ao

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

Ao

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Ao
1991

1992

1993

I
16
15
17
17
18

II
21
20
24
25
26

Trimestre
I
II
III
IV

ventas
16
21
9
18

I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

15
20
10
18
17
24
13
22
17
25
11
21
18
26
14
25

Trimestre
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III

ventas
16
21
9
18
15
20
10
18
17
24
13

III
9
10
13
11
14

IV
18
18
22
21
25

Medias Movil
de 4
trimestres

Promedio
Movil de 4
trimestres

64
63

16
15.75

62
63
63
65
69
72
76
76
77
75
74
75
76
79
83
65
Desarrollo de
Indice
Estacional
0.951
1.299
0.612
1.139
0.951
1.299
0.612
1.139
0.951
1.299
0.612

15.5
15.75
15.75
16.25
17.25
18
19
19
19.25
18.75
18.5
18.75
19
19.75
20.75
la linea de Tendencia

Ventas
Desestacion
16.83
16.17
14.71
15.81
15.78
15.40
16.35
15.81
17.88
18.48
21.25

IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

1994

1995

X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

21
22
23
24

22
17
25
11
21
18
26
14
25
Sustituir en la Ecuancion
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X
Y= 14.4115 + 3.47*X

Ventas Pronosticada
21.70
20.63
22.05
28.64
22.39
13.70
22.74
27.33

1.139
0.951
1.299
0.612
1.139
0.951
1.299
0.612
1.139

19.32
17.88
19.25
17.98
18.44
18.94
20.02
22.89
21.95

Ventas Pronost. Desestacion

14.7585
15.1055
15.4525
15.7995
16.1465
16.4935
16.8405
17.1875
17.5345
17.8815
18.2285
18.5755
18.9225
19.2695
19.6165
19.9635
20.3105
20.6575
21.0045
21.3515

ao

I
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

Promedio
Movil
Centrado de
4 trimestres

Suma
Modificada

15.875
15.625

56.7
115.2

Media
Modificada

15.625
15.75
16
16.75
17.625
18.5
19
19.125
19
18.625
18.625
18.875
19.375
20.25

96.0
127.0
62.5
107.5
96.5
129.7
68.4
115.0
89.5
134.2
59.1
111.3
92.9
128.4

Indice
Estacional

96.0
96.5
89.5
92.9

127.0
129.7
134.2
128.4

94.45

129.06

I Trimestre
II Trimestre
95.06
129.89

0.951

1.2989

0.950600713

16.6

23.2

11.4

0.922222222 1.288888889 0.633333333

a linea de Tendencia
X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

II

Valor central
de X

Semipromedi
oY

5.5

16.32

12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

15.5

Ventas Pronost. Desestacion

14.7585
15.1055
15.4525
15.7995
16.1465
16.4935
16.8405
17.1875
17.5345
17.8815
18.2285
18.5755
18.9225
19.2695
19.6165
19.9635
20.3105
20.6575
21.0045
21.3515

19.79

III

IV
56.7
62.5
68.4
59.1

115.2
107.5
115.0
111.3

60.8

113.1

397.44
1.0064

III Trimestre IV Trimestre

61.17
113.87

0.6117

1.1387

1.298938172 0.611717481

1.1387436343

20.8
18
1.155555556