Mtodo Aritmtico

Pob. De Diseo

Ao
Poblacin
1961
4771
1972
6318
1981
7796
1993
11815
2007
16035
_=
2031
=_+(_ )=

=(_(+1)_)/(_(+1)_ )
140.64
164.22
334.92
301.43
235.30
21683

Mtodo Inters Simple

Pob. De Diseo

=
r (_(+1)_)/(_ (_(+1)_))

Ao
Poblacin
1961
4771
1972
6318
1981
7796
1993
11815
2007
16035
_=
2031
=_ (1+(_ ))=

0.0295
0.0260
0.0430
0.0255
0.0310
27960

Mtodo Geomtrico

Pob. De Diseo

Ao
Poblacin
1961
4771
1972
6318
1981
7796
1993
11815
2007
16035
2031
_=
=_ ^(_ )=

=(_(+1)_&_(+1)/_ )
1.026
1.024
1.035
1.022
1.027
30180

Mtodo de la Parbola

Pob. De Diseo

Ao
1981
1993
2007
2031

0
144
676

Poblacin
7796
11815
16035

0
12
26

t
0
12
26
50
= ^2++
1
A
1
B
1
C
A
B

C
= ^2++
Reemplazando en
_2031=
22095
Mtodo de los Incrementos Variables

Pob. De Diseo

Ao
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007
2031

Poblacin
4771
6318
7796
11815
16035

2P
1547
1478
4019
4220
2816

-69
2541
201
891

2.4

_2031=

24291

Mtodo de los Mnimos Cuadrados

AO
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007
Total
Promedio

Xi (pob)
4771
6318
7796
11815
16035
30700
7675

Yi (%)
32.43
23.39
51.55
35.72

log Yi
1.5109
1.3691
1.7122
1.5529

143.09
35.77

6.1451
1.5363

A. HIPTESIS ARITMTICA:

1.0000
1.0000

7,675.0000
8,568.4497

9.59
0.00

-8.59
0.00

X2/X =
XY/X =
a
b

a=
b=

B. HIPTESIS GEOMTRICA:

1.0000
1.0000

7,675.0000
8,568.4497

9.59
0.00

-8.59
0.00

X2/X =
X*LogY/X =
A
B

=
A=
B=

a=
b=
C. POBLACIN FUTURA:
Aos
Poblacin
posteriores
Ao
al censo Aritmtico
Geomtrico
2,007.00
2,007.00
16,035.00
16,035.00
2,031.00
2,031.00
23,149.73
23,286.03
Metodo de la Parbola Cbica
Ao
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007

Pob. De Diseo

2031

Poblacin
4771
6318
7796
11815
16035
46735

x=

x
0
1.1
2
3.2
4.6
10.90

x2
0
1.21
4.00
10.24
21.16
36.61

2031
2031
2031
2031
2031
2031
2031
2031

21683
27960
30180
22095
24291
23149
23286
30570

_)/(_(+1)_ )

)/(_ (_(+1)_))

_&_(+1)/_ )

Matriz Inversa
0.0032051282 -0.005952381 0.002747253
-0.121794872 0.154761905 -0.032967033
1
0
0

7796
11815
16035
-1.29
350.37

=
7796
para t = 50

Xi2
2.2762E+07
3.9917E+07
6.0778E+07
1.3959E+08

XiYi
1.5470E+05
1.4780E+05
4.0190E+05
4.2200E+05

Xi log Yi
7.2084E+03
8.6499E+03
1.3349E+04
1.8347E+04

2.6305E+08
6.5763E+07

1.1264E+06
2.8160E+05

4.7554E+04
1.1889E+04

8,568.4497
36.6906
35.7720
36.6906
27.8812
1.0281E-03
8,568.4497
1.5490
1.5363
1.5490
1.4270
1.4242E-05

26.7281
3.2793E-05

Crecimiento por Dcada

Incremento por Dcada
Aritmtico
Geomtrico
Aritmtico
Geomtrico
44.37
45.22
7,114.73
7,251.03

x3
0
1.33
8.00
32.77
97.34
139.44

x4
0
1.46
16.00
104.86
447.75
570.07

5
10.90
36.61
139.44
0.8492668812
-0.506472085
0.0012665792
0.0159776373

x5
0
1.61
32.00
335.54
2059.63
2428.78

10.90
36.61
36.61
139.44
139.44
570.07
570.07
570.07
Matriz Inversa
-0.634699374 0.10084778
0.643927916 -0.125839355
-0.006371263 0.003767858
-0.025905013 0.005231605

_2031=

x6
0
1.77
64.00
1073.74
9474.30
10613.81

xy
0
6949.80
15592.00
37808.00
73761.00
134110.80

x2y
0
7644.78
31184.00
120985.60
339300.60
499114.98

a1
a2
a3
a4

139.44
570.07
2428.78
10613.81
-0.000144501
0.000864381
-0.000536647
7.85127E-005

a1
a2
a3
a4

30570
32000
31000

30570
30180

30000
29000
28000

27960

27000
26000

Poblacion

Column E

25000
24291

24000
23000

23286
23149

22000

22095
21683

21000
20000
2000

2005

2010

2015
Ao 2020

2025

2030

2035

=
=
=
=

24291

24000
23000

23286
23149

22000

22095
21683

21000
20000
2000

2005

2010

2015
Ao 2020

2025

2030

2035

x3y
0
8409.26
62368.00
387153.92
1560782.76
2018713.94

46735
134110.80
499114.98
2018713.94
4613.38
1624.35
2.00
42.24

grafico
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007

4771
6318
7796
11815
16035