Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
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Source: http://indiamicrofinance.com
Source: http://indiamicrofinance.com
3
Source: ASA & Associates A brief report on Real Estate sector in
India 4 Source: https://www.lntrealty.com/
2
with its transparency, customer-focused approach and continuous quest for world-class quality. L&T
Realty has an impressive presence across Western India, Southern India and Chandigarh with many
residential, commercial and retail projects. The company is committed to creating landmarks of
excellence. This is reflected in its business parks built to support uninterrupted work 24x7, the under
construction Transit Oriented Development (Indias largest), in Navi Mumbai - Seawoods Grand
Central, and its much-coveted residential buildings and complexes. The company believes that
progress must be achieved in harmony with the environment, and is deeply committed to
environmental protection and community welfare. Each project is a mission to fulfil customer
expectations and a promise to set new standards of delivery and satisfaction.
When we talk about the feasibility analysis of a real estate project, we mostly talk about economic
feasibility or financial feasibility. It is not so that we ignore the other factors in a real estate feasibility
study. Most often we incorporate all of them in the economic feasibility. The final result of a real estate
feasibility analysis is inclusive of technical, legal, operational and scheduling feasibility studies.
Source: Feasibility Analysis Study being used for Real Estate Projects
Key Considerations
To
estimate
marketability of project
the
Reason
To create the product
Key Considerations
What are the market preferences relating to design features; unit types
and sizes; pricing; and financial, tenure and management structures?
What amenities will prospective residents require to be offered in the
project?
To
substantiate the
project
residents require?
How extensive are the personal, health and medical care needs of the
prospective residents?
How can services best be delivered?
What marketing strategy or theme will assist to reach the target market?
Many large, well-established development companies conduct market analysis both before and after
site selection. Market analysis before site selection can help identify gaps in a given market area that
could present future development opportunities. Market analysis after site selection focuses on
refining the target market, finalizing the project concept and securing financing. For most developers
and sponsors, however, market analysis takes place before a site has been selected, as the initial
process of defining the target market and completing the market analysis will ultimately drive the
choice of a particular site.
4.2 Site Selection and Analysis
The process described above assumes that the developer or sponsor does not yet own a parcel of land
and is, instead, exploring alternative sites located in neighbourhoods with population characteristics that
match the chosen target market profile and proposed development concept. If the market analysis
suggests sufficient demand to support a feasible project, the next step is to explore in detail the viability
of the proposed development site.
When selecting a site, the preferences, needs and demands of the target market must be carefully
balanced against the realities of cost and other site-specific conditions and constraints. These include
location, proximity to services and amenities, and the character of the surrounding neighbourhood.
Developers and sponsors also need to consider whether neighbourhood residents will support the
project or express opposition, an issue discussed in more detail in Volume 3: Planning the Project.
Unfortunately, the best-located sites and those that offer the greatest development opportunity are
often priced to reflect their preferential status in the marketplace. Hence, narrowing the search down
to a particular site requires a number of trade-offs.
4.3 Competitive Market Analysis
Analyzing the competitions market positioning provides insights into local market preferences can
help to identify unmet needs. It involves studying the profile of older people living in other seniors
developments in the market area and noting whether the housing is appropriate to their needs with
respect to financial, social, recreational, service and lifestyle factors. Properly analyzing the
competition is a time-consuming process, but it is essential.
Essential to a comprehensive description of the market and to identifying gaps in the market is a
macro-level understanding of the socio-demographic characteristics of the population. The competing
projects should be recorded by:
Municipal address;
Sponsorship;
Year of opening;
Building condition;
Tenure;
This data can generally be obtained through brochures, websites and other promotional materials. The
insights gained will assist in future product positioning. For example, information on the number of
projects in the area and the year in which they opened will help indicate how familiar the market is with
different housing forms targeted to older residents. Information on the number and type of units will help
to confirm if supply meets or exceeds demand. Data on tenure, cost, and service and amenity offerings
will indicate which market segments are currently being served and which are not.
The next step is to focus on a narrower range of projects for more in-depth examination. Three to five
projects serving the same target market should be examined in detail with respect to:
Unit sizes;
Vacancy rates;
Waiting lists;
Position in the seniors housing industry spectrum (for example, assisted living or
supportive housing).
This information will reveal which market is being served, the level of demand and the primary market
for each project. Research on the history of competitors projects will disclose whether changes have
been made over time and why, thereby helping to identify evolving market preferences and gaps.
Problems encountered by these projects, indicated by high vacancy rates, may also serve as a lesson
in design features, marketing image and unit mix.
Identifying projects that have not yet opened but are well into the planning and development phase is
another critical task. Another developer or sponsor may be in the midst of an active marketing and
promotional campaign for a new project about to open in the same market area. Find out when the
project is scheduled to open, the unit profile, the pricing strategy and other project attributes. Some of
this information may be gleaned from municipal and provincial government sources or industry
associations, especially for projects that receive operating subsidies. Other information on new and
pending completion can often be obtained from local market housing analysts, planning and
development consultants, and real estate agents. Information about projects that are still at the
concept stage may be available through informal networks.
Information on current and planned projects can generally be obtained from municipal planning
authorities, local developer or builder associations, trade associations and seniors associations, as
well as by word-of-mouth in the neighbourhood.
The information on current and planned projects targeting the same primary market and market segment
and offering similar services and amenities should be analyzed for:
The number of households within target age and income profile of the proposed project
currently residing in competing projects;
The number of other units that will be in operation and drawing from the same market
segment as the proposed project when it opens.
Comparing these numbers with the data collected through the earlier market analysis will identify the size
of the market (the total number of qualified households) for the project.
Throughout the analysis, use the following assumptions to ensure that risks are conservatively estimated:
People who already live in one form of housing in the seniors housing industry spectrum,
such as assisted living accommodation, will not generally move to the same form of
housing offered by another assisted living provider and should, therefore, be subtracted
from the pool of prospective residents.
Residents living in a different form of housing in the seniors housing industry spectrum
may be attracted to the proposed development, provided their current accommodation
represents an earlier stage along the spectrum. For example, residents of assisted living
accommodation are unlikely to move back into a newly constructed independent living or
active lifestyle development, but those in mainstream housing may be attracted to
independent living accommodation aimed at the seniors market.
All competing projects in the planning and development stages that are not yet completed
will be occupied first, at a market rate of 95 % occupancy, so that the pool of qualified
households will be further reduced.
Turnover in existing projects will be replaced by the prospective market pool at the current
turnover rate, estimated at 10 %.
For the last two calculations, assume between 70 %and 80 %of residents will come from
the primary market area, and the rest from elsewhere.
Hard costs are directly attributable to the construction and finishing process and include
labour, materials, appliances, furniture and equipment. They may also include the
purchase price of the land and the value of any external improvements made to the
property, such as site servicing and landscaping.
Soft costs are those incurred in the planning and design of the project and include
architectural and engineering fees, legal fees, permit fees, environmental assessments,
and advertising and promotion expenses.
Fixed costs are those that do not depend on the number of units constructed. The costs
associated with a real estate appraisal or the completion of a Phase 1 Environmental
Site Assessment would be considered fixed costs, since they would be the same
regardless of the number of units proposed.
One of the most difficult decisions faced by most beginning developers and sponsors is deciding on the
optimal size of a project, the correct mix of units, the range of services and amenities to offer and the
size of the marketing budget. No less challenging is determining what impact these decisions will have
on construction costs, personnel costs and other operating expenses.
In most cases, developers or housing providers create high and low scenarios to establish a range of
costs and to help project future expenditures over the first two or three years of operation. In all cases,
cost estimates should be as detailed as possible and properly account for inflation and escalation, which
can occur over time and as the project is occupied.
4.4.2 Project Revenues
The revenue sources associated with most seniors projects are limited and include entrance fees, selling
prices and rents; service fees; and non-operating revenues, such as interest income and bequests. The
size of the project, the rate at which it is occupied or the units sold (known as the absorption rate) and
market demand all affect revenues. Developers and housing providers should prepare several revenue
scenarios to cover both optimistic and pessimistic market predictions over the first few years of the
project.
4.4.3 Project Financial Pro Forma
In real estate, a pro forma is used to assemble all relevant financial information about a project. It is
separated into a capital budget and an operating budget.
The capital budget conveys the primary sources and uses of the funds that go into planning, designing
and constructing a project. The uses of the funds in a capital budget are expressed as costs and the
sources of funds are referred to as capital.
There are many different ways to raise capital to finance a real estate development; however, the two
common forms are equity and debt. In practical terms, equity refers to the amount of funds developers
or sponsors contribute to the project themselves. This could take the form of cash or, if land is already
owned, the value of the property contributed to the project. However, developers and housing providers
who do not have sufficient liquid funds to cover all costs secure financing to cover the difference between
the total cost of the project and the amount of equity that has been invested.
The operating budget (also called the operating cash flow statement) conveys the expenses and
revenues associated with the operation of a rental project or the sale of the units to owners. Rental
projects, such as retirement homes, incur expenses for utilities, staff salaries and other costs, and
generate income through rents and other fees collected from the tenants. Income can be calculated by
subtracting the cost of operating the project from the revenues collected through rents and the provision
of services.
For ownership projects, the process is more or less the same, although instead of a series of ongoing
expenses and revenues, the expenses are incurred during the construction period and sales phase, and
the revenues are incurred as a single lump-sum payment at closing. The key components of a typical
operating budget are illustrated in table 2.
Operating
revenue
Total annual revenue expected from rents. Depending on the project, the rent may be
set by the provincial government.
+ Funding
Additional funding received. Most long-term care projects, for example, receive funding
from the provincial government or local health authority.
Operating
expenses
Costs incurred to receive rent from the property, such as utilities, insurance, property
taxes, maintenance and repairs, or capital reserves.
Debt service The annual total of payments necessary to pay off the mortgage.
= Net
operating
income
Income the project produces after expenses are paid (the bottom line). An income
analysis approach will exclude debt service costs from operating expenses; however,
in some cases operating expenses include debt service.
Return
Return
Debt
Coverage
Ratio (DCR)
The lenders primary tool for evaluating the project. It Net Operating Income /
represents the amount of annual cash flow available to meet
annual interest and principal payments on debt. The minimum Debt Service
DCR required varies according to prevailing local economic
and real estate market conditions.
Different scenarios, assuming different rates of occupancy, can be used to test the financial viability of
the proposed development concept under varying market conditions. Adjustments may be needed to
ensure that the proposed undertaking provides a healthy return on investment or return on equity. The
following questions can help in amending the operating cash flow statement if the initial project concept
is found to be unfeasible:
What compromises, in terms of unit mix, unit sizes, design features, amenities and
services, will reduce costs?
What services and amenities must be available on opening day, and what can be phased
in later?
These issues are made slightly more complex by the nature of the product and the characteristics of the
market. A well-prepared project feasibility analysis can help answer many of these questions. However,
the final determination will always be a judgment call. The better the research, the more likely it is that
the risk will have been accurately assessed.
4.4.5 Project Lender Expectations
Financial feasibility analysis can generate useful information not only for the developer or sponsor of a
proposed undertaking but also for financial institutions, which expect to see detailed financial pro forma
statements on a project proposal before they offer a construction loan, a take-out mortgage, or mortgage
insurance. They want assurances that a project will generate sufficient cash flow to cover annual interest
and principal payments on the debt, both during the immediate rental or sales period and over the life of
the loan. Lenders and mortgage insurers will also be concerned with risk and measures taken to reduce
risk.
Residential
Commercial
Parking
Parking/Lobby
Parking/Lobby
Parking
Level 13 - 34
Level 6 - 12
Level 2-5
Level 1
Ground
2 Basement
Timeline
Bid award
23-Apr-2015
Construction starts
01-Apr-2016
Construction completes
31-Mar-2020
31-Mar-2017
01-Apr-2016
Area
Sqft
for 732178
Construction
Cost
Commercial Part
Construction Cost for Residential
Part
Construction Cost for Parking
Levels/Basement
Cost of
Infrastructure
Development
Rs /
sqft
3217
In Rs.
Rs. Cr
2,355,415,140
236
1708414 3432
5,863,277,725
586
860851
1200
1,033,021,080
103
602246
200
120,449,160
12
9,372,163,105
937
On
Area
Buildable
On
Parking
Basement Area
On Plot Area
2440592 50
122,029,590
12.20
2440592 15
36,608,877
3.66
48,811,836
4.88
Impact
Assessment
Environment & Traffic
Approval Fees
12,202,959
1.22
183,044,385
18.30
Fees
- 2440592 5
2440592 75
On
Area
On Plot
(Land)
On
Area
On
Area
Buildable
Area
Buildable
Buildable
On Built Up Area
Other Fees/Charges
Project
Management, 3%
Administration and Supervision
Charges as % of project cost
Marketing Costs as % of
3%
construction cost during
construction period
Business
Development 2440592 8
Expenses (As per estimated
Actuals)
281,164,893
28.12
205,467,322
20.55
19,524,734
1.95
4%
36,354,184
3.64
0.25
1835908 350
642,567,744
64.26
1835908 10
18,359,078
1.84
660,926,822
66.09
Recreational Garden
Landscaping of the Recreational
Garden
Landscaping consultants Fees
Total
On
Area
Buildable
Commercial
Occupancy - 70 % to 85%
Lease Rental Rs.100/Sqft
Increase in Lease rental 20% per 3 years
Lease of Car Parking space Rs. 1000/Sqf
Residential
Base price Rs.25,000/Sqft
Floor Rise 2% in Multiples of 2 Floors
Price Escalations 15% in 2 years
Car parking space Rs.5L/No
Table-5: Revenue Forecast Statement9
Revenue Forecast Statement
Commercial
Occupancy
Lease Rentals Realisation (Monthly)
Rs /
sqft
In Rs.
In Rs. Cr.
85%
895893
100
76150944
7.62
12
913811328.8
91.38
10
9138113288
913.81
20
18276226577
1827.62
456905664.4
45.69
2378000
0.24
Lease Deposit
2378
1000
12
28536000
2.85
10
285360000
28.54
20
570720000
57.07
Commercial Development
Car Parking Lease
3000
1.4.2020
Every 3 Yrs
20%
Moratorium
Project Taxes
Income Tax
Depreciation
St Line method
WDV method
( Conservative estimate )
33.00 %
1.63 %
10%
H10
H11 H12
31.3
.19
31.3
.20
31.3
.21
10% 15%
20% 15%
10% 10%
10%
10% 10%
10% 20%
15% 15%
30%
10% 10%
H1
H2
H3
H4
23.4
.15
1.9.
15
31.3
.16
30.9
.16
31.3
.17
31.3
.18
100%
10%
10%
100%
10%
100%
50%
HY
Ending
H5
H6
H7
H8
H9
Tender Conditions
Bid Security Payment
0%
Tender Premium
Commercial Plot
Construction Cost for
Commercial Part
Construction Cost for
Residential Part
Construction Cost for
Parking Lvls/Basement
Cost of Infrastructure
Development
Approvals & Sanctioning
Fees (MCGM etc)
Architectural Consultants
Fees
Landscape Consultants
Fees
Structural Consultants
Fee
TIA & EIA Consultant
Fees
Adm, supervision & PM
cost
Marketing cost
Business Development
Expenses
Recreational Garden
Plot
50% 50%
100%
100%
40% 30%
100%
50%
10%
10%
10%
0%
0%
10%
10%
10%
10%
50% 50%
100%
100%
50%
10%
10%
100%
50%
25%
25%
5%
10%
10%
100%
5%
100%
100%
10%
100%
10%
10%
10%
10% 10%
10% 10%
10% 10%
5%
15% 10%
10% 15%
20% 20%
10%
5%
Landscaping of the
Recreational Garden
100%
Landscaping consultants
Fees
100%
50%
50%
50%
50%
10
Particulars
Area
(Sqm)
55,950
1,70,56
0
Total Area of Recreational Ground
Total Built Up Area Permissible for 2,26,51
Tower
0
B
Remarks
10.764
(Sqft)
6,02,246
18,35,908
24,38,154
7,31,446
Development Mix
Commercial Offices
67,953
1,58,55
7
0
17,06,708
0
70%
0%
Hotel
0%
Service Apartments
0%
67,953
0
7,31,446
0
68
68,021
731
7,32,178
5,102
54,913
3,401
59,450
36,609
6,39,924
5.0%
23,780
2,55,970
Factor
83,231
2,378
7
1,58,55
7
17,06,708
159
1,58,71
6
19,839
5,555
1,33,16
3
1,707
53,265
1,86,42
8
2,663
1,997
21
4,756
8,95,893
17,08,414
2,13,552
59,794
14,33,361
5,73,345
20,06,706
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40%
0
0
7,419
4,375
22,257
60%
2,39,574
5,38,032
1,50,561
3,01,123
8,60,851
Tower Configuration
Lvl 13
Residential
Commercial
Parking
Parking/Lobby
Parking/Lobby
Parking
Total Height
Total floors ( 2 basements + 37 floors)
34
Lvl 6
12
Lvl25
Lvl 1
Ground
2Basem
ent
133.2
37
H2
H3
H4
1.9.15
31.3.16 30.9.16 31.3.17
H5
H6
H7
31.3.18
H8
H9
31.3.19 0
H10
H11
H12 Total
31.3.20
31.3.21
Cost of Project
( 2015 prices)
Cost of
Construction
Commercial
Part
29%
24
24
24
35
47
35
24
24
236
Residential
Part
71%
59
59
59
59
59
117
88
88
586
Parking
Lvls/Basement
52
31
10
10
103
Infrastructure
Development
12
Landcaping of the
Recreational Garden
32
32
64
134
113
93
104
106
153
118
118
32
32
1001
18
Architectural
Consultants
Fees
12
Landscape
Consultants
Fees
Structural
Consultants
Fee
Adm,
supervision
PM cost
28
SubTotal
Other Costs
Approvals &
Sanctioning Fees
(MCGM etc)
&
Marketing cost
Bank Gurantee 1%
Fees ( Approx)
Business
Development
Expenses
17
10
10
10
103
Interest (
current prices)
10
13
16
20
24
11
12
13
129
Total
Capitalised
Costs
17
145
127
109
126
128
181
152
138
55
47
1234
Contingencies
on other costs
SubTotal
4%
21
10
Cost to be
written off
SPV
formation
SPV
annual
admn exp.,
etc
SubTotal
0.25
0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
0.50 0.50
0.50 0.50
0.50 0.50
0.50 0.50
87
18
146
170
110 215
128 320
152 356
55
Equity
84
13
103
134
80
414
Debt
42
36
30
34
34
48
38
38
13
10
331
181
95
272
114 318
42
516 1538
128 320
152 356
55
526 2283
WC Margin
Total Costs
526 2283
Means of
Finance (
2015 prices)
Revenue
surplus
reinvested.
Total Means
87
18
146
170
110 215
H1
HY Ending
>>..
0
H6 H7
H8 H9
31.3. 0
19
H2
H3
H4
H
5
H1
0
H1 1
31.3 0
.2 0
H1
2
H1 3
31.3
.2 1
10 11
12
Tot
H1
H1
H1
H1
5
7
9
4
H16
H18
H20 al
31.3.
22
13
14 15
31.3.2
3
16
31.3.2
4
17
18
31.3.2
5
19
20
Residental
Debt at
beginning
of period
41 72
98 128
160 206
0 39
52
35
31 26
31 31
46 38
39 13
11
Total
41
72 98 128 160
206 243
39 52
63
Less :
Repayment
at end of
HY
10 306
Balance at
end of
period
41
5 7
9 11
14 17
17 29
39 52
64 83
14
12 10
12 13
18 15
16
Add :
Disbursme
nts
beginning
of HY
Interest
306
14% 78
0 0
72 98 128 160
0 243
206
0 63
0 39 52
306
306
78
Commercia
l
Debt at
beginning
of period
Add :
Disbursme
nts
beginning
of HY
123
96 82
68 55
41 27 14
123
Total
17
29 39
52 64
83 98
96 82
68 55
41 27 14
0 0
Balance at
end of
period
17
29 39
2 3
7 10
Interest
86
52 64
83 98
14 14
14 14
14 14
14 14
82 68
55 41
27 14
14 123
32
1 86
13
32
1 164
14 14
14 429
Total
Interest
Payment
13 16
Total
Repayment
20 24
243
11 12
0 77 14
14 14
14 14
13
Particulars/
Heads
H3
H4
H5
H6
H7
H8
H9 H10 H11
31.3.
18
31.3.
19
31.3.
20
Unit
30.9. 31.3.
16
17
HY Ending
31.3.2
1
31.3.
22
H40 Tot
al
31.3.
35
Commercial
Occupancy
Average
Lease Rent
(Rs / Sq ft /
month)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
40%
110
110
110
110
228
0%
Car Parking
Rentals
Phasing
Lease
Deposits
Phasing
Lease
Rental
Revenue
Car Parking
Lease
Revenue
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
20%
40%
%
0
24
35
41
0.29
0.57
24
36
42
51 105 2228
24
35
41
50 104
24
12
Rs
Cr
0.86 1.14 1
34
Rs
Cr
Sub Total
Lease
Deposits lying
with
Rs
Promoter
Cr
Yearly flows
of Lease
Deposits
Residential
Average
Apartment
Price
50 104 2194
Rs/
Sqf
t
27500 27500 27500 27500 31625 31625 31625 31625 36368.75 6368.75 36368.7
5
104
0%
0%
10%
10%
0%
0%
10%
10%
730
730
6549
10
10
10
10
100
740
740
6649
776
782
6751
6029 6811
8877
Sale of
100
Apartments %
Car Parking
Spaces
Apartment
Sales
Revenue
Car Parking
Sales
Revenue
Total
Residentail
Revenue
Gross
Revenues
(Resd +
Comm)
Cummulative
Revenues
100
%
Rs
Cr.
15
15 15
15
Rs
Cr
14
Rs Cr (With Inflation)
Construction Cost
1001
1300
Other Costs
103
130
129
129
Tender Premium
1044
1044
WC margin
2283
2611
414
464
Debt
331
429
Revenue Surplus
1538
1718
Total Means
2283
2611
Cost of Project
Total Costs
Means of Finance
Project Life
NPV
Rs.185.90 crore
Rs.292 crore
Rs.302 crore
IRR
18.77%
20.4%
19.1%
MIRR
11.5%
14.1%
11.7%
Payback
Period
6.5 Years
II.
How will you calculate and consider revenue mix from residential property sales and
commercial space lease/rental income and allied sources?