Plan

The United States federal government should end its embargo on
Cuba

LEADERSHIP ADV

LEADERSHIP ADV – 1AC
SCENARIO ONE: SOFT POWER:
Anti-Americanism is growing in Latin America – extending an olive
branch to Cuba is necessary to re-establish our regional soft power
Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy

Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis
Anti-Americanism has become the political chant de jour for leaders seeking longterm as well as short-term gains in Latin American elections. In Venezuela, the
anti-American rhetoric spewed by Hugo Chavez masks his otherwise autocratic
tendencies, while countries like Bolivia and Ecuador tilt further away from
Washington, both rhetorically and substantively. The former expelled the U.S. Ambassador in October 2008, and the latter
has refused to renew Washington's lease on an airbase traditionally used for counter-narcotics missions. The systemic
neglect for eight years during the Bush Administration meant that political capital
was never seriously spent dealing with issues affecting the region . Because of this, President
Bush was unable to get much headway with his proposal to reform immigration, and his free trade agreement with Colombia
encountered significant opposition in Congress. Recent examples of U.S. unilateralism, disregard

for
international law and norms, and a growing financial crisis, have all been seized
by a new generation of populist Latin American leaders who stoke anti-American
sentiment.
The region, however, is absolutely critical to our national interest and security. Over
thirty percent of our oil comes from Latin America - more than the U.S. imports
from the Middle East. Additionally, over half of the foreign-born population in the United States is Latin American,
meaning that a significant portion of American society is intrinsically tied to the region. n1 These immigrants, as well as their sons
and daughters, have already begun to take their place amongst America's social, cultural, and political elite.
Just south of America's borders, a deepening polarization is spreading throughout

the entire region. In the last few years ideological allies in Bolivia, Ecuador, and
Venezuela have written and approved new constitutions that have consolidated the
power of the executive, while extending - or in Venezuela's case eliminating presidential term limits. In Venezuela the polarization has been drawn along economic lines, whereby Chavez's base
of support continues to be poor Venezuelans. In Bolivia the polarization has been drawn along racial lines: the preamble to the new
Bolivian constitution, approved in January 2009, makes reference to the "disastrous colonial times," a moment in history that
Bolivians of Andean-descent particularly lament. Those regions in Bolivia with the most people of European or mixed descent have
consistently voted for increased provincial autonomy and against the constitutional changes proposed by President Morales.
Perhaps due to its sweeping changes, the new Constitution was rejected by four of Bolivia's nine provinces. n2 Like Bolivia, Latin
America is still searching for its identity.
[*191] Traditionally the U.S. has projected its influence by using varying

combinations of hard and soft power. It has been a long time since the U nited States
last sponsored or supported military action in Latin America, and although highly contextdependent, it is very likely that Latin American citizens and their governments would view any
overt display of American hard power in the region negatively. n3 One can only imagine the
fodder an American military excursion into Latin America would provide for a leader like Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, or Evo Morales
of Bolivia. Soft power, on the other hand, can win over people and governments without

resorting to coercion, but is limited by other factors.
The key to soft power is not simply a strong military, though having one helps, but rather an
enduring sense of legitimacy that can then be projected across the globe to
advance particular policies. The key to this legitimacy is a good image and a
reputation as a responsible actor on the global and regional stage. A good
reputation and image can go a long way toward generating goodwill, which
ultimately will help the U.S. when it tries to sell unpopular ideas and reforms in
the region. n4

n7 For fifty years. despite their small size. trade between China and Latin America is likely to grow during the next five years. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The absence of a strong American presence over the last eight years has also given China the opportunity to step in as a major player. n116 After signing a free trade agreement with Chile. n119 China also timed the release of a new policy paper on Sino-Latin American relations to coincide with President Hu's most recent trip to the region. US influence in Latin America is key to prevent Chinese crowd in – the impact is cyber war Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. but in 2007. and would go a long way toward creating goodwill. America must once again be admired if we are going to expect other countries to follow our example.S." But now the tables have turned. To be sure. leadership and cooperation.In order to effectively employ soft power in Latin America. but will increasingly have to make room for a new player. Washington will have to rely more heavily on diplomatic initiatives that shore up credibility rather than simply economic incentives and disincentives. Washington will have to not only strengthen its existing relationships in the region. In 2008. having disproportionately dominated Washington's policy toward the region for decades. but also win over new allies. who look to us for "ideas and solutions. and Latin America. or barometers of. China's interest in Latin America is also based on its increasingly assertive global political agenda. but particularly in Latin America. n6 As a result of its continuing tensions with Havana. n120 As China's role in Latin America increases. not lectures. Latin American governments that hoped to endear themselves to the U. where it is now the continent's third largest trading partner. every country in Latin America is a potential friend. trade between China and Latin America hovered around $ 13 billion. had to pass the Cuba "litmus test. will remain the major powerbroker in the Americas for decades to come.S. earn respect. a move heavily courted by Chinese officials. will have to pass a Cuba litmus test of its own. as has its ability to deal with other countries. both economically and politically. Given this diminishing economic position. Many of the problems facing Latin America today cannot be addressed in the absence of U. n118 Even despite the current financial crisis. In 2007. and by 2008 total trade was valued at $ 140 billion. must repair its image by going on a diplomatic offensive and reminding. American clout correspondingly decreases in terms of relative power.S. that number had increased to $ 102 billion. America's reputation [*192] in the region has suffered. President Hu rewarded Costa Rica's new policy by visiting San Jose and signing a free trade agreement in 2010. but also the Latin American people. To that end. if it wants to repair America's image in the region. China also [*224] recently displaced the U." These are organisms that." whereby China steps in to fill the gap left by America's absence.S. function as lynchpins for.S." n5 When analyzing ecosystems. Costa Rica dropped its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. and repair America's image. the entire system's stability . China quickly displaced the United States as that country's largest export market. is a keystone nation in Latin America. The Chinese government has invested a tremendous amount of soft power in Latin America . the U. . as well as political and economic exchanges. and the Obama Administration. despite its size and isolation. n8 In short. environmental scientists seek out "keystone species. in regions all around the world. such as bilateral trade agreements . n117 In 2000. cross-cultural educational exchanges. Although this proposal focuses heavily on Cuba. Working with other nations to address these challenges is the best way to shore up legitimacy. not just Latin America's leaders. It charts China's growing relationship with Latin America and promises increased cooperation in scientific and technological research. Cuba. the U.S. warming relations with Cuba would have a reverberating effect throughout Latin America. n115 American disinterest in Latin America has convinced many countries to adopt a "Pacific view.S. of the important relationship between the U. as Brazil's biggest trading partner. with an annual trade growth of 30% since 2001.

on the systemic level. n124 Another former Soviet base in Bejucal may now also house both Cuban and Chinese intelligence analysts. China has an incentive to develop technological capabilities in Cuba. 2000 (Michael. Separately. such as electrical power.and by that I mean those services that are vital to our economy and to our national security. the only thing standing between Beijing's re-appropriation of Taipei is Washington. Second. “Economic Integration. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic.-Sino relations. dyadic and national levels.000 tons of Cuban sugar. China purchases over 400. which can be used in tandem with cyber and communications warfare against Washington. This is because our nation's critical infrastructures -. including almost all of the computers. Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed to not only defer for ten years some of Cuba's debt payments. on a visit to Cuba. Goldsmith and Brauer. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. An increased Chinese presence in Cuba might be a strategic move by Beijing to later leverage their presence on the island for a change in America's Taiwan policy. n123 Moreover. China has a huge presence at Lourdes. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour . China is Cuba's second-largest trading partner with $ 2. telecommunications. FBI. if successful. 1995). p. who are bent on attacking U. As such. came from China. Ed.S. The same basic types of cyber attacks that therefore have become attractive to criminals are also attractive to foreign intelligence services . Development of such capabilities may already be happening. who seek new ways to obtain sensitive government or proprietary information. l/n) And this is not just a criminal problem. not ideological. a former Soviet espionage base just outside of Havana. and also to terrorists and hostile foreign nations.S. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major. exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin.(7B) China's Strategic Interest in Cuba China's presence in Cuba is rather significant: after Venezuela. as well as half its annual output of nickel. Economics of War and Peace: Economic. which is Cuba's top export. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U. where in 2004 Hu Jintao visited and confirmed that most of the technology housed there. transportation and government operations -. n121 In fact. In the unlikely event of hostile engagement with the United States. could deny service on a very broad scale. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent states. a greater American presence on the island would be needed to fully understand the scope of this rather disturbing operation. 1999). on a dyadic level. Cyber-attack would destroys the US economy Vatis. Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”. Several notable contributions follow. n122 In 2008. it is also a national security problem.3 billion worth of goods exchanged. And that dependence makes them vulnerable to an attack which . medium and small powers. Legal and Political Perspectives. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one preeminent leader to the next. n125 But China's leadership is pragmatic. First. China will have a stake in Cuba. 2/29. although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Federal News Service.S. China is neurotic about the functional American presence in Taiwan and has made its intentions for the island known to everyone. Copeland's (1996. interests. as long as Taiwan is a [*225] thorny issue for U. Congressional Testimony to the Subcommittee on Crime in the House and the Senate Subcommittee on Criminal Justice Oversight. Economic decline causes global war Royal 10 (Jedediah. 213-215) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. but also to invest $ 80 million in the island's health industry. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances.are now all dependent on computer technology for their very operations. Department of Defense. which begs the question: what is China getting in return for all this assistance? If China is cooperating with Cuban intelligence to spy on the United States. Alternatively. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Feaver.

but could potentially lead to a disproportionately high return by making regional cooperation more likely.4 Third. Washington must find a way to cooperate with its neighbors. proliferation of weapons of mass destruction). and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. experience a massive migration to Florida. and cannot be overstated. If the state were to collapse. Hess. the ailing economy. & Weerapana.-Latin America relationship. become a major drug trafficking center. face a humanitarian crisis. particularly during periods of economic downturn. They write: The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. recent economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. However. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources.S. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis [*195] Third.. if the expectations of future trade decline. Latin America's importance to the United States is growing by the day. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. Miller (1999). dyadic and national levels. as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. addressing these concerns might also prevent more serious problems in the future.S. climate change. (Blomberg & Hess. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations.5 This implied connection between integration. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. In summary. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. These three reasons combine for a perfect storm: to the extent that a healthy U. the Obama Administration ignores Latin America at its own peril.-Cuba relations is obviously of smaller import than many other issues currently affecting the world (i. The plan leads to broader cooperation and influence in the region and globally Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other.S. n20 In order to confront any of the major world issues facing the United States.e. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. Aside from the strategic importance of this issue. 2004). However. crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. addressing it would also involve correspondingly less effort than those issues. 2002. which in turn returns the favour.S. when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. who generally view U.S. Hess. the threat is nevertheless real. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated.of states. policy toward Cuba as the most glaring symbol of its historic inability to constructively engage the region. one that has been absent for the last fifty years. p. Gelpi (1997). sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. the former should be pursued with an unprecedented vigor. and Blomberg. While the issue of U. a new . the likelihood for conflict increases. Moreover. Wang (1996).-Cuban relationship would mean a healthier U. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict. "Diversionary theory" suggests that. Although the chances of a post-Castro Cuba becoming a failed state are slim. and thus weak Presidential popularity. which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Furthermore. or endure a combination of each. DeRouen (1995). the island could plunge into civil war.

Brazil and other Latin¶ American nations are assuming enhanced roles on an array of global political. Latin America has the¶ opportunity to participate more actively in nonproliferation efforts. such as in the World Trade Organization and the G-20 (Mexico.¶ This may position them as a voice in international debates on this topic. as well as in the leakage—or transfer¶ of nuclear materials—to terrorists. The United States and Brazil have ¶ clashed over such issues as Iran’s nuclear program.¶ Latin Americans are taking more active leadership on drug policy in the¶ hemisphere and could become increasingly influential in global discussions ¶ of drug strategies. Washington has worked with Brazil ¶ and other Latin American countries to raise the profile In addition to economic and financial matters. it should support coordination on the presumption¶ of shared interests on a critical policy challenge .¶ Although US and Latin American interests do not always converge¶ on non-proliferation questions.¶ The importance of the Amazon basin to worldwide climate concerns¶ gives Brazil and five other South American nations a special role to play. and other countries of¶ the region in world forums addressing shared interests .e. ¶ environmental. and in efforts to¶ rebuild and provide security for Haiti.and comprehensive policy toward Cuba can help prevent these nightmare scenarios from materializing. Brazil could play a pivotal role. non-proliferation. Several for which US and Latin¶ American cooperation could become increasingly important include:¶  As the world’s lone nuclear-weapons-free region.” April. This cooperation and influence is key to solve existential crisis Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report.pdf) Many of the issues on the hemispheric agenda carry critical global ¶ dimensions. In that context. hosted the second international meeting on climate change in Cancún in ¶ 2010. n21 To address the issues confronting the United States vis-a-vis Latin America (i. Although the United States and Latin America¶ are often at odds on drug policy. Washington must restore its heavily damaged image and regain its place as the region's trendsetter and leader.thedialogue.¶ Mexico of emerging economies¶ in various international financial agencies. will host Rio+20. labor and human rights). Still. but they have cooperated when their interests ¶ converged. For¶ example.¶ Even as Latin America expands its global reach and presence. “Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America. and security issues. it is important¶ that the United States and the region increase their attention to reshaping¶ regional institutions to better align them with current realities and ¶ challenges and to make them more effective. including the World Bank ¶ and the International Monetary Fund. The hemisphere’s institutional¶ architecture is in great flux.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL. Mexico¶ The United States is handicapped by its inability to devise a climate¶ change policy. more effective¶ approach to the problem. and ¶ the Middle East uprisings. Part of America's greatness is its ability to inspire practical solutions in people.¶ already has assumed a prominent position on climate change and ¶ is active in global policy debates. Any new U. Online: http://www.¶ Argentina.-Cuban policy should embrace not only America's uncanny ability to reinvent itself. they align on some related goals . Resolving America's "Cuba problem" is a low-cost/high-reward strategy that would inject new energy and credibility into America's image. they have mutual interests and goals¶ that should allow consultation and collaboration on a new. but also the pragmatism that has made America so great to begin with. In recent years it has become far more active on global ¶ issues of concern to the United States. trade. the United States should seek greater¶ cooperation and consultation with Brazil.S. The Eight Recommendations found in this proposal are suggestions that the Obama Administration should consider as it moves to reengage Latin America. south-south connections¶ are crucial. and there is growing need for decisions about¶ priorities and objectives.¶  Many countries in the region give priority to climate change challenges. drugs. 2012 (IAD is a think tank hosting 100 leaders and experts from the US and Latin America. . and Canada also participate in the G-20). this year. Mexico. the main proliferation challenges today are found in developing¶ and unstable parts of the world. Brazil organized the first-ever global ¶ environmental meeting in 1992 and. There is no doubt that America's diminished image in Latin America means that it will face additional difficulty when trying to accomplish its regional goals. the environment. Because of this..¶ Brazil has the broadest international presence and influence of any Latin¶ American nation.

the variability of weather patterns. decisionmakers must look dispassionately at potential energy partners in terms of the role they might play in meeting political.S. Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha. energy security and satisfying energy demand. PhD.S. In public discussions. Mexico and Venezuela. not to mention since 2008. because deterioration of the infrastructure continues and eventually pushes up the cost of renovation and replacement. 2010.¶ The United States and Cuba will have a unique opportunity to employ a highly educated and competent cadre of Cuban engineers and technicians to work in critical areas of the energy sector.S. This will deploy an underused segment of the Cuban workforce.S. universities. the price tag is estimated to be in the billions of dollars.S. Cuba’s energy infrastructure. energy supply requires a much broader.S. The assessment from U. Florida International University. energy security . that objective . representatives from American companies. The Obama administration has signaled that it wants to reinvigorate inter-American cooperation venture partners on the island. The Cubans have gained invaluable knowledge and experience through the operation and construction of energy facilities in collaboration with their joint- The United States possesses few options when it comes to balancing the various risks to U. more flexible view on the quest for resources—a view that does not shun a source from a potential strategic partner for purely political reasons.S. “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation” Conclusion and Recommendations Undoubtedly. oil. it may pave the way to establishing much-needed familiarity and confidence across these communities . U. ¶ The energy-security environment for the United States is at a critical juncture. trade organizations. Now. The critical need to improve the integrity of the U. and may be central to.S. energy experts on the technical acumen and capability of Cuban energy officials has been overwhelmingly positive . and the United States needs to articulate a new vision of how best to manage international energy interdependence. government and the Obama administration see fit to shift its policy so as to allow broader participation of American academics and practitioners in the energy field to attend conferences and meet with Cuban energy officials. Mexico. and geostrategic objectives of U. it would remain dependent on oil imports to meet its existing and future demand. directly and indirectly. Anecdotal evidence suggests that these contacts and exchanges have been wildly successful because of the Cubans’ high level of competence and strong work ethic.when Fidel Castro officially stepped aside as Cuba’s president. and allow U.9 Should the U. and the supporting energy infrastructure in both countries is in need of significant revitalization. even if the United States were to choose to exploit all of its domestic energy resources. is in need of significant repair and modernization (its many energy projects notwithstanding). the policy tools available to deal with energy supply disruptions are increasingly inadequate. construction. The Cubans have accumulated experience and training from past energy cooperation projects and exchanges in Cuba. after fifty years of enmity. Brookings Institution book. It also stands to reason that the lion’s Changes in U. energy independence is not attainable. Since 2004.S. and other countries in the region. The productive capacity of two of the United States’ largest oil suppliers. and engineering firms to subcontract work to an emerging class of Cuban firms specializing in these areas. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO.S.SCENARIO TWO: HARD POWER: Lifting the embargo is essential to US-Cuba oil cooperation – key to solve independence from Middle East oil Benjamin-Alvadaro 10 – Jonathan Benjamin-Alvadaro. This is plain from the almost quaint maintenance of a sanctions regime that seeks to isolate Cuba economically and politically but hardly reflects the dramatic changes that have occurred on the island since 1991. and think tanks have had the opportunity to meet with Cuban energy officials. oil technologies. The scope and objectives of Cuban energy development schemes have been disseminated. The vagaries of the politics in the region. there is a significant lack of trust and confidence between the United States and Cuba. too. because U. and discussed across a number of settings where the interested parties are now familiar with and well versed in the agendas and opportunities that exist in this arena. Venezuela. Treasurer of the American Political Science Association. oil and gas industry and using state-of-the. dissected. policy to allow investment and assistance in Cuba’s energy sector are a precondition for international entities to make significant investments . In particular. . Cuban energy authorities have made it clear that their preferred energy development scenario includes working closely with the U. a movement toward energy cooperation and development with Cuba is consistent with. has declined. economic.art U. the opportunity to advance relations in the energy arena appears to be ripe. yet this change share of the financial burden of upgrading Cuba’s energy infrastructure will fall to the United States.¶ and integration . Delaying work on many of these projects increases costs. and the overall dismal state of the global economy create a setting of instability and uncertainty that requires close attention to the national security interests of the United States vis-à-vis energy. Report for the Cuban Research Institute.S.

S. but the United States will have to make special provisions that create commercial and trade openings for energy development that serve its broad geostrategic and national security goals. “The Economy and National Security. perhaps. leadership LeVine 11 Steve LeVine is a writer for Foreign Policy.S. The United States could provide much-needed additional investment capital in the development of upstream. The U."¶ But what does this mean in the big picture? First. technologies needed for oil and gas exploration and production. social. and Brazil have profound political. is in a much stronger position. Iraq. Because the policies can be considered works-in-progress. policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow. and adds storage and transit capabilities while enhancing regional cooperation and integration modalities. " U. http://oilandglory. as a global superpower :¶ The notion that the solace in the volumes further afield.com/posts/2011/11/01/is_this_group_think_or_is_the_us_a bout_to_be_energy_independent?wpisrc=obinsite What could undermine the prognoses is if the result is relatively low oil prices.nationalreview. To be sure one can do it for a long period of time.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-securityzalmay-khalilzad We face this domestic challenge while other major powers are experiencing rapid economic growth. we have seen a parade of relatively resource-poor nations carve out significant global economic and geopolitical places for themselves over the decades.currently. or is the U. as it has in the case of food and medicine sales to Cuba. trade deficit.S. November 1. cooperation with Cuba in energy just may create an opportunity for the United States to improve its portion of the needed investment capital to undertake this colossal effort. His reply:¶ Superpower status really does depend over time on lots of abilities to deliver public goods for a wide variety of others.S. Oil independence strengthens U.” online: http://www. we risk a new era of multi-polarity. crude oil imports account for 44 percent of the U. In modern .implies a large American footprint. and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Mexico and a handful of other friendly countries such as Brazil. diversifies regional refining capacity. ¶ This discussion is intended to help distill understanding of U. 2011. Still. This does not mean that the United States has to dismantle the nearly fiftyyear-old embargo against Cuba. foreign policy for the near and long term.foreignpolicy. strategic energy policy under a set of shifting political and economic environmental conditions in Cuba and its implications for U. If U. Crooks finds Even if the most optimistic hopes are not fulfilled.since oil is fungible and can be bought freely by anyone with the money.¶ I was left puzzled by that formulation of how the world works -. China imports much of its oil and natural gas. and undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of escalation. and logistical resources in Cuba that simultaneously addresses Petrocaribe objectives. which will then potentially cut into the returns from such undertakings. Trade and investment in the energy sector in Cuba have been severely constrained by the conditions of the embargo placed on the Cuban regime. American private investment and U. imports oil only from Canada. America's trade balance would improve considerably -. government assistance will constitute a large The longer that work is delayed. Crooks writes. If we don’t get our economic house in order. if it can demonstrate that it can serve as a partner (or at a minimum.S. it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge.S.S. it also means a new day for the U. which would erode millions of barrels of oil a day. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. downstream. was a superpower in the 20th century but won't be in the 21st doesn't hold up so well now. But according to Citigroup oil economist Edward Morse (quoted by Crooks). why would relative American power abruptly reverse course compared with China's simply because one has and the other lacks oil ? I emailed Morse to find out. stands an excellent chance of access to both. February 8.S.S. it's hard to write off an economy that has these two pillars of long-term strength. The U. The closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify geopolitical competition among major powers .S. which is going to be overwhelmingly dependent on energy imports. Even though countries such as China. a supporter) of the Petrocaribe energy consortium. the United States ambassador to Afghanistan. relations with Venezuela. Japan for example imports 98 percent of its oil. and this could alter the global distribution of power. China might or might not have access to cheap energy feedstocks and to virtual self-sufficiency . Compare it to a country such as China. not to mention metals.¶ U." he one can imagine a future in which the U. energy dependence is a severe handicap for being able to do that. about to be energy-independent?”. So US global leadership is vital to protecting the globe from wars Khalilzad 11 – Zalmay Khalilzad. the higher the cost to all the investors. their economies are growing faster than ours. an understanding of possible outcomes is important to those crafting future policy and making changes in the policymaking milieu. but not readily forever. India. demographic. and economic problems. “Is this group think. These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world. ¶ The stakes are high.S. increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another. These constraints also affect foreign firms seeking to do business in Cuba because of the threat of penalties if any of these firms use technology containing more than 10 percent of proscribed U. 2011.S. and a resumption of America's gluttonous gasoline appetite.S.S. but still in the Western Hemisphere: " writes.

with their competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers. Japan. weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the U nited States. ultimately. in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers. Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars. multi-polar systems have been unstable. the United States is the most significant barrier facing Chinese hegemony and aggression. long-range stealth aircraft. and Southeast Asian states. or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict . By contrast.¶ American retrenchment could have devastating consequences . Without an American security blanket. Under this scenario. Alternatively.S. Asia in particular is likely to emerge as a zone of great-power competition. and ballistic missiles.history. Beijing’s economic rise has enabled a dramatic military buildup focused on acquisitions of naval. miscalculation . and anti-satellite capabilities. India. hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions. there would be a heightened possibility of arms races. China’s strategic modernization is aimed. . cruise. the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U. China’s expansive territorial claims — and provocative statements and actions following crises in Korea and incidents at sea — have roiled its relations with South Korea. Even as cooperative economic ties in the region have grown. Either way. regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats. at denying the United States access to the seas around China. Still.¶ As rival powers rise. leadership .

or elimination-requires the help of others. the potential backlash against American companies. containment. partly because few Asian states view the United States as a neutral. and drug trafficking can only be managed through forms of multilateral cooperation that depend on America's ability to persuade other nations. In addition. pg. . In the run-up to the Iraq War. visiting scholar in the Carnegie Endowment’s China Program. Newer. Dec 2005.fies U. lead. and drug trafficking."2 Military power remains the foundation of U. trouble on the far side of the planet. and instead has had to resort to threatening sanctions at the United Nations or even the possibility of strikes against Iran. accessed 07/10/07 A broad decline in soft power has many practical implications. ership is essential to meet these threats successfully.S.S. proliferation. concluding that unilateral might makes right. J. silencing critics and creating a bandwagon effect among friends. a longtime US ally. 284) Why should the United States care that some criticize its policies and others resent its power? Following U. Washington has had to allow China to play a central role. disease. the White House has been unable to lead a multinational effort to halt Iran's nuclear program. Washington is simply less able to persuade others. successfully applied. it is harder for leaders in these countries to openly embrace counterterrorism cooperation with the United States. Blinken 03 (Antony J.. More than ever before. “Winning the War of Ideas.fend vital American interests. in part because America's image in Turkey was so poor. But because we have demonstrated astonishing military power and the will to de. pg. war. a fact that even the White House recognizes. and the possibility that anti-US sentiment will make it easier for terrorist groups to recruit. such as economic disaster. now more than ever. These include the drain in foreign talent coming to the United States. and WMD threats. disease. Globalization is erasing borders that once protected the United States. so is followership. advanced technology. in addition to rooting out and destroying individual militant cells. legitimate broker in the talks. outbreak of disease. influence.S. with a decline in soft power. while empowering its enemies. security. Lennon. 104. The 2002 National security Strategy emphasizes that winning the war on terror requires the United States to lead a battle of ideas against the ideological roots of terrorism. unilaterally if necessary. Terrorism itself cannot be defeated by force alone. .” The Battle for Hearts and Minds: edited by Alexander T. Washington must increasingly resort to the other option Nye discusses-force. Iss. or theft of a weapon of mass destruction. is tempting. we would go it alone.. Instead. 686. Rogue states. “The Decline of American Soft Power. Force is not a long-term solution. human trafficking.stan.S. however. With foreign governments and publics suspicious of American policy. "We made it plain that even if no one followed us. again in part because of America's negative image in countries ranging from India to Germany In attempts to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons. and religious fanatics use the nation's very strengths-its openness. outlaw actors. Joshua Kurlantzick. human trafficking. terrorism. US leadership is key to solving the economy. Thus. however. Vol. As Charles Krauthammer wrote.Soft Power – General Impacts Soft Power is key to solving competitiveness. the transnational nature of the problems the United States faces defies unilateral solutions.” Current History. as demonstrated on September 11. senior fellow at CSIS. military success in Afghani. Not because they love us. Not because we have embraced multilateralism. the growing attractiveness of China and Europe. can quickly become a plague on the United States' house. and freedom of movement-against it. to play a major staging role. so Washington resorts to quiet arm-twisting and blandishments to obtain counterterror concessions. the United States has failed to obtain significant participation from all but a handful of major nations. or the threat of force. During the war itself. Surprise: others followed. the Bush administration could not convince Turkey. 419. With America's image declining in nations like Thailand and Pakistan. nontraditional security threats such as disease. proquest. U. Whatever response the United States chooses-engagement. it magni.

¶ At the same time. have embraced the notion of American exceptionalism with such fervor that they can’t discern the world transformation occurring before their eyes. remain on the margins of policy debates in Washington D. and U. However. Orbis. The Global Power Shift from West to East. Second. sharing between the United States and China is unlikely to work for no U. lexis) THE CONSTELLATION of world power is changing. Pax Americana also is winding down. resource. not to mention a rival United States that shows no sign of lapsing into terminal decline despite its current economic travails . it is a given that the United States will define its interests globally and pursue a strategy that requires capable military forces able to project power around the world. Gates Chair in National Security at Texas A & M University’s George H. The Euro-Atlantic world had a long run of global dominance. Because ‘‘indirect’’ counter-strategies are the rational choice for actors facing a strong state’s power projection. while popular in some segments of academia. All their turns are inevitable . the United States is very likely to remain fully engaged in global affairs.S. An Asian Security Standoff. of course. Mike. economic and demographic challenges. Spring) It is important to recognize at the outset two key points about United States strategy and the potential costs and benefits for the United States in a changing security environment.C. at present. While superficially appealing because it holds out the prospect of a peaceful transition to a new international order.24 . W.US will be more violent and desperate post-decline Dupont June 2012 (Alan. Nor is it guaranteed to last. just as China wouldn’t if the roles were reversed.International Relations at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Advocates of restraint or global withdrawal. First. Bush School of Government and Public Service. but it is coming to an end. Australia. This could always change. power two reasons. irregular/asymmetric threats are inevitable given America’s role in the global order. Even Layne agrees.S. First. would voluntarily relinquish power to China.the US won’t just give up Layne June 2012 (Chris. The problem is that many Americans. professor and Robert M. grand strategy will have to change with it. The National Interest. Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. China’s new great-power status is hardly untrammeled. Beijing may have to confront the prospect of a resurgent Washington determined to reassert its strategic interests.AT: Heg Bad – Hard Power Inevitable Decline makes all their turns worse. lexis) What of the argument that America should accept the inevitable and share power with China as an equal? Paralleling the G-2 would be an Asia-2. for the country faces formidable environmental. regardless of its political complexion. The future is more likely to be shaped by the East. The National Interest.Philadelphia. professor of international security and director of the Institute for International Security and Development at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. Sooner than it thinks. administration. allowing Beijing and Washington to divide the region into spheres of influence in much the same way as the United States and the Soviet Union managed a politically bifurcated Europe during the early part of the Cold War. particularly among the elites. American elites must come to grips with the fact that the West does not enjoy a predestined supremacy in international politics that is locked into the future for an indeterminate period of time. The United States can manage this relative decline effectively over the next couple of decades only if it first acknowledges the fundamental reality of decline . Graduate Student in the PhD Program in Political Science .Zero Chances of willful US restraint – we’ll inevitably be engaged globally – the only question is effectiveness Shalmon and Horowitz 09 (Dan.

The resulting clash of interests between the two sides has seldom been resolved peacefully . to have what they consider to be their rightful say in the affairs of their region and of the wider world. it is driven instead by forces that are deeply rooted in the shifting structure of the international system and in the very different domestic political regimes of the two Pacific powers. when a new. in general. and the potential for conflict particularly fraught. feeding its ambitions and triggering a spiral of escalating demands. ascendant states typically feel impelled to challenge territorial boundaries. by the status quo and struggle against it to take what they think is rightfully theirs. This. rising powers feel constrained. . thereby fueling the frustrations and resentments of the rising power. even cheated. an aggressor may have ambitions that are so extensive as to be impossible for the status quo powers to satisfy without effectively consigning themselves to servitude or committing national suicide. with its Shakespearean overtones of youth and age. rising powers want their place in the sun . As a nation’s capabilities grow. Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics. to protect their citizens far from home. The National Interest. But these countries are not just any two great powers: Since the end of the Cold War the United States has been the richest and most powerful nation in the world. Sometimes the reason clearly lies in the demands of the rising state. but around the world. is what brings them into conflict with the established great powers —the so-called status quo states—who are the architects.” but China is fast gaining ground.history proves Friedberg 2011 (July/August. by contrast. vigor and decline. The stakes are about as high as they can get. As far back as the fifth century BC the great Greek historian Thucydides began his study of the Peloponnesian War with the deceptively simple observation that the war’s deepest. or Germany at the turn of the twentieth. international institutions and hierarchies of prestige that were put in place when they were still relatively weak.S.-China relationship is competitive. America is still “number one.perception of weakness spurs war. not only in Asia. they look for ways to satisfy their demands and ambitions and seek to incorporate them peacefully into the existing international order. Others—hoping to avoid war—have taken the opposite approach: attempting to appease potential challengers . to promulgate their religious or ideological beliefs. China is. have so often been marked by war. lexis) THE UNITED States and the People’s Republic of China are locked in a quiet but increasingly intense struggle for power and influence. taking steps to ensure access to markets. Recognizing the growing threat to their position. is simply no surprise. Throughout history. then. materials and transportation routes. of course. to defend their foreign friends and allies.” The fact that the U. Even when the demands being made of them are less onerous. the nascent SinoAmerican rivalry is not merely the result of misperceptions or mistaken policies. Aaron L. Like Japan in the late nineteenth century.AT: Heg Bad .Transition  War Transition from US dominance causes conflict. these efforts have almost always ended in failure. the dominant states are often either reluctant to make concessions.. Established powers tend to regard themselves as the defenders of an international order that they helped to create and from which they continue to benefit. And in spite of what many earnest and well-intentioned commentators seem to believe. is among the oldest in recorded history. and. This means that those in ascendance typically attempt not only to secure their borders but also to reach out beyond them. Indeed. rising states tend to be troublemakers. ascending power begins to overtake the previously dominant state. or too eager to do so. this story line. dominant powers (or a coalition of status quo states) have occasionally tried to attack and destroy a competitor before it can grow strong enough to become a threat. principal beneficiaries and main defenders of any existing international system. At least insofar as the dominant powers are concerned. Successful policies of appeasement are conceivable in theory but in practice have proven devilishly difficult to implement. As was true of Adolf Hitler’s Germany. professor of politics and international affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University. This is why periods of transition. truest cause was “the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta. As they begin to assert themselves. its leaders generally define their interests more expansively and seek a greater degree of influence over what is going on around them. the state whose capabilities have been growing most rapidly. But however sincere. relations between dominant and rising states have been uneasy—and often violent.

The defining characteristic of our age is not a shift of power upward to supranational institutions. targeting oil tankers. The reality was political fragmentation. A coming retreat into fortified cities. maybe even believed that they did. and capital—has raised living standards throughout the world. but downward. say. These are the Dark Age experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving. nor an all-embracing Empire of Heaven. Technology has transformed production. while Western nations frantically concentrated on making their airports secure. Foreign Policy ) Could an apolar world today produce an era reminiscent of the age of Alfred? It could.S. the International Monetary Fund. was not a global Christendom. With the end of states' monopoly on the means of violence and the collapse of their control over channels of communication. and China—retreating into their own regional spheres of influence . and cruise liners. Houston or Chicago. Islamist extremists' infiltration of the EU would become irreversible. Western investors would lose out and conclude that lower returns at home are preferable to the risks of default abroad. Europe. In short. however. These groups can operate. All the empires claimed to rule the world. the free flow of destructive technology empowers both criminal organizations and terrorist cells.” Surely their aspirations to global governance are fundamentally different from the spirit of the Dark Ages? Yet universal claims were also an integral part of the rhetoric of that era. increasing trans-Atlantic tensions over the Middle East to the breaking point. visit. too. For more than two decades. “A World without Power”. The wealthiest ports of the global economy—from New York to Rotterdam to Shanghai—would become the targets of plunderers and pirates. Meanwhile. globalization—the integration of world markets for commodities. from Hamburg to Gaza.Heg Solves War Collapse of US hegemony causes a global power vacuum resulting in nuclear war Ferguson 04 professor of history at New York University's Stern School of Business and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University (Niall. that this Dark Age would be an altogether more dangerous one than the Dark Age of the ninth century. humanity has entered an era characterized as much by disintegration as integration. By contrast. or do business. The trouble is. of course. For the world is much more populous—roughly 20 times more—so friction between the world's disparate “tribes” is bound to be more frequent. It is. one can imagine the world's established powers—the United States. With ease. unaware of the existence of other civilizations. it would inevitably become a less open society. so it is now possible not just to sack a city but to obliterate it. An economic meltdown in China would plunge the Communist system into crisis. unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires. wherever they choose. as Europe's Muslim enclaves grew. the World Bank. leadership after the Second World War? The United Nations. As the United States sought to protect itself after a second September 11 devastates. So what is left? Waning empires.AT: Heg Bad . it is the nonstate actors who truly wield global power—including both the monks and the Vikings of our time. But what of the growing pretensions to autonomy of the supranational bodies created under U. and the World Trade Organization (formerly the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) each considers itself in some way representative of the “international community. terrorists could disrupt the freedom of the seas. If free flows of information and of means of production empower multinational corporations and nongovernmental organizations (as well as evangelistic religious cults of all denominations). some. less hospitable for foreigners seeking to work. . The reversal of globalization— which a new Dark Age would produce—would certainly lead to economic stagnation and even depression. Technology has upgraded destruction. Certainly. except where countries have shut themselves off from the process through tyranny or civil war. And that is also true today. increasingly confined to a few Page 5 strategic cities such as Kabul and Pristina. labor. Religious revivals. Incipient anarchy. The worst effects of the new Dark Age would be felt on the edges of the waning great powers. it seems. now human societies depend not merely on freshwater and the harvest but also on supplies of fossil fuels that are known to be finite. though with some important and troubling differences. the writ of the international community is not global at all. aircraft carriers. The reality. in fact.

perhaps ending catastrophically in the Middle East. First. Spring 1995. RAND Corporation. “Losing the Moment?” The Washington Quarterly 18. the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future.2. or even a return to the good old balance of power. In Africa.S.S. U. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself. the prospect of an apolar world should frighten us today a great deal more than it frightened the heirs of Charlemagne. and the rule of law. Second.Meanwhile. such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems. and low-level conflicts. the great plagues of AIDS and malaria would continue their deadly work. such as nuclear proliferation. It would be apolarity—a global vacuum of power. the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -. including a global nuclear exchange. who would wish to leave their privately guarded safe havens to go there? For all these reasons. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system. If the United States retreats from global hegemony — its fragile self-image dented by minor setbacks on the imperial frontier—its critics at home and abroad must not pretend that they are ushering in a new era of multipolar harmony. this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers. Finally. limited nuclear wars could devastate numerous regions. .S. wretchedly poor citizens would seek solace in Evangelical Christianity imported by U. The alternative to unipolarity would not be multipolarity at all.democracy. religious orders . threats of regional hegemony by renegade states. free markets. U. And far more dangerous forces than rival great powers would benefit from such a not-so-new world disorder Lack of hegemony  extinction Khalilzad. but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. beginning in the Korean peninsula and Kashmir. Lexis. On balance. The few remaining solvent airlines would simply suspend services to many cities in these continents.) Under the third option. Be careful what you wish for. In Latin America. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival. Rand Corporation 1995 (Zalmay Khalilzad.

the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced. http://www. Britain or the United States today. the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly. In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for investment.. The very source of life on Earth. Today. PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN THE 1990S. growing democratization-is directly linked to U. increasing respect for human rights. accountability. Without U.( n3) So. As country and western great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it).carnegie.Heg Solves Democracy Heg promotes democracy Thayer 6 (Bradley A.S.AT: Heg Bad . power. American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned--between Greece and Turkey. and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency. p.. American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world. Rather.S. In addition. more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U. And so. Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against one another. with its provisions for legality. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists.” National Interest. in general. as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue. Indeed they do. and enduring trading partnerships. who organize to protest the destruction of their environments . Nov/Dec2006 Issue 86.html) Nuclear. India and Pakistan. Democratic countries form more reliable. popular sovereignty and openness. open. American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism: Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because. 1995. Everything we think of when we consider the current international order--free trade. Prof of Defense and Strategic Studies @ Missouri State University. appears increasingly endangered. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests. December. Most of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy. leadership. liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview.S. Democracy solves extinction Diamond 95 (Larry Diamond. U. They do not build weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another. South Korea and Japan. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. They are more environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own citizens. spreading democracy helps maintain U.org//sub/pubs/deadly/diam_rpt. it is important to note what those good things are. the global ecosystem. it is because they are more open. particularly war's worst form: great power wars. Indonesia and Australia . democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United States. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war. but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood. Israel and Egypt. .S. The first has been a more peaceful world. Second.S. Stanford University. a robust monetary regime. once states are governed democratically. chemical and biological weapons continue to proliferate. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders." Consequently. “In Defense of Primacy. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse. such as in Darfur. Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened.S. peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power -Rome. p32-37) Throughout history. Democratic governments do not ethnically "cleanse" their own populations . power behind it. most notably France and West Germany. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics. Hoover Institution. Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one another. During the Cold War. power. primacy. The experience of this century offers important lessons.

Lexis) In contrast. So the apologies and bows don’t go over well here at home. etc. friendship and values are liabilities. however trivial. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom. To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression.” http://www. but not as part of a deliberate pattern. whom it will bite or when. BC: With what country then — Venezuela.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disasterobama/showLastReply Dr. Hanson: Obama is one bow and one apology away from a circus . etc. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics. Washington cannot call a "time out". Stanford University) December 2009 “Change. Iran. 2) I think he will drop the reset/“Bush did it” throat-clearing soon. while insidiously There’s an outside shot that North Korea might do something really stupid near the 38th parallel and China will ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan. Russia. Venezuela will probably cook up some scheme to do a punitive border raid into Colombia to apprise South America that U. does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat. Syria.AT: Heg Bad – Heg Solves Deterrence Heg collapse emboldens rogues – it signals weakness Thayer. after a year. then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from Causes global wars that escalate – perception is key Victor Davis Hanson (Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution. Missouri State University (Bradley A. In other words. Venezuela. I would expect. The world can understand a kowtow gaffe to some Saudi royals. Americans hate whining and blamegaming. for any president to keep scapegoating a prior administration. Hanson: Two considerations: 1) It’s hard (in addition to being shameless). The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics. Italy. it will be 1979 redux. BC: Can Obama get any more mileage from his perpetually played “I’m not George W. — do you believe his global repositioning will cause the most damage? Dr. a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half-pledges to defend its interests and allies. one more will be really toxic. Disaster. Iran to get the bomb and begin to threaten ever so insidiously its Gulf neighborhood. poll-wise. as regional hegemons. Ditto the mea culpas. wishing to redraw the existing landscape — whether China. Bush” card or is that card past its expiration date? Dr. as his polls continue to stay below 50 percent. Hanson: I think all three. history shows that threats must be confronted. when we saw the rise of radical Islam. North Korea. retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy. rogue states or rising powers. — are just waiting to see who’s going to be the first to try Obama — and whether Obama really will be as tenuous as they expect. If he slips once. Indeed.” National Interest. I think we got off the back of the tiger and now no one quite knows pressuring autonomous former republics to get back in line with some sort of new Russian autocratic commonwealth. Weakness. “In Defense of Primacy. Iran. We are now in a great waiting game. 06 – Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home". or France are no better under Obama — and probably worse — than during the Bush administration. Most are starting to see that our relations with Britain. and it cannot hide from threats. India’s borders with both Pakistan and China will heat up.. in the next three years.S. etc . . Germany.resistnet. predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson. the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States. politically speaking. the Iranian hostage mess. Pakistan. Whether they are terrorists. it seems to be a losing trope. the communist inroads in Central America. and Russia will continue its energy bullying of Eastern Europe . November/December. Much of diplomacy rests on public perceptions.

and integrate individual technologies into cohesive military systems. In a separate study. especially in littorals and low-‐altitudes close to enemy territory. but it is often incremental and nonlinear.20: Share of World Arms Transfer Agreements. PhD candidate at the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences at Columbia. weak adversaries can impose significant costs. technological. some experts believe China’s “anti-area. The PLA may look increasingly respectable on paper.209 There are reasons to doubt this claim – the Pentagon is developing sophisticated countermeasures and Chinese writings may purposefully exaggerate PLA capabilities.212 Sixty years ago.…The military balance today and for the foreseeable future strongly favors the United States and its allies. Dissertation found on google scholar) More important. share of the world conventional arms market surged to 68 percent while China’s share dropped below 1. The Unipolar Era: Why American Power Persists and China’s Rise Is Limited. 71. the gap in defense spending likely understates the true military gap because U. From 1961 to 1968 North Vietnamese and Vietcong units brought down 1. The best that can be done is to make plans for the future on the basis of present trends. p. and military lead over China will be an enduring feature of international relations . China projected a huge army into Korea and killed tens of thousands of U. as measured by per capita income. relative to the United States.S. In the coming decades.”207 Figure 3. or even declining. helicopters and aircraft with simple antiaircraft artillery and no early warning radar.” compensating for its technological and organizational inferiority by utilizing asymmetric strategies. p.211 It is certainly true. Iraq circa 1991. But this has always been the case. say.. not a passing moment in time. even after controlling for numerous material. the U.S.210 There is also reason to doubt the strategic importance of China’s capabilities because the United States may be able to launch effective attacks from positions beyond the reach of Chinese missiles and submarines. regardless of the size of their defense budgets. 2001. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations. Indeed. None of this should be cause for chest-‐thumping.206 Multivariate regressions suggest that military effectiveness is determined by a country’s level of economic development. but its performance in battle against the United States would not necessarily be much better than that of. because they lack the economic capacity to maintain. that the U. an independent task force of more than thirty experts recently found “no evidence to support the notion that China will become a peer military competitor of the United States. And what the trends suggest is that America’s economic.‐2008.5 percent. and trends point toward continued unipolarity Beckley 2012 (Michael.challengers can’t make up the power differential. China’s per capita income has declined relative to that of the United States. however. China can “pose problems without catching up. 1993-‐2008 Source: Congressional Research Service. .‐denial” capabilities are outpacing U. If history is any guide. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations. and political factors. modernize. As noted earlier.S. and a greater willingness to bear costs. but evidence of American vulnerability is not the same as evidence of American decline.Its Sustainable Heg is sustainable. China’s defense industry has also fallen further behind : in 2008.S.208 In particular. social. this growing economic gap is also a growing military gap.S. Ibid. China may surge out of its unimpressive condition and close the gap with the United States. local knowledge. Yes. military has vulnerabilities. I found that developing countries systematically fail at warfare. economic superiority literally gives the United States “more bang for the buck” – each dollar it spends on the military produces more force than each dollar China spends. but a deeply embedded material condition that will persist for the foreseeable future .S. soldiers. efforts to counter them. Conclusion Change is inevitable. 73.700 U. Or China might continue to rise in place – steadily improving its capabilities in absolute terms while stagnating. 1993-‐2000.AT: Heg Bad .

History at the University of Bologna. International Security. it is useful to consider William Wohlforth's admonition: "If balancing were the frictionless. few will contest that the United States is in a league of its own when it comes to security affairs. 60 In this light. the country with the second largest share today. primacy. 19 As illustrated in table 2.S. But what about the economic realm? The real test is whether the United States still towers over other countries economically. Institutions. . accounting for 18 percent of the world total. making balancing futile. the absolute threshold should represent 50 percent of the capabilities in the system. primacy appear not to be worried about it. it is clear that the United States is peerless in the security sphere and has strengthened its lead in the last two decades. The 2003 invasion of Iraq is a case in point but there are plenty of other examples. the United States faces very few constraints in the security arena . but the outcome was not planned. but they lack the capabilities to challenge it. primacy resulted from the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union. For decades. The Security Curve and the Structure of International Politics. A Neorealist Synthesis.bandwagoning is more likely. lexis) In principle. Iran.S. But such expectations miss the fact that alliance politics always impose costs. 64 The extraordinarily wide gap in capabilities created by the fall of the Soviet Union left other states with little choice but to acquiesce. postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Politics. . there are also economic advantages associated with this privileged position in the security field. The United States has already moved beyond the absolute threshold. Counting coalitions as potential balancers. the United States is by far the largest military spender and has actually United States’ lead over its nearest competitor is actually stronger in the security arena than it was in 1988 . 62 Part of the answer lies in the United States' unusual path to primacy. and other states’ dependence on it for effective action. the absence of balancing against the United States today appears less puzzling." 59 It is therefore reasonable to assume that the absolute security threshold is around 45 percent of the military capabilities in the system. . Still. This is the claim that is likely to be the most carefully scrutinized. 65 Meanwhile. The European Union. Without even throwing the technological sophistication of American weaponry (or the collective action problems that many states confront when deciding to act in the national interest) into the balance. Moreover. accounts for a larger share than did the Soviet Union in 1988 . and Syria. then the unipolar power would need more than 50 percent of the capabilities in the great power system to stave off a counterpoise. Countries such as China. . Spring.1. the Soviet Union maintained a rough balance with the United States. Russia. 61 Levy and Thompson raise the important question of why other states failed to balance against the United States when it was a rising power but not yet a hegemon. No balancing – US lead is insurmountable and is growing Carla Norrlof (an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto) 2010 “America’s Global Advantage US Hegemony and International Cooperation” p.S. other countries benefiting from U. This is the figure William Thompson suggests in describing a near-unipolar system. the Soviet Union was the closest rival in 1988. may not like U. Ideally. costless activity assumed in some balance-of-power theories. on the other hand. the absolute security threshold should not pose the same problem because of the logical limits in determining it. only accounts for 5 percent of the world total. whereas China. The increased its share of world military spending in the last twenty years. It may be an exaggeration to suggest that the United States became a hegemon by accident. But the European Union’s share does not amount to even half of the United States’ share of the world total. the euro area still accounts for a lower share today than did the Soviet Union in 1988. The next section considers hegemonic strategies that can soften opposition. and is able to reap economic benefits as a result of its hegemonic position.AT: Heg Bad – No Counter Balancing No counterbalancing. or even Brazil and Pakistan.maintaining the power gap key to prevent challengers Fiammenghi 2011 (Davide. As I will also show in chapter 6. because at this level the sum of all the forces opposing the aspiring hegemon is insufficient to successfully balance it. 63 U. Although some question the utility of armed force. Because of the superiority of American military power.

Charm Offensive. One recent bipartisan report on American diplomacy concluded as much. pg. warning that if the "downward spiral [in diplomacy] is not reversed. the prospect of relying on military force to protect US national interests will increase. America's declining popularity decreases Washington's soft power.AT: Heg Bad – Link Turn Low US soft power leads to an increase in unilateralism."34 . Kurlantzick 07 (Joshua. 194) This unpopularity matters. Even without China on the scene. fellow at the USC School of Public Diplomacy and the Pacific Council on International Policy and previous foreign editor at The New Republic. and potentially makes the United States more likely to resort to force rather than persuasion to meet American objectives.

First. but the cost will necessarily be spread through a number of sources that are predominately American because of strategic interests. all states could derive benefit from the public information campaigns to promote energy efficiency and conservation presently being promoted in Cuba in the face of diminishing energy stocks and uncertain global markets. and hence. be its major partner in this effort owing to the fact that most if not all of . the region.¶ The overview of the Cuban energy developments clearly and unambiguously reveals that the Castro regime has every intention of continuing to promote. technology transfer and information sharing between these neighboring states but it possibly enhances the energy security of both states. will play important roles in the funding of the effort to revitalize the Cuban energy sector. to improving the nation’s energy infrastructure.fiu. This is important not only because it will allow direct foreign investment. PhD. inasmuch as American corporations. Ultimately. Florida International University. Moreover. As energy security concerns continue to percolate up to an increasingly important status in the realm of national security objectives we may begin to see the erosion of the hard position against the Cuban regime regardless of its leadership. It suffices to say that the requisite investment and assistance will have a distinct American tinge to it. they will come up short. realized through a division of labor and dispersion of resources that serve as a hedge against natural disaster and market disruptions. The current policy continues to clearly place at the forefront the sanctity and utility of a comprehensive economic and political embargo in the hopes that it helps to foment a change in regime and a peaceful transition to a democratic system of governance and a complimentary market economy.pdf) Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face of a continuing opposition by the United States to anything resembling what can be construed as “good news” for the Castro regime? Obviously. It has significantly increased its international cooperation in the energy sector and continues to enhance its efforts to ensure energy security in these most uncertain of times. is a major contributor. from increasing oil production and refining capacity. Cuban officials are not averse and perhaps would prefer that the U. and no less significant.S. ensuring a stable energy future.S. Second. Cuba is sparing no effort by instituting bottom-up and top-down policy initiatives to meet this challenge. Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO. of which the U.edu/research/commissionedreports/oil-cuba-alvarado. and international financial institutions. design and implement energy development policies that will benefit Cuba for generations to come. Treasurer of the American Political Science Association.” http://cri. the task still falls to the Cuban government. because up until this point it hasn’t cost the United States much if anything. government agencies. proximity and affinity. “The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special. Cuba may indeed realize a bonanza from the offshore tracts that will allow it to possibly address its many energy challenges. Two factors may alter this present situation. and only after normalization. But it stands to reason that no matter how successful these efforts are.S.AT: Not Enough Oil US-Cuban joint oil production is the critical key to US oil selfsufficiency---there are massive amounts of offshore oil waiting to be tapped Benjamin-Alvadaro 6 (Jonathan. Report for the Cuban Research Institute. is the possibility of normalization of trade relations with the United States. U.

it increases the long-term cost of the effort. . It is remarkable that the Cuban energy sector is as vibrant as it presently is. This should serve as an obvious point of entry into cooperation with the Cuban government and perhaps can serve as a catalyst for promoting confidence. in large part because of the American economic embargo. the American role in assisting Cuba in this effort will be significant and every day that the task is put off. trust and cooperation in this critical issue area across the region. the cost is significant and it stands to reason that the longer one waits to address the challenge at hand the higher the cost of modernizing the energy sector . ¶ Finally. oil and gas comes from the United States.the cutting-edge technology in energy. absent the type of infrastructural investment that is available to most developing states. For this reason alone.

Cuba has at least as much incentive to ensure safe-drilling practices as does the United States. & Pol'y 37.31 Among other Cuban lease holders. 12 Sustainable Dev. allowing them to respond quickly to rapid environmental change and thus rendering them ecologically adaptable .pewclimate. Cooperative Oxford Laboratory.D.org/projects/marine. but its offshore project appears the furthest from seeing drilling activity among existing licenses.AT: Environment Turn Cuba won’t spill---they’ll be safe and U. “Cuba’s Offshore Oil Development: Background and U. including extra equipment to shut off blown-out wells beyond what is required in the United States. PdVSA does not.S. technology transfer are overblown. It has had issues with oil spills. PhD. Former Director. including projects in the U.30 Repsol has significant offshore experience.” online: http://assets. n66 Companies investing in Cuba have extensive offshore experience---no risk of spills Nerurkar & Sullivan 10 – Neelesh Nerurkar. Specialist in Energy Policy at the Congressional Research Service. "[t]he Cuban oil industry has put a lot of research.S. ONGC.. Oceans are resilient Kennedy 2 . p. Maryland. (Victor. Specialist in Latin American Affairs at the Congressional Research Service. J. and Mark P. Gulf of Mexico. Steele components of marine systems are tightly coupled to physical factors. Scarabeo-9 is built to Norwegian standards. November 29.cfm) There is evidence that marine organisms and ecosystems are resilient to environmental change. 2010. which may allow for adaptation to climate change. which is not abnormal for an oil company. foreign sources have provided supplemental alternatives.Environmental science prof. (1991) hypothesized that the biological . Gulf of Mexico. while the economic embargo of Cuba restricts American technology from being utilized.” Sustainable Development Law & Policy. Policy Considerations. study and thought into what will be required to safely drill." and that "they are very knowledgeable of international industry practices and have incorporated many of these principles into their safety and regulatory planning and requirements. President of the Houston-based International Association of Drilling Contractors. Some species also have wide genetic variability throughout their range. Sullivan.S. said. Petronas. and PetroVietnam also have offshore experience. and reports indicate that Cuba is taking safety seriously. Fall 2011. “IN THIS ISSUE: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICT: CUBAN OFFSHORE DRILLING: PREPARATION AND PREVENTION WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE UNITED STATES' EMBARGO. including projects in the U. http://www. L.com/rpts/R41522_20101129. Hofstra University School of Law.S. lexis Fears that Cuban offshore drilling poses serious environmental threats because of the proximity to the United States and the prohibition on U." n65 Thus. n64 Lee Hunt. involvement isn’t key Richard Sadowski 11.pdf It is difficult to assess the likelihood of a spill . Coastal and Marine Ecosystems and Global Climate Change. and are generally seen as accomplished offshore operators .opencrs.S. According to Saipem. Petrobras and Statoil have extensive offshore experience .

2000. Powles et al. Fish and Fisheries 4. Extinction vulnerability in marine populations.1) Marine fish populations are more variable and resilient than terrestrial populations Great natural variability in population size is sometimes invoked to argue that IUCN Red List criteria. are too conservative for marine fishes (Hudson and Mace1996. 2002). a decline of 20% within 10 years or three generations (whichever is longer) triggered a classification of 'vulnerable'. be borne in mind that the variation of exploited populations must be higher than unexploited populations because recruitment fluctuations increasingly drive population fluctuations when there are few adults (Pauly et al. Newcastle (Nicholas.Marine life is resilient Dulvy 3 – Professor of Marine Science and Technology. (2000) cite the six-fold variation of the Pacific sardine population (Sardinopssagax. It should. Matsuda et al. Powles et al. Clupeidae) over the past two millennia to suggest that rapid declines and increases of up to 10-fold are relatively common in exploited fish stocks. . Musick 1999. however. Clupeidae) and a nine-fold variation in northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax. but many marine resource biologists feel that for marine fishes 'one size does not fit all' (see Hutchings 2001a). respectively. These criteria were designed to be applied to all animal and plant taxa. as one example. while declines of 50 and 80% led to classifications of 'endangered' and 'critically endangered'. Hutchings 2001a). They argue that percent decline criteria are too conservative compared to the high natural variability of fish populations . For the (1996) IUCN list.1997.

AT: HEALTH CARE DA .

If they do have to go to the hospital. These include tuberculosis. The foreigners-only facilities do a big business in what you might call vanity treatments: Botox. finding an aspirin can be a chore. soap. And the chief of medical services for the whole of the Cuban military had to rent out his car as a taxi on weekends. NOT UNIQUE . I’ll take them. that there are many separate. facilities on Cuba. this causes widespread resentment in the general population. Doctors have been known to reuse latex gloves — there is no choice. and so on. (Of course. In Sicko. another fever. Though the state still trains armies of doctors. is top-notch.htm To be sure. Testimony and documentation on the subject are vast. or segregated. Infant mortality ties with Canada’s as the lowest in the Americas. The second health-care system is for Cuban elites — the Party. It’s like operating with knives and spoons. or even two: There are three. Neglect of infrastructure means that almost 10% of the population lacks . the military. Then there is the real Cuban system.com/node/21558613 Until recently. these people were called the “nomenklatura. When they travel to the island. too. And basic medications are scarce. In the real Cuba. food and dressings. A nurse spoke to Isabel Vincent of Canada’s National Post. The first is for foreigners who come to Cuba specifically for medical care. In many hospitals patients must provide their own sheets. official artists and writers. the one that ordinary people must use — and it is wretched. But Cuba’s crumbling economy has put this system under stress.Health Care DA – 2AC NO IMPACT – Cuban Health care cannot solve disease National Review 7/30/2007 “The Myth of Cuban Health Care” http://www. Dr. As you can well imagine. One told the Associated Press. towels. he earned what most doctors did: 575 pesos a month. leprosy. food. there are separate hotels. they must bring their own bedsheets. American doctors make sure to take as much equipment and as many supplies as they can carry. Measles jabs have been near-universal for more than 20 years. If you have any pills in your purse. And dengue. separate restaurants — separate everything. but they have nothing to work with. Cubans were justifiably proud of their health-care system. a third of these are deployed overseas in “soft-power” missions. light bulbs — even toilet paper.” said the nurse.Cuban health care is struggling – the economy and the embargo The Economist 7/14/2012 “Cuban Health Care: Under Investigation” http://www. People speak of “tourism apartheid. Remember. He had to sell pork out of his home to get by. putting Cuba ahead of many rich countries.economist. In the Soviet Union.” The tourists pay in hard currency.latinamericanstudies. “The [Cuban] doctors are pretty well trained.” For example. Conditions are so unsanitary. state-of-the-art. Jaime Suchlicki of the University of Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies explains that there is not just one system. This is known as “medical tourism. an exiled doctor named Dessy Mendoza Rivero — a former political prisoner and a spectacularly brave man — wrote a book called ¡Dengue! La Epidemia Secreta de Fidel Castro. Life- expectancy matches that of Americans. and typhoid fever. “Everyone tries to survive. there is excellent health care on Cuba — just not for ordinary Cubans. you can call a Cuban with a car privileged.” he explained. like the one for medical tourists. even sophisticated medications are plentiful and cheap. Pharmacies are generally illstocked. whatever he does with it. which provides oxygen to the regime. or about 25 dollars.) So deplorable is the state of health care in Cuba that old-fashioned diseases are back with a vengeance. liposuction. and breast implants. Indeed. Hospitals and clinics are crumbling. in 2003. separate beaches. And an antibiotic will fetch a fortune on the black market.” And doctors are not necessarily privileged citizens in Cuba. “I haven’t seen aspirin in a Cuban store here for more than a year. Even if they have passed their expiry date. “We have nothing. is a particular menace.org/cuba/health-myth.” And their system. whatever home is. A doctor in exile told the Miami Herald that. patients may be better off at home. on errands of mercy. who are eight times richer. well supplied. And the facilities in which they are treated are First World: clean.” The equipment that doctors have to work with is either antiquated or nonexistent.

The public Institute of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery. is trying to revive the economy by cautiously transferring chunks of it into private hands. A pair of children's shoes costs $13. embargo” http://news. according to official figures. having found no doctors in attendance at two health clinics. reported this week. currently restricted to farming. Nov.com/english/health/2012-11/28/c_132004531.S. a patient. the president.xinhuanet. Although infant mortality has continued to fall. NOT UNIQUE . Cuban hospitals suffer restrictions in acquiring imported medical consumables and medicine. But the main reason for the shortage of medical staff is low salaries. which is highly expensive around the world." . The next step. told Xinhua that Cuba had made a great effort for the benefit of all its citizens. She has two small children. which means higher prices for these products. mostly in Venezuela but also in Africa. Many drugs are in short supply. Raúl Castro." The embargo has caused Cuba a loss of more than 200 million dollars in the medical sector alone by 2011. where thousands of people receive free medical care every year from international specialists.Embargo restricts Cuba from access to necessary medicines and tech Xinhua News 11/28/2012 “Cuban healthcare weakended by U. this correspondent came across an elderly woman who had hurt her arm and was whimpering with pain.000 Latin Americans to study medicine--all part of its obsessive search for international prestige. "It provides us free medicine across the country. who this month visited China and Vietnam. but now earns $40 a month in an improvised craft shop in Havana.access to clean drinking water. maternal mortality has risen. The American embargo against the island does not help: equipment for radiology. officials said.000 Cuban doctors and other health workers were working in 77 countries around the world. As a doctor "I faced a choice of buying shoes or eating. is financially strained by the embargo. John Rhodes. If the health service is to thrive again. this sort of economic surgery will need to speed up. The Cuban government also offers scholarships to 20. says Julia Sweig of the Council on Foreign Relations. south of the capital. will be to let transport and other service workers form cooperatives. buying from third parties. There is a surfeit of humanities graduates and a shortage of agronomists and engineers. A woman who gave her name as Grisel says she worked as a family doctor for just $23 a month. Hospital patients sometimes have to bring their own sheets. representing a significant impact on the tiny Caribbean nation. 37.S." he said. "We must find alternatives that sometimes include purchasing from distant markets. sometimes we do not have all the raw materials and tools to solve certain problems immediately. an American think-tank. the Caribbean and Central America." LINK TURN . advanced medical technology and latest scientific information. 27 (Xinhua) -. He added some equipments were simply unattainable. There are reports of doctors starting to demand payment.Cuban medical authorities said on Tuesday a 50-year trade embargo imposed by the United States has severely undermined the country's healthcare system.Health care declining – supplies & staff The Economist 3/24/2012 “The deal's off. "because they are manufactured in the United States. On a weekday morning in a village in the inappropriately named municipality of La Salud ("health"). embargo. In 2010." said Director of the institute Dr. adding "due to the U. Lorenzo Llerena. Secondary-school enrolment is below its 1989 peak. mammograms and cancer therapy is hard to replace. Inequality” page proquest And now health services and education are becoming harder to access and getting worse .htm HAVANA.

org/pdfs/amr250072009eng.amnestyusa.S. and limited the exchange of medical and scientific information due to travel restrictions and currency regulations.pdf The negative impact of the US embargo on the Cuban health care system and on the right to health of Cubans during the 1990s has been documented in a 1997 report by the American Association for World Health (AAWH). The AAWH found that “a humanitarian catastrophe has been averted only because the Cuban government has maintained a high level of budgetary support for a health care system designed to deliver primary and preventive health care to all of its citizens… Even so.45 The 300-page document is still the most comprehensive study on the issue. the U. embargo of food and the de facto embargo on medical supplies has wreaked havoc with the island's model primary health care system. Based on a fact-finding mission to Cuba. the AAWH identified that the embargo contributed particularly to malnutrition affecting especially women and children.Embargo devastates health care system – supplies & lack of information exchange Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www. poor water quality. lack of access to medicines and medical supplies.” 46 .LINK TURN .

. who predict further cuts or significant changes to what has been a pillar of the socialist system implanted after the 1959 revolution. published daily details for two weeks on how much the government spends on everything from anesthetics and acupuncture to orthodontics and organ transplants. The health sector has already endured millions of dollars in budget cuts and tens of thousands of layoffs. despite the service being free. Cubans lack resources for necessary medicine and equipment Global Politics 2007 “The Challenges of Health Care in Cuba” http://www. of which the poor and middle classes of Cuba are very unlikely to have. Scarcities now are common and sanitary conditions fall short of the ideal in decaying facilities where paint peels from the walls. 14 Cuba’s dual economy has a lot to do with why such disparity exists.14 for each X-ray and $6. but quite a bit for Cuba. food and water for hospital stays. $4." said Phil Peters. mostly to other Latin American countries for purely financial returns. Every year Cuba exports huge amounts of medical aid.com/2012/08/27/cuba-healthcare_n_1832955. long considered a birthright by its citizens and trumpeted as one of the communist government's great successes. Pharmacies are often very poorly stocked and rationing of supplies is minimal. electric fans.co. Based on the official exchange rate. not much by outside standards. "Very often the media has been a leading indicator of where the economic reforms are going. a longtime Cuba observer at the Lexington Institute think tank.Cuba's system of free medical care. Venezuela provides much-needed oil to Cuba and in exchange receives Cuban doctors and medical supplies.Health Care DA – N/U Ext Health care system is crumbling – budget cuts Associated Press 8/25/2012 “Cuba Health Care: Budget Cuts Threaten Sector” Huffington Post http://www. to explain or blunt fears of a drop-off in care and to remind Cubans to be grateful that health care is still free despite persistent economic woes. But it's also raising the eyebrows of outside analysts. 23 The ‘pesos pharmacies’ and local state hospitals are drastically under-stocked and thus access for the poor to needed medication is minimal. is not immune to cutbacks under Raul Castro's drive for efficiency. 22 For example. and it became clear this month that Castro is looking for more ways to save when the newspaper voice of the Communist Party. Medication and equipment is there and available but only to pay for in American dollars. Granma. It's part of a wider media campaign that seems geared to discourage frivolous use of medical services. It's not a luxury service though. it seems very little of this actually remains in Cuba.global- politics. challenges remain. "My guess is that there's some kind of policy statement to follow.html HAVANA -. because that's been the pattern. 10 Despite the production of medical supplies and technology . but how much does it cost?" The answer is. the government spends $2 each time a Cuban visits a family doctor. posters in clinics and ads on state TV is the same: "Your health care is free.huffingtonpost." The theme of the Granma pieces. which spends $190 million a year paying for its citizens' medical bills. Patients often bring their own bed sheets. Healthcare may be free and available for all Cuban citizens but medication is not. 13 There are claims that hospitals are often in poor conditions and doctors have to bring in their own supplies and equipment to allow them to treat their patients.827 for a heart transplant.uk/issue9/hanna/ However.

In April this year President Obama lifted restrictions that had prevented U.cnn.S. The embargo restricts the export of medicines and medical equipment from the U.S.” Berres said. An Amnesty report examines the effects of the sanctions.5 percent of Cuba's children under three years old. England (CNN) -. I would say the people most affected have been cancer and HIV-AIDS patients. the embargo has a sweeping effect on Cuban healthcare . which have been in place since 1962.php/communities/303-lexington-fayette-county/29814-ukdelegation-visits-cuba-learns-about-its-healthcare-system “Many of the problems with Cuba’s health care system are associated with the American embargo.S. “This prevents them from having access to the latest pharmaceutical and technological advances. so many of their facilities are very basic.S. the condition affected 37. Over the past decades. human rights group Amnesty International alleged Wednesday.S. Amnesty also called on President Obama to not renew the Trading with the Enemy Act.com/index. Cuba can import these products from other countries. "It's preventing millions of Cubans from benefiting from vital medicines and medical equipment essential for their health. is adopting a new policy toward Cuba." Reed said. State Department spokeswoman would not comment on the report because she hadn't read it.S." Khan said. Amnesty International SecretaryGeneral Irene Khan called the U.” Embargo prevents access to tech and medicine CNN 9/02/2009 “Report: U. told CNN that although medicines and medical supplies can be licensed for export to Cuba. "In general. trade embargo on Cuba is endangering the health of millions by limiting Cubans' access to medicines and medical technology. a non-profit organization that encourages cooperation among U.S. and from any U.The U. company.amnestyusa. sanctions put Cubans' health at risk” http://edition. it would send a clear message that the U.S. but there are major shipping costs and logistical challenges to contend with. citizens from visiting relatives in Cuba. hospitals and day care centers is contributing to a high prevalence of iron deficiency anemia..health/ LONDON. Embargo restricts health care – equipment & chemicals Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. presidents on an annual basis since 1978. Cuban and global health communities. she said. Gerardo Ducos. an Amnesty researcher for the Caribbean region. Gail Reed is international director of MEDICC (Medical Education Cooperation with Cuba).cuba. However." The Amnesty report also cites United Nations data that says Cuba's inability to import nutritional products for schools. leaving medical equipment without replacement parts and patients without continuity of medications. Amnesty said that while not renewing the Act would not in itself end the embargo against Cuba.com/2009/HEALTH/09/01/amnesty. according to UNICEF. She told CNN. In 2007. .S. A U. "The president believes it makes strategic sense to hold on to some inducements we can use in dealing with a Cuban government if it shows any signs of seeking a normalized relationship with us and begins to respect basic human rights. "Doctors in Cuba always worry that an international supplier will be bought out by a U. The Act has been reviewed by U.-owned company abroad. and sending them remittances.pdf The provision of health care has also suffered from the limitations and restrictions imposed by the embargo on the procurement of basic and specialized medical equipment and chemical components needed for the production of generic medicines. embargo immoral and said it should be lifted.S. which is due for renewal on September 14. Learns About its Healthcare System” http://surfky.S." She also said the embargo affects the way doctors think about the future. the conditions governing the process make their export virtually impossible.AT: Health Care DA – Link Turn Ext Embargo prevents access to necessary tech SurfKY News 4/15/2013 “UK Delegation Visits Cuba.

clinics and care centres for the elderly. Embargo hurts health care – infrastructure Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www. The repercussions of these difficulties are ultimately felt by the intended beneficiaries of these programmes. The financial burden and commercial barriers have led to shortages or intermittent availability of drugs.pdf The impact of economic sanctions on health and health services is not limited to difficulties in the supply of medicine.amnestyusa. who face long delays before having access to adequate medicine or treatment. equipment and spare parts. Health and health services depend on functioning water and sanitation infrastructure.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. medicines. on electricity and other functioning equipment such as X-ray facilities or refrigerators to store vaccines.Embargo hurts health care – hampers UN programs Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.pdf The increase in the costs for purchasing the necessary medicine or medical materials is hampering the implementation of UN development projects and programmes. It has also hindered the renovation of hospitals.64 .amnestyusa.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng.

which aims to isolate and destabilize the regime through economic sanctions.AT: LIFT TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS CP Removing travel restrictions alone is insufficient to solve the soft power advantave advantage – removing the whole embargo is key Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The only problem with offering more humanitarian aid to Cuba is that it seemingly contradicts current U. The perception in Cuba is that the United States is responsible for the chronic humanitarian crisis that has afflicted the island since 1989. n78 While any increase in humanitarian assistance will no doubt be viewed as a positive step in the right direction.S. on the other hand. On the one hand. However.S.at least. as applied to humanitarian organizations. it will still have to be reconciled with an enduring hostile relationship between both countries . policy. humanitarian assistance is the very type of soft power engagement that might help thaw relations between Washington and Havana.[*215] Doesn’t solve hard power – lifting the embargo is key to cooperating on oil drilling – that’s the key internal link to hard power . n79 any increase in humanitarian assistance might also require a proportional loosening of the trade and travel restrictions . since so much of America's humanitarian soft power resources lie outside of government in the private sector and civil society.