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power system life cycle cost analysis

- Whipstock Brochure from ITS
- Fundamental of HVDC FACTS Devices
- Naphthenics Magazine Issue 3-2012
- Suyash Shah
- Central-Maine-Power-Co-PDF-
- Fundamentals of Reliability Engineering - Part 1 Feb 2012
- Vita Kishor s Trivedi
- 3EP6_en
- Development Assessment
- Consumer Rates
- ISTN3SA Milestone 2 Presentation
- 2012-13 ME Electricl Engineering (Electricl Power System )
- Byfield ISE Gamma m
- Project Management- Topic 1
- Fracas Form
- lec-20.pdf
- Powermanagement Pt
- improved
- NORMA
- PSCE2011P-000339

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E1.6

The Use of Life Cycle Cost Analysis to Determine the Most Effective Cost

of Installation 500 kV of Java-Sumatra Power Interconnection System

Herry NUGRAHA, Zivion SILALAHI; PLN Indonesia, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia,

herry.nugraha@gmail.com, zivionsilalahi@yahoo.com

Ngapuli SINISUKA; Bandung Institute of Technology, n_sinisuka@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT

In order to transfer 3,000 MW capacity of the electricity

from the Mine-Mouth Coal-fired Power Plants in South

Sumatra to the load center in Java, PLN Indonesia

intends to build the Java-Sumatra Power Interconnection

System. The scopes of these works of the Power

Interconnection System are including: HVAC 500 kV

Transmission Line in Java, HVAC 500 kV Transmission

Line in Sumatra, HVDC 500 kV Transmission Line in

Java, HVDC 500 kV Transmission Line in Sumatra, and

HVDC 500 kV Java-Sumatra submarine cables. This

paper will analyze the financial feasibility study to ensure

if the project has economic benefit, and the asset would

be used effectively and efficiently along its benefit period

using Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA). In this paper, a

LCCA will be simulated to analyze three alternatives and

to decide which alternative is the most profitable. Cash

Flow and Monte Carlo simulations for a period of 30 years

operation of the Interconnection System are part of the

LCC models to achieve the objectives of this paper.

KEYWORDS

Life Cycle Cost Analysis; LCCA; Java-Sumatra 500kV

DC; Power Transmission Submarine Cables; Monte

Carlo.

1. INTRODUCTION

Electricity in Indonesia is currently experienced a rapid

development along with the high growth in industry as well

as residential demand. The characteristic between one

area to another is significantly different. In Java as most

populated island, 2000 MW of electric power need to be

added to meet the increasing demand. Most of the major

power plants are using coal as the energy source. In order

to supply this energy, most of the coals are transported

from other islands (Sumatera and Kalimantan). These

schemes are considered to have many disadvantages,

such as the high transportation cost, and also the

limitation caused by the fluctuation of weather condition.

Regarding to this issue, the Java-Sumatra HVDC

Interconnection System is now under construction in order

to transfer power from Mine-Mouth Coal-fired Power

Plants at South Sumatra to the load center in Java. The

scopes of these works of the Power interconnection

system are including: HVDC 500 kV transmission line in

Sumatra, and HVDC 500 kV Java-Sumatra submarine

cables, HVAC 500 kV transmission line in Java, HVAC

500 kV transmission line in Sumatra, HVDC 500 kV

transmission line in Java,. Configuration of this system is

provided in figure 1.

In Java-Sumatra transmission (especially in the HVDC

sequence), several configuration can be designed

regarding to the engineering and economic issues.

Interconnection System

In this paper, it will be discussed how to calculate and

chose the most effective cost of Java-Sumatra Power

Interconnection System. The scopes of these works of the

Power Interconnection System during its life cycle (LCC).

The objective of the LCC is to choose some alternatives

of the most cost effective approach to determine the

lowest long term cost of ownership [6].LCC is the total

cost of ownership including the cost of the project or asset

acquisition, operation & maintenance, and disposal. LCC

includes both deterministic costs (such as acquisition

costs, yearly maintenance costs and disposal costs) and

probabilistic costs (such as the cost of failure, repairs

costs, and energy not served (ENS)). Most of the

probabilistic costs associated directly with the reliability

and maintenance characteristics of the system.

Monte Carlo simulation techniques are used to join

probability chance for failure, probability of ENS and

economic data to solve problems of uncertainty. Failure

costs FC are incurred by each year as they fail using a

Monte Carlo simulation of failure or success to cover the

uncertainty.

2. METHODS

2.1 Life Cycle Cost

The method which will be discussed in this paper includes

the scenario of the design decision; parameter of

performance; risk calculation; and computation of all

associated costs of capital, maintenance and failure costs

based on the probability of chance for failure. The method

is proposed to analyze failure data using appropriate cost

profile in order to represent the fact that each scenario of

design and each failure have different prices, in different

time periods at an economic cycle. These steps can be

described briefly as follows:

1. Specify scope,

functions.

boundaries,

environments

and

1/6

E1.6

3. Use Monte Carlo simulation of probability success or

failure of sub-system to calculate Simulated Chance

for Failure of the system. Both parallel model and

series model chance for failure are explained as

follow:

a.

Parallel Model

The system survives if any one element

U1

survives and fails if both elements fail

simultaneously. In a parallel system each

U2

element must be capable of carrying the full

load or else percentage of load capacity.

Mean Time to Failure (MTTF) is calculated using Monte

Carlo simulation based on the value of Weibull Shape

Factor and Weibull Characteristic Life for each subsystem. Time of failure TF is a function of value criterion of

failure F(t). The equations to calculated TF and MTTF are:

T

MTTF

ln 1 F t

!!" "

#

%

"$

"$

[2]

Series Model

causes the system to fail. For system

success, all elements of the system

must be successful simultaneously. To calculate

Simulated Chance for Failure of series equipment using

Monte Carlo simulation can be explained as follow:

U1

U2

U1, U2, , Un.

2. Describe decision equipment En of the success value

as 1 if RAND() > Un else the value of failure as 0.

3. Calculate assembly of two series equipment:

If 100% capacity of E1 = 1 and 100% capacity of E2 =

st

1 than the decision system reliable 100% at 1

simulation S100%,1 = 1.

If c% capacity of E1 = 1 and 100% capacity of E2 = 1

st

than the decision system reliable c% of capacity at 1

simulation Sc%,1 = 1, or if 100% capacity of E1 = 1

and c% capacity of E2 = 1 than the decision system

st

reliable c% of capacity at 1 simulation Sc%,1 = 1.

If E1 = 0 or E2 = 0 than the decision system unreliable

st

at 1 simulation S0%,1 = 1.

Moreover, the reliability and unreliability can be

calculated as follow:

n

Rx =

S

1

solve problems of uncertainty. Yearly cost breakdown

structure, ENS, Failure Costs (FC), and Net Present

Value (NPV) are incurred by each year as they fail to

cover the uncertainty. The following are the formulas

for calculating costs estimates and NPV:

ENS = SFR x P x ART x LC

[4]

FC = SFR x RCF

[5]

Where:

SFR = Simulated Failure Rate

P = Electric Price ($/kWh)

ART = Average Repair Time (hours)

LC = Load Capacity (MW)

RCF = Repair Cost per Failure ($)

T

NPV = (1+ rt ) t

x,n

[3]

details are assembled. In this step, the result of

Simulated Chance for Failure of 500 kV AC and

500 kV DC using Monte Carlo simulation techniques

[6]

t =1

[1]

TF else the value of failure as 0. During Monte Carlo

simulation calculation, the values of TF and MTTFsystem are

always changing in line with random numbers F(t) =

RAND () generated by computer.

b.

E1.6

where:

Ct = cost during the t period

r = discount rate, and

t = number of time periods

5. Present the calculation result to the chart, table or

graphic as tools of decision maker, such as: Breakeven charts, Pareto charts, Effectiveness, and graphic

of sensitivity analysis.

6. Select preferred course of action using LCC to get

right decision.

2.2 Effectiveness

Effectiveness of the system can be numerically analyzed

using Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, Capability

(RAMC) parameter of each alternative. All of these

parameters give the critical combination and complex

integration of the systems that regard the consequence

frequent failure, where high risks of the integrity of

installation are encountered.

2.2.1 Reliability

Reliability is the probability that a cable is fulfilling its

purpose adequately for the period of time intended.

Reliability associated with effort to reduce frequency of

failures during the interval of time and measure probability

of failure-free operation during the specified time interval.

Reliability is expressed as [7]:

& ' =(

*

+,,-

=(

)./

[7]

2.2.2 Availability

Availability is that aspect of system reliability that takes

equipment maintainability into account. Availability in this

paper will evaluate the consequences of unsuccessful

operation or performance of the submarine cable and the

critical requirements necessary to restore operation or

performance to design expectations. The latter are

including the time needed to have the system routinely

maintained. To measure the availability in whole system,

the availability factor is being used. Availability factor

(AF)is the ratio between the hours of the transmission to

be operated in a given period [7].

2/6

E1.6

AF= /(+)

E1.6

[8]

and MTTF value are obtained by Monte Carlo as will be

explained in the next section.

2.2.3 Maintainability

Maintainability deals with duration of maintenance

outages or how long it takes to achieve (ease and speed)

the maintenance actions compared to a datum. The key

figure of merit for maintainability is often the mean time to

repair (MTTR) and a limit for the maximum repair time (t)

[7].The formula is defined as follows:

M=1-exp(-t/)

[9]

from general experiences. For the case of submarine

cable, this value is determined as 87 days [4]. Based on

this formulation, the failure rates and the maintenance

scheme will affect the maintainability value of each

alternative.

2.2.4 Capability

In electrical power system, capability deals with

productive output compared to inherent productive output

which is a measure of how well the production activity is

performed compared to the datum. Often the term is the

synonymous with productivity which is the product of

efficiency multiplied by utilization. Efficiency measures the

productive work output versus the work input. Utilization

is the ratio of time spent on productive efforts to the total

time consumed [6]. In this paper, the capability C is

defined as probability of power interconnection system

which is capable to meet grid requirement. The condition

is based on the success probability of each component

that configure the system, as showed in figure 2.

3. GENERATING ALTERNATIVES

3.1 The Data

A number of reliability surveys have been established by

CIGRE for HVDC converter stations. The data cover

utilization and availability of many HVDC systems around

the world. The data also represents mean time before

failure (MTBF) and mean time to repair (MTTR) for overall

system and converter station The data cover 7.000 km of

subsea power cable both HVDC and HVAC technologies.

The failure rates are defined by insulation technology,

operating voltage level, and internal/external failures for

both underground and subsea cables. The utilization of

the HVDC systems was 53.4% and 53.3% in 2009 and

2010 respectively. The average availability from CIGRE

study was 95.2% and 91.9% in 2009 and 2010

respectively [2].

Failure to subsea power cables are grouped in two categories:

external failures and internal failures. Most damage is caused

by external violence which can be classified by failures caused

by natural causes and human activities. Internal failures are

due to joint failures or electrical damage. Natural causes of

damage are mainly due to tides and waves and moving

materials on the seabed. That causes corrosion and abrasion,

respectively. Other natural causes are movement of the sea

bottom, tsunami and shark bites. The external violence to

subsea power cables is mainly caused by anchors and fishing

equipment. Ocean dumping of material and other cables can

also be harmful to subsea cables [2].

The total cost for maintenance is estimated at less than

100.000 SEK (or less than 12.000 EUR) per year for each

HVDC link. However, subsea cable repair is very

expensive. The experience from Svenska Kraftnt shows

that a subsea cable repair will cost something between

65-85 MSEK (or 7,5-10 million EUR). Investment cost for

HVDC systems is estimated at 1.0 million EUR per km,

according to Table 4.4. Repair cost for one failure of a 500

km long cable is then almost 20% of the total investment

cost. The average repair time for Swedish cable links is

65 days. Failure rate for large HVDC cable systems are

0,264 failures/year/100 cable kilometers for mechanical

faults and 0.0143 failures/year/100 cable kilometers for

internal faults. The average time to repair damage is

approximately 60 days [2].

Fig. 2: Logic diagram of systems capability

Each of these parameters has a probability based on the

operational data as shown in the diagram. Based on the

configuration, all parameters are calculated by using

following formulas [6]:

P(AND) =p1 p2

[10]

P(OR) = 1(q1q2)

[11]

failure, and q is the complement of p.

are shown in figure 3. The specification of each alternative

is as follow:

1. Alternative 1.

Each of negative and positive paths of the

transmission are using a single cable. These cables

have a delivery capacity of 3,000 MW. One identical

cable are served as a spare in case one of the

operating cables undergoes a failure condition.

2. Alternative 2.

In this configuration, double cable is used to form

positive and negative path of the transmission.

Single cable has a capacity of 1,500 MW, to give the

total capacity equal to 3,000 MW. One spare cable

that has a same capacity (1,500 MW) is provided as

a spare.

3/6

E1.6

3.

Alternative 3.

The configuration is similar to alternatives 2, except

that no spare cable is provided.

E1.6

Assembly of Java Converter is success.

Regarding to three conditions above, the HVDC

System is 50% success.

Finally after 51,032 number simulations the total

number of HVDC System of success is 39,708 times,

so the HVDC System Simulated Chance for Failure

calculated by 39,708 divided by 51,032 than the result

is 0.7781. Other alternatives are calculated and

simulated with similar step.

Refer to equations and models discussed in chapter 2;

alternative generated, data and assumptions discussed in

chapter 3; Monte Carlo simulation, LCCA and

effectiveness calculation can be explained as follow:

1. In this case study, the scopes, boundaries,

environments and functions are Java-Sumatra Power

Interconnection System. Figure 1 show the

configuration of the system which is explaining the

specified scope of alternative 1.

2. In this paper, three alternatives discussed in chapter 3

are alternatives scenario of quantity and type of 500

kV DC Cable as a basis of analysis and calculation

and summarized in table 1.

3. Refer to equations and models at step 3 of the

methods discussed in chapter 3 and based on

scenarios, data and assumptions discussed in chapter

3, Monte Carlo simulation technique and calculation

using Microsoft Excel are implemented to get the

results of HVAC 500 kV Transmission Line in Sumatra

systems Simulated Reliability as shown in table 2.

The next step is compile chance for failure of 2

Converter units, HVDC 500 kV Transmission Line in

Sumatra & Java-Sumatra submarine cables and 2

Converter units which has parallel and series

combination of the system. Results of Monte Carlo

simulations are always different for each trial;

however, results from many trials will show an overall

direction and trend. Table 3 show the sample of

results of alternative 1 that tell us probability success

of 100% load, 50% load and failure of the HVDC

System Simulated Chance for Failure calculated from

probability chance for failure of Sumatra Converter,

HVDC 500 kV Cable, and Sumatra Converter for

51,032 number simulation.

Case in alternative 1, when the random number of

Sumatra Converter #1 is 0.026086, it means 0.026086

< 0.06, make the items fail become 0 or failure.

Moreover, the random number of Sumatra Converter

#2 is 0.432784 (> 0.06)

Sumatra Converter #2 is

success

Assembly of Sumatra Converter is 50%

success.

Then, the random number of HVDC 500 kV Cable #1

is 0.961848 (>0.0174)

HVDC 500 kV Cable #1 is

success, also HVDC 500 kV Cable #2 and #3 are

success

Assembly of HVDC 500 kV Cable is

success.

estimates and cost models where all the details are

assembled including: Land Acquisition, Project Cost,

Yearly Maintenance Cost, ENS, FC, Disposal cost,

and Net Present Value (NPV) alternative 1. In this

step, yearly cost calculated and simulated for 40 years

but the yearly costs from 2nd to 39th are not shown at

table 4 cause of paper space. Other alternatives are

calculated and simulated with similar step.

5. Figure 3 shows Break-even chart which is made by

calculation result of step 5. This chart tell us picture of

cost profile of Java-Sumatra HVDC Interconnection

System of each alternative and clearly explain us that

LCC of all alternative are built parallel curve without

break even.

6. Pareto charts as shown in figure 4 tell us that Project

cost are dominant cost contributor to the JavaSumatra HVDC Interconnection System, and it also

tell us that ENS cost and FC as probabilistic cost have

contribution to explore hidden cost even it is not

significant compare to Project cost.

7. Refer to Break-even Chart and Pareto Chart

discussed above, it is indicated that the value failure

rates of 0.1114 failures/(year/100 circuit kilometers) or

0.0174 unreliability is only small effect to contribute

LCC of cable system of all alternative discussed.

Based on the fact founded, sensitivity calculation of

unreliability estimated by design (1/38 failure per

year), unreliability based on statistic data (0.0174 [2])

and extended to 0.08 versus probability the system to

meet maximum load (3,000 MW) is conducted. The

result is provided in figure 5.

8. Table 5 shows the result of Effectiveness calculations

that measure reliability, availability, maintainability and

capability; and also present LCCs all alternative which

equal with NPVs of each alternative respectively with

condition that it is simulated at assumption the

unreliability of the HVDC 500 kV Cable system is 0.08.

9. Consider to the results as discussed at step 5 to step

8, it is reasonable if we choose alternative 1 or 2 as a

decided installation with considering to moderate LCC

but low risk for long term. Even alternative 3 has

lowest LCC, it is advised as a second priority to

choose because the probability to meet maximum load

will decrease exponentially related to unreliability of

the HVDC 500 kV Cable system.

10. In case of cable installation system, the decision is

made by choosing the highest value of probability to

meet maximum load and effectiveness. Figure 5 and

table 5 tell us that alternative 1 and 2 which has spare

can be considered as the best to be applied rather

than without spare.

4/6

E1.6

E1.6

No

Alternative

1

2

70.00

100.00

Cost Description

Land Acquisition

Project Cost

500 kV DC of Java-Sumatra Power Interconnection System

Break-even Chart

3

90.00

2,200

500.00

490.00

480.00

500.00

490.00

480.00

c.

(Jawa)

500 kV DC Subm arine Cable (40 km)

400.00

410.00

390.00

d.

220.00

230.00

215.00

75.00

90.00

80.00

200.00

200.00

200.00

50.00

70.00

60.00

12%

12%

12%

f. 500 kV AC Transmission Line

3

Disposal

Discont Rate

Cost (Millions)

2,100

b. Converter Station, Electrode Station, Landing

2,000

1,900

Alt. 1

1,800

Alt. 2

1,700

Alt. 3

1,600

1,500

0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Year

Interconnection System

Disposal

Alt. 3

Alt. 2

Alt. 1

Failure

Alt. 3

Alt. 2

Item

Chance

For

Failure

Component

1 Sumatra Converter #1

2 Sumatra Converter #2

Random #

0.06 0.026086

0.06 0.432784

51032

HVDC

System

Sumatra Submarin

Java

HVDC

Simulated

HVDC

Item Fails

Converter e Cable Converter System

Chance

System

For

Failure

0=Failure

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failure Failure

Failure

1=Success

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

Succes

Success Success Success

Success Success

s

0

1

2 HVDC 500 kV Cable #2 0.0174 0.182256

3 HVDC 500 kV Cable #3 0.0174 0.360583

1

1

1

1 Java Converter #1

2 Java Converter #2

1

1

0.06 0.541774

0.06 0.397868

0

1

0

0

0

1

0

1

0

385

10939

39708

0.0075

0.2144

0.7781

0

0

1

Land Acquisition

No

Simulations # (n):

Yearly

Maintenance

Project Cost

alternative 1

Alt. 1

Alt. 3

Alt. 2

Alt. 1

Alt. 3

Alt. 2

Alt. 1

Alt. 3

Alt. 2

Alt. 1

Alt. 3

Alt. 2

Alt. 1

Alternative 1

No

Cost Description

CFPP

Average Repair Cost

Electric

/Failure

Repair

Simulated

Price

Chance

Time

($Millions/

($/kWh)

For Failure

(hours)

Failure)

Land Acquisition

1

2

$0.00

$500.00

$1,000.00

$1,500.00

$2,000.00

Interconnection System

40

70.00

Project Cost

b.

500.00

Switching Station (Sumatra)

Converter Station, Electrode Station,

Landing Point & Submarine Cable

Switching Station (Jawa)

500 kV DC Submarine Cable (40 km)

c.

d. 500 kV DC Overhead T/L Sumatra (354 km)

e. 500 kV DC Overhead T/L Jawa (110 km)

f. 500 kV AC Trans mission Line

3 Yearly Maintenance

4 Energy not served

5 Failure

6

500.00

400.00

220.00

75.00

200.00

0.029390

0.071152

0.06

1,368

10

0.015

7.24

0.712

0.015

7.24

1

7.96

58.0

0.12

12%

Disposal

50

Total

1,965.00

Discount Rate = i

Future Value = FV

1,965.00

n

n

NPV = (FV/(1+i) )

1,965.00

7.96

57.96

1.12

93.05

7.11

0.62

2,031.19

5/6

E1.6

REFERENCES

to Meet Maximum Load (3000 MW)

90.0%

80.0%

Probability

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

Alt. 1

40.0%

Alt. 2

30.0%

Alt. 3

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

0.0041 0.0117 0.0174 0.0312 0.0625 0.0800

Table 5: Simulation result of system effectiveness

Parameter

Symbol

Formula

Alternative

2

Reliability

Simulated

98.88%

98.80%

98.82%

Availability

Simulated

93.32%

93.32%

93.34%

Maintainability

Simulated

99.10%

98.99%

99.04%

Capability

Simulated

75.02%

72.36%

54.33%

68.60%

66.04%

49.63%

Effectiveness

Eff.

RxAxMxC

LCC

LCC

= NPV

E1.6

5. CONCLUSION

Based on the data, formulas, scenarios, calculation,

simulation of Installation 500 kV of Java-Sumatra Power

Interconnection System using combination technique of

LCCA, effectiveness and Monte Carlo, it has

demonstrated strong correlation among project cost,

failure, maintenance and risk of ENS with financial benefit

and also the risk. It is shown that HVDC installation

especially submarine cable need high cost for project

capital (1.0 million EUR per km) but has very low

probability failure during operation (0.1114 failures/

(year/100 circuit kilometers)). LCC profile of Java-Sumatra

HVDC Interconnection System of each alternative and

clearly explain us that LCC of all alternative are built

parallel curve without break even, it can be concluded that

focus on high quality installation during construction is

more importance than focus on maintenance.

RAMS to analyze Life Cycle Cost on the Operation of

Power Generation. Safety, Reliability and Risk

Analysis: Beyond the Horizon Steenbergen et al.

(Eds) 2014 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN

978-1-138-00123-7

[2] S.H. Karlsdttir, 2013, Experience in Transporting

Energy through Subsea Power Cables: The case of

Iceland, University of Iceland, Reykjavic, Iceland

[3] N. Sinisuka; I. Felani; N.Erdiansyah, 2012, The Use

of Life Cycle Cost Analysis to Determine the Most

Effective Cost of Installation High Voltage Undersea

Cable Bali Strait, Journal of Energy and Power

Engineering 6,IJEPE,2082-2089

[4] R.F. Stapelberg,2009. Handbook of Reliability,

Availability, Maintainability and Safety in Engineering

Design. Springer-Verlag, London, England

[5] D. Sudarmadi, G. C. Paap, L. v.d. Sluis, 2007,

Review of steady state analysis of HVDC

Interconnection of Java-Sumatera, Proceedings of

the

International

Conference

on

Electrical

Engineering and Informatics Institut Teknologi

Bandung, Indonesia.

[6] Barringer, H. P. 2003. A Life Cycle Cost Summary,

International Conference of Maintenance Societies

(ICOMS-2003), Maintenance Engineering Society of

Australia, A Technical of the Institution of Engineers,

Australia

[7] P.

Barringer,

1997,

Availability,

Reliability,

Maintainability,

and

Capability,

Barringer

&

Associates, Inc., Texas, USA

[8] M. Nakamura; N. Nanayakkara; H. Hatazaki; K. Tsuji,

1992, "Reliability Analysis of Submarine Power

Cables and Determination of External Mechanical

Protection", Transactions on Power Delivery, IEEE,

vol.7, 895-902

Maximum Load (3,000 MW) tell us the correlation

between failure rate, reliability and the design of quantity

of cable (with or without spare) and it can be concluded

that cable installation with spare is more low risk.

The application of Monte Carlo simulation gives a great

advantage in handling dependancy of many parameters

and sub-system, but in case of submarine cable it is

needed more and more data statistics collected for more

accurate of the evaluation.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This paper is part of a research study funded by PLN

Indonesia.

6/6

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