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HIV/AIDS affects persons from Sub-Saharan Africa and men who have
sex with men (MSM) in a disproportionate way. This article analyzes
the evidence and the plausibility of anogenital anatomical factors which
may contribute to the HIV/AIDS pandemic in the key populations for
sexual transmission. The etiology of the pandemic is discussed. Direct
and indirect evidence for narrow anogenital anatomy is presented. Two
semi-theoretical arguments for anatomical factors are put forward.
Anogenital anatomy is analyzed in view of Hill's criteria for causation. I
describe how randomized controlled trials and other confirmatory
studies could be designed and discuss the consequences of the
hypothesis. While many contributing factors for the HIV/AIDS
pandemic are well established, direct and indirect empirical evidence,
as well as semi-theoretical arguments, militates for an additional role of
macroscopic anogenital anatomy in HIV key populations. This factor
fulfills Hill's criteria.
2015 Bastian Fischer
_______________________________________________________________________________
a
Contents
1
1.1
4.3
4.4
5
Introduction
Disproportionate HIV spread in key
populations
Explanatory power of behavioral, socioeconomic,
and biological factors
The hypothesis
Evaluation
Direct evidence for anatomical differences
Indirect evidence for anatomical differences
Discussion
An argument from pathological principles and
eliminative induction
An argument from epidemiology and anatomy
against only micro-anatomical biological factors
Hill's criteria for causality
How to test and consequences
Conclusions
Introduction
1.1
1.2
2
3
3.1
3.2
4
4.1
4.2
Further factors, which may be more specific to SubSaharan Africa apart from high STI prevalence and
concurrency, especially the time of sexual debut or
age-disparate relationships [16], seem unlikely to play
an important role both for theoretical reasons and in
view of the evidence [19,34]. HIV stigma and
discrimination are real and harmful now [27] but this
factor cannot explain the initial spread of the virus in
the key populations because, due to the long clinical
latency stage of the infection, it probably happened at
a time when nothing about the disease, its causative
agent and transmission was yet known. The same
holds true for the current high prevalence of HIV in
key populations, which probably maintains the
disproportionate spread in them now but which
cannot explain why HIV disproportionately entered
these groups in the first place. Lastly, HIV seems well
able to leave the African continent given the similar
predicaments of MSM and black persons worldwide
(see above), which renders spaciotemporal
explanatory approaches implausible.
2
The hypothesis
Evaluation
3.1
Why are genetic factors unlikely to play a major role in the SubSaharan African pandemic?
ANOMALY1: 11 Nairobi female sex workers highly exposed to the virus and meeting criteria for HIV
resistance did become HIV+; this could be linked neither to anal sex, sex during menses,
intravenous drug use, sexual violence, medical procedures, contraception method, nor other STIs;
the only risk factor shared by all but one of the women was a reduction of sex work: 9 had stopped
it altogether for at least 2 months for social reasons, none due to illness (4 were entirely
abstinent, 5 had monogamous relationships) continuous exposure to HIV needed to maintain
immunity? probably not:
ANOMALY2: Starting sex work in the 1980s (before pandemic) vs. 1994 (peak of pandemic)
conferred immunity on female sex workers in Nairobi; each year of exposure resulted in a 12-fold
reduction in HIV risk. Risk behavior, STIs, or age could not explain this. The effect of protection
against seroconversion by starting sex work in 1985-1993 vs. 1994 was very large despite the
lack of continuous exposure to HIV when the epidemic was mild or only developing.
Discussion
Socioeconomic and behavioral factors for HIV spread with weak or moderately significant evidence, globally
incoherent, or lacking explanatory power otherwise
Comparable initial spread in general population in Sub-Saharan Africa and MSM worldwide; comparable
prevalence rates in these key populations; but new infection numbers are stable or decreasing in Africa now
while they are on the rise in MSM
further, hidden factors are biological (evolutionary effect less immediate in MSM) unless there are
fundamental differences in the effect of prevention measures in Africa vs. MSM
Neoplasm/Tumor
Circulation/Vascular system
both unlikely for
conceptual reasons
Infection/Inflammation
Non-STIs globally incoherent for key
populations, disproportionate STI spread in
them poorly understood, not established as
causal for HIV spread, most interventions to
reduce HIV infections by reducing other STIs
have failed
Genetics/Biochemistry/Microphysiology
unlikely because of anomalous infection
dynamics in Kenyan female sex workers
Anatomical variant
Trauma
only categories left;
traumatic factors likely
secondary because of
limited evidence for
trauma-inducing
intravaginal practices or
sexual violence as causal
consequences.
4.1
4.3
Fig. 3. An argument from epidemiology and anatomy against only micro-anatomical biological factors.
Narrow anogenital anatomy and HIV spread: Bradford Hill criteria for a causal
association
STRENGTH: roughly a third of gay and
bisexual men and of Black women
have narrow anogenital anatomy
PLAUSIBLE MECHANISM: a
narrow orifice is physically
more likely to suffer more,
more frequent, or deeper
lacerations than a wide orifice
during penetration
ethnicities. In Nigeria, for instance, the highprevalence states and the low-prevalence states reflect
geographic boundaries of ethnolinguistic groups [72]
(p. 181), with the Tiv being hit hardest by HIV and
the Yoruba, e. g., being almost spared [73] (pp. 30-1).
11
evidence:
spread:
Concurrent relationships
Socioeconomic factors,
HIV stigma and
(mechanism unclear)
sexual violence,
discrimination
STIs (interventions failed)
NAA
3.46 0.14
cm
Longitudinally
tension-free
anal caliber
SD
Direct evidence
3.14 or 3.73
cm
MCIC in
AfricanAmerican
women (data
ambiguous)
3.95 0.38
cm
4.66 cm
Mean erect
penile caliber
SD
MCIC in
Caucasian
women
Theoretical plausibility
Disproportionate
HIV spread in key
populations for
sexual
transmission
(MSM and
Black persons)
Anatomy a
novel factor
NAA prevention
methods:
conceivable
Eliminative induction:
unknown factors likely tied
to anatomy and/or trauma
Cultural
Micro-anatomy unlikely to
explain pandemic in all key acceptability:
problematic
populations
Bradford Hill criteria fulfilled
Fig. 5. Summary.
Conclusions
14
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