2009 Second International Conference on Computer and Electrical Engineering

Decision Support Systems for University Management Processes: An

Approach towards Dynamic Simulation Model
*Louna Al Hallak, *Algirdas Paktas, **Peter Oriogun, *'XLFD1RYDNRYL
*Faculty of Computing, London Metropolitan University
166-220 Holloway Road, London, N7 8DB, England
{l.hallak, a.pakstas, d.novakovic}@londonmet.ac.uk
**School of Information Technology and Communications, American University of Nigeria,
Lamido Zubairu Way, Yola Township By-Pass, PMB 2250, Yola Adamawa State, Nigeria
business universities are usually pretty complex
organizations, often inheriting legacies from the
predecessor institutions and developing layers of
complexities by themselves. This complexity can no
longer be solved using linear statistical models and
forecasting such as regression analysis [3], effective
and efficient management of university resources has
been recognized as vital in terms of workflow
management [4]. Consequently having accurate,
relevant and timely information is a key problem that
university management encounters in their attempt to
make the kind of decisions that current administrative
conditions demand.
The focus of this paper is to introduce the initial
stage of the first authors doctoral research, which is to
investigate the possibility of using dynamic simulation
models to model the decision support processes within
the context of university environment.
The rest of the paper is organized as follow: Section
two provides a brief overview on the use of decision
support systems within higher education institutions
(HEIs). In Section three, we provide a brief
introduction to Systems Dynamics Methodology
(SDM) and its use within HEIs. In Section four and
five, we present SDM case studies, and finally, we
conclude in Section six.

Abstract
Universities are increasingly large in size, with
non-traditional students, inadequate studentteacher
ratios, declining financial support from the state,
increased competition for external funds and increased
competition for limited student demand. The main
objective of this ongoing research is to investigate
existing decision support systems capable of
supporting the provisions of higher education
institutions, such as Universities, and to propose and
develop an interactive decision support system in the
form of a simulation model for university processes
with case studies from Mamoun Private University for
Science and Technology in Syria.

1. Introduction
Over the last twenty years, a number of countries
have invested capital to improve their higher education
sectors. It is widely accepted that education contributes
to the quality of life, both on personal level and across
society. However, this brings many challenges, which
have to be addressed by higher education institutions
(HEIs). According to [1], University provides people
with benefits such as teaching, research, and public
service that are all related to learning. In [2] it argued
that universities have two main functions, namely to
educate and to generate knowledge. Universities
nowadays are increasingly large in size, with
nontraditional students, inadequate studentteacher
ratios, declining financial support from the state,
increased competition for external funds and increased
competition for limited student demand. In addition,
the quality of teaching and learning, research and
consultancy has to be taking into consideration.
Universities most often evolve from the assemblies
of the specialist education institutions. Partially due to
this genesis process and partially due to its nature of
978-0-7695-3925-6/09 $26.00 2009 IEEE
DOI 10.1109/ICCEE.2009.264

2. Decision Support Systems in Higher

Education Institutions
Educational resource planning is a highly complex
administrative procedure based on extensive analysis
of the entire data related to the educational framework,
such as teaching resources, offered degrees, course
structure. Strategic management at universities requires
a comprehensive analysis of large data sets. Usually
the data is not available to decision makers in a useful
form or the available data has not been evaluated
sufficiently to reveal hidden or crucial details. Rapid
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globalization of universities enables researchers to

move from individual solutions to more general
strategic management models, which can be
appropriately adjusted to serve the needs of particular
institution. A number of models now exist with the aim
at facilitating strategic decision-making [5].
Repeatedly experienced problems include nonavailability of the data in an appropriate form and lack
of tools and approaches for its evaluation. From the
early days of information systems, administrative
academic processes such as effective resource
distribution, management of various academic and
service departments, automation of student admission
and registration, student record management, has been
among the important educationalist issues.
In the 1980s, the academic decision theory focused
mainly on formulating the general principles and
approaches of model-based Decision Support Systems
(DSSs) for academic environments [6]. A number of
authors ([7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12], [13], [14], [15],
[5], [16]) have discussed various aspects of the DSSs
for use within higher education institutions, these
include (1) academic resources, academic advising,
course scheduling; (2) resource allocation, planning
and budgeting, corporate governance, performance
assessment, strategic planning; (3) admission policy,
analysis of enrolment demand, capacity management
and enrolment management.

the informationfeedback characteristics of industrial

activity to show how organizational structure,
amplification (in polices), and time delay (in decisions
and actions) interact to influence the success of the
enterprise. The initial name of system dynamics was
industrial dynamics but the concept of industrial
dynamics was gradually applied to urban systems and
social systems, especially world systems [21]. The
name of industrial dynamics has changed into system
dynamics because the method was adapted to all
complex systems beyond the boundary of industrial
systems.

3. 1 Use of System Dynamics Methodology for

Higher Education Institutions
The first attempts to implement simulation models
to handle educational resource management go back to
the 1960s [22] with renewed enthusiasm in the 1990s,
apparently encouraged by the overall advancement of
Information Technology (IT).
It is believed [23] that system dynamics is an
appropriate modelling technique for higher education
management because universities are dynamic,
complex, non-linear systems. Using system dynamic
methodology can be characterized by interactions of
closed chains (or feedback loops), that when combined,
define the structure of the system and its behaviour
over time. System dynamics tools could allow
academic decision makers to better keep under control
the complete and dynamic university system and to
explore the consequences of polices and decisions that
academic management is currently taking [4].
There are a few research groups of system
dynamicists working on models of university
management systems. They use various tools, which
help to visualize relevant concepts. The main
commercial tools are summarized in the Table 1.
In Table 1 Demo means that a free demo is
available over the web. Run Time means that you
can download and test a version that is fully functional,
except it does not allow you to save changes to models.
Extendible systems offer tools to incorporate some
additional
user-defined
functionality.
Userfriendliness (max=5) is a subjective estimate of how
easy it is to use the software once you have learned
how to use it. Learning curve (max=5) is an estimate
of how easy it is to learn to use the software based on
the number of hours needed to formulate a simple onevariable model and run it starting from scratch.
Learning curve=5 means a very easy to learn system.
Learning curve=1 means a very difficult to learn
system. Research related to universities is mostly using
Stella/IThink and Vensim.

3. System Dynamics Methodology

System Dynamics is a modelling method to
understand the dynamics of systems that contain
feedback. The dynamics of change over time include
patterns of change such as growth, decay and
oscillations [17]. It combines the theory, methods and
philosophy needed to analyze the behavior of systems
and it has been used in many fields such as corporate
planning, policy design, biological and medical
modelling, and theory development in the natural and
social sciences. It is a powerful tool that helps assess
complex issues involving delays, feedback and
nonlinearities [18].
System dynamics assumes that dynamic behavior is
common in all systems. Feedback means a process
where one factor impacts another factor until the last
factor influences the first factor, completing a cycle of
influence [19].
Forrester and colleagues developed the idea of
system dynamics at the early 1960s at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology [20]. At the
beginning this work was focused on modeling and
problem solving in industrial system, especially
management systems with emphasis on the study of

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No

Lots of users.
most used in
academia
and business

3. 2 Case Studies
For this doctoral work, the first author proposes to
use real world data from Mamoun University for
Science and Technology in Syria. This is privately
funded institution what will affect types of models to
be used for funding cycles. This will provide good
opportunity to compare value-for-money effects
between state-owned and independent education
providers in the quickly developing sector.

Comments

Learning
curve

Mac/
Win

Extendible

User-friendliness

Stella/
IThink

Platform

Demo/run
time

Name

Table 1. Brief comparison of three most popular

systems dynamics modeling tools (Adapted from [23]).

Vensim

Demo

Mac/
Win

No

Inexpensive

Powersim

Demo

Win

somewhat

Growing
fast. Weboriented

4. Conclusions
The social and economic development of a country
and its competitiveness in continuously shifting
international markets depends on the skills and
competencies of people achieved through higher
education. This ongoing research undertaking is to
explore various avenues of modeling the decisionmaking processes of universities, in particular, a
typical private university in Syria. It is hoped that
using Systems Dynamics modeling techniques will
further assist in shaping higher education.

Stella. In [25] is reported the developing and using

the system dynamics models for planning and
budgeting purposes in Arizona and Houston
Universities, they chose to use system dynamics to
help meet their goal of achieving greater diversity
among their students and serve the higher education
needs. Information generated by system dynamics
models (using tool IThink) is being used in preparing
for future growth in college enrolment. The impact of
management policy on institutional performance with
particular emphasis on the time delays between the
policy decision-making and its implementation is
investigated in [8]. In this paper the question Are
universities learning organizations? and showed that
the pressure on universities is due to governmental
interventions which have created tensions between
achievement of academic and fiscal goals. Teaching
quality investigated in [23]. It identified sectors e.g.
administration, staff performance, departmental
effectiveness, funding, and research, which have to be
considered for a future quality management model.

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research productivity. Issues related to strategic
management and decision making and opportunities to
use a dynamic simulation model as a system for the
support of decision-making processes, namely for
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reported in [26].

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