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Combined Gas and Electricity Infrastructure

Planning
Meysam Qadrdan
Energy Infrastructure Symposium
Imperial College London
17th December 2014

Motivation
Gas-fired plants link power systems to gas networks.
Availability and price of gas can affect expansion and
operation of the power system.

Emerging technologies (such as power-to-gas


systems) make gas and electricity networks
interactions stronger.
The increased interactions between these networks
necessitates developing models to unpack and
make sense of the complex interactions.
2

CGEN+
CGEN+ is a Combined Gas and Electricity Network
expansion planning model
CGEN+ uses cost minimisation approach to:
Determine where, when, what type
and how much capacity need to be
built, subject to: meeting energy
demand, CO2 target (if set) and any
other constraints.
Investigate impacts of a particular
strategy on both networks (e.g.
impact of GB shale gas exploitation
on the gas import and generation
mix).
3

CGEN+ (Cont.)
Inputs
Regional and
temporal demand
data
Capacity/location/
type of the existing
infrastructure
Capital and
operating costs of
infrastructure
Fuel and carbon
prices, discount rate
Characteristics of
infrastructure:
efficiency, lifetime,
emission intensity,

CGEN+ model
(Non Linear Mixed Integer Programming)
Objective function
min =

1
1+




+
+

Constraints
Emission and renewable targets (if set)
Meeting gas and electricity demand (otherwise a
high shedding cost is incurred)
Operation within technical capacity of infrastructure
Maintaining a minimum level of capacity margins
Resource availability: indigenous gas reserve, gas
and electricity imports, wind energy (spatial and
seasonal capacity factor)

Outputs
Optimal
capacity/location/
type of the new
infrastructure
Optimal cost
(investment and
operation) of the
system
CO2 emission: total
(tonne) and
intensity (g/kWh)

CGEN+: Geographical scale


Gas network for GB

A simplified electricity network for GB

CGEN+: Time steps granularity


Demand profile for a representative day

off-peak
(11 hours)

Intermediate
(11 hours)

P
e
a
k

Cold (181 days)

Intermediate (92 days) Warm (92 days)

Different seasons in a year

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Planning time steps


CGEN+ is flexible to take various time horizons and time steps:
Time horizon: between 10 years to few decades
Planning time step: between 1 year to 10 years
6

Case studies
CGEN+ was employed to:
Evaluate performance of a number of low carbon
strategies (cost, emission and import dependency)
Investigate impacts of transition to a low carbon power
system on the GB gas network
Analyse interactions between energy and water sector:
Regional water consumption for cooling thermal power
plant was estimated.

Transport

Energy

Water

Low carbon strategies for power sector

Central fuel
price,
population and
GDP growth
projected by
DECC

Technological changes in
demand sector

Carbon
Price floor

Minimal efficiency
improvements and no DSR

No technology is
imposed

Yes

Large increase in electric


vehicle and heat pump
uptake; no energy
conservation;
minimal efficiency
improvement and solar
installations; moderate
DSR

High nuclear

Yes

High CCS

Yes

High offshore
generation

Yes

MPI: Minimal policy Intervention

Generation
technology

Strategies

MPI
Electrification of Heat & Transport

GDP/population/ fuel
price scenarios

EHT-Nuclear
EHT-CCS
EHT-Offshore

EHT: Electrification of Heat and Transport

In EHT-Nuclear, capacity of nuclear plants was assumed to reach 90 GW by 2050 (DECC 2050 pathway level 3).
In EHT-CCS, capacity of CCS-equipped coal and gas was assumed to reach 47 GW by 2050 (DECC 2050 pathway
level 3).
In EHT-Offshore, capacity of offshore wind was assumed to reach 100 GW by 2050 and capacity of tidal and wave
generation was assumed to reach 42 GW by 2050 (DECC 2050 pathway level 3).

Demand for gas and electricity


Annual and peak gas demand

Annual and peak electricity demand

Gas demand for power generation is


excluded, as it is output of the model.
Electrification of heat sector
significantly reduces the gas demand

Electrification of heat and transport


sectors doubles the peak electricity
demand
Demand data was produced by:
P. Baruah and N. Eyre, Oxford University

Generation capacity mix

CCGTs play significant role in 2050 either to supply base load or act as
peaking/backup generation technology.
Substantially large total generation capacity in EHT Offshore (~2 x peak)
due to variable wind power output.

Capacity factor for CCGTs

Capacity factor for CCGT plants drops to around 10% by 2050 in strategies
which has large capacity of variable and inflexible generation technologies.
In EHT strategies, CCGT plants will operate mostly as back up for variable and
inflexible generations.
Capacity payment is needed to encourage the investment

Gas supply and import dependency


Import dependency increases
in response to depletion of
UKCS reserves.
LNG is expected to have the
largest share in supplying gas
by 2050.

Annual gas supply

Import dependency
Strategy

Gas import capacity

2010 2050

MPI

94%

74%

EHT-Nuclear

84%

9%

91%

56%

85%

25%

EHT-CCS
EHT-Offshore

55%

How can shale gas help?

Location of gas supply sources

Source: National Grid

Change in gas flow pattern


Gas network reinforcement in some part of the network

Cost and CO2 intensity

Considerably higher costs is expected when offshore generation (wind,


wave and tidal) supply bulk of electricity demand, due to high capital and
fixed O&M costs of offshore technologies.
Employing unabated CCGTs to provide backup for wind generation has an
adverse impact on the CO2 intensity.

Cooling water for power generation/1


Regional cooling water
demand was calculated
for each generation
strategy.
Large installation of CCS
plants significantly
increase abstraction of
fresh water in some
regions.
Produced by:
Colleagues from University of Newcastle and
Oxford University

15

Cooling water for power generation/2

16

Summary
CGEN+ provides insights into complex
interdependent gas and electricity networks.
The model has continually evolved to also
capture interactions with other sectors
including water, transport and waste.

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!


Contact:

Meysam Qadrdan
m.qadrdan@imperial.ac.uk
qadrdanm@cardiff.ac.uk

Acknowledgement to:
Prof. Nick Jenkins
Prof. Goran Strbac
Dr Modassar Chaudry

Cardiff University
Imperial College London
Cardiff University