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DISTRIBUCIONES TERICAS

TABULACIN A
N de interv.

Precipitacin

N de interv.

Precipitacin

10.9

39

21.3

14.6

40

17.2

20.6

41

36.1

11.9

42

49.5

64

43

20

20.9

44

4.6

32

45

27.3

28.8

46

49.7

2.6

47

34.6

10

35.8

48

49

11

17.7

49

25.3

12

38.4

50

27.2

13

16.3

51

38.8

14

6.8

52

52.4

15

17

53

11.5

16

6.8

54

15.8

17

25.3

55

70

18

36.3

56

24

19

16.5

57

16.5

20

8.7

58

5.7

21

2.9

59

15.5

22

8.9

60

18.5

23

32.3

61

30.7

24

56.6

62

10.5

25

3.6

63

3.5

26

11

64

13.9

27

52.5

65

4.3

28

46.3

66

22.6

29

5.2

67

45

30

42.5

68

10

31

17.5

69

9.6

32

64.5

70

22.7

33

28

71

23

34

19.6

72

26.2

35

30.9

73

31.7

36

27.5

74

29.9

37

10.3

75

25.9

76

34.5

38

21.1
DISTRIBUCIN DE FRECUENCIA

76

V. Mayor

70

mm.

(Ls)

V. Mayor

2.6

mm.

(Li)

Rango
Rango

=
=

Ls - Li
67.4

mm.

"m"

N de Intervalos a Usar:
m
m

=
=

2.5*((N)^(1/4))
7.38

m
m

=
=

1.33*LnN +1
6.76

m'

"C"

Amplitud Intervlica:
C
C

=
=

R/m'
9.63

mm.

C'

10

mm.

"R'"

Nuevo Rango:
R'
R'

mm.

=
=

C' * m'
70

mm.

Correccin de Lmites:
e
e

=
=

(R' - R)/2
1.3

Ls'
Li'

=
=

Ls + e
Li - e

=
=

71.3
1.3

Si al efectuar esta operacin resulta valor


negativo se va a asumir cero (0):

N de

Marca de

Intervalo

N de

Probabilidad Probabilidad

1.3

intervalos

Clase

de Clase

datos en
Interval
o

6.3

1.3 - 11.3

18

0.24

0.24

16.35

11.4 - 21.3

20

0.26

0.50

26.35

21.4 - 31.3

16

0.21

0.71

36.35

31.4 - 41.4

10

0.13

0.84

46.35

41.4 - 51.5

0.08

0.92

56.35

51.4 - 61.6

0.04

0.96

66.35

61.4 - 71.7

0.04

1.00

Pi

acumulada

Con la informacin de la tabulacin A obtener la cultura de lluvia para una


probabilidad acumulada de 80%
A) GRAFICO DISTRIBUCIN DE FRECUENCIA:

B) GRAFICO DE DISTRIBUCIN DE PROBABILIDAD:

C) GRAFICO DE DISTRIBUCIN ACUMULADA DE PROBABILIDAD

Tabla 1: "DISTRIBUCION NORMAL ACUMULADA"

F( z )

1
e / 2
2

F( z ) 1 F( z )

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.5000000

0.5039894

0.5079783

0.5119665

0.5159534

0.5199388

0.5239222

0.5279032

0.5318814

0.5358564

0.1

0.5398278

0.5437953

0.5477584

0.5517168

0.5556700

0.5596177

0.5635595

0.5674949

0.5714237

0.5753454

0.1

0.2

0.5792597

0.5831662

0.5870644

0.5909541

0.5948349

0.5987063

0.6025681

0.6064199

0.6102612

0.6140919

0.2

0.3

0.6179114

0.6217195

0.6255158

0.6293000

0.6330717

0.6368307

0.6405764

0.6443088

0.6480273

0.6517317

0.3

0.4

0.6554217

0.6590970

0.6627573

0.6664022

0.6700314

0.6736448

0.6772419

0.6808225

0.6843863

0.6879331

0.4

0.5

0.6914625

0.6949743

0.6984682

0.7019440

0.7054015

0.7088403

0.7122603

0.7156612

0.7190427

0.7224047

0.5

0.6

0.7257469

0.7290691

0.7323711

0.7356527

0.7389137

0.7421539

0.7453731

0.7485711

0.7517478

0.7549029

0.6

0.7

0.7580363

0.7611479

0.7642375

0.7673049

0.7703500

0.7733726

0.7763727

0.7793501

0.7823046

0.7852361

0.7

0.8

0.7881446

0.7910299

0.7938919

0.7967306

0.7995458

0.8023375

0.8051055

0.8078498

0.8105703

0.8132671

0.8

0.9

0.8159399

0.8185887

0.8212136

0.8238145

0.8263912

0.8289439

0.8314724

0.8339768

0.8364569

0.8389129

0.9

0.8413447

0.8437524

0.8461358

0.8484950

0.8508300

0.8531409

0.8554277

0.8576903

0.8599289

0.8621434

1.1

0.8643339

0.8665005

0.8686431

0.8707619

0.8728568

0.8749281

0.8769756

0.8789995

0.8809999

0.8829768

1.1

1.2

0.8849303

0.8868606

0.8887676

0.8906514

0.8925123

0.8943502

0.8961653

0.8979577

0.8997274

0.9014747

1.2

1.3

0.9031995

0.9049021

0.9065825

0.9082409

0.9098773

0.9114920

0.9146565

0.9162067

0.9177356

1.3

0.9264707

0.9130850
0.9278550

1.4

0.9192433

0.9207302

0.9221962

0.9236415

0.9250663

1.5

0.9331928

0.9344783

0.9357445

0.9369916

0.9382198

0.9292191

0.9305634

0.9318879

1.4

0.9394292

0.9406201

0.9417924

0.9429466

0.9440826

1.5

1.6

0.9452007

0.9463011

0.9473839

0.9484493

0.9494974

0.9505285

0.9515428

0.9525403

0.9535213

0.9544860

1.6

1.7

0.9554345

0.9563671

0.9572838

0.9581849

0.9590705

0.9599408

0.9607961

0.9616364

0.9624620

0.9632730

1.7

1.8

0.9640697

0.9648521

1.9

0.9656205

0.9663750

0.9671159

0.9678432

0.9685572

0.9692581

0.9699460

0.9706210

1.8

0.9712834

0.9719334

0.9725711

0.9731966

0.9738102

0.9744119

0.9750021

0.9755808

0.9761482

0.9767045

1.9

0.9772499

0.9777844

0.9783083

0.9788217

0.9793248

0.9798178

0.9803007

0.9807738

0.9812372

0.9816911

2.1

0.9821356

0.9825708

0.9829970

0.9834142

0.9838226

0.9842224

0.9846137

0.9849966

0.9853713

0.9857379

2.1

2.2

0.9860966

0.9864474

0.9867906

0.9871263

0.9874545

0.9877755

0.9880894

0.9883962

0.9886962

0.9889893

2.2

2.3

0.9892759

0.9895559

0.9898296

0.9900969

0.9903581

0.9906133

0.9908625

0.9911060

0.9913437

0.9915758

2.3

2.4

0.9918025

0.9920237

0.9922397

0.9924506

0.9926564

0.9928572

0.9930531

0.9932443

0.9934309

0.9936128

2.4

2.5

0.9937903

0.9939634

0.9941323

0.9942969

0.9944574

0.9946139

0.9947664

0.9949151

0.9950600

0.9952012

2.5

2.6

0.9953388

0.9954729

0.9956035

0.9957308

0.9958547

0.9959754

0.9960930

0.9962074

0.9963189

0.9964274

2.6

2.7

0.9965330

0.9966358

0.9967359

0.9968333

0.9969280

0.9970202

0.9971099

0.9971972

0.9972821

0.9973646

2.7

2.8

0.9974449

0.9975229

0.9975988

0.9976726

0.9977443

0.9978140

0.9978818

0.9979476

0.9980116

0.9980738

2.8

2.9

0.9981342

0.9981929

0.9982498

0.9983052

0.9983589

0.9984111

0.9984618

0.9985110

0.9985588

0.9986051

2.9

0.9986501

0.9986938

0.9987361

0.9987772

0.9988171

0.9988558

0.9988933

0.9989297

0.9989650

0.9989992

3.1

0.9990324

0.9990646

0.9990957

0.9991260

0.9991553

0.9991836

0.9992112

0.9992378

0.9992636

0.9992886

3.1

3.2

0.9993129

0.9993363

0.9993590

0.9993810

0.9994024

0.9994230

0.9994429

0.9994623

0.9994810

0.9994991

3.2

3.3

0.9995166

0.9995335

0.9995499

0.9995658

0.9995811

0.9995959

0.9996103

0.9996242

0.9996376

0.9996505

3.3

3.4

0.9996631

0.9996752

0.9996869

0.9996982

0.9997091

0.9997197

0.9997299

0.9997398

0.9997493

0.9997585

3.4

3.5

0.9997674

0.9997759

0.9997842

0.9997922

0.9997999

0.9998074

0.9998146

0.9998215

0.9998282

0.9998347

3.5

3.6

0.9998409

0.9998469

0.9998527

0.9998583

0.9998637

0.9998689

0.9998739

0.9998787

0.9998834

0.9998879

3.6

3.7

0.9998922

0.9998964

0.9999004

0.9999043

0.9999080

0.9999116

0.9999150

0.9999184

0.9999216

0.9999247

3.7

3.8

0.9999277

0.9999305

0.9999333

0.9999359

0.9999385

0.9999409

0.9999433

0.9999456

0.9999478

0.9999499

3.8

3.9

0.9999519

0.9999539

0.9999557

0.9999575

0.9999593

0.9999609

0.9999625

0.9999641

0.9999655

0.9999670

3.9

PRUEBAS DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE

Grficamente

.- Uso del Papel Probabilstico Normal

Analticamente

.- Uso Estadstico

- CHI - CUADRADO
- SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV

PRUEBAS DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE DE SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV


Consiste en comparar las diferencias existentes entre la PROBABILIDAD EMPRICA
DE LOS DATOS DE LA MUESTRA y la PROBABILIDAD TERICA, tomando el valor
mximo del valor absoluto, de la diferencia entre el valor observado y el valor de la
recta terica del modelo, es decir:
= mx. |F(X) P(X)|

...

Siendo:

: Estadstico SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV

F(X)

: Probabilidad de la Distribucin de Ajuste o Terica.

P(X)

: Probabilidad Experimental o Emprica de los Datos (Frecuencia acumulada).

Tabla N 2: Valores Crticos de 0 del Estadstico SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV , para


varios valores de N y niveles de significancia .

Tamao de la
muestra N

Nivel de significancia .
0.20

0. l0

0.05

0.01

0.45

0.51

0.56

0.67

10

0.32

0.37

0.41

0.49

15

0.27

0.30

0.34

0.40

20

0.23

0.26

0.29

0.36

25

0.21

0.24

0.27

0.32

30

0.19

0.22

0.24

0.29

35

0.18

0.20

0.23

0.27

40

0.17

0.19

0.21

0.25

45

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.24

50

0.15

0.17

0.19

0.23

1.07

1.22

1.36

1.63

N>50

El Estadstico , tiene su funcin de distribucin de probabilidades.


Si 0 es un valor crtico para un nivel de significancia , se tiene:
P ( 0) =

P ( < 0) = 1 -

PROCEDIMIENTO PARA EFECTUAR EL AJUSTE MEDIANTE EL ESTADSTICO


SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV

1)

Clculo de la Probabilidad Emprica o Experimental, P(X), de los datos (En


funcin de nmero de datos)
NOMBRE

AO

PROBABILIDAD

CALIFORNIA

1923

m/n

HAZEN

1930

(2m-1)/(2N)

WEIBULL

1939

(m)/(N-1)

Donde:
N

: Nmero total de valores de la Muestra.

: Nmero de orden de los valores ordenados de mayor a menor.

til la expresin de WEIBULL


P(X) = (m)/(N-1)

Clculo
n

Xi ; S
i 1

(Xi X )
n 1

Clculo Variable Estandarizada


Z = f (Xi, X, S,)

2)

Clculo de la Probabilidad Terica, F(Z), (Ver tabulacin 1), funcin de los valores
de informacin, Pi, Qi

3)

Clculo: F(Z) P(X)

4)

Seleccionar la Mxima Diferencia:


max mx. F(X ) P( X )

5)

Hallar valor crtico del estadstico 0, para:


= 0.05

6)

N = # de datos. (Ver tabla 1)

Comparar con 0, si:


mx < 0 AJUSTE BUENO
mx 0 AJUSTE NO BUENO

DISTRIBUCIN NORMAL

Funcin Densidad de Probabilidad:


1

f (X )

2.S

1 X X

2
S

Siendo:
F(X)

: Funcin Densidad Normal de Variable (X)

: Variable Independiente

: Media Aritmtica de X

: Desviacin Estndar de X

: Funcin Exponencial.

Es una funcin continua y simtrica con respecto a X.

Funcin Densidad de la Distribucin Normal Estndar:


Si:

XX
S

Funcin Densidad de Z:
1

f (Z )

2.S

z2
e 2

Los Valores: f (X) o f (Z), pueden ser fcilmente evaluados para un valor dado de X o Z.

Expresiones tiles para estimar valores:

Datos originales:
n

xi
i 1

(x i x )
i 1

(n 1)

XX
Sx

Se debe calcular:

P( x )

m
n 1

, para luego establecer:

max mx. F(X ) P( X ) con los datos o informacin que se dispone.

N: Total de Muestra
: Nivel de significancia = 0.05

HOJA DE CLCULO N 01 :AJUSTE MEDIANTE EL ESTADISTICO "SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV"


(1) Sin Redondeo

Q=X

P(X)=
m/
(n+1)

(Xi - X)

Z=
(XiX)/S

(2) Con Redondeo

F(z)

=Abs
(F(z)-P(X))

F(Z)

2.6

0.0130

494.7698

-1.39 0.08192

0.0689

-1.39

0.08226

0.06928

2.9

0.0260

481.5137

-1.37 0.08480

0.0588

-1.37

0.08534

0.05937

3.5

0.0390

455.5416

-1.34 0.09078

0.0518

-1.34

0.09012

0.05116

3.6

0.0519

451.2829

-1.33 0.09181

0.0399

-1.33

0.09176

0.03981

4.3

0.0649

422.0321

-1.29 0.09924

0.0343

-1.29

0.09853

0.03359

4.6

0.0779

409.7961

-1.27 0.10256

0.0246

-1.27

0.10204

0.02412

5.2

0.0909

385.8640

-1.23 0.10943

0.0185

-1.23

0.10935

0.01844

5.7

0.1039

366.4706

-1.20 0.11541

0.0115

-1.20

0.11507

0.01117

6.8

0.1169

325.5650

-1.13 0.12936

0.0125

-1.13

0.12924

0.01235

10

6.8

0.1299

325.5650

-1.13 0.12936

0.0005

-1.13

0.12924

0.00063

11

8.7

0.1429

260.6100

-1.01 0.15613

0.0133

-1.01

0.15625

0.01339

12

8.9

0.1558

254.1927

-1.00 0.15915

0.0033

-1.00

0.15866

0.00281

13

9.6

0.1688

232.3619

-0.95 0.17001

0.0012

-0.95

0.17106

0.00222

14

10

0.1818

220.3271

-0.93 0.17642

0.0054

-0.93

0.17619

0.00563

15

10.3

0.1948

211.5111

-0.91 0.18133

0.0135

-0.91

0.18141

0.01339

16

10.5

0.2078

205.7337

-0.90 0.18464

0.0231

-0.90

0.18406

0.02373

17

10.9

0.2208

194.4190

-0.87 0.19139

0.0294

-0.87

0.19215

0.02863

18

11

0.2338

191.6403

-0.87 0.19311

0.0407

-0.87

0.19215

0.04162

19

11.5

0.2468

178.0469

-0.84 0.20180

0.0450

-0.84

0.20045

0.04630

20

11.9

0.2597

167.5321

-0.81 0.20892

0.0508

-0.81

0.20897

0.05077

21

13.9

0.2727

119.7585

-0.68 0.24668

0.0261

-0.68

0.24825

0.02448

22

14.6

0.2857

104.9277

-0.64 0.26071

0.0250

-0.64

0.26109

0.02463

23

15.5

0.2987

87.2995

-0.58 0.27933

0.0194

-0.58

0.28096

0.01774

24

15.8

0.3117

81.7835

-0.57 0.28568

0.0260

-0.57

0.28434

0.02735

25

16.3

0.3247

72.9900

-0.53 0.29641

0.0283

-0.53

0.29806

0.02662

26

16.5

0.3377

69.6127

-0.52 0.30075

0.0369

-0.52

0.30153

0.03613

27

16.5

0.3506

69.6127

-0.52 0.30075

0.0499

-0.52

0.30153

0.04912

28

17

0.3636

61.5193

-0.49 0.31173

0.0519

-0.49

0.31207

0.05157

29

17.2

0.3766

58.4219

-0.48 0.31617

0.0605

-0.48

0.31561

0.06101

30

17.5

0.3896

53.9258

-0.46 0.32288

0.0667

-0.46

0.32276

0.06685

31

17.7

0.4026

51.0285

-0.45 0.32739

0.0752

-0.45

0.32636

0.07624

32

18.5

0.4156

40.2390

-0.40 0.34566

0.0699

-0.40

0.34458

0.07101

33

19.6

0.4286

27.4935

-0.33 0.37138

0.0572

-0.33

0.37070

0.05787

34

20

0.4416

23.4587

-0.30 0.38088

0.0607

-0.30

0.38209

0.05947

35

20.6

0.4545

18.0066

-0.27 0.39527

0.0593

-0.27

0.39358

0.06097

36

20.9

0.4675

15.5506

-0.25 0.40252

0.0650

-0.25

0.40129

0.06624

37

21.1

0.4805

14.0132

-0.23 0.40737

0.0731

-0.23

0.40905

0.07147

38

21.3

0.4935

12.5558

-0.22 0.41224

0.0813

-0.22

0.41294

0.08057

39

22.6

0.5065

5.0329

-0.14 0.44416

0.0623

-0.14

0.44433

0.06216

40

22.7

0.5195

4.5943

-0.13 0.44664

0.0728

-0.13

0.44828

0.07120

41

23

0.5325

3.3982

-0.12 0.45407

0.0784

-0.12

0.45224

0.08023

42

24

0.5455

0.7114

-0.05 0.47895

0.0665

-0.05

0.48006

0.06539

43

25.3

0.5584

0.2085

0.03 0.51140

0.0470

0.03

0.51197

0.04648

44

25.3

0.5714

0.2085

0.03 0.51140

0.0600

0.03

0.51197

0.05946

45

25.9

0.5844

1.1164

0.07 0.52636

0.0581

0.07

0.52790

0.05651

46

26.2

0.5974

1.8403

0.08 0.53383

0.0636

0.08

0.53188

0.06552

47

27.2

0.6104

5.5535

0.15 0.55863

0.0518

0.15

0.55962

0.05077

48

27.3

0.6234

6.0348

0.15 0.56110

0.0623

0.15

0.55962

0.06376

49

27.5

0.6364

7.0574

0.17 0.56603

0.0703

0.17

0.56749

0.06887

50

28.5

0.6494

13.3706

0.23 0.59052

0.0588

0.23

0.59095

0.05840

51

28.8

0.6623

15.6545

0.25 0.59780

0.0645

0.25

0.59871

0.06363

52

29.9

0.6753

25.5690

0.32 0.62419

0.0511

0.32

0.62552

0.04981

53

30.7

0.6883

34.2995

0.37 0.64304

0.0453

0.37

0.64431

0.04400

54

30.9

0.7013

36.6821

0.38 0.64769

0.0536

0.38

0.64803

0.05327

55

31.7

0.7143

47.0127

0.43 0.66610

0.0482

0.43

0.66640

0.04788

56

32

0.7273

51.2166

0.45 0.67291

0.0544

0.45

0.67364

0.05363

57

32.3

0.7403

55.6006

0.47 0.67965

0.0606

0.47

0.68082

0.05944

58

34.5

0.7532

93.2495

0.60 0.72722

0.0260

0.60

0.72575

0.02750

59

34.6

0.7662

95.1908

0.61 0.72930

0.0369

0.61

0.72907

0.03716

60

35.8

0.7792

120.0466

0.69 0.75358

0.0256

0.69

0.75490

0.02432

61

36.1

0.7922

126.7106

0.70 0.75947

0.0327

0.70

0.75804

0.03417

62

36.3

0.8052

131.2532

0.72 0.76335

0.0418

0.72

0.76424

0.04096

63

38.4

0.8182

183.7808

0.85 0.80194

0.0162

0.85

0.80234

0.01584

64

38.8

0.8312

194.7861

0.87 0.80883

0.0223

0.87

0.80785

0.02332

65

42.5

0.8442

311.7548

1.11 0.86546

0.0213

1.11

0.86650

0.02234

66

45

0.8571

406.2877

1.26 0.89647

0.0393

1.26

0.89617

0.03902

67

46.3

0.8701

460.3848

1.34 0.91037

0.0402

1.34

0.90988

0.03975

68

49

0.8831

583.5403

1.51 0.93474

0.0516

1.51

0.93448

0.05136

69

49.5

0.8961

607.9469

1.54 0.93863

0.0425

1.54

0.93822

0.04212

70

49.7

0.9091

617.8495

1.56 0.94013

0.0310

1.56

0.94062

0.03153

71

52.4

0.9221

759.3650

1.72 0.95772

0.0356

1.72

0.95728

0.03521

72

52.5

0.9351

764.8864

1.73 0.95829

0.0232

1.73

0.95818

0.02312

73

56.6

0.9481

1008.4803

1.99 0.97658

0.0285

1.99

0.97670

0.02865

74

64

0.9610

1533.2377

2.45 0.99288

0.0318

2.45

0.99286

0.03182

75

64.5

0.9740

1572.6443

2.48 0.99347

0.0194

2.48

0.99343

0.01940

76

70

0.9870

2039.1166

2.83 0.99765

0.0106

2.83

0.99767

0.01066

= 1888

= 19142.6467

max=

0.0813

X= 24.84

S= 15.9760849

o=

0.2

n=

76

max= 0.08057
para
= 0.05

Resultado del Anlisis:

AJUSTE BUENO (max < o)

La informacin es:
CONFIABLE
(1) Sin Redondeo: Clculos con todos los decimales, grabados en memoria interna.
(2) Con Redondeo: Clculos con los decimales de las tablas, decimales
redondeados.
HALLAR EL CAUDAL Q PARA UN TIEMPO DE RETORNO T = 10, 20, 25, 50, 100

Para T = 10 aos

1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )

F(Z ) 1

1
F(Z ) 0.9
10

F(Z)
0.89973

Z
1.28
Z (I)
1.29

0.9
0.90147

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 1.281551724

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

XX
Sx

1.281551724

X 24.84
X 45.31417915
15.9760849

Q=45 m3/s

Para T = 20 aos

1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )

F( Z ) 1
F(Z)
0.94950
0.95
0.95053

1
F(Z ) 0.95
20
Z
1.64
Z (I)
1.65

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 1.644854369

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

XX
Sx

1.64485436 9

X 24.84
X 51.11833305
15.9760849

Q=51 m3/s

Para T = 25 aos

1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )

F( Z ) 1

1
F(Z ) 0.96
25

F(Z)
0.95994
0.96
0.96080

Z
1.75
Z (I)
1.76

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 1.750697674

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

XX
Sx

1.750697674

X 24.84
X 52.80929467
15.9760849

Q=53 m3/s

Para T = 50 aos
1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )

1
F(Z ) 0.98
50

F( Z ) 1
F(Z)
0.97982

Z
1.75
Z (I)
1.76

0.98
0.98030

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) =2.05375

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

XX
Sx

2.05375

X 24.84
X 57.65088436
15.9760849

Q=58 m3/s

Para T = 100 aos

1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )

F( Z ) 1

1
F(Z ) 0.99
100

F(Z)
0.98983
0.99
0.99010

Z
2.32
Z (I)
2.33

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 2.326296296

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

XX
Sx

2.32629629 6

X 24.84
X 62.00510713
15.9760849

Q=62 m3/s

DISTRIBUCIN LOGARITMICA NORMAL DE 2 PARMETROS

Y LnX

Funcin Densidad:
Donde:
X = Pi, Qi, I,

La Funcin de Distribucin de Y es:

f (Y)

y 2

Donde :

Si

1 y uy
2 y

Media

uy

Varianza

y2

f (y), lo ponemos como f (x)


f ( X ) f ( Y ) dy / dx

Donde :

dy /dx = 1/x

Por lo tanto; la funcin de Distribucin de la Probabilidad de X, es:

1
e
x. y . 2

f (X )

Donde:

1 ln X u y
2
y

y uy
y

Expresiones tiles para estimar valores:

Datos originales:
n

i 1

( x i x )

(n 1)

Varianza

Media

max mx. F(X ) P( X )

P( x )

Hallo 0

m
n 1

i 1

y ln(1 (CVx )2 )

Siendo:

xi

1
x
ln(
)
2
1 CVx2

CVx

Sx
x

Tener Nivel de significancia.


HOJA DE CLCULO N 02: "DISTRIBUCION LOG. NORMAL"

Q=X

P(X)=
m/
(n+1)

z=(Ln(Q)y)/y

F(z)

[F(z)P(x)]

=Abs
[F(z)P(x)]

2.6

0.0130

-3.5425

0.00020 -0.01279

0.01279

2.9

0.0260

-3.3568

0.00039 -0.02558

0.0256

3.5

0.0390

-3.0372

0.00119 -0.03777

0.0378

3.6

0.0519

-2.9893

0.00140 -0.05055

0.0505

4.3

0.0649

-2.6873

0.00360 -0.06134

0.0613

4.6

0.0779

-2.5726

0.00505 -0.07287

0.0729

5.2

0.0909

-2.3642

0.00903 -0.08188

0.0819

5.7

0.1039

-2.2082

0.01362 -0.09028

0.0903

6.8

0.1169

-1.9082

0.02818 -0.08870

0.0887

10

6.8

0.1299

-1.9082

0.02818 -0.10169

0.1017

11

8.7

0.1429

-1.4894

0.06819 -0.07467

0.0747

12

8.9

0.1558

-1.4508

0.07342 -0.08242

0.0824

13

9.6

0.1688

-1.3221

0.09307 -0.07576

0.0758

14

10

0.1818

-1.2527

0.10516 -0.07666

0.0767

15

10.3

0.1948

-1.2024

0.11460 -0.08021

0.0802

16

10.5

0.2078

-1.1698

0.12105 -0.08674

0.0867

17

10.9

0.2208

-1.1062

0.13432 -0.08646

0.0865

18

11

0.2338

-1.0907

0.13771 -0.09606

0.0961

19

11.5

0.2468

-1.0151

0.15502 -0.09173

0.0917

20

11.9

0.2597

-0.9570

0.16928 -0.09046

0.0905

21

13.9

0.2727

-0.6929

0.24417 -0.02856

0.0286

22

14.6

0.2857

-0.6094

0.27112 -0.01459

0.0146

23

15.5

0.2987

-0.5077

0.30582

0.00712

0.0071

24

15.8

0.3117

-0.4752

0.31734

0.00565

0.0057

25

16.3

0.3247

-0.4222

0.33644

0.01176

0.0118

26

16.5

0.3377

-0.4015

0.34404

0.00638

0.0064

27

16.5

0.3506

-0.4015

0.34404 -0.00661

0.0066

28

17

0.3636

-0.3507

0.36290 -0.00074

0.0007

29

17.2

0.3766

-0.3308

0.37038 -0.00624

0.0062

30

17.5

0.3896

-0.3015

0.38154 -0.00807

0.0081

31

17.7

0.4026

-0.2821

0.38892 -0.01368

0.0137

32

18.5

0.4156

-0.2070

0.41801

0.00243

0.0024

33

19.6

0.4286

-0.1088

0.45668

0.02811

0.0281

34

20

0.4416

-0.0745

0.47032

0.02876

0.0288

35

20.6

0.4545

-0.0242

0.49034

0.03579

0.0358

36

20.9

0.4675

0.0003

0.50014

0.03261

0.0326

37

21.1

0.4805

0.0165

0.50660

0.02608

0.0261

38

21.3

0.4935

0.0326

0.51299

0.01948

0.0195

39

22.6

0.5065

0.1333

0.55301

0.04652

0.0465

40

22.7

0.5195

0.1408

0.55598

0.03650

0.0365

41

23

0.5325

0.1631

0.56478

0.03231

0.0323

42

24

0.5455

0.2354

0.59307

0.04762

0.0476

43

25.3

0.5584

0.3251

0.62745

0.06901

0.0690

44

25.3

0.5714

0.3251

0.62745

0.05602

0.0560

45

25.9

0.5844

0.3649

0.64242

0.05800

0.0580

46

26.2

0.5974

0.3845

0.64970

0.05230

0.0523

47

27.2

0.6104

0.4482

0.67299

0.06260

0.0626

48

27.3

0.6234

0.4544

0.67524

0.05186

0.0519

49

27.5

0.6364

0.4668

0.67969

0.04333

0.0433

50

28.5

0.6494

0.5276

0.70110

0.05175

0.0517

51

28.8

0.6623

0.5454

0.70724

0.04490

0.0449

52

29.9

0.6753

0.6091

0.72876

0.05344

0.0534

53

30.7

0.6883

0.6539

0.74343

0.05512

0.0551

54

30.9

0.7013

0.6650

0.74697

0.04567

0.0457

55

31.7

0.7143

0.7084

0.76066

0.04637

0.0464

56

32

0.7273

0.7244

0.76560

0.03833

0.0383

57

32.3

0.7403

0.7403

0.77044

0.03018

0.0302

58

34.5

0.7532

0.8523

0.80298

0.04973

0.0497

59

34.6

0.7662

0.8572

0.80434

0.03811

0.0381

60

35.8

0.7792

0.9152

0.81995

0.04073

0.0407

61

36.1

0.7922

0.9294

0.82365

0.03144

0.0314

62

36.3

0.8052

0.9388

0.82607

0.02088

0.0209

63

38.4

0.8182

1.0344

0.84952

0.03134

0.0313

64

38.8

0.8312

1.0520

0.85359

0.02242

0.0224

65

42.5

0.8442

1.2068

0.88625

0.04209

0.0421

66

45

0.8571

1.3040

0.90388

0.04674

0.0467

67

46.3

0.8701

1.3524

0.91187

0.04174

0.0417

68

49

0.8831

1.4487

0.92629

0.04317

0.0432

69

49.5

0.8961

1.4660

0.92867

0.03257

0.0326

70

49.7

0.9091

1.4728

0.92960

0.02051

0.0205

71

52.4

0.9221

1.5627

0.94094

0.01886

0.0189

72

52.5

0.9351

1.5660

0.94132

0.00626

0.0063

73

56.6

0.9481

1.6938

0.95485

0.00680

0.0068

74

64

0.9610

1.9027

0.97146

0.01042

0.0104

75

64.5

0.9740

1.9159

0.97231 -0.00172

0.0017

76

70

0.9870

2.0550

0.98006 -0.00695

0.0070

1888

-9.6297

max=

x = 24.843
n=
76

S=

15.97608492

o=

CVx=

0.643071052

0.1017
0.2 para =

0.05

= 0.5883
= 3.0395

Resultado del Anlisis:


La informacin es:

AJUSTE BUENO (max < o)


CONFIABLE

HALLAR EL CAUDAL Q PARA UN TIEMPO DE RETORNO T = 10, 20, 25, 50, 100

Para T = 10 aos

1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )

F(Z ) 1

1
F(Z ) 0.9
10

F(Z)
0.89973

Z
1.28
Z (I)
1.29

0.9
0.90147

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 1.281551724

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

Y y
y

1.281551724

LnX 3.0395
X 44.40876586
0.5883

Q=44 m3/s

Para T = 20 aos

1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )

F( Z ) 1
F(Z)
0.94950
0.95
0.95053

1
F(Z ) 0.95
20
Z
1.64
Z (I)
1.65

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 1.644854369

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

Y y
y

1.64485436 9

LnX 3.0395
X 54.99090595
0.5883

Q=55 m3/s

Para T = 25 aos

1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )

F( Z ) 1

1
F(Z ) 0.96
25

F(Z)
0.95994

Z
1.75
Z (I)
1.76

0.96
0.96080

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 1.750697674

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

Y y
y

1.75069767 4

LnX 3.0395
X 58.5239131
0.5883

Q=59 m3/s

Para T = 50 aos
1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )

F( Z ) 1

1
F(Z ) 0.98
50

F(Z)
0.97982

Z
1.75
Z (I)
1.76

0.98
0.98030

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) =2.05375

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

Y y
y

2.05375

LnX 3.0395
X 69.94583278
0.5883

Q=70 m3/s

Para T = 100 aos

1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )

F( Z ) 1

1
F(Z ) 0.99
100

F(Z)
0.98983
0.99
0.99010

Z
2.32
Z (I)
2.33

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 2.326296296

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

Y y
y

2.32629629 6

LnX 3.0395
X 82.11002457
0.5883

Q=82 m3/s

DISTRIBUCIN GUMBELL

f (X ) e

Donde:
Y

x
X Y

Se debe calcular:

P( x )

m
n 1

, para luego establecer:

max mx. F(X ) P( X ) con los datos o informacin que se dispone.

N: Total de Muestra

: Nivel de significancia = 0.05

Expresiones Usadas:

6
.S

x 0.45.s

(x i x )
i 1

(n 1)

xi
i 1

HOJA DE CLCULO N 03: "DISTRIBUCION GUMBELL"


Y=(Q)/

=Abs
[P(x)-G(y)]

Q=X

P(X)= m/
(n+1)

2.6

0.0130

-1.2085

3.35

0.03513

0.0221

2.9

0.0260

-1.1845

3.27

0.03805

0.0121

3.5

0.0390

-1.1363

3.12

0.04437

0.0054

3.6

0.0519

-1.1283

3.09

0.04549

0.0065

4.3

0.0649

-1.0721

2.92

0.05386

0.0111

4.6

0.0779

-1.0480

2.85

0.05774

0.0202

5.2

0.0909

-0.9998

2.72

0.06602

0.0249

5.7

0.1039

-0.9597

2.61

0.07347

0.0304

6.8

0.1169

-0.8714

2.39

0.09161

0.0253

10

6.8

0.1299

-0.8714

2.39

0.09161

0.0383

11

8.7

0.1429

-0.7188

2.05

0.12847

0.0144

12

8.9

0.1558

-0.7028

2.02

0.13274

0.0231

13

9.6

0.1688

-0.6466

1.91

0.14823

0.0206

14

10

0.1818

-0.6145

1.85

0.15744

0.0244

15

10.3

0.1948

-0.5904

1.80

0.16453

0.0303

16

10.5

0.2078

-0.5743

1.78

0.16932

0.0385

17

10.9

0.2208

-0.5422

1.72

0.17910

0.0417

18

11

0.2338

-0.5342

1.71

0.18158

0.0522

19

11.5

0.2468

-0.4941

1.64

0.19418

0.0526

20

11.9

0.2597

-0.4619

1.59

0.20451

0.0552

21

13.9

0.2727

-0.3014

1.35

0.25879

0.0139

22

14.6

0.2857

-0.2452

1.28

0.27863

0.0071

23

15.5

0.2987

-0.1729

1.19

0.30459

0.0059

24

15.8

0.3117

-0.1489

1.16

0.31333

0.0016

25

16.3

0.3247

-0.1087

1.11

0.32797

0.0033

26

16.5

0.3377

-0.0927

1.10

0.33384

0.0038

27

16.5

0.3506

-0.0927

1.10

0.33384

0.0168

28

17

0.3636

-0.0525

1.05

0.34857

0.0151

29

17.2

0.3766

-0.0365

1.04

0.35447

0.0222

30

17.5

0.3896

-0.0124

1.01

0.36333

0.0263

31

17.7

0.4026

0.0037

1.00

0.36923

0.0334

32

18.5

0.4156

0.0679

0.93

0.39284

0.0227

33

19.6

0.4286

0.1562

0.86

0.42512

0.0035

34

20

0.4416

0.1883

0.83

0.43677

0.0048

35

20.6

0.4545

0.2365

0.79

0.45412

0.0004

36

20.9

0.4675

0.2606

0.77

0.46273

0.0048

37

21.1

0.4805

0.2766

0.76

0.46845

0.0121

38

21.3

0.4935

0.2927

0.75

0.47414

0.0194

39

22.6

0.5065

0.3970

0.67

0.51053

0.0040

40

22.7

0.5195

0.4051

0.67

0.51328

0.0062

41

23

0.5325

0.4292

0.65

0.52149

0.0110

Yi

G (Y ) e e

Yi

42

24

0.5455

0.5094

0.60

0.54835

0.0029

43

25.3

0.5584

0.6138

0.54

0.58200

0.0236

44

25.3

0.5714

0.6138

0.54

0.58200

0.0106

45

25.9

0.5844

0.6620

0.52

0.59700

0.0126

46

26.2

0.5974

0.6861

0.50

0.60438

0.0070

47

27.2

0.6104

0.7663

0.46

0.62831

0.0179

48

27.3

0.6234

0.7744

0.46

0.63065

0.0073

49

27.5

0.6364

0.7904

0.45

0.63530

0.0011

50

28.5

0.6494

0.8707

0.42

0.65793

0.0086

51

28.8

0.6623

0.8948

0.41

0.66451

0.0022

52

29.9

0.6753

0.9831

0.37

0.68787

0.0125

53

30.7

0.6883

1.0473

0.35

0.70407

0.0158

54

30.9

0.7013

1.0634

0.35

0.70801

0.0067

55

31.7

0.7143

1.1276

0.32

0.72339

0.0091

56

32

0.7273

1.1517

0.32

0.72898

0.0017

57

32.3

0.7403

1.1758

0.31

0.73449

0.0058

58

34.5

0.7532

1.3524

0.26

0.77211

0.0189

59

34.6

0.7662

1.3604

0.26

0.77371

0.0075

60

35.8

0.7792

1.4567

0.23

0.79216

0.0129

61

36.1

0.7922

1.4808

0.23

0.79656

0.0044

62

36.3

0.8052

1.4969

0.22

0.79945

0.0057

63

38.4

0.8182

1.6655

0.19

0.82770

0.0095

64

38.8

0.8312

1.6976

0.18

0.83266

0.0015

65

42.5

0.8442

1.9946

0.14

0.87278

0.0286

66

45

0.8571

2.1953

0.11

0.89465

0.0375

67

46.3

0.8701

2.2997

0.10

0.90457

0.0344

68

49

0.8831

2.5164

0.08

0.92243

0.0393

69

49.5

0.8961

2.5566

0.08

0.92536

0.0293

70

49.7

0.9091

2.5726

0.08

0.92651

0.0174

71

52.4

0.9221

2.7894

0.06

0.94039

0.0183

72

52.5

0.9351

2.7974

0.06

0.94085

0.0058

73

56.6

0.9481

3.1265

0.04

0.95708

0.0090

74

64

0.9610

3.7206

0.02

0.97607

0.0150

75

64.5

0.9740

3.7608

0.02

0.97700

0.0030

76

70

0.9870

4.2023

0.01

0.98515

0.0019

1888

43.8632

max=

S= 15.97608

o=

x = 24.843
n=

0.0552
0.2 para = 0.05

76

= 12.457

Resultado del Anlisis:

= 17.654

La informacin es:

AJUSTE BUENO (max < o)


CONFIABLE

HALLAR EL CAUDAL Q PARA UN TIEMPO DE RETORNO T = 10, 20, 25, 50, 100

Para T = 10 aos
1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P(X Q) F(Q q ) F( Y )

F( Y ) 1

1
F( Y ) 0.9
10

Y Ln(Ln(0.9)) Y 2.250367327

Reemplazando el Y encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

2.250367327

X 17.654
X 45.68682579
12.457

Q=46 m3/s

Para T = 20 aos
1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P(X Q) F(Q q ) F( Y )

F( Y ) 1

1
F( Y ) 0.95
20

Y Ln(Ln(0.95 )) Y 2.970195249

Reemplazando el Y encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

2.970195249

X 17.654
X 54.65372222
12.457

Q=55 m3/s

Para T = 25 aos
1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P(X Q) F(Q q ) F( Y )

F( Y ) 1

1
F( Y ) 0.96
25

Y Ln(Ln(0.96)) Y 3.198534261

Reemplazando el Y encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

3.198534261

X 17.654
X 57.49814129
12.457

Q=57 m3/s

Para T = 50 aos
1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P(X Q) F(Q q ) F( Y )

F( Y ) 1

1
F( Y ) 0.98
50

Y Ln(Ln(0.98)) Y 3.901938658

Reemplazando el Y encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

3.901938658

X 17.654
X 66.26044986
12.457

Q=66 m3/s

Para T = 100 aos


1
1

()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )

De (): 1 P(X Q)

1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T

P(X Q) F(Q q ) F( Y )

F( Y ) 1

1
F( Y ) 0.99
100

Y Ln(Ln(0.99)) Y 4.600149227

Reemplazando el Y encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

4.600149227

X 17.654
X 74.95805892
12.457

Q=75 m3/s