Gonzales & Suarez 2007 Poverty Reduction at Risk in Bolivia.v1

Poverty Reduction at Risk
in Bolivia
An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate
Change on Poverty Alleviation Activities
COLOFON
Text:
Javier Gonzales Iwanciw (jgonziw@gmail.com)
Pablo Suarez, Red Cross Climate Centre (suarez@climatecentre.org)
Editing:
Giles Stacey, ENGLISHWORKS (stacey@dds.nl)
Layout:
Desiree Dirkzwager, ETC
Cover Design:
Marijke Kreikamp, ETC
March 2007
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This paper was commissioned by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs Directorate
General for International Cooperation (DGIS) under the Netherlands Climate Assistance
Programme (NCAP) and was prepared by Javier Gonzales Iwanciw and Pablo Suarez. The report
is part of a series of country studies in Bangladesh, Bolivia and Ethiopia and a synthesis
report which are available from www.nlcap.net.
The studies were directed by Maarten van Aalst, Danielle Hirsch and Ian Tellam. Christine
Pirenne provided overall guidance and inputs from DGIS. We also gratefully acknowledge the
support and substantive inputs from various people at the Royal Netherlands Embassies in all
three case study countries, in particular Jan Willem le Grand, Michel van Winden and Jannie
Poley. Other people at DGIS who provided inputs include Peter de Vries and Fred Smiet.
Valuable suggestions were also provided by Phil OKeefe from ETC.
CONTENTS
1.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2.
INTRODUCTION
2.1. Objectives of this study
2.2. Methods and activities
3.
CLIMATE RISKS
11
3.1. Overview of climate and disasters in Bolivia
11
3.2. Climate change and variability: Observed trends
13
3.2.1. Temperature rise and glacier retreat
13
3.2.2. Floods, droughts and changes in precipitation patterns
15
3.2.3. Forest fires
18
3.3. Climate change: Projected trends
4.
5.
19
19
20
3.4. Current knowledge on climate change issues in Bolivia: Progress and gaps
21
BOLIVIA AND THE DUTCH COOPERATION
23
4.1. Development challenges and the Dutch cooperation
23
4.2. Overview of DGIS strategy and national policies
24
4.3. Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Bolivia
25
VULNERABILITY OF DGIS-SUPPORTED INITIATIVES TO CLIMATE RISKS
27
5.1. Methodology and risk classification
27
5.2. High risk DGIS initiatives
28
5.2.1. Water and Sanitation
29
5.2.2. National River Basin Program (PNC)
29
5.2.3. Amazonia (PAT)
30
5.2.4. National Institute for Agrarian Reform (INRA)
30
5.2.5. Productive Chains (grape, wood and quinoa)
31
5.3. Medium risk DGIS initiatives

5.3.1.
32
National Service of Protected Areas (SERNAP)
33
5.3.2. Ministry of Education (POMA)
33
5.3.3. Bolivian System of Agrarian Technology (SIBTA)
34
5.3.4. Ombudsman
34
5.3.5. Biocommerce
34
6.
7.
5.4. Low risk DGIS initiatives

National Climate Change Program (PNCC), Capacity Building Ministries
(Environment), UNIR (Conflict resolution), AUTAPO Foundation, MDS
Capacity Building, Technical Education, Bolivian Strategic Research
Program (PIEB), Inverse marketplace
36
CASE STUDIES
39
6.1. Sustainable Production Chains
39
6.1.1. Grape
39
6.1.2. Wood
40
6.1.3. Quinoa
41
6.2. National Institute for Agrarian Reform (INRA)
44
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
47
REFERENCES
49
LIST OF ACRONYMS
53
ANNEX A: Summary of climate variability and change in Bolivia
55
ANNEX B: Summary of proposed methodology for assessing climate risks
59
ANNEX C: Overview of the interviews undertaken during the mission
61
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Evidence of climate change is already very compelling in Bolivia, a country with diverse
landscapes and an already vulnerable population. Changes in precipitation patterns and glacier
retreat resulting from warmer temperatures are affecting the hydrological cycle. Glaciers
effectively buffer stream discharge seasonally. Their continued melting, observed during recent
decades throughout the Andean region (and projected to lead to complete glacier disappearance in
many cases), is increasing variability of stream flows, as well as reducing runoff during dry
seasons. These changes are expected to accelerate, with substantial negative impacts on water
resources and all the systems that depend on them, from natural ecosystems and agriculture to
urban and rural water supply systems.
Rising temperatures are also expanding the spatial range of diseases (notably malaria), increasing
the risk of forest fires, and affecting the growing season of agricultural activities as well as their
sensitivity to pests. Climate change projections based on scientific models are consistent with
recent observations with regards to the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events such
as floods, droughts and landslides that already endanger people, infrastructure and sensitive
ecosystems that are crucial for sustainable development in Bolivia.
Development initiatives (particularly those related directly or indirectly to water resources) face
important climate risks, including direct threats (e.g. investments irreversibly damaged by
droughts or floods), under-performance (e.g. investments that cannot deliver projected benefits
due to inadequate climatic conditions) and maladaptation (e.g. investments that create new
vulnerabilities by promoting activities in disaster-prone areas).
It is important to think of these climate risks in the context of the long-term strategic objectives of
the Dutch cooperation in Bolivia. The Netherlands embassys policies for the country,
summarized in the draft Multi-Annual Plan 2005-2008, highlight the assistance to the Bolivian
government in its institutional strengthening efforts, on all levels, so as to boost efficiency,
effectiveness and transparency of the public sector service delivery. One of the five key trends
identified in this document is the Increased response to the pressure for natural resources use and
the loss of water, soil, forest and bio-diversity (MvT Art. 6 Obj. 1, 2), which is undoubtedly
related to climate change. The Strategic Objectives laid out in response to this trend are (5.1)
The sustainable use of natural resources is widespread, reversing the loss of environmental
resources and increasing access and improving the distribution of natural resources to women and
indigenous groups and (5.2) Social tensions and conflicts related to natural resource use and
distribution will have been reduced significantly.
This report presents an analysis of projects, programs, sectoral and national policies and plans
with DGIS involvement in Bolivia from the perspective of their vulnerability to climate
variability and change. DGIS supports a variety of development activities in Bolivia, with a
portfolio of 16 ongoing initiatives that emphasizes the areas of education, sustainable productive
development, and strengthening of governance and institutions. While many of these
development initiatives face important risks due to climate variability and change, little attention
has been given so far to the threats posed by climate risks to the DGIS portfolio. The issue of
climate change is generally absent from project documentation, resulting in an undesirable
uncertainty about the sustainability of development interventions in the years to come.
Based on review of project documentation, interviews with key stakeholders and a general review
of the scientific and sectoral literature, DGIS-supported initiatives were classified as low risk
(green), medium risk (orange) and high risk (red), depending on their sensitivity to climate as
well as on their relationship to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and national
priorities and policies.
The following DGIS-supported initiatives were identified as high risk:
5
Water and Sanitation: Supports reduction in infant mortality and improvements in health
through the provision of water and sanitation services to about 100,000 people. Most of
the proposed work depends on reliable levels of river flow and groundwater, a dangerous
assumption. Much of the proposed investment may be at risk if climate change trends
continue to exacerbate variability of the hydrological cycle.
National River Basin Program (PNC): Supports water and natural resource management
at the river basin level (local and regional) through capacity building and investment in
projects such as irrigation and risk management. Initiative doesnt adequately consider
climate change, which may result in direct threats to new infrastructure,
underperformance of interventions (particularly risk reduction measures), and the loss of
opportunities for strengthening coping capacities (i.e. adaptation to climate change)
Amazonia (PAT): This project, shared with Brazil and Peru, recognizes uncontrolled
forest fires as one of the major threats, but does not adequately address the issue of fires
originated outside the project areas, nor the higher risks of fires and pest outbreaks
resulting from climate change trends (including higher temperatures and more frequent,
severe droughts)
National Institute of Agrarian Reform (INRA): Supports process of regularization of land
tenure of about 4 million hectares in southern Bolivia, which will result in land titles for
marginalized populations (facilitating their access to credit and investment) as well as the
provision of basic infrastructure and services in affected areas (where land use planning
is almost non-existent). Project fails to mention climate-related risks, and therefore is
likely to result in development that creates vulnerabilities (mostly by encouraging
settlements and investments in disaster-prone areas).
Production chains: Supports the improvement of the competitive advantage of the
clusters of activities involving grape, wood and quinoa (an Andean cereal). Objectives
include raising quality and production standards, higher value-added exports, and
improving income levels of families involved in each sector.
Grape: Project documents identify hail, frost, flash floods and other climate-related
threats as key risks for the grape sector, yet no measures are proposed to manage those
risks (which are expected to worsen in a changing climate).
Wood: Project identifies forest management as one of the key activities, but fails to
address climate-related risks (such as forest fires and pests) which are likely to become
more severe due to climate change.
Quinoa: The goal of adding value to quinoa through organic certification is threatened by
the possible discountinuity of water resources. Additionally, this crop is very sensitive to
droughts, excess rain (fungi) and frosts. These climate-related phenomena may put the
productive and financial components of this project at risk.
DGIS-funded initiatives classified as medium risk include:
Protected Areas (SERNAP): Climate change may drastically affect the health,
distribution and abundance of plant and animal species in ecologically valuable areas.
Ecosystems in the Andean and Amazonian regions of Bolivia are highly sensitive to
water availability, and evidence from Quaternary pollen records indicate that past
changes in water supply induced a dramatic reduction in species diversity.
Ministry of Education (POMA): Floods and landslides threaten new and existing
infrastructure in hazard-prone areas. More importantly, school absenteeism increases
dramatically during and after extreme events (which are more likely under climate
change). The direct and indirect negative effects of increased climate risks pose a severe
threat to the success of education-related MDGs
Agrarian Technology (SIBTA): Objectives include poverty alleviation, and increasing
competitiveness through technological innovation in food production chains (mostly
export crops). Climate change risks may result in underperformance of the proposed
approach. They require targeted innovation in rural production, yet they are not addressed
in the project. This may lead to the adoption of inadequate technologies, excessively
risky farming practices, and other forms of maladaptation. Food security crops and
clusters are neglected. SIBTA constitutes a lost opportunity to support adaptation.
Ombudsman: Objectives include the protection of human rights in conflict situations;
activities include the analysis of potential conflicts and the promotion of preventive
actions. Climate change increases the likelihood of environmental stress (notably
regarding access to increasingly scarce water resources), potentially overstretching the
ombudsman capacity to anticipate and respond to conflicts.
Biocommerce: Bolivian ecological systems are very sensitive to changes in temperature
and precipitation associated with climate change. Therefore, the proposed activities
involving sustainable commercial use of native biodiversity are at risk (particularly given
the fact that no climate change considerations are taken into account in project
documents).
In order to address the high risk and medium risk elements of the DGIS portfolio, it would be
desirable to support within key dimensions of project planning and implementation, an integrated
climate risk management approach. Possible options include a preliminary assessment of climate
change vulnerabilities, as well as working with stakeholders in the development of disaster
management plans and possible adaptation measures for the most climate-sensitive aspects of
each initiative.
Other elements of the portfolio offer opportunities to accelerate adaptation in Bolivia, including
the Capacity Building in Ministries, AUTAPO Foundation and Strategic Research Program
(PIEB) initiatives, as well as the National Climate Change Program, which could be strengthened
to promote the inclusion of climate change considerations into national planning, education and
the productive sectors of Bolivia.
The current approach to development cooperation certainly contributes to these two strategic
objectives. However, many of the developmental gains resulting from DGIS-supported initiatives
in Bolivia are likely to be eroded by a changing climate. Increased frequency and severity of
floods, droughts and other climate-related risks pose a substantial threat to sensitive elements of
the DGIS portfolio. A variety of adaptation measures are available for reducing the vulnerability
of these initiatives to climate change. This report outlines key dimensions of this vulnerability,
and suggest options for dealing with the changing nature of climate risks in Bolivia.
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. Objectives of this study
There is growing evidence that the global climate is changing, in part as a result of human
activities (IPCC 2001). Observed changes in average and extreme climatic values over the past
half century have been systematically reported (Frich et al. 2002), and are largely consistent with
the projected changes indicated by advanced models of the climate system (Kriktev et al 2003).
This global climate change is expected to result in severe impacts on a variety of sectors, notably
water, natural resources, agriculture and health, with particularly negative consequences for the
most vulnerable sectors of the global population (UNDP 2003). The international development
community has been paying increased attention to the issue of climate change and its potential
implications for poverty reduction efforts (Agrawala 2005), with emphasis in the needs and
challenges of adaptation (Huq et al. 2003, Smith et al. 2003).
The Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs (DGIS) has decided to explore the issue of climate
risks in the context of its bilateral development programme for Bolivia. This study, commissioned
by the Environment and Water Department at DGIS, aims to assess (i) how climate change
(including changes in variability and extremes) presents significant risk to projects, programmes,
sector support and national policies and plans supported by DGIS, and (ii) how climate risk
management could be improved.
The report is structured as follows: Section 2 presents the general objectives, methods and
activities of this study. Section 3 discusses climate risks in Bolivia, with an overview of disasters
over the past few decades and a description of observed and projected changes in climate and
related sectors. Section 4 highlights key development issues for the country, including the role of
the Dutch cooperation and the national climate change adaptation policy. Section 5 discusses the
vulnerability of DGIS-supported initiatives to climate risks, classifying the portfolio as presenting
high, medium or low risk, and outlining possible approaches to manage the risk. Section 6 offers
two in-depth case studies: Productive chains (grape, wood and quinoa), and National Institute for
Agrarian Reform (INRA). Section 7 presents conclusions and recommendations.
2.2. Methods and activities

In order to develop the tasks at hand, a review of projects in the DGIS portfolio was conducted to
identify those potentially most sensitive to climate risks. This review consisted of:
Interviews to key stakeholder (including embassy staff, government and NGO leaders,
members of the research community, and staff from international development
organizations).
An in-depth review of project documentation, as well as related materials such as the
DGIS Multi-Year Plan (2005-2008).
An examination of the existing literature and documentation on climate risks, national
policies and programs, and related bilateral and multilateral development initiatives.
The activities outlined above involved two weeks of fieldwork in La Paz and Santa Cruz de la
Sierra, telephone interviews and email exchanges with relevant stakeholders, and compilation of
documents from multiple institutions active in Bolivia. The consulting team analyzed the
information, designed methods for climate risk assessment of the DGIS portfolio (briefly outlined
in Section 5.1), and prepared this final report. The support of the embassy staff and of the ETC
team is gratefully acknowledged.
9
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3. CLIMATE RISKS
3.1. Overview of climate and disasters in Bolivia
Bolivia is a landlocked country situated in the subtropical center of South America. The
topography is highly diverse, with landscapes ranging from the peaks in the Andean region
(reaching over 6,000 meters above sea level) and the Altiplano (high plateau at around 4,000
m.a.s.l.) to the Amazonian rainforest, with immense diversity of agroclimatic zones.
The seasonality of rainfall is well defined in Bolivia, with a rainy season from October to April
precipitation peaks during the warmest months of the year) and a drier season for the rest of the
year. The main causes for seasonality are well known and respond to the interaction of two major
atmospheric features: The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ, a low pressure zone towards
the Amazonas basin that determines the dynamics of rains) and the Subtropical belt of high
pressures in the southern hemisphere (Navarro 2002). Another defining feature of climate in the
western part of Bolivia is the barrier effect of the Andes, which reduces the presence of clouds,
thus the low levels of precipitation in the western part of Bolivia (such as Altiplano and Valleys
along the Andes mountain chain, where annual rainfall can be less than 200 millimeters).
Bolivias physiography and climatic conditions generate a particular mosaic of climate related
risks. The most significant disasters are droughts in the western, mountainous and semiarid part
of the country, and floods resulting in the flat regions eastwards. Other threats include hail, frost,
landslides, snowstorms, extreme cold and hot temperatures, and favorable climate conditions for
uncontrolled forest fires (e.g. high temperatures, winds, and sustained dry conditions).
Fig. 1: Ecological regions in Bolivia (Source: Rivera 1992)
Table 1 summarizes the salient features of the countrys climate risks by biogeographic unit.
These units have been defined based on the ecological regions presented by Rivera (1992, see
Figure 1) and the biogeographic provinces by Navarro (2002). Following Navarro, the Chaco
11
montano ecological region was considered part of the Central valleys biogeographic unit.
Similarly, for the purpose of this study, the Pantanal region has been considered as part of
Chiquitania, and the High Puna region is part of the Altiplano.
The categorization of biogeographic regions into low, medium and high risk for different
climate-related hazards is based on an analysis of the available literature. Annex 1 provides a
more detailed description of these climate risks, including a list of most important recent extreme
events and observed trends (1980-2005) as well as climate change projections (1990-2100) for
each of these biogeographic units.
Table 1: Climate risks by biogeographic unit
Amazonas Rainforest
Forestry sector
Northern Altiplano
Agriculture and dairy
Central and Southern

Altiplano
Quinoa and camelids
Beni Grasslands
Cattle raising
Central and Southern Dry

Valleys
Grape production, water
supply, subsistence
agriculture
Chaco
Water supply
Chapare
Forestry and Biodiversity
Chiquitana
Forestry and Biodiversity
Yungas
Agriculture
An increase in climate-related emergency and disaster situations has been observed during the
past decade in Bolivia (Figure 2), in particular heavy rainfall events, droughts and forest fires. As
12
Infectious
diseases
Forest fires
Snow storms
Hail
Cold Spells
Floods and
landslides
Hot Waves
Projections 1990 2100

Climate change and Variability
(Relevant risks)
Infectious
diseases
Drought
Forest fires
Snow storms
High risk
Hail
Medium risk
drought
Low risk
Cold Spells
Observations 1980 2005

Climate Change and Variability
(Relevant risks)
(Main vulnerable sectors

supported by DGIS)
Floods and
landslides
Hot Waves
Biogeographic units
the next two sections illustrate, climate change is expected to exacerbate some of the risks the
country has to face.
Emergency Situations declared by the government of Bolivia
1930 - 2004
35
32
30
25
20
21
19
17
16
15
12
12
8
10
7
3
19
30
-19
35
19
36
-19
40
19
41
-19
45
19
46
-19
50
19
51
-19
55
19
56
-19
60
19
61
-19
65
19
66
-19
70
19
71
-19
75
19
76
-19
80
19
81
-19
85
19
86
-19
90
19
91
-19
95
19
96
-20
00
20
01
-20
04
Fig. 2: Emergency situations declared during the period 1930-2004 (Source: Rodriguez 2006)
3.2. Climate change and variability observed trends (1980 2005)

Evidence of climate change is already very compelling in Bolivia. Glacier retreat and changes in
precipitation patterns are affecting the hydrological cycle, with substantial negative impacts on
water resources and all the systems that depend on them, from natural environments to urban
water supply systems. Rising temperatures are expanding the spatial range of diseases (notably
malaria), increasing the risk of forest fires, and affecting the growing season of agricultural
activities as well as their sensitivity to pests. Climate change projections based on scientific
models are consistent with recent observations with regards to the increase in frequency and
intensity of extreme events such as floods, droughts, landslides, heat waves and other
manifestations of climate. These extreme events already endanger people, infrastructure and
sensitive ecosystems that are crucial for the countrys development.
Bolivian mountain regions, like other mountain regions of the world, have started to show
symptoms of drastic hydrological changes due to the withdrawal of the smallest glaciers and the
rapid reduction in volume of the major ones (Vincent et al. 2005, Thompson 2000). Tropical
glaciers constitute some of the most sensitive indicators of climate change because of the delicate
energy and water mass balance they embody (Wagnon et al. 1999).
The glacier areas of Bolivia are major providers of water in the country. Besides the fact that the
water contained in glacier reservoirs is used for winter agriculture in the major part of northern
Altiplano and for urban uses in the city of La Paz and El Alto, these reservoirs contribute to
regulate water among the ecosystems, wetlands and ensure current microclimatic conditions.
13
Fig. 3: Chacaltaya Glacier retreat in the Andean region (Source: Ramirez 2005)
Near-surface temperatures have increased substantially over all of the tropical Andes (Vuille et al
2003). Since the early 1980s, recession rates increased by a factor of four in glaciers such as
Cerro Charquini, and the small glaciers below 5,300 m.a.s.l. will disappear completely in the near
future if such conditions persist (Rabatel et al. 2006). Figures 3 and 4 illustrate the magnitude of
the retreat in important Bolivian glaciers. This process is accelerated through a positive feedback
mechanism: Mountain areas that were covered by snow reflected more sunlight before the
melting than when the rock is bare. Enhanced absorption of solar radiation rises surface
temperatures, resulting in increased melt rates (Francou et al 2003).
Fig. 4: Cumulative mass balance of Zongo and Chacaltaya glaciers, 19912001 (source: Francou et al 2003)
14
Changes in meltwater production will exacerbate already critical levels of variability in rivers and
streams (Bradley et al. 2006). Glacier melt contributes up to 35% of the average discharge from
catchments in the Cordillera Blanca. Since glaciers effectively buffer stream discharge
seasonally, continued glacier melting will likely result in more variable stream flow, and less dryseason runoff (Mark and Seltzer 2003).
The warming trend also is manifesting itself in the health sector. As a result of temperature
increases, malaria has expanded its incidence area, particularly with regards to high-altitude areas
that used to be too cold for the survival of the mosquito vector. The National Climate Change
Program (PNCC) has reported a Malaria outbreak in the village of Tuntunani at 3800 m.a.s.l.,
north of the city of La Paz. According to the Human Health expert of PNCC, malaria and dengue
can constitute in major threats for the population in the next 5 to 10 years.
Heavy rains in Bolivia normally occur as of mid-January and continue until February or March.
While precipitation during January and February is becoming more intense, the months of the
initiation of the rainy season (August October) are becoming dryer. Farmers in the Northern
Altiplano Region and in the central valleys of Cochabamba have observed a considerable delay in
the initiation of the rainy season of 30 to 60 days and therefore a considerable reduction in the
crop productivity and outputs (MDS 2002).
During 2001, continual rainfall began as early as December and intensified throughout the month
of January. Daily, heavy rainfall resulted in landslides, causing considerable damage in western
areas of the city of La Paz. A large number of houses were destroyed and families evacuated to
the homes of relatives or to temporary shelters. The table below shows the impacts of this event,
which struck 7 of the 9 departments in the country.
Table 2: Impacts of the rainy season 2001
Departament
Number Provinces
Affected
LA PAZ
9
ORURO
1
COCHABAMBA
3
TARIJA
1
BENI
2
SANTA CRUZ
1
PANDO
1
Type of Disaster
Landslides/Floods
Floods
Floods
Flood and Hailstorm
Floods
Floods
Floods
TOTAL
No. of Families
Affected
4629
450
930
27
837
240
127
7240
Source: IFRC Appeal no: 5/2001, 1 February 2001
A similar situation but with higher intensity occurred during the rainy season of 2006 where
according to the media and the National Civil Defense Institute, more than 34,000 families have
been affected. Torrential rainfall across the country caused rivers to burst their banks, swept away
bridges and triggered mudslides. The departments of Potosi, Beni and La Paz were the most
seriously affected. Rainfall in January over regions in northern Bolivia by far exceeded the
historical average. For example, the highlands region of the country has received 169 percent of
its average annual rainfall during that month (IFRC 2006).
15
In line with findings from most regions of the world, Bolivia seems to be experiencing more
frequent and severe extreme precipitation events (including too much and too little rain). This has
enormous implications for development through multiple mechanisms, in many cases through
surprising compound effects. For example: Investments aimed at reducing illiteracy tend to focus
on infrastructure and capacity building of the education sector. Yet these investments may
become irrelevant if children do not attend school because of climate-related disasters. Figure 8
compares Bolivian drop-out rates public grade schools on a normal year with those of a year
dominated by drought (1997). The proportion of eighth-grade children abandoning school in the
dry year was almost 60%, compared to about 5% in the normal year.
DROP-OUT RATES BY GRADE, 1997 AND 2003
Fig. 8: Drop-out rates by grade in the public schools of Presto (Dept of Chuiquisaca, Central Valleys) during a
normal year (2003) and a drought year (1997). (Source: Ministry of Education 2004)
Another important issue is that of conflicts over natural resources, chiefly access to water for
drinking and irrigation. As the following example illustrates, water scarcity, compounded with
other factors, has already resulted in prolonged disputes in some urban areas. The likelihood of
civil strife is greatest when multiple, simultaneous events increase grievance. Historical evidence
indicates that environmental protest can play a significant role in regime destabilization
(VanDeveer, and Dabelko 1999, Jancar-Webster 1993).
Climate change be a major contributing factor to economic crisis and social unrest, strengthening
the arguments of sectors that challenge authority (Barnett 2003). As pointed out by Suhrke (1993)
manifestations of scarcity can enhance risk of conflict through a variety of mechanisms, including
higher rates of migration in areas where the population is already living at the margins of
subsistence, exacerbating existing grievances such as ethnic divisions. Group-identity conflicts
are likely to emerge with stronger force.
16
Water Wars in Bolivia

More widespread and violent upheavals in 2003 (of a
more political nature) forced the then president to
resign and flee the country.
Some argue that the main cause for the increases in
water rates that triggered these water wars in
Cochabamba and El Alto involved the inadequate
management of infrastructure projects (in particulat
Misicuni), which allegedly lacked transparency.
While that perspective is certainly valid, another
contributing factor was undoubtedly the severe water
stress in both regions. Water was particularly
difficult to obtain during the 1982/83, 1997/98,
1999/2000 and 2002/2003 seasons. Although the
situations in these two cities were different, these
struggles are for the same reason, namely water
availability at fair and transparent prices.
Foto: www.laredvida.org
Protests involving water rate increases and privatization
of water supply led to clashes between demonstrators
and police forces, resulting in two deaths and
substantial damage between January and April 2000 in
Cochabamba. This long campaign was led by an
alliance including the trade union representing
minimum-wage factory workers, peasant farmers,
environmentalists and youth. A similar struggle against
water privatization erupted in the streets of El Alto (a
low-income suburb of La Paz) in January 2005.
Climate change severely threatens water resources,

increasing the risk of violent conflict in Bolivia.
(Irrigation is becoming unsustainable in the central
valley of Cochabamba due to unreliable river flows
and groundwater levels. The city of El Alto depend
on Water from the Tuni Condoriri glacier system
which is being depleted by glacier retreat associated
with higher temperatures.).
Development initiatives are at increasing risk from climate change trends also because of the
climate sensitivity of many productive systems including agriculture and forestry. A variety of
mechanisms play a role in this sensitivity to climate, including:
Changes in productivity: Increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide can be
beneficial to photosynthetic activity, but in many cases this beneficial effect is likely to
be countered by reduced productivity resulting from a variety of climate-related
variables, notably changes in minimum and maximum temperature, insufficient or
excessive water availability at critical times of plant growth, direct damage (e.g. hail,
wind), and changes in the duration of the growth season.
Outbreaks of pests: While pathogens are an integral part of natural and managed
ecosystems, climate change could increase their negative impacts through: (1) direct
effects of temperature and rainfall changes on the development and survival of herbivores
and pathogens; (2) physiological changes in plant and tree defenses; and (3) indirect
effects from changes in the abundance of the pathogens natural enemies. Because of
their short life cycles, mobility, reproductive potential, and physiological sensitivity to
temperature, even modest climate change will have rapid impacts on their distribution
and abundance (Ayres and Lombardero 2000).
Changes in soil aggregate stability: The structural stability of soils is an indicator of their
ability to resist water forces. Recent studies from Bolivia show that soil erodibility
increases with dry conditions, particularly for agricultural land use (Cerda 2000). A
period of drought followed by heavy rains (more likely under a changing climate) could
result in increased levels of soil erosion, with potentially irreversible negative
consequences for the systems productivity.
17
An analysis of the historical record of the relationship between climate and natural resources
highlights the importance of this issue. For example, there is strong evidence that small changes
in precipitation in the Amazon Basin have immediate consequences for the survival of the
Andean cloud forest (Mourguiart and Ledru 2003). Biological indicators in the geological record
of the Bolivian Eastern Cordillera shows that a major change in water supply induced a dramatic
reduction in species diversity. Similarly, late Quaternary pollen records from the southern margin
of Amazonia in Bolivia show that rain forest-savanna boundaries are highly sensitive to climatic
change and may also play an important role in rain forest speciation (Mayle et al. 2000).
Paleolimnological and archaeological records that span 3,500 years from the Altiplano region
surrounding Lake Titicaca demonstrate that the collapse of the Tiwanaku civilization (ca. AD
1100) coincided with periods of abrupt changes in water balance in the drainage basin (Binford et
al 1997, Ortloff et al 1993).
3.2.3. Forest fires
The observed trends in precipitation patterns in Bolivia and elsewhere indicate changes in the
frequency, severity and duration of droughts. Drier conditions can be damaging to natural and
managed forest ecosystems not only because of their impact on plant productivity, but also due to
the increased risk of uncontrolled fires (which are often initiated by actions deriving from human
negligence). This is compounded by the risk-related effects of logging operations which, by
creating labyrinths of roads and tracks in forests, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and
ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by
creating dry, fire-prone forest edges (Laurance 2000).
In the last ten years forest fires in Bolivia have been exacerbated due to drier conditions in
August and September. In August 1999 drought and wind exacerbated forest fires in the
Ascension de Guarayos Provinces, initiated by land habilitation practices, 3000 people loose their
homes and more than 100.000 hectares of forest were affected. In August 2002 an unprecedented
forest fire burned down more than 20.000 hectares of dry forest in the SAMA Biological Reserve
of Tarija in the southern part of the country.
Fig. 5: Vegetation Index (NDVI) of NOAA-AVHRR Difference of the second week of October/2002 and the average
October NDVI for the period 1982-2003. (Source: FAO/ARTEMIS database)
18
In September 2004 the Bolivian president issued a law to declare the Beni department in
Emergency Situation due to more that 1000 fires initiated by land habilitation practices run out of
control due to the high temperatures, drought and strong variable wind conditions. The dense
cloud of smoke, which spread over an area of more than 200.000 Km2 including the mountainous
regions of La Paz and Cochabamba killed two people while hundreds had to be evacuated. In
September 2005 uncontrolled forest fires in Riberalta (North-eastern part of the country) affected
more than 150.000 hectares of the rain forest. During intense el Nio events 82-83 and 97-98 the
western part of Bolivia was severe affected by drought.
3.3. Climate change: projected trends

Scientific and technological developments in recent decades have led to remarkable progress with
regards to our ability to understand and model the climate change process. While several aspects
of model assumptions and parameterization remain somewhat controversial, there is little doubt
that general circulation models (GCMs) can capture the general trends of change in global and
regional climate through a simplified representation of the coupled atmospheric-oceanic system
of our planet as it responds to growing levels of concentration of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. This section describes the main findings regarding projections for Bolivia regarding
(i) temperature rise and glacier retreat, (ii) floods, droughts and changes in precipitation patterns,
and (iii) forest fires. Other projections include increased chances of hailstorms (resulting from the
formation of more convective systems as a result of higher temperatures and increased energy
availability), and extreme temperature events (particularly heat waves).
According to global circulation models, temperature will further increase in the coming years,
due to the further increase in global greenhouse gas emissions. By year 2010 GCMs already show
an increase in mean temperature in the order of 0,5 to 1 C over the whole continent, the increase
of temperature will be more notorious in the Amazonas and in the Andes regions of Bolivia
where for an optimistic policy scenario (450 ppm oc CO2 by year 2050)1 the increase in annual
mean temperature will be in the order of 1,5 to 2 C (see Figure 6).
Fig. 6: Change in Annual Mean Temperature, Year 2050, Scenario WRE 450
450 ppm is the Europe target to maintain temperature increases below 2C by 2100. This optimistic scenario has been
chosen to show that even if the global community were able to achieve this substantial abatement of Greenhouse Gases
possible (relative to the business as usual scenario), adaptation to climate change would still be needed.
19
These trends will surely affect ecosystem productivity. PNCC experts suggest that temperature
increases might impact negatively agricultural production in the eastern tropical and subtropical
regions of the country where crops such as soybean, cotton, rice and sugarcane are already above
their temperature optimums. In the western mountain regions where crops are below their
temperature optimums (potato, maize), temperature increases might enhance crop productivity if
reasonable levels of water availability are ensured.
It should be noted that there appears to be consensus in the scientific community about a crucial
issue for Bolivian climate risks: modeled changes in temperature increase faster at higher
altitudes (Bradley et al. 2004), with enormous implications for water resources, montane
ecosystems and high-altitude agricultural activities. The science supporting these claims is quite
strong, with simulations by Vuille et al (2003) and other scientists realistically reproduce the
observed warming trend as well as the spatial trend pattern (i.e. much larger temperature increase
in the eastern Andean slopes than in the western slopes).
There is considerable support for the idea that the frequency of extreme weather events will
increase over the next century (Katz et al. 2002, Wagner 1999), mostly because of more
availability of energy and moisture in the atmosphere. In particular, intense precipitation is likely
to occur more frequently, and consequently produce more flooding (Penning-Roswell et al.
1996). These perspectives are reinforced by studies based on paleoflood records: A seminal work
conducted by Knox (1993) concluded that small changes in temperature (1-2 C) and changes in
average annual rainfall can result in large changes to flood frequency and magnitude.
Fig. 7: Change in September Precipitation, Year 2050, Scenario WRE 450
General Circulation Models show a slightly increase in precipitation for the major part of the
Bolivian territory for the same policy scenario, by year 2050 precipitation will increase in the
order of 3 to 9 % during the rainy season (December-February) but decrease during the initiation
of the spring and rainy season in the month of September in the order of 3 to 6 % over the major
part of the Bolivian territory and until 9% in the Amazonas region (see figure 7). These outputs of
GCM are in general consistent with the trends observed since 1990 and with the description of the
further shortening and delay start of the rainy season, as described in the previous section.
While there are no studies available for Bolivia, groundwater is also expected to be affected, with
lower water tables on average, and especially during sustained dry periods. There is also a real
risk (although not assessed) to have more frequent water and energy shortages in large and
20
intermediate cities. The metropolitan area of Cochabamba, with a population of about 1.5 million,
is currently experiencing almost continuous water stress. The same is true for other several
intermediate cities in the southern part of the country. As mentioned in section 3.2.2, this is
likely to lead to conflicts.
3.4. Current knowledge on climate change issues in Bolivia: Progress and gaps
Knowledge of climate change trends, impacts and vulnerabilities is limited to some priority
sectors and regions. There is a general institutional weakness of the national meteorological
observation system (particularly at very high altitudes), and very limited participation of Bolivian
researchers in regional and international research networks (MDS 2002(b), Bradley et al 2004). A
major contribution to the development of local knowledge and expertise in this area was the need
to produce the First National Communication of Bolivia to the UNFCCC (2002) which
summarized research carried out between 1995 2001. This study was mainly motivated by the
US country studies and the Netherlands (NCCSAP I) to prepare a first generation of Greenhouse
Gas inventories, climate change scenarios and impacts assessments upon water resources,
ecosystems and agriculture.
Since then climate change research has increased in thematic breadth and methodological depth,
carried out often through collaboration of national and international research institutions
motivated by activities such as the International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) and
International Human Dimensions Program (IHDP), the Interamerican Institute for Global Change
Research (IAI) and the National Climate Change Program (PNCC). In this second generation of
studies the country has put additional efforts to understand the impacts of climate change upon
agriculture, vector borne diseases and ecosystems with particular emphasis on mountain regions.
Water resources have attracted the attention of the international community and two of three
regional GEF projects include climate change as an issue: The Andean Trinational GEF project
deals with the impacts of glacier withdrawal upon water resources and agriculture and the Chaco
Trinational project will explore the linkages among desertification, water management and
climate change in a drought prone area. Those projects will contribute to the understanding of
water resources situation in some of the semiarid of the country. Another GEF-funded project, the
Strategic Action Plan for the Bermejo river, also addressed climate change issues. The other
mayor trend is the integration of climate change perspectives with disaster preparedness and
municipal development promoted by the Netherlands Climate Assistance Program, which will
contribute to the linkages between science, local development and policy making.
Despite this progress, there remain important knowledge gaps involving the impacts of climate
change and possible adaptation measures. Additionally, the above-mentioned studies and the
work produced by institutions like The Nature Conservancy and the WWF are not well known in
the country. The National Climate Change Program has contributed substantially to giving
visibility to this issue, but a lot remains to be done.
Key research questions on climate change highlighted by the stakeholders interviewed include:
Changes in hydrological balance, particularly regarding relationship between high and
low river basins. Implications for disaster risk management.
Changes in relationship between temperature, evapotranspiration, moisture availability
and health of plants and crops. Implications for subsistence and commercial agriculture.
Impact on microorganisms in soil. Implications for ecosystems, forestry and agriculture.
21
22
4. BOLIVIA AND THE DUTCH COOPERATION

With a per capita income of 2900 (PPP 2005), Bolivia is the poorest country in South America.
64.4% of its population is still under the poverty line and more than 37% live with less a dollar
per day. Income disparities are strong: 20% of the low-income population receives less than 4%
of the GDP. Poverty indicators are more severe in rural areas and among indigenous people living
in semiarid mountain regions. Indigenous women in rural areas are most affected by poverty (INE
2001).
According to Gray (2003), by 2015 Bolivia will still be 13% short of its poverty reduction target
mainly due to low economic grow (less that 4% per year) and the inequities in the structure of the
GDP: 83% of the low-income economically active population produce 25% of the GDP and 8,7%
of high income enterprises produce more than 65% of the GDP. Difficulties to achieve PRSP
goals will be stronger in rural areas.
Bolivias dependency on natural resources is still high: Agricultural products and primary
production contribute still with 12,8% to the GDP, yet this production is not enough to satisfy its
food security needs. Two major productive sectors have been created in the last 20 years which
have diversified the traditional mining economy of the country: The natural gas sector (with
reservoirs estimated in 52 trillion cubic meters) and the forestry sector which contributes with
more that 3% of the GDP and with 7% of the employment. The forestry sector, like agriculture, is
highly sensitive to climate. The other two main productive sectors (mining and hydrocarbons),
while not obviously sensitive to climate change, play a significant role within the mosaic of
environmental problems in Bolivia. Mining activities and the uncontrolled use of pesticides have
been the principal causes of pollution in various important watercourses of the country. If, as
projected by climate change models, water becomes increasingly scarce, water resource
management will be crucial for the countrys sustainable development.
4.1. Development challenges and the Dutch cooperation

There is consensus that 20 years of democracy and market oriented economy have lead the
country to relative macroeconomic success but has exacerbated the gaps between different groups
of society, with indigenous and rural populations remaining the most disadvantaged. Bolivia is
still heavily dependent on foreign assistance (about USD 220 million per year).
The Netherlands is the fourth largest bilateral donor in the country. As noted by The Netherlands
Embassy staff, since 1998 the Dutch cooperation in Bolivia has transitioned from a project-based
approach to a more comprehensive, sectoral approach to development assistance, helping the
country to deal with entire sectors, providing funds for capacity building and institutional
development at the governmental level to enable it to fulfill its functions and goals but also
working with partner institutions (NGOs, Universities, Private sectors) in innovations that can
contribute to the learning process and improvement of the sector. A large portion of DGIS
funding for Bolivia has been executed by national agencies and under the principle of ownership:
the country basically decides where those resources have to be invested and in coordination with
other bilateral and multilateral agencies interested to contribute to the same goals and/or sectors.
The Dutch cooperation in Bolivia concentrates in three major sectors: Education, Sustainable
Productive Development, and a broad agenda to help the country to improve governance and
institutions. Three cross-cutting dimensions are encouraged and assessed in this portfolio: gender,
the environment, and indigenous peoples (LIDEMA 2003). Table 3 lists the DGIS portfolio.
23
Table 3: Current DGIS Portfolio in Bolivia

Project and/or Program
Period
Ministry of Education (POMA)

National System of Protected Areas (SERNAP)
Bolivian System for Agrarian Technology (SIBTA)
Amazonia (PAT)
National Institute for Agrarian Reform (INRA)
Production Chains (wood, grape, quinoa)
MDS Capacity Building
National Watershed Program (PNC)
National Climate Change Program (PNCC)
Technical Education
AUTAPO Foundation
Water and Sanitation (UNICEF)
Biocommerce
Bolivian Strategic Research Program (PIEB)
UNIR (Conflict resolution)
Ombudsman
Inverse marketplace
2004 - 2008
2004 - 2016
2002 - 2008
2004 - 2006
2003 - 2006
2003 - 2008
2003 - 2007
2006 - 2011
2004 - 2009
2006 - 2009
2005 - 2007
2006 - 2009
2003 - 2008
2006 - 2010
2006 2009
2001 - 2007
2005 - 2007
Budget
(million USD)
68.2
10.8
10.6
8.0
7.0
7.0
5.5
5.0
4.1
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.7
1.4
1.2
1.0
1.0
DGIS has been supporting the environment sector of the country, providing long term funding for
the Environment Agency, co-funding the National System of Protected Areas (SERNAP),
supporting an international Program of Sustainable Development in the Amazonas, the National
Watersheds Program and the National Climate Change Program, and since 2005 supporting the
development of a biodiversity platform in cooperation with other donors.
In the context of education DGIS has been providing funds and cooperation to help the country
with different aspects of the sector, providing funds for educational infrastructure in rural and
urban areas, but also contributing to the general tasks of the Ministry of Education. DGIS also
supports capacity building, education and training activities of Bolivian NGOs and universities.
DGIS is also supporting legal, institutional and financial frameworks of the country to increase
productivity of selected products in rural areas and provide the means for competitiveness and
income generation. The by DGIS funded activities encompass the consolidation of land tenure in
the Tarija and Chuquisaca Provinces (INRA), the strengthening of the agricultural extension
(SIBTA) as well as institutions that can improve the competitiveness of selected production
chains like the quinoa cluster in the Altiplano region, the wine cluster in the Tarija region and the
wood cluster in the lowlands. Increasing social capital through these initiatives among rural
providers and business entrepreneurs might enhance the response capacity to different risks.
4.2. Overview of DGIS strategy and national policies

The policies of the Netherlands embassy for Bolivia are summarized in the Multi-Annual Plan
2005-2008. This document highlights the determination to assist the Bolivian government in its
institutional strengthening efforts on all levels, so as to boost efficiency, effectiveness and
transparency of the public sector service delivery. One of the five key trends identified in this
document is the Increased response to the pressure for natural resources use and the loss of
water, soil, forest and bio-diversity (MvT Art. 6 Obj. 1, 2), which is undoubtedly related to
climate change. The Strategic Objectives laid out in response to this trend are (5.1) The
24
sustainable use of natural resources is widespread, reversing the loss of environmental resources
and increasing access and improving the distribution of natural resources to women and
Since the development of the strategies outlined above, the country has experienced dramatic
changes in its institutional makeup, affecting not only the priorities of the government, but also
the long term vision which will surely put new challenges to the bilateral cooperation between the
Netherlands and Bolivia. Institutional changes pointed out by Bolivias National Development
Plan (MPD 2006) have have set a scenario where institutional risks are the most remarkable for
DGIS current portfolio. These changes include many new actors at the level of ministries,
reevaluation of the State as an active player in the generations and distribution of wealth,
nationalization of strategic enterprises and control of strategic resources (e.g. gas, mining,
biodiversity) and the difficult agenda that the Bolivian society in general has to accomplish
through the Constituency Assembly. After less than one year in power, it is too early to say
whether the new governmental changes and visions will sustain in the longer term, even those
supported by a relative majority of the population.
Climate change risks cannot be isolated from those major processes which will modify the
institutional structure of the country and therefore enhance adaptive capacity or in contraposition
lead to maladaptation and enhanced risk.
4.3. Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Bolivia

Bolivia signed the UNFCCC convention in 1992 and ratified the agreement 1995. This
ratification led to the constitution of the National Climate Change Program (PNCC) under the
Environment Authority of Climate Change Focal Point (which to date is the Viceministry of
Territorial Planning and Environment). Bolivia ratified the Kyoto in 1999. The National Climate
Change Implementation Strategy (ENI) is the legal instrument to carry out climate change actions
in the country. It has been submitted to the Environment Authority on 2001 and will lead climate
change actions in the country towards 2011. The Strategy recommends an evaluation after five
years of implementation but to date this evaluation has not been initiated.
In 2004, with support from the Netherlands cooperation (USD 4.1 million), the PNCC launched
its Five Year Plan (Plan Quinquenal) to encourage demand-driven climate change research,
formal and informal educational programs, mitigation and adaptation projects at the local level
and to carry out the process of consultations for the National Adaptation Plan2 (PNA). The PNA
has been completed and submitted for its approval to the Focal Point in the early 2006.
The National Adaptation Plan defines the following priorities:
Food Security
Human Health
Water Resources
Forestry Sector and Ecosystems
Human Settlements and Infrastructure
as well as two major cross cutting issues:
Research
Education
Bolivia is not part of the LDC, thus it has not received funds from GEF for its NAPA process
25
In addition to PNA, Bolivia also started a community-based adaptation process in two vulnerable
regions (Titicaca lake region in the Altiplano and Vallegrande region in the central valleys of
Bolivia) funded by the Netherlands Climate Assistance Program (NCAP). Both processes led to
adaptation and are supposed to be complementary, yet even though this understanding is available
within the PNCC staff, this fact is not clearly stated within the PNA.
The major challenge for climate change adaptation is to establish a coherent institutional
framework within the decentralized structure of the country which will be responsible for
carrying out the PNA and implement adaptation measures. The PNCC signed cooperation
agreements with the nine departments of Bolivia, yet those agreements lack of practical means to
encourage the departmental governments to take actions and implement PNA measures. The
second administrative figure promoted by the NCAP project is a Municipality based (bottom up)
process of capacity building and institutional agreements, which tends to be more successful, yet
access to additional financial resources in the context of GEF and formal UNFCCC mechanisms
for capacity building remains a major problem (partly because of the difficulty to increasing the
level of confidence among the different stakeholders and attracting government interest).
26
5. VULNERABILITY OF DGIS-SUPPORTED INITIATIVES TO CLIMATE RISK

5.1. Methodology and risk classification
Based on review of project documentation, interviews with key stakeholders and a general review
of the scientific and sectoral literature, DGIS-supported initiatives were classified as low risk
(green), medium risk (orange) and high risk (red), depending on their sensitivity to climate as
well as on their relationship to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and national
priorities and policies. Annex B summarizes a proposed approach for screening development
initiatives in the context of climate risks and MDGs.
Table 4: Classification of risks to the DGIS portfolio
Climate sensitivity
Relevance to
MDG
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
Classification:
High Risk: Items in the DGIS portfolio with at least one MDG judged to be high
relevance, high climate sensitivity
( )
Medium Risk: Items with at least one MDG judged as either high relevance, medium
climate sensitivity
( ) or medium relevance, high climate sensitivity ( )
Low Risk: Items in the DGIS portfolio that are neither High risk nor medium risk.
27
5.2. High risk DGIS initiatives

Table 5: Summary of elements of the DGIS portfolio classified as High risk
DGIS Project relevancy for the MDG
Water and
Sanitation
UNICEF
National
Watershed
Program
(PNC)
Amazonia
(PAT)
Nat. Inst. for

Agrarian
Reform
(INRA)
Production
Chains
Climate change and variability sensibilities and vulnerabilities
Risk management measures and recommendations /

Opportunities
8. Develop a global partnership

for development
7. Ensure environmental
sustainability
6. Combat HIV/Malaria and

other diseases
5. Improve maternal health
3. Promote gender equality and

empower women
4. Reduce child mortality
Relevance (large, medium, small)

Climate sensitivity (high/red, medium, low/green)
1. Eradicate extreme poverty
and hunger
2. Achive universal primary
education
DGIS
initiative
Most of the proposed work depends on reliable levels of river flow

and groundwater for water supply. This is a dangerous assumption
in the context of climate change. Infrastructure at risk due to
expected increase in frequency and intensity of flooding.
Initiative doesnt adequately consider climate-related risks (such as
expected changes in hydrological cycle), which may result in direct
threats to new infrastructure as well as underperformance of
proposed interventions. Decentralized approach suggests that local
stakeholders do not have knowledge or tools to fully manage
climate risks unless they are clearly included in plan of action.
The project recognizes uncontrolled forest fires as one of the three
principal risk factors in the region, and integrates some
(insufficient) preventive measures within its logic framework. Fires
are expected to occur more often due to droughts associated with
CC. Pest outbreaks expected to increase.
Project doesnt mention hazard-prone areas, and is likely to give
land tenure to families in places with high flood or landslide risk.
Resulting household and community investments will be at risk,
particularly given CC predictions of more intense precipitation.
Grape: Hail, frost and flash floods are key risks for the grape sector.
No measures are proposed to manage climate risks.
Wood: Project identifies forest management as one of the key
activities, but fails to address climate-related risks (such as forest
fires and pests, likely to become more severe due to CC).
Quinoa: organic certification is threatened by the possible
discountinuity of water resources. Crop is very sensitive to
droughts, excess rain (fungi) and frosts. Financial component of this
project may be put at risk due to climate-related phenomena.
28
Integrate disaster risk management into project planning

and development. Assess CC vulnerability of proposed
water sources. Redefine locations based on feasibility of
sustainable provision of services.
Mainstream climate vulnerability assessments into
project planning and development. Integrate climate
change awareness into capacity building efforts at local
and regional level.
Assess sensitivity of region and intervention measures to

climate change. Improve forest fire management
approach. Lessons learnt this might be used in other
projects in the same sector like the wood production
chain.
Develop risk maps and hazards management planning
tools for target areas. Explicitly exclude risk-prone plots
from land title initiatives. Promote relocation of
households already located in harms way. Include
climate risk awareness in capacity building.
Review sensitivity of production chains to climate risks
with emphasis on climate change projections. Assess key
vulnerabilities, and seek to integrate practices that
minimize climate threats or take advantage of
opportunities given by changing climatic conditions,
notably temperature in high altitudes.
5.2.1. Water and Sanitation

Supports reduction in infant mortality and health improvements through the provision of water
and sanitation services to about 100,000 people in the Andean, Chaco and Amazonia regions. The
project document specifies targets relating to MDGs 2, 3, 4 and 7.
The program utilizes low-technology options because of their low cost, easy maintenance and
relatively rapid execution. Sustainability is sought through community participation in the
planning, execution and maintenance. Projects include small-scale water supply (gravity systems
from surface water in the Andes, and manual pumps for groundwater in Amazonia), solar
showers and ecological latrines. Most of the proposed work depends on reliable levels of river
flow and groundwater, a dangerous assumption given trends in climate variability and change.
Direct threats: Much of the proposed investment will be at risk if climate change trends
continue to exacerbate variability of the hydrological cycle. Flash floods and sustained
flooding events in the Andean region can cause damage to structural elements that capture
water from streams, as well as to transport infrastructure (pipes and canals).
Underperformance: The projected changes in the hydrological cycle are expected to result in
higher variability of stream flow, with less water during the dry season. This may have
enormous consequences, with prolonged disruptions of water supply in the Andean region.
Groundwater levels can also drop substantially, potentially rendering manual pumps useless
in projects implemented in Amazonia. This would inevitably result in underperformance,
with this initiative being unable to deliver projected benefits.
Maladaptation: Providing localized water supply and sanitation in areas where people have
no access to such services will result in a reorganization of communities, with families and
productive endeavors becoming dependent on the newly available services. Household
relocation and changes in domestic and productive practices should be expected. This will
result in the creation of new vulnerabilities: if as a result of climate risks the new services
become unreliable or completely ineffectual in certain locations, more people may be
negatively affected.
Recommendation: Implement policies and guidelines that address climate risks in the design
and maintenance of new and existing infrastructures. Ensure sustainability of new services
under climate change conditions.
5.2.2. National River Basin Program (PNC)
Supports water and natural resource management at the river basin level (local and regional)
through capacity building and investment in projects such as irrigation and risk management.
Economic development, ecologic sustainability and social equity and participation are guiding
principles of the integrated management process defined in the strategic plan (2007-2011). An
important component of PNC is the emphasis on constructing management approaches from the
bottom up, with foundations at the local level, paying special attention to the unique natural and
socioeconomic characteristics of the micro-level river and stream basins.
This involves an emphasis in community-level decision making and governance (integration of
multiple local pilot projects into larger-scale watershed management initiatives is expected later).
There are many advantages to this approach, particularly given the current emphasis on
decentralization. PNC includes activities for strengthening local capacities for water management.
While the authorities in the ministry of water are aware of global warming and some of its local
effects so far, there isnt adequate information at their disposal for integrating climate change
projections in the design and implementation of the project. This gap is exacerbated at the local
level, where formal institutions and community leaders involved in the PNC initiative lack the
specific information about that would be necessary for designing sustainable projects.
29
Direct threats: The risk of more frequent and intense floods and landslides poses a severe
threat to new infrastructure as well as new productive endeavors that are expected to emerge
from PNC-supported processes at the local level.
Underperformance: Changes in the hydrological cycle, particularly in the Andean watersheds
most dependent on glacier melting, will result in underperformance of proposed measures
(particularly irrigation and risk reduction measures) for accomplishing the larger objectives of
economic development and ecologic sustainability.
Maladaptation: There current risk reduction measures can generate a sense of security,
encouraging settlements in areas that may remain prone to disasters under a changing climate.
Recommendation: Raise awareness of climate change observations and projections at the
local level in order to ensure that climate risks are adequately considered in the design and
implementation of intervention projects. Support opportunities for strengthening coping
capacities (i.e. adaptation to climate change).
5.2.3. Amazonia (PAT)
The project aims to develop best practices for the management and sustainable use of forest
resources. Major activities are territorial planning, forest fires prevention, and watershed
management. Environmental services of forests are factored in as an outcome of the project.
Project documents explicitly address climate change risks. The project documents recognize that
one of the three principal risk factors in the region is uncontrolled forest fires (together with
illegal logging and trade and the habilitation of new agriculture land). The project integrates
concrete actions to mitigate this impact. However, it does not adequately address the issue of fires
originated outside project areas. Located in the southern Madre de Dios river basin, covering the
departments of Pando (Bolivia), and Madre de Dios (Peru), and the state of Acre (Brazil).
Direct threats: Higher risk of pest outbreaks resulting from climate change trends (see section
3.2.2) may threaten the health of forests, potentially making it impossible to achieve a
sustainable production of wood and other products. The severity of fire risks is expected to
rise substantially according to climate change projections (including higher temperatures and
more frequent, severe droughts).
Underperformance: Even without fires or pest outbreaks, changes in temperature and
precipitation patterns may result in reduced forest productivity, compromising the
achievement of project objectives.
Maladaptation: There is no major risk of creating new vulnerabilities through this project.
Recommendation: Strengthen fire management plans, particularly concerning uncontrolled
fires originated outside of the project areas. Monitor pest outbreaks, and if possible research
the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to projected changes in precipitation and temperature.
5.2.4. National Institute for Agrarian Reform (INRA)
(Note: This initiative is discussed in detail as a case study in section 6.2). INRA supports process
of regularization of land tenure of about 4 million hectares in southern Bolivia, which will result
in land titles for marginalized populations (facilitating their access to credit and investment) as
well as the provision of basic infrastructure and services in affected areas (where land use
planning is almost non-existent).
Direct threats: There are no major direct climate threats to INRA as an institution.
Underperformance: There are no climate risks affecting the land-titling process proposed.
Maladaptation: Project fails to mention climate-related risks as a criteria for defining which
areas should be excluded from the land-titling process. Therefore it is likely to result in new
development that creates very substantial vulnerabilities (i.e. the establishment of new
infrastructure and agricultural production systems in disaster-prone areas such as floodplains
30
and unstable slopes threatened by landslides).

Recommendation: Integration of climate risk issues into capacity-building efforts already
planned. Mapping of hazard-prone areas. Design, implementation and monitoring of land use
restrictions to reduce risk.
5.2.5. Productive Chains (grape, wood and quinoa).
(Note: This initiative is discussed in detail as a case study in section 6.1). Supports the
improvement of the competitive advantage of the clusters of activities involving grape, wood and
quinoa (an Andean cereal). Objectives include raising quality and production standards, higher
value-added exports, and improving income levels of families involved in each sector.
Grape: Grapevines (and wine quality) are very sensitive to seasonal climate conditions.
Project documents identify hail, frost, flash floods and other climate-related threats as key
risks for the grape sector, yet no measures are proposed to manage those risks (which are
expected to worsen in a changing climate).
Wood: Project identifies forest management as one of its key activities, but fails to
address climate-related risks.
Quinoa: Project outlines four components: Financial (e.g. microcredit), capacity building
(e.g. training), technological (e.g. innovative tools) and marketing (e.g. promote exports).
Quinoa is very sensitive to droughts, excess rain (fungi) and frosts.
Direct threats: Floods can destroy grapevines, with long-term consequences. A more erratic
climate in the Altiplano may threaten the sustainability of quinoa production. Climate change
will increase risk of pests and forest fires, threatening the forest sector.
Underperformance: For grape, the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties
and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. Pests and infections currently
limited by winter cold will expand their ranges to higher altitudes, affecting grape production.
Disruptions in output caused by droughts, pests and other climate-sensitive factors trigger
discontinuities in the production and marketing of products, reducing productivity and
reliability, with substantially negative consequences in the financial health of the sector. For
wood, climate factors may reduce forest productivity. Due to changes in soil aggregate
stability, a dry period followed by heavy rains (more likely under a changing climate) could
result in increased levels of soil erosion, with potentially irreversible negative consequences
for the system. For quinoa, the goal of adding value to the production chain through organic
certification is threatened by the possible discontinuity of water resources. Additionally,
inadequate rains are already a main cause for credit default among farmers. A more variable
climate may make it harder for farmers to access credit, reducing their access to inputs and
therefore the expected outcomes of the project.
Maladaptation: Unless abrupt climate change renders these productive chains totally
unsustainable, there is no major risk of creating new vulnerabilities through this project.
Recommendation: Explicit recognition of the need to learn about the changing nature of
Bolivias climate and its implication for these production chains. Ensuring that the locations
chosen for investing in grape, wood and quinoa will offer sustained opportunities for
production. Monitoring of pests. Research aimed at assessing the vulnerability of these chains
to climate-related threats, mainly pests. Indirect forms of adaptation include financial
mechanisms, such as weather insurance and price insurance, to improve capacity to cope with
extreme events. For wood, design of comprehensive fire management plans. For grape,
selection of varieties that are most suitable for current and projected climatic conditions. For
quinoa, explore possibilities of adapting crop varieties to other arid and semiarid regions of
the region and the world threatened by climate change to expand choices for food security
strategies.
31
5.3. Medium risk DGIS initiatives

Table 6: Summary of elements of the DGIS portfolio classified as Medium risk
Ministry of
Education
(POMA)
Bolivian System
for Agrarian
Technology
(SIBTA)
Biocommerce
Ombudsman
Climate change and variability sensibilities

and vulnerabilities
Risk management measures and recommendations /

Opportunities

for development

other diseases
sustainability

empower women

and hunger
National System
of Protected Areas
(SERNAP)

education

Climate sensitivity (high, medium, low)
DGIS
initiative
Climate change is not explicitly mentioned in the

planning document, even though it may
drastically alter the health, distribution and
abundance of plant and animal species in
ecologically valuable areas.
In rural areas more that 50% of the schools dont
have access to water and sanitation, which
increase the risk of infectious diseases. Climate
change can impact the livelihoods of vulnerable
population and therefore reduce their capacity to
access and be maintained in the school.
Climate change is not considered in the project,
not as a direct risk factor within the production
chains nor as an indirect risk factor because of its
impacts upon the complementary services (credit
and insurance, infrastructure, etc).
Bolivian ecological systems are very sensitive to
changes in temperature and precipitation.
Proposed activities involving sustainable
commercial use of native biodiversity may be at
risk. No climate change considerations are taken
into account in project documents
Possibility of conflict driven by environmental
causes and allocation of natural resources
(notably water), which can be exacerbated by
CC.
32
Planning of buffer zones, bio-corridors and municipal areas should

take into account the possible impacts of climate change.
The POMA suggest the need to consolidate the organization of

educational clusters and networks with complementary services
taking into account demographic, lingual and logistically factors and
Cluster Educational Projects (PEN) Network projects (PER) and for
indigenous projects (PEI). This provides a good opportunity for
climate change and climate related educational projects in rural
areas.
Promote research and extension services for risk management and
climate adaptation. Ensure sustainability of complementary services
such as long and short term credit, agriculture insurance, road and
communications infrastructure, energy, food storage facilities, and
other indirect services like adult and technical education.
Assess vulnerability of targeted species and proposed resource
management approaches to climate variability and change.
Taking into account the possibility of major water stress situations

driven principally by water contamination and water shortages due
to decrease in rainfall, here is a clear need to forecast and prevent
climate driven social conflict situations.
5.3.1. National Service of Protected Areas (SERNAP)

The objectives of the project include reducing extreme poverty and ensuring the sustainability of
the environment through the conservation of natural and cultural heritage within the protected
areas and their surrounding, as well as contributing to local and national economic and social
development through alternative and sustainable business. Major activities include the
consolidating mechanisms for managing biodiversity, enhancing connectivity of protected areas
through buffer zones and biocorridors and the involvement of the municipal and departmental
protected areas in the System. SERNAP has been supported by a basket fund (GEF, GTZ, the
Netherlands, Swiss among others) and is currently undergoing severe institutional changes.
Direct threats: Climate change may drastically affect the health, distribution and abundance
of plant and animal species in ecologically valuable areas. Ecosystems in the Andean and
Amazonian regions of Bolivia are highly sensitive to water availability, and evidence from
Quaternary pollen records indicate that past changes in water supply induced a dramatic
reduction in species diversity. Protected Areas will be impacted by higher risk of drought,
pests and forest fires.
Underperformance: SERNAP may not be able to ensure the conservation of some fragile
ecosystems and endangered species because of climate change.
Recommendations: Promote research on the impacts of climate change upon the Protected
Areas System and its biodiversity, through collaboration between SERNAP, NGOs, academia
and other stakeholders. Planning of biocorridors and buffer zones need to take into account
climate change considerations.
5.3.2. Ministry of Education (POMA)
The objectives of the program are to build capacity within the Ministry of Education, to reduce
the barriers for access and permanence of the population to a good quality education and the
promotion of a multicultural and bilingual education. The Multiyear Operative Program 2004
2008 (POMA) articulates different levels, areas and modalities of the National Education System.
Direct threats: Floods and landslides threaten new and existing infrastructure. According to
government staff, direct threats on educational infrastructure are low. However, there are no
specifications for risk management in school construction and maintenance.
Underperformance: School absenteeism and drop-out rates increase dramatically during and
after extreme events (see Figure 8). Droughts have the largest impact, and are projected to
become more frequent and severe under climate change, particularly in the central valleys of
Bolivia. The direct and indirect negative effects of increased climate risks pose a severe threat
to the success of education-related MDGs.
Recommendations: Integrate hazard management considerations in the guidelines for
construction of new educational facilities. Monitor climate-related absenteeismoa nd drop-out
rates and, if necessary, support strategies to address root causes (i.e. nutrition deficit). The
POMA suggest the need to consolidate the organization of educational clusters and networks
with complementary services taking into account demographic, lingual and logistically
factors and Cluster Educational Projects (PEN) Network projects (PER) and for indigenous
projects (PEI). This provides a good opportunity for climate change and climate related
educational projects in rural areas.
33
5.3.3. Bolivian System of Agrarian Technology (SIBTA)

The objectives include poverty alleviation through income generation activities, increasing
competitiveness though technological innovation in food production chains (mostly export crops),
and contributing to the conservation of genetic resources. Activities include the facilitation of
primary production, food storage, food processing and market participation within prioritized
production chains. To date in a critical situation of institutional change SIBTA funds reach more
than USD 60 million constituted by an IDB loan of 34 Mio, 10 Mio from the Bolivian State and
20 Mio Basket Fund (Holland, DFID, COSUDE, GTZ).
Direct threats: There are no major direct climate threats to SIBTA as an institution.
Underperformance: Climate change is expected to change precipitation and temperature
patterns, and therefore requires targeted innovation in rural production. Yet this is not
addressed in the project, and may lead to the adoption of inadequate technologies, excessively
risky farming practices. There is therefore a risk of underperformance of the income
generation and poverty reduction targets of this initiative.
Maladaptation: SIBTA has put major emphasis on export-oriented productive chains, whereas
food security crops and clusters have been neglected. If crops selected for promotion are not
able to cope with climate change, this institution may lead Bolivia towards an export-oriented
approach that is not sustainable.
Recommendation: Integrate strategies aimed at making Bolivian agriculture more resilient to
climate change (e.g. research on climate sensitivities of different crop varieties, particularly
the drought-resistant ones like quinoa and amaranto). SIBTA offers an opportunity to support
adaptation in the subsistence farming sector, which would be in line with the food sovereignty
approach of the current government.
5.3.4. Ombudsman
Objectives include reducing the violation of human rights of more vulnerable population, and
protecting human rights in conflict situations. Activities include the implementation of a social
monitoring system analysis of potential conflicts and the promotion of preventive actions. This
initiative has received support through multiple donors (Netherlands, Canada, COSUDE,
Denmark, Sweden, Belgium and UNDP).
Direct threats: there are no direct threats related with climate change.
Underperformance: Environmental cases have increased in the last ten years related with
water contamination and privatization of water services. Climate change increases the
likelihood of environmental stress (notably regarding access to increasingly scarce water
resources). Therefore, climate risks may overstretching the ombudsman capacity to anticipate
and respond to conflicts.
Recommendation: Integrate a climate dimension to the ombudsmans work, with particular
attention to the monitoring and analysis of critical social systems sensitive to water stress and
other environmental resource scarcity situations.
5.3.5. Biocommerce
Bolivias diverse and rich ecological systems are not generating substantial economic benefits for
the country and its people. This project aims at reducing poverty and promoting sustainable
development, generating economic benefits through the commercialization of products and
services derived from the native biological resources. The biocommerce initiative involves
substantial investment in institutional dimensions (e.g. legal framework, financial support,
information systems, capacity building). About one million USD is dedicated to the development
of productive chains (e.g. orchids, reptiles for meat and skin). The project document, in its
34
discussion of project feasibility, identifies sociopolitical instability, market concerns and other
issues as potential threats. Climate risks are not mentioned (reflecting the assumption that the
natural system is stable). Yet ecological systems are very sensitive to changes in temperature and
precipitation associated with climate change.
Direct threats: As discussed in section 3.2, climate phenomena may threaten the health of
species and ecosystems through multiple mechanisms. Certain species of commercial value
(notably orchids) are unable to withstand events such as drought and extreme temperatures
(which are more likely to occur in the coming decades). Therefore, the proposed activities
involving sustainable commercial use of native biodiversity can be at risk.
Underperformance: Environmental degradation associated with climate change may impair
the productivity of ecosystems and of extremely climate-sensitive species. As a result, the
economic benefits of the project may turn out well below expectations.
Recommendation: Assess the feasibility of different productive chains considering their
capacity to cope with climate variability and change. Give preference to the sustainable use of
biological resources that are more resilient to climate threats.
35
5.4. Low risk DGIS initiatives

Table 7: Summary of elements of the DGIS portfolio classified as Low risk
National Climate
Change Program
(PNCC)
Capacity Building
Ministries
(Environment)

and vulnerabilities
This initiative is of course most relevant for

tackling climate risks. While PNCC in itself is
not directly vulnerable to climate change, its
work may be negatively affected if the full
range and depth of CC threats is not adequately
captured.
Some aspects of capacity building may lead to
undesirable outcomes if climate risks are not
adequately addressed by government
initiatives.
UNIR (Conflict
resolution)
Climate-related conflicts, which are not

explicitly mentioned in project, could increase
under a changing climate.
AUTAPO
Foundation
Some of the aspects of the curricula proposed

for the Tarija and Potos Universities may
become obsolete under a changing climate.
MDS Capacity
Building
Technical
Education
Risk management measures and recommendations / Opportunities

for development
sustainability

other diseases

and hunger
education
empower women
DGIS
initiative
Aim is to build capacity among the

governmental institutions responsible for the
environment. With climate change, MDS will
probably have to deal with more environmental
problems, lowering the performance of other
developoment aspects they are in charge of.
Not directly threatened by climate risks.
36
Initiative should be strengthened to include climate change considerations

into national planning, education and the productive sectors of Bolivia.
Better articulation with national, regional and global institutions could
accelerate the development of vulnerability assessments and adaptation
measures in Bolivia.
Since most environmental initiatives have some level of sensitivity to
climate variability and change, it would be desirable to mainstream
climate risks into capacity building efforts for the government sector. The
recommendations outlined for other DGIS projects in Bolivia can provide
good examples on how to conduct biodiversity-, forestry- and agriculturebased businesses taking into account CC and climate risk management
considerations.
UNIR could work in climate-related resource allocation areas that may
result in conflicts. Ideally there could be a monitoring system to anticipate
areas and sectors where conflict is likely to develop in the near future,
facilitating dialogue before the situation escalates.
Changes in the curricula could encourage adaptive capacity for training
new professionals to be able to tackle the challenges of a changing world.
Inclusion of vulnerability assessment and risk and adaptive management
within educational programs at all levels.
To help the National Climate Change Program, which is part of the
Viceministry of Territorial Planning and a DGIS funded activity to take
active part in the major tasks of the Viceministry of Territorial Planning
and the Viceministry of Biodiversity and Forestry Development.
A program like this might be also used for training certain groups of civil
servants specialized in natural disaster prevention, attention and recovery.
Bolivian Strategic
Research Program
(PIEB)
Inverse
marketplace

and vulnerabilities
Risk management measures and recommendations / Opportunities

for development
sustainability

other diseases

and hunger
education
empower women
DGIS
initiative
CC does not appear within the themes of PIEB,

which conducts research based on the demands
of the civil society. Climate-related sectors may
need attention.
Proposed events are not threatened by climate
risks, except perhaps for potential damage
caused by disasters on market venues.
37
Strategic research tools could certainly improve Bolivias capacity to

adapt to CC and better manage climate risks. Mainstreaming climate
considerations in this project can lead to important synergies with other
sectors and initiatives.
Initiative offers opportunity for reducing cost of risk reduction initiatives
that involve purchases of large stocks: Inverse marketplace events could
share info about adaptation needs, and stimulate competition and
productivity.
38
6. CASE STUDIES
In order to provide a deeper understanding of how climate risks threaten development initiatives
supported by DGIS, this section discusses in detail two of the high-risk elements of the DGIS
portfolio: Sustainable production chains and National Institute for Agrarian Reform. While other
high-risk projects would probably have allowed for richer case studies, these ones were chosen
because of their less-than-obvious, perhaps surprising and potentially severe sensitivities to
climate change, in order to illustrate the complexities and subtleties of the relationship between
climate risks and development initiatives.
6.1. Sustainable Production Chains

6.1.1. Grape
The southern regions of Bolivia are suitable for production of grape and related products,
including wine and singani (a Bolivian drink distilled from Moscatel wine). The departments of
Tarija and Chuiquisaca are the most productive, and have a substantial potential for growth: it is
estimated that the region could expand its area destined to grape production from the current
levels of 2,500 hectares to about 8,400 hectares in ten years. Annual sales reached USD 24
million ( 25% grape, 30% wine, and 45% singani). Exports were of about USD 100,000 mostly
to Peru, North America and Europe. National demand for grape-related products has substantial
growth potential, and the marketing potential of Bolivian wines is exceptional, especially if
emphasizing the high altitude nature of this winery, which is based at 1,500 to 3,000 meters
above sea level (compared to less than 500 m.a.s.l. for most other wineries in the world).
According to enologists, altitude gives higher concentration of flavors, aromas and flavonoids
(antioxidants) to the product.
One of the problems faced by the grape sector of southern Bolivia is the lack of adequate
techniques for improving production and coping with climate risks such as frost, hail and flash
floods (an estimated 26% of losses in the wine sector are due to hail alone). Other problems
include lack of access to credit and weak institutional framework.
The objective of this initiative is to improve the quality, production standards and marketing of
grape and related products from small- and medium-scale production units, expanding sales in
domestic and international markets. The ultimate goal is to improve income levels of families
involved in this sector. About 87% of the rural population of the two departments (over 150,000
people) are unable to meet their basic needs according to the 2001 census.
Even though climate factors are identified in the project document as one of the main causes of
risk in the grape production chain, the proposed activities do not mention explicitly any measures
to manage climate-related hazards. The Technology and Quality component addresses a variety
of dimensions of this sector (from research on the properties of highaltitude wines to reduction
of production costs and standardization of quality for export products, but no assessments or
measures to deal with hail, frost, flash floods, soil erosion and other climaterelated risks.
Additionally, it should be noted that disruptions in the plants caused by climate trigger
discontinuities in the production and marketing of products, reducing productivity and reliability,
with substantially negative consequences in the financial health of the sector.
The issue of climate change is not mentioned at all, even though it may affect the frequency and
intensity of these very direct risks, as well as grapevine pest outbreaks, impacts health of workers
and their families, and damage related infrastructure through floods and landslides. Little is
known about how climate change may threaten this development initiative in southern Bolivia.
39
By contrast, there is a substantial body of literature from developed countries exploring the
relationship between climate change and the grape production chain, particularly regarding wine.
Grapevines are typically grown in regions and under conditions that are considered narrow for a
specific cultivars optimum quality, ultimately putting them at a greater potential risk from
climatic variability and change. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices
contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a
significant role in quality variations (White et al. 2005).
An analysis by Jones et al. (2005) reveals that, on average, most wine regions in North America
have experienced warmer growing seasons, driven mostly by changes in minimum temperatures,
with greater heat accumulation, a decline in frost frequency that is most significant in the spring,
earlier last spring frosts, later first fall frosts, and longer frost-free periods. The warming trends
will allow Vitis vinifera to thrive in more poleward locations than it does today. Many of these
trends may have been beneficial to grape growing and wine production with the corollary that
some areas now ideal for a given cultivar will cease to be so (for regions producing high-quality
grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will
exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties
and wine styles will become progressively more difficult). Additionally the expansion of
favorable conditions will likely result in more production areas, and therefore more supply and
lower market prices.
There are other climate change risks to grape production. For example, pests and infections
currently limited by winter cold will expand their ranges poleward and to higher altitudes,
potentially affecting grape production areas (Tate 2001). Shifts in rainfall patterns are also
expected to change continuously, threatening water supply sources (particularly relevant for areas
that depend on irrigation schemes). A significant rise in the atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentration, is changing the texture of oak used for wine barrels and may be changing the
components or their proportions in ripe grapes.
Options to address the risks discussed above include first of all a more explicit recognition of the
need to learn about the changing nature of Bolivias climate and its implication for the grape
production chain. It is indispensable to ensure that the locations chosen for investing in grape
production chains will offer sustained opportunities for production. Therefore, siting of
productive enterprises should pay thorough attention to avoiding hazard-prone areas (such as
floodplains or steep slopes in unstable soils), as well as carefully selecting the grapevine varieties
that are most suitable for current and projected climatic conditions.
Possible additional options to manage climate risks include:
Monitoring of pests, and organic approaches to pest management
Cloud seeding to prevent hailstorms
Adequate selection of irrigation schemes
Financial mechanisms, such as weather insurance and price insurance, to improve capacity to
cope with extreme events
6.1.2. Wood
The purpose of this component is to strengthen the value chain in the wood sector through an
improved and expanded access to markets by indigenous populations linked with small- and
medium-sized companies. 48% of Bolivias area comprises of rainforest (53.6 million hectares, of
which 28.7 million are dedicated to permanent forestry production, and 8.5 million are
sustainably managed). In 2004, export of forestry products was USD 145 million, mostly wood
and nuts. According to CEDIB, Bolivias export of certified (i.e. high value added) wood
40
products could reach USD one billion in ten years, generating 200,000 new jobs. Increases in
productivity have led to a growth in exports of over 25% during 2003 and 2004.
This initiative aims at improving access to certified wood for local businesses, as well as
promoting the generation of sustainable incomes for indigenous communities. One aspect of this
project is the strengthening of forest management practices, but most of the work is dedicated to
market-related activities such as developing business skills at the community level and the
identification of weaknesses in the value chain of wood. Proposed monitoring and evaluation
activities include aspects of gender and community decision making.
The project documents indicate that stakeholders have identified three major threats for this
initiative: lack of experience in formal business practices, need for more supply of certified wood
products, and limited links to markets. There is no adequate indication of how the project will
deal with the growing threat posed by uncontrolled forest fires originating outside of the area
managed, a risk that is expected to grow under a changing climate. Additionally, many tree
species are sensitive to relatively small changes in precipitation and temperature, both through
limitations inherent to their physiological makeup and through vulnerability to pests. Little is
known about these issues in the Bolivian rainforest, but experiences from other areas indicate that
the risks posed by climate variability and change to sustainable forestry production can be
substantial.
In some cases, such as North America and parts of Eurasia, climate change may increase
productivity. As noted by Sohngen and Sedjo (2005), this regional increase in productivity could
reduce timber prices globally. Yet, for the case of Bolivia, changes in temperature, precipitation
and stream flow can have enormous implications for forest health. As highlighted in section 3.2.2,
forest ecosystems are very sensitive to climate variability and change, mostly through three
mechanisms: (i) Changes in productivity resulting from changes in minimum and maximum
temperature, insufficient or excessive water availability at critical times of plant growth, direct
damage (e.g. hail, wind), or changes in the duration of the growth season; (ii) Outbreaks of pests
resulting from the direct effects of temperature and rainfall changes on the development and
survival of pathogens, physiological changes in plant and tree defenses, or indirect effects from
changes in the abundance of the pathogens natural enemies, and (iii) Changes in soil aggregate
stability: a dry period followed by heavy rains (more likely under a changing climate) could
result in increased levels of soil erosion, with potentially irreversible negative consequences for
the systems productivity.
As noted in section 3.3.3, the incidence of forest fires has increased substantially in Bolivia over
the recent decade. Climate projections indicate a likely increase in this risk: The shortening of the
rainy season has as a complement the lengthening of the dry season, which is more favorable for
forest fires. Studies developed for other regions suggest that increases in the length of the fire
season in a changing climate constitute a major threat for forest ecosystems (Wottom and
Flannigan 1993). Additionally, forest fire regimes are expected to respond rapidly to global
warming (higher temperatures favor the development of uncontrolled fires), with the potential to
overshadow the direct negative effects of climate change on species distribution and migration.
41
Forest Fires and Climate Change

Over the last ten years changing climate conditions
have exacerbated forest fires with direct threat upon
protected areas , indigenous and community land and
forestry concessions located far from the places
where fires were initiated.
According to the Forest Fires Early Warning System of

the Forest Superintendence, more that 1.5 million
hectares of forest and savanna will be burnt every year
for land habilitation and grass management purposes.
In the last ten years forest fires have been

exacerbated due to drier conditions in August and
September. In august 1999 drought and wind
facilitated the development of forest fires in the
Ascension de Guarayos Provinces, initiated by land
habilitation practices. 3000 people lost their homes
and more than 100.000 hectares of forest were
affected. A similar situation occurred during the
years 2004 and 2005 in Santa Cruz and Pando.
Climate change is expected to result in more
conducive conditions for forest fires, mostly through
higher temperatures and prolonged droughts.
Foto: www.boliviahoy.com
The key recommendations for addressing climate risks on the wood production chain are on one
hand the design of comprehensive fire management plans; and on the other a solid research
program (including systematic monitoring) aimed at assessing the vulnerability of different
species to climate-related threats.
6.1.3. Quinoa
Quinoa is a native grain with remarkable nutrition properties. It is cultivated under traditional
farming systems in the extremely dry Bolivian Altiplano (2,500 4,000 m.a.s.l) with an annual
precipitation of 150 to 300 millimeters per year and mean temperatures of 5 to 14 C. More than
70,000 small farmers are involved in the production of approximately 25,000 metric tons per year
of the product. The farming area has been growing in the last 10 years to a sustained level of
35,000 Has. Quinoa implies 55 to 85% of the family income in the southern Altiplano and its
contribution to family income is more evident in families leaded by women with little livestock.
This productive chain reports more than USD 5 million in exports, with substantial potential for
growth, both of the grain and of value added products such as cereal bars.
The Netherlands provides USD 4 million over five years for financial services, training,
technological improvements and export support. About half of the funds are destined to the
financial component, favoring innovative tools such as microcredit for subsistence farmers. The
technological component aims to improve all aspects of the production chain, from tillage and
planting to harvest and value-adding processes.
Changes in precipitation patterns constitute the most important climate change risk for the quinoa
production chain. Production is very sensitive to climatic conditions, notably rainfall and frost.
The table in the box below compares the yields in good and bad years of the Municipality of
Chipaya in the central part of the Bolivian Altiplano. Insufficient or excessive rains (e.g. more
than 300 millimeters per year) can affect the health of the plant by affecting its growth or the
impact of pests, mostly fungi. Additionally, the difficulty to ensure crop yields under variable
climatic conditions is one of the critical factors influencing creditors perception of quinoa as a
42
risky endeavor and thus the difficulty of farmers to access credit (inadequate rains are a main
cause for credit default among farmers).
Quinoa in a changing climate
Quinoa Production in the Municipality of Chipaya

Quinoa Production (quintals)
Ayllu
(region)
Good Year
Bad Year
Aransaya
222.75
55
Manasaya
312
120
Vistullani
10
Ayparavi
102
45
Total
646.75
222
Source: Naturaleza y Comunidad 2006

The crop is highly sensitive to climate variations. Small
changes in temperature and precipitation can reduce
productivity by 60 to 70%. The table above shows farmer
crop productivity estimates in the central Altiplano region
of Chipayas. Climate change is expected to exacerbate
climate risks for quinoa in the high-altitude Altiplano
region.
Quinoa is a good source of protein and the government

of Bolivia is willing to use the cereal as a source of
protein for children in the schools. Give the fact that
the cereal can grow blow 300 mm of yearly
precipitation, this cereal is a very important source of
germplasm for arid and semiarid regions.
The risks associated with more extreme precipitation events can also affect the quinoa production
chain through less direct mechanisms. For example, organic certification (a key element for
adding value and appealing to foreign markets) requires demonstrable reliability of the crops
water supply. A changing climate is expected to threaten the stability of the hydrological cycle in
the Altiplano region, posing a significant threat to the organic certification process.
Severe storms constitute a second risk factor. The sustainability of the crop depends on the
availability of camelid cattle which is almost the only source of organic matter for soil; during
winter 2002 a severe snow storm killed more that 20.000 animals in the region, depriving quinoa
crops from the fertilization effect of llama and alpaca droppings. This event affected the
livelihoods of more than 3000 families. Cold spells are another risk factor: in some cases they can
destroy the whole crop, although farmers mitigate this factor by planting a considerable part in
the slopes (where frosting is less likely).
One of the principal recommendations for this project is to encourage DGIS and other interested
partners to support research aimed at assessing climate vulnerability and production rates of
quinoa under different rainfall and precipitation conditions. The main purpose should be to ensure
sustainability of crop production under changing climatic conditions.
Furthermore, a solid research endeavor would enhance the possibilities of adapting quinoa crops
to other arid and semiarid regions of the region and the world threatened by climate change. A
DGIS-funded program on Quinoa for in situ and ex situ conservation of germplasm can play a
significant role. Similarly, an integrated assessment of how to include quinoa as a main crop
could expand choices for food security strategies.
43
6.2. National Institute for Agrarian Reform (INRA)

The objective of this initiative is to support the regularization of land tenure of almost 3 million
hectares in the Department of Tarija and 1 million hectares in Chuquisaca (focus is on the wine
region of southern Bolivia, where growth pressures and investment needs require legal security
on land tenure). This project involves analysis of current and potential occupation of land,
conflict resolution, legal processes for land title, and strengthening of the registry of deeds
(sistema de catastro). Two approaches are envisioned: dotacin ordinaria (involving just land
tenure regularization), and dotacin extraordinaria (which also includes the provision of services
to the target area, such as transport and water infrastructure, education and health).
There is an expectation that INRA will give land tenure to those who are occupying and
demonstrably using the land, (regardless of whether it is suitable for occupation and use or not).
This has led in some cases to perverse incentives: If someone wants to obtain ownership of
available land, they deforest as much land as they can in order to prove its utilization, even if
they do not have the capacity to work all the cleared land for agricultural production. This
deforestation has substantial climate change implications both from the perspective of mitigation
(lost carbon intake through photosynthetic activity, resulting in higher carbon concentration in the
atmosphere) and of adaptation (clearing land affects hydrological cycle, increasing runoff and
potentially leading to more severe flooding downstream).
The project documentation makes absolutely no reference to climate risks (such as floods and
landslides), neither as a relevant aspect of the region nor as a criteria for allocation of land tenure.
This is a dangerous gap, particularly considering that Bolivian municipalities in rural areas tend
to not have land use plans regulating construction and investment in hazard-prone areas. Such
absence of climate risks is in stark contrast with the detailed information on other aspects. For
example, the gender dimensions of land tenure are clearly integrated as a cross-cutting theme
(most likely as a result of the DGIS policy of mainstreaming gender issues in its portfolio).
Similarly, descriptions of land and landscapes in target areas are quite comprehensive in areas
outside of risk. For example, in the description of the Municipality of San Lorenzo (p. 127) there
is reference to the very irregular topography, with mountains, valleys and a detailed enumeration
of rivers. There is even a mention to the fact that this area is the birthplace of a somewhat
important historical figure. But the words flood or landslide are not mentioned even once.
There is explicit mention of settlements on riverbanks (p. 129), where soils can be more fertile
and irrigation through gravity can be easier to implement with relatively precarious means. Yet
the document presents no proposed measures for assessing and managing hazards associated with
intense precipitation events, which are common in this region and are likely to become more
frequent and severe under a changing climate.
The activities proposed by INRA, while necessary and laudable from the perspective of providing
land titles to marginalized people, are inevitably going to result in the creation of conditions that
will increase the chances of climate-related disasters. By promoting human settlements,
infrastructure development and investments for productive activities in hazard-prone areas
without adequate consideration to risk management concerns, the INRA initiative is, as currently
planned and implemented, actually constructing social vulnerability to climate change.
44
Fig. 8: Newspaper reports that 400 families are requesting land after flash floods in the Ro Grande destroyed their
households and crops. They have been living in tents for 8 months. Without an adequate consideration of flood and
landslide risks, the INRA initiative will give land tenure in hazard-prone areas, encouraging investments that will likely
be destroyed by disasters, particularly given climate change projections of more frequent and intense extreme events.
(Source: El Diario, Oct 4 2006)
The negative implications for development can be enormous, especially considering that
communities affected by disasters tend to require and demand attention, relief and even long-term
investments from government often resulting in the diversion of financial resources originally
destined to development-related investments. The newspaper article included below (Figure 8)
illustrates the pressures experienced by INRA after flash floods destroyed 400 households and
their productive assets in the Municipality of San Julin.
Addressing climate risks in the context of this land tenure program would require the formulation
of policies aimed at discouraging development in hazard-prone areas. Such policy is usually
difficult to implement due to the general lack of land use planning capacity in departmental and
municipal levels of government. Nonetheless, with adequate support from the international
development community there can be substantial progress. Options for improving climate risk
management include:
Integration of climate risk awareness raising and basic disaster risk management
approaches (such as floodplain regulation) into capacity-building efforts already planned.
45
Mapping of hazard-prone areas integrated into activities involving land surveying, use of
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and other components of the INRA project.
Design, implementation and monitoring of floodplain regulations and other land use
restrictions aimed at reducing climate-related risks.
Public campaigns on climate change and disaster management to facilitate the
implementation of land use restriction measures.
46
7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The analysis of the DGIS portfolio highlights the magnitude and seriousness of the risks posed by
climate to development cooperation in Bolivia. Evidence of climate variability and change in this
very diverse country is compelling. Main observed and projected trends include:
Higher temperatures, particularly in the higher altitudes of the Andean region
Glacier retreat (and possible disappearance)
Dramatic changes in river and stream flow, (notably a reduction of flow during the dry
season)
More frequent and intense extreme precipitation events, particularly floods and droughts
Higher risk of forest fires (due to drier, warmer conditions)
More susceptibility to diseases (notably malaria) as well as pests affecting crops and
forests
Reduced productivity of natural and managed ecosystems (including agriculture)
These trends in climate suggest that many sectors of the Bolivian productive system are under
threat, particularly given the heavy reliance of the most vulnerable sectors of the population on
natural resources, which are extremely sensitive to water variability. Observed and projected
changes in the hydrological cycle are the most likely cross-cutting causes of additional stress in
an already fragile socioeconomic situation.
Climate change poses substantial challenges to development initiatives. Risks can include direct
threats (e.g. investments irreversibly damaged by droughts or floods), under-performance (e.g.
investments that cannot deliver projected benefits due to inadequate climatic conditions) and
maladaptation (e.g. investments that create new vulnerabilities by promoting activities in
disaster-prone areas). There is evidence that these climate risks, compounded with other
situations of the country, can lead to conflict and social unrest.
It is important to think of these climate risks in the context of the long-term strategic objectives of
the Dutch cooperation in Bolivia. The Netherlands embassys policies for the country,
summarized in the draft Multi-Annual Plan 2005-2008, highlight the assistance to the Bolivian
government in its institutional strengthening efforts, on all levels, so as to boost efficiency,
effectiveness and transparency of the public sector service delivery. One of the five key trends
identified in this document is the Increased response to the pressure for natural resources use and
the loss of water, soil, forest and bio-diversity (MvT Art. 6 Obj. 1, 2), which is undoubtedly
related to climate change. The Strategic Objectives laid out in response to this trend are (5.1)
The sustainable use of natural resources is widespread, reversing the loss of environmental
resources and increasing access and improving the distribution of natural resources to women and
Of the 16 initiatives included in the DGIS portfolio, five were classified as high risk: Water
and Sanitation, National River Basin Program (PNC), Amazonia (PAT), National Institute for
Agrarian Reform (INRA), and Productive Chains (grape, wood and quinoa). The latter two were
discussed in detail as case studies, highlighting threats and opportunities: INRA can lead to
maladaptation (settlements and investment in hazard-prone areas, increasing risks), and the
productive chains are very sensitive to climate variability and change.
47
Five other DGIS initiatives were classified as medium risk: National Service of Protected
Areas (SERNAP), Ministry of Education (POMA), Bolivian System of Agrarian Technology
(SIBTA), Ombudsman, and Biocommerce. Many opportunities for facilitating risk management
and adaptation to climate change were identified in these and other less vulnerable DGIS
initiatives. Among them the National Climate Change Program (PNCC) is worth highlighting.
With Netherlands support, this project has been essential in promoting increased understanding
and action on the climate change front.
One of the most important findings of this study is that, overall, climate risks are not adequately
addressed in project documentation. Climate change is generally absent from documents
involving the DGIS portfolio, with the notable exception of the Amazonia (PAT) project and
PNCC. This is particularly surprising and problematic in initiatives that are very dependent on
climate-sensitive processes such as river flows, precipitation patterns and extreme temperatures.
Addressing climate risks would involve the articulation of DGIS-supported initiatives with local,
national regional, and global organizations that can assist in the identification of vulnerabilities as
well as the formulation and implementation of response strategies.
The current approach to development cooperation certainly contributes to these two strategic
objectives. However, many of the developmental gains resulting from DGIS-supported initiatives
in Bolivia are likely to be eroded by a changing climate. Increased frequency and severity of
floods, droughts and other climate-related risks pose a substantial threat to sensitive elements of
the DGIS portfolio. A variety of adaptation measures are available for reducing the vulnerability
of these initiatives to climate change. This report outlines key dimensions of this vulnerability,
and suggest options for dealing with the changing nature of climate risks in Bolivia.
48
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CARE (2006), Proyecto Amazonia Trinacional (PAT), La Paz, Bolivia.
Defensor del Pueblo de Bolivia (2004). Plan Estratgico 2001 2006 Del Defensor del Pueblo, La Paz, Bolivia.
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Instituto Nacional de Reforma Agraria (INRA) (2004). El Proyecto en Marco del Plan Tierra, ,La Paz, Bolivia.
Kadaster internacional (2004). Proyecto de Catastro Rural Legal para Chuquisaca, Saneamiento y Titulacin de la
Propiedad Rural, Transversalizacin del Enfoque de Gnero, La Paz, Bolivia.
Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadera y Desarrollo Rural (2001). Sistema Boliviano de Tecnologa Agropecuaria, Plan
Plurianual, ,La Paz, Bolivia.
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Viceministerio de Biodiversidad Recursos Forestales y Medio Ambiente 2006 2010, La Paz, Bolivia.
Ministerio de Planificacin del Desarrollo (2006). Plan Nacional de Desarrollo, Bolivia Digna Productiva y Soberana,
2006, La Paz, Bolivia.
PIEB (2006). Plan Trienal PIEB: Julio 2006 Junio 2009, La Paz, Bolivia.
Servicio Nacional de reas Protegidas (SERNAP)(2005). Plan Operativo Anual 2006 SERNAP PASNAPH, La Paz,
Bolivia.
The Netherlands Embassy-Bolivia (2004). Multi-Annual Plan 2005-2008, La Paz. Bolivia,
Unidad de Anlisis en Polticas Econmicas (UDAPE)(2005). TERCER INFORME Progreso de los Objetivos de
Desarrollo del Milenio Bolivia 2003-2004, UDAPE-Comit Interinstitucional de las Metas de Desarrollo del
Milenio (CIMDM) - Banco Mundial PROCOSI, La Paz, Bolivia.
WWF-IFC (Unpublished Manuscript). Strenghening the Bolivian Wood Sector Value Chain Trough an Improved
Access to Market, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
52
LIST OF ACRONYMS
AUTAPO
CAF
COSUDE
DGIS
DMW
ENI
FUNDESNAP
GCM
GDP
GEF
GIS
GTZ
IAI
IFRC
IGBP
IHDP
INRA
IPCC
ITCZ
LIDEMA
m.a.s.l.
MDGs
MDS
NCCSAP
NDVI
NGO
PAT
PIEB
PNA
PNC
PNCC
POMA
SERNAP
SIBTA
UNDP
UNFCCC
USD
WWF
Apoyo a las Universidades de Tarija y Potos

Coorporacin Andina de Fomento
Swiss Development Agency
Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Environment and Water Department at DGIS
Estrategia Nacional de Implementacin de la CMNUCC (UNFCCC)
Fundacin del Sistema de reas Protegidas
Global Circulation Model
Gross Domestic Product
Global Environment Facility
Geographic Information Systems
Geselshaft fr Technische Zusammenarbeit
Inter American Institute for Global Change Research
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
International Geosphere Biosphere Programme
International Human Dimensions Porgramme
Instituto Nacional de Reforma Agraria
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone
Liga de Defensa del Medio Ambiente
meters above sea level
Millenium Development Goals
Ministerio de Desarrollo Sostenible
The Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance Program
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
Non Governmental Organization
Programa Amaznico Trinacional
Programa de Investigacin Estratgica de Bolivia
Plan Nacional de Adaptacin
Programa Nacional de Cuencas
Programa Nacional de Cambios Climticos
Plan Operativo Multi Annual
Servicio Nacional de reas Protegidas
Sistema Boliviano de Tecnologa Agropecuaria
United Nations Development Programme
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
United States Dollars
World Wild Fund
53
54
ANNEX A: Summary of climate variability and change in Bolivia

Sources: Ministerio de Defensa Nacional, National Drought Mitigation Centre, FAO/DGIEW, Reliefweb
Biogeographic Unities
Climate Variability (Major Extreme Events

1980 2006 reported as emergency situations)
Northern Altiplano
Drought 1998, information non available
3800 4200 m.a.s.l
Floods 2001: At least 22,861 people of the 20

provinces of the department of La Paz have been
affected by the aftermath of the intense rains that
have resulted in flooding, mudslides and
landslides during January and February.
Floods 2002: Torrential rains and hail struck La
Paz on February 19 February. In just 45 minutes
a large portion of the city was flooded, taking the
population and local authorities by surprise. At
least 69 persons killed, dozens reported missing,
and approximately 100 injured. The depth of the
water reached two meters in low lying areas of La
Paz. The force of the water in hilly areas swept
away dozens of cars and public transportation
vehicles, merchandise from stores and even
homes and buildings, primarily in the most
densely populated areas of the city.
Trends 1950 2005
3800 4200 m.a.s.l
2002 Snow storm: the Lipez provinces of Potosi

suffered an unprecedented heavy snow storm
during June and July. The temperatures fell to
minus 13 degrees and seven persons were
reported to have died because of the cold. As the
livestock of mainly llamas constitutes the main
source of livelihood for the habitants in this
region, this emergency put their livelihood and
survival at risk. The storm affected more than
3000 families and killed more than 20000
animals.
Summary of Current and Future Impacts
More intense and often severe events are expected,

floods and hail might increasingly damage,
irrigation and transport infrastructure
In the last 5 to 10 years an

increase of hydrometereological
extreme events, including
drought, severe rains, and low
temperatures have been observed
Glacier retreat and disappearance might strongly

modify the water balance in the region, initially
increasing the availability of water due to the
increase of melting but later (2015 in advance)
increasing water shortages during the dry season, in
intermediate and big cities like el Alto.
Glacier retreat
Farmers have observed a delay
in the initiation of the rainy
season
Increase in the incidence of pest
and diseases in crops have been
observed but not well studied
Pastures might reduce their productivity due to

erratic climate, thus the carrying capacity of the
ecosystem to support increasing amounts of
livestock.
Traditional observation systems

are becoming less confident
because of erratic climate.
Subsistence rain feed crops might reduce their

productivity, due to erratic climate, severe events
and the shortening of the rainy season.
Cold Spells 2005: Reports of extreme cold

temperature in certain areas.

Altiplano
Climate Change Scenarios

(2005 2100)
There are no studies or

documentation that can support
statements with regards to trends
in this region.
GCM 450 ppm scenarios show an

increase in Temperatures in the order
of 2 C. A general decrease of
precipitation in the order of 3 to 9%
during the months of the rainy
season initiation and a general
increase in precipitations during the
last months of the rainy season
(December - February).
This is the region in Bolivia where
temperature will increase the most
for IS92a scenario by 5C.
Crops with irrigation might increase their

productivity due to CO2 fertilization and enhanced
metabolism.
Accuracy of traditional knowledge and decision
making process might deteriorate due to changing
conditions and erratic climate.
More intense and often severe events are expected,
snow storms, floods and hail might impact upon
livestocks
Pastures might reduce their productivity due to
drought and erratic climate, thus the carrying
capacity of the ecosystem to support increasing
amounts of livestock
Subsistence rain feed crops might reduce their
productivity, due to erratic climate, severe events
and the shortening of the rainy season
Accuracy of traditional knowledge and decision
making process might deteriorate due to changing
conditions and erratic climate.
55

Trends 1950 2005
Yungas
2001 Flooding and hot weather: During

February this event increased the danger of
infectios diseases in Guanay: The sun and hot
weather have brought an invasion of flies and
mosquitos. 30 cases of malaria, and the concern
af an outbreak. The local hospital is braced to
treat malaria patients, with six doctors and the
necessary medicines. Other infections such as
cholera, fungi, stomach problems, respiratory and
skin infections are also a threat for the residents
of Guanay.

in this region
1200 3600 m.a.s.l
2003 Heavy rains and floods: Destroyed the

Tunari bridge which connects the city of
Cochabamba with Santa Cruz.

dry Valleys
1980 Hail in Tarija causes severe damages
1200 3800 m.a.s.l
1982-1983 Drought: This ENSO-releated event

affected more than 1,5 Mio people and the
economic losses are estimated for the western
part of Bolivia in USD 240 million.
2002 Forest Fire: An unprecedented forest fire
in August causes irreparable damage to
approximately 20 thousand hectares of the in the
SAMA Biological Reserve Tarija.
1997/1998 El Nio: Drought situations and
heavy rains in some places (erratic climate)
during EL Nio brought economic loses of about
USD 500 million to the country.
2001 - 2002 Drought: Losses in the range of 70
to 90 % of rain-fed crops (mainly maize) in the
middle basin of Rio Grande in the Cochabamba
southern provinces.
Irrigation water shortage in the Angostura water
reservoir by 12 November the 7.2 millon m3
The risk of heavy rains will with medium level of

confidence increase, due to increase in rainfall
during the rainy season.
The risk of uncontrolled forest fires will with a low
level of confidence increase.
GCM Models show precipitation

increases along the lower parts of the
Andean chain.
2003 Heavy rains and flood: Heavy rains

generated several emergency situations. In the
locality of Chima in the northern provinces of La
Paz a landslide almost sheltered the entire town.
In the tropical region o Chapare heavy rains
destroyed the Tunari bridge which connects the
city of Cochabamba.
Chapare
800 m.a.s.l

(2005 2100)

in this region
During el Nio events
1982/1983 and 1997/1998 the
region was affected by severe
droughts.
A Malaria outbreack avobe 3200
m.a.s.l have been reported in the
Tuntunani region
There is not enough information to conclude what

might be principal trends in the future for this
region.
IS92a Scenarios show a temperature
increase between 3 to 5C for the
year 2100. Precipitation decreases of
about 3 to 6% for the initiation of the
rainy season and increases in the
range of 6 to 9 mm/month during the
rainy season months (December
February) in average situations.
Drought situations might become more frequent in

the departments of Cochabamba, Chuquisaca, Tarija
and northern Potosi. The delay in the initiation of
the rainy season has been consistently reported by
farmers, meteorologists and the press.
Not only rain feed crops are at risk but also
irrigation systems and irrigated crops..
Small rivers and other water

bodies are disappearing and the
risk of desertification is high.
The risk of severe rainfall events is also increasing

in particular during the last months of the rainy
season.
Farmers have observed a delay

in the initiation of the rainy
season.
The risk of extreme hail events which concentrate in

the central valleys towards the south might expand
towards the northern part in the department of La
Paz
Extreme hail events with a trend

towards the southern part of the
valleys in particular in the
regions of Tarija and Chuquisaca
and southern part of the
department of Potosi.
56
Extreme wind events can increase, there are have

been also reported and can reduce the productivity
and damage cereal crops.
Food security and poverty reduction in the region is
at high risk

reservoir was almost empty.
Trends 1950 2005

(2005 2100)
Sever wind has been reported in

the province of Mizque.
Temperature reached 33C and water bodies

evaporated more quickly
2005 Hail: affected the production of wine 11 and
13 September in the central valley of Tarija.
Chaco
800 1200 m.a.s.l
Chiquitana
600 - 800 m.a.s.l
2005 Snow Storm in the Morochata region

Cochabamba: the snow reached 1.8 meters and
affected more than 100 families in more that 20
communities and killed more that 750 animals
2004 Drought: A prolonged drought during
November in the Chaco Provinces severely
threatened the food security, health and
nutritional status of children and adults in the El
Chaco region, which consists of the departments
Santa Cruz, Chuquisaca, and Tarija.
Approximately 180,000 people are affected, of
which 26,000 are children. The region was
considered to be at risk of a major humanitarian
crisis. The Government of Bolivia has declared
the drought-affected region of El Chaco as a
national disaster area.
1999 Forest Fires in the Asension de Guarayos
Provinces: Drought and wind exacerbated forest
fires initiated by land habilitation practices, 3000
people loose their homes and more than 100.000
hectares of forest were affected.

in this region
Erratic climate, strong winds,

and hot waves have been
reducing crop productivity.
Is difficult to conclude if this region will become

dryer even if there is a general trend to increase
yearly precipitations because of high temperatures
and temperature extremes (above 40C) evaporation
might increase and therefore water availability and
runoff might decrease.
Temperature increases for a business
as usual scenario IS92a will be in the
range of 3 to 5C for year 2100.
Scenarios shows a slightly increase
in average precipitations, though
changes in soil moisture content are
negative, because of enhanced
evaporation.
Water shortages in some intermediate cities will

become more frequent.
More hot waves and cattle stress is expected
Temperature increase and hot waves will increase

stress of major crops (soybean, sunflower, cotton,
rice and sugarcane)
Hot waves might enhance cattle stress
2005 Drought: in Santa Cruz: En la CAO

hicieron un primer anlisis de la situacin a
principios del mes de agosto. Si bien en el
balance preliminar no se animaron a tocar el tema
de las 280 mil hectreas de soya sembradas, sin
embargo, en el girasol por ejemplo se pronostic
una prdida real de entre el 20 y 30 por ciento; el
sorgo, trigo, frejol y maz caer su rendimiento
entre el 15 y 20 por ciento.
Beni Grasslands
600 800 m.a.s.l
Floods during el Nio 1997/1998: The floods

put in emergency situation to the capital city of
Trinidad.

in this region
Flood will with medium level of confidence more

frequent.
According to GCM temperature

increases will be stronger in tropical
57
Temperature increases and precipitation pattern

changes will enhance the frequence of drought
situtations

Amazonas Rainforest
2004 Forest Fires: Drought and wind

exacerbated forest fires initiated by land
habilitation fires affected 60% of the Beni
province in the amazonas region of Bolivia
during September.
600 m.a.s.l
Trends 1950 2005

in this region
2005 Forest Fires: affected 150.000 hectares of

tropical forest during September in Riberalta.
58

(2005 2100)
regions. Scenarios IS92 a show
increases until 5 C towards year
2100. Conditions along the
Amazonas rainforests will be in
general dryer.
Climate favorable conditions for forest fires

outbreaks will become more frequent
ANNEX B: Summary of proposed methodology

The assessment of DGIS projects vis a vis climate risk builds on the methodological approach developed
by Richard Klein (Stockholm Environment Institute) in collaboration with Pablo Suarez for a research
project funded by the bank Netherlands Partnership Program and managed by the World Bank
Development Research Group (Suarez et al. 2005).
Following Klein et al. (in review), the proposed assessment considers three distinct ways in which climate
change can impinge on the success of development projects:
The risk of climate variability and change to the development project and its deliverables;
The vulnerability to climate change of the community or ecosystem that is intended to benefit
from the development project;
The possible effects of the development project and its deliverables on the vulnerability of
communities or ecosystems to climate change.
The assessment encompasses the preparation of intermediate matrixes and summaries based on available
information of extreme events, climate change scenarios, in country development priorities (based on the
review of the PRSP and relevant Development Plans) and the initial review of projects, programs and
planning particularly focusing on the DGIS investment by document review and consultations with key
stakeholders and people involved in decision making, design and evaluation and policy analysis.
With the activities described above, DGIS-supported initiatives are classified as low risk (green), medium
risk (orange) and high risk (red), depending on their sensitivity to climate as well as on their relationship
to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and national priorities and policies.
Climate sensitivity
Relevance to
MDG
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
The classification is defined as follows:

High Risk: Items in the DGIS portfolio with at least one MDG judged to be high relevance,
high climate sensitivity
( )
Medium Risk: Items with at least one MDG judged as either high relevance, medium climate
sensitivity
( ) or medium relevance, high climate sensitivity ( )
Low Risk: Items in the DGIS portfolio that are neither High risk nor medium risk.
59
This exercise can provide the valuation for classifying programs and projects according to low (green),
medium (orange) and high (red) risk, and identify opportunities in projects and programs that could
contribute to reducing climate vulnerability.
The method mentioned above will be used only to the extent that it serves the practical purposes of this
assignment. Challenges and opportunities will be explored at the levels of policies, country cases and
projects in a summary matrix, which will provides overview information of the DGIS in country profile.
In addition to providing country-specific information that is useful in its own right, this last summary
matrix will serve to explore what might be general adaptation measures and policies that can be foster at
the project, program and policy levels and this will be the systematic approach for providing inputs and
recommendations to risk and adaptation activities of DGIS in Bolivia.
60
ANNEX C: Overview of the interviews undertaken during the mission

1
Contact Person
Jan Willem Le Grand
First Secretary
Environment
The Netherlands Embassy
Hans van der Heuvel

Secretary
Sustainable Productive
Development
Ana Rochkovski
First Secretary
Education
Netherlands Embassy
Ricardo Galindo Avila

Expert, Sustainable Productive
Development and Trade
Janette Trujillo
Gender Responsible
Gary Montao
Sustainable Productive
Development Expert
Marco Giussani
Project Officer
IFC World Banc Group
Contact Information
Av. 6 de Agosto No.2455
Ed. Hilda Piso 7
Telf. ++591-2-2444040
Fax. ++591-2-2443785
P.O.Box 10509
La Paz Bolivia
Email: jan-willemle.grand@minbuza.nl
Ed. Hilda Piso 7
Telf. ++591-2-2444040
Fax. ++591-2-2443785
P.O.Box 10509
La Paz Bolivia
Email: hansvande.heuvel@minbuza.nl
Ed. Hilda Piso 7
Telf. ++591-2-2444040
Fax. ++591-2-2443785
P.O.Box 10509
La Paz Bolivia
Email: ana.rochkovski@minbuza.nl
Ed. Hilda Piso 7
Telf. ++591-2-2444040
Fax. ++591-2-2443785
P.O.Box 10509
La Paz Bolivia
Email: ricardo.galindo@minbuza.nl
Ed. Hilda Piso 7
Telf. ++591-2-2444040
Fax. ++591-2-2443785
P.O.Box 10509
La Paz Bolivia
Email: jl.trujillo@minbuza.nl
Ed. Hilda Piso 7
Telf. ++591-2-2444040
Fax. ++591-2-2443785
P.O.Box 10509
La Paz Bolivia
Email: gary.montano@minbuza.nl
Ed. Victor Piso 8
Fernando Guachalla No. 342
Telf. ++591-2-2115470
Fax. ++591-2-22115499
P.O.Box 8692
La Paz Bolivia
Email: mgiussani@ifc.org
61
Short summary of discussions

General review of the DGIS
portfolio
Explorative discussions about

productive chain concept,
current trends, institutional
changes in the government of
Bolivia. Detailed exploration of
some projects and programs
related to productive chains
SIBTA, UPC, Productive
Chains
Explorative discussions about
the Education Program funded
by DGIS (POMA), AUTAPO
Foundation, SIBTA. Contact
persons for further interviews.
Looked into more detail of the

Biocomerce and National
Watershed Programs (PNC).
Contact persons for case
studies.
Contact person to collaborate

with the mission. Explorative
discussions about the Gender
issue and collaboration to
explore DGIS portfolio in more
detail
Explorative discussions of some
DGIS funded programs (INRA,
SIBTA, UPC)
General description of the

program funded by DGIS and
climate change considerations
of the Wood Productive chain,
additional contact persons for
case studies.
Contact Person
Walter Valda Rivera
Viceminister of Watersheds and
Water Resources
Ministry of Water
Contact Information
Ed. Ministerio de Planificacin del
Desarrollo
Av. Mariscal Santa Cruz
Telf. ++591-2-2312475
Mob. ++591-71531046
Email: walter_valda@hotmail.com
2, Asiatisk Plads
DK-1448 Copenhagen K
Email: hennoh@um.dk
Henning Nohr
Chief Technical Adviser
Environment & Water
Technical Advisory Service
10
Mike Speirs
Seor Technical Advisor
Environment & Water
Ministry of Foreing Affairs of
Denmark
2, Asiatisk Plads
DK-1448 Copenhagen K
Email: mikspe@um.dk
11
Andreas Brogaard Buhl

Adviser
Denmark Embassy
12
Richard Klein
Head
Climate and Energy Group
Stockholm Environment Institute
Av. Arce No. 2799 Esq. Cordero

Ed. Fortaleza 9th floor
P.O.Box 9860
Telf.++591-2-2432070 int 103
Fax. ++591-2-2433150
Email: andbuh@um.dk
SEI
Box 2142, S - 103 14 Stockholm,
Sweden
Tel: +46 8 412 14 16
Fax: +46 8 723 03 48
Email: richard.klein@sei.se
13
Diana Sietz
Doctoral candidate
Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research, Germany
PIK
P.O. Box 601203
14412 Potsdam
Germany
Email: sietz@pik-potsdam.de
14
Richard Vaca
Director Biotrade Program
Fundacion Amigos de la Naturaleza
15
Ricardo Guzmn Gutierrez

Coordinador Programa Quinua
Fundacin AUTAPO
16
Rafael Revilla Osorio

Program Assistant
Quinoa
Fundacin AUTAPO
Km. 7 Carretera ant. Cochabamba

Telf. ++591-3-3556800
Fax. ++591-3-3547383
P.O.Box 2241
Santa Cruz Bolivia
Email: rvaca@fan-bo.org
c. Jacinto Benavente No. 2190
telf/fax: ++591-2-2110539
mob. ++591-70664871
Email:
Ricardo.guzman@fundacionautapo.org
c. Jacinto Benavente No. 2190
telf/fax: ++591-2-2110539
mob. ++591-70664871
Email:
rafael.revilla@fundacionautapo.org
62

Water management policy
Approached in occasion of the

meeting building resilient
development token place in
Copenhagen from 25 and 26
September to talk about the
Danish Environment Support
Program for Bolivia
Approached in occasion of the
meeting building resilient
development token place in
Copenhagen from 25 and 26
September to talk about the
Danish Environment Support
Program for Bolivia
Approached before and after a
meeting in Copenhagen to talk
about means for putting climate
change considerations into the
development agenda.
Approached during the meeting
building resilient development
token place in Copenhagen
from 25 and 26 September 2006
to talk about the methodology
of mainstreaming adaptation
used for a World Bank study in
Mozambique.
Approached during the meeting
building resilient development
token place in Copenhagen
from 25 and 26 September 2006
to talk about the methodology
of mainstreaming adaptation
used for a World Bank study in
Mozambique.
Climate change considerations
within the Biotrade Program
General description of the

Quinoa Program and climate
change risks and management
marketing and funding

strategies of the Quinoa
Program
17
Contact Person
Benhard Griesinger
Representant
OEA Bolivia Office
Contact Information
Ed. Maria Haydee Piso 12
Av. 20 de Octubre No. 2396
Telf. ++591-2-2413990
Fax. ++591-2-2414048
La Paz Bolivia
Email: bgriesinger@oea.org.bo
Ed. Ballivin Mezanine
c.Mercado 1328
TEf.++591-2-2200206
Fax. ++591-2-2204037
Emai:ftejada@planificacion.gov.bo
c.Mercado 1328
TEf.++591-2-2200206
Fax. ++591-2-2204037
Emai:iarana@planificacion.gov.bo
c.Mercado 1328
TEf.++591-2-2200206
Fax. ++591-2-2204037
Emai: marilyneffen@yahoo.com.ar
Escobedo No. 1204 y Av. 9 de Octubre
Ed. Fundacin El Universo
Telf. ++5934-2514770
Fax. ++5934-2514771
Email: jcamacho@ciifen-int.org
18
Freddy Tejada Miranda

Plan Quinquenal Responsible
PNCC
19
Ivar Arana Pardo

National Adaptation Plan
Responsable
PNCC
20
Marilyn Aparicio Effen

Human Health Task Leader
PNCC
21
Dr. Jos Luis Camacho Ruiz

International Director
Centro Internacional para la
Investigacin del Fenmeno del
Nio
22
Silvina Alicia Solman

Researcher
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y
la Atmsfera, CIMA (Consejo
Nacional de Investigaciones
Cientficas y Tcnicas, CONICET/
Universidad de Buenos Aires, UBA)
Ciudad Universitaria, Pabelln II, 2

Piso. Buenos Aires, ARGENTINA
Telf.: (54-11) 4787-2693
Fax: (54-11) 4788-3572
Email: solman@cima.fcen.uba.ar
23
Dr. Sin Chan Chou

Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais, INPE / Centro de
Previsao de Tempo e Estudios
Climticos,
CPTEC
INPE CPTEC. Rodovia Presidente

Dutra KM 40. Cachoeira Paulista - San
Pablo, BRASIL
Telf. (55-12) 3186-8424
Fax: (55-12) 3101-2835
Email: chou@cptec.inpe.br
63

OEA disaster collaboration
Meteorological office in
Bolivia, global change research
in the OEA countries and
Bolivia participation.
Looked into more detail the
activities carried out by the Plan
Quinquenal on adaptation.
Exploratory discussions about

the National Adaptation Plan,
priority sectors, mechanisms,
funding.
Human health threats and
studies carried out in the
context of NCAP.
Aproached during the III

Meeting of the Iberoamerican
Climate Change Offices in
Santa Cruz to explore what are
major capacity building
programs for climate change
scenarios in the region.
Santa Cruz to talk about the
new generation of Regional
Models and the exchange of
Regional Model Outputs.
Santa Cruz to talk about the
new generation of Regional
Models and the exchange of
Regional Model Outputs.
NCAP is managed by ETC on behalf of the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

For more information see www.nlcap.net or contact:
ETC Foundation
P.O.Box 64,
3830 AB Leusden
The Netherlands
Phone: +31 (0) 33 432 6000
Fax: +31 (0) 33 494 0791
E-mail: energy@etcnl.nl
March 2007

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Poverty Reduction at Risk

2.1. Objectives of this study

2.2. Methods and activities

3.1. Overview of climate and disasters in Bolivia

3.2. Climate change and variability: Observed trends

3.2.1. Temperature rise and glacier retreat

3.2.2. Floods, droughts and changes in precipitation patterns

3.2.3. Forest fires

3.3. Climate change: Projected trends

3.3.1. Temperature rise and glacier retreat

3.3.2. Floods, droughts and changes in precipitation patterns

BOLIVIA AND THE DUTCH COOPERATION

4.1. Development challenges and the Dutch cooperation

4.2. Overview of DGIS strategy and national policies

4.3. Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Bolivia

VULNERABILITY OF DGIS-SUPPORTED INITIATIVES TO CLIMATE RISKS

5.1. Methodology and risk classification

5.2. High risk DGIS initiatives

5.2.1. Water and Sanitation

5.2.2. National River Basin Program (PNC)

5.2.3. Amazonia (PAT)

5.2.4. National Institute for Agrarian Reform (INRA)

5.2.5. Productive Chains (grape, wood and quinoa)

5.3. Medium risk DGIS initiatives

National Service of Protected Areas (SERNAP)

5.3.2. Ministry of Education (POMA)

5.3.3. Bolivian System of Agrarian Technology (SIBTA)

5.4. Low risk DGIS initiatives

6.1. Sustainable Production Chains

6.2. National Institute for Agrarian Reform (INRA)

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

ANNEX A: Summary of climate variability and change in Bolivia

ANNEX B: Summary of proposed methodology for assessing climate risks

ANNEX C: Overview of the interviews undertaken during the mission

2.2. Methods and activities

Fig. 1: Ecological regions in Bolivia (Source: Rivera 1992)

Central and Southern

Central and Southern Dry

Projections 1990 2100

Observations 1980 2005

(Main vulnerable sectors

3.2. Climate change and variability observed trends (1980 2005)

Source: IFRC Appeal no: 5/2001, 1 February 2001

DROP-OUT RATES BY GRADE, 1997 AND 2003

Water Wars in Bolivia

Climate change severely threatens water resources,

3.3. Climate change: projected trends

Fig. 7: Change in September Precipitation, Year 2050, Scenario WRE 450

4. BOLIVIA AND THE DUTCH COOPERATION

4.1. Development challenges and the Dutch cooperation

Table 3: Current DGIS Portfolio in Bolivia

Ministry of Education (POMA)

4.2. Overview of DGIS strategy and national policies

4.3. Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Bolivia

5. VULNERABILITY OF DGIS-SUPPORTED INITIATIVES TO CLIMATE RISK

( ) or medium relevance, high climate sensitivity ( )

5.2. High risk DGIS initiatives

Nat. Inst. for

Climate change and variability sensibilities and vulnerabilities

Risk management measures and recommendations /

8. Develop a global partnership

6. Combat HIV/Malaria and

5. Improve maternal health

Gonzales & Suarez 2007 Poverty Reduction at Risk in Bolivia.v1

Gonzales & Suarez 2007 Poverty Reduction at Risk in Bolivia.v1