SEA-LEVEL RISE IMPACT ON COASTAL AREAS OF ESTONIA

ARE KONT, URVE RATAS and ELLE PUURMANN

Estonian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Ecology, Kevade 2, EE0001 Tallinn, Estonia

Abstract. Due to long coastline (3,794 km in total) and extensive low-lying coastal areas, global
climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia. A number of
valuable natural ecosystems (both, marine and terrestrial) containing rare plant communities often
rich in species, but also suitable breeding places for birds will be in danger. Most sandy beaches high
in recreative value will disappear. However, isostatic land uplift and location of coastal settlements at a
distance from the present coastline reduce the rate of risk. Four case study areas characterizing all the
shore types of Estonia have been selected for sea-level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment.
Preliminary results and estimates of vulnerability to 1.0 m sea-level rise by 2075 for two case study
areas Hiiumaa, West-Estonian Archipelago and Parnu-Ikla, south-western coast of the mainland
are presented in this paper.

1. Introduction
Estonia is a seaside country, remaining entirely within the drainage area of the
Baltic Sea. Due to long coastline (3,794 km in total) and predominance of lowlying coastal areas (NW part of the East- European Plain), accelerated sea-level
rise associated with global climate change may strongly affect the territory of
Estonia. On the other hand, location on the southern slope of the Baltic Shield
which is undergoing isostatic land uplift (2.5 mm/year on the northern coast and
1.0 mm/year in the south-west (Vallner et al., 1988)) potentially reduces the effect
of sea-level rise.
Although small in area (45,216 km2 ), Estonia is rich in different geomorphic
types of coasts. The contemporary coast of the country is shoaly and it can be
divided into low and bluff shores. According to the tilt of the primary relief,
geological character of initial rocks and prevailing shore processes, eight various
shore types have been distinguished by Orviku (1992). These are the following:
(1) cliffed shore; (2) scarp shore; (3) rocky shore; (4) till shore; (5) gravel shore;
(6) sandy shore; (7) silty shore; and (8) artificial shore.
All above-listed shores may display a variety of natural patterns according
to which stage of development they have reached depending on the exposure to
prevailing currents, the time of exposure and several other factors (Orviku and
Sepp, 1972).
Different shore types are used by man in different ways. Coastal rural settlements
in Estonia are very old. Some have been founded over 5,000 years ago. First sheds
were probably set up near the coastline. As a result of isostatic uplift of the earths
crust, most of seaside villages are located at a distance from the coastline today.

Climatic Change 36: 175184, 1997.

c 1997 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.

176

ARE KONT ET AL.

Thus, the settlements in coastal areas of Estonia, except for the ports, are not in
direct danger in the case of moderate sea-level rise.
As Estonia is relatively rich in various coastal ecosystems (reed beds, many
different types of meadows including wooded meadows, dunes, cliffs, etc.) which
are often valuable nesting sites for birds and usually containing rare plant species
and plant communities, the main attention must be given to vulnerability and
protection strategies of them.

2. Methods
Four case study areas containing all the above mentioned shore types have been
selected for sea- level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment. One of them
embraces Hiiumaa, the second biggest island of West Estonian Archipelago representing a variety of geomorphic types of coasts characteristic to the whole
archipelago. The other three study areas are situated in different parts of the
mainland and each of them represents mainly one predominating shore type:
Haa demeeste-Ikla sandy shore; The Matsalu Bay silty shore; and Pakri-Tallinn
cliff shore (Figure 1).
Detailed measurements on large-scale (1 : 25 000) topographic maps and calculations according to the Bruun Rule were made along the coastlines every 200 m in
distance. Two main problems appeared doing the measurements: (1) the Estonian
coasts are too shoaly to apply the Bruun Rule without corrections; (2) the overfill ratio, G, was found quite approximately by experience of marine geologists
using the following coefficients: sand 1.0; silt and varved clays 0.7; till (loam
full of pebble and boulders) 0.4; and limestone 0.1. It is worth mentioning
that till shores in Estonia are erodible to certain extent until fine-grained fractions
are entirely washed out. Remaining shingle ridges and boulder fields prove to be
extremely resistant against further erosion.
Based on measurements, calculations and field observations, new coastline
positions were drawn on the topographic maps. Field observations were needful
to compare possible coastline recessions obtained by the Bruun Rule to actually
existing situations, and to do corrections where necessary. Two different coastline
positions were drawn for normal weather conditions and for potential storm
surge attack. Both zones were subjected to inventory of land loss and of temporary
damages respectively.
The data on water-level fluctuations and storm surges (Tables I and II) were
obtained from meteorological and sea-level observation stations (4 stations in
Hiiumaa and 2 stations in Parnu-Ikla coastline section) using data which extend
back to the second half of the previous century. Because of shallow basin and
isolated state, tides have no significance (1 cm in average) in the water regime of
the Baltic Sea. Finally, the data of isostatic land uplift measurements were also
taken into consideration in land loss estimates (Figure 1).

SEA-LEVEL RISE IMPACT ON COASTAL AREAS OF ESTONIA

177

Figure 1. Location of case study areas on the scheme of isobases of annual velocities of vertical movements in Estonia (Vallner et al., 1988). = isobases;
//// = case study areas: A = Hiiumaa; B = Parnu-Ikla; C = Matsalu Bay; D = Pakri-Tallinn.

178

ARE KONT ET AL.

Table I
Maximum and minimum sea levels (in cm related to the Kronstadt bench mark) and possible
coastline recessions (in m) in 1.0 m sea-level rise in Hiiumaa. CR coastline recession
Month

CR

118
30

126
16

138
5

136
5

153
8

230
30

81
32

89
29

83
53

86
56

123
78

100
30

51
39

68
34

73
49

57
53

84
97

170
50

71
24

71
46

65
61

84
99

140
25

Tahkuna
Max
Min

144
0

135
22

135
10

126
6

104
7

104
20

112
30
Ristna

Max
Min

112
48

95
63

95
68

58
65

47
50

53
40

55
25
Soru

Max
Min

87
57

73
85

70
69

51
67

29
44

43
43

39
25

Heltermaa
Max
Min

93
54

80
76

85
71

53
68

26
50

47
39

48
22

60
28

Table II
Maximum and minimum sea levels (in cm related to the Kronstadt bench mark) and possible coastline
recessions (in m) in 1.0 m sea-level rise in Parnu-Ikla case study area. CR coastline recession
Month

CR

159
51

174
61

179
95

183
100

153
120

185
20

94
47

99
38

118
62

95
82

127
133

150
15

Parnu
Max
Min

159
107

155
87

175
103

179
115

135
85

94
65

97
39
Kihnu

Max
Min

132
102

150
85

135
86

68
86

92
58

59
48

67
27

3. Results
The present paper contains preliminary results of the vulnerability assessment to
1.0 m sea-level rise through 2075 for the two first case study areas. The other two
test areas are still under study. A 0.3 m scenario would not give measurable effect
because of the predominant land uplift. A few adaptation options are also included,
however, assessment of socio-economic consequences and possible adaptation
strategies to sea-level rise are still under study.

SEA-LEVEL RISE IMPACT ON COASTAL AREAS OF ESTONIA

179

Hiiumaa (989 km2 in area) is located in the northern part of the West Estonian
Archipelago and is surrounded by nearly 200 small islets. It is a low-lying island
with elevations varying between 0 and 10 m above sea level. The highest point on
the Kopu Peninsula (68 m) is an exception.
The geological structure of the island is quite simple. Folded crystalline rocks of
the fundament lying 200300 m below present sea level are covered by Ordovician
and Silurian sedimentary rocks (limestones, dolomites, marls). The bedrock is
covered by a comparatively thin layer (about 10 m in average) of Quaternary
deposits.
The coastline (325 km) is rather straight in the west and in the east with
peninsulas and bays coastline sections more characteristic to the north- west and
south-east. Main coastal types are: (1) beaches with coastal ridges and dunes; (2)
gravel shores with coastal ridges; (3) abraded till shores with erratic boulders; (4)
silty shores surrounding shallow bays; and (5) low limestone shores. The only city
Kardla and its harbours have artificial shores with protection structures.
According to the data obtained in four meteorological and sea- level observation
stations in Hiiumaa (Figure 2), it can be said that the highest sea-levels have been
measured in the stations most exposed to waves and storm surges (Table I) extending
1.53 m over the Kronstadt 0 (local bench mark for the eastern part of the Baltic
Sea) in Tahkuna. At the same time sea- level fluctuations are more considerable
on the eastern and southern coasts of the island, probably as a result of the greater
number of shoals.
Although, precise relevelling indicates a slow uplift of the earths crust in
Hiiumaa today (Vallner et al., 1988), there has been erosion of sandy beaches in
past decades, and in some places the sea is advancing again (Orviku, 1987). Since
1954, Hiiumaa has been subject to at least eight extremely strong storms (in 1954,
1967, 1969, 1971, 1975, 1983, 1986, 1990), of the kind that, according to statistics,
should occur only once in a hundred years. In the autumn and winter period, the
westerly and south-westerly storm winds raise the water up to 2 m above its summer
level. As there is little evidence of a rising sea level in Estonia over this period,
beach erosion appears to be largely due to recent increased storminess in the eastern
Baltic Sea.
The results of measurements and calculations show that the most vulnerable
shore types to sea-level rise are shoaly sandy and silty shores. Sandy beaches are
concentrated on the western coast of Hiiumaa, while silty shores are prevailing in
the north-west and south-east. Most extensive coastline recessions (over 500 m)
would occur on silty shores, nearby Korgessaare and Kaina (Figure 2). 38 km2 of
coastal territory of Hiiumaa will submerge in the case of 1.0 m sea-level rise. The
land loss includes 21.5 km2 of coastal meadows, 8.3 km2 of forests and 5.6 km2
of beaches. 155 low-lying islets nearby the coast of Hiiumaa disappear and over
40 new islets appear by separation from present headlands. A number of valuable
coastal ecosystems, plant communities and plant species will be destroyed. Part of

180
ARE KONT ET AL.

Figure 2. Hiiumaa case study area.

 = inundation zone;  = storm surge zone; N = hydrometeorological observation station.

SEA-LEVEL RISE IMPACT ON COASTAL AREAS OF ESTONIA

181

them are located within the limits of the Hiiumaa Biosphere Reserve which is rich
in valuable breeding places for birds.
Preliminary estimates of losses indicate that 100% of reed beds, 80% of coastal
meadows including rare saline plant communities of Salicornia europaea, Glaux
maritima-Juncus gerardi and Carex glareosa site types are in direct danger. In
addition to the above-listed communities, biotopes of several unique plant species
such as Myosotis laxa, Samolus valerandi, Sagina maritima, Herminium monorchis,
Halimione pedunculata, Suaeda maritima, Coeloglossum viride and Polygonum
oxyspermum (Red Data Book of the Baltic Region, 1993) are also threatened. A very
unusual complex of ecosystems consisting of numerous lagoons with calciphilous
meadows rich in orchids surrounding them on the north-western coast of Hiiumaa
completely disappear.
As the villages are usually situated at a distance from the present coastline,
there will be only 18 dwellings in direct danger. About 60 boathouses and sheds
for nets are located within the limits of inundation zone. Additionally, 550 buildings including 332 dwellings, 44 km roads will be at risk during strongest storm
surges. 7 harbors, 8 lighthouses, 9 km of roads connecting harbors with villages
and nearly 50% of the territory of Kardla, the only city of Hiiumaa need protection
by constructing seawalls and dikes. Storehouses in the harbors will need reconstruction. Korgessaare will be isolated from the rest of Hiiumaa. The most effective
adaptation option to preserve natural ecosystems in Hiiumaa would be hardening
of headlands to avoid the coastline straightning.
The Parnu-Ikla study area is located in SW Estonia on the western coast of the
Gulf of Riga. Most of the area is made up of accumulation sandy beaches with an
extensive ridge of coastal formations covered by foredunes and dunes. The highest
dunes of Estonia (40 m above sea level) are situated in the southern part of the
study area. This is one of the most popular recreation areas with famous health
resorts in Parnu and numerous motels between Rannametsa and Ikla.
Measurements and calculations according to the Bruun Rule indicate the sections most vulnerable to sea- level rise are located in the northern part of the study
area where silty shore type is predominant (Figure 3). Coastal ridges as potential
protections against inundation are located at a distance from todays coastline. During recent strong storms, the waves have reached many dwellings, located about
300 m from the sea. In places where ridges of coastal formations are interrupted
by brook valleys or drains, low-lying meadows extending landwards beyond the
ridges and dunes are also vulnerable to sea-level rise, being potentially inundated
by numerous drains. Dikes built before the last world war are no longer effective.
In high water level conditions erosion of dunes is evident.
In the case of 1.0 m sea-level rise, 22.2 km2 of coastal territory (0.3 km2
forests, 20.5 km2 meadows, 1.4 km2 beaches) will be submerged. Isostatic land
uplift here (about 1.0 mm/year) is less efficient than in Hiiumaa. That is why the
relative land loss compared with that in Hiiumaa is much greater (the coastline
length is only 70 km). One small and low islet existing today will submerge, and

182

Figure 3. Parnu-Ikla case study area.

rological observation station.

ARE KONT ET AL.

 = inundation zone;  = storm surge zone; N = hydrometeo-

SEA-LEVEL RISE IMPACT ON COASTAL AREAS OF ESTONIA

183

the 5 m high Piklanina headland will turn to islet. 1.8 km2 of the territory of Parnu
including valuable beach and health resorts will be in danger. The strongest storm
surges may embrace an additional 22.6 km2 of coastal territory. About one third of
Parnu city and over 450 buildings outside Parnu are located in this zone.
Finally, it can be said that there are few highly valuable natural ecosystems
in Parnu-Ikla case study area which would need special protection. The main
problems here are connected to socio-economic aspects, particularly to protection
of recreation values. The best beaches ought to be saved.

4. Conclusions
Due to relatively small territory and long traditions in the natural sciences, all
natural components of the coastal system are well investigated and mapped in
Estonia. Consequently quite easy to assess vulnerability of the natural ecosystems
and possible changes in their structure as a result of global climate change. It is
obvious that different types of coasts are vulnerable in different ways. Each study
area needs a specific approach in estimating potential losses and selecting the best
adaptation policies.
Preliminary assessment of different shore types in various locations of Estonia
shows that different rates of isostatic land uplift and different geomorphic types of
coasts cause the degree of inundation to vary from place to place. Most vulnerable
to sea-level rise are sandy and silty shores in SW Estonia. Cliff, scarp and till shores
typical of the northern part of the country are naturally much better protected.
Sparsely populated coastal areas in Estonia are often rich in unique and scientifically valuable ecosystems (West-Estonian Biosphere Reserve, Vilsandi National
Park, Matsalu Nature Reserve, etc.) which must be preserved for future generations.
At the same time, it is extremely difficult to estimate their monetary value. Densely
populated areas, particularly cities with their infrastructure, harbors and recreation zones also need protection. Thus, every coastal area of Estonia is vulnerable
to possible sea-level rise, and deserves the formulation of appropriate adaptation
options.

Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the U.S. Country Studies Management Team for giving
us the possibility to participate in the U.S. Country Studies Program and for their
review and recommendations during the production of this paper. We are also
grateful to Dr. Kaarel Orviku for helpful comments.

184

ARE KONT ET AL.

References
Ingelog, T., Andersson, R., and Tjernberg, M. (eds.): 1993, Red Data Book of the Baltic Region 1,
Lists of Threatened Vascular Plants and Vertebrates, Uppsala, Riga, p. 95.
Orviku, K. and Sepp, U.: 1972, Stages of Geological Development and Landscape Types of the Islets
of the West-Estonian Archipelago, in Geogr. Studies, Valgus, Tallinn, pp. 1525.
Orviku, K.: 1987, The Coast of Estonia and Its Changes, Eesti Loodus 11, 712719 (in Estonian
with summations in Russian and in English).
Orviku, K.: 1992, Characterization and Evolution of Estonian Seashores, Summary of Doctoral
Thesis at Tartu University, Tartu, p. 20.
Vallner, L., Sildvee, H., and Torim, A.: 1988, Recent Crustal Movements in Estonia, J. Geodynam.
9, 215223.
(Received 17 November 1995; in revised form 4 October 1996)