Journal of Maharashtra Agricultural Universities

133 equations and nomographs of India.

Statistical Climatology. Developments in Atmospheric Science 13. Elsevier Scient
ific Pub!. Co., Amsterdam. pp. 359-374. Ram Babu, B. L. Dhyani, R. Tondon and N.
Kumar. 2001. Rainfall intensityduration-return period equations and nomographs
of Madhya Pradesh. Indian J. Soil Cons. 29(3) : 200-205. Senapati, P. c., S. K.
Shakya and J. P. Nema. 1976. Nomograph of intensity, duration and recurrence int
erval of rainfall at Bombay (Colaba). Irrig. Power J. 33(4) : 525-528.
UTERATURE CITED Barai, V. N. 1997. Development of rainfalll intensity-frequency-
duration relationship for Rahuri and Solapur. M. Tech. thesis submitted to the M
. P. K. V., Rahuri. Mockus, V. 1960. Selecting a flood frequency method. Trans.
ASAE 3: 4851,54. Nemec, J. 1973. Engineering Hydrology. Tata-McGraw Hill Pub. Co
. Ltd. New Delhi. Ogrosky, H. O. and Mockus. 1957. National Engineering Handbook
. Sec. 4. Hydrology Supp. A. 18-11 to 14. Soil
Cons. Serv., U. S. D. A. Papamichail, D. M. and Z.G. Papaza firiou. 1992. Multip
le single output linear functional models for river flow routing. J. Hydrol 133
: 365-377. Ram Babu, B. L., K. G. Tejwani, M. C. Agrawal and L. S. Bhushan. 1979
. Rainfall intensity - duration - return period equations and nomographs of Indi
a. Bull. No.3. Central Soil and Water Cons. Res. and Training Insti., Dehradun :
1-70. Ram Babu B. L., K. G. Tejwani, M. C. Agrawal and L. S. Bhushan. 1980. Rain
fall intensity-duration-return period
J. Maharashtra agric. Univ., 32 (1) : 133-139 (2007)
Climate and its Impact on Global Crop Production
P. S. Sehra1 Department of Agronomy and Agrometeorology, Punjab Agricultural Uni
versity, Ludhiana -141 004 (India) (Received: 19-11-2005)
ABSTRACT
Recent changes such as the increase in global temperature are largely attributab
le to human activities linked to increasing the concentration of greenhouse gase
s such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, etc., by burning of fossil fue
ls, crop residues, industrial and transport pollution, firecrackers pollution an
d pollution due to wars. Global mean surface temperatures could thus rise by, 1.
4 to 5.8°C from 1990 to 2100. Depletion of stratospheric ozone layer by the emi
ssion of chloro-fluoro-carbons (CFCs) from supersonic aircrafts, use of sprays,
etc., has caused an ozone hole over Antarctica leading to health hazards. Our ch
anging climate plays a key role in global crop production. Consequently in 2002,
wheat production increased in some countries in the European Union, Kazakhstan,
Russia, Turkey, India, Iran and Pakistan and declined in Argentina, Australia,
Brazil Canada, China, Estern Europe, Mexico, Morocco, South Africa, Tunisia, Ukr
aine and the USA. Likewise coarse grain production was also affected. Therefore,
check all such activities which adversely affect our climate and environment fo
r a better future.
chosen to highlight the need to protect climate as a resource for the well being
of present and future generations, besides its impact on global crop production
. Climate change: Changes in climate are known to have occured in the past due t
o natural causes. Recent changes such as the increase in the mean global tempera
ture of 0.6°C since instrumental records began in the 1860s, are largely being
attributed to human activities. In fact, the year 1998 was the warmest on record
with 2001 as the second highest. The 1990s were the warmest decade of the 20th
century and it is likely that the rate and duration of warmirjg of the 20th cent
ury were larger than at any other time during the last 1000 years (Folland et al
. ,2001). The warming observed is linked
Key words:
Climate change, crop production.
The theme of the World Meteorological Day (WMO) for the year 2003 was our future
climate. Actually, Climate is vital for sustaining life on Earth as it has a pr
ofound effect on food security, security of life and property, water
1. Scientist.
resources, leisure and sustainable development (Boodhod, 2003). However, there i
s growing evidence that humankind is altering the character of the thin layer of
air that surrounds our planet earth with implications for the climate it genera
tes. The theme for that year's celebration was, therefore, been
131
Sehra P. S.
to the growth in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Carbon
dioxide, a major greenhouse gas, has grown from about 280 parts per million by
volume (ppmv) in 1750 to 380 ppmv at the end of 2001, an increase of over 32 per
cent. Over the same period, atmospheric concentrations of methane and nitrous o
xide increased by 15 and 17 per cent respectively. As a result of the warming, t
he global mean sea-level has risen by between 10 and 20 cm. The rise has been es
timated to be as much as 10 times the averagâ ¬! increase in the last 3000 years.
Over the past 50 years, the extent of sea ice in the northern hemisphere has dec
reased by about 10 to 15 per cent. The
'.
economy nearly 100 billion US Dollars. Statistics compiled from insurance compan
ies for the period 1950 to 1999 show that the major natural catastrophes which a
re mainly weather and climate related caused estimated economic losses of about
960 billion US Dollars as given in Table 1 . Most of the losses were recorded in
the recent decades (Cornford, 2003).
Perhaps the most striking evidence of the. effects of global warming are the cha
nges in the flora and fauna. In the southern ocean, vegetation is thriving on th
e most southerly islands and is expanding. on the Antarctic Peniosula.
of the climate change on the national economies, especially on those of the deve
loping countries, WMO, in collaboration with the United Nations Environment Prog
ramme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). T
he Panel's (IPCC) tasks include assessment of scientific information on climate
change and its environmental and socioeconomic impacts as well as the formulatio
n of appropriate response strategies.
duration of annual lake and, river ice
was shortened by about two weeks over the last century. There has been a 40 per
cent decline in Arctic sea ice thickness in late summer to early autumn in the p
ast 45 to 50 years and a widespread retreat of mountain glaciers in non-polar re
gions was observed in the last 100-150 years. Over the last 30 years, a number o
f unprecedented extreme weather and climate events such as floods, tropical cycl
ones and droughts have occurred in various parts of the world. Globally over the
last 10 years, the number of hydro meteorological disasters has doubled. Worldw
ide, recurrent drought and desertification seriously threaten the livelihood of
over 1.2 billion people who depend on the land for most of their needs. The 1997
/1998 El-Nino event, the strongest of the last century, is estimated to have aff
ected 110 million people and cost the global
Since its establishment,the IPCC has issued three assessment reports. The first
assessment report of the IPCC issued in 1990 led to the commencement by WMO and
UNEP of negotiations for a In 1979, WMO convened the famework convention on clim
ate first World Climate Conference change which was signed in Rio United Nations
leading to the establishment of the during the World Climate Programme (WCP) Co
nference on Environment and and its component parts. In 1988, Development (UNCED
) in 1992. in the light of the growing concern The second assessment report abou
t the impact of human activities issued in 1995 contributed to the on climate an
d the potential impact negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol
Table 1. Fatalities and economic losses in 15 major weather events in 2002.
Date
Country/region
Event
Fatalities
Estimated economic losses (US$ millions)
July-August
10-22.5 June 3.5 7-22.8 4-20.8 July-Oct. 11.1-22.2 31.8-6.9 26-28.10 8-9.9 27.4-
3.5 23.9-3.10 July Dec.
July-August
Nepal, Bangladesh,India Floods India Heat wave China Floods Bangladesh China Eur
ope Vietnam Indonesia DPR&Rof Korea W. & Central Europe France USA 17 States Car
ibbean, USA Austrolia USA,esp. Nebraska Severe storm Floods Floods Floods Floods
Typhoon Rusa Storm Jeanette Floods Tornadoes, severe stom Hurricane Lili Drough
t Drought, heat waves
1200 1100 500 270 250 230 155 150 50 33 23 10 8
80 3100 1700 18500 25 350 4500
2300 1200 2000 2000 3000 3300 42055
Total
3979
Journal of Maharashtra Agricultural Universities
135
to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It is the
IPCC's third assessment report issued in September 2001 from which the IPCC con
cluded that there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed
over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. Such conclusions as
well as future climate projections are based on the output of complete atmosphe
re-ocean general circulationmodels and on scenarios of energy use and greenhouse
gas emission projections. While there are many uncertainties in future projecti
ons, the confipence in the ability of the. climate models to provide useful esti
mates has improved significantly. WMO/WMD theme for 2003: "Our future climate" :
The third IPCC Assessment Report indicates that the global mean surface tempera
ture would rise by 1.4 to 5.8°C over the period 1990 to 2100. This projected ra
te of warming is much higher than the observed change during the 20th century an
d is very likely to be without precedent during the last 10000 years. Sea level
was estimated to rise by about 9 to 88 cm between 1990 and 2100. This would have
significant socioeconomic impacts as flat islands, harbours, some agricultural
lands, freshwater resources, tourist areas and productive coastal lands may face
a threat. Precipitation is projected to intensifyduring the 21st century. At lo
w latitudes, there would be decrease in some regions and increase in others. In
middleto high latitudes, precipitation events would be intensified.Droughts and
floods
may become more prevalent. Current projections show little change or a slight in
crease in the amplitude of EI-Nino events over the next 100 years. But with high
er temperatures, the extreme of floods and drought generally associated with El-
Nino events would be more severe. It is also likely that there would be greater
Asian monsoon precipitation variability. Northern hemisphere snow cover and sea-
ice extent are projected to diminish further and glaciers and ice caps will cont
inue to retreat. Climate change will also affect human health. through multiple
pathways, including direct effects and indirect effects that operate through cha
nges in the range of disease vectors (e.g. mosquitoes), water borne pathogens an
d water and air quality, etc. While these projections are for the next 100 years
, a greater concern is that human induced climate change will persist for many c
enturies as some greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide) are long-lived. Human ac
tivities leading to climate change, viz., burning of fossil fuels, industrial po
llution, paddy burning, firecrackers on festivals, fighting of wars, use of spra
ys giving Chiorofluoro-carbons (CFCs) which deplete ozone, activities leading to
increase of greenhouse gases may have to be immediately curtailed for preservin
g better climate for ourselves and for our future generations 2003). (Boodhod,
temperature record since 1861. The warmest year remains 1998 when surface temper
atures averaged 0.55°C above the same 30-year. mean. The five warmest years in
this period of record now are in decreasing order: 1998, 2002, 2001, 1995 and 19
97. Average annual temperature anomalies for the globe are shown in Fig. 1 with
temperature anomalies from 0.36°C to 0.76°C, approximately (Horton et 01. 2003
). Abnormally high temperatures were observed during April 2002 across India and
a prolonged heatwave over its northern regions from mid-April until the third w
eek of May caused more than 1000 fatalitieswith the maximum temperatures reachin
g around 49°C. Drought conditions: The seasonal rainfallduring, the summer sout
hwest monsoon from June to September in India as a whole was 19 per cent belowno
rmal qualifying 2002 as the first all-Indiadrought since 1987. Rainfalldeficits
during July were most noteworthy at a historical low of 49 per cent below normal
. A remarkable recovery in rainfall occurred in August which prevented the situa
tion from becoming worse. As in the case of the severe drought during summer 200
1, the countries most affected in 2002 were Honduras, Nicaragua, ElSalvador and
Guatemala, where significantagriculturalimpacts were reported. In the USA, while
drought conditions worsened in the west, significantimprovementwas seen in the e
ast. Dry conditions were experienced in Australiathroughout the period for March
to December 2002 with 97.3 per cent of the Australian continent experiencing
Global climate system in 2002 : The global mean surface temperature in 2002 was
0.48°C above the 1961-1990 annual average. This value places 2002 as the second
warmest year in the
136
Sehra P. S.
U.tI 0.6 0.4
below median rainfall. Hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones: During the At
lantic hurricane season (JuneNovember) in 2002. 12 named tropical storms were ob
served, somewhat higher than the average of 10. September 2002 was the most acti
ve tropical storm month on record in the North Atlantic Basin. In the western No
rth Pacific. 26 named storms were observed near the 1971-2000 average of 26.7. T
yphoon Rusa made landfall on the Korean Peninsula at the end of August resulting
in flooding and more than 240 dead or missil!g. The one-day rainfall of about 8
70 mm. the greatest since 1911. was recorded at G~mgneung there. The cyclone sea
son in the SouthWest Indian Ocean was characterised by a slightly higher than av
erage number of cyclones with 13 formations versus 10 for a normal year. An inte
nse tropical cyclone named Dina brought a 24-hour precipitation record amount of
745 mm over Mauritius in 24 hours with winds reaching 228 km per hour. anomalie
s: In Precipitation January. rapid snowmelt caused flooding in the western north
Caucasus region of the Russian Federation. leading to damage in several communi
ties in the Kuban river valley. The flooding led to the breach of dams and consi
derable damage and loss of Ilfe. In southern France. severe flooding in Septembe
r led to 24 deaths and severe damage. the greatest precipitation total in the re
gion was nearly 690 mm which fell in approximately 24 hours. Heavy G
\0 0'
(a) Globe. 1861 - 2002
~ o q"'
-
-
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::s :-0.8 o
~ '"
-06 1880
. .. 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0.8 ~ o 0'
G
0.6" 0.4 0.2
0.0
.
(b)N. Hemisphere,1861- 2002
8 0'
£
E
-0.2.
~ 3
B c '"
~ 4 .
-~6'
~B
1880
,
.
J.
,... ~
.~
;
~ - ...,~ :
'- -..
- -. .
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
c
~
~ \0 0' '" g '"
~
2
0.8
0.6 0.4
(c) S. Hemisphere. 1861 - 2002 j .
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
.
~
-0.6
-08
.. . ~..
is
"_~."'h.. _.~---
n"'-"_-
. -..---
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Fig. 1. Annual combined land surface air and sea surface temperature anomalies f
or the period 1861-2002, relative to the average for 1961-90. Data are modified
(Fones et al. 2001) updates of Parker et al.(1995) for the ocean and Fones (1994
) for land. The global and hemispheric series and error bars were estimated by o
ptimum averaging (Folland et al. 2001a). precipitation occurred in the parts of
north-east region of Spain during summer and autumn. In East Africa, heavy rains
brought flooding in the south of the United Republic of Tanzania in January and
in Kenya and Uganda from March to May, when some locations recorded the wettest
conditions since 1961. The regions of central and southern Ethiopia, however, e
xperienced a general failure of the rains in the period from June to September.
After a dry beginning to 2002, the Asean summer monsoon and several typhoons bro
ught heavy rains to the region from southern China to the Indochina peninsula. T
he south-
Journal of Maharashtra Agricultural Universities
137
west monsoon in Bangladesh, eastern India and Nepal was also active leading to s
evere flooding in parts of the region with about 1000 fatalities. Stratospheric
ozone and the antarctic ozone hole: Very low temperatures activate chemical proc
esses which in the presence of sunlight result in rapid depletion of stratospher
ic ozone, for which emissions from supersonic aircrafts. chloro-fluoro-carbons (
CFCs) and environmental pollutiuo, etc., are mainly responsible. It causes serio
us health hazards due to solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the earth's s
urface which otherwise is absorbed by the ozone. Depletion of stratospheric ozon
e causes a hole in the atmosphere through which the solar UV radiation can pass
and reach the earth's surface resulting ir various diseases including skin cance
r for the living beings. The creation of Antarctic Ozone Hole is an example of t
his phenomena. During 2002, the Antarctic ozone hole was the smallest since 1988
. In early September. the hole was about half the size found in 2001 and 2000. I
n late September. an unprecedented event occurred when the ozone hole split into
two. The two holes were relatively small and each contained a core depleted of
more than 50 per cent of the ozone. In the following week, one of the holes loca
ted near South America dissipated into surrounding areas. The remaining ozone ho
le intensified briefly until mid-October. but then disappeared in early November
. Not only the 2002 ozone hole the smallest since 1988. it was also the shallowe
st and the
o.a U L (J.n
0.4 0.2 o 0:' ....
(d) Tropics, 1861 - 2002
~ .... g
~
E
80.2 c
0.0
~
04. 0.6 ..
6
1880
1900
- . .. ..J._.- ...,-, 1920 1940
-",
_..~ - --., -'"
-
1960
1980
2000
0B
U L
Of,
01\
(e) N. Hemisphere,
N of 20N, 1861
- 2002
~
~ ....
....
0.2
Q)
E 2
u
&5
00
.0.2
'."
-...--......-....
0.1\ -06
~
6 .0.8
1880
-1900
l
'
o
J,.
.,
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Q.4 o '"
(f) S. Hemisphere,
S of 205, 1861
- 2002
~ '" ....
00
E .02 o ..:: OA ~ c ~ () 6
":'.~;::~~W;i"
~ 6
-0.8 1880
.--, - --
..L.
1900
1920
1940
.
'
1960
'-
1980
.
, 2000
Fig. 1. Continued. shortest lived, which all depends upon the various meteorolog
ical conditions (Sehra. 1976) and environmental effects of atmospheric pollution
(Fishcer and Staehelin, 2003c). Arctic and antarctic sea ice: The use of satell
ites has greatly aided the monitoring of arctic and antarctic sea ice extent dur
ing the past three decades. After a period of rapid decline in the 1970s, the ex
tent of antarctic sea ice has exhibited little trend. Throughout the 1970s perio
d of record in the arctic. however, there has been a general downward trend in t
he arctic sea-ice extent, but there is also considerable variability from year t
o year. The extent of the sea-ice cover in the arctic ocean in September was low
er than in any previous September in the satellite
138
SehraP. S.
observation period since 1978. The most significant climatic anomalies and event
s which took place over the globe in the year 2002 are discussed by Anonymous (2
003e). Global crop production in 2002: In 2002, wheat production increased in co
untries in the European Union. Kazakhstan. Russia, Turkey, India, the Islamic Re
public of Iran and Pakistan and declined in Argentina, Australia, Brazil. Canada
, China. Eastern Europe, Mexico. Morocco. South Africa. Tunisia, Ukraine and the
USA, as shown in Fig. 2 (Anonymous. 2002). Likewise. coarse grain production in
creased in Australia, China. South Africa. Turkey and Ukraine and declined in Al
geria. Argentina. Brazil, Canada, Eastern Europe, Countries of the European Unio
n. India. Kazakhstan, Mexico, Morocco. Russia and the USA In the USA wheat produ
ction was down by 17 per cent from the 2001 level. Drought on the great plains c
ontributed to the sharp production decline. US wheat production was the lowest s
ince 1972, while the total harvest acreage was the lowest since 1970. Drought al
so adversely affected corn production in the westernmost corn belt. while a hot
dry summer followed an excessively wet spring in the Ohio valley. In Canada. gra
in production was down by significantly from 2001 due to a continuation of droug
ht on Prairies. National wheat the production fell by about 23 per cent and tota
l coarse grain production dropped by 13 per cent. mostly from the impact of drou
ght on Prairie barley. Corn production rose
by 8 per cent from the previous year due to improved growing conditions in the m
ain producing province of Ontario. Mexican corn production decreased by nearly 7
per cent due to lack of summer rains. In Russia. winter wheat typically account
s for about 50 per cent of total wheat production with spring wheat contributing
the remaining 50 per cent. An increase in area planted to winter wheat, along w
ith another season of overall favourable growing conditions resulted in a 6 per
cent from increase in total wheat production in 2002. Overall yield for spring w
heat declined from 2001, but still remained above the five-year average. Coarse
grain production declined by 4 per cent in 2002, mainly due to a drop in spring
barley yields. Corn production increased by 38 per cent in 2002 due to improved
weather over the region. In Ukraine, most of the wheat grown in the country cons
ists of winter varieties, which fell only slightly (about 1%) below the last yea
r's large crop. Coarse grain production in Ukraine remained
virtually unchanged from the previous year. Spring barley production rose by 3 p
er cent while corn production rose by 11 per cent from the previous year due to
more advantageous weather conditions at pollination. In K~zakhstan, most of the
wheat grown in the country is spring varieties, which increased by 3 per cent fr
om the previous year due to timely rains during the growing season. However, coa
rse grain production declined by 13 per cent, mostly in spring barley due to hot
and dry weather conditions. Across the European Union, 2002 wheat production in
creased by 13 per cent relative to the 2001 levels, due to favourable weather co
nditions and increased area, which was the second highest on the record. France,
Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and Spain produce about 85 per cent of the Europ
ean's total wheat production. In France, Italy, Spain and the UK, wheat producti
on was up by nearly 24, 15, 36 and 38 per cent
Journal of Maharashtra Agricultural Universities
139
respectively. In Germany, however, wet weather during the filling and harvest pe
riods caused wheat production to decrease by nearly 9 per cent despite increase
in area and the coarse grain production declined nearly by 16 per cent due to ex
cessively wet weather during maturation and harvesting. In France, favourable we
ather boosted coarse grain production by nearly 7 per cent. On the whole, Europe
an Union's 2002 grain production was virtually unchanged from its 2001 levels.
coarse grain production rose by 32 per cent. However, the combination of drought
and lower planting areas resulted in a decline of 30 and 62 per cetn in wheat p
roduction and 30 and 53 per cent in coarse grain production in Algeria and Tunis
ia, respectively. In South Asia, wheat production in India rose by 5 per cent in
2002 due to an increase in area and good winter weather conditions, whereas coa
rse grain production was lower by 21 per cent.
UTERATURE CITED
World Meteorol. Org. Bullet. 52 (3) : 264-269. Folland. C. K, N. A. Rayner, S. J
. Brown, T. M. Smith. S. S. P. Shen, D. E. Parker, 1. Macadam, P. D. Jones, R. N
. Jones, N. Nicholls and D. M. H. Sexton. 2001. Global temperature change and it
s uncertainties since 1861. Geophysical Res. Lett. 28 : 2621-2624.
Horton, E. B., D. E. Parker and L. V. Alexander. 2003. Global and regional
climate in 2002. Weather. 58 (9) : 324336.
Jones, P. O. 1994. Hemisphericsurface air temperature variations: A reanalysis
andan updateto 1993.J. Climate, : 1
1794-1802. Jones. P. D., T.J. Osborn, K R. Briffa,C. K Folland, E. B. Horton, L.
V. Alexander,D. E. Parker and N. A. Rayner. 2001. Adjusting for sampling densit
y in grid-box land ocean surface temperature time series. J. Geophysical Res. 10
6: 3371-3380. Parker, D. E., C. K Follandand M.Jackson. 1995. Marine surface tem
perature: Observed variations and data requirements. Climatic Change. 31 : 559-6
00. Sehra, P. S. 1976. Atmosphericstructure: Exploration over Antarctica and Int
erhemispheric comparison. Ph. D. thesis. Submited to Gujarat University, Ahmedab
ad,India,pp. 286.
Across Eastern Europe, wheat production decreased by 11 per cent due to decrease
d planting area and adverse weather, whereas the coarse grain production (mainly
winter barleyand corn) decreased by -nearly5 per cent from the last year's leve
ls due to the same reasons. In Hungary, drought reduced corn production by 22 pe
r cent. In north-western Africa and the middle east, timely growing season rainf
all in Morocco kept wheat production at the 2001 levels,while
Anonymous, 2003 a. The global climate system in 2002. World Meteorol. Org. Bulle
t.52 (3) :290-295.
~
Anonymous,2003 b. Globalcrop production review, 2002. World Meteorol. Org. Bulle
t.52 (3) : 295-299. Boodhod, Y. 2003. Our future climate. World Meteorol. Org. B
ullet. 52 (3) : 224-228. Cornford, S. G. 2003. The socio-economlc impacts of wea
ther events in 2002.
WorldMeteorol. rg. Bullet.52 (3) : O
269-290.
Fischer. A. and J. Staehelin, 2003 C. The Antarctic ozone hole: 1996-2002.