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Economic
Outlook
no. 1222
January 2016
www.eulerhermes.com
The 7 dwarfs
of global growth
Economic Research
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
Euler Hermes
Contents
Economic Research
Euler Hermes Group
Economic
Outlook
no. 1222
Macroeconomic
and Country Risk Outlook
EDITORIAL
12
OVERVIEW
13
13
13
14
15
15
15
15
16
16
17
17
10
REGIONAL OUTLOOK
10
10
20
22
SUBSIDIARIES
10
11
11
Euler Hermes
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlooke
EDITORIAL
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
Euler Hermes
OVERVIEW
The 7 dwarfs
of global growth
The global economy will grow at a modest pace
in 2016, but there is room for cautious optimism
THE MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH TEAM
+2.8%
real global GDP growth
in 2016
2014
2015
2016f
2017f
GLOBAL GDP
100
2.7
2.6
2.8
3.0
Advanced economies
62
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.1
Emerging economies
38
4.6
3,7
4.0
4.5
North America
25
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.4
United States
22
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.4
Canada
2.5
1.1
2.0
2.7
Latin America
1.2
-0.5
-0.4
1.7
0.2
-3.7
-2.4
1.2
24
1.3
1.6
1.7
1.8
Brazil
Western Europe
United Kingdom
2.9
2.4
2.1
1.9
Eurozone
18
0.9
1.5
1.7
1.8
Germany
1.6
1.5
1.8
1.8
France
0.2
1.1
1.4
1.6
Italy
-0.4
0.7
1.1
1.2
Spain
1.4
3.1
2.6
2.1
The Netherlands
1.0
1.9
2.0
2.1
Portugal
0.9
1.5
1.7
0.4
1.4
-0.1
1.5
2.2
Russia
0.6
-3.7
-0.3
1.0
Turkey
2.9
3.6
3.3
3.5
Poland
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
Asia
29
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
China
13
7.3
6.8
6.5
6.4
Japan
-0.1
0.8
1.3
0.8
India
7.3
7.4
7.6
7.8
Oceania
2.8
2.3
2.3
2.6
Australia
2.7
2.3
2.4
2.6
Middle East
2.6
2.8
3.4
4.0
Saudi Arabia
3.5
3.0
3.0
3.5
4.6
3.0
3.5
4.0
Africa
3.3
3.4
4.0
4.6
South Africa
1.5
1.5
2.0
2.0
Euler Hermes
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
+3.7%
growth in global trade
volume, but +0.9% growth
in value
More importantly, trade is undergoing significant structural adjustments. First, the integration in global value chains is abating.
For instance, the comparative advantages of
former low-cost countries in South East Asia,
and Eastern Europe are disappearing as they
mature (e.g., higher wages) or as the cost of
automated production decreases.
Second, changes in global demand drivers such
as the rise of the emerging markets consumer
induce a revamp in global trade flows. China is
the overarching protagonist in many of these
trends. Its internal rebalancing from industry
(investment) to services (consumption) translates into lower sales for primary and intermediate goods suppliers. This has rendered trade
growth less responsive to demand growth.
Going forward, we expect a modest acceleration
in the volume of global trade in 2016 (+3.7%)
and 2017 (+4.0%) (see Chart 1). Growing demand from high-income economies and above
all business investment, which is more trade-intensive than consumption, will combine with a
progressive pick-up in demand from China. This
should allow for a gradual acceleration in global
trade.
In value terms, a small upturn is likely in 2016
(+0.9% from -9% in 2015) before a larger increase
in 2017 (+7%) as downward pressures on key
currencies resume. Price in USD terms will likely
continue to contribute negatively in 2016. Key
major currencies (EUR, JPY, RMB, e.g.) will depreciate anew against the USD, reflecting diverging monetary policies.
5%
0%
Currency impact
-5%
-10%
Value
Value Excluding
currency impact
-15%
13
14
15
16f
17f
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
Yearly
8%
Size of the
bubble-exports
to China as % of GDP
20%
10%
5%
THA
6%
PHI
2015 was (again) a very tough year for emerging markets. The double whammy of a slowdown in China and expectations of a Fed rate
hike (and thus a stronger USD) translated into
plummeting commodity prices and currencies.
This was too much to bear for most countries.
Although these risk factors may bottom-out in
2016, some countries remain highly vulnerable.
As is usual with regard to emerging economies,
differentiation will be the name of the game.
In Chart 2, we assess the sensitivity of emerging
countries to the three risk factors via three key
metrics: (i) Current-account balance, which
measures a country's vulnerability to capital
flows associated with the Fed rate hike; (ii) Exports to China as a share of GDP; (iii) Primary exports as a share of GDP.
Additionally, we use the depreciation of the currency since mid-2014 as a proxy for all other
factors not captured by these three metrics. For
instance, despite its current-account surplus,
Russia has experienced a -65% fall in the Rouble,
owing to a sharp increase in political risk.
In September, we already identified the BRuNTS
(Brazil, Russia, Nigeria, Turkey and South Africa)
as the most vulnerable countries. These countries
have seen a significant deterioration in their economic prospects and have little room to support
growth in the short run. Both external trade and
domestic demand are weak; policy support is constrained by strong macroeconomic imbalances
(either twin deficits or strong pressures on the
currency). In this regard, they will remain under
the volatility spotlight in 2016. Likewise, Colombia,
and to a lesser extent, Malaysia, Indonesia, Chile
and Peru could also face difficult times.
4%
HUN
RUS
MAL
2%
0%
SAU
HK
PAK
0% IND 2%
POL
-2%
VIE
CZE
4%
TUR
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
50%
20%
ROM
ARG
EGY
-4%
(49.5%, 1.5%)
Euler Hermes
INDO
MEX
CHL
UKR
NIG
ECU
PER
MOR
BRA
VEN
(28.3%, -4%)
SAF
-6%
COL
-8%
Sources: IMF, Chelem, IHS, Euler Hermes
-15%
forecasted fall in oil prices
compared to 2015
Euler Hermes
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
20%
Domesticalization =
consumption growth >
import growth
15%
IND
CHI
INDO
MAL
POL
USA
S.KOR
CHL
10%
COL
UK
5%
EUR
TUR
GER
0%
JAP
BRA
-5%
RUS
-10%
-15%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-20%
20%
Image courtesy of Stefan Schubert, Xubaet, Flickr.com under creative commons license 2.0
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
Euler Hermes
14,000
Total (rhs)
25,000
+6% yoy
growth
Fed
ECB
12,000
Bank of Japan
20,000
EM reserves
10,000
15,000
8,000
6,000
10,000
4,000
5,000
2,000
0
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
+6%
growth in global
liquidity in 2016
In the Eurozone, providing shelter and accommodations to refugees and an enhanced focus on
fighting terrorism entail loosening the purse
strings.
Euler Hermes
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
120
Brazil
Russia
Saudi Arabia
China (rhs)
100
350
India
Turkey
South Africa
300
80
250
60
200
40
150
20
100
50
0
-20
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
rently falling at a -10% y/y pace in Europe. Although the decline should moderate in 2016,
we do not expect a quick recovery.
However, we do expect a slight pick-up in housing activity in the Eurozone and in the US. It
should be supported by improving employment
and income prospects, credit conditions and a
lack of attractive alternative investment. The rebound in the US will be quicker though because
the deleveraging of the household sector is far
more advanced than in Europe.
Meanwhile, we see the beginning of an investment cycle for European companies. At +5.4%
y/y, real business investment growth in Europe
is finally outpacing the US, where it is driven
down by investment in structures (-1.2% y/y)
in the exploration & production sector.
The rationale behind this rebound is fourfold: a
rise in turnovers; an improvement in profitability; the real cost of capital would become even
lower; and massive war chests on the balance
sheets of companies.
Cash might also pursue different assets altogether.
Indeed, given the cheapness of emerging markets' assets and undeniable long-run potential,
foreign direct investments (FDI) in selected countries are set to increase. As of Q2-2015, and despite experiencing its worse recession of the past
30 years, yearly FDI flows in Brazil are still higher
than in 2012-2013 (see Chart 5).
40%
forecasts
30%
20%
10%
1%
0%
North America
Asia-Pacific
-5%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Western Europe
Latin America
05
06
07
08 09 10
11
12
13 14 15f 16f
Global Insolvency
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
Euler Hermes
(%)
-20%
-15%
CHI
-10%
ARG
COL
0%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Exports % change, y/y
-25%
(%)
(y/y % growth)
10%
60%
investment
profits
75%
8%
30%
50%
6%
25%
0%
0%
4%
-25%
2%
-30%
-50%
shaded areas are recessions
-75%
1991
1996
2001
2006
10
2011
0
2016
-5%
0%
MEX
BRA
VEN
-30%
-5%
PER
ECU
-25%
100%
-30%
Currency depreciation
Size of the bubble:
elasticity of exports to vs USD since the
beginning of 2015
a REER depreciation
>30%
30%
15% -30%
20%
<15%
10%
Peg to USD
-60%
1970
1985
2000
2015
-2.4%
GDP in Brazil, making 2016
the 2nd consecutive year
of recession
Currency depreciation does not have a visible
positive impact on the competitiveness of exports, which will underperform in real terms
again in 2016.
With the exception of Mexico, regional exports
are strongly concentrated in primary goods.
Thus export performance relies more on demand growth than on price-competitiveness
(see Chart 9).
We expect regional GDP growth to remain flat in
2016, following a -0.4% contraction in 2015. Activity in Mexico (+2.8% in 2016) will continue to
be driven by the US economic cycle. But Chile
(+2%), Colombia (+2.7%) and Peru (+2.8%) will
experience another year of below-trend growth.
Economic recession is expected in Ecuador (-1.1%)
and Venezuela (-6.6%) as activity is extremely
dependent on oil revenues and fiscal spending.
With very restricted access to capital markets,
both countries are struggling to find external financing.
Positive signals are at last coming from Argentina.
The newly-elected President Mauricio Macri
vowed to lift trade and capital controls, consolidate
public finances, and build a better framework for
inflation management. These adjustments will be
painful in the short-term, leading to a recession
in 2016 (-1.5%). However, they will help attract
foreign investment back to the country.
Euler Hermes
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
Image Allianz
30%
Bolivia
Highly
dependent
25%
Share of Brazil in exports
Argentina
20%
Uruguay
15%
Barely
dependent
10%
Chile
5%
Peru
Colombia
Mexico
0%
0%
LatAm
Panama
2%
4%
6%
Sources: National source, UNCTAD, Banco Central do Brasil, Chelem, IMF-IFS, IHS, Euler Hermes calculations
15%
38%
10%
37%
5%
36%
0%
35%
-5%
34%
-10%
33%
-15%
32%
-20%
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
31%
8%
11
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
The Eurozone is
clawing its way
back into growth
(4Q, % of GVA)
Spain
Italy
France
Germany
50%
Euler Hermes
45%
40%
Eurozone average
35%
Eurozone: business
investment is back
30%
25%
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
120
Spain
Italy
France
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
60
Expansion
55
50
45
Contraction
40
11
12
13
12
14
15
Italy
France
Spain
Germany
90
85
80
75
70
65
NB: The lines indicate the 2000-15 average by country
60
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sources: IHS, European Commission, Euler Hermes
Euler Hermes
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
Spain
Germany
Italy
France
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
13
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
14
Euler Hermes
Economic
recovery in Spain
is beating
expectations
+2.6%
GDP growth in Spain in 2016.
The countrys economy is
slowing down but remains
among the fastest-growing
in the Eurozone
Euler Hermes
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
140
130
March 2014:
Crimean
annexation
March-July 2014:
Phases 1&2&3 sanctions
against Russia
August 2014:
Russian
counter-sanctions
120
20
30
110
100
40
90
80
70
Partial recovery
in March-May
2015
October 2014:
Saudi Increases
oil production
60
Renewed
currency
weakness
since July
2015
50
50
60
40
30
Exchange
rate crisis
20
10
0
01-14
70
USD:RUB (RHS)
80
04-14
07-14
10-14
01-15
04-15
07-15
10-15
21%
Latvia
15%
Estonia
10%
CEE-EU-11
4%
Poland
4%
Slovenia
4%
Romania
3%
Czech Republic
3%
Croatia
3%
Hungary
2%
Bulgaria
2%
Slovakia
2%
EU-28
2%
15
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
16
Euler Hermes
Chart 19 Mirror, mirror on the wall. Who is the most dependent of all?
>20%
>30%
>40%
Ethiopia
Israel
Jordan
Kenya
Lebanon
Morocco
South Africa
Tanzania
Cte d'Ivoire
Senegal
Togo
Central
African
Republic
Sierra Leone
>90%
>70%
Algeria
Angola
Chad
Equatorial
Guinea
Iraq
Kuwait
Nigeria
Qatar
Oil Importers:
oil imports as % of total imports
>50%
Cameroon
Congo, DR
UAE
Congo,
Republic
Gabon
Iran
Oman
Saudi Arabia
10
2015
2016
China
India
Asia
ASEAN-5*
Japan
Euler Hermes
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
+4.8%
Asias GDP growth will
remain below long -term
average in 2016
Image Fotolia_19365853
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
01-15
03-15
05-15
07-15
09-15
11-15
15
10
-5
-1
-10
-2
-15
01-15
03-15
05-15
07-15
09-15
11-15
-3
17
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
Euler Hermes
Country Risk
Outlook
Q4 2015 UPDATE
IRELAND
BB2
A1
CYPRUS
B4
B3
CTE DIVOIRE
D3
C3
HONDURAS
C3
l6
C2
k4
countries
upgraded
ratings
18
countries
downgraded
ratings
BRUNEI
BB1
BB2
CHILE
A1
A2
COLOMBIA
BB1
BB2
Euler Hermes
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
FINLAND
NORWAY
SWEDEN ESTONIA
UNITED
KINGDOM
DENMARK
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
RUSSIA
IRELAND
BELARUS
NETHERLANDS
BELGIUM
POLAND
GERMANY
CZECH
REPUBLIC
LUX.
SWITZERLAND
FRANCE
ITALY
ANDORRA
UKRAINE
SLOVAKIA
K A Z A K H S T A N
MOLDOVA
AUSTRIA HUNGARY
SLOVENIA
CROATIA
MONGOLIA
ROMANIA
BOSNIAHERZEGOVINA SERBIA
BULGARIA
MONTENEGRO
ALBANIA MACEDONIA
PORTUGAL
KYRGYZSTAN
UZBEKISTAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
NORTH
KOREA
AZERBAIJAN
TURKMENISTAN
TURKEY
SPAIN
TADJIKISTAN
GREECE
MALTA
CYPRUS
LEBANON
ISRAEL
TUNISIA
MOROCCO
AFGHANISTAN
I R A N
IRAQ
JORDAN
KUWET
ALGERIA
L I B Y A
SAUDI
ARABIA
UAE
NEPAL
PAKISTAN
BAHRAIN
QATAR
EGYPT
BHUTAN
INDIA
BANGLADESH
OMAN
MYANMAR
MAURITANIA
SUDAN
NIGER
SENEGAL
REPUBLIC OF
THE PHILIPPINES
NIGERIA
CAMEROON
SOUTH
SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
SRI LANKA
DEMOCRATIC
REPUBLIC
OFCONGO
TANZANIA
ZIMBABWE
NAMIBIA
AM
ZAMBIA
OZ
BOTSWANA
REPUBLIC
OF NAURU
SOLOMON
ISLANDS
STATE
OF TUVALU
SAMOA
REPUBLIC
OF VANUATU
MAURITIUS
REUNION
ISLAND
AUSTRALIA
SWAZILAND
SOUTH
AFRICA
PAPUA
NEW GUINEA
I N D O N E S I A
EAST TIMOR
COMOROS
MALAW
ANGOLA
SINGAPORE
SEYCHELLES
MARSHALL
ISLANDS
PALAU
MALAYSIA
REPUBLIC
OF UGANDA KENYA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
MALDIVES
GABON
MICRONESIA
BRUNEI
SOMALIA
REPUBLIC
OFCONGO
MADAG
ASCAR
ECUATORIAL
GUINEA
SAO TOME & P.
CENTRAL
AFRICAN
REPUBLIC
LIBERIA
CAMBODIA
DJIBOUTI
BENIN
TOGO
COTE
GHANA
DIVOIRE
MACAO
THAILAND
YEMEN
BURKINA
FASO
B IQU
GUINEA
SIERRA
LEONE
HONG KONG
ERITREA
CHAD
GAMBIA
GUINEA BISSAU
TAIWAN
VIETNAM
LAOPDR
MALI
CAPE
VERDE
JAPAN
SOUTH
KOREA
CHINA
SYRIA
REPUBLIC
OF FIJI
NEW
CALEDONIA
TONGA
FRENCH
POLYNESIA
LESOTHO
NEW
ZEALAND
ECUADOR
C3
C4
OMAN
BB1
BB2
SOUTH AFRICA
BB1
BB2
Medium term
risk:
the scale comprises 6 levels :
AA represents the lowest risk,
D the highest.
Short term
risk :
the scale comprises 4 levels :
1 represents the lowest risk,
4 the highest.
19
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
Economic Research
Euler Hermes Group
Economic Outlook
and other
publications
Euler Hermes
Economic
Outlook
no. 1216
Economic
Outlook
no. 1217-1218
March-April 2015
May-June 2015
www.eulerhermes.com
www.eulerhermes.com
Economic
Outlook
no.1219
Economic
Outlook
no. 1220-1221
July-August 2015
September-October 2015
Special Report
www.eulerhermes.com
www.eulerhermes.com
Economic Research
Economic Research
Economic Research
Already issued:
no. 1204
no. 1205-1206
no. 1207
no. 1208-1209
no. 1210
Special Report
The global automotive market: Back on four wheels
no. 1211-1212
no. 1213
Special Report
International debt collection:The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
no. 1214
no. 1215
Special Report
Global trade: Whats cooking? Introducing twelve countries
recipes for boosting exports
no. 1216
no. 1217-1218
no. 1219
Special Report
Auto market - a live wire
no. 1220-1221
no. 1222
To come:
no. 1223
20
Economic Research
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The
Economic
Talk
https://www.youtube.com/user/EulerHermesGroup/
Economic
Insight
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
Weekly
Export Risk
Outlook
http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/economic-publications/Pages/Weekly-Export-Risk-Outlook.aspx
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Report
http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/economicpublications/Pages/economic-insights.aspx
Expo Brexit me if you can: Companies to suffer the most >2015-11-30
Trans-Pacic Partnership: a TIPPing point for global trade? >2015-11-24
Expo Milano 2015: The end or the beginning? >2015-10-20
United States: Trying to feel the export pulse >2015-10-12
Germany and the Netherlands: Rivals on the football eld, partners in the
export game? >2015-09-23
Iran: Back in the game? >2015-09-15
China: Great Wall, Great Mall, Great Fall? Not really >2015-09-09
The Fed quake: Who will bear the brunts? >2015-08-06
Cuba : Viva la (economic) Revolution >2015-08-01
Industry
Report
http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/countryrisks/Pages/country-reports-risk-map.aspx
Bolivia
Colombia
Cote dIvoire
Cyprus
Ecuador
El Salvador
Estonia
Ethiopia
Gabon
Guatemala
Global
Sector
Report
Honduras
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Mali
Malta
Mozambique
Namibia
Oman
Panama
Philippines
South Africa
Thailand
Trinidad Tobago
Uganda
United States
Vietnam
http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/sector-risks
http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/sector-risks
Aeronautics
Agrifood
Automotive
Chemicals
Construction
Energy
Household Equipment
ICT
Machinery
Metal
Paper
Pharmaceuticals
Retail
Textile
Transportation
21
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
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>Hungary
Euler Hermes Europe SA
Magyarrorszagi Fioktelepe
186 00 Prague 8
Bandra (East)
>Austria
Acredia Versicherung AG
Himmelpfortgasse 29
>Denmark
Euler Hermes Danmark, lial of
Euler Hermes Europe S.A. Belgien
1010 Vienna
Amerika Plads 19
>Bahrain
Please contact United Arab Emirates
2100 Copenhagen O
>Estonia
Please contact Finland
Jakarta 12190
>Finland
Euler Hermes SA
Suomen sivuliike
>Ireland
Euler Hermes Ireland
Allianz House
Elm Park
Mannerheimintie 105
Merrion Road
00280 Helsinki
Dublin 4
>Belgium
Euler Hermes Europe SA (NV)
>France
Euler Hermes France SA
Euler Hermes Collection
Euler Hermes World Agency
>Israel
ICIC
68010 Tel Aviv
1000 Bruxelles
Phone: +32 2 289 3111
>Brazil
Euler Hermes Seguros de Crdito SA
Jardim Paulista
So Paulo / SP 01311-300
Phone: +55 11 3065 2260
2, Shenkar Street
>Italy
Euler Hermes Europe SA
Rappresentanza generale per lItalia
>Germany
Euler Hermes Deutschland
Niederlassung der Euler Hermes SA
00139 Rome
Friedensallee 254
>Bulgaria
Euler Hermes Bulgaria
22763 Hamburg
2, Pozitano sq.
>Japan
Euler Hermes Europe SA, Japan Branch
Soa, 1000
Gaastrae 27
22761 Hamburg
Chuo-Ku
>Canada
Euler Hermes North America Insurance
Company
Tokyo 104-0094
Zeppelinstr. 48
Suite 2810
14471 Postdam
22763 Hamburg
>Greece
Euler Hermes Hellas Credit Insurance SA
>China
Euler Hermes Consulting (Shanghai) Co.,
Ltd.
>Hong Kong
Euler Hermes Hong Kong Services Ltd
>Kuwait
Please contact United Arab Emirates
>Latvia
Please contact Finland
Friedensallee 254
Santiago
22
>Indonesia
PT Asuransi Allianz Utama Indonesia
1020 Vienna
Phone: +43 1 90 22714000
>Lithuania
Please contact Finland
Euler Hermes
Economic Outlook no.1222 | January 2016 | Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook
>Malaysia
Euler Hermes Singapore Services Pte Ltd.,
Malaysia Branch
>Philippines
Please contact Singapore
>South Korea
Euler Hermes Hong Kong Services Ltd
Korea Liaison Ofce
>Poland
Towarzystwo Ubezpiecze
Euler Hermes SA
Soul 110-052
ul. Domaniewska 50 B
>Mexico
Solunion
>Spain
Solunion
Torre Polanco
>Portugal
COSEC Companhia de Seguro de
Crditos, S.A.
Portal C, 3a planta
Dubai
Avenida da Repblica, n 58
28020 Madrid
Tel: +97142116000
Phone: +52 55 52 01 79 00
1069-057 Lisbon
Phone:+34 91 581 34 00
02-672 Warsaw
>Morocco
Euler Hermes Acmar
37, bd Abdelatiff Ben Kaddour
>Qatar
Please contact United Arab Emirates
20 050 Casablanca
Phone: +212 5 22 79 03 30
>The Netherlands
Euler Hermes Nederland
>Sri Lanka
Please contact Singapore
>United States
Euler Hermes North America
Insurance Company
101 34 Stockholm
Phone: +46 8 555 136 00
011264 Bucarest
5201CZs-Hertogenbosch
>Switzerland
Euler Hermes SA
Zweigniederlassung Wallisellen
>Russia
Euler Hermes Credit Management OOO
Postfach
Moscow, 119049
8304 Wallisellen
1100 AL Amsterdam
Richtiplatz 1
>Uruguay
Please contact Argentina
>Vietnam
Please contact Singapore
>Saudi Arabia
Please contact United Arab Emirates
Auckland 1010
>Singapore
Euler Hermes Singapore Services Pte Ltd
12 Marina View
>Taiwan
Please contact Hong Kong
>Thailand
Allianz C.P. General Insurance Co., Ltd
Singapore 018961
30 th Floor
Silom Road.
Bangrak, Bangkok 10500
Holbergsgate 21
0130 Oslo
>Slovakia
Euler Hermes Europe SA, poboka
poistovne z ineho clenskeho statu
1 Canada Square
Dbelnsgatan 24
Box 729
Sector 1
>Norway
Euler Hermes Norge
>United Kingdom
Euler Hermes UK
>Sweden
Euler Hermes Sverige lial
Pettelaarpark 20
>New Zealand
Euler Hermes New Zealand Ltd
>Romania
Euler Hermes Europe SA Bruxelles
Sucursala Bucuresti
>Turkey
Euler Hermes Sigorta A.S.
>Tunisia
Please contact Italy
82109 Bratislava
>Oman
Please contact United Arab Emirates
>Panama
Please contact Solunion Mexico
>South Africa
Euler Hermes South Africa
The Firs
32A Cradock Avenure, Rosebank 2196
>Per
Please contact Solunion Colombia
Phone:+27 10 59348 01
23
This document reflects the opinion of the Economic Research Department of Euler Hermes Group.
The information, analyses and forecasts contained herein are based on the Department's current
hypotheses and viewpoints and are of a prospective nature. In this regard, the Economic Research
Department of Euler Hermes Group has no responsibility for the consequences hereof and no
liability. Moreover, these analyses are subject to modification at any time.
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