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WEEKLY
COMMODITY REPORT

Metals Gain On Weak Dollar !!

12th April 2010 to 17th Apr 2010
 Weekly Commodity Report
12th April to 17th Apr 2010
RESEARCH

ECONOMIC DATA

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Mon 11:30pm USD Federal Budget Balance -101.0B -220.9B

Apr 12

Tue 6:00pm USD Trade Balance -101.0B -220.9B

Apr 13 6:00pm Import Prices m/m 0.9% -0.3%
USD
7:30pm USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 47.8 45.4
8:15pm USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
Wed 4:30am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Apr 14
6:00pm USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%

6:00pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.8%

6:00pm USD Retail Sales m/m 1.0% 0.3%
6:00pm USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%

7:00pm USD FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks

7:30pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
7:30pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.2% 0.0%
8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.0M
11:30pm USD Beige Book
Thu 6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 439K 460K
Apr 15
6:00pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 24.0 22.9
6:30pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 20.3B 19.1B
6:45pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 73.3% 72.7%
6:45pm USD Industrial Production m/m 0.5% 0.1%
7:30pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 19.7 18.9
8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 31B

9:45pm USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

10:30pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 17 15

Fri 6:00pm USD Building Permits 0.63M 0.64M

Apr 16
6:00am USD Housing Starts 0.60M 0.58M
6:30pm USD FOMC Member Warsh Speaks
7:25pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 74.7 73.6
7:25pm USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.7%
10:30pm USD FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks

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 Weekly Commodity Report
12th April to 17th Apr 2010
RESEARCH

Fundamental Market Overview

Gold futures are trading under pressure due to the slight appreciation in India rupee at the “MCX GOLD DOWN
MCX counter on Friday. However, yellow metal in the international market is trading ON STRONG RUPEE ”
higher. COMEX gold is trading higher by 4 cents at $ 1153.3 per ounce. Next week we
may see some downside in gold. Gold escalated to near $1155 levels on Fed's statement
that they will keep the rates at current ultra low levels for extended period of time. The
Greece bailout uncertainty also boosted the metal. Gold is trading tad lower at $1,151/oz
while the dollar index is marginally changed. Day ahead looks for German trade surplus
and current account surplus data which are expected to post rising numbers. ECB
president Trichet's remarks yesterday about Greece's ability to pay its debt may also help
euro regain some of its lost grounds. US wholesale inventories are expected to have risen
in February which may have mixed impacts on the dollar. Euro's recovery may boost
bullion prices during the day.

Crude oil futures surged in the domestic exchange on firm global cues driven by strong “MCX CRUDE EDGES
Asian markets sentiments on Friday. However the appreciation in the Rupee might hinder UP ON STRONG
the upside for oil. NYMEX Oil futures surged to almost $ 88 a barrel this week following GLOBAL CUES ”
the optimistic economic data from US and Japan, which filled the confidence that
demand for oil would rise. On NYMEX prices closed yesterday at $85.39 with a loss of
0.57 percent. Economic data from Euro zone and Germany came negative for oil prices.
US weekly jobs report yesterday showed a rise in initial jobless claims while showing a
drop in continuous claims. Today economic data from Germany may show a rise in trade
balance which may have a positive impact on prices. US whole sale inventories also rising
may however have a negative impact on prices in the evening. Overall the prices may
trade higher during the day on account of easing of concerns over Greece.

Copper prices are rising in the domestic futures market on Friday in line with firming
“MCX COPPER
global sentiments due to strong equities and higher demand for the metal. MCX Copper
RISES ON FIRM
futures for April closed at Rs 350.95 per kg, around Rs 3 from the previous close and hit a
EQUITIES”
high of Rs 352.30 per kg in the first one hour of trades. The prices are likely to extend the
rise as fresh buying is emerging. The open interest in the counter is up nearly 1% so far.
The COMEX Copper futures for front month are hovering at $3.5945, up 0.22% and look
likely to break above $3.60 in the session. The metal is poised for a third straight weekly
gain. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange climbed near $8000 per tonne
and some more gains look in the offing for the red metal today. The LME 3-month
forward copper traded low for the day as investors doubt supply and demand
fundamentals can't justify prices around $8,000 a tonne. Prices ticked low by 0.67% to
$7,892 per tonnes, while intraday high of $7,912.25 per tonnes. The London Metal
Exchange maintained copper inventory added 600 tonnes to closing levels of 511,250
tonnes. The cancelled warrants ratio, material earmarked for delivery lower to 0.0334
from the prior day's levels of 0.034. Anglo American warned that global copper supply
could be constrained for the next decade, with miners struggling to squeeze more metal
out of declining grades and a shortage of quality projects. Global demand would
probably recover this year to pre-crisis levels, with brighter prospects in the U.S. Market as
automobile sales recovers whereas European demand was more of a mixed picture.

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 Weekly Commodity Report
12th April to 17th Apr 2010
RESEARCH

Technical Analysis
GOLD

Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

GOLD 1285 1240 1195 1178 1149 1135 1104 1058 1013

GOLD (Weekly Chart)

Market Overview Strategy

Last week Comex gold COMEX Gold break the level of 1140$ and
sustained above it. In the coming week 1180 $ an ounce will act as
strong resistance and COMEX Gold should test the level of 1180$
an ounce. If Comex Gold sustains above 1180$ an ounce then it
can make a slightly upward till 1200$ an ounce, and if it fails to
sustain above 1180$ then it can slightly downward rally below
1140$ an ounce till 1120$ / 1105$ an ounce.
For the next week traders can use the buy on lower level strategy
if it sustains above 1145$ an ounce by keeping the strict stop
losses.
Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week would be
1139$ and 1084$
Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week would be
1180$ and 1226$
Major support in MCX gold is 16420 and 15800
Major resistance in MCX gold is 17130 and 17650
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 Weekly Commodity Report
12th April to 17th Apr 2010
RESEARCH

SILVER

Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

SILVER 2010 1947 1883 1859 1820 1795 1756 1693 1630

SILVER (Weekly Chart)

Market Overview Strategy

COMEX Silver is technically strong on charts, and is not sustaining For the Next Week traders can use sell on higher level strategy if
at higher levels. $ 1900 and $ 1910 will be a major resistance in it does not sustain above the level of $1900/ 1910$ an ounce, by
COMEX Silver and $1780 and $1750 will be a good support in the keeping the proper stop losses.
coming week. If COMEX Silver fails to sustains above 1900 $ /
1910$ an ounce then it can make a slightly downward rally below
1800$ an ounce.

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 Weekly Commodity Report
12th April to 17th Apr 2010
RESEARCH

CRUDE OIl

Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

CRUDE 94.29 91.32 88.35 86.63 85.38 83.66 82.41 79.44 76.47

CRUDE OIL (Weekly Chart)

Market Overview Strategy

NYMEX Crude touched the level of $87 last week, but it failed to
sustain above $ 85. For the coming week if it sustains above $ 87
it can make an upside rally. If NYMEX CRUDE does not sustains
above $ 83 a barrel then below $ 77.90 a slight downward rally
can come in the short term.
For the next week traders can use the buy on lower level strategy
if NYMEX Crude sustains above $ 87 a barrel by keeping the
proper stop loss.

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 Weekly Commodity Report
12th April to 17th Apr 2010
RESEARCH

COPPER

Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

COPPER 389.80 379.50 369.10 364.10 358.80 353.70 348.40 338.10 327.70

COPPER (Weekly Chart)

Market Overview Strategy

COMEX Copper is still in uptrend and in the previous week it
has closed above the important level of 359. For the coming
week if it sustains above 359 we can see an upward rally till 375
levels, and below if it breaks the level of 353, then it can go till
340 levels.
For the coming week traders should use the strategy of buying on lower
levels if Copper sustains above 359. COMEX Copper has a crucial Support
of 341 and 327and Resistance at 378 and 390.
For MCX Copper Support is found at 332 and 313 and Resistance at 370
and 387.

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 Weekly Commodity Report
12th April to 17th Apr 2010
RESEARCH

Weekly Pivots

SCRIPTS R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

GOLD 17268.00 17149.00 16987.00 16706.00 16544.00 16263.00 16101.00

SILVER 28293.00 28124.00 27934.00 27575.00 27385.00 27026.00 26836.00

COPPER 360.80 362.53 356.37 351.93 345.77 341.33 335.17

CRUDE 3896.00 3926.67 3839.33 3782.67 3695.33 3638.67 3551.33

NATURAL GAS 202.20 203.30 192.20 182.20 176.47 161.10 150.00

LEAD 106.15 105.13 103.67 101.18 99.72 97.23 95.77

ZINC 109.65 110.13 107.77 105.88 103.52 101.63 99.27

NICKEL 1175.90 1175.83 1144.47 1113.03 1081.67 1050.23 1018.87

ALLUMINIUM 108.55 108.00 106.65 104.75 103.40 101.50 100.15

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 Weekly Commodity Report
12th April to 17th Apr 2010
RESEARCH

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