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BIOESTADSTICA
1er cuatrimestre 2016
CONTENIDOS
UNIDAD 3: Definicin de variable aleatoria. Caso continuos
y discreto. Funciones de cuanta y de densidad asociadas a
modelos discretos y continuos. Funcin de probabilidades
acumuladas. Parmetros caractersticos de un modelo de
probabilidad: esperanza y varianza de una variable
aleatoria. Propiedades. Modelos usuales de probabilidad:
Geomtrico, Binomial, Poisson, Uniforme, Exponencial,
Normal Estndar y Normal Generalizado. Otros modelos
tericos:
Chi-Cuadrado,
t-Student
y
F-Snedecor.
Aproximacin del modelo Binomial al modelo de Poisson y
al modelo Normal.
Variable aleatoria
Dado un espacio muestral : asociado a un experimento
aleatorio, se define como V.A. a toda funcin que aplica :
sobre los reales.
Es asociarle un nmero a cada resultado de un experimento
aleatorio.
Ejemplo 1
Ejemplo 2
Experimento
aleatorio
Espacio muestral
Variable aleatoria
Suma de puntos
Recorrido V.A.
{2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12}
{0,1,2,3,4}
X
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
4
3
2
1
0
0
P(X=x)
X
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craps
Distribucin de
probabilidad
Distribucin de
frecuencia
Representaciones
grficas
pi
19%
6/36
17%
5/36
Probabilidad
14%
3/36
2/36
6%
- Esperanza
- Variancia
4/36
3/36
8%
3%
5/36
4/36
11%
Parmetros
de la distribucin
Propiedades:
2/36
1) S[ x Rx
1/36
1/36
0%
2
10
11
12
xi
2)
DISTRIBUCIONES DE PROBABILIDAD
PARA VARIABLES DISCRETAS
Distribucin de probabilidad acumulada:
F( X )
P(x )
X
x
d
Propiedades:
lim F( X )
lim F( X )
X o f
X o f
Es no decreciente
P(x 1 < X x 2) = F(x 2) - F(x 1)
)[
PX
p (x )
Rx
Variancia:
V( X ) V X
>
E x P x
E[X 2 ] >E(X)@
x R x
p( x) P x
Propiedades:
E(a+b.X) = a + b.E(X)
V(a+b.X) = b2.V(X)
A1
0,37
0,63
0,63
0,63
A3
A3
0,63
A3
A2 A3
A2
0,63
0,37
A1
A1
0,63
0,37
0,37 A
2
A1 A2
0,63
A3
A3
{X = x}
P(X = x)
A1
1
A2
A3
A1 A2
A1
A3
A2 A3
A1 A2 A3
p(x)
0,25
0,44
0,26
0,05
(0,37)3 = 0,0506
p(x)
F(x)
x
p(x)
F(x)
0,25
0,25
0,44
0,69
0,26
0,95
0,05
En el ejemplo:
E(X) = 0 . 0,25 + 1 . 0,44 + 2 . 0,26 + 3 . 0,05 = 1,11
Se espera que, en promedio, una persona lleve vida
sedentaria.
E(X2) = 02 . 0,25 + 12 . 0,44 + 22 . 0,26 + 32 . 0,05 = 1,9314
V(X) = 1,9314 (1,11)2 = 0,6993
V (X) = 0,83624
fracaso 0
entonces
RX = {0, 1}
P(X
X a Ber(p )
x)
p x q 1 x
con E(X) = p
0,1
V(X) = p . (1-p )
RX = {0, 1, 2, 3, ... , n }
P( X
X a Bi(n ;p )
n
p x ( p )n x
x
x)
n
x
n!
(n x )! x !
Ej: en un monte frutal 20% de los rboles estn enfermos. Si vamos a elegir
una muestra de 5 rboles queremos estudiar como ser la V.A. nro. rboles
enfermos en la muestra
E(X) = n . p
V(X) = n . p . (1-p )
45%
35%
40,96%
31,25%
40%
35%
31,25%
30%
Bi(5;0.2)
32,77%
Bi(5;0.5)
25%
Probabilidad
Probabilidad
30%
25%
20,48%
20%
20%
15,62%
15,62%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5,12%
5%
5%
0,64%
0,03%
0%
0
3,13%
3,13%
0%
0
70%
60%
70%
59,06%
59,06%
60%
Bi(5;0.1)
50%
Bi(5;0.9)
50%
40%
Porcentaje
Probabilidad
3
X
32,80%
30%
20%
40%
32,80%
30%
20%
10%
7,29%
10%
0,81%
0,04%
0,00%
0%
0
2
X
0%
7,29%
0,00%
0,04%
0,81%
3
X
X a G(p )
RX = {1, 2, 3, ..... }
P( X
x)
( p ) x
E(X) = 1 / p
V(X) = (1-p ) / p 2
Ejemplo:
La probabilidad de que una muestra de aire contenga una
molcula rara es 0,01. Se supone que las muestras son
independientes respecto a la presencia de la molcula rara.
Sea X: nmero de muestras que se necesita inspeccionar hasta
encontrar una molcula rara
X G(p=0,01)
E(X)= 1/0,01=100
V(X)= (1-0,01)/0,012 =99
Cul es la probabilidad de tener que inspeccionar 80 muestras
hasta obtener una presencia de la molcula rara?
P(X=80)= (1-0,01)79 .0,01 =0,0045
e O .Ox
p ( x) x!
0
si
x 0 , 1 , ........f
otro x
Ejemplo:
El promedio anual de accidentes graves en boca de pozo de
una
empresa petrolera es de 3 accidentes por ao.
Sea X: nmero de accidentes por ao
X Po(=3)
E(X)= 3
V(X)= 3
Cul es la probabilidad de que en un ao ocurran dos accidentes
graves?
e 3 .32
P(X=2)= 2!
0,22
- f(x ) t 0 x Rx
-
f
f (x ) dx
f
x
x f (x ) dx
Esperanza:
f
E(X )
f (x ) dx
f
Variancia:
f
V (X )
f
f (x ) dx
>E( X )@
Distribucin acumulada F( x )
x
f (x ) dx
F(x )
f
1) Distribucin Uniforme:
X a U(a;b)
RX = [a;b]
f(x ) =
E(X )
f(x )
b a
si a < X < b
en otro caso
a b
2
V(X )
b - a
12
2) Distribucin Exponencial:
RX = [0;+f]
f(x ) = O . e-O.x
E(X) = 1 / O
X a Exp(O)
para x t 0
V(X) = 1 / O2
f(x )
O
3) Normal Stndar:
RZ = [-f ;+f]
Z a N(0,1)
f (z )
S
0,45
0,40
0,35
0,30
f(z)
0,25
0,20
0,15
0,10
0,05
0,00
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
Simetrica respecto a Y
Asinttica con eje X cuando x r f
Mximo en X=0
Caractersticas:
V(Z) = 1
0,45
0,40
0,35
0,30
f(z)
0,25
0,20
68%
95%
0,15
99,7%
0,10
0,05
0,00
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Z
I(z )
F(z )
f
S
z
dz
1,2
1,0
F(z)
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-5
-3
-4
-2
-1
P z 1 Z z 2
z
S
.04
dz
.06
.07
I(z ) I(z )
.00
.01
.02
.03
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5000
.5398
.5793
.6179
.6554
.5040
.5438
.5832
.6217
.6591
.5080
.5478
.5871
.6255
.6628
.5120
.5517
.5910
.6293
.6664
.5160
.5557
.5948
.6331
.6700
.5199
.5596
.5987
.6368
.6736
.5239
.5636
.6026
.6406
.6772
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
.6915
.7257
.7580
.7881
.8159
.6950
.7291
.7611
.7910
.8186
.6985
.7324
.7642
.7939
.8212
.7019
.7357
.7673
.7967
.8238
.7054
.7389
.7703
.7995
.8264
.7088
.7422
.7734
.8023
.8289
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
.8413
.8643
.8849
.90320
.91924
.8438
.8665
.8869
.90490
.92073
.8461
.8686
.8888
.90658
.92220
.8485
.8708
.8907
.90824
.92364
.8508
.8729
.8925
.90988
.92507
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
.93319
.94520
.95543
.96407
.97128
.93448
.94630
.95637
.96485
.97193
.93574
.94738
.95728
.96562
.97257
.93699
.94845
.95818
.96638
.97320
.93822
.94950
.95907
.96712
.97381
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
.97725
.98214
.98610
.98928
.921802
.97778
.98257
.98645
.98956
.922024
.97831
.98300
.98679
.98983
.922240
.98030 .98077
.98461 .98500
.98809 .98840
.920863 .921106
.923053 .923244
.98124 .98169
.98537 .98574
.98870 .98899
.921344 .921 576
.923431 .923613
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
.923790
.925339
.926533
.927445
.92 8134
.923963
.925473
.926636
.927523
.92 8193
.924132
.925604
.926736
.927599
.92 8250
.924297
.925731
.926833
.927673
.92 8305
.924766
.926093
.927110
.927882
.92 8462
.925060
.926319
.927282
.928012
.928559
.924457
.925855
.926928
.927744
.92 8359
.05
.08
.09
.5279
.5675
.6064
.6443
.6808
.5319
.5714
.6103
.6480
.6844
.5359
.5753
.6141
.6517
.6879
.7123
.7454
.7764
.8051
.8315
.7157
.7486
.7794
.8078
.8340
.7190
.7517
.7823
.8106
.8365
.7224
.7549
.7852
.8133
.8389
.8531
.8749
.8944
.91149
.92647
.8554
.8770
.8962
.91309
.92785
.8577
.8790
.8980
.91466
.92922
.8599
.8810
.8997
.91621
.93056
.8621
.8830
.90147
.91774
.93189
.93943
.95053
.95994
.96784
.97441
.94062
.95154
.96080
.96856
.97500
.94179
.95254
.96164
.96926
.97558
.94295
.95352
.96246
.96995
.97615
.94408
.95449
.96327
.97062
.97670
.924614
.925975
.927020
.927814
.92 8411
.924915
.926207
.927197
.927948
.928511
.925201
.926427
.927365
.928074
.928605
z0
P(Z<1)
.00
.01
.02
.03
.04
.05
.06
.07
.08
.09
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5000
.5398
.5793
.6179
.6554
.5040
.5438
.5832
.6217
.6591
.5080
.5478
.5871
.6255
.6628
.5120
.5517
.5910
.6293
.6664
.5160
.5557
.5948
.6331
.6700
.5199
.5596
.5987
.6368
.6736
.5239
.5636
.6026
.6406
.6772
.5279
.5675
.6064
.6443
.6808
.5319
.5714
.6103
.6480
.6844
.5359
.5753
.6141
.6517
.6879
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
.6915
.7257
.7580
.7881
.8159
.6950
.7291
.7611
.7910
.8186
.6985
.7324
.7642
.7939
.8212
.7019
.7357
.7673
.7967
.8238
.7054
.7389
.7703
.7995
.8264
.7088
.7422
.7734
.8023
.8289
.7123
.7454
.7764
.8051
.8315
.7157
.7486
.7794
.8078
.8340
.7190
.7517
.7823
.8106
.8365
.7224
.7549
.7852
.8133
.8389
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
.8413
.8643
.8849
.90320
.91924
.8438
.8665
.8869
.90490
.92073
.8461
.8686
.8888
.90658
.92220
.8485
.8708
.8907
.90824
.92364
.8508
.8729
.8925
.90988
.92507
.8531
.8749
.8944
.91149
.92647
.8554
.8770
.8962
.91309
.92785
.8577
.8790
.8980
.91466
.92922
.8599
.8810
.8997
.91621
.93056
.8621
.8830
.90147
.91774
.93189
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
.93319
.94520
.95543
.96407
.97128
.93448
.94630
.95637
.96485
.97193
.93574
.94738
.95728
.96562
.97257
.93699
.94845
.95818
.96638
.97320
.93822
.94950
.95907
.96712
.97381
.93943
.95053
.95994
.96784
.97441
.94062
.95154
.96080
.96856
.97500
.94179
.95254
.96164
.96926
.97558
.94295
.95352
.96246
.96995
.97615
.94408
.95449
.96327
.97062
.97670
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
.97725
.98214
.98610
.98928
.921802
.97778
.98257
.98645
.98956
.922024
.97831
.98300
.98679
.98983
.922240
.98030 .98077
.98461 .98500
.98809 .98840
.920863 .921106
.923053 .923244
.98124 .98169
.98537 .98574
.98870 .98899
.921344 .921 576
.923431 .923613
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
.923790
.925339
.926533
.927445
.92 8134
.923963
.925473
.926636
.927523
.92 8193
.924132
.925604
.926736
.927599
.92 8250
.924297
.925731
.926833
.927673
.92 8305
.924457
.925855
.926928
.927744
.92 8359
.924614
.925975
.927020
.927814
.92 8411
.924766
.926093
.927110
.927882
.92 8462
.924915
.926207
.927197
.927948
.928511
.925060
.926319
.927282
.928012
.928559
.925201
.926427
.927365
.928074
.928605
.04
.05
.06
.07
.08
.09
.00
.01
.02
.03
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5000
.5398
.5793
.6179
.6554
.5040
.5438
.5832
.6217
.6591
.5080
.5478
.5871
.6255
.6628
.5120
.5517
.5910
.6293
.6664
.5160
.5557
.5948
.6331
.6700
.5199
.5596
.5987
.6368
.6736
.5239
.5636
.6026
.6406
.6772
.5279
.5675
.6064
.6443
.6808
.5319
.5714
.6103
.6480
.6844
.5359
.5753
.6141
.6517
.6879
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
.6915
.7257
.7580
.7881
.8159
.6950
.7291
.7611
.7910
.8186
.6985
.7324
.7642
.7939
.8212
.7019
.7357
.7673
.7967
.8238
.7054
.7389
.7703
.7995
.8264
.7088
.7422
.7734
.8023
.8289
.7123
.7454
.7764
.8051
.8315
.7157
.7486
.7794
.8078
.8340
.7190
.7517
.7823
.8106
.8365
.7224
.7549
.7852
.8133
.8389
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
.8413
.8643
.8849
.90320
.91924
.8438
.8665
.8869
.90490
.92073
.8461
.8686
.8888
.90658
.92220
.8485
.8708
.8907
.90824
.92364
.8508
.8729
.8925
.90988
.92507
.8531
.8749
.8944
.91149
.92647
.8554
.8770
.8962
.91309
.92785
.8577
.8790
.8980
.91466
.92922
.8599
.8810
.8997
.91621
.93056
.8621
.8830
.90147
.91774
.93189
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
.93319
.94520
.95543
.96407
.97128
.93448
.94630
.95637
.96485
.97193
.93574
.94738
.95728
.96562
.97257
.93699
.94845
.95818
.96638
.97320
.93822
.94950
.95907
.96712
.97381
.93943
.95053
.95994
.96784
.97441
.94062
.95154
.96080
.96856
.97500
.94179
.95254
.96164
.96926
.97558
.94295
.95352
.96246
.96995
.97615
.94408
.95449
.96327
.97062
.97670
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
.97725
.98214
.98610
.98928
.921802
.97778
.98257
.98645
.98956
.922024
.97831
.98300
.98679
.98983
.922240
.98030 .98077
.98461 .98500
.98809 .98840
.920863 .921106
.923053 .923244
.98124 .98169
.98537 .98574
.98870 .98899
.921344 .921 576
.923431 .923613
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
.923790
.925339
.926533
.927445
.92 8134
.923963
.925473
.926636
.927523
.92 8193
.924132
.925604
.926736
.927599
.92 8250
.924297
.925731
.926833
.927673
.92 8305
.924766
.926093
.927110
.927882
.92 8462
.925060
.926319
.927282
.928012
.928559
.924457
.925855
.926928
.927744
.92 8359
.924614
.925975
.927020
.927814
.92 8411
.924915
.926207
.927197
.927948
.928511
.925201
.926427
.927365
.928074
.928605
z0
P(Z<1)
P(Z<1,06)
P(Z<1,23)
z0
P(Z<1)
P(Z<1,06)
P(Z<1,23)
P(Z<-1) ???
1-P(Z<1)
.00
.01
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5000
.4602
.4207
.3821
.3446
.4960
.4562
.4168
.3783
.3409
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
.3085
.2743
.2420
.2119
.1841
- 1.0
- 1.1
- 1.2
- 1.3
- 1.4
.02
.03
.04
.05
.06
.07
.08
.09
.4920
.4522
.4129
.3745
.3372
.4880
.4483
.4090
.3707
.3336
.4840
.4443
.4052
.3669
.3300
.4801
.4404
.4013
.3632
.3264
.4761
.4364
.3974
.3594
.3228
.4721
.4325
.3936
.3557
.3192
.4681
.4286
.3897
.3520
.3156
.4641
.4247
.3859
.3483
.3121
.3050
.2709
.2389
.2090
.1814
.3015
.2676
.2358
.2061
.1788
.2981
.2643
.2327
.2033
.1762
.2946
.2611
.2297
.2005
.1736
.2912
.2578
.2266
.1977
.1711
.2877
.2546
.2236
.1949
.1685
.2843
.2514
.2206
.1922
.1660
.2810
.2483
.2177
.1894
.1635
.2776
.2451
.2148
.1867
.1611
.1587
.1357
.1151
.09680
.08076
.1562
.1335
.1131
.09510
.07927
.1539
.1314
.1112
.09342
.07780
.1515
.1292
.1093
.09176
.07636
.1492
.1271
.1075
.09012
.07493
.1469
.1251
.1056
.08851
.07353
.1446
.1230
.1038
.08691
.07215
.1423
.1210
.1020
.08534
.07078
.1401
.1190
.1003
.08379
.06944
.1379
.1170
.09853
.08226
.06811
- 1.5
- 1.6
- 1.7
- 1.8
- 1.9
.06681
.05480
.04457
.03593
.02872
.06552
.05370
.04363
.03515
.02807
.06426
.05262
.04272
.03438
.02743
.06301
.05 155
.04182
.03362
.02680
.06178
.05050
.04093
.03288
.02619
.06057
.04947
.04006
.03216
.02559
.05938
.04846
.03920
.03144
.02500
.05821
.04746
.03836
.03074
.02442
.05705
.04648
.03754
.03005
.02385
.05592
.04551
.03673
.02938
.02330
- 2.0
- 2.1
- 2.2
- 2.3
- 2.4
.02275
.01786
.01390
.01072
.028198
.02222
.01743
.01355
.01044
.027976
.02169
.01700
.01321
.01017
.027760
.02118 .02068
.01659 .01618
.01287 .01255
.029903 .029642
.027549 .027344
.02018
.01578
.01222
.029387
.027143
- 2.5
- 2.6
- 2.7
- 2.8
- 2.9
.026210
.024661
.023467
.022555
.021866
.026037
.024527
.023364
.022477
.021807
.025868
.024396
.023264
.022401
.021750
.025703
.024269
.023167
.022327
.021695
.025543
.024145
.023072
.022256
.021641
.025386
.024025
.022980
.022186
.021589
.025234
.023907
.022890
.022118
.021538
.025085
.023793
.022803
.022052
.021489
.02
.03
.04
.05
.06
.07
.08
.09
.024940
.023681
.022718
.021988
.021441
.024799
.023573
.022035
.021926
.021395
.00
.01
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5000
.4602
.4207
.3821
.3446
.4960
.4562
.4168
.3783
.3409
.4920
.4522
.4129
.3745
.3372
.4880
.4483
.4090
.3707
.3336
.4840
.4443
.4052
.3669
.3300
.4801
.4404
.4013
.3632
.3264
.4761
.4364
.3974
.3594
.3228
.4721
.4325
.3936
.3557
.3192
.4681
.4286
.3897
.3520
.3156
.4641
.4247
.3859
.3483
.3121
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
.3085
.2743
.2420
.2119
.1841
.3050
.2709
.2389
.2090
.1814
.3015
.2676
.2358
.2061
.1788
.2981
.2643
.2327
.2033
.1762
.2946
.2611
.2297
.2005
.1736
.2912
.2578
.2266
.1977
.1711
.2877
.2546
.2236
.1949
.1685
.2843
.2514
.2206
.1922
.1660
.2810
.2483
.2177
.1894
.1635
.2776
.2451
.2148
.1867
.1611
- 1.0
- 1.1
- 1.2
- 1.3
- 1.4
.1587
.1357
.1151
.09680
.08076
.1562
.1335
.1131
.09510
.07927
.1539
.1314
.1112
.09342
.07780
.1515
.1292
.1093
.09176
.07636
.1492
.1271
.1075
.09012
.07493
.1469
.1251
.1056
.08851
.07353
.1446
.1230
.1038
.08691
.07215
.1423
.1210
.1020
.08534
.07078
.1401
.1190
.1003
.08379
.06944
.1379
.1170
.09853
.08226
.06811
- 1.5
- 1.6
- 1.7
- 1.8
- 1.9
.06681
.05480
.04457
.03593
.02872
.06552
.05370
.04363
.03515
.02807
.06426
.05262
.04272
.03438
.02743
.06301
.05 155
.04182
.03362
.02680
.06178
.05050
.04093
.03288
.02619
.06057
.04947
.04006
.03216
.02559
.05938
.04846
.03920
.03144
.02500
.05821
.04746
.03836
.03074
.02442
.05705
.04648
.03754
.03005
.02385
.05592
.04551
.03673
.02938
.02330
- 2.0
- 2.1
- 2.2
- 2.3
- 2.4
.02275
.01786
.01390
.01072
.028198
.02222
.01743
.01355
.01044
.027976
.02169
.01700
.01321
.01017
.027760
.02118 .02068
.01659 .01618
.01287 .01255
.029903 .029642
.027549 .027344
.02018
.01578
.01222
.029387
.027143
- 2.5
- 2.6
- 2.7
- 2.8
- 2.9
.026210
.024661
.023467
.022555
.021866
.026037
.024527
.023364
.022477
.021807
.025868
.024396
.023264
.022401
.021750
.025703
.024269
.023167
.022327
.021695
.025386
.024025
.022980
.022186
.021589
.025234
.023907
.022890
.022118
.021538
.025543
.024145
.023072
.022256
.021641
.025085
.023793
.022803
.022052
.021489
.024940
.023681
.022718
.021988
.021441
.024799
.023573
.022035
.021926
.021395
P(-1,5<Z<0,8)
X a N(P , V2)
0,22
0,20
0,18
0,16
0,14
F (x )
f(x)
0,12
0,10
S V
x P
V
0,08
0,06
0,04
0,02
0,00
2
10
12
14
16
18
x Px
P Z
Vx
P( X x )
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
-4
-2
10
12
14
16
a N(0,1) y V a
independientes entonces:
Z
V
n
a t(n )
a F(n 1;n 2)