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Article history:
Received 14 March 2013
Received in revised form 19 November 2014
Accepted 17 January 2015
Available online xxxx
Keywords:
Creative industries
Creative economy
Digital
Convergence
Media
Entertainment
Scenario
Foresight
Futures studies
Technological impact
Competences
Skills
Work
Microfoundations
Human capital resource
Strategic human resources
a b s t r a c t
Many foresight studies concentrate on technological foresight and its impact at the organizational
level. However, often these studies overlook the soft factor of employee competences which is
critical to adopting technological and organizational changes and to developing the necessary
innovation capabilities. This study investigates the theoretical and methodological underdeveloped relationship between technological innovation and social initiated change and the impact on
individual competences in a dynamic sector. The setting of our study is the turbulent creative
industries as a whole, where creative and artistic expression merges with changing technological
progress. In a scenario study we mainly conducted in 2010, we developed a scenario model for
competences to combine individual competences with a scenario approach to investigate how
competences are important to the sector shift or need to be enhanced in the future. We use
primary qualitative data from expert interviews and workshops and secondary data from industry
reports to identify thirty-seven influence factors. An influence matrix calculation and a cluster
analysis are used to project three different scenarios presenting how future developments of the
creative industries will influence the competences needed for creative occupations. Now, five
years later, we reflect the accuracy of the developed scenarios via a comparison of today's
situation with the situation in the scenarios. We discuss theoretical contributions for the foresight
literature and practical implementations for the future of work in general, and in particular for the
creative industries case.
2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Foresight studies use various levels of analysis to explain
changes and impacts to forecast market and technological
developments with the aim of initiating a long-term strategy
development process. But in foresight studies, the individual
level is often neglected in terms of how employees' and
managers' competences and skills must be developed to cope
Corresponding author. Tel.: +49 331 977 4500; fax: +49 331 977 3425.
E-mail addresses: Martin.Kamprath@ime.uni-potsdam.de (M. Kamprath),
Dana.Mietzner@th-wildau.de (D. Mietzner).
1
Tel.: +49 3375 508 199; fax: +49 3375 508 884.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
0040-1625/ 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article as: Kamprath, M., Mietzner, D., The impact of sectoral changes on individual competences: A reective
scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
M. Kamprath, D. Mietzner / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2015) xxxxxx
Please cite this article as: Kamprath, M., Mietzner, D., The impact of sectoral changes on individual competences: A reective
scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
M. Kamprath, D. Mietzner / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2015) xxxxxx
Please cite this article as: Kamprath, M., Mietzner, D., The impact of sectoral changes on individual competences: A reective
scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
M. Kamprath, D. Mietzner / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2015) xxxxxx
the individual level (e.g., skills, processes, procedures, organizational structures, and decision rules) as a valuable source of a
firm's competitive advantage and therefore takes a contrasting
or mediating position to the more dominant organizational
focus in strategy, innovation and foresight literature (Felin
et al., 2012; Mollick, 2012; Turner and Makhija, 2012; Goepel
et al., 2012). Based on resource-based theory (Barney, 1991;
Barney and Clark, 2007) and micro-foundations the human
capital resource perspective (HCR) provides a common ground
for researchers from strategic management and strategic
human resource management (Chadwick and Dabu, 2008).
Both streams are interested in how firms create a valuable HCR
and how that resource uniquely relates to unit performance of a
firm in a certain context (Nyberg et al., 2014). Here, human
capital is defined as a unit-level resource that is created from
the emergence of individuals' knowledge, skills, abilities, and
other characteristics (KSAOs) (Ployhart and Moliterno, 2011,
p. 128). In their multilevel model of human capital resource
emergence, Ployhart and Moliterno (2011) present a theoretical approach to unite the micro- and the macro-level to explain
how HCR is created and transformed across organizational
levels. It links research on employee KSAO to individual-level
outcomes with organizational theorists and strategy scholars
who study how the aggregate organizational-level experience,
education, and skills of employees form resources. In this sense,
the HCR lens combines the more strategic top-down
perspective of which and how organizational processes create
HCR as a strategic asset, with the human resource management
bottom-up perspective of how HR policies and practices
affect HCR (Nyberg et al., 2014). For this study, both
perspectives are of equal importance. The strategic perspective
theorizes that employees or managers are strategic resources
to respond to industry-specific conditions of the firm's
environment (Lado and Wilson, 1994). Training and (strategic)
human resource management literature argues in this context
that the ability of the individual to learn and react is both
directly and indirectly a trigger of the firm's ability to use and, if
necessary, shift its resources (Ployhart, 2006; Wright et al.,
2001; Becker and Huselid, 2006; Bergenhenegouwen et al.,
1997; Clardy, 2008).
Especially in highly competitive and fast-changing markets
with knowledge-intensitive products and services, this microperspective as a competitive resource on the organizational
level is important. To achieve their goals in this complex and
dynamic environment, managers and employees are faced
with a high degree of uncertainty. They must adapt the actions
of teams or organizations to unpredictable situations by relying
only on their former experience (Amadi-Echendu, 2007). The
successful coping with such situations depends on the ability of
individuals to develop as well as adapt their behavior,
knowledge base, and actions, which in return enables firms to
develop human resources successfully as a sustained competitive advantage (Heyse and Erpenbeck, 2009; Wright et al.,
1994). This ability is described with the concept of competences
which by some authors is interchangeably used with skills
(Staudt, 2002). But we follow the prominent literature stream
where knowledge, skills and abilities form competences
(Sandberg, 2000). The concept bridges the gap between
education and job requirements (Boon and van der Klink,
2002) but at the same time it creates confusion because of
the fuzzy distinction between the terms competence and
Please cite this article as: Kamprath, M., Mietzner, D., The impact of sectoral changes on individual competences: A reective
scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
M. Kamprath, D. Mietzner / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2015) xxxxxx
(Cunningham, 2011; Higgs and Cunningham, 2008) conceptualize the creative trident and derive three groups of professions related to creative work: (1) specialist creatives (in the
creative industries); (2) embedded creatives (in other industries), which represent the total employment in creative
occupations; and (3) support workers who are employed in
creative industries but mainly perform support work for the
specialist creative. Recent statistical data for Great Britain and
Australia have shown that creative economy employment is
now a highly significant and growing component of the
workforce as a whole economy that leads to the majority of
creative professionals working outside the creative industries
(e.g., designers, software developers, communication specialists
in manufacturing firms) (Cunningham, 2011; Bakhshi et al.,
2013).
Hence, we refer with this study to the literature on creative
labor and address, in particular, the industry focus on creative
industries as a dynamic and vibrant environment caused by
intensive interaction of cultural aspects and technological
developments. Although the term is viewed as incoherent (for
a discussion see Flew and Cunningham, 2010) for this study, we
refer to the definition of the UNCTAD (UNCTAD, 2010) and EU
(KEA European Affairs, Turku School of Economics, and MKW
Wirtschaftsforschung, 2006). In particular, we refer to the subsectors that are more creative than cultural and which are
mainly influenced by technology: publishing, music, film,
video, broadcasting, advertising, design, and interactive
media. However, we are convinced that the methods and
findings also apply to any creative occupations independently
from their sectoral affiliation.
3.2.1. Digitalization and working conditions in the creative
industries
Constant and radical changes due to new technologies,
services, and business models continually shape labor markets
in digital creative industries. Digitalization and therefore new
forms of digital innovations (Yoo et al., 2012; Fichman et al.,
2014) change the traditional business models and value chains
(Rling and Duymedjian, 2014; iestad and Bugge, 2014;
Rothmann and Koch, 2014). Many companies still struggle, but
the cognitive lock-ins seem to be more rigid than technological
ones (Mangematin et al., 2014). To keep pace, companies in
this sector see the competences of their employees and
freelancers as the main resource for exploring new areas,
which seem promising for further revenue streams, or they
outsource different activities to specialized providers for costcutting reasons (Albarran, 2004, p. 301). The distinctiveness of
the creative industries also leads to special working conditions
based on fast-changing technological influences (see Deuze,
2009b) and the permanent balance between commercial and
creative interests (Roberts, 2010; Picard, 2005). New forces of
change lead to new ways of doing business and enhancing
creativity, which in turn influences the work of creative
professionals (Deuze, 2009b). Users become part of the
production or product innovation processes, connectivity
becomes a new dimension for successful media offers (next to
the traditional content, creativity, and commerce), and more
and more companies in this sector offshore, subcontract and
outsource various elements of the production process to save
costs and to distribute risks. These creative clusters contribute
to a shift away from states and national territories to a globally
Please cite this article as: Kamprath, M., Mietzner, D., The impact of sectoral changes on individual competences: A reective
scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
M. Kamprath, D. Mietzner / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2015) xxxxxx
Please cite this article as: Kamprath, M., Mietzner, D., The impact of sectoral changes on individual competences: A reective
scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
M. Kamprath, D. Mietzner / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2015) xxxxxx
Please cite this article as: Kamprath, M., Mietzner, D., The impact of sectoral changes on individual competences: A reective
scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
M. Kamprath, D. Mietzner / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2015) xxxxxx
Table 1
Discussion of individual competences in the creative industries.
Authors
Unit of analysis
Operationalization of competences in CI
Research eld
Artistic competences
Managerial competences
Technological competences
Strategy and
innovation
(Service) innovation
Multi-skilling competence
Multi-platform skills
Diagonal thinking
IP and monetization of multi-platform content
Learning and development skills
Sales and marketing
Business skills, management and leadership skills,
entrepreneurial skills
Broadcast engineering
Archiving
Finance skills
Technical skills
Set or crafts skills
Production skills
Creative talent
Software skills
Innovation/education
of professional
competences
Creative labor
(creative-commercial
tensionperspective)
Key skills
Communication skills
Team skills
Problem-solving skills
Initiative and enterprise skills
Planning and organizing skills
Self-management skills
Learning skills and technology skills
Personal attributes
Positive self-esteem
Motivation
Adaptability
Personal
Presentation
Employer demand
Job-specic skills
Business skills
Career goals/planning skills
Software skills
Human resource
development
Human resource
development
Haukka (2011)
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scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
M. Kamprath, D. Mietzner / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2015) xxxxxx
Table 1 (continued)
Authors
Unit of analysis
Operationalization of competences in CI
Research eld
Human resource
Professional competences (plus knowledge about
development
media-related value creation processes, history of
communication, communication science, media use,
PR, organizational communication)
Methodical competence (journalism, PR, project
management, creativity and innovation, presentation,
and rhetorical competences)
Social competence (cooperation)
Personal competence (structural, conceptual,
analytical, logic thinking, intercultural, business,
leadership, and innovation and transfer competence)
Under soft skills, Dobrunz et al. subsume competences named social and personal competences in competence literature.
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scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
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Please cite this article as: Kamprath, M., Mietzner, D., The impact of sectoral changes on individual competences: A reective
scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
M. Kamprath, D. Mietzner / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2015) xxxxxx
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Fig. 2. Scenario model for competences: interrelations between business environment and competences.
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scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
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M. Kamprath, D. Mietzner / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2015) xxxxxx
Table 2
Interview partners (based on Mietzner and Kamprath, 2013, p. 287).
No.
Industry afliation
Institution
Employees
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Association
Company
Company
Research and consulting institute
Company
Association
Association
Company
Association
Company
Company
Company
Company
Company
Company
Company
Company
69
500 and more
500 and more
2049
500 and more
1019
69
200499
1019
500 and more
100199
500 and more
200499
200499
2049
2049
1
CEO
Head of department
Head of department
CEO
Head of department
CEO and Project manager
Project manager
Head of department
Deputy CEO
Head of department
CEO
Head of department
Head of department
Project manager
CEO
Deputy CEO
Freelancer
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scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
M. Kamprath, D. Mietzner / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2015) xxxxxx
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2
0 = no effect; 1 = weak or delayed effect; 2 = medium effect; and
3 = strong effect.
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Fig. 4. Active-passive-system grid of influence factors (the circled influence factors are identified as key factors).
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Table 3
Overview of key factors.
Key factor
Inuence area
Active sum
Passive sum
Economy
Economy
Economy
Economy
Economy
Technology
Politics
Content
Content
Society
60
62
75
65
65
61
57
66
62
64
23
45
82
56
77
60
50
70
100
54
Table 4
Examples for key factor projections.
Key inuence factor
(two examples)
Future projections
Creative companies learn to take and manage risks with balanced strategies. They are
adaptive to new trends and developments.
The customer's needs are interpreted very well. A moderate share of earnings will be invested
in incremental but also radical innovation projects. Trial and error is an accepted norm.
Creative companies show a skeptical attitude toward innovations. Less innovation is
happening because of the protectionism of old business models. Progress is only incremental,
and the number of innovation copy cats outweighs the number of real innovators by far.
Powerful creative companies constrain newcomers and new technologies that endanger their
business model. While using legal actions, they try to prevent innovations.
Prot from business is not reinvested in necessary infrastructure that could enable new
services. This thinking in old ways is not compatible with new technical possibilities, consumer
behavior, and user needs.
Users are curious about new digital innovations. Technology is a common part of life. The user
is surrounded by a digital aura that shares personal data with family, friends, and colleagues.
The private becomes public.
A part of the customer is abandoned to the latest media and entertainment offerings. The
other part cannot keep pace with development and rejects progress.
Security leaks and cyber-crime lead to a violation of personal rights. New ways of
communication appear but lack acceptance.
The trust in new media and entertainment services decline. People decide to be much more
cautious with innovations.
Communication anywhere,
anything, instantly
The digital divide
The digital retraction
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Table 5
Three scenarios for the creative industries for 2015.
Open universitycore features
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scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
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scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
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Acknowledgments
This article is based on findings generated within the project
MediaEXIST, financed by the German Ministry of Economy and
Technology and co-financed by the European Social Fund. Parts
of this article were written during a research stay financed by
the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD). This article
benefited from the valuable comments and suggestions made
by Charles Davis (Ryerson University) and Katharina Hlzle
(University of Potsdam). We also would like to thank the
anonymous reviewers and the journal editor who improve this
article with constructive feedback and help.
Appendix A. Coding grid
Table 6
Search grid.
Code categories
Codes
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Martin Kamprath is a researcher of business management at the University of
Potsdam and was fellowship holder for a research stay at Ryerson University,
Toronto. During his practical career he worked as a project manager in a media
spin-off of the University of Film & Television Babelsberg (HFF). Here he
developed transmedia concepts to communicate scientic knowledge on
climate change. Before, he worked in strategic marketing and in business
development departments of leading media and entertainment companies.
Martin's research elds include mapping and designing of business models,
socio-technological aspects of value evaluation and creation and interdisciplinary work. He worked in various research projects in Life-Sciences, IT and
Creative Industries.
Dana Mietzner is a Professor for Innovation Management and Regional
Management at the University of Applied Sciences Wildau. She has managed
various research projects in Life Sciences, IT and Creative Industries. Dana
nished her studies in business administration and gained professional
experience in her position as a project manager and business developer in a
marketing company. After that, she worked as a senior researcher and project
manager at the Centre for Entrepreneurship and Innovation at the University of
Potsdam in Germany for seven years. Her research interests are in technology
and innovation management, strategic foresight with a special focus on
scenario building and planning.
Please cite this article as: Kamprath, M., Mietzner, D., The impact of sectoral changes on individual competences: A reective
scenario-based approach in the creative..., Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011