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Immanuel Wallerstein
La ideologa neoliberal ha dominado el discurso mundial durante los
primeros 15 aos del siglo XXI. El mantra ha sido que la nica poltica
viable para gobiernos y movimientos sociales era otorgar prioridad a algo
conocido como mercado. La resistencia a esta creencia se volvi mnima,
en tanto partidos y movimientos que se dicen a s mismos de izquierda, o
por lo menos de centro-izquierda, abandonaron su tradicional nfasis en
medidas propias de un Estado de bienestar y aceptaron la validez de esta
posicin orientada al mercado. Arguyeron que por lo menos se podra
suavizar su impacto reteniendo alguna pequea parte de las histricas redes
de seguridad construidas por ms de 150 aos.
La poltica resultante fue una que radicalmente redujo el nivel de impuestos
para los sectores ms acaudalados de la poblacin, lo que por tanto
increment la brecha del ingreso entre este sector acaudalado y el resto de
la poblacin. Las firmas, en especial las grandes, pudieron incrementar sus
niveles de ganancia reduciendo o dislocando sus empleos.
La justificacin ofrecida por sus proponentes fue que, con el tiempo, esta
poltica volvera a crear los empleos que se haban perdido y que habra
algn efecto de derrama del valor incrementado que podra crearse si se
permita que el mercado prevaleciera. El llamado mercado nunca fue una
fuerza independiente de la poltica. Pero esta verdad elemental fue
diligentemente pasada por alto o, si alguna vez se le discuta, se le negaba
con ferocidad.
Termin aquel da? Hay lo que en un reciente artculo de Le Monde se le
llama un regreso tmido de las instituciones del establishment a una
preocupacin por sostener la demanda? Ocurrieron por lo menos dos signos
de esto, ambos de peso considerable. El Fondo Monetario Internacional
(FMI) ha sido por mucho tiempo el pilar ms fuerte de la ideologa
neoliberal, e impone sus requisitos a todos los gobiernos que le solicitan
prstamos. No obstante, en un memorndum emitido el 24 de febrero de
2016, el Fondo Monetario Internacional expres sus preocupaciones en
pblico en relacin con lo anmica que se ha tornado la demanda. Urgi a
que los ministros de Finanzas del G-20 se movieran ms all de las
polticas monetarias para dar aliento a las inversiones en vez de a los
Neoliberal ideology has dominated world discourse for the first fifteen
years of the twenty-first century. The mantra has been that the only viable
policy for governments and social movements was to give priority to
something called the market. Resistance to this belief became minimal, as
even parties and movements that called themselves left or at least left-ofcenter abandoned their traditional emphasis on welfare-state measures and
accepted the validity of this market-oriented position. They argued that at
most one could soften its impact by retaining some small part of the
historic safety nets that states had built over more than 150 years.
The resulting policy was one that reduced the level of taxation radically
on the wealthiest sectors of the population and thereby increased the
income gap between this wealthiest sector and the rest of the population.
Firms, especially large firms, were able to increase their profit levels by
reducing and/or outsourcing jobs.
The justification offered by its proponents was that this policy would in
time recreate the jobs that had been lost and that there would be some
trickle-down effect of the increased value that would be created by
allowing the "market" to prevail. Of course, allowing the market to prevail
in fact necessitated political action at the level of the states. The so-called
market was never a force independent of politics. But this elementary truth
was sedulously unnoticed or, if ever discussed, ferociously denied.
IMF worried openly about how anemic world demand had become. It urged
that finance ministers of the G-20 move beyond monetary policies to
encourage investments rather than savings in order to sustain demand by
creating jobs. This was quite a turn-around for the IMF.
So, my question, is reality creeping in? Well, yes, if only timidly. The
fact is that, worldwide, the promised "growth" in value-added production
has failed to occur. Of course, the decline is uneven. China is still
"growing," if at a much reduced pace, one that threatens to decline even
further. The United States still seems to be "growing," largely because the
dollar still seems the relatively safest place for governments and the
wealthy to park their money. But deflation seems to have become the
dominant reality of most of Europe and most of the so-called emerging
economies of the global South.
We are all now in a waiting game. Will the timid moves recommended
by the IMF and the OECD stanch the reality of declining world demand?
Will the dollar be able to resist a further loss of confidence in its ability to
be a stable repository of value? Or are we moving toward a further, much
more severe, wild swing in the so-called market, with all the political
consequences this will undoubtedly entail?
the "timid" attempts to deal with this new reality can in fact make a
difference. The structural crisis of our system is in full bloom. The big
question is not how to repair the system but with what to replace it.
by Immanuel Wallerstein