y=

a
"+" b
x
6266.667 3766.6666666667
192.307692
6458.974
6651.282
6843.59
7035.897
7228.205
7420.513
7612.821
7805.128
7997.436
8189.744
8382.051

Error Estandar
Sxy
269.8527613728
Coeficiente de Correlacin
r=
0.94

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

n=

12

Promedio Y=

X^2

y^2

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

4200
4300
4000
4400
5000
4700
5300
4900
5400
5700
6300
6000

1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144

17640000.0
18490000.0
16000000.0
19360000.0
25000000.0
22090000.0
28090000.0
24010000.0
29160000.0
32490000.0
39690000.0
36000000.0

78

60200
5016.66666667

650

308020000.0

Grafica
Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Ventas
4200
4300
4000
4400
5000
4700
5300
4900
5400
5700
6300
6000
6266.7
6459.0
6651.3
6843.6
7035.9
7228.2
7420.5
7612.8
7805.1

Ventas

22
23
24

7997.4
8189.7
8382.1

x*y
4200.0
8600.0
12000.0
17600.0
25000.0
28200.0
37100.0
39200.0
48600.0
57000.0
69300.0
72000.0

418800.0

Ventas

Pronostico Final
y=
4.9
5.9
4.1
2.7
4.3
8.7

a
6.77
6.80
6.83
6.08
6.11
6.15

"+"
5.56

Error Estandar
Sxy
0.2833495353
Coeficiente de Correlacin
r=
0.78
Limitesup

Limiteinf

x
0.033

37 enero
38 febrero
39 marzo
16 abril
17 mayo
18 junio
julio
agosto
septiembre
octubre
noviembre
diciembre
enero
febrero
marzo
abril
mayo
junio
julio
agosto
septiembre
octubre
noviembre
diciembre
enero
febrero
marzo
abril
mayo
junio
julio
agosto
septiembre
octubre
noviembre
diciembre
n=

Ao 3

Ao 2

Ao 1

1
4.1
2
5.1
3
3.5
4
2.4
5
4.2
6
8.3
7
9.6
8
10.1
9
8
10
5.4
11
3.2
12
4.2
13
4.6
14
5.4
15
3.6
16
3.1
17
4.3
18
8.8
19
10.5
20
12.2
21
8.5
22
5.6
23
3.8
24
3.9
25
4.7
26
5.6
27
4.1
28
2.8
29
4.6
30
9.1
31
11.9
32
13.1
33
9
34
6.1
35
4.1
36
4.4
36
666
221.9
Promedio Y= 6.1638888889

X^2

y^2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
169
196
225
256
289
324
361
400
441
484
529
576
625
676
729
784
841
900
961
1024
1089
1156
1225
1296
16206

32.0
34.3
33.4
28.6
35.1
34.3
30.8
27.8
33.7
34.1
28.4
38.6
40.3
38.5
35.3
47.7
36.8
38.6
36.8
40.6
38.0
36.7
40.1
33.3
42.1
41.4
45.8
38.9
42.2
41.3
47.3
46.8
42.6
43.5
46.7
42.4
1374.7

x*y

Promedio de tres meses

Factor Estacionario
Y desestacio
5.66
4.467
0.725
5.658
11.72
5.367
0.871
5.858
17.34
3.733
0.606
5.779
21.39
2.767
0.449
5.347
29.64
4.367
0.708
5.929
35.15
8.733
1.417
5.858
38.83
10.667
1.731
5.548
42.21
11.800
1.914
5.276
52.21
8.500
1.379
5.801
58.39
5.700
0.925
5.839
58.64
3.700
0.600
5.331
74.56
4.167
0.676
6.213
82.52
4.467
0.725
6.348
86.83
5.367
0.871
6.202
89.16
3.733
0.606
5.944
110.50
2.767
0.449
6.907
103.19
4.367
0.708
6.070
111.80
8.733
1.417
6.211
115.28
10.667
1.731
6.068
127.46
11.800
1.914
6.373
129.44
8.500
1.379
6.164
133.23
5.700
0.925
6.056
145.60
3.700
0.600
6.330
138.47
4.167
0.676
5.769
162.15
4.467
0.725
6.486
167.23
5.367
0.871
6.432
182.77
3.733
0.606
6.769
174.67
2.767
0.449
6.238
188.30
4.367
0.708
6.493
192.68
8.733
1.417
6.423
213.17
10.667
1.731
6.877
218.97
11.800
1.914
6.843
215.37
8.500
1.379
6.526
224.28
5.700
0.925
6.596
239.06
3.700
0.600
6.830
234.33
4.167
0.676
6.509
4232.2
221.9

Meses

Grafica
Ventas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39

4.1
5.1
3.5
2.4
4.2
8.3
9.6
10.1
8
5.4
3.2
4.2
4.6
5.4
3.6
3.1
4.3
8.8
10.5
12.2
8.5
5.6
3.8
3.9
4.7
5.6
4.1
2.8
4.6
9.1
11.9
13.1
9
6.1
4.1
4.4
4.9
5.9
4.1

Ventas / Meses

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de0.09002925
Coeficiente d 0.00810527
R^2 ajustad -0.01944737
Error tpico
2.9087049
Observacione
38
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
1 2.4888773 2.4888773 0.29417392 0.59090012
Residuos
36 304.58031 8.46056417
Total
37 307.069187
Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%
Intercepcin 5.64699484 1.00037578 5.64487358 2.0735E-006 3.61813871
1 0.0233382 0.0430294 0.54237802 0.59090012 -0.06392947

Anlisis de los residuales

ObservacinPronstico 4,1 Residuos
Residuos estndares
1 5.69367124 -0.59367124 -0.2069169
2 5.71700944 -2.21700944 -0.77271171
3 5.74034765 -3.34034765 -1.16423759
4 5.76368585 -1.56368585 -0.54500371
5 5.78702405 2.51297595 0.87586724
6 5.81036225 3.78963775 1.3208322
7 5.83370046 4.26629954 1.48696688
8 5.85703866 2.14296134 0.74690314
9 5.88037686 -0.48037686 -0.16742952
10 5.90371506 -2.70371506 -0.94234704
11 5.92705327 -1.72705327 -0.60194343
12 5.95039147 -1.35039147 -0.47066254
13 5.97372967 -0.57372967 -0.19996651
14 5.99706787 -2.39706787 -0.83546889
15 6.02040608 -2.92040608 -1.01787206
16 6.04374428 -1.74374428 -0.60776088
17 6.06708248 2.73291752 0.9525252
18 6.09042068 4.40957932 1.5369053
19 6.11375889 6.08624111 2.1212854
20 6.13709709 2.36290291 0.8235611
21 6.16043529 -0.56043529 -0.19533291

Resultados de datos de
Percentil
1.31578947
3.94736842
6.57894737
9.21052632
11.8421053
14.4736842
17.1052632
19.7368421
22.3684211
25
27.6315789
30.2631579
32.8947368
35.5263158
38.1578947
40.7894737
43.4210526
46.0526316
48.6842105
51.3157895
53.9473684

22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

6.18377349
6.20711169
6.2304499
6.2537881
6.2771263
6.3004645
6.32380271
6.34714091
6.37047911
6.39381731
6.41715552
6.44049372
6.46383192
6.48717012
6.51050833
6.53384653
6.55718473

-2.38377349
-2.30711169
-1.5304499
-0.6537881
-2.1771263
-3.5004645
-1.72380271
2.75285909
5.52952089
6.70618269
2.58284448
-0.34049372
-2.36383192
-2.08717012
-1.60545635
-0.61199202
-2.41782773

-0.83083529
-0.80411575
-0.53341972
-0.2278699
-0.75881092
-1.22004438
-0.60081049
0.95947559
1.92724733
2.33735851
0.90021907
-0.11867495
-0.8238849
-0.72745779
-0.55956231
-0.21330238
-0.84270448

56.5789474
59.2105263
61.8421053
64.4736842
67.1052632
69.7368421
72.3684211
75
77.6315789
80.2631579
82.8947368
85.5263158
88.1578947
90.7894737
93.4210526
96.0526316
98.6842105

1 Grfico de lo

crtico de F

1 Curva de reg

Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
7.67585096 3.61813871 7.67585096
0.11060588 -0.06392947 0.11060588
Column T

ltados de datos de probabilidad

4.1
2.4
2.8
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.139357
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.90505197
5.1
5.4

Grfico de prob

5.4
5.6
5.6
5.92185451
6.1
8
8.3
8.5
8.8
9
9.1
9.6
10.1
10.5
11.9
12.2
13.1

1 Grfico de los residuales

1 Curva de regresin ajustada

Column T

Pronstico 4,1

Grfico de probabilidad normal