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Mdulo 5

6: Definicin y caractersticas de
eventos extremos

Definiciones de eventos extremos

Reduccin de riesgo de desastres

Birkmann et al., 2009

Adaptacin al cambio climtico

Definiciones de eventos extremos


Similitudes/diferencias

Birkmann et al., 2009

Recomendaciones para el
uso de la terminologa

Perspectiva fsica

Caractersticas de EE:
(A) definicin por parmetros climatolgicos
(temperatura, precipitacin => sequa, helada)
(B) definicin por procesos indirectamente relacionados
con parmetros climatolgicos (=> deslizamientos,
huaycos, inundaciones)

Perspectiva fsica
Causas de cambios en EE:
(1) Cambio de variabilidad
(2) Cambio de condiciones en promedio (cambio climtico)
(3) Combinacin de (1) y (2)

IPCC AR4, 2007

Perspectiva fsica

Cambios proyectados
en eventos extremos

Schr et al., 2004 / IPCC

Perspectiva fsica

Cambios proyectados
en eventos extremos

Easterling et al., 2000

Perspectiva fsica

Cambios proyectados
en eventos extremos

IPCC, US-GCRP

Perspectiva fsica

Cambios proyectados
en eventos extremos

US-GCRP, 2009

Perspectiva fsica

Consideraciones de probabilidad/frecuencia de EE
Referencia: Mediciones climatolgicas, monitoreo ambiental
Tiempo de medicin generalmente < 150 aos
=> en regiones con periodos cortos de monitoreo anlisis de EE es un reto!

Perspectiva humana
Caractersticas de EE:
Grado de impacto por condiciones de
vulnerabilidad
Interaccin de cierto nivel de
vulnerabilidad con eventos
climatolgicos, hdro-meteorolgicos

=> Falta de acuerdo sobre definicin de EE,


inclusive dentro de la perspectiva fsica
PREDES

Aproximacin a EE: varios niveles de EE

Clima
Parmetros/ndices
por medir

Impacto
Dao/ndices, por ej.:
- agricultura
- salud
- seguridad

Clima
Datos climatolgicos

Impacto
Reportes, inventarios,
memoria de la gente

Falta estudiar la relacin:


Los ndices climatolgicos
corresponden a los impactos?

Helada: definicin
SENAMHI Per:
a) Helada meteorolgica: Ocurrencia de una
temperatura mnima diaria que non supere los
0 C en abrigo meteorolgico (medido a 1.5 m
del suelo)
b) Helada agronmica: En forma mas general se
define la helada agronmica come el descenso
de la temperatura del aire a niveles crticos para
los cultivos sin llegar necesariamente a 0 C

Helada: impactos en la sierra del Per


populacin: casos mas frecuentes de neumona
y asma: afectados sobre todo nios y nias
cultivos: reduccin o destruccin de la cosecha
ganado: muerte de camlidos, vacas y ovejas

Helada: monitoreo

Mapa de la Anomala de la temperatura media del aire (NOAA-NCEP-CPC-CAMS) en


Julio 2006 del Portal del Nacional Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI,
portal.iri.columbia.edu) y Diagrama del Promedio mensual de la temperatura mnima
de cuatro estaciones de la zona fronteriza entre Cuzco y el Puno situadas entre 4000 y
4300 msnm como se puede calcular en el Portal de datos del proyecto PACC.

Sequa: definicin
Diferentes definiciones de sequa: meteorolgica (dficit
precipitacin), hidrolgica (dficit de descarga) o agrcola (con
referencia a los cultivos, dficit de humedad del suelo).
Tambin distintas definiciones en lo que concierne los aspectos
especficos: intensidad y duracin (sequas multi-anuales,
estacionales, a corto plazo, ), frecuencia de reaparicin,
temporada y estacin de aparicin
Por lo tanto, existen diferentes indicadores de sequa

Sequa: definicin
The United Nations Convention to combat desertification (UNCCD):
Drought means the naturally-occurring phenomenon that exists when precipitation
has been significantly below normal recorded levels, causing serious hydrological
imbalances that adversely affect land resource production systems.

Quantitative definitions:
Meteorological drought is usually an expression of precipitations departure from
normal over some period of time. These definitions are usually region-specific, and
presumably based on a thorough understanding of regional climatology.
Operational definitions help people identify the beginning, end, and degree of
severity of a drought. To determine the beginning of drought, operational definitions
specify the degree of departure from the average of precipitation or some other
climatic variable over some time period. This is usually done by comparing the
current situation to the historical average, often based on a 30-year period of record.
The threshold identified as the beginning of a drought (e.g., 75% of average
precipitation over a specified time period) is usually established somewhat
arbitrarily, rather than on the basis of its precise relationship to specific impacts.

Sequa: definicin
The United Nations Convention to combat desertification (UNCCD):
Drought means the naturally-occurring phenomenon that exists when precipitation has been
significantly below normal recorded levels, causing serious hydrological imbalances that
adversely affect land resource production systems.

Impact oriented definitions:


Agricultural drought occurs when there isnt enough soil moisture to meet the needs of a
particular crop at a particular time. Agricultural drought happens after meteorological drought
but before hydrological drought. Agriculture is usually the first economic sector to be affected
by drought.
Hydrological drought refers to deficiencies in surface and subsurface water supplies. It is
measured as streamflow and as lake, reservoir, and groundwater levels. There is a time lag
between lack of rain and less water in streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs, so hydrological
measurements are not the earliest indicators of drought. When precipitation is reduced or
deficient over an extended period of time, this shortage will be reflected in declining surface
and subsurface water levels.
Socioeconomic drought occurs when physical water shortage starts to affect people,
individually and collectively. Or, in more abstract terms, most socioeconomic definitions of
drought associate it with the supply and demand of an economic good.

Sequa: definicin
The United Nations Convention to combat desertification (UNCCD):
Drought means the naturally-occurring phenomenon that exists when
precipitation has been significantly below normal recorded levels, causing
serious hydrological imbalances that adversely affect land resource
production systems.

Recomended literature
Dracup, J.A.; K.S. Lee; and E.G. Paulson, Jr. 1980. On the Definition of
Droughts. Water Resources Research 16(2):297-302.
Wilhite, D.A.; and M.H. Glantz. 1985. Understanding the drought
phenomenon: The role of definitions. Water International 10:111120.
See also
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/documents/Wilhite_WMO_Drou
ght_PWS.pdf

Sequa: definicin
Sequa (drought): ausencia prolongada o dficit apreciable de precipitaciones que puede
contribuir a la desertificacin.
INEI 2009: Anuario de Estadsticas Ambientales 2009.
Sequa (met): Ausencia de precipitaciones pluviales que afecta principalmente a la
agricultura. Los criterios de cantidad de precipitacin y das sin precipitacin, varan al
definir una sequa. Se considera una sequa absoluta, para un lugar o una regin, cuando
en un perodo de 15 das, en ninguno se ha registrado una precipitacin mayor a 1 mm.
Una sequa parcial se define cuando en un perodo de 29 das consecutivos la
precipitacin media diaria no excede 0.5 mm. Se precisa un poco ms cuando se
relaciona la insuficiente cantidad de precipitacin con la
actividad agrcola.
INDECI 2009: Terminologa de Defensa Civil
Sequa
Temporada seca, sin lluvias, o con dficit de lluvias. En general se trata de perodos
prolongados (meses, aos, incluso decenios), que pueden ocurrir en reas continentales
restringidas o a escalas regionales. Excluye Ola de calor aunque una Ola de calor puede
ocurrir durante un periodo de Sequa.
DesInventar 2009: Gua Metodolgica

Sequa: impactos
Agricultural drought:
Soil water deficits
Yield loss
Insect infestation
Plant diseases
Hydrological drought:
Soil water deficits
Reduced groundwater or reservoir levels
Persistently low discharge and/or volume of water in streams and reservoirs lasting
months or years
Land and landscape degradation, desertification, wind erosion, wildfires
Loss of biodiversity
Permanent loss of biological productivity
Loss of wildlife habitat
The Ojos Negros Research Group 2010
(http://threeissues.sdsu.edu/three_issues_droughtfacts0.html )

Sequa: impactos
Socioeconomic drought:
Social conflicts (the demand for water for economic activities far exceeds the supply)
Household water shortage (public safety, health, quality of life, inequities in
distribution)
Agricultural yield loss
Low hydroelectric power production
Income loss
Rising price levels (food, energy)
Population migration

The Ojos Negros Research Group 2010


(http://threeissues.sdsu.edu/three_issues_droughtfacts0.html )