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EVOLUTION

ASurpriseforEvolutioninGiantTreeofLife
Researchersbuildtheworldslargestevolutionarytreeandconcludethatspecies
arisebecauseofchancemutationsnotnaturalselection.

KatieScottforQuantaMagazine

By:EmilySinger
May5,2015

Comments(24)

oneycreepers,smallbirdsinhabitingtheHawaiianIslands,havearichassortmentofbeak
shapes.Somespecieshavelong,thinbeakssuitedtopluckinginsectsfromleaves.Others
possessthickbeaksgoodforcrackingopentoughseeds.Accordingtotheclassicviewofevolution,
naturalselectiondrovethedevelopmentofthesedifferentspecies.Eachvariantadaptedtosuita
differentecologicalniche.ButBlairHedges,abiologistatTempleUniversityinPhiladelphia,has
proposedaprovocativealternative:Adaptationhadlittletodowithit.Itwassimplyamatterof
chanceandtime.
ThiscontroversialproposalstemsfromeffortsbyHedgesandcollaboratorstobuildtheworldsmost
comprehensivetreeoflifeachartplottingtheconnectionsamong50,000speciesofEarthsvast
menagerie.Theiranalysissuggeststhatspeciationisessentiallyrandom.Nomatterwhatthelife

formplantoranimal,insectormammalittakesabout2millionyearsforanewspeciesto
form.Randomgeneticevents,notnaturalselection,playthemainroleinspeciation.
Evolutionarybiologistsfindtheresearcheffortintriguing,particularlyinitssizeandscope,butthey
arealsosomewhatskepticaloftheprovocativeideasthathaveemerged.Itsahugetourdeforce,
saidArneMooers,abiologistatSimonFraserUniversityinBritishColumbia.Therearelotsof
interestingclaimsthedevilwillbeinthedetails.
Tobuildthetree,Hedges,hisTemplecolleague
SudhirKumar,andtheircollaboratorscompiled
datafromnearly2,300publishedstudies,gleaning
fromeachthetimewhentwospeciesdivergedfrom
acommonancestor.Theyusedthosedatato
constructamapofrelationshipsamongdifferent
species,knownasatimetree.Toformabranch,
theresearchersstartedwiththetwospecieswithina
CourtesyofBlairHedges
closelyrelatedtaxonomicgroupthathavethemost
BlairHedges,abiologistatTempleUniversityin
Philadelphia,challengestheideanatural
recentcommonancestor.Thentheyaddedthenext
selectiondrivesthedevelopmentofnew
closestspecies,andsoon.(Inafamilytree,thats
species.
akintostartingwithsiblings,thenaddinginfirst
cousinsandsecondcousins.)Bringingallthose
branchestogetherresultsinacomprehensivetimetreeoflife.
Itsanastonishinglylargeexercisetheyvedone,saidMichaelBenton,apaleontologistatthe
UniversityofBristolinEngland.Manypeopleinthefieldwouldbeunabletodothat.
Itwilltakesometimeforscientiststosortthroughthetechnicaldetailsofthepaper,whichwas
publishedinAprilinthejournalMolecularBiologyandEvolution.Andwhilesomescientistshave
beencomplimentary,othersimmediatelychallengedtheresults,questioningboththeaccuracyofthe
treeandtheconclusionsthatHedgeshasdrawn.Iamveryskepticalaboutinferringpatternsof
speciationfromsuchabroadoverviewofthetreeoflife,saidChrisJiggins,abiologistatthe
UniversityofCambridgeinEngland.
SpeciesEnigma
OnereasonscientistsareskepticalisthatHedgesclocklikepatternconflictswiththetraditional
pictureofhowevolutionunfolds.Theclassicviewofevolutionisthatithappensinfitsandstarts,
Bentonsaid.Achangeintheenvironment,suchasariseintemperaturesafteraniceage,might
sparkaburstofspeciationasorganismsadapttotheirnewsurroundings.Alternatively,asingle

remarkableadaptationsuchasflightintheancestorsofbirdsorhairinmammalsmighttriggera
massiveexpansionofanimalswiththosecharacteristics.
Hedgesarguesthatwhilesuchburstsdooccur,thevastmajorityofspeciationismoreprosaicand
evenlytimed.Tostart,twopopulationsbecomeseparated,drivenapartbygeographyorotherfactors.
Newspeciesemergeevery2millionyears,onaverage,inametronomicrhythmtappedoutbythe
randomnatureofgeneticmutations.Helikenstheprocesstoradioactivedecay.Itsimpossibleto
predictwhenanindividualradioactivenucleuswilldecay,butaclumpofmanyatomswilldecayat
ahighlypredictablerateknownasthematerialshalflife.Similarly,mutationsstrikethegenome
randomly,butoveralongenoughtimetheaccumulationofmutationsfollowsapattern.Thereisa
kindofspeciationclocktickingalong,Hedgessaid.

THE SPECIES CLOCK

Number of s pecies (s caled)

New species appear at a remarkably consistent rate across the natural world.

0
T ime (in millions of years )

Arthropods

10

Plants

20

Vertebrates
EmilyFuhrmanforQuantaMagazine

Inthisinteractiveinfographic,threelinestracehowfrequentlyorganismsspeciateovertime.Acrossthenatural
worldinvertebrates,arthropodsandplantsnewspeciesmostoftenariseafteralittlemorethan2million
years.Thisconsistencysuggeststosomeresearchersthatrandomgeneticmutationsratherthannaturalselection
drivethedevelopmentofnewspecies.

ConsiderHawaiishoneycreepers.Thespeciationclockstartedoncethebirdsmigratedtoanew
islandandbegantoaccumulaterandommutations.Thevastmajorityofthesemutationswere
neutral,havingnoeffectonthebirdsappearanceorbehavior.Occasionallyabeneficialmutation
appeared,suchasonethatmadethebeaklongeranditsbeareramoreefficienthunter.Accordingto
thetraditionalmodelofspeciation,theadaptationseventuallymadethetwopopulationstoo
differenttointerbreedeveniftheyweretocomebackintocontact.Inthisscenario,adaptationsdrive
thecreationofanewspecies.
ButHedgescontendsthatspeciationandadaptationaretwodistinctprocesses,eachproceeding
alongitsownpath.(AteamledbyMarkPagel,anevolutionarybiologistattheUniversityof
ReadinginEngland,hasmadeasimilarproposal,thoughfordifferentreasons.)Accordingto
Hedgesmodel,afterabout2millionyearsthetwogroupsofbirdsaccruedsomanyrandomgenetic
differencesthattheybecameincompatible.Itwasntadaptivemutationsthatmadeitimpossiblefor
thebirdstointermingle,butrathertheaccumulationofenoughmutationsoverall,mostofthem
neutralones.Geographicisolationprovidedthenecessarysparkforspeciation,butsimpletimedrove
theprocesstoitsconclusion.
TangledTrees
TheseedforHedgestreesprouted17yearsago,whenheandKumarbeganassemblingadatabaseof
speciesdivergencethetimewhentwospeciessplitfromacommonancestor.Butitwasntuntil
recentlythattheresearchersdevelopedamethodcapableofsynthesizingthecollectionofdatainto
onegrandtreeoflife.
HedgesconvenedasmallconferenceonbiologicaldiversityatTemplelastmonth,whereheand
otherspresentedtheirwork.ManyintheaudiencewereeagertoapplytechniquesthatHedgesand
histeamhaddeveloped,particularlyanefficientmethodforidentifyingdatesontrees.Itbecamea
runningjokethatwehadallspentyearsofcomputertimebuildingourowndatedtreeswhenwe
couldhavedoneitamilliontimesfasterusingtheirapproach,Mooerssaid.

IstheEarthFull?
Onlysomanypeoplecansafelyfitonanairplaneoncetheseatsarefilled,theresnomore
room.Isthisalsothecasefortheplanet?CanEarthsecologicalnichesbefilledtocapacity?A
numberofstudiespublishedoverthepastfewyearssuggestthattheanswerisyes.Theyfound
thattherateatwhichnewspeciesareformingisslowingdown,implyingthattherehasnotbeen
roomfornewvariantstoexpandandtakeroot.ButHedgesteamsawnoevidenceforthis.We
foundthatoverall,theratehasbeenconstantforalmostthewholehistoryoflife,Hedgessaid.In
addition,pastpatternsmaynothavemuchbearingonthefuture.Inrecentyears,extinctionrates

haveskyrocketedto1,000to10,000timesthenaturallevel,farsurpassingtherateatwhichnew
speciesevolve.Eveniftheworldisfull,humanactivitymaybeopeningnewniches.

Buttherewasanundercurrentofdoubtbeneaththeexcitement.Buildingphylogenetictrees,let
alonegiantones,isaprocessfraughtwithdisagreement.Whilescientistshavebeenconstructing
themfortwodecades,itsonlyinthelastfiveyearsthattheyhavebeenabletobuildlargetreeswith
morethanathousandspecies.Thestructureofatreecanvarydependingonthedatathatgointoit
andthemethodsusedtoassembleit.Toconstructacomprehensivetreebasedonthousandsof
individualstudies,Hedgesteamhadtofigureouthowtodealwithtreesbuiltusingverydifferent
methods.Anylittlebiasesinthestudiesgoingincanpercolateupandbeamplified,Mooerssaid
aproblemforanystudyencompassingthousandsofspecies.
Whatsmore,manyofthedatesinthesetreesareuncertainorconflicting.Estimatesforwhentwo
speciessplitmightrangefrom3millionto8millionyearsago,andthescientistshavetodecide
whichfiguretouse.Alotofobjectivedecisionshavetobemade,Hedgessaid.Youhaveto
reconciledifferencesandsomehowputthemtogetherinonesingleconsensus.
Hedgestreealsoexcludesgroupsforwhichnogeneticdataareavailable,acategorythatincludes
manyorganismsthathavegoneextinct.Paleobiologistssaythischoicecanskewtheoutcome.For
example,excludingextinctspeciesfromtheanalysiscanmakeitlookasthoughthenumberof
speciesisincreasingevenwhenitsnot,saidCharlesMarshall,apaleobiologistattheUniversityof
California,Berkeley.

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ScientistsareexploringhoworganismscanevolveelaboratestructureswithoutDarwinianselection.

Thedeeppatternswillrequirealotoftechnicalevaluation,Mooerssaid.Youcandisagreewith
onehalfofthepaperandstillfindalottodiscussandagreewith.Already,someresearchersare
questioningthebasicresults.Manyofthegeologicalagesofthenodesdontmatchwhatscientists
havegleanedfromthefossilrecordorfromsmallertrees,Marshallsaid.
Inaddition,somescientistsdisagreewithoneofthemainconclusionsoftheanalysisthatawide
varietyofspeciesseemtoevolveonatimescaleofroughly2millionyears.EvenHedgeswas
surprisedbythefinding,giventheenormousdifferencesbetween,say,awaspandawhale.One
hundredgenerationsofinsectsmightpassinthelifetimeofamammal,soonemightexpectthe
formertodevelopnewspeciesmorequickly.Hedgesconcludedthattheydont.Therearehuge
biologicalandecologicaldifferencesinthesegroups,hesaid.Andyetspeciationtimeisvery
similar.
Thisfindingcontradictspreviousstudies,whichshowedlargedifferencesinhowquicklynewspecies
develop.Ourworkshowsthatratesofspeciationareindeedconstantwithingroupsoforganisms,
suchaswithinbumblebees,thistlesordogs,saidPagel,butthatspeciationratescanvaryamong
groups.
Hedgesmaintainsthatconstantspeciationtimesaredrivenbytherelativelyconstantpaceofgenetic
mutationsacrossthenaturalworld.ButitspossiblethatHedgesconsistentspeciationratesresult
fromaveragingdifferentratesacrossarangeoforganisms,Bentonsaid.Tosuggestakindof
regularpatternisonepeoplewillfindquitechallenging,hesaid.Iseewheretheygetitfrom,but
Ithinkthereareotherpossibleexplanations.
Whileresearchersdebatetheirfindings,Hedgesgroupisalreadyworkingonanevenbiggertree
onewithperhapshalfamillionoftheroughly1.5millionknownspecies.Thatwillgiveusamore
accuratepictureoftheevolutionoflifeandhowbiodiversitywillchangeinthefuturefromhuman
activities,Hedgessaid.
ThisarticlewasreprintedonWired.com.

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