Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/
info/about/policies/terms.jsp
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content
in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship.
For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.
American Economic Association is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The American Economic
Review.
http://www.jstor.org
This content downloaded from 200.27.27.9 on Mon, 05 Oct 2015 18:39:08 UTC
All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
American Economic
Job Polarization
By Maarten
Goos,
Alan
Manning,
in recent
However,
years,
it has
become
appar
There
several
hypotheses
about
Centre
for other
European
countries.
These
countries
the rea
for Economic
Naamsestraat
France,
Denmark,
Finland,
Austria,
Belgium,
the
Greece,
Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg,
Germany,
Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the
United Kingdom.
2
Except forGermany, where hours are not recorded and
those working fewer than 15 hours per week are not in the
Salomons*
Studies, University of
69, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
(e-mail:
Manning: Department of
maarten.goos@econ.kuleuven.be);
*Goos:
and Anna
Leuven,
inEurope
dataset.
(e-mail: anna.salomons@econ.kuleuven.be).
58
This content downloaded from 200.27.27.9 on Mon, 05 Oct 2015 18:39:08 UTC
All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
VOL. 99
Table
JOBPOLARIZATIONINEUROPE 59
NO.
over 1993-2006
in Shares of Hours Worked
by Their Mean
Ranked
1993 European Wage
1?Changes
for Occupations
Percent
ordered by 1993 mean
rank
ISCO occupations
European wage
employment
share in 1993
Percentage point
change over
1993-2006
4.54
1.25
2.92
1.86
2.82
Otherprofessionals
of small enterprises
Managers
Physics, mathematics, engineering associate professionals
Other associate professionals
Life science and health associate professionals
Nine middling occupations
Drivers and mobile plant operators
Stationary plant and related operators
Metal, machinery, and related trade workers
Precision, handicraft, and related trade workers
0.70
1.28
3.60
3.99
0.91
2.07
6.77
2.28
5.48
1.75
8.33
1.31
12.04
2.00
Officeclerks
Customerserviceclerks
1.02
?0.14
0.66
0.17
?
0.39
2.33
?0.40
-1.98
0.19
Extraction
8.17
?0.52
Machine
6.71
-2.01
3.19
-1.37
transport
6.94
4.11
6.73
4.47
1.15
?
0.48
1.42
1.02
Years
1993-2006. All 16 countries, pooled. Employment shares in 1993 and 2006
imputed on the basis of average annual growth rates for countries with shorter data spans.
are ordered by theirmean wage rank in 1993 across the 16 European countries.
Occupations
Notes:
employment
shares
close
paying
pations
see which
occupations
relative
to
the mean
are
growing
to
the occu
To
wage.3
in impor
professionals
and managers,
but
also
several
transport,
3
The wage
and
sales
workers.
The
larg
operators,
and
office
clerks.
This content downloaded from 200.27.27.9 on Mon, 05 Oct 2015 18:39:08 UTC
All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
60
100
f O
^50-??
.?
?r^o
-100
in Employment
Changes
cells weighted
Force Survey
Shares
some
provides
2 2.5
wage
over
in 1994
1993-2006
1993-2006,
/^?Oo
H-1-1
1.Percentage
European
oO
1.5
Sources:
o'o?
Q.
Log mean
Figure
0c0
evidence.
United Kingdom
by Their
Force Survey
1994.
do
seem
to capture
the essence
of
The
introduction discussed
skill-biased
technical change, routinization, offshoring,
and wage inequality as potential explanations
for changes in the occupational structure of
employment. To capture the idea behind skill
biased technical change, we use the average
level of education in an occupation. To capture
the "routinization" hypothesis, we use 96 vari
ables from the US Occupational
Information
Network (0*NET) database to construct three
measures of the types of tasks contained in an
occupation?abstract
tasks,
which
are
intense
the way
these
variables
are
constructed.
ferent occupations
(e.g.,
are offshorable,
engineering
professionals,
we
use
customer
counts
ser
(e.g.,
drivers,
personal
service
workers,
health professionals).
Finally, we use wage data foreach of the coun
tries from theEuropean Community Household
Panel (ECHP), the European Union Survey on
Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) and
the Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development
to compute time
(OECD)
varying measures of occupational wages and
measures of wage inequality.We might expect
This content downloaded from 200.27.27.9 on Mon, 05 Oct 2015 18:39:08 UTC
All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
VOL.
Table
JOBPOLARIZATIONINEUROPE 61
NO.
99
in Shares
2?Changes
over 1993-2006
of Hours Worked
and Low-Paying Occupations
Nine middling
occupations
Eight highest
paying occupations
Employment
EU average
Percentage
46% (5.2)
22% (3.5)
point change
32% (7.1)
1993-2006
EU average
1.58
Austria
-7.77
1.48
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
-0.96
6.66
France
-0.74
-9.50
-7.16
-6.54
Germany
Greece
-8.71
1.75
-6.08
Ireland
6.19
-5.47
-8.20
-1.66
Luxembourg
5.67
4.34
-0.72
17.28
-8.45
10.10
2.41
1.57
2.27
Norway
Portugal
4.96
2.39
-4.68
-6.52
-1.13
0.96
1.90
5.77
-7.04
-6.93
-10.32
UK
-0.12
-9.08
Netherlands
Spain
Sweden
8.03
8.13
12.81
-12.07
3.05
Italy
6.19
15.17
-14.58
-0.59
-1.26
6.07
5.03
4.55
1993-2006. Employment shares in 1993 and 2006 imputed on the basis of aver
age annual growth rates for countries with shorter data spans. Occupational
employment
pooled within each country. Low-, middling, and high-paying occupations are as listed in
Table 1.
Notes: Years
have
distributions
occupational
relatively
small
because
relative
wages
affect
factor
demands,
result
is insensitive
to using
different
This
measures
wage inequality.
Yet theremay be reasons other than overall
wage inequality why countries differ in their
share
of
low-wage
employment.
An
alternative
This content downloaded from 200.27.27.9 on Mon, 05 Oct 2015 18:39:08 UTC
All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
62
30
CO
G)
j? 25
cCD
E
o
Q.
ECD
20
S,
CO
o
15
~i-r
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Log(p90/p10)
Figure
2. Overall
Wage
Inequality
and the
1993 Low-Wage
Employment
Community
in 16 European
Share
Household
Panel;
the European
Countries
Union
Survey on
of 0.11.
III.
Conclusions
weaker.
REFERENCES
Autor,
David
H.,
and
Lawrence
F. Katz.
1999.
This content downloaded from 200.27.27.9 on Mon, 05 Oct 2015 18:39:08 UTC
All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
VOL. 99
JOBPOLARIZATIONINEUROPE 63
NO.
Table
Linear
3?Explaining
Dependent
variable:
(1)
Abstract
Job Polarization
In (hours worked/1,000)
(2)
task importance
1.02*
0.96*
(0.46)
Routine
(0.24)
- 0.67*
task importance
- 0.85*
(0.30)
Service
task importance
(0.20)
0.24
(0.32)
Offshorability
-0.22
Educationlevel
(0.19)
-0.19 ?
(0.48)
-
Log wage
0.32
(0.29)
Notes: Years
all countries; 3,950 observations for each regression. Standard
1993-2006;
errors clustered by occupation-country. All point estimates and standard errors, except for
those on the log wage, have been multiplied by 100. The log wage is country-occupation-year
cells and country-year
specific. Each regression includes dummies for occupation-country
cells. Task importances, offshorability, and the education level have been rescaled tomean
zero and standard deviation one.
*
Significant at the 5 percent level or better.
Autor,
Lawrence
H.,
F. Katz,
and Melissa
Labor
Market."
American
Economic
Review,
96(2): 189-94.
Autor,
David
H.,
Frank
Levy,
and
Richard
J.
118(4):1279-1333.
Christian,
Johannes
Ludsteck,
and
Goos,
Maarten,
2007.
"Lousy
Goos,
Maarten,
Alan
and
Manning,
Anna
Salo
and
Francesca,
Giuseppe
Ragusa.
Richard.
2008.
"Structural
Trans
Spitz-Oener,
Alexandra.
2006.
"Technical
This content downloaded from 200.27.27.9 on Mon, 05 Oct 2015 18:39:08 UTC
All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions