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DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

DAS Strategic Recommendations


Interim project update

August 2016

Agenda for today's discussion


Recap project scope and our approach
Review our progress to date
Share some preliminary findings (our understanding of the facts)
Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Discuss next steps

Today's discussion will not include recommendations

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Context for today's discussion


Goal of today's discussion is to assemble relevant data, estimates, and
perspectives in one place
Through discussion we hope to develop a shared understanding of the problem,
rooted in data

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This shared understanding will be the basis for future strategic recommendations

Agenda

Scope of project and approach


Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Selection of preliminary findings


Next steps

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Scope of the project


BCG was asked to identify opportunities to improve two animal-related issues for Dallas:
Public safety by reducing number of stray and loose dogs
Animal welfare through continued improvement in LRR1 and other means

Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

To develop a comprehensive recommendation for DAS and community, BCG asked to:
Identify community priorities given varying constituent perspectives
Benchmark and learn from other animal service departments across US
Identify and prioritize levers to maximize impact on public safety and animal welfare
Synthesize findings in strategic and governance plan for DAS to achieve goals
BCG scope constrained by:
Focus on dog population only (vs. all animals) given link to public safety
Not inclusive of process or recommendations surrounding animal cruelty investigation

BCG efforts focused on improving the current situation,


not assessing prior events unless critical to path forward
1. Live Release Rate from shelter
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BCG has developed strong understanding of landscape


Activity

Data Analysis

Primary Research

Secondary
Research

100+ stakeholder interviews completed including:


Government: Council Members, Animal Commissions, Code & DAS, DPD
Non-profits: Animal rescue organizations, funders/philanthropies
Citizens: Town halls and specific involved individuals
~40 interviews with stakeholders from comparable benchmark cities
Detailed analysis of all relevant data sources:
DAS data & Government: Chameleon, bite reports, 311, 911, Sanitation
Community Data: Historical S/N activity
Public Data: Census data

Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Interviews with
Stakeholders

What we did

Extensive primary research to collect new and unique information:


Census: Roaming dog census in North and Southern Dallas
Ride-a-longs: DAS field day, Targeted Response Team and CARE
Surveys: Community, Rescue/welfare organization
Gathered and reviewed large volume of available secondary research:
Industry: HSUS, ICAMP, WSPA, ASPCA
Academic: The Ecology of Stray Dogs, Anthrozoos, Advances in Companion
Animal Behavior, etc.

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Dallas dogs can be conceptualized as buckets and flows


The bucket is
continuously filled
as new dogs are born

Some owners
surrender their
dogs to DAS

Imagine the Dallas dog


population as a
bucket of water
Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Some dogs "fall through the cracks"


and become loose, including
runaway, loose-owned, community or
feral dogs

Loose dogs
Loose
in
Dallasdogs collected from Field to prevent

public safety and animal welfare issues


DAS shelters and
attempts to rehome dogs,
within its capacity
4

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DAS places dogs through RTO,


adoptions and transfer partners
overflow results in euthanasia

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DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Dog issue difficult to fix because it requires coordinating efforts


Actions that impact only a single point often create unintended consequences
Isolated single actions compromise public safety
or animal welfare, or lack sustainability
Population
growth

Single Action
6

Direct or Unintended
Consequence

Pick up all the loose dogs

All dogs

Owner
surrender
5

Loose
dogs

Fix the "people" problem

Build a bigger shelter

S/N all the dogs

People replace pets given


large supply of new dogs

Euthanasia spikes from


increased intake

If breeding continues, dog


population overwhelms the
most responsible of owners

3+6

Intake fills shelter, returns to


"business as usual"

Loose
dogs
Field
collection
in Dallas

& turn-in

DAS
Shelter

Outcomes

Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Owned pets still roam the


streets

Recommended strategy likely a multi-pronged effort


requiring community coordination to be successful
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Agenda

Scope of project and approach


Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Selection of preliminary findings


Next steps

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DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Dog Population

Dallas home to ~350K dogs, with low adoption of spay/neuter


in Southern Dallas resulting in high population growth
Dallas home to
~350K dogs1

Spay/Neuter (S/N)
adoption varies between
North & Southern Dallas

Southern Dallas dog


population expected to
grow quickly5

Total dog population, K

% of dog population

% Est. growth rate

400

100

15

153

15
13

15

348
80

51

300

Spayed/
Neutered

13

10
5

60
200

80

195
85

40

0
-1
49

100

20

Intact

All dogs

-5

Intact dogs

20

-8

North
Dallas1

Southern
Dallas2

Dallas

-10

North
Dallas3

Southern
Dallas4

Dallas

North
Dallas

Southern
Dallas

Dallas

1. Dog population is a factor of households and dogs per household. There are 333,700 households in North Dallas and 0.584 dogs per household based on AVMA
2. There are 173,598 households in Southern Dallas and 0.883 dogs per household. Dogs per household is average of AVMA and Pets for Life
3. Assumes 80% sterilized in North Dallas based on local expert interviews
4. Based on 2015 DAS shelter and field intake and inline with local expert interviews
5. Growth rates based on starting population, birth rate, and death rate. Birth rate assumes 1.16 litters a year, 7 puppies a litter, 75% birth survival rate for an average of 6.09 puppies a year per intact
female. Sex ratio assumed to be 50/50. A 10 year life expectancy, implies 10% of dogs die in a given year.
Note: I30 used to separate North from Southern Dallas. North Dallas includes districts 2,6,9,10,11,12,13,14. Southern Dallas includes districts 1,3,4,5,7,8.
Source: DAS Chameleon database; Experian Current Year Estimates (Q2 2015) for population data; AVMA; ASPCA; PFL; Birth and Death Rate Estimates of Cats and Dogs 2004; ASPCA; Canine
Perinatal Mortality Study 2012; BCG Analysis
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DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Population Growth

Population growth slowed by DAS and community efforts,


but will only "pay off interest, not principal"
Population growth
contained in two ways

Today, efforts have contained growth in Southern Dallas,


but not reduced intact population
Intact Dogs in Southern Dallas (K)

DAS collection & placement


DAS removes dogs from area
through Field and OTC collects
DAS places some dogs back
into community that have been
S/N

600

No community intervention1
Growth with DAS Collection2
Growth with DAS Collection and S/N3

Today's activities prevent


rapid population growth

400
+15%

Low-cost S/N surgeries


DAS and community
organizations offer free/lowcost S/N surgeries that serve
dog-owners in the community

200

+ 2

Higher levels of S/N or removal from area


required to reduce intact population
0
0

10

Years
1. Assumes no spay/neuter, adoptions, RTO, or transfers.
2. Assumes no spay/neuter, however, number of adoptions, RTO, and transfers into Southern Dallas constant to 2015.
3. Surgeries completed by BFBD, SNN, SPCA, DAS (through BFBD), DCAP, PFL specific to Southern Dallas. Assumes levels of S/N are constant to 2015.
Note: Assumes starting intact population of 130,294 dogs in Southern Dallas, 6% roaming, 50/50 sex ratio, 1.16 litters a year , 7 puppies a litter, 75% birth survival rate, 10 year life expectancy, 2.8%
of owned dogs breeding
Source: AVMA; ASPCA; American Kennel Club; Pets for Life Canine Perinatal Mortality Study 2012; Birth and Death Rate Estimates of Cats and Dogs 2004; PetMD; Development of a Model for
Estimating the Size and Dynamics of Pet Dog Population 1994; BFBD; SNN; SPCA; DAS Chameleon database; DCAP; PFL; BCG Analysis
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Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Dog Population and Loose Dogs

Not all dogs are loose: We used citizen input to identify loose
dog hotspots and executed a census to size that population
Heat map based on Citizen input

Dogs Seen: 0
Miles Driven: 16
Dogs / mile: 0

Dogs Seen: 0
Miles Driven: 15
Dogs / mile: 0

% of residents that see


dogs often based on input
from citizen survey

Dogs Seen: 0
Miles Driven: 12
Dogs / mile: 0

Dogs Seen1 : 21
Miles Driven1 : 20
Dogs / mile1 : 1.05

Dogs Seen: 1
Miles Driven: 8
Dogs / mile: 0.13
Dogs Seen: 20
Miles Driven: 16
Dogs / mile: 1.25

Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Dogs Seen: 0
Miles Driven: 8
Dogs / mile: 0

Dogs Seen: 4
Miles Driven: 15
Dogs / mile: 0.27

Dogs Seen: 4
Miles Driven: 9
Dogs / mile: 0.44

Dogs Seen1 : 34
Miles Driven1 : 35
Dogs / mile1 : 0.97

Dogs Seen: 1
Miles Driven: 8
Dogs / mile: 0.13

Dogs Seen: 10
Miles Driven: 14
Dogs / mile: 0.71

Dogs Seen: 5
Miles Driven: 17
Dogs / mile: 0.29

Dogs Seen: 6
Miles Driven: 9
Dogs / mile: 0.67

Dogs Seen: 4
Miles Driven: 10
Dogs / mile: 0.40

Dogs Seen: 23
Miles Driven: 15
Dogs / mile: 1.53

Dogs Seen: 1
Miles Driven: 8
Dogs / mile: 0.13

1. Based on multiple routes driven


Source: Google Maps; City of Dallas; Dallas Community Survey June 2016; BCG Analysis
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DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Dog Population and Loose Dogs

Based on results, estimate ~8,700 loose dogs in Southern Dallas


Sizing population can be helpful in identifying resources needed to address issue and progress tracking

What did we see:


136 dogs along 235 miles

What does it mean:


~8,700 loose dogs in Southern Dallas

BCG counted loose dogs on ~235 miles driven


Census
Trips

Miles
Driven

Dogs
Seen

Observations extrapolated based on road


mileage to estimate total loose dogs in Dallas

Average
Per Mile

Total
Road
Miles1

Dogs
Seen /
Mile

Unseen
Multiplier2

Average

North
Dallas

59

0.02

North
Dallas

2,226

0.02

n/a

n/a

Southern
Dallas

15

176

135

0.77

Southern
Dallas

1,751

0.77

~6.45x

~8,700

Also observed citizens walking with sticks for


protection on most routes in Southern Dallas

Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Math shown is simplified, but representative

Census does not provide indication of trend and would


need to be repeated in the future to assess progress
1. Roadway mileage from Navteq
2. The Ecology of Stray Dogs by Dr. Alan Beck suggests only 20% of roaming dogs are visible.
Note: Utilized photographic capture-recapture (Beck Method) endorsed by WHO as well as sampling approach endorsed by WSPA
Census routes completed between June 28 Aug 2nd between 6am - 730am
Source: WHO Dog Population Management Guide 1990; WSPA Surveying Roaming Dog Population; Navteq; The Ecology of Stray Dogs; BCG Analysis
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Loose Dogs

DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Detail: Loose dogs spotted during census were of various


sizes and breeds

Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: BCG Dog Census June 2016


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DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Loose Dogs

Reported dog bites in Dallas up 15% annually from 2013-15


Proportion of bites attributed to loose-owned dogs growing faster at 23%
DAS completes a "bite report" for
every reported dog bite
per CDC guidelines

In Dallas, dog bites, especially those


from loose-owned dogs are growing
No. dog bites1
2,000

CAGR2
2013-2015

1,647
+15%

1,524

1,251

21%

14%

Stray

10%

41%

Restrained
owned

10%

42%

44%

Loose
owned

23%

2015

est. 20164

1,500

1,148
21%
1,000

23%
37%
40%

40%

500

37%

39%

2013

2014

1. DAS dog bite reports from 2013-2016 (n=4,290); BCG performed manual data entry of key fields
2. Compounded annual growth rate
3. Stray defined as a dog without an owner
4. Compared the total dog bites for January to March of 2015 and 2016 to find 1.1x growth in 2016. Applied 1.1x to the total number of bites in 2015 (1,497) to estimate 2016 total dog bites.
Note: For the fields that were left blank in the bite reports, assumed those reports were distributed in line with completed records. Whether dog was stray or owned had 213 incompletes (~4.9%). Of
owned dogs, 1,384 (42.9%) had the "at large," or loose, field incomplete
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Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Field Intake and Owner Surrenders

Since 2011, DAS dog intake is flat with increase in owner


surrenders compensating for slight decline in field intake

DAS Dog Intake

CAGR1
since 2011

25,000

20,000

20,829
1%
13%

20,103
1%
14%

21,141
1%

21,346
2%

19%

19%

20,807
2%

20,159
2%

19%

21%

52%
15,000

45% Field: -3.9%


28%

38%

Total: -0.7%

10,000

25%

25%

24%

25%

35%

24%

23%

23%

23%

31%

55%

48%

5,000

17%

23%

2011

2012

31%

31%

32%

31%

2013

2014

2015

TTM2 As Of
May 2016

OTC: 2.4%

Field - Same Day RTO

Field Pick up

Field - Capture

OTC - Stray Turn-In

OTC - Owner Surrender

1. CAGR = compound annual growth rate. 2. TTM = trailing twelve months.


Note: Field - Pickup includes both confined dogs and dogs surrendered in the field
Source: DAS Chameleon database
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Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Field Intake

DAS issued citations growth at ~7% monthly, but only 36% paid
Civil citations account for <2% of citations issued

Monthly citations growing 7% monthly


Number of citations Per Month

In last 24 months 64% of issued


citations went unpaid
Fines for citations from Jun '14-May '16

500

461

1,000,000

595,812

930,621

437
397

400

800,000

+7%
286

300

308

272

176 183 225


231 240
213
144
190 202
200
163
174
132
130
108 107
96
94
90
100

400,000

334,808

200,000

201406

64%

600,000

Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

36%

201501

201601

2016- Month
05

Paid fines

Outstanding fines

Total fines

3488 citations over TTM


Note: Over the last 24 months 1.83% of issued citations were civil citations. No evidence of an increase in proportion of civil versus criminal citations has been observed.
Note: TTM = trailing twelve months
Source: Citation data from municipal courts between June 2014 and May 2016
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DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Positive Outcomes

Today ~60% of dogs achieve positive outcomes


In past five years, adoptions have grown 25% annually, transfers +15% amid flat volumes

# of Dog Intake
CAGR2
since 2011

25,000

20,829
20,000

7%
9%

15,000

21,141

21,346

20,103
7%
11%

7%

10%

9%

20,807
10%

9%
14%

12%
22%

27%

20,159
Other1
9%

RTO

6%
6%

17%

Transfer

16%

34%

Adopted

25%

37%

Euthanized -14%

31%
Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

33%
10,000

70%
58%

5,000

53%

49%

41%

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

TTM3 As Of
May 2016

1. Other includes animals that died in or were lost at the shelter including those that were DOA. 2.CAGR = compound annual growth rate. 3. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Source: DAS Chameleon database
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DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Positive Outcomes

Across open admission shelters, those with higher levels of


'Unhealthy & Untreatable' intake tend to have lower LRRs
Health at Intake vs. LRR for Open Admission Shelters
Dog Live Release Rate
125%

100%

San Antonio
~22,900 dog intake
~3% 'Unhealthy' at intake
~85% LRR

Austin Animal Services


San Antonio Animal Care Services Albuquerque Animal Welfare Department
Houston BARC Shelter

Reno Animal Services

San Jose Animal Care and Services


75%

San Fran Animal


Care & Control
Richmond Animal Care & Control
Prince George Animal Services

50%
DAS 2015
~20,100 dog intake
~18% 'Unhealthy' at intake
~59% LRR

25%

City of Mobile Animal Shelter


Dallas Animal Services

0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

% of Dogs categorized as "Unhealthy & Untreatable" at intake


5,000 annual
dog intake
Note: Shelters are predominantly 'open admission' meaning they do not turn animals away. Majority of LRR and health status data from 2013 report. DAS, San Antonio and Houston LRR and health
status from 2015.
Source: Maddie's Fund "Comparative Database Full Dataset" and shelter websites.
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Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Agenda

Scope of project and approach


Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Selection of preliminary findings


Next steps

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Next steps
BCG to finalize and publish report in coming month, including:
List of strategic recommendations
Expected impact / importance of each recommendation
Rationale behind each recommendation
Supporting analysis and research

Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

BCG to present recommendations to city government in a public forum as requested

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Q&

21

Appendix

DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Backup: WHO method calculations estimate ~11k loose dogs

Formula for estimation

(m 1)

route miles

(16 0) (12 16) (14 25) (12 38) 32

(0 1) (3 1) (0 1) (0 1)
1751

total miles
N

N total estimate

0 192 350 456


.018
1 4 11

Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

(Mn)

Population estimation

M dogs observed first time


n dogs observed sec ond time
m dogs re observed

998
.018
7

N 199.6 .018

N 10,922 dogs
Source: WHO Dog Population Management Guide 1990
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DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Backup: WSPA method calculations estimate ~6.5k loose dogs

dogs observed all miles

di
miles driven
f s fo

Population estimation
di

di 642.86 9.97

f s fraction open
f o fraction seen

Dog density

di
si
total sq miles

135 dogs 1751 miles

0.211 175.62 miles

di 6,410 dogs

Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Total number of dogs

Dogs per square mile calculation

si

6,410 dogs
1751 sq miles

si 3.7 dogs
Source: WSPA Surveying Roaming Dog Population
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DRAFT MATERIALS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Date Completed

Route Location

North / Southern Dallas

Dogs Seen

Miles Driven

Dogs Seen / Mile

June 28

Fair Park

Southern

16

15

1.07

June 29

Fair Park

Southern

1.00

June 29

Oak cliff

Southern

20

16

1.25

June 29

Pleasant Grove

Southern

14

10

1.40

June 29

Pleasant Grove

Southern

12

17

0.71

June 30

Southwest Dallas

Southern

10

14

0.71

June 30

Fair Park

Southern

15

0.27

June 30

Lakewood

North

15

June 30

Lenel

North

16

June 30

Winnetka

Southern

0.44

June 30

Kiest Park

Southern

0.67

July 1

Illinois/Fordham

Southern

0.13

July 7

Red Bird

Southern

10

0.40

July 7

Pleasant Grove

Southern

1.00

July 30

West of White Rock Lake / Lakewood

North

July 31

East of White Rock Lake

North

12

August 2

Wheatland / Wolf Creek

Southern

15

0.33

August 2

Southern Dallas District 8

Southern

23

17

1.35

August 3

West Dallas

North

0.13

August 3

Westwood Park / Red Bird

Southern

0.38

59

0.02

135

176

0.77

Total North
Total Southern

Copyright 2016 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Detail: Dog Census Routes

Note: Some routes have different lengths due to nature of roads on routes and other logistical reasons (i.e. dead ends). Sampling technique does not require specific mileage, instead, requires that
routes are driven at the same time in the morning
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