20/10/2015

LAB WORK OF 20/10/2015

Q1.

A study of demand (dt) for past 12years (t=1,2,..12) has indicated the following :ai = { 100 when t=1,2,5;
20 when t=6;
100 when t=7,812}.
Compute:
a. 4-year moving average
b. 3-year moving average

Ans1 (a).
Step-1 Enter the data in the Data View after defining suitable variables in Variable View.
The data view will be as follows:

Step-2 Now go to Transform then create time series then firstly set the function to
centered moving average choose the span (here, it is = 4)now choose the
variable whose moving average is to be found out change the variable name( if want
to)Click on Ok.

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Step-3 The data view will be having the 4-year moving average under the variable name dt_1
as:-

Step-4 Repeat step-2 with span = 3 years with a different variable name. The dialog box will
be as follows:

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Step-5 Therefore, the data view will be as follows where dt_1 shows 4-year moving average
and dt_2 shows 3-year moving average:

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Q2.

The data in below table relating to the annual production of all cereals (including rice )
in India during 1970-1985 are shown. Eliminate the cyclic fluctuations and determine
the underlying trend by using method of moving averages.
TOTAL
YEAR
PRODUCTION
(TONNES)
1970-71
96604
1971-72
94074
1972-73
87119
1973-74
94657
1974-75
89812
1975-76
107995
1976-77
99806
1977-78
114434
1978-79
119719
1979-80
101129
1980-81
118962
1981-82
121788
1982-83
117662
1983-84
139481
1984-85
134029

Ans2.
Step-1 Enter the data in the Data View after defining suitable variables in Variable View.
The data view will be as follows:
Step-2 Firstly, we have to find out the span for the moving average:For this we have to draw the graph for the data and then find out the peaks.

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From graphs the peak years are1974; 1976; 1979; 1982; 1984
After finding the peak years find out the average of the difference in between the peak
years.
Consecutive Difference in peak years= 2(1976-1974); 3(1979-1976); 3(1982-1979);
2(1984-1982)
Therefore , Average=
So, well go for 3-year moving average.
Step-3 Now go to Transform then create time series then firstly set the function to
centered moving average choose the span (here, it is = 4)now choose the
variable whose moving average is to be found out change the variable name( if want
to)Click on Ok.

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Step-4 The data view will be having the 4-year moving average under the variable name dt_2
as follows:-

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Q3.

In a certain industry, the production of a certain commodity (in 1000 units) during the
years 1994-2004 is given in below table:1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
YEARS
PRODUCTION 66.6 84.9 88.6 78.0 96.8 105.2 93.2 111.6 88.3 117.0 115.2
(i)

Compute the trend values for the year 1994-2004 and estimate the production
of commodity during the years by using straight line approach.

Ans3
Step-1 Enter the data in the data view after defining suitable variables in the variable view.

Step-2 Go to Analyze Regression Curve Estimation Dependent variable (put

production here) Independent variable (put time here)Mark linear for straight
line/ mark compound for exponential/mark quadratic for quadratic fit Click
OK.

Model Summary and Parameter Estimates

Dependent Variable: production
Equation

Linear

Model Summary

Parameter
Estimates

R Square

df1

df2

Sig.

Constant

b1

.669

18.173

.002

71.358

3.946

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Step-3 To compute the trend values go to transform compute variable set the
ytrend values in {A(year-1993)+B} format where A=3.946 and B=71.358, the data
view will be as follows:

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Q4.

Given the population figures of India as follows:

Census
1911
(year) (t)
Population 25.0
(in crores)

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

25.1

27.9

31.9

36.1

43.9

54.7

Fit an exponential curve trend y=abt to the above data by the method of least squares
and find the trend values.
Ans4.
Step-1 Enter the data in the data view after defining suitable variables in the variable view.

Step-2 Go to Analyze Regression Curve Estimation Dependent variable (put

production here) Independent variable (put time here) Mark linear for straight
line/ mark compound for exponential fit/mark quadratic for quadratic fit Click
OK.

Model Summary and Parameter Estimates

Dependent Variable: PRODUCTION
Equation

Compound

Model Summary

Parameter Estimates

R Square

df1

df2

Sig.

Constant

b1

.946

87.269

.000

19.739

1.142

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Step-3 To compute the trend values go to transform compute variable set the
y_trend values in {A*(B**X} format where A=19.739 and B=1.142, the data view
will be as follows: