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Formally define sensible event notation, and summarise the event and probability information
in the question.
(b)
(c)
What is the probability that a canary has both a black band and toes of equal length?
(d)
Are the two events of a canary having a black band above its eyes and having toes of equal
length statistically independent? Briefly explain why or why not.
Check answers:
(a) Let B = {canary has a black band} , L={canary has toes of equal length} , P(B)=0.16 , P(L)=0.23
, P(B L) = 0.65
(b) S = B L, B L , B L, B L
1
0.05
2
0.32
3
0.16
4
0.47
(a)
What is the expected number of canaries per cage arriving at the show?
(b)
What is the standard deviation of the number of canaries per cage arriving at the show?
(c)
What is the median of the number of number of canaries per cage arriving at the show?
(d)
Each transport cage is worth $85, and each show canary is valued at $100.
(i)
Write the linear equation for T (the total value in $ of the cage and the canaries inside)
as a function of X (the number of canaries per cage).
(ii)
(iii)
What is the standard deviation of the value of a cage and canaries inside?
Check answers: (a) 3.05 (b) 0.9937 (c) 3 (d)(i) T = 85 + 100 * X (ii) 390 (iii) 99.37
(b)
Stem-and-leaf of Amy
N = 23
Leaf Unit = 0.10
1
1
1
4
6
(7)
10
4
3
1
1
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
055
05
0555555
055555
5
00
0
A fun part of the show is the awarding of three prizes for those canaries owned by children
judged to be the best whistlers. Exactly two children entered their canaries for this
competition. Zoe entered six canaries, and Brett entered five canaries. If the prizes are
awarded at random, evaluate the following (give exact fractions or 4 significant figures for all
answers):
(i)
What is the probability that Zoe wins one prize, and Brett wins two prizes?
(ii)
(ii)
Check answers: (a) Y = -0.1256 + 0.9372*X (b)(i) 4/11 (ii) 18/11 (iii)
0.77139
2
What is an appropriate model for the number of canary visits to this vet? (distribution and
parameter value).
(b)
What extra assumption are you making to be able to use this model? Be explicit in your
answer.
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(g)
Explain briefly why the probabilities in parts (d) and (f) are so different.
different In particular, explain
why one is larger than the other.
Check answers:
(a) Poisson = 1.2 per week
(b) canary visits to the vet are occurring randomly (or ... independent of each other)
(c) 0.2169
(d) 0.002217
(e) the counts in the four weeks must be independent ... this will not be the case if the weeks are
not different
(f) 0.05752
(g) The event {exactly 2 canary visits in each of four weeks} is a subset of the event {exactly eight
canary visits total four week period}
What is the probability that in a show with 17 canaries, there are 3 with black bands?
(b)
What is the probability a judge has to inspect exactly 11 canaries until the fourth one with a
black band is encountered?
(c)
Sometimes, a genetic mutation gives rise to a green canary ... this occurs at a
rate of 2.133 per million canaries. Once per year, a large prize is awarded to
the owner of a green canary if there is more than one winner, the prize is
shared. This year, it is estimated that in the entire country there are 4.25 million
captive canaries. What is the probability the prize is shared (that is, there are at
least two green canaries) this year?
What is P(A)?
(b)
What is P(B)?
(c)
What is P(C)?
Answer parts (d), (e) and (f) if the assistant can tell male and female canaries apart, and puts
them back with a male and female in each cage.
(d)
What is P(C)?
(e)
What is P(B)?
(f)
What is P(A)?
(g)
Check answers: (a) 1/90 (b) 1/15 (c) 2/5 (d) 1 (e) 1/6 (g) A C