RETHINKING U.S.

GRAND STRATEGY:
THE CASE FOR OFFSHORE BALANCING

Stephen M. Walt
Harvard Kennedy School
August 2009

INTRODUCTION

REALISM: WHY STATES COMPETE FOR POWER

U.S. GRAND STRATEGY, 1775-2009

1775-1900: ESTABLISHING REGIONAL HEGEMONY

1900-1945: OFFSHORE BALANCING
1945-1991: CONTAINMENT (Onshore Balancing)
1991-2009: ENGAGEMENT, ENLARGEMENT & REGIONAL TRANSFORMATION

ROADMAP FOR REST OF TALK:

WHAT IS AMERICAN PRIMACY?

WHAT ARE U.S. INTERESTS?
WHAT IS AMERICAN POWER GOOD FOR?
WHY OFFSHORE BALANCING?
Case Study: : The Middle East, 1945-2009

AMERICAN PRIMACY

U.S. ECONOMY ~ 25% OF GROSS WORLD PRODUCT

U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY $$$ = REST OF WORLD COMBINED.

-Result: global power projection capabilities and command of the commons

U.S.ALSO CASTS LARGE CULTURAL SHADOW (Academia, Media, Leading

Role in Global Institutions, etc.).

U.S. GEOPOLITICAL POSITION IS VERY FAVORABLE.

KEY GOAL: PRESERVE THIS SITUATION AS LONG AS POSSIBLE

WARNING SIGNS:

Primacy makes other states uncomfortable, fearful, and resentful, so opposition increases.
U.S. and world economy facing major challenges after 2008 financial crisis.
Budget and trade deficits pose long-term problem.
Growing domestic demands (infrastructure, health care, etc.)

WHAT ARE U.S. INTERESTS?

PRESERVE U.S. PRIMACY FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE
MAINTAIN OPEN WORLD ECONOMY, INCLUDING ADEQUATE
ACCESS TO ENERGY SUPPLIES, IN ORDER TO MAXIMIZE
ECONOMIC GROWTH.
DETER/PREVENT DIRECT ATTACKS ON US HOMELAND,
ESPECIALLY WMD ATTACKS
WHERE FEASIBLE, ADVANCE U.S. VALUES OF DEMOCRACY,
HUMAN RIGHTS, ETC.

WHAT IS U.S. POWER GOOD FOR?

ECONOMIC POWER
Foundation of U.S. Influence (no military power w/o strong economy)
Diplomatic asset (other states want access to U.S. economy)

MILITARY POWER:
U.S. military very good at deterring large-scale conventional aggression, or
reversing it when it occurs.

Europe and Asia during Cold War

Desert Storm, 1991.

U.S. military is not good at governing other societies, especially when they are
deeply divided, culturally different, and hostile to foreign interference.

Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Latin America during 20th century, etc.

OTHER (NEGATIVE) CONSEQUENCES OF MISUSING U.S.

POWER

OFFSHORE BALANCING
ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Global Hegemony
Selective Engagement

CORE PRINCIPLES of OFFSHORE BALANCING

U.S. remains only great power in W. Hemisphere (regional hegemony)
U.S. helps maintain balance of power in Europe, Asia, and Persian Gulf.
U.S. relies as much as possible on regional allies, and passes the buck to them
whenever possible.
Key: U.S. deploys significant air/ground forces only when balance of power is in
jeopardy.
U.S. does not pursue regime change, nation-building, or other forms of social
engineering.
U.S. does not disengage: OB is neither isolationism nor a strategy for radical
disarmament.

OFFSHORE BALANCING: A CASE STUDY

The Middle East 1945-2009

1945-1990: U.S. acts as an offshore balancer in ME & P. Gulf

1993-2001: Dual Containment

No large-scale onshore military deployments

RDF is kept over the horizon
U.S. does not try to remake Middle East societies.
Prior to 1967, support for Israel but not a special relationship.

U.S. now containing both Iraq and Iran; maintains large-scale presence in Gulf.
U.S. now has special relationship with Israel; support is increasingly unconditional.
US also pursuing soft regime change in Iran and Iraq.
Result: rise of Al Qaeda, growing anti-Americanism in region.

2002-present: Regional Transformation

U.S. seeks to transform several Middle Eastern states into pro-American democracies.
Result: costly quagmire in Iraq, balance of power in Gulf endangered.
Main beneficiaries: Iran, China.

CONCLUDING REMARKS
OPTION 1: USE AMERICAN POWER TO INTEGRATE OTHER
COUNTRIES INTO U.S.-DESIGNED WORLD ORDER
PROBLEM: THIS IS EXPENSIVE AND PROBABLY UNNECESSARY

OPTION 2: OFFSHORE BALANCING (Less is More)

DO NOT DISENGAGE, BUT DRAW DOWN U.S. PRESENCE IN EUROPE AND
THE MIDDLE EAST.
PLAY HARD TO GET MORE OFTEN.
STOP TELLING OTHER STATES HOW TO RUN THEIR SOCIETIES
DONT ENGAGE IN AMBITIOUS SOCIAL ENGINEERING PROJECTS
OVERSEAS.