8/5/2016

Study Asserts That Earth is Not The First Intelligent Civilization In The Universe

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Study Asserts That Earth is Not The First Intelligent

Civilization In The Universe
Cumberg

IN BR IEF

Two scientists from the University of Rochester and the University of Washington have developed an archaeological form to the
famous Drake equation, which will allow us to determine how many technological civilizations have formed in the history of the
universe. And it seems there may be a number of them.

THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE

Are we alone? It is, perhaps, one of the most significant questions human beings have ever askedright up there with Why are we here?
and How did it all begin?
Indeed, as soon as we understood that the universe was not circumscribed by the Earths horizons, but extended outward for
unfathomable distances and contained within its compass innumerable worlds like our own, we began to wonder whether we are unique
and alone, or if there might not be others out therelike us, and yet very unlike us.
The famous Drake equation (http://futurism.com/alone-calculating-number-alien-civilizations/), formulated by astronomer Frank
Drake (http://futurism.com/know-your-scientist-frank-drake/) in 1961, sought to establish a mathematical, probabilistic framework to
understand the question of whether or not humanity ia really alone in the cosmos; it used a number of ingenious terms to estimate the
number of technological civilizations in our galaxy.
The problem with Drakes formulation was that three of those terms, in particular, were just too uncertain to permit a reliable estimate.
According to Adam Frank (http://www.rochester.edu/news/are-we-alone-in-the-universe/), astronomy and physics professor at the
University of Rochester, and a coauthor of the paper (appearing in the journal
(http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/ast.2015.1418)Astrobiology
(http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/ast.2015.1418)): Weve known for a long time approximately how many stars exist. We
didnt know how many of those stars had planets that could potentially harbor life, how often life might evolve and lead to intelligent
beings, and how long any civilizations might last before becoming extinct.

Infographic of the Drake equation and its new Archaeological form addendum. Credit: University of Rochester

SETTING SOME LIMITS

Recent exoplanet research, particularly with the Kepler Space Telescope, has constrained the first of these terms, determining that about
one-fifth of stars possess planets within their habitable zones.
That leaves the second and third termsthe probability for advanced life to evolve, and the longevity of technological civilizationsbut

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8/5/2016

Study Asserts That Earth is Not The First Intelligent Civilization In The Universe

That leaves the second and third termsthe probability for advanced life to evolve, and the longevity of technological civilizationsbut

Frank and his colleague, Woodruff Sullivan of the University of Washington, simply altered the math a little. They eliminated the second
term by calculating the odds against humankind being the only advanced civilization in the universe; and they dismissed the third by
formulating a cosmic archaeological questionhow often does intelligent life evolve throughout cosmic history?
Their new equation, which they call the Archaeological form of the Drake equation, looks like thisN ast x fbt.
Nast, the number of habitable planets, is defined asN ast = N* x fp x n p, where N* is the total number of stars, fpis the fraction that form
planets, and n pis the average of those planets circling in the habitable zones of their parent stars (http://futurism.com/solar-systemthree-earths-astronomers-find-trio-potentially-habitable-worlds/). The second term of the Archaeological form equation, fbt, is defined as
the likelihood of an advanced technological civilization arising on one of these habitable planets.
The results suggest that humankind is only likely to be unique if the odds of another civilization developing on a habitable world are less
than one in 1022.
Thats a verysome might say improbablysmall number.
To me, this implies that other intelligent, technology producing species very likely have evolved before us, says Frank.Think of it this
way: before our result youd be considered a pessimist if you imagined the probability of evolving a civilization on a habitable planet were,
say, one in a trillion. But even that guess, one chance in a trillion, implies that what has happened here on Earth with humanity has in fact
happened about 10 billion other times over cosmic history!

Source: Rochester (http://www.rochester.edu/news/are-we-alone-in-the-universe/)

(http://futurism.com/pluto-serves-another-surprise-enormous-earth-like-tail/)

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