CURRENT STATISTICS

EPW Research Foundation

Wholesale Price Index

Foreign TradeMerchandise

The year-on-year (y-o-y) WPI inflation rate continued to be negative for the 12th
consecutive month dipping to -3.8% in October 2015 (1.66% a year ago), but the
deflation is low compared to -4.5% recorded in September 2015. The index for
primary articles group fell by -0.4%, compared to -2.1% in September 2015,
while the inflation for food articles inched up to 2.4% in October 2015 from 0.7%
a month ago. The fuel and power index fell sharply by -16.3% in October 2015,
compared to 0.5% in October 2014. The index for manufactured products
declined by -1.7% in October 2015 against an inflation of 2.5% a year ago.

The merchandise trade deficit reduced by 28.1% to $9.8 billion (bn) in October
2015, compared to $13.6 bn in October 2014, owing to a 21.2% fall in imports, and
17.5% decline in exports. Exports continued to contract for the 11th month in a
row and stood at $154.3 bn during AprilOctober 2015, which is lower by 17.6%
compared to $187.3 bn reported in the same period last year. Cumulative imports
also shrank by 15.2% to $232.1 bn from $273.6 bn registered a year ago. Similarly,
cumulative oil imports fell by 42.1% to $55 bn and non-oil imports declined
marginally by 0.9% to $177.1 bn.

Consumer Price Index

Index of Industrial Production

The CPI inflation rate inched up to 5.0% in October 2015, compared to 4.4% in
September 2015 and 4.6% in October 2014, owing to a sharp increase in food
prices. The food price inflation rate increased by 5.3% in October 2015, against
3.9%, a month ago. The CPI-rural inflation rate rose to 5.5% in October, compared
to 5.1% a month ago (4.8% a year ago). The CPI-urban inflation rate increased to
4.3% from 3.6% (4.5% in October 2014). As per Labour Bureau data, CPI inflation
for industrial workers and agricultural labourers increased to 5.1% and 3.5%,
respectively, in September 2015 from 4.3% and 3.0%, in August 2015.

IIP growth slowed down by 3.6% y-o-y in September 2015, compared to 6.3% in August
2015. This was due to deceleration in the growth of mining and manufacturing,
which registered 3% and 2.6% growth respectively, in September 2015 against
4.2% and 6.6% in August 2015. Electricity generation grew faster at 11.5%
compared to 5.6% a month ago (3.9% a year ago). As per use-based classification,
growth in basic and capital goods slowed to 4% and 10.5%, respectively, in
September 2015 from 5% and 12.3%, a year ago. Intermediate goods grew at 2.1% in
September. Consumer durables grew by 8.4% while non-durables declined by 4.6%

Movement of WPI Inflation AprilOctober

Merchandise Trade October 2015

Year-on-Year in %
6

2014
3

1.7%

Exports
Imports
Trade deficit

Oct 2015
($ bn)

Over Month
(%)

21.4
31.1
9.8

-2.3
-3.7
-6.8

Over Year
(%)

Year-so-far (AprilOct)
(201516 over 201415) (%)

-17.5
-21.2
-28.1

-17.6
-15.2
-9.9

Data is provisional. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

0

Components of Trade AprilOctober of 201415 and 201516

$187 billion
Exports

$154 billion

-3

-3.8%

2015
-6
April

May

June

July

August

September*

October*

* Data (2015) is provisional.

$86 billion
Trade Deficit

Trends in WPI and Its Components October 2015* (%)

Weights

Over Month

100
20.1
14.3
14.9
65.0

0.1
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.0

All commodities
Primary articles
Food articles
Fuel and power
Manufactured products

Financial Year (Averages)

201213 201314 201415

Over Year

-3.8
-0.4
2.4
-16.3
-1.7

7.4
9.8
9.9
10.3
5.4

6.0
9.8
12.8
10.2
3.0

2.0
3.0
6.1
-0.9
2.4

$78 billion

$55 billion

$95 billion
Oil Imports
$177 billion

$179 billion
Non-Oil Imports

Oil refers to crude petroleum and petroleum products, while non-oil refers to all other commodities.

Movement of IIP Growth AprilSeptember

* Data is provisional; Base: 200405=100; Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

Year-on-Year in %

Movement of CPI Inflation April 2014October 2015

Year-on-Year in %

2015

3.6%

Consumer Food

2.4%

2
6

5.3%
5.0%

CPI

3.5%
3

Miscellaneous
0

April
2014

Jan
2015

2014
0

April

May

June

July

August

September*

* September 2015 are quick estimates; Base: 200405=100.

Industrial Growth: Sector-wise September 2015* (%)

A

Weights

Over
Month

100
14.2
75.5
10.3

0.8
-0.8
1.0
0.7

3.6
3.0
2.6
11.4

-0.1
-0.6
-0.8
6.1

2.8
1.5
2.3
8.4

45.7
8.8
15.7
29.8
8.5
21.3

-1.2
7.7
-1.3
1.6
2.3
1.1

4.0
10.5
2.1
0.6
8.4
-4.6

2.1
-3.6
3.1
-2.8
-12.2
4.8

7.0
6.4
1.7
-3.4
-12.6
2.8

Oct*

General index
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity

* Data is provisional.
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Base: 2012=100.

CPI: Rural and Urban October 2015* (%)

Latest
Month Index

Over
Month

Over
Year

Financial Year (Avgs)

201314 201415

Rural (2012=100)

127.7

0.6

5.5

9.6

6.2

Urban (2012=100)

124.2

0.6

4.3

9.4

5.7

Industrial workers (2001=100)

266

0.8

5.1

9.7

6.3

Agricultural labourers (198687=100)

839

0.8

3.5

11.6

6.6

CPI: Occupation-wise Sept 2015*

Over Year

Financial Year (Avgs)

201314
201415

Industrial Growth: Use-based

Basic goods
Capital goods
Intermediate goods
Consumer goods
Consumer durables
Consumer non-durables

* September 2015 are quick estimates; Base: 200405=100; Source: Central Statistics Office.

* Provisional. Source: CSO (rural and urban), Labour Bureau (IW and AL).

Comprehensive current economic statistics with regular weekly updates are available at: http://www.epwrf.in/currentstat.aspx.
Economic & Political Weekly

EPW

NOVEMBER 28, 2015

vol L no 48

87

CURRENT STATISTICS

EPW Research Foundation

Indias Quarterly Estimates of Final Expenditures on GDP for 201415

201415
Rs crore | at 201112 Prices

Private final consumption expenditure

Government final consumption expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation
Change in stocks
Valuables
Net trade (ExportImport)
Exports
Less imports
Discrepancies
Gross domestic product (GDP)

Q1

1483613
306488
769880
41969
41528
-34550
596944
631494
-74273
2534654

Q2

(6.2)
(1.6)
(8.7)
(4.9)
(26.2)

1443019
338349
777597
40276
36999
-62135
628508
690643
-7811
2566294

(9.1)
(-3.6)
(6.7)

Q3

(7.1)
(8.9)
(3.8)
(4.4)
(8.9)

1543034
276412
789694
37469
36010
-40438
607707
648145
26616
2668797

(-2.0)
(1.1)
(8.4)

201516
Q1

Q4

(4.2)
(27.6)
(2.4)
(0.2)
(20.3)

1594581
236561
854802
44284
53348
-8297
601191
609488
98959
2874237

(-0.3)
(2.8)
(6.6)

(7.9)
(-7.9)
(4.1)
(4.9)
(43.6)

1592806
310018
807225
44076
49589
-39102
558269
597371
-51615
2712998

(-8.2)
(-8.7)
(7.5)

Financial Year
201314 (NS)

(7.4)
(1.2)
(4.9)
(5.0)
(19.4)

5704132
1086121
3050236
158211
133975
-183308
2453005
2636313
-28262
9921106

(-6.5)
(-5.4)
(7.0)

201415 (PE)

(6.2)
(8.2)
(3.0)
(-21.4)
(-48.7)

6064247
1157810
3191973
163998
167884
-145420
2434350
2579770
43491
10643983

(7.3)
(-8.4)
(6.9)

(6.3)
(6.6)
(4.6)
(3.7)
(25.3)
(-0.8)
(-2.1)
(7.3)

Indias Overall Balance of Payments (Net): Quarterly and Annual

201415 ($ mn)
Q2
Q3

Q1

Current account
Merchandise
Invisibles
Services
of which: Software services
Transfers
of which: Private
Income
Capital account
of which: Foreign investment
Overall balance

-7859
-34562
26703
16986
17014
16413
16626
-6696
19179
20321
11179

-10128
-38605
28477
18992
16917
16344
16513
-6860
16518
17678
6897

($ mn)
Q1 201516
FY 201415

Q4

-8425
-39287
30863
20299
17844
16392
16527
-5829
23551
13495
13182

-1525
-31725
30200
19406
18625
16393
16609
-5599
30711
22067
30149

-6190
-34197
28007
17423
17658
16157
16274
-5573
18073
7874
11430

201415 (Rupees bn)

Q2
Q3

Q1

-27937
-144179
116242
75683
70400
65542
66275
-24983
89959
73561
61406

-470 [-1.6] -614 [-2.0]

-2067
-2340
1597
1726
1016
1151
1017
1025
981
991
994
1001
-400
-416
1147 [3.8]
1001 [3.3]
1215
1071
668 [2.2]
418 [1.4]

(Rupees bn)
Q1 201516
FY 201415

Q4

-522 [-1.6]
-2433
1911
1257
1105
1015
1024
-361
1459 [4.6]
836
816 [2.6]

-95 [-0.3]
-1974
1880
1208
1159
1020
1034
-348
1911 [5.8]
1373
1876 [5.7]

-393 [-1.2]
-2,171
1,778
1,106
1,121
1,025
1,033
-354
1,147 [3.5]
500
725 [2.2]

-1700 [-1.4]
-8814
7114
4632
4307
4007
4052
-1526
5518 [4.4]
4496
3779 [3.0]

Figures in square brackets are percentage to GDP.

Foreign Exchange Reserves

Excluding gold but including revaluation effects

Rs crore
US $ mn

Variation
14 Nov
2014

31 Mar
2015

1816690
294292

2010400
321309

13 Nov
2015

Over
Month

Over
Year

2189400
332527

25950
-1525

372710
38236

Financial Year So Far

201415
201516

128950
13469

Monetary Aggregates
Rs crore

Money supply (M3) as on 30 October

Components
Currency with public
Demand deposits
Time deposits
Other deposits with RBI
Sources
Net bank credit to government
Bank credit to commercial sector
Net foreign exchange assets
Banking sectors net non-monetary liabilities
Reserve Money as on 13 November
Components
Currency in circulation
Bankers deposits with RBI
Other deposits with RBI
Sources
Net RBI credit to Government
of which: Centre
RBI credit to banks & commercial sector
Net foreign exchange assets of RBI
Govts currency liabilities to the public
Net non-monetary liabilities of RBI

Outstanding
2015

Over Month

11227440

7390 (0.1)

Over Year
201415

Aggregate deposits
Demand
Time
Cash in hand
Balance with RBI
Investments
of which: Government securities
Bank credit
of which: Non-food credit

Capital Markets
S&P BSE SENSEX (Base: 197879=100)
S&P BSE-100 (Base: 198384=100)
S&P BSE-200 (198990=100)
CNX Nifty (Base: 3 Nov 1995=1000)
Net FII investment in equities (US $ Million)*

201112

73038
19208

108086
-14361

179000
11219

Variation
Financial Year So Far
201516

Financial Year
201213

82800
-485

602790 (6.3)

681890 (6.5)

201314

201415

251570
16769

322660
40486

Financial Year
201314

201213

1107270 (10.9)

1024980 (13.9)

201415

1127560 (13.4)

1028170 (10.8)

1444470
953740
8813870
15360

30420
-2400
-19770
-870

(2.2)
(-0.3)
(-0.2)
(-5.4)

143960
113020
842990
7300

(11.1)
(13.4)
(10.6)
(90.6)

54700
28740
513250
6100

(4.4)
(3.5)
(6.9)
(311.2)

58120
62990
560000
770

(4.2)
(7.1)
(6.8)
(5.3)

118420
42240
863900
420

(11.6)
(5.9)
(15.3)
(14.9)

104750
58760
965340
-1280

(9.2)
(7.8)
(14.9)
(-39.5)

140540
78770
796240
12630

(11.3)
(9.7)
(10.7)
(644.4)

3278130
7307150
2402810
1781290
1991860

-63850
-25330
5780
-90800
64050

(-1.9)
(-0.3)
(0.2)
(-4.9)
(3.3)

169930
581910
384150
30760
242460

(5.5)
(8.7)
(19.0)
(1.8)
(13.9)

63330
279950
94710
-163540
16660

(2.1)
(4.3)
(4.9)
(-8.5)
(1.0)

271970
267570
152160
11030
63400

(9.0)
(3.8)
(6.8)
(0.6)
(3.3)

337320
709420
92880
116530
88540

(14.2)
(14.3)
(6.0)
(7.7)
(6.2)

335850
777430
287290
275010
217850

(12.4)
(13.7)
(17.6)
(16.8)
(14.4)

-38710
594290
326700
-143810
195720

(-1.3)
(9.2)
(17.0)
(-7.5)
(11.3)

1581870
395070
14920

70730 (4.7)
-6920 (-1.7)
240 (1.6)

448450
447440
109240
2316110
20650
902590

-13370
-12560
67580
26340
0
16500

(-2.9)
(-2.7)
(162.2)
(1.2)
(0.0)
(1.9)

198870 (14.4)
36680 (10.2)
6910 (86.3)
-135170
-134490
58990
390310
2040
73710

(-23.2)
(-23.1)
(117.4)
(20.3)
(11.0)
(8.9)

81930 (6.3)
-71310 (-16.6)
6050 (308.7)
-115090
-115710
-7240
123270
1270
-14440

(-16.5)
(-16.6)
(-12.6)
(6.8)
(7.3)
(-1.7)

133560 (9.2)
-70490 (-15.1)
330 (2.3)

123750 (11.6)
-35610 (-10.0)
420 (14.9)

110090 (9.2)
109020 (34.0)
-1280 (-39.5)

83930
86400
-93260
188830
1220
117320

54840
56080
34610
85860
1900
88670

108130
107140
14080
244470
2000
150810

(23.0)
(23.9)
(-46.1)
(8.9)
(6.3)
(14.9)

Scheduled Commercial Banks Indicators (Rs crore)

(As on 30 October)

201011

Outstanding
2015

Over Year
201415

20 November
2015

25868
7996
3331
7857
166030

(-7.8)
(-5.7)
(-3.4)
(-6.5)
(2.7)

(18.3)
(18.1)
.
(15.7)
(13.0)
(21.8)

-334190
-336600
145010
324750
2090
-58050

(-47.8)
(-48.2)
.
(18.0)
(12.1)
(-6.9)

Variation
Over Month

9140030
854960
8285070
62950
375510
2680750
2678160
6803970
6701520

(10.2)
(10.5)
(393.3)
(5.8)
(14.1)
(14.7)

147240 (11.3)
35860 (8.3)
12630 (644.4)

-23790
-2250
-21540
7520
-11200
-13560
-13920
-26270
-41260

(-0.3)
(-0.3)
(-0.3)
(13.6)
(-2.9)
(-0.5)
(-0.5)
(-0.4)
(-0.6)

Month
Ago

27307
8390
3484
8262
166627

915900
106920
808970
4880
35470
279130
278170
559780
566300

(11.1)
(14.3)
(10.8)
(8.4)
(10.4)
(11.6)
(11.6)
(9.0)
(9.2)

Year
Ago

28068
8475
3448
8402
161606

(36.0)
(38.4)
(41.2)
(37.2)
(12.7)

518570
34110
484460
12210
23690
188800
188790
250100
239570

Financial Year So Far

201516

(6.7)
(4.8)
(6.9)
(26.6)
(7.5)
(8.5)
(8.5)
(4.2)
(4.1)

Financial Year So Far

Trough
Peak

24894
7687
3193
7559
-

29044
8980
3691
8834
-

606740
60930
545810
9600
2430
188920
188410
267550
259520

(7.1)
(7.7)
(7.1)
(18.0)
(0.7)
(7.6)
(7.6)
(4.1)
(4.0)

841360
36970
804400
4360
-41000
268320
268640
648610
633490

201415
Trough
Peak

22277
6680
2678
6653
-

Financial Year
201314

201213

(14.2)
(5.9)
(15.2)
(12.1)
(-12.7)
(15.4)
(15.5)
(14.1)
(14.0)

955110
51630
903480
5370
34090
206720
207550
733630
731610

End of Financial Year

201314

201213

29682
9107
3723
8996
-

18836
5679
2288
5683
136304

(14.1)
(7.8)
(14.8)
(13.3)
(12.1)
(10.3)
(10.4)
(13.9)
(14.2)

(8.2)
(-38.0)
(6.0)
(7.3)
(23.4)

22386
6707
2681
6704
149745

(18.8)
(18.1)
(17.2)
(18.0)
(9.9)

201415

827730
80100
747620
7490
56730
279010
278550
542330
546350

(10.7)
(11.2)
(10.7)
(16.3)
(17.9)
(12.6)
(12.6)
(9.0)
(9.3)

201415

27957
8607
3538
8491
168116

(24.9)
(28.3)
(31.9)
(26.7)
(12.3)

* = Cumulative total since November 1992 until period end | Figures in brackets are percentage variations over the specified or over the comparable period of the previous year | (-) = not relevant | -: not available | NS = new series | PE = provisional estimates
Comprehensive current economic statistics with regular weekly updates are available at: http://www.epwrf.in/currentstat.aspx.

88

NOVEMBER 28, 2015

vol L no 48

EPW

Economic & Political Weekly