T he Futur e of Global Oil

Suppl y: Under standing the

Building Blocks

Presentation for the World Federation of Scientists

August 2009 • Erice, Sicily

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© 2009, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
 22

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 33
Highlights

No unique answers: complex multi-component system

CERA projects strong growth of productive capacity through 2030
No ‘peak’, but onset of undulating plateau soon after 2030
Not yet a question of reserve/resource availability
Above ground factors—deliverability, geopolitics, global economy
Market dynamics will remain highly volatile
Upstream industry faces some major challenges

© 2009, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
 44
W here Is the Wor ld Today and in W hich
Dir ection Is It Moving?

Source: IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

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 55
Global Liquids Capacity Outlook to
2030— W hat’s the Pr oblem? (Reference Case)

140

120

100 YTF
Million
Barrels 80 FUA
per FUD
Day 60
FIP
40

20
Others
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
90509-3

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 66
Oil Price Pressures in 2009

US Dollar Appreciation
Global Oil
Demand Decline Global Economic
Contraction

High
Spare Capacity High
Inventories

OPEC Supply Cuts

Source: IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

90204-1

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 77
Key Assumptions and Suppor ting
Studies

Demand, oil price, investment patterns and technology

OPEC vs Non OPEC exploitation strategies

Geopolitics

Oilfield performance – decline rates

Giant field contribution

Definition and scale of reserves

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 88
Wor ld Liquids Discover y and Pr oduction

160

140 OPEC Liquids Discovery

Non-OPEC Liquids Discovery
120 Liquids Production

100 Historical discoveries in

Billion all current OPEC countries
Barrels 80
(excludes Gabon and Indonesia)

60

40

20

0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

90509-25

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 99
Global Resource Upg r ade Histor y 2004-
2008
Annual Production

45 Resource Growth in Prior

Discoveries
40
New-field Discoveries in Year
35

30

25
bnb
20

15

10

0
2004 prod'n 2005 2006 2007 2008

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 1010
Undulating Plateau vs Peak—Schematic

Reference Case Liquids

Capacity (IHS CERA 2009)
140 Undulating
Conventional Crude Plateau
Capacity (IHS CERA 2009)
120
Peak–Campbell 2002
2.4 trillion
barrels
100 Unconventional Oil post 2010

Million 80
1.9 trillion
Barrels barrels
per Conventional Oil post 2010
Day 60 Historical
Production
( 1.1 trillion
40 barrels 0.9 trillion
cumulative) barrels
post 2010
20

0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Source: IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

609-7-9_2107

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 1111
Conclusions

Recent oil production drop is not ‘peak oil’

Economics still works—shock absorber
Rate of change of each of supply and demand
Total energy inventory balance changing - energy security, climate
change, economic factors
Peak demand— USA, Japan, OECD

© 2009, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
If you have any questions about this presentation or
IHS CERA in general, please feel free to contact
Peter Jackson,
Senior Director
+44 1732 465316
pjackson@cera.com

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