Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
(RED)
Modelo de Evaluacin Econmica de
Caminos de Bajo Volumen de
Trnsito
Julio, 2004
Rodrigo Archondo-Callao
Banco Mundial
Objetivos de RED
Simplificar la evaluacin econmica de caminos de
bajo trafico
Mejor capturar los beneficios econmicos de un
proyecto
Caracterizar la estacin seca y de lluvia por
separado
Incluir en el anlisis el alto nivel de incertidumbre
relativo a caminos de bajo trafico (anlisis de riesgo)
Producir evaluaciones adecuadas de sensitividad,
umbrales limites, impacto a los usuarios,y
distribucin de los beneficios evaluados
Hacer una optimizacin de inversiones bajo
restricciones presupuestarias y un anlisis de criterio
mltiplo
Desarrollo de RED
RED esta siendo desarrollado por el Banco
Mundial para el programa Africa Sub-Saharan
Africa Transport Policy Program (SSATP)
RED versin 1.0 fue completada en1999, la
versin 3.2 esta siendo completada en 2004
RED esta siendo usado a nivel de proyecto y a
nivel red en muchos pases (Nicaragua, Turqua,
Ecuador, Chad, Argentina, Etiopa, Guatemala,
Laos, Cambodia, Yemen, Sur frica, etc.)
RED en su nueva versin 3.2 esta disponible en el
sitio:
http://www.worldbank.org/afr/ssatp/Models/RED/RED
_Contents.htm
Productos de RED
HDM-III HDM-4
RED
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Passenger Time
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Accidents
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
External
External
External
Caractersticas de RED
a) Nivel de servicio constante medio en el periodo de
evaluacin
b) Tres opciones para definir el nivel de servicio
c) Dos periodos durante el ao: periodos con y sin
transitabilidad directa (estaciones de lluvia y seca)
d) Ecuaciones definidas por los usuarios relacionando
costos a los usuarios y velocidades a rugosidad
e) Beneficios resultantes de trafico generado, inducido
y desviado
f) Anlisis de riesgo con distribuciones triangulares
g) Optimizacin bajo restricciones presupuestarias
h) Anlisis de criterio mltiplo y costo eficiencia
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1
6
Year
10
Car
VOC
Car
Speed
Utility
VOC
Utility
Speed
Bus
VOC
Bus
Speed
c) Rugosidad
& Velocidad de
los Vehculos
b) Velocidad de
un Vehculo de
Referencia
.......
Light
Truck
VOC
Heavy
Truck
VOC
.......
Light
Truck
Speed
Heavy
Truck
Speed
| b)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Car
| VOC
|
|
|
|
Car
| Speed
|
Input Reference
Vehicle Speed
Estimated Road
Roughness
Utility
VOC
Utility
Speed
Bus
VOC
Bus
Speed
.......
Light
Truck
VOC
Heavy
Truck
VOC
.......
Light
Truck
Speed
Heavy
Truck
Speed
| c)
|
|
Input Road
|
Roughness
|
|
|
|
|
|
Heavy
|
Car
Truck
| VOC . VOC
|
|
|
Input Speeds
|
for All Vehicles
|
.
|
Das Por Ao
Sin Transitabilidad Directa
- Diferente Longitud
- Diferente Rugosidad
- Diferente Velocidades
Mayores Costos del
Transporte
Terrain Type
A
Road
Type
Y
Z
AZ
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
10
15
20
25
20
25
Roughness (IRI)
Vehicle
Type
Car
Utility
Light Bus
Medium Bus
Heavy Bus
Light Truck
Medium Truck
Heavy Truck
Articulated Truck
20
0
0
10
15
Roughness (IRI)
0.45
0.45
0.40
0.40
0.35
0.35
R = 0.9997
0.30
0.30
0.25
0.25
0.20
0.20
0.15
0.15
0.10
0.10
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0
10
15
20
25
Roughness (IRI)
HDM-III Values
30
10
15
20
25
Roughness (IRI)
HDM-III Values
Polynomial
Ecuacin Polinmica
Cbica
30
Transport Costs
Transport Costs
Consumer
Surplus
Consumer
Surplus
COST1
COST1
COST2
COST2
d2
d1
ADT1
Normal
Traffic
ADT2
Traffic
Generated Traffic
due to Decrease in
Transport Costs
User enters:
- Percent of normal traffic or
or
- Price elasticity of demand =
d1
ADT2
ADT3
Traffic
Generated Traffic
due to Special Local
Economic Development
User enters:
- Amount of generated traffic due to special local economic development
Africa Region
Road Management Initiative
Road from Point A to Point B
2
Upgrade to ST
Internal Rate of Return
Upgrade Road to Surface Treatment Standard
Normal Traffic
35%
30%
Frequency Distribution
Country
Project
Road
Option
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Minimum
Maximum
Average
Standard Deviation
Median
Percentile
Percentile
Percentile
25%
50%
75%
4.2%
22.7%
11.9%
3.5%
11.7%
9.4%
11.7%
14.1%
12%
12%
50%
50%
1.96
1.88
1.81
1.73
1.65
1.58
1.50
1.42
1.35
1.27
1.19
1.12
1.04
0.96
0.88
0.81
0.73
0.65
0.58
0.50
0%
Multiplier Factor
8%
7%
Multiplier Factor
24.5%
23.5%
22.4%
21.4%
20.4%
19.4%
18.3%
17.3%
16.3%
15.3%
1.96
1.88
1.81
1.73
1.65
1.58
1.50
1.42
1.35
1.27
1.19
1.12
1.04
0.96
0.88
0.81
0.73
0.65
0.58
0%
14.2%
0%
13.2%
2%
12.2%
1%
11.2%
4%
10.1%
2%
9.1%
6%
3%
8.1%
8%
4%
7.1%
10%
0.50
Frequency Distribution
12%
5%
6.0%
14%
6%
5.0%
Frequency Distribution
25.00
20.00
A
R
D
E
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
Internal
Equivalent
Modified
PV
Financial
NPV
NPV
Present
Rate
Annual
Internal Rate
of Economic
Investment
per
per
Investment
Program-Alternative
Value
of Return
Benefits
of Return
Agency Costs
Cost
PV Agency
Description
(M$)
(%)
($/km)
(%)
(%)
(M$)
(#)
(#)
Unconstrained Budged
20.40
63%
322414
20%
9.01
8.92
2.26
2.29
Budget Constraint A
20.25
70%
319993
21%
7.97
7.72
2.54
2.62
Code
Budget Constraint B
19.50
77%
308123
21%
6.92
6.52
2.82
2.99
Budget Constraint C
18.94
81%
299261
22%
6.27
5.96
3.02
3.18
Budget Constraint D
17.59
91%
277943
22%
5.22
4.76
3.37
3.70
Budget Constraint E
16.13
101%
254813
23%
4.51
3.84
3.58
4.20
Recommended Program
20.40
63%
322414
20%
9.01
8.92
2.26
2.29
Road
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Road
ID
R01
R02
R03
R04
R05
R06
R07
R09
Road
Name
Road R01 with 25 AADT
Road R02 with 50 AADT
Road R03 with 100 AADT
Road R04 with 200 AADT
Road R05 with 300 AADT
Road R06 with 400 AADT
Road R07 with 500 AADT
Road R08 with 600 AADT
Road
Name
Road R01 with 25 AADT
Road R02 with 50 AADT
Road R03 with 100 AADT
Road R04 with 200 AADT
Road R05 with 300 AADT
Road R06 with 400 AADT
Road R07 with 500 AADT
Road R08 with 600 AADT
Number
0
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
Criteria
1
1
Criteria
1
(-10/0/10)
-10
0
0
-10
0
10
0
-10
Financial
Net
NPV
Internal
Population
Investment
Present
per
Rate Population
per
Cost
Value Investment of Return Served
Investment
Name
(M$)
(M$)
(#)
(%) (persons) (person/1000$)
Current Poor Condition
0.000
0.000
0.000
#N/A
750
0
Bring to Fair Condition
0.120
0.004
0.032
12.9%
1000
8
Bring to Good Condition
0.400
0.278
0.694
29.4%
1000
3
Pave with ST
1.600
1.230
0.768
31.4%
2000
1
Pave with ST
1.600
2.626
1.641
50.3%
3500
2
Pave with ST
1.600
4.023
2.514
68.0%
3000
2
Pave with ST
3.387
85.3%
4000
3
Multi-Criteria1.600
Weights 5.420
Pave with AC 6m
2.000
6.823
3.412
85.8%
3000
2
Criteria
Criteria
Criteria
Criteria
Criteria
Criteria
Criteria
Sum
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 Weights
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
6
Multi-Criteria Indicators
Criteria
Criteria
Criteria
Criteria
Criteria
Criteria
Criteria
Criteria
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Overall
(-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10)
-10
-10
10
0
10
-2
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
10
10
-10
0
3
0
10
-10
0
-10
-3
0
-10
-10
10Importance
-10 Rank
-3 Class
Importance
-10
0
0 (1-highest,
0 2-second,
0 3-third, etc.)
0
(-10-low, 0-medium,
10-high)
0
10
10 Economic
10
0
5
Population
MultiEconomic Population
Multi0
0
0
-10
-10
-5
Analysis
Served
Criteria
Analysis
Served
Criteria
NPV
Population
MultiNPV
Population
Multiper
per
Criteria
per
per
Criteria
Road
Investment Investment
Sum
Investment Investment
Overall
Name
(#)
(#)
(#)
(-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10)
Road R01 with 25 AADT
8
8
5
-10
-10
0
Road R02 with 50 AADT
7
1
3
-10
10
10
Road R03 with 100 AADT
6
2
2
-10
10
10
Road R04 with 200 AADT
5
7
6
0
-10
-10
Road R05 with 300 AADT
4
4
6
0
0
-10
Road R06 with 400 AADT
3
5
3
10
0
10
Road R07 with 500 AADT
2
2
1
10
10
10
Road R08 with 600 AADT
1
6
8
10
-10
-10
Mdulos de RED
Nuevo
Module de Costo de Operacin de
Vehculos con HDM-III
RED - HDM-III VOC (versin 3.2).xls
Modulo Principal de
Evaluacin Econmica
RED - Principal (versin 3.2).xls
Nuevo
Modulo de Anlisis
de Riesgo
RED - Riesgo (versin 3.2).xls
Modulo de Evaluacin de
Un Programa de Obras
RED - Programa (versin 3.2).xls