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Brief Outline:
The analysis presented is based on the assumption that the data set is exhaustive. All inferences are only
based on the 532 data points given. This case study identifies a scenario which gives a higher MER (greater
than 2) based on the findings from given datasets.
Theory Used:
We find the correlation between the 11 variables which are assumed to affect the MER, using simple graphical
inference methods and K-means clustering.
Brief Understanding of Data:
The data set given has 532 entries with 11 variables. Since the length of the dataset is not large, if we classify
it with respect to each and every variable the distinctiveness factor would be high, making pattern finding
difficult. Therefore, we have cut down on the number of variables. Some of the variables (for e.g. time, order)
have been omitted (after concluding that they, perhaps, dont play a big role in determining MER based on the
correlations) for the same reason.
The average value for the MER for the given dataset is 0.83 which we aim to increase.
Method:
On glancing at the data set, we realize that MER is the ratio of sales versus spends. The MER for the given
data set ranges from 0-6.46. Subsequently, the MERs were chunked into five groups (0-0.5, 0.5-1.0, 1.0-1.5,
1.5-2.0 and greater than 2.0) to make analysis easier.
For the first part of the analysis, histograms of MER against day, month, time-slots and Content of Infomercials
(CREATIVE) were plotted. Some of these have been shown below -
On X-axis, we have the chunks (0.5 denotes the range of MER from 0-0.5 and 1 denotes the range of MER from
0.5-1.0 and so on) of MER and on Y-axis, frequency of these MER on Monday. Similarly the other plots are
plotted for rest of days.
Time Slot
4.0187
3.6933
2.1034
3.000
Area
31.1062
28.4578
7.2069
28.2977
Channel
12.5188
41.9822
76.8276
72.8864
MER VALUE
0.8141
0.9031
0.8710
0.6978
The second cluster fares the best for our purpose with an average MER value of 0.90. On visualizing the data, a
high variance was found in that particular cluster. Therefore, k-means clustering was repeated for this
particular cluster with k=5. With this we can increase the average MER value to 1.25 which is a marked
improvement over the original value and also over our crude graphical method.
Day
3.9
3.5227
3.556
2.7436
3.9394
Time Slot
3.4
4.1477
3.2889
2.7949
2.2727
Area
35.1
35.9091
19.533
14.9231
32.7273
Channel
53.2500
36.6705
49.2334
35.4615
47.12
MER VALUE
1.2515
0.8496
0.8529
0.9262
0.8867
Although, in the above clustering methods we have assumed that the elements though being discreet can be
taken as continuous.
Reason to choose to particular method:
Our objective was to increase the MER for which we see how MER co-varies with other variables. For that I
plotted histograms of MER v/s day, MER v/s month, MER v/s Time Slots and MER v/s Content of the
infomercials (CREATIVE). These helped us to infer the factors that are inversely proportional to MER.
Recommendation Based on K-means Clustering:
Based on the above cluster, the tentative strategy to increase MER would be by planning infomercials only in
the times given in the data set of the cluster with MER=1.25.