ABSTRACT

There is very little guidance available in world regulatory regimes or the literature on how to
assess the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from a project being considered in an
environmental impact assessment (EIA). In practice, a valued component (VC) related to climate
and GHGs is frequently established for assessment as one of the following: climate, a change in
greenhouse gas emissions, or simply greenhouse gases, or effects of the environment on the
project. The project-environment interaction is then considered in this context. In Canada, the
federal requirements (CEAA, 2003) are to identify mitigation measures, quantify GHG emissions
from the project, categorize emissions as low, medium, or high (these are not clearly defined),
and compare to releases from the industrial sector, the region, province, country, and the global
total. Climate change considerations are also described. In this paper, this view is challenged on
the basis of assessment experiences with regulatory agencies, public information sessions, and
the legal community, on projects ranging from hydroelectric power generation to large petroleum
refineries in Canada, and beyond. New ideas on significance are presented that include
consideration of thresholds, the magnitudes of releases and emission intensities.

TABLE OF CONTENT

ABSTRACT
CHAPTER 1
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Background of study
1.3 Aim of study

CHAPTER 2
2.1 Literature review
2.2 Methodology

CHAPTER 3
3.1 What is Greenhouse effect?
3.2 Types of Greenhouse gases
3.3 Global warming potential (GWP)
3.4 Trends in Greenhouse gas concentration
3.5 Global emission by source
3.6 Emission by country
3.7 Bodies other than earth

CHAPTER 4
4.1 Consequences of enhanced Greenhouse effect
4.2 Potential Impact on human life

CHAPTER 5
5.1 The way forward
5.2 Conclusion

References

CHAPTER 1

1.1 Introduction

One of the hardest lessons taught by climate change is that the economic model
which drives growth, and the profligate consumption in rich nations that goes with
it, is ecologically unsustainable. There could be no greater challenge to our
assumptions about progress than that of realigning economic activities and
consumption with ecological realities.
Combating climate change demands that we place ecological imperatives at the heart
of economics. United Nations Human Development Report6
In this paper i review current science, from the most credible sources, to help
provide an understanding of the basis for, and the scale of, the global warming
problem and the kind of contribution that might make to its solution. I hope that
with this information, the authorities in charge of the situation can engage in serious
discussions about the tools both policy and technological needed to prevent
dangerous global warming. I recognize global warming as the present and credible
threat of climate change. I do not recommend specific policies, but rather seek here
to benchmark what the short, medium and longer term GHG reduction targets must
be if we are to fulfill our fair share of meeting the global challenge.

1.2 BACKGROUND OF STUDY

Since the Industrial Revolution began in the late 1700s, people have added a significant amount
of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, cutting down forests, and
conducting other activities .When greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere, many remain there for long time periods ranging from a decade to many millennia. Over time, these
gases are removed from the atmosphere by emissions sinks, such as oceans, vegetation, or

chemical reactions. Emissions sinks are the opposite of emissions sources, and they absorb and
store emissions or cause the gases to break down. However, if these gases enter the atmosphere
more quickly than they can be removed, their concentrations increase. Many greenhouse gases
remain in the atmosphere for decades or longer. The greenhouse gases being reported here
become well mixed throughout the entire global atmosphere because of their long lifetimes and
because of transport by winds. Concentrations of other greenhouse gases such as tropospheric
ozone, which has an atmospheric lifetime of hours to days, often vary regionally and are not
included in this indicator. Concentrations of greenhouse gases are measured in parts per million
(ppm), parts per billion (ppb), or parts per trillion (ppt) by volume. In other words, a
concentration of 1 ppb for a given gas means there is one part of that gas in 1 billion parts of a
given amount of air. For some greenhouse gases, even changes as small as a few parts per trillion
can make a difference in global climate.

1.3 AIM OF STUDY

The purpose of this study is to quantify the main sources of GHG emissions from the worlds
dairy cattle sector, and to assess the relative contribution of different production systems and
products to total emissions from the dairy sector.
This assessment produces estimates of GHG emissions for:
major dairy cattle products and related services;
predominant dairy production systems (e.g. grass-based, mixed crop-livestock);
main world regions and agro-ecological zones; and
major production stages along the dairy food chain.
By providing the most accurate information available, this assessment will help IDF and FAO to
design cost-effective policy and technical options that can mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
from the dairy sector. Options for reducing GHG emissions range from improving practices
within a given system, to shifting to a lower-impact production system, where feasible.

CHAPTER 2
2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW
Global warming from the increase in greenhouse gases has become a major scientific and
political issue during the past decade. That infrared radiation is trapped by greenhouse gases and
particles in a planetary atmosphere and that the atmospheric CO2 level has increased by some 25
percent since 1850 because of fossil fuel combustion and land use (largely deforestation) are not
controversial; levels of other trace greenhouse gases such as methane and chlorofluorocarbons
have increased by even larger factors. Estimates of present and future effects, however, have
significant uncertainties. There have also recently been controversial claims that a global
warming signal has been detected. Results from most recent climatic models suggest that global
average surface temperatures will increase by some 2deg. to 6deg.C during the next century, but
future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations and feedback processes not properly accounted
for in the models could produce greater or smaller increases. Sea level rises of 0.5 to 1.5 meters
are typically projected for the next century, but there is a small probability of greater or even
negative change. Forecasts of the distribution of variables such as soil moisture or precipitation
pattern have even greater uncertainties. Policy responses range from engineering
countermeasures to passive adaptation to prevention and a "law of the atmosphere." One
approach is to implement those policies now that will reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and
have additional societal benefits. Whether the uncertainties are large enough to suggest delaying
policy responses is not a scientific question per se, but a value judgment.

2.2 METHODOLOGY
To explore trade impacts on lower-income countries, we first define a set of low-GHG
Consumption behaviors that have gained traction in recent analyses. We then explore the
Trade-related impacts of these behaviors on lower-income countries, defined here as all
Countries that the World Bank categorizes as low or medium-income.4 our primary tool for
Analysis is a global, multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model, a type of tool that has
Become common in assessing the GHG and economic impacts of trade (Minx et al. 2009;
Weidman et al. 2011)

CHAPTER 3
3.1 What is Greenhouse Effect ?
The Greenhouse Effect is a term that refers to a physical property of the Earth's atmosphere. If
the Earth had no atmosphere, its average surface temperature would be very low of about 18
rather than the comfortable 15 found today. The difference in temperature is due to a suite of
gases called greenhouse gases which affect the overall energy balance of the Earth's system by
absorbing infrared radiation. In its existing state, the Earthatmosphere system balances
absorption of solar radiation by emission of infrared radiation to space (Fig. 1). Due to
greenhouse gases, the atmosphere absorbs more infrared energy than it reradiates to space,
resulting in a net warming of the Earthatmosphere system and of surface temperature. This
is the Natural Greenhouse Effect. With more greenhouse gases released to the atmosphere due
to human activity, more infrared radiation will be trapped in the Earth's surface which contributes
to the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect.

3.2 Types of Greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gases comprise less than 1% of the atmosphere. Their levels are determined by a
balance between sources and sinks. Sources and sinks are processes that generate and

destroy greenhouse gases respectively. Human affect greenhouse gas levels by introducing new
sources or by interfering with natural sinks.
The major greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are
carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O),
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and ozone (O3). Atmospheric water vapour (H2O) also makes a
large contribution to the natural greenhouse effect but it is thought that its presence is not directly
affected by human activity.

3.3 Global Warming Potential (GWP)

Different greenhouse gases exert different effects on the Earth's energy balance. In order to assist
policymakers to measure the impact of various greenhouse gases on global warming, the concept
of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) was introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) in its 1990 report. GWP reflects the relative strength of individual
greenhouse gas with respect to its impact on global warming. It was defined as the cumulative
radiative forcing* between the present and some future time caused by a unit mass of greenhouse
gas emitted now, expressed relative to CO2.
Global Warming Potentials take into account the differing atmospheric lifetimes and abilities of
various gases to absorb radiation. Derivations of GWPs requires knowledge of the fate of the
emitted gas (typically not well understood) and the radiative forcing due to the amount remaining
in the atmosphere (reasonably well understood). Hence, GWPs encompass certain uncertainty,

typically + 35% relative to COreference. understood). Hence, GWPs encompass certain

uncertainty, typically + 35% relative to CO2 reference.

* Radiative forcing is defined as a change in average net radiation at the top of the troposphere
(tropopause) due to a change in either solar or infrared radiation. A radiative forcing perturbs the
balance between incoming and outgoing radiation. A positive radiative forcing tends on average
to warm the Earth's surface; a negative radiative forcing tends on average to cool the Earth's
surface.

3.4 Trends in greenhouse gas concentrations

a) Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Highquality observations of the concentration of CO2 began in 1958, with flask measurements at
the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. Fig. 2 shows that the average annual concentration of
CO2 in the atmosphere has risen from about 315 ppmv (part per million by volume) in 1958 to
around 363 ppmv in 1997. There is a clear annual cycle in the Mauna Loa data that corresponds
to the annual cycle of plant respiration in the Northern Hemisphere : CO2 concentration increase
during the Fall and Winter and decline during Spring and Summer. This cycle, follows the
growth and die back of vegetation, is reversed and of smaller amplitude in the Southern
Hemisphere, and disappears almost entirely in the data measured near the Equator.

b) Methane (CH4)

The rate of increase of the atmospheric abundance of methane has declined over the last decade,
slowing dramatically in 1991 to 1992, though with an apparent increase in the growth rate in late
1993 .The average trend over 1980 to 1990 is about 13 ppbv/year (part per billion by
volume/year).

c) Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

Over the last four decades, the average growth rate of N2O is about 0.25%/year. Current
tropospheric concentration of N2O is around 312 to 314 ppbv.

d) Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
Among the family compounds of chlorocarbons, CFCl3 (CFC11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC12)
are receiving more attention because of their larger concentrations and potentially significant
effects on stratospheric ozone. CFC11 and CFC12 have the highest concentrations of the
manmade chlorocarbons, around 0.27 and 0.55 ppbv, respectively (measured at Mauna Loa in
1997, Fig. 5 & 6). As indicated in their GWP values, these two gases are strong infrared
absorbers. It is thought that CFC11 and CFC12 have contributed about onethird of the radiative
forcing of gases other than CO2 during the 1980s.

3.5GLOBAL EMMISION BY SOURCE

Global greenhouse gas emissions can also be broken down by the economic activities that lead to
their production.

Energy Supply (26% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - The burning of coal,
natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat is the largest single source of global
greenhouse gas emissions.

Industry (19% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas emissions
from industry primarily involve fossil fuels burned on-site at facilities for energy. This
sector also includes emissions from chemical, metallurgical, and mineral transformation
processes not associated with energy consumption. (Note: Emissions from electricity use
are excluded and are instead covered in the Energy Supply sector.)

Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (17% of 2004 global greenhouse gas
emissions) - Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector primarily include carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions from deforestation, land clearing for agriculture, and fires or decay of
peat soils. This estimate does not include the CO 2 that ecosystems remove from the
atmosphere. The amount of CO 2 that is removed is subject to large uncertainty, although
recent estimates indicate that on a global scale, ecosystems on land remove about twice
as much CO2 as is lost by deforestation. [2]

Agriculture (14% of 2004 GHG emissions) - global greenhouse gas emissions) Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture mostly come from the management of
agricultural soils, livestock, rice production, and biomass burning.

Transportation (13% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas

emissions from this sector primarily involve fossil fuels burned for road, rail, air, and

marine transportation. Almost all (95%) of the world's transportation energy comes from
petroleum-based fuels, largely gasoline and diesel.

Commercial and Residential Buildings (8% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector arise from on-site energy generation and
burning fuels for heat in buildings or cooking in homes. (Note: Emissions from electricity
use are excluded and are instead covered in the Energy Supply sector.)

Waste and Wastewater (3% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - The largest
source of greenhouse gas emissions in this sector is landfill methane (CH 4), followed by
wastewater methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Incineration of some waste products
that were made with fossil fuels, such as plastics and synthetic textiles, also results in
minor emissions of CO2.

3.6 Emissions by Country

In 2008, the top carbon dioxide (CO 2) emitters were China, the United States, the European
Union, India, the Russian Federation, Japan, and Canada. These data include CO 2 emissions from
fossil fuel combustion, as well as cement manufacturing and gas flaring. Together, these sources
represent a large proportion of total global CO2 emissions.
Emissions and sinks related to changes in land use are not included in these estimates. However,
changes in land use can be important - global estimates indicate that deforestation can account
for 5 billion metric tons of CO 2 emissions, or about 16% of emissions from fossil fuel sources.
Tropical deforestation in Africa, Asia, and South America are thought to be the largest
contributors to emissions from land-use change globally. [3] In areas such as the United States and

Europe, changes in land use associated with human activities have the net effect of absorbing
CO2, partially offsetting the emissions from deforestation in other regions.

3.7 Bodies other than Earth

In the Solar System, Mars, Venus, and the moon Titan also exhibit greenhouse effects; that on
Venus is particularly large, due to its atmosphere, which consists mainly of dense carbon dioxide.
[37]

Titan has an anti-greenhouse effect, in that its atmosphere absorbs solar radiation but is

relatively transparent to infrared radiation. Pluto also exhibits behavior superficially similar to
the anti-greenhouse effect.[38][39]
A runaway greenhouse effect occurs if positive feedbacks lead to the evaporation of all
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.[40] A runaway greenhouse effect involving carbon dioxide
and water vapor is thought to have occurred on Venus.[41]

CHAPTER 4
4.1Consequences of Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
i) Global Warming
Increase of greenhouse gases concentration causes a reduction in outgoing infrared radiation,
thus the Earth's climate must change somehow to restore the balance between incoming and
outgoing radiation. This climatic change will include a global warming of the Earth's surface
and the lower atmosphere as warming up is the simplest way for the climate to get rid of the
extra energy. However, a small rise in temperature will induce many other changes, for example,

cloud cover and wind patterns. Some of these changes may act to enhance the warming (positive
feedbacks), others to counteract it (negative feedbacks).
Using complex climate models, the "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" in their third
assessment report has forecast that global mean surface temperature will rise by 1.4 to 5.8
by the end of 2100. This projection takes into account the effects of aerosols which tend to cool
the climate as well as the delaying effects of the oceans which have a large thermal capacity.
However, there are many uncertainties associated with this projection such as future emission
rates of greenhouse gases, climate feedbacks, and the size of the ocean delay ...etc.

ii) Sea Level Rise

If global warming takes place, sea level will rise due to two different processes. Firstly, warmer
temperature cause sea level to rise due to the thermal expansion of seawater. Secondly, water
from melting glaciers and the ice sheets of Greenland and the Antarctica would also add water
to the ocean. It is predicted that the Earth's average sea level will rise by 0.09 to 0.88 m
between 1990 and 2100.

4.2 Potential Impact on human life

a) Economic Impact
Over half of the human population lives within 100 kilometres of the sea. Most of this population
lives in urban areas that serve as seaports. A measurable rise in sea level will have a severe
economic impact on lowlying coastal areas and islands, for examples, increasing the beach
erosion rates along coastlines, rising sea level displacing fresh groundwater for a substantial
distance inland.

b) Agricultural Impact
Experiments have shown that with higher concentrations of CO2, plants can grow bigger and
faster. However, the effect of global warming may affect the atmospheric general circulation and
thus altering the global precipitation pattern as well as changing the soil moisture contents over
various continents. Since it is unclear how global warming will affect climate on a regional or
local scale, the probable effects on the biosphere remains uncertain.
c) Effects on Aquatic systems
The loss of coastal wetlands could certainly reduce fish populations, especially shellfish.
Increased salinity in estuaries could reduce the abundance of freshwater species but could
increase the presence of marine species. However, the full impact on marine species is not
known.
d) Effects on Hydrological Cycle
Global precipitation is likely to increase. However, it is not known how regional rainfall patterns
will change. Some regions may have more rainfall, while others may have less. Furthermore,
higher temperatures would probably increase evaporation. These changes would probably create
new stresses for many water management systems.

CHAPTER 5
5.1The way forward practical guidance
The consideration of GHGs in EIA has evolved from barely being mentioned to a detailed
consideration of mitigation, quantification, with preparation of the GHG Management Plan.
Currently, adaptation plans are being completed, but this is often exterior to the EIA.
The scientific link between the release of GHGs to the atmosphere and a change in climate is
strengthening (NRC 2011); hence, the need to consider and adapt to those changes is becoming

more acute. While there is no simple cause and effect relationship between GHGs and
adaptation, the prudent path is to consider the potential changes and prepare for them ahead of
time.
Mitigation and adaptation are almost always treated separately. In our experience, when it does
happen, adaptation is brought in to the EIA in the form of assessing the potential effects of the
environment on the project. This focuses on climate and seismic histories and predictions of how
future changes or events may cause effects, such as change in precipitation volumes in a certain
area. The two are closely linked, and an integrated approach is desired, where the EIA practice
looks at these other initiatives and incorporates the results into the EIA to better inform the
decision makers. 5
Practical guidance is proposed on the basis of the literature review, discussions with
practitioners, and experience on several types of projects (Table 1). A value representing the total
direct emissions of a project on an annual basis is the reference point for entry into the process.

5.2Conclusions
Practical guidance on how to address GHGs and climate in EIA is proposed on the basis of
literature review, discussions with practitioners, and experience on several types of industrial
projects. Mitigation and adaptation should be addressed in EIA to ensure both risks and benefits
are identified, and to ensure the project will deliver on what it is designed to do. Thresholds,

presented as tonnes of CO2e per year, are proposed as one basis for specific consideration of the
specific elements to be assessed in the EIA.

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