Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
FED SURVEY
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on July 21-23, 2016. Participants were not required to answer every question.
April 30,
10%
0%
0%
20%
0%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
100%
Don't know/unsure
30%
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
(For those answering rates would be kept unchanged)
What is the main reason the Fed will keep rates unchanged
FED SURVEY
at its upcoming
meeting?
April 30,
June 14
0%
10%
July 26
20%
Global growth
concerns
30%
40%
50%
15%
41%
Markets
unprepared for
rate hike
5%
29%
Uncertainty
surrounding
Brexit
13%
17%
18%
14%
Other
Weak jobs
growth
0%
Don't
know/unsure
0%
0%
50%
Other:
Low inflation
No possible reason to raise them
Spread of negative rates suggests no
near-term increase
They know not what they do
60%
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
2. After this months meeting, the Federal Reserve's next
FEDmove
SURVEY
directional
will most likely be:
April 30,
Jan 27
0%
Mar 15
20%
10%
10%
4%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
2%
3%
0%
40%
Jun 14
60%
Jul 26
80%
100%
88%
90%
94%
95%
100%
Apr 26
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
When will the Federal Reserve make its next move?
FED SURVEY
Jan 27
Survey
For
those
Avg.
who
month
said:
Raise
rates
(88%)
Lower
rates
(10%)
April
March30,
15
Survey
For
those
Avg.
who
month
said:
April 26
Survey
For
those
Avg.
who
month
said:
June 14
Survey
For
those
Avg.
who
month
said:
May
2016
Raise
rates
(90%)
June
2016
Raise
rates
(94%)
Raise
rates
(95%)
August
2016
Lower
rates
(10%)
Oct
2016
Lower
rates
(4%)
Move
to neg.
rates
(0%)
--
Move
to neg.
rates
(0%)
--
Move
to neg.
rates
(0%)
New
quant.
easing
(3%)
April
2016
New
quant.
easing
(0%)
--
New
quant.
easing
(2%)
August
2016
Sept
2016
Lower
rates
(3%)
Sept
2016
Oct
2016
July 26
For
those
who
said:
Avg.
month
Raise
rates
(100%)
Dec
2016
Lower
rates
(0%)
--
--
--
--
Move to
neg.
rates
(0%)
--
Move to
neg.
rates
(0%)
Dec
2016
New
quant.
easing
(3%)
March
2017
New
quant.
easing
(0%)
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
3. How many times will the Federal Reserve hike rates this
year (2016)?
FED SURVEY
5.00
April 30,
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.8
2.50
2.1
1.9
2.00
1.6
1.5
1.50
0.9
1.00
0.50
0.00
Mar 15
Apr 26
Survey Dates
Jun 14
Jul 26
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
4. The current presidential campaign is:
Positive for economic outlook
FED SURVEY
Negative for economic outlook
70%
61%
60%
58%
56%
60%
50%
40%
39%
40%
37%
38%
30%
20%
10%
5%
2%
3%
2%
Apr 26
Jun 14
Jul 26
0%
Mar 15
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
5. Which would be the best presidential election outcome
for the economy?
FED SURVEY
A Democrat wins
April 30,
Doesn't matter
A Republican wins
Don't know/unsure
50%
45%
Republican Wins
40%
43%
40%
37%
35%
35%
30%
26%
30%
28%
26%
25%
23%
24%
20%
Democrat wins
21%
18%
Doesn't matter
15%
16%
15%
10%
10%
9%
Don't know/unsure
5%
0%
Mar 15
Apr 26
Jun 14
Jul 26
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
6. Which candidate has best economic policies?
60%
FED SURVEY
Jun 14
Jul 26
April 30,
50%
45%
44%
40%
30%
30%
32%
25% 24%
20%
10%
0%
Clinton
Trump
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
Which candidate would be best for the stock market?
FED SURVEYJun 14
60%
Jul 26
April 30,
50%
40%
38%
38%
38%
31%
31%
30%
25%
20%
10%
0%
Clinton
Trump
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
7. Who is most likely to win this year's presidential
election?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
90%
80%
Apr 26
Jun 14
Jul 26
80% 80%
70%
60%
52%
50%
40%
30%
26%
21%
20%
13%
15%
10%
7%
5%
0%
Clinton
Trump
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
8. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will be on
?
FED SURVEY
December 31, 2016
April 30,
2,350
2311
2,300
2296
2,250
2247
2293
2259
2,200
2254
2200
2166
2,150
2234
2223
2158
2159
2183
2149
2114
2140
2,100
2249
2244
2107
2088
2,050
2035
2,000
2000
1,950
1,900
1,850
1,800
Dec
16
Jan
27
'15
Dec
15
Survey Dates
Jan
15
'16
Jan
26
Mar Apr
15
26
Jun
14
Jul
26
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
9. What do you expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury
note will be on ?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
4.0%
3.52%
3.5%
3.14%
3.0%
3.24%
3.17%
3.09%
2.88%
3.04%
2.83%
2.89%
2.88%
2.67%
2.58%
2.67%
2.5%
2.51%
2.54%
2.24%
2.34%
2.11%
2.10%
2.0%
1.75%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec
16
Jan
27
'15
Mar April
17
28
Jul
16
Jul
28
Sept Oct
16
27
Survey Dates
Dec
15
Jan
26
'16
Mar
15
Apr
26
Jun
14
Jul
26
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
10.
Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on ?
April 30,
2.5%
2.17%
2.13%
1.99%
2.0%
2.04%
2.07%
1.93%
1.84%
1.75%
1.61%1.62%
1.56%
1.5%
1.61%
1.78%
1.60%
1.49%
1.41%
1.46%
1.43%
1.17%
1.18%
1.0%
1.12%
0.88%
0.84%
0.91% 0.90%
0.85%
0.5%
0.0%
0.78%
0.74%
0.59%
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
11.
At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
SURVEY
terminalFED
rate?
April 30,
4.0%
3.5%
3.30%
3.20%
3.17%
3.11%
3.16%
3.0%
3.06%
2.98%
3.04%
2.85% 2.79%
2.5%
2.69%
2.65%
2.58%
2.73%
2.65%
2.64%
2.56%
2.42%
2.0%
Survey Dates
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
12.
When do you believe fed funds will reach its
terminal rate?
FED SURVEY
Survey Date
Forecast
August 20 survey
Q4 2017
September 16 survey
Q3 2017
October 28 survey
Q4 2017
December 16 survey
Q1 2018
Q1 2018
March 17 survey
Q4 2017
April 28 survey
Q1 2018
June 16 survey
Q1 2018
July 28 survey
Q2 2018
August 25 survey
Q3 2018
September 16 survey
Q1 2018
October 27 survey
Q3 2018
December 15 survey
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Mar 15 survey
Q3 2018
Apr 26 survey
Q4 2018
Jun 14 survey
Q4 2018
Jul 26 survey
Q4 2018
April 30,
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
13.
What is your forecast for the year-over-year
percentage change in real U.S. GDP for ?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
2016
2017
3.0%
+2.88%
2.8%
+2.84%
+2.81%
+2.78%
+2.80%
+2.70%
+2.64%
+2.60%
2.6%
+2.43%
2.4%
+2.45%+2.41%
+2.31%
2.2%
+2.17%
+2.26%
+2.25%
+2.21%
+2.14%
+2.08%
+2.05%
2.0%
+1.95%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec 16
Jan 27,
Mar 17 April 28 Jun 16
'15
Dec 15
Jan 26
'16
Mar 15
Apr 26
Jun 14
Jul 26
2016 +2.88% +2.80% +2.84% +2.81% +2.78% +2.70% +2.64% +2.60% +2.45% +2.17% +2.14% +1.95% +2.05% +2.08%
2017
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
14.
What is your forecast for the year-over-year
percentage change in the headline U.S. CPI for ?
FED SURVEY
2016
April 30,
2017
2.4%
2.17%
2.24%
2.2%
2.08%
2.12%
2.07%
2.0%
2.20%
2.17%
2.17%
2.13%
2.07%
2.02%
1.89% 1.88%
1.96%
1.8%
1.75%
1.72%
1.75%
1.66%
1.6%
1.57%
1.50%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
Dec
16
Jan
27,
'15
Jul
28
Sept Oct
16
27
Survey Dates
Dec
15
Jan
26
'16
Mar
15
Apr
26
Jun
14
Jul
26
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
15.
When do you expect the Fed to allow its balance
sheet to decline?
FED
0% SURVEY
10%
20%
April 30,
Jun '16
0%
Jul '16
0%
0%
Aug '16
0%
0%
Sep '16
3%
0%
Oct '16
0%
0%
Nov '16
0%
0%
Dec '16
5%
5%
Jan '17
5%
Feb '17
Mar '17
Apr '17
May '17
50%
60%
70%
80%
0%
0%
2%
3%
8%
7%
5%
2%
63%
5%
7%
40%
10%
30%
71%
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
20%
15%
8%
4%
8%
5%
7%
10%
3%
12%
6%
31%
40%
0%
6%
3%
3%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
0%
0%
2%
31%
28%
30%
27%
29%
32%
21%
23%
26%
29%
26%
18%
14%
13%
14%
11%
17%
21%
16%
8%
10%
10%
21%
22%
28%
20%
20%
20%
22%
22%
24%
29%
30%
26%
21%
12%
29%
15%
14%
9%
0%
8%
3%
9%
2%
5%
5%
5%
3%
2%
5%
7%
0%
3%
0%
2%
3%
2%
2%
3%
3%
6%
6%
3%
3%
0%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
0%
2%
3%
2%
2%
3%
2%
0%
3%
0%
0%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
6%
0%
6%
0%
0%
0%
4%
8%
0%
3%
0%
2%
0%
2%
2%
0%
2%
4%
3%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
10%
18%
8%
15%
12%
5%
8%
12%
6%
10%
3%
6%
6%
6%
14%
12%
0%
8%
8%
0%
5%
0%
3%
2%
18%
12%
11%
8%
14%
16%
8%
11%
25%
6%
8%
13%
10%
5%
5%
7%
0%
10%
41%
28%
28%
22%
29%
45%
41%
44%
44%
33%
36%
28%
22%
6%
17%
8%
6%
9%
8%
10%
5%
8%
5%
9%
8%
7%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3%
7%
5%
7%
13%
7%
Other responses:
11%
13%
14%
7%
13%
2%
21%
18%
13%
12%
11%
8%
3%
16%
14%
19%
11%
9%
14%
5%
15%
23%
21%
11%
10%
7%
Don't know/
unsure
Other
Protectionist trade
policies
Outcome of US
presidential election
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Tax/
regulatory policies
Survey
Date
Apr 30
Jun 18
Jul 30
Sep 17
Oct 29
Dec 17
Jan 28 '14
Mar 18
Apr 28
Jul 29
Sep 16
Oct 28
Dec 16
Jan 27 '15
Mar 17
April 28
Jun 16
Jul 28
Sept 16
Oct 27
Dec 15
Jan 26 '16
Mar 15
Apr 26
Jun 14
Jul 26
European recession/
financial crisis
April 30,
Geopolitical risks
FED SURVEY
16.
What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S.
economic recovery?
0%
0%
4%
2%
0%
2%
0%
0%
0%
3%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
2%
0%
0%
3%
0%
2%
0%
2%
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
17.
In the next 12 months, what percent probability do
you place on the U.S. entering recession? (0%=No
FED
SURVEY
chance of
recession,
100%=Certainty of recession)
April 30,
40%
36.1%
35%
34.0%
30%
28.8%
28.5%
26.0%
25%
25.9%
24.4%
23.5%
25.5%
22.9%
22.1%
20%
20.6%
20.3%
20.4%
18.2%
19.1%
17.6%
18.4%
22.2%
21.1%
18.6%
17.3%
16.9%
16.2%
16.4%
15.1%
16.9%
16.2%
15.3%
15.2%
15.0%
14.6%
15%
24.1%
17.4%
15.1%
14.7%
13.6%
13.0%
10%
Survey Dates
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
18.
FED SURVEY
10
April 30,
9
6.9
5.3
5
2.8
US economy
EU economy
British economy
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
19.
In the next 12 months, what percent probability do
you place on the UK and EU entering recession?
100%
FED SURVEY
April 30,
90%
80%
70%
60%
55.1%
50%
38.3%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
UK
EU
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
20.
How will Brexit affect the chance that other
countries will leave the EU?
FED SURVEY
100%
April 30,
90%
80%
73%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
15%
10%
7%
5%
0%
Increase the
chance
Decrease the
chance
Have no effect
Don't
know/unsure
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
21.
FED SURVEY
April 30,
Other
21%
Currencies
2%
Economics
45%
Fixed Income
17%
Equities
14%
Comments:
Marshall Acuff, Silvercrest Asset Management: Expect
increasing discussion about fiscal stimulus in 2017. The defense
budget is already turning around. Infrastructure spending will
increase.
John Augustine, The Huntington National Bank: The US
economy is currently in a sweet spot - stocks up, yields down, $2
gasoline, unemployment below 5%. Not sure how long it will last.
Americans should take advantage of it while they can!
Jim Bianco, Bianco Research: The prospects of immediate central
banks stimulus in response to BRexit while the potential effects on
economic growth are uncertain is serving to driving risk (stock)
markets higher. If central banks provide "sugar" when the economy
has not changed, the "high" will be seen in markets.
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
Peter Boockvar, The Lindsey Group: This is the most bizarre,
surreal, and confusing economic and investing landscape that any of
FED SURVEY
us will ever see.
April 30,
Robert Brusca, Fact and Opinion Economics: Global risk is ON
whether markets want it or not. Europe is sputtering as it IS at risk
to Brexit as is the UK. The US economy is not gathering momentum
as the Fed has expected this year. Job growth is slowing as is overall
activity. The many years of leaning too hard on the service sector
are taking their toll. Trump is probably not electable but he has the
best grasp on US trade issues. Trade - NOT FREE TRADE - is killing
the US economy and not even academics will mention it. So we will
kick the can of status quo down the road and the economy will
gradually suffocate itself.
Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO: Whereas central bankers have been
hellbent on printing money in order to slow bank deleveraging and
thereby avoid the extinguishment of money (if repaid loans are not
replaced with new ones, money disappears from the financial system
in the same way it was created out of thin air), today central
bankers could well be speeding up bank deleveraging, by conveying
a sense of pessimism and by taking actions that could reduce net
interest margins.
As for the Fed outlook, the obsession over the short-term Fed
outlook will almost certainly continue. Investors nonetheless are best
served by focusing on the global outlook for policy rates, with rates
likely to stay low for the rest of the decade, say around zero for
Europe and Japan, and around 2 for the U.S. Look for the Fed to
acknowledge the recent strength in consumer spending in its
upcoming FOMC statement on July 27th. Fed officials in the
aftermath of the meeting are also likely to point to consumer
spending data as a means of maintaining optionality for future rate
hikes, even if they never use it, keeping the rate-hike narrative
alive. Focus next on the annual gathering of central bankers at the
CNBC Fed Survey July 26, 2016
Page 25 of 30
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
Jackson Hole Symposium, which could well be the next major
communication from the Fed. Whereas last year the Symposium's
FED SURVEY
topic was on inflation
and in 2014 it was employment, this year the
April Resilient
30,
topic is "Designing
Monetary Policy for the Future." This
focus away from the Fed's dual mandate and on the Fed itself
reinforces the recent focus on the efficacy of central banks as well as
the challenges they face in removing their monetary accommodation,
keeping investors expecting very little on this front.
Low policy rates are supportive of credit and equity assets, but the
glue that holds together this investment thesis is continued economic
growth, which does in fact look likely to continue, even if weak by
historical standards.
John Donaldson, Haverford Trust Co.: The FOMC has painted
itself into a corner as "Data Dependent" increasingly looks like
"Headline Sensitive." They appear reactive to the most recent noise
rather than underlying trends in the economy.
Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research: The doves on the
FOMC will have a difficult time delaying a second rate hike beyond
2016 and the hawks will have a strong case to make as early as
September. Absent a shock, the rebound in GDP growth with
tracking estimates running 2.5 to 3.0 percent, solid trend in
employment, and progress on inflation suggest that the Fed's
objectives are being achieved with increasing speed.
Robert Fry, Robert Fry Economics: Because low interest rates
force people to save more to fund their future retirements, they are
actually restraining economic growth. In macro theory terms, the IS
curve is upward-sloping at very low interest rates.
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter: My greatest fear is that
should Mr. Trump by some quirk of fate win the Presidency that he
FED
will push ahead
withSURVEY
trade embargoes, sanctions, tariffs and the like
April
30, and enemies alike. I shall vote Republican
against our trade
allies
but with my nose held tight and my eyes cast downward as I cast
my vote.
Kevin Giddis, Raymond James Financial: The Fed seems to be ok
with the market being the tail that wags the dog. This is evident
when global growth, energy prices and terrorism affect Fed policy vs.
employment and economic growth. Do we really plan to wait for the
right moment to present itself to the committee? If the Fed wants to
regain control and complete the mandate that Congress has
empowered them to do, they should raise rates at the next meeting.
There will not likely ever be a perfect time.
Art Hogan, Wunderlich Securities: With the negative drumbeat of
the RNC behind us, and with better EPS and economic data, this
market can continue its path of least resistance higher. The S&P 500
yields are 50 BPs higher than the 10-Year. That's bullish for stocks.
John Kattar, Ardent Asset Advisors: The Fed is on hold until after
the election. For me, the general environment is very unpredictable,
and I get the sense that 2017 will be a pivotal year that will see
watershed-type events with potential for extreme good or bad.
David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors: Politics: US, Japan, Brexit,
Italy, everywhere. Risk rising due to politics: markets do not know
how to discount politics. Thus volatility rises in response. The Brexit
vote is a good example.
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
Subodh Kumar, Subodh Kumar & Associates: Notwithstanding
quantitative ease and minuscule administered rates including in the
SURVEY
United States,FED
Europe
and Japan, we see ephemeral stability in an
April
30,
unstable world.
Since
2008 at least, markets appear overly reactive
rather than proactively balanced. Political, economic and credit rating
developments and in currencies run contrary to complacency about
central banks independently maintaining dominance. Politicization
appears a risk, from the US elections but also internally in Europe as
well as Asia not least in China and Japan. Terrorism and
conflagration risk appears to be expanding. Competition is likely to
remain fierce even in recovery and contributory to turbulence risk.
Asset diversification needs to have above benchmark cash, alternate
assets including precious metals, as well as traditional capital market
investments like equities and fixed income. Fiduciary issues are likely
to loom. Unlike the first half of 2016, in the US in particular, where
markets moved up with weakness in financials, we expect them to
be critical going forward worldwide. Into 2017 globally, we expect
high market turbulence.
Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott: The discussion over
Brexit has masked the fact that long-term inflation breakevens have
been trending lower since April. If inflation doesn't rise, neither will
rates. These deteriorating expectations are a hint that markets have
little long-term faith in any policy increases, and it's hard to imagine
overnight rates will reach more than 1% in this cycle, unless inflation
expectations change drastically.
Rob Morgan, Sethi Financial Group: Brexit will keep the Fed from
acting next week, and given the Fed's proclivity to keep rates
unchanged before a US presidential election, we won't see a rate
hike until December at the earliest.
Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors: With Brexit fading, the
Fed will have to come up with some other excuse not to raise rates
and that excuse may be hard to find.
CNBC Fed Survey July 26, 2016
Page 28 of 30
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
James Paulsen, Wells Capital Management: With nearly all
policy officials simultaneously pushing upward on the global economy
FED
SURVEY
for the first time
in this
recovery, it is probably likely that most are
April
30, year both by faster global growth and by
surprised in the
coming
synchronized broader global growth. How shocking would it be if
sometime in the next year the ECB announced it will soon begin
tapering?
Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University: If market
expectations were not so entrenched, solid economic data and postBrexit calm might have endorsed a July rate hike.
John Roberts, Hilliard Lyons: We remain marginally positive on
US equities, but believe most of the year's gains are already in place.
Positive investment performance will be driven by cycling out of
overvalued market sectors and into more attractively priced sectors.
John Ryding, RDQ Economics: Core CPI inflation is 2.3%, the
economy is at full employment, and the stock market is at a record
high. A prudent Fed would be snugging interest rates. However, we
see this Fed as being too preoccupied with risks to hike rates before
December.
Allen Sinai, Decision Economics: The U.S. is now in a different
phase of the business cycle -- fundamentals indicate rising interest
rates and a stronger dollar, with the stock market still able to reach
repeated new highs.
Hank Smith, Haverford Investments: Either presidential
candidate has plenty of fiscal levers to pull to help the economy: tax
reform, increased spending, and regulatory relief.
FED SURVEY
July 26, 2016
Diane Swonk, Diane Swonk & Associates: Financial markets are
not pricing for the geopolitical and political risks to growth we face,
FEDare
SURVEY
and central banks
inadvertently reinforcing blind optimism by
April
30,risks. Something has to give...
hedging against
those
Peter Tanous, Lynx Investment Advisory: Were still waiting for
inflation. Remember inflation?
Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute: US economic
data (i.e., ISM manufacturing and services surveys, retail sales, etc.)
have increased confidence that the domestic economy is not going to
roll over into recession any time soon. US equities are taking on a
new round of "safe haven" status. The movement toward improved
market/economic confidence and safe haven status are in the early
stages of their development. We have confidence in our 2190-2290
year-end target for the S&P 500 with cyclical sectors leading as they
have since the February 11th lows.
Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics: The U.S. economy is performing
well and its prospects are good. Despite a serious of global shocks,
the U.S. economy will soon achieve full employment.