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Linear Programming Homework Illustrations and Solutions
Question: 1
From the following data, fit a free hand smooth curve and forecast the trend values thereby.
Year:
Pardon of
paddy (in
000tonnes):

1992
65

1993
80

1994
100

1995
70

1996
80

1997
110

1998
115

1999
130

2000
90

2001
100

2002
150

2003
160

Solution:
Graphic representation of the trend line relating to the production of Paddy by the method
of free hand curve.

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2004
120

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(b) Forecasting of the trend values by location on the trend line.

Year:
Pardon of
paddy (in
000tonnes):

1992
64

1993
70

1994
77

1995
82

1996
85

1997
87

1998
100

1999
113

2000
107

2001
118

2002
121

2003
123

From the above, it may be observed that there is a gradual rise in the trend values as
against zig zag yearly values.
The trend line thus drawn above can be extended to forecast the values for any future year.
But this method being purely of subjective nature, cannot always give dependable results.
(ii) Arbitrary Average Method
Under this method, the values of any two points of time preferably, those of the extreme
ones, or any other close to them are arbitrarily selected as the average of trend in the
series. Basing upon these two average, a trend line drawn on a graph paper in a free hand
smoothed manner to show the general tendency of the data. Referring to such a trend line,
the trend values of the different times are

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determine d by location. Alternatively, the trend values of the different times are computed
by adjusting the average change in value of the preceding point of time is represented by
1, and that of the succeeding point of time by 2 , and the time gap between the two points
of time by N. The average change in the values between the two selected points of time is
computed by

() =

2 1

This average change in value is multiplied by the time gap t between the selected point of
time and the observed time and the 4resultant figure is subtracted from the observed value
of the preceding times and added to the observed values of the succeeding times to find out
their respective trend values.

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Question: 2
From the following data, fit a trend line, and obtain the trend values for the different years
using the arbitrary average method:
Year :
Sales (in
000
tonnes) :

1996
20

1997
22

1998
24

1999
21

2000
23

2001
25

2002
25

2003
26

2004
24

Solution:
(a) Selecting arbitrarily the sales of 1997, and 2003 as the average points 1 and 2 we
obtain the trend line as follows:
Graphic representation of the Trend Line by the arbitrary average method.1

(b) Computation of the trend values

(i)

Locating on the above trend line we obtain the trend values for the different
years as follows:

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(ii) Alternatively
Taking the average change in the annual values we obtain the trend values for the different
years as follows:
Average change or =
=

2 1

2622
6

= 0.67

Adding this average change (.67) to the value of 1 (22) successively for all the years
succeeding 1996 and subtracting this average change (.67) from the value of 1 (22)
successively for all the years preceding 1996 we obtain the trend values as under:
Year :
Trend
Values

199
6
21.3
3

1997
22

1998
22.67

1999
23.33

2000
24

2001
24.67

2002
25.33

2003
26

2004
24

(iii)Semi-average Method
Under this method, the trend line is fitted to a time series basing upon the average values
(usually arithmetic mean) of its two haves called semi-averages. For this, the entire series
is divided into two halves, leaving aside there value of the middle period, if there are odd
number of periods in the series. The average value of the first half portion of the series is
represented by 1 and that of the second half portion by 2 . These two averages are placed
against the mid-point these two semi averages 1 and 2 , in a straight linear manner. The
trend values for the different times are determined by locating the points on this line. The
trend line thus drawn can also be extended both the ways to estimate the trend values for
any earlier and later period.
Alternatively, the trend values for the different years can also be obtained by adjusting the
average change between the two semi average

. . 2 =

2 1

to any of the semi

average value in accordance with the times of deviations from the time of any of the semi
averages. Hence, the trend value for any year is computed by
T =1 or 2 +(
Where,

2 1

).x

T = trend value to be computed for any year

1 = Semi average of the first half of the series.

2 = Semi average of the second half of the series.
N = time difference between 1 and 2
And

x = Time deviation from 1 2 as the case may be.

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