Models for Predicting Apple Diameter by Using Growing-Degree Days,

Cultivar Royal Gala

S. O. Ortega-Faras and L. Len
Centro de Investigacin y Transferencia en Riego y Agroclimatologa (CITRA)
Dpto de Produccin Agrcola
Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias
Universidad de Talca
Casilla 747-Talca
Chile
Key words: fruit growth, logistic model, apple diameter
Abstract
Several models have been developed elsewhere for apple fruit growth in
order to predict harvest and aid marketing management, but models are not
available for local growing conditions in Chile. For this reason, apple diameter was
investigated during two growing seasons (1999/00 and 2000/01) to develop models
for predicting apple size (cv. Royal Gala) in the Region of Maule, Chile. Models for
predicting apple diameter as a function of growing-degree days were developed for
5 commercial orchards, using the logistic model. Results indicate that the logistic
model was able to predict apple size with a determination coefficient (r2) of 0.99.
There was also a good association between fruit fresh weight and fruit diameter (r2
= 0.99).
INTRODUCTION
In Chile, fruit size has become increasingly important in apple production due to
minimum size requirements for obtaining adequate prices in the international market.
Thus, it is important to predict final size of apples at an early stage of the growing period
and to establish adequate orchard management to produce fruit of economically desired
sizes. For this reason, apple fruit growth has been extensively studied to examine the
influence of growing conditions, rootstocks, and/or cultivars on fruit sizes (Schechter et
al., 1993).
Several factors affect fruit size such as cell number, cell size, intercellular spaces,
rate of cell division, time and severity of thinning, temperature, irrigation, and stress
(Westwood, 1978). Thus, specific fruit growth curves are required for particular soil,
climate, cultivar, and orchard management conditions. Several models have been
developed elsewhere for pome fruit growth to predict harvest and aid marketing
management (Batjer et al., 1957; Lakso et al., 1995; Ortega et al., 1998; Williams et al.,
1969), but no models for predicting apple size (cv. Royal Gala) are available for local
growing conditions in Chile.
Given this situation, the objective of the present research was to develop models
for predicting final fruit size in apples (cv. Royal Gala) as a function of growing-degree
days in the Region of Maule, Chile.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Fruit diameters were recorded during two growing seasons (1999/00 and 2000/01)
in 5 commercial orchards, located in Region of Maule ( between 34 and 35 S; 71 W).
The Royal Gala trees were on either MM 106 or P. Communis rootstocks and planted at a

distance of 2.5 m x 4.0 m. Each commercial orchard received a similar recommended

management program, including fruit thinning, fertilization, and pest control. The
climate in the area is Mediterranean with dry summers and soils range from sandy loam
to clay loam with a depth between 40-80 cm.
At each orchard, 5 trees per hectare were chosen and 10 fruits per tree were
randomly tagged at 2 m height around the tree. Diameter measurements were taken on
tagged fruit every week from 40 days after full bloom (DAFB) until harvest. At the same
time, fruit of different sizes were collected from trees with similar crop load to estimate
fruit fresh weight (FFW) as a function of fruitdiameter.
To develop the standard growth curve, the logistic model was used as follows
(Thornley and Johnson, 1990):

De =

A
B + C e GDD

(1)

where De = estimated apple diameter (mm); A, B, C = empirical factors of the logistic

model; = specific growth rate (C-1); GDD = growing-degree days (C). The GDD
were calculated using hourly temperature data collected from a network of 15 automated
weather stations. Accumulative GDD above 10 C base temperature were calculated
starting at full bloom.
To estimate the fruit fresh weight, a simple exponential model was used as follows
(Bramardi et al., 1998):
FFWe = Do

(2)

where FFWe = estimated fruit fresh weight (gr); and = empirical factors; Do =
observed apple diameter (mm).

The data set from the 1999/2000 growing season was used to obtain the logistic
models and coefficients of determination (r2) for each commercial orchard. The data set
from the 2000/2001 season was used for the validation of these models. Standard errors
of estimate (SEE), Z-tests to check whether the ratio b of observed (Do) and estimated
(De) diameter was significantly different from unity at the 95 % confidence level and
relative error (Ea) were all used to evaluate equation 1.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The empirical factors (A,B, and C), specific growth rate (), and coefficients of
determination (r2) for the logistic models are shown in Table 1. This table indicates that
there was a good association (overall value of r 2 = 0.99) between apple diameter and
growing-degree days (GDD) in all commercial orchards during the growing season
1999/2000. Specific growth rates were similar, but empirical factors were different at
each location. In this study, final fruit diameters ranged from 68 mm to 78 mm and GDD
from full bloom to harvest were about 995 C (Figure 1).

The exponential model to predict fruit fresh weight as a function of apple

diameter is illustrated in Figure 2. There was a good agreement between observed
(FFWo) and estimated (FFWe) values of fruit fresh weight for apple diameters ranging
between 20 mm (4.5 gr.) and 80 mm (231gr.). Empirical factors and for the equation
2 were 0.0009 and 2.839, respectively. In this case, the SEE value was 9.5 and r2 was
equal to 0.98.
The overall comparison between estimated (De) and observed (Do) diameter
using GDD for the growing season 2000/2001 is indicated in Figure 3. The major
departure from the line 1:1 line was observed for diameters ranging between 35 and 55
mm. Results of the Z-test suggest that the overall value of b was not significantly greater
than one at the 95 % confidence level, and that De tended to be larger than Do. In this
case, values of Ea and SEE were 5 % and 0.58 mm, respectively. Main disagreements
between estimated and observed diameters were found between 200 GDD and 500 GDD,
while the best fits were near harvest.
This result agreed with Ortega-Farias and Flores (1998), who indicated that the
logistic model was able to predict apple sizes (cv. Granny Smith) as a function of GDD,
with r2 values ranging from 0.92 to 0.97. This study also indicates that errors between
observed and estimated diameters decrease as the season advances; the largest errors
were found between 100 GDD and 200 GDD, while the smallest (2 %) were detected
near harvest (1200 GDD). Batjer et al. (1957) (apple, Delicious) and Ortega-Farias et al.
(1998) (pears, Packhams Triumph) also indicated that the closer to harvest the sample is
taken, the more accurate the final size prediction.
As in other studies, the conditions under which this research were conducted
should be kept in mind (Batjer et al., 1957). All trees received regular irrigation and
were kept under optimum growing conditions. The high r 2 values obtained in this study
(Table 1) do not necessarily mean that logistic models can be performed with the desired
accuracy under diverse orchard conditions and seasons. Bramardi et al. (1998) indicated
that the particular characteristics of orchards and climate conditions during the seasons
(year effects) must be considered when using the logistic growth curve or a standard
harvest size prediction table.
In Chile, El Nio/Southern oscillation (ENSO cycle) has produced a large
variation in the climate and growing conditions. The system oscillates between warm (El
Nio) to neutral or cold (La Nia) conditions with an irregular interval that averages 3 to
4 years. Gonzlez (1995) indicated that the warm and cold phase could increase and
reduce the GDD, respectively. For this reason, we believe that the GDD could be a good
input variable for models that predict final fruit sizes for apple. Research is continuing to
test models for other growing areas and cultivars.
CONCLUSIONS
This study indicates that logistic models were able to predict final fruit size with
errors less than 5 % and standard errors of estimate (SEE) of 0.58 mm. Main
disagreements between estimated and observed diameters were between 200 GDD and
500 GDD, while the best fits were detected near harvest. There was a good association
between the fruit fresh weight and apple diameter (SEE = 9.5 gr; r2 = 0.99).
Literature Cited
Batjer, L.P., Billingsley, H.D., Westwood, M.N. and Rogers, B.L., 1957. Predicting
harvest size of apples at different times during the growing season. Proc. Am. Soc.
Hort. Sci., 70:46-57.

Bramardi, S.J., Castro, H.R. and Zenelli, M.L., 1998. Fruit growth pattern of pear cv.
Bartlett and Packhams Triumph to improve hand thinning. Acta Horticulturae: 475:
238-293.
Gonzlez, P., 1995. Influencia de fenmeno del Nio-Oscilacin del sur en la
acumulacin de grados-dia y horas de fro. Revista Frutcola, 16:27-35.
Lakso, A.N., Corelli Grappadelli, L., Barnard, J. and Goffinet, M.C., 1995. An
expolinear model of the growth pattern of the apple fruit. J. of Horticultural
Science 70:389-394
Ortega-Farias, S., Flores, L.A., y Retamales, J., 1998. Models for predicting fruit
diameter of Packhams Triumph pears. Acta Horticulturae: 475:295-301.
Ortega-Farias, S. and Flores., 1998. Models for predicting fruit diameter of apple by
using heat units. 23rd Conf. on Agricultural and Forest Met., Albuquerque, New
Mexico. 66-68.
Schechter, I., Proctor, J.T.,, and Elfving, D. C., 1993. Reappraisal of seasonal apple fruit
growth. Can. J. Plant Sci., 73:549-556.
Thornley, J. H. and I.R. Johnson., 1990. Plant and crop modelling; A mathematical
approach to plant and crop physiology. Clarendon Press, Oxford. 669 p.
Westwood, M., 1978. Temperate-Zone Pomology. W.H. Freeman and Company, New
York 428 p.
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Tables

Table 1. Empirical factors (A,B, and C), specific growth rate () and coefficient of
determination (r2) for the logistic model (Early harvest, cv. Royal Gala).
Commercial
Orchards
A
B
C
D
E
Average

2835
2280
3042
3145
2400
2740.4

35
30
39
37
32
34.6

122.4
92.09
134.6
122.4
87.5
111.8

(1/C)
0.0037
0.0035
0.0039
0.0035
0.0034
0.0036

r2
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.98
0.99
0.99

Figures

90

Diameter (mm)

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
100

300

500

700

900

1100

GDD (C)

Fig. 1. Apple fruit growth (cv. Royal Gala) as a function of GDD during the 1999-2000
growing season.

FFW (gr)

250
200
150
100
50
0
0

20

40
60
Apple Diameter (mm)

FFWo

80

FFWe

Fig. 2. Estimated (FFWe) and observed (FFWo) fruit fresh weight for cv. Royal Gala as
a function of fruit diameter.

Estimated (mm)

80
70
60
50
40
30
30

40

50
60
Observed (mm)

70

80

Fig. 3. Observed and estimated apple diameters (cv. Royal Gala) for the 2000-2001
growing season.