1.

Coercion and the Use of Military Force

a. How does one asses the use of military force
i. Is it usefull
ii. Value-costs=utility
iii. Value
1. Defensive and offensive
iv. Cost
1. Direct or indirect
2. Manifest or latent
b. Exercise of power
i. Active or latent
ii. Active
1. Supportive
2. Coercive
a. Compellence or deterrence
iii. Latent
1. Deterrent
2. Supportive
iv. Defense
1. Preserve status quo
a. Ward off physical attack
b. Minimize damage if attacked
2. Preventive defense
3. Preemptive defense
v. Coercion
1. The use of influence through threats
vi. Threats are contingent on the transgressors behavior
vii. Psychological
1. Threats have to be calculated
c. Deterrence
i. Communication
1. Need to inform them of the threat
2. The unspelled out threat are taken advantage of
ii. Capability
1. Enemy must think you inflict costs that out way the
benefits
2. Who makes the threat and how well it can be carried out
iii. Credibility
1. How well can you pull off the threat
2. Is the threat too outrageous
3. Needs to be believed
4. Resolve
a. Act on the threat
b. Dont back down on the threat
c. Countries forced into a stance
d. Problems
i. World leaders making decisions
1. Pressure
2. Unstable
3. Imperfect info

4. Different belief system

2. WMDs Weapons of Mass Destruction
a. Mass Casualties
b. Single Use, Compressed Delivery
c. Qualitative issues
i. Should be disproved of
ii. Evil
iii. Bastardized
d. Compressed time and effect
e. Types
i. Nuclear
1. Bang for your buck
2. Atomic bombs and hydrogen bombs
ii. Chemical
1. Most common
2. Mustard Gas
3. Cl
4. G series
5. V series
6. Often causes temporarily disability
7. Degrades fighting efficiency
8. 1993 banned of usage but not stockpile
a. Helps to delegitimize
iii. Biological
1. Types
a. Anthrax
b. Botulinum
c. Small Pox
d. Ricin
e. Plague
2. Harder to use than chemical, spreading is harder
3. Rates of infection
iv. Radiological
1. Spreading of radioactive material
2. Dirty Bombs
3. Sub state use
4. Terrorist use
a. Can get from medical and commercial
f. Arms Control and WMD
i. Norms created to show that WMDs are bad
ii. Stopping nuclear weapon production
iii. Stop nuclear weapon testing
iv. Manage confrontation
g. Nuclear Weapons Free Zones
i. Doesnt include Major Powers
h. Disarmament and Defense
i. Disarmament cant work
1. If one doesnt pitch in the everyone is fucked
ii. Defense
1. How can you protect form small nukes

2.
3.
4.
5.

3.

4.

5.
6.

Pigs on targets to see how it works

Give Pigs Life Jackets
What Happens when you drop nukes on things
Air defense
a. Pre wetting
b. Citadel in the ship
c. Radiation suits
d. Shoot down incoming threat
e. Protect and survive, domestic nuclear shelters
6. How to protect a civilian population
a. 4 minute warning
iii. Preemptive attack
Nuclear Deterrence
a. Used to deter major incidents
b. You nuke me I nuke you
c. Second strike capability
d. Use it or lose it
i. Do you have a second strike capability with entry level nuclear
powers
Secure Second Strike
a. Mutual Vulnerability
b. Mutually Assured Destruction
c. Intelligence + Communication
d. Partnership
i. SALT
ii. Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty
iii. START
Only you can protect yourself from nukes
Nuclear War Fighting Strategy
a. Ladder of crisis
b. Local nuclear war
i. Swap pawns, like chess
ii. Nuking up and up in value