 2010.
Given a significant lightning episode, Nevada could experience a near normal number of acres
burned. Greenup is currently underway across most of Eastern Great Basin, but a persistent low
pressure trough pattern through May has kept the region cool and relatively wet. Grass growth is
stunted but fine fuels are fairly continuous, so fuel loadings are low. Curing of fuels will likely be
delayed until late June for most areas. Southeast Utah will likely cure earliest and therefore expect to
see fire potential increase there first. Once fuels are cured, the biggest fire potential threat is likely to
be in the mountains of central/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. Very low moisture conditions,
increased bark beetle impacts and anticipated hot, dry summer conditions enhance the threat in these
locations. The west deserts and central/southern Utah mountains will likely not be receptive to fire for
a long period of time before anticipated monsoon moisture increases humidity and precipitation
frequency. This should shorten the fire season and reduce potential/activity to below normal levels.

Northwest: Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for extreme northern and eastern
Washington in mid-July through August and extreme southern Oregon in August and September.
Normal significant fire potential is expected elsewhere for the remainder of the outlook period. Cooler
and wetter spring weather across the Area has slowed snow melt to normal timing despite decreased
snowpack from a warm, dry winter. Climate outlooks suggest cooler and wetter than normal
conditions for portions of the Area with a drier than normal pattern setting up for the July through
September period. The predicted summer climate pattern may lean towards lightning activity in
Okanogan region of north-central Washington and therefore a higher likelihood of significant fire
potential. Elsewhere, some spikes in large fire activity are expected during the summer fire season,
especially in the drier regions of southeastern Washington and south-central Oregon.

California and Hawaii: Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for the deserts of southern
California through mid-July, northeast California for August and September, and the leeward side of
the Hawaiian Islands for the entire outlook period. Below normal significant fire potential is forecast
for the central Sierra Nevada and central coast for the entire outlook period. Normal significant fire
potential is expected elsewhere for the remainder of the outlook period. Although much of California
received abundant precipitation over the winter, northeastern California developed drought conditions
that, despite the recent cool and wet pattern, are forecast to persist throughout the summer. This will
contribute to lower fuel moistures and higher fire danger indices as the season progresses. In
general, green-up and curing of herbaceous fuels are occurring on a normal schedule for northern
California. Damage to trees from winter storms will add to the downed fuel load in some locations
across the state. Fire activity is expected to increase, as normal, throughout the month of June.
Normal to above normal temperatures are expected throughout the outlook period with dryness
expected to develop across northern California for the extended outlook period. Abundant fine fuel
growth across the southern California deserts from the wet winter, is expected to lead to increased fire
activity until increased moisture arrives from the onset of the monsoon. Below normal risk of large
fires is anticipated over the central coast and portions of the central Sierra Nevada where persistent
winter and spring weather patterns have brought plentiful precipitation. Drought is expected to persist
along the leeward side of the Hawaiian Islands through the summer.

Rocky Mountain: Normal significant fire potential is forecast for most of the Rocky Mountain Area.
Above normal potential is forecast for northwestern Wyoming, centered on the Shoshone National
Forest and Wind River Range, pertaining primarily to the mid-July through August time frame.
Snowpack remains below average across western Wyoming; however precipitation increased across
that area during May, slightly improving drought conditions. Southwest Colorado mountains
experienced a significant melt-off during May bringing snowpack levels below 40% of normal. In
northwest Wyoming, below average winter snowpack, severe drought conditions and forecasted hot
and dry conditions in July through September support increase fire potential. Similar concerns may
develop across western Wyoming and northwest Colorado; however confidence in such development
is low at this point in time. Some fuels-related fire potential concerns remain, such as: grasses and
shrubs in eastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas, and areas of insect-related tree mortality in
north-central Colorado, the panhandle of Nebraska, and the Black Hills region of South Dakota.
Elsewhere across the Area, short durations of fuel and fire weather conditions that support large fire
activity are expected to develop.
Eastern Area: Significant fire potential is expected to be above normal over the northern Great
Lakes through June, with normal potential expected elsewhere for the remainder of the outlook
period. Much of the north central and northeast Great Lakes as well as the northwestern Mid-Atlantic
states received below normal precipitation through May. In addition, fire danger indices across these
areas were at or above the 90th percentile with soil moisture much below normal. A transition from an
El Niño to neutral conditions is currently underway. During previous transitions, the Great Lakes has
experienced below normal precipitation trends into the early summer months. Therefore, above
normal fire potential is expected to persist across the north central and northeast Great Lakes through
June where moderate to severe levels of drought are in place. Conditions across the northwest Mid-
Atlantic States northward into portions of the Northeast will also need to be monitored into the early
summer months due to dryness. However, short term weather trends such as warm, windy days will
be the main influence on fire potential across these areas throughout the summer.

Southern Area: Significant fire potential is forecast to be above normal for portions of eastern Texas
and western Louisiana throughout the outlook period, and normal to below normal elsewhere for the
remainder of the outlook period. Persistent drought and the anticipated dryness trends for the
summer suggests that this area may see above normal significant fire potential through the outlook
period. Northern Florida will continue to be monitored for development of any conditions that could
spike ignition potential above normal. Much of the Area will see normal to below normal fire activity
resulting from average to above average rainfall activity.
 Historic and Predicted Wildland Fires and Acres Burned Data
Based on data reported Year-to-Date in 2010, nationally there were 81 percent of the average
numbers of fires burning approximately 63 percent of the average acres. Nationally, as of May 31, the
10 year average number of fires is 31,652 and the 10 year average acres burned is 1,063,019. The
following table displays 10 year historical, current and predicted information pertaining to fire statistics.
MAY 31, 2010 Average Projection for Average Historical Historical
Reported reported June Reported Low Year High Year
Year-To-Date for JUNE YTD+Forecast YTD JUN YTD JUN of YTD JUN of
30 30 Low 30 High
ALASKA
Fires 262 139 429 299 197 2006 358 1999
Acres 259,946 302,106 924,580 354,154 6,896 2008 963,685 2002
NORTHWEST
Fires 98 404 300 623 387 2003 926 2004
Acres 316 20,918 7,637 22,778 1,914 2003 113,902 2000
NORTH OPS
Fires 384 821 1,040 1,229 597 2005 2,294 2008
Acres 849 32,608 15,522 36,741 2,533 2005 269,091 2008
SOUTH OPS
Fires 596 831 1,219 1,714 1,089 2003 3,155 2002
Acres 8,066 28,288 33,526 38,714 5,275 2000 84,402 2008
NORTHERN ROCKIES
Fires 430 259 638 877 481 2005 1,359 2004
Acres 4,107 5,210 5,931 23,135 8,599 2005 50,069 2008
EAST BASIN
Fires 108 328 321 442 235 2008 617 2001
Acres 555 53,238 24,512 55,722 1,114 2009 138,227 2002
WEST BASIN
Fires 31 137 134 215 139 2008 294 2004
Acres 79 102,879 15,511 105,393 390 2009 731,377 2005
SOUTHWEST
Fires 715 879 1,418 2,059 1,542 2004 3,010 2006
Acres 58,315 176,232 164,054 340,252 45,178 2001 836,005 2002
ROCKY MOUNTAIN
Fires 279 416 570 846 522 2001 1,485 2006
Acres 18,873 44,984 43,614 87,560 6,010 2003 365,333 2002
EASTERN AREA
Fires 8,040 764 8,690 8,902 6,760 2004 11,919 2009
Acres 81,179 2,403 82,981 97,208 45,323 2008 172,246 2003
SOUTHERN AREA
Fires 14,851 3,799 17,130 24,676 10,757 2003 37,090 2006
Acres 242,118 121,703 284,714 821,495 185,030 2003 2,273,271 2006
NATIONALLY
Fires 25,794 8,777 31,916 41,881 26,880 2003 57,248 2006
Acres 674,403 890,568 1,602,843 1,983,153 728,615 2003 3,656,940 2006

Prepared June 1, 2010 by the National Interagency Coordination Center Predictive Services Staff. The information
above was obtained primarily from Incident Management Situation Reports from 2000-2009, however some
inaccuracies and inconsistencies have been corrected. Therefore, the data may not reflect other historic records and
should not be considered for official statistical purposes.

Note: This national outlook and some geographic area assessments are currently available at the NICC and GACC
websites. The GACC websites can also be accessed though the NICC webpage at:
http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm