April 07, 2010

Economics Group
MONTHLY OUTLOOK
U.S. Overview
The Recovery Begins to Take Shape
Nonfarm employment finally moved back into positive territory
in a convincing manner in March, further bolstering the view
that a sustainable recovery has taken hold. Nonfarm payrolls
increased by 162,000 jobs and manufacturing employment
rose for the third straight month. The March employment
report provides some key insights into how the economic
recovery will likely unfold. Manufacturing is playing a larger
role, as firms begin to rebuild inventories following a unusually
long two-year drawdown. Growth in the service sector is
somewhat less robust but is broadening and gaining
momentum. Construction will continue to lag, however, as
past overbuilding weighs on rents and valuations, making it
difficult for buyers and investors to secure funding.
The return of job growth is essential to generate a self-
reinforcing recovery. Economic growth will increasingly be
driven by the underlying demand and less so by fiscal and
monetary stimulus. The Federal Reserve has already begun to
peel away the temporary stimulus programs put in place to
combat the financial crisis and is expected to boost the federal
funds rate late this year. Fiscal stimulus is also beginning to
wind down and will add less to quarterly growth going forward.
Fortunately, private demand has begun to revive. The bounce
back in the stock market and apparent stability in home prices
have provided a solid boost to consumer outlays during the first
few months of 2010. Businesses have also been able to tap the
credit markets to strengthen their balance sheets.
International Overview
Global Recovery Remains Intact
The global economic recovery that started in mid-2009 has
remained intact thus far this year. Recovery is strongest in Asia
at present with China leading the pack. However, other Asian
countries are posting impressive growth rates as well. Recent
growth in domestic demand suggests that the recoveries in the
advanced economies of Japan and South Korea are developing
into self-sustaining economic expansions. Recovery also
appears to be taking hold in Latin America. Brazil registered
strong growth in the second half of last year, and recent data on
industrial production suggest that GDP continued to expand at
a solid pace in the first quarter.
Economic growth has returned to Western Europe as well, but
the region has lacked the vigor that other regions have
exhibited since the middle of last year. We forecast that Europe
will continue to expand, albeit at a subdued pace, for the
remainder of the year. Whereas the probability of a double-dip
recession in Asia is very low, the risk of a renewed downturn in
Europe, although not our official forecast, is not insignificant.
The biggest risk we foresee to economic growth in the
euro-zone this year is related to the government debt crisis that
has appeared recently, most visibly in Greece. Specifically, the
fiscal consolidation that is happening already and that will
continue for the foreseeable future will exert a drag on
economic growth in the euro area. With growth already slow, it
would not take much fiscal tightening to push the region back
into a mild recession.

Real GDP OECD Industrial Production

Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change Index, 2005=100
10.0% 10.0% 110 110
GDPR - CAGR: Q4 @ 5.6%
8.0% GDPR - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q4 @ 0.1% 8.0%

6.0% 6.0%
100 100
Forecast
4.0% 4.0%

2.0% 2.0%
90 90
0.0% 0.0%

-2.0% -2.0%

80 80
-4.0% -4.0%

-6.0% -6.0%
OECD Industrial Production: Dec @ 95.6
-8.0% -8.0% 70 70
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Source: OECD, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

This report is available on wellsfargo.com/research and on Bloomberg WFEC

Economics Group U.S. Outlook Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

An Underwater V-Shaped Recovery
The return of nonfarm employment growth and the promise of
even more robust growth in April and May have raised hopes
that a self-sustaining recovery has finally taken hold. President
Obama himself stated the worst of the economic storm has
passed, a sentiment we agree with. But before we break out the
victory banner and toast the onset of a V-shaped recovery we
should carefully survey the damage wrought by the Great
Recession. Nonfarm employment has a long way to go before it
recaptures the 8.4 million jobs lost during this recession. The
end of job losses, however, has sent the year-to-year change in
employment soaring upward, creating what looks like a
V-shaped recovery. Unfortunately, most of the V is below the
water line, firmly in negative territory.
The same V-shaped recovery is also evident in many other
economic series, including housing starts, industrial
production, retail sales and real GDP. Initially, the upside of
the V merely reflects less negative economic news. We fully
expect the uptrend to extend into positive territory. The rate of
ascent, however, will fade once the effects of monetary and
fiscal stimulus begin to diminish this spring and summer.
Another factor influencing the shape of the economic recovery
is the hiring for the decennial Census. The Census Bureau
expects to hire nearly 1 million workers for brief stints in the
first half of this year. The greater the mail-in response rate, the
fewer workers that will need to be hired. So far, the response
rate appears to be on par with the 2000 Census, which means
we should see a modest boost to payrolls over the next two
months, followed by declines in June and July. As most of
these jobs are part-time, the impact on income growth should
be fairly minimal. Census hiring has also likely helped reduce
the unemployment rate and should contribute to the expected
back up in the jobless rate later this year. One of the biggest
surprises of 2010 has been the resurgence in consumer
spending. Holiday retail sales came in better than expected
and spending has held up well during the first quarter. Real
personal consumption expenditures are expected to rise at a
2.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter, with solid gains in
virtually all categories. Discretionary spending has also made a
comeback, thanks in part to the rebound in the stock market
and apparent stability in home prices. Wages and salaries have
also improved, with our income proxy rising at a 2.3 percent
annual rate during the first quarter.
Consumer spending is expected to cool during the second
quarter. This year’s unusually cold winter weather pushed up
utility consumption. Tax refunds also bolstered spending
earlier this year and are unlikely to provide as much lift this
spring. Moreover, the burst of spending during the first
quarter outpaced disposable income, cutting the saving rate
back to just 3.3 percent. We expect spending to more closely
track after-tax income going forward, allowing for a gradual
recovery in the saving rate toward 4.5 percent by the end of
2011.
One of the biggest risks for 2010 is that oil prices will spike
back above $100 a barrel, sending gasoline back up toward $4
a gallon. This is not our forecast, but we do see oil prices rising
over the forecast period and gasoline prices appear destined to
rise about $3 a gallon this summer. Consumers and the
broader economy should be able to withstand $3 a gallon
gasoline but $3.50 a gallon would be troublesome. Food prices
will likely rise along with gasoline, leaving consumers with
fewer discretionary dollars.
Another risk for the recovery is higher interest rates. The yield
on the 10-year Treasury note briefly rose above 4.00 percent in
early April and we expect it to end the second quarter at
around 4.20 percent. The rise in Treasury yields means
mortgage rates will likely reach 6 percent this spring, further
hampering the already sluggish recovery in housing.

Nonfarm Employment Growth Retail Sales Ex. Auto & Gas Stations vs. Income
Yr/Yr Percent Change vs 3-Month Percent Change, Annual Rate 3-Month Moving Average
5% 5% 15% 15%
Stock Market Tax Cut 2 Housing Refi
4% 4% 12%
Bubble Boom
12%
Tax
3% 3% Tax Cut 1
Rebates
9% 9%
2% 2%
6% 6%
1% 1%

0% 0% 3% 3%

-1% -1% 0% 0%

-2% -2% -3% -3%

-3% -3%
-6% -6%
-4% -4%
-9% -9%
-5% -5%
3-Month Annual Rate: Mar @ 0.5% -12% Disposable Personal Income, Yr/Yr % Change: Feb @ 2.6% -12%
-6% -6%
Year/Year Change: Mar @ -1.8% Retail Sales, ex. Autos & Gas, 3-Month Annual Rate: Feb @ 4.5%
-7% -7% -15% -15%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

2
Economics Group U.S. Economic Forecast Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast

Actual Forecast Actual Forecast

2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Real Gross Domestic Product (a) -0.7 1.5 -2.7 -5.4 -6.4 -0.7 2.2 5.6 3.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.1 0.4 -2.4 3.0 2.5
Personal Consumption -0.6 0.1 -3.5 -3.1 0.6 -0.9 2.8 1.6 2.8 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.6 -0.2 -0.6 1.9 2.0
Business Fixed Investment 1.9 1.4 -6.1 -19.4 -39.2 -9.6 -5.9 5.3 1.5 1.5 4.2 5.8 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.2 6.2 1.6 -17.8 1.1 6.8
Equipment and Software -0.5 -5.0 -9.4 -25.9 -36.4 -4.9 1.5 19.0 5.7 6.5 7.6 9.2 10.3 9.7 9.6 9.3 2.6 -2.6 -16.6 7.4 9.3
St ructures 6.8 14.5 -0.1 -7.2 -43.6 -17.3 -18.4 -18.1 -15.0 -11.0 -5.0 -3.5 1.0 3.0 4.5 5.0 14.9 10.3 -19.8 -13.7 -0.4
Residential Construction -28.2 -15.8 -15.9 -23.2 -38.2 -23.2 18.9 3.7 -8.5 7.5 5.0 5.5 3.5 10.0 8.0 3.0 -18.5 -22.9 -20.5 1.3 6.0
Government Purchases 2.6 3.6 4.8 1.2 -2.6 6.7 2.7 -1.3 2.4 1.1 2.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.7 3.1 1.8 1.6 1.2

Net Exports -550.9 -476.0 -479.2 -470.9 -386.5 -330.4 -357.4 -348.0 -349.5 -340.1 -343.7 -354.1 -360.2 -365.6 -365.9 -358.0 -647.7 -494.3 -355.6 -346.8 -362.4
Pc t. Point Contribution to GDP 0.4 2.4 -0.1 0.5 2.6 1.7 -0.8 0.3 0.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.1 -0.1
Inventory Change 0.6 -37.1 -29.7 -37.4 -113.9 -160.2 -139.2 -19.7 14.0 25.5 30.0 34.5 40.5 47.5 50.0 50.0 19.5 -25.9 -108.3 26.0 47.0
Pc t. Point Contribution to GDP -0.2 -1.3 0.3 -0.6 -2.4 -1.4 0.7 3.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 1.0 0.2

Nominal GDP 1.0 3.5 1.4 -5.4 -4.6 -0.8 2.6 6.1 4.9 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.9 4.4 4.7 4.7 5.1 2.6 -1.3 4.0 4.0
Real F inal Sales -0.5 2.7 -2.9 -4.7 -4.1 0.7 1.5 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.5 0.8 -1.7 1.8 2.3
Retail Sales (b) 2.6 2.4 0.3 -8.4 -9.1 -9.5 -6.7 2.0 4.2 4.9 4.3 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.1 3.3 -0.8 -6.0 4.3 4.9

Inflat ion Indicators (b)

"Core" PCE Deflator 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.4 1.5 1.2 1.6
Consumer Price Index 4.2 4.3 5.3 1.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.6 1.5 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.8 -0.3 2.3 2.4
"Core" Consumer Price Index 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.0 1.4
Producer Price Index 7.2 7.7 9.4 1.4 -2.2 -4.1 -5.2 1.6 5.1 5.2 4.8 3.7 2.3 2.9 4.1 4.5 3.9 6.4 -2.5 4.7 3.5
Employment Cost Index 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 3.4 3.0 1.7 1.2 1.7

Real Disposable Income (a) -2.4 9.8 -8.5 3.4 0.2 6.2 -3.6 1.0 -0.2 4.4 3.0 2.6 -0.9 3.3 2.7 3.2 2.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.1
Nominal Personal Income (b) 3.7 4.0 2.9 1.1 -1.6 -2.0 -2.3 -1.1 2.0 1.9 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.3 5.6 2.9 -1.7 2.7 4.1
Industrial Production (a) 0.2 -4.6 -9.0 -13.0 -19.0 -10.4 6.4 6.6 6.5 3.4 3.4 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.0 1.5 -2.2 -9.7 4.4 5.7
Capac ity Utilization 80.1 78.9 76.9 74.2 70.4 68.7 70.0 71.3 72.4 72.5 73.0 74.3 75.3 76.2 76.9 77.4 80.6 77.6 70.1 73.0 76.4
Corporate Profits Before Taxes (b) -4.9 -12.0 -5.4 -25.1 -19.0 -12.6 -6.6 30.6 22.0 16.0 10.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 -4.1 -11.8 -3.8 13.7 8.0
Corporate Profits After Taxes 6.6 -3.7 4.8 -15.8 -19.7 -15.3 -9.7 22.8 32.0 20.0 15.0 9.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.5 -4.0 -2.0 -6.9 18.4 8.4

Federal Budget Balance (c) -205.9 26.9 -168.9 -332.5 -448.9 -304.9 -329.4 -388.1 -508.4 -268.0 -290.5 -331.5 -507.5 -211.0 -272.5 -315.0 -161.5 -454.8 -1415.7 -1455.0 -1322.5
Current Account Balance (d) -179.3 -187.7 -184.2 -154.9 -104.2 -97.7 -102.3 -115.6 -130.0 -135.0 -140.0 -145.0 -145.0 -150.0 -150.0 -150.0 -726.6 -706.1 -419.9 -550.0 -595.0
Trade Weighted Dollar Index (e) 70.3 71.0 76.1 79.4 83.2 77.7 74.3 74.8 76.1 75.5 77.5 79.4 81.1 82.5 83.2 83.6 73.3 79.4 74.8 79.4 83.6

Nonfarm Payroll Change (f) -31 -191 -334 -652 -753 -478 -260 -90 54 118 0 127 130 135 150 165 90 -302 -395 75 145
Unemployment Rate 5.0 5.3 6.0 7.0 8.2 9.3 9.6 10.0 9.7 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 4.6 5.8 9.3 9.9 9.5
Housing Starts (g) 1.06 1.02 0.87 0.66 0.53 0.54 0.59 0.56 0.60 0.64 0.67 0.71 0.73 0.79 0.86 0.88 1.34 0.90 0.55 0.65 0.82
Light Vehicle Sales (h) 15.2 14.1 12.9 10.5 9.5 9.6 11.5 10.8 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 16.1 13.2 10.3 11.1 12.1
Crude Oil - WTI - Front Contract (i) 97.90 123.98 117.98 58.74 43.08 59.62 68.30 76.19 78.72 88.00 85.00 85.00 85.00 87.00 90.00 90.00 72.31 99.65 61.80 84.18 88.00

Quarter-End Interest Rates

Federal Funds Target Rate 2.25 2.00 2.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 1.25 2.00 2.75 3.25 4.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 3.25
3 Month LIBOR 2.69 2.78 4.05 1.43 1.19 0.60 0.29 0.25 0.29 0.35 0.55 0.80 1.50 2.35 3.10 3.60 4.70 1.43 0.25 0.80 3.60
Prime Rate 5.25 5.00 5.00 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.50 4.25 5.00 5.75 6.25 7.25 3.25 3.25 3.50 6.25
Conventional Mortgage Rate 5.97 6.32 6.04 5.33 5.00 5.42 5.06 4.93 4.97 6.10 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.10 6.20 6.30 6.10 5.33 4.93 6.00 6.30
3 Month Bill 1.38 1.90 0.92 0.11 0.21 0.19 0.14 0.06 0.16 0.20 0.30 0.55 1.25 2.10 2.85 3.35 3.36 0.11 0.06 0.55 3.35
2 Y ear Note 1.62 2.63 2.00 0.76 0.81 1.11 0.95 1.14 1.02 1.30 1.50 1.85 2.10 2.70 3.30 3.80 3.05 0.76 1.14 1.85 3.80
5 Y ear Note 2.46 3.34 2.98 1.55 1.67 2.54 2.31 2.69 2.55 2.90 3.00 3.10 3.20 3.50 3.80 4.10 3.45 1.55 2.69 3.10 4.10
10 Y ear Note 3.45 3.99 3.85 2.25 2.71 3.53 3.31 3.85 3.84 4.20 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.50 4.60 4.70 4.04 2.25 3.85 4.30 4.70
30 Y ear Bond 4.30 4.53 4.31 2.69 3.56 4.32 4.03 4.63 4.72 5.00 5.00 5.10 5.20 5.30 5.40 5.50 4.45 2.69 4.63 5.10 5.50
Foreca st as of: A pril 7, 2010
Notes: (a) C ompound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter (f) Average Monthly C hange
(b) Year-over-Year Percentage C hange (g) Millions of Units
(c) Quarterly Sum - Billions USD; Annual Data Represents Fiscal Yr. (h) Quarterly Data - Average Monthly SAAR; Annual Data - Actual Total Vehicles Sold
(d) Quarterly Sum - Billions USD (i) Quarterly Average of Daily C lose
(e) Federal Reserve Major C urrency Index, 1973=100 - Quarter End

Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

3
Economics Group International Outlook Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Global Upturn Has Continued So Far This Year
As measured by industrial production (IP) in 30 of the world’s
most advanced economies that comprise the Organisation for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) a global
upturn has been in place since the spring of last year (see chart
on the front page). Although IP in the OECD countries rose
6 percent between April and December, it was still down
12 percent from its peak in early 2008. In other words, the
global economy is still in a hole, but at least it is beginning to
climb out of that hole.
Recent monthly data suggest that the depth of the hole became
shallower in the first quarter. For example, IP in both Japan
and Korea, the two Asian countries that are members of the
OECD, rose about 4 percent in the first two months of the first
quarter relative to the last quarter of 2009. Although exports to
China have helped to propel growth in other Asian countries,
there is more to the current upturns in Korea and Japan than
simply strong Chinese economic growth. For example, the
value of Japanese retail sales was up 2.3 percent on a
seasonally adjusted basis in the first two months of the first
quarter relative to the fourth quarter. In Korea, real consumer
spending grew 0.5 percent in the first two months of 2010.
Strong real GDP growth in China may have helped to jumpstart
economic growth in other Asian countries, but self-sustaining
expansions based on strengthening domestic demand appear
to be taking hold across Asia.
Speaking of China, the Chinese economy expanded nearly 11
percent on a year-ago basis in the fourth quarter of 2009, and
recent economic data suggest that economic growth remained
robust in the first quarter (bottom chart). Industrial production
in the first two month of the year was up more than 20 percent
relative to the same period in 2009, which admittedly is a low
base, and the manufacturing PMI remained firmly in
expansion territory in March. Although economic policy in
China is slowly becoming less accommodative, we look for
Chinese Real GDP
Year-over-Year Percent Change
14.0% 14.0%
12.0% 12.0%
10.0% 10.0%
8.0% 8.0%
6.0% 6.0%
4.0% 4.0%
2.0% 2.0%
Year-over-Year Percent Change: Q4 @ 10.7%
0.0% 0.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: Bloomberg LP, IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
continued solid growth over the course of the year because
Chinese policymakers are unlikely to slam on the policy brakes.
Recoveries in many Latin American countries also appear to be
underway. Following the modest recession in late 2008/early
2009, real GDP in Brazil has surpassed its previous peak as the
economy expanded rapidly in the second half of last year. The
strong rise in industrial production in the first two months of
2010 suggests that the expansion has remained intact.
Unfortunately, economic recovery is not as advanced in Europe
as it is in Asia or Latin America at present. Real GDP in the
United Kingdom rose only 0.4 percent (not annualized) in the
fourth quarter, and it was essentially flat in the euro-zone. The
manufacturing PMIs for the euro-zone and the United
Kingdom have risen sharply in recent months (bottom chart),
but “hard” data have yet to confirm the apparent upturn in
economic activity. Although indices of industrial production in
the euro-zone and the United Kingdom are up modestly from
their lows of last year, both indices are 15 percent or so below
their peaks of early 2008.
We forecast that Europe will continue to expand, albeit at a
subdued pace, for the remainder of the year. Whereas the
probability of a double-dip recession in Asia is very low, the
risk of a renewed downturn in Europe, although not our official
forecast, is not insignificant. The biggest risk we foresee to
economic growth in the euro-zone this year is related to the
government debt crisis that has appeared recently, most visibly
in Greece. Specifically, the fiscal consolidation that is
happening already and that will continue for the foreseeable
future will exert a drag on economic growth in the euro area.
With growth already slow, it would not take much fiscal
tightening to push the region back into a mild recession.
In sum, it is our expectation that the global recovery that began
in mid-2009 will remain intact this year, although the pace of
growth will vary widely across regions.
European Manufacturing
Purchasing Manager Indices
65 65
60 60
55 55
50 50
45 45
40 40
35 35
Euro-zone PMI: Mar @ 56.6
U.K. PMI: Mar @ 57.2
30 30
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
4
Economics Group International Economic Forecast Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Wells Fargo International Economic Forecast

(Year-over-Year Percent C hange)
GDP CPI
2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011
Global (PPP weights) -0.8% 4.3% 4.1% 2.8% 4.6% 4.4%
Global (Market Exchange Rates) -2.0% 3.1% 2.9% n/a n/a n/a

1
Advanced Economies -3.4% 2.5% 2.5% -0.3% 1.8% 1.8%
United States -2.4% 3.0% 2.5% -0.3% 2.3% 2.4%
Eurozone -4.0% 1.3% 2.2% 0.3% 1.5% 1.4%
United Kingdom -4.9% 1.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.9% 1.9%
Japan -5.2% 2.6% 1.7% -1.3% -0.5% 0.5%
Korea 0.1% 5.0% 3.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.8%
Canada -2.6% 3.1% 2.8% 0.3% 2.2% 2.1%

1
Developing Economies 2.4% 6.3% 6.1% 6.5% 7.9% 7.5%
China 8.5% 9.7% 9.0% -0.7% 2.9% 3.5%
India 6.8% 8.0% 7.8% 11.4% 13.7% 8.0%
Mexico -6.5% 3.4% 3.5% 5.3% 5.6% 6.1%
Brazil -0.2% 4.9% 5.3% 4.9% 5.6% 6.1%
Russia -7.9% 3.6% 4.1% 11.8% 6.8% 8.8%
Forecast as of: April 7, 2010
1
Aggregated Using PPP Weights

Wells Fargo International Interest Rate Forecast

(End of Quarter Rates)
3-Month LIBOR 10-Year Bond
2010 2011 2010 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
U.S. 0.35% 0.55% 0.80% 1.50% 2.35% 3.10% 4.20% 4.20% 4.30% 4.40% 4.50% 4.50%
Japan 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 1.35% 1.35% 1.45% 1.50% 1.60% 1.80%
Euroland 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.40% 2.25% 3.00% 3.25% 3.30% 3.70% 4.00% 4.25% 4.40%
U.K. 0.65% 0.75% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 3.25% 4.10% 4.40% 4.70% 4.80% 4.90% 5.00%
Canada 0.40% 0.50% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.50% 3.60% 3.90% 4.10% 4.30% 4.40% 4.45%
Forecast as of: April 7, 2010

Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

5
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group

Diane Schumaker-Krieg Global Head of Research (704) 715-8437 diane.schumaker@wellsfargo.com

& Economics (212) 214-5070

John E. Silvia, Ph.D. Chief Economist (704) 374-7034 john.silvia@wellsfargo.com

Mark Vitner Senior Economist (704) 383-5635 mark.vitner@wellsfargo.com
Jay Bryson, Ph.D. Global Economist (704) 383-3518 jay.bryson@wellsfargo.com
Scott Anderson, Ph.D. Senior Economist (612) 667-9281 scott.a.anderson@wellsfargo.com
Eugenio Aleman, Ph.D. Senior Economist (612) 667-0168 eugenio.j.aleman@wellsfargo.com
Sam Bullard Economist (704) 383-7372 sam.bullard@wellsfargo.com
Anika Khan Economist (704) 715-0575 anika.khan@wellsfargo.com
Azhar Iqbal Econometrician (704) 383-6805 azhar.iqbal@wellsfargo.com
Adam G. York Economist (704) 715-9660 adam.york@wellsfargo.com
Ed Kashmarek Economist (612) 667-0479 ed.kashmarek@wellsfargo.com
Tim Quinlan Economist (704) 374-4407 tim.quinlan@wellsfargo.com
Kim Whelan Economic Analyst (704) 715-8457 kim.whelan@wellsfargo.com
Yasmine Kamaruddin Economic Analyst (704) 374-2992 yasmine.kamaruddin@wellsfargo.com

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