Plan

The United States federal government should end its embargo on
Cuba

LEADERSHIP ADV

LEADERSHIP ADV – 1AC
SCENARIO ONE: SOFT POWER:
Anti-Americanism is growing in Latin America – extending an olive
branch to Cuba is necessary to re-establish our regional soft power
Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy

Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis
Anti-Americanism has become the political chant de jour for leaders seeking longterm as well as short-term gains in Latin American elections. In Venezuela, the
anti-American rhetoric spewed by Hugo Chavez masks his otherwise autocratic
tendencies, while countries like Bolivia and Ecuador tilt further away from
Washington, both rhetorically and substantively. The former expelled the U.S. Ambassador in October 2008, and the latter
has refused to renew Washington's lease on an airbase traditionally used for counter-narcotics missions. The systemic
neglect for eight years during the Bush Administration meant that political capital
was never seriously spent dealing with issues affecting the region . Because of this, President
Bush was unable to get much headway with his proposal to reform immigration, and his free trade agreement with Colombia
encountered significant opposition in Congress. Recent examples of U.S. unilateralism, disregard

for
international law and norms, and a growing financial crisis, have all been seized
by a new generation of populist Latin American leaders who stoke anti-American
sentiment.
The region, however, is absolutely critical to our national interest and security. Over
thirty percent of our oil comes from Latin America - more than the U.S. imports
from the Middle East. Additionally, over half of the foreign-born population in the United States is Latin American,
meaning that a significant portion of American society is intrinsically tied to the region. n1 These immigrants, as well as their sons
and daughters, have already begun to take their place amongst America's social, cultural, and political elite.
Just south of America's borders, a deepening polarization is spreading throughout

the entire region. In the last few years ideological allies in Bolivia, Ecuador, and
Venezuela have written and approved new constitutions that have consolidated the
power of the executive, while extending - or in Venezuela's case eliminating presidential term limits. In Venezuela the polarization has been drawn along economic lines, whereby Chavez's base
of support continues to be poor Venezuelans. In Bolivia the polarization has been drawn along racial lines: the preamble to the new
Bolivian constitution, approved in January 2009, makes reference to the "disastrous colonial times," a moment in history that
Bolivians of Andean-descent particularly lament. Those regions in Bolivia with the most people of European or mixed descent have
consistently voted for increased provincial autonomy and against the constitutional changes proposed by President Morales.
Perhaps due to its sweeping changes, the new Constitution was rejected by four of Bolivia's nine provinces. n2 Like Bolivia, Latin
America is still searching for its identity.
[*191] Traditionally the U.S. has projected its influence by using varying

combinations of hard and soft power. It has been a long time since the U nited States
last sponsored or supported military action in Latin America, and although highly contextdependent, it is very likely that Latin American citizens and their governments would view any
overt display of American hard power in the region negatively. n3 One can only imagine the
fodder an American military excursion into Latin America would provide for a leader like Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, or Evo Morales
of Bolivia. Soft power, on the other hand, can win over people and governments without

resorting to coercion, but is limited by other factors.
The key to soft power is not simply a strong military, though having one helps, but rather an
enduring sense of legitimacy that can then be projected across the globe to
advance particular policies. The key to this legitimacy is a good image and a
reputation as a responsible actor on the global and regional stage. A good
reputation and image can go a long way toward generating goodwill, which
ultimately will help the U.S. when it tries to sell unpopular ideas and reforms in
the region. n4

America must once again be admired if we are going to expect other countries to follow our example. In 2008. the U. In 2007.S. To that end. must repair its image by going on a diplomatic offensive and reminding. China quickly displaced the United States as that country's largest export market. It charts China's growing relationship with Latin America and promises increased cooperation in scientific and technological research. cross-cultural educational exchanges. The Chinese government has invested a tremendous amount of soft power in Latin America . as Brazil's biggest trading partner. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The absence of a strong American presence over the last eight years has also given China the opportunity to step in as a major player." whereby China steps in to fill the gap left by America's absence. US influence in Latin America is key to prevent Chinese crowd in – the impact is cyber war Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. Costa Rica dropped its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. a move heavily courted by Chinese officials. but will increasingly have to make room for a new player. not just Latin America's leaders. Working with other nations to address these challenges is the best way to shore up legitimacy. of the important relationship between the U. China's interest in Latin America is also based on its increasingly assertive global political agenda. To be sure. trade between China and Latin America hovered around $ 13 billion. warming relations with Cuba would have a reverberating effect throughout Latin America. the U. every country in Latin America is a potential friend. . American clout correspondingly decreases in terms of relative power. had to pass the Cuba "litmus test. n118 Even despite the current financial crisis. President Hu rewarded Costa Rica's new policy by visiting San Jose and signing a free trade agreement in 2010. n8 In short. Given this diminishing economic position. the entire system's stability .S. who look to us for "ideas and solutions. n115 American disinterest in Latin America has convinced many countries to adopt a "Pacific view. as has its ability to deal with other countries. not lectures. despite its size and isolation. but also the Latin American people." n5 When analyzing ecosystems. Latin American governments that hoped to endear themselves to the U. having disproportionately dominated Washington's policy toward the region for decades. if it wants to repair America's image in the region. n117 In 2000. Many of the problems facing Latin America today cannot be addressed in the absence of U. but in 2007. function as lynchpins for. will remain the major powerbroker in the Americas for decades to come. n116 After signing a free trade agreement with Chile. leadership and cooperation. Washington will have to not only strengthen its existing relationships in the region. environmental scientists seek out "keystone species. America's reputation [*192] in the region has suffered. n7 For fifty years.S." These are organisms that. earn respect." But now the tables have turned. Washington will have to rely more heavily on diplomatic initiatives that shore up credibility rather than simply economic incentives and disincentives. and Latin America. Although this proposal focuses heavily on Cuba.S. Cuba. trade between China and Latin America is likely to grow during the next five years. n120 As China's role in Latin America increases. and would go a long way toward creating goodwill.In order to effectively employ soft power in Latin America. both economically and politically. will have to pass a Cuba litmus test of its own. with an annual trade growth of 30% since 2001. and the Obama Administration. and repair America's image. but particularly in Latin America. and by 2008 total trade was valued at $ 140 billion. in regions all around the world. is a keystone nation in Latin America. as well as political and economic exchanges. despite their small size.S.S. China also [*224] recently displaced the U. such as bilateral trade agreements . n6 As a result of its continuing tensions with Havana. or barometers of. but also win over new allies.S. n119 China also timed the release of a new policy paper on Sino-Latin American relations to coincide with President Hu's most recent trip to the region. where it is now the continent's third largest trading partner. that number had increased to $ 102 billion.

2/29. n125 But China's leadership is pragmatic. 213-215) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. Development of such capabilities may already be happening. Economic decline causes global war Royal 10 (Jedediah. medium and small powers. Copeland's (1996. China has a huge presence at Lourdes. it is also a national security problem. 1999). Several notable contributions follow. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. Economics of War and Peace: Economic. Ed. the only thing standing between Beijing's re-appropriation of Taipei is Washington. n121 In fact. a former Soviet espionage base just outside of Havana.(7B) China's Strategic Interest in Cuba China's presence in Cuba is rather significant: after Venezuela. if successful.S. p. where in 2004 Hu Jintao visited and confirmed that most of the technology housed there. on a visit to Cuba.-Sino relations. who seek new ways to obtain sensitive government or proprietary information.are now all dependent on computer technology for their very operations. interests. “Economic Integration. which can be used in tandem with cyber and communications warfare against Washington. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U. 2000 (Michael. which begs the question: what is China getting in return for all this assistance? If China is cooperating with Cuban intelligence to spy on the United States. came from China. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent states. dyadic and national levels. Cyber-attack would destroys the US economy Vatis. as long as Taiwan is a [*225] thorny issue for U. In the unlikely event of hostile engagement with the United States. 1995). China is neurotic about the functional American presence in Taiwan and has made its intentions for the island known to everyone. exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. l/n) And this is not just a criminal problem. Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed to not only defer for ten years some of Cuba's debt payments. including almost all of the computers. but also to invest $ 80 million in the island's health industry. as well as half its annual output of nickel. n122 In 2008. Legal and Political Perspectives.and by that I mean those services that are vital to our economy and to our national security. n124 Another former Soviet base in Bejucal may now also house both Cuban and Chinese intelligence analysts.3 billion worth of goods exchanged. Department of Defense.000 tons of Cuban sugar. The same basic types of cyber attacks that therefore have become attractive to criminals are also attractive to foreign intelligence services . and also to terrorists and hostile foreign nations. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. Second. China has an incentive to develop technological capabilities in Cuba. could deny service on a very broad scale. Federal News Service. Alternatively. Separately. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic. which is Cuba's top export. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour . n123 Moreover. Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”. Goldsmith and Brauer. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Feaver. not ideological. China purchases over 400. China is Cuba's second-largest trading partner with $ 2. This is because our nation's critical infrastructures -. on a dyadic level. First.S. transportation and government operations -. telecommunications. such as electrical power. As such.S. An increased Chinese presence in Cuba might be a strategic move by Beijing to later leverage their presence on the island for a change in America's Taiwan policy. Congressional Testimony to the Subcommittee on Crime in the House and the Senate Subcommittee on Criminal Justice Oversight. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major. on the systemic level. FBI. And that dependence makes them vulnerable to an attack which . China will have a stake in Cuba. a greater American presence on the island would be needed to fully understand the scope of this rather disturbing operation. who are bent on attacking U. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one preeminent leader to the next.

which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. If the state were to collapse. These three reasons combine for a perfect storm: to the extent that a healthy U.-Latin America relationship.e. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. the likelihood for conflict increases. the former should be pursued with an unprecedented vigor. Furthermore. "Diversionary theory" suggests that. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. face a humanitarian crisis. if the expectations of future trade decline. In summary. addressing it would also involve correspondingly less effort than those issues. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other. sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. However. 2004). policy toward Cuba as the most glaring symbol of its historic inability to constructively engage the region. crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. They write: The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict..4 Third. climate change. and cannot be overstated. one that has been absent for the last fifty years. & Weerapana. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. the ailing economy. the island could plunge into civil war. Although the chances of a post-Castro Cuba becoming a failed state are slim. Hess. Miller (1999). recent economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. particularly during periods of economic downturn. become a major drug trafficking center. Latin America's importance to the United States is growing by the day. but could potentially lead to a disproportionately high return by making regional cooperation more likely. the threat is nevertheless real. experience a massive migration to Florida. and Blomberg. 2002. a new . (Blomberg & Hess. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources. Aside from the strategic importance of this issue.S.-Cuba relations is obviously of smaller import than many other issues currently affecting the world (i.S. p. While the issue of U.-Cuban relationship would mean a healthier U. Moreover. as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. n20 In order to confront any of the major world issues facing the United States.of states. addressing these concerns might also prevent more serious problems in the future. the Obama Administration ignores Latin America at its own peril. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. and thus weak Presidential popularity. Gelpi (1997). Wang (1996). dyadic and national levels. who generally view U. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. Washington must find a way to cooperate with its neighbors. and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states.S.5 This implied connection between integration. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. or endure a combination of each.S. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (1995). Hess. proliferation of weapons of mass destruction). State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis [*195] Third. The plan leads to broader cooperation and influence in the region and globally Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. which in turn returns the favour. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic. However.

The Eight Recommendations found in this proposal are suggestions that the Obama Administration should consider as it moves to reengage Latin America. In recent years it has become far more active on global ¶ issues of concern to the United States. The United States and Brazil have ¶ clashed over such issues as Iran’s nuclear program. Resolving America's "Cuba problem" is a low-cost/high-reward strategy that would inject new energy and credibility into America's image. and other countries of¶ the region in world forums addressing shared interests .¶ This may position them as a voice in international debates on this topic. n21 To address the issues confronting the United States vis-a-vis Latin America (i. it should support coordination on the presumption¶ of shared interests on a critical policy challenge . There is no doubt that America's diminished image in Latin America means that it will face additional difficulty when trying to accomplish its regional goals. The hemisphere’s institutional¶ architecture is in great flux. they align on some related goals . Mexico¶ The United States is handicapped by its inability to devise a climate¶ change policy. and in efforts to¶ rebuild and provide security for Haiti. labor and human rights). more effective¶ approach to the problem.thedialogue.S. hosted the second international meeting on climate change in Cancún in ¶ 2010.and comprehensive policy toward Cuba can help prevent these nightmare scenarios from materializing.¶ already has assumed a prominent position on climate change and ¶ is active in global policy debates.¶ Latin Americans are taking more active leadership on drug policy in the¶ hemisphere and could become increasingly influential in global discussions ¶ of drug strategies. .” April. will host Rio+20. In that context. trade. including the World Bank ¶ and the International Monetary Fund. This cooperation and influence is key to solve existential crisis Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report.¶ Even as Latin America expands its global reach and presence. ¶ environmental.¶  Many countries in the region give priority to climate change challenges. 2012 (IAD is a think tank hosting 100 leaders and experts from the US and Latin America..e. Latin America has the¶ opportunity to participate more actively in nonproliferation efforts. Although the United States and Latin America¶ are often at odds on drug policy. Washington has worked with Brazil ¶ and other Latin American countries to raise the profile In addition to economic and financial matters. non-proliferation.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL. and Canada also participate in the G-20). such as in the World Trade Organization and the G-20 (Mexico. Brazil and other Latin¶ American nations are assuming enhanced roles on an array of global political. Online: http://www. this year. south-south connections¶ are crucial. For¶ example. but also the pragmatism that has made America so great to begin with. they have mutual interests and goals¶ that should allow consultation and collaboration on a new.¶ Mexico of emerging economies¶ in various international financial agencies. and security issues. and there is growing need for decisions about¶ priorities and objectives.¶ Although US and Latin American interests do not always converge¶ on non-proliferation questions. Mexico.pdf) Many of the issues on the hemispheric agenda carry critical global ¶ dimensions. Part of America's greatness is its ability to inspire practical solutions in people. the United States should seek greater¶ cooperation and consultation with Brazil. but they have cooperated when their interests ¶ converged. Washington must restore its heavily damaged image and regain its place as the region's trendsetter and leader. Several for which US and Latin¶ American cooperation could become increasingly important include:¶  As the world’s lone nuclear-weapons-free region. the main proliferation challenges today are found in developing¶ and unstable parts of the world.¶ Argentina. Because of this.¶ Brazil has the broadest international presence and influence of any Latin¶ American nation. drugs. and ¶ the Middle East uprisings. Any new U. as well as in the leakage—or transfer¶ of nuclear materials—to terrorists.¶ The importance of the Amazon basin to worldwide climate concerns¶ gives Brazil and five other South American nations a special role to play. “Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America. Brazil organized the first-ever global ¶ environmental meeting in 1992 and. Still. Brazil could play a pivotal role. it is important¶ that the United States and the region increase their attention to reshaping¶ regional institutions to better align them with current realities and ¶ challenges and to make them more effective.-Cuban policy should embrace not only America's uncanny ability to reinvent itself. the environment.

S. and allow U. Report for the Cuban Research Institute. has declined. The Cubans have gained invaluable knowledge and experience through the operation and construction of energy facilities in collaboration with their joint- The United States possesses few options when it comes to balancing the various risks to U. Venezuela. the policy tools available to deal with energy supply disruptions are increasingly inadequate. it may pave the way to establishing much-needed familiarity and confidence across these communities . U. and may be central to. there is a significant lack of trust and confidence between the United States and Cuba. “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation” Conclusion and Recommendations Undoubtedly. In particular. it would remain dependent on oil imports to meet its existing and future demand. and the overall dismal state of the global economy create a setting of instability and uncertainty that requires close attention to the national security interests of the United States vis-à-vis energy. universities. ¶ The energy-security environment for the United States is at a critical juncture. representatives from American companies. The productive capacity of two of the United States’ largest oil suppliers. and think tanks have had the opportunity to meet with Cuban energy officials. Brookings Institution book. Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha. Anecdotal evidence suggests that these contacts and exchanges have been wildly successful because of the Cubans’ high level of competence and strong work ethic. oil.S. not to mention since 2008.S. the variability of weather patterns. and engineering firms to subcontract work to an emerging class of Cuban firms specializing in these areas.S. a movement toward energy cooperation and development with Cuba is consistent with.SCENARIO TWO: HARD POWER: Lifting the embargo is essential to US-Cuba oil cooperation – key to solve independence from Middle East oil Benjamin-Alvadaro 10 – Jonathan Benjamin-Alvadaro. yet this change share of the financial burden of upgrading Cuba’s energy infrastructure will fall to the United States. and other countries in the region. and geostrategic objectives of U. because U.¶ and integration .S. oil and gas industry and using state-of-the. directly and indirectly. because deterioration of the infrastructure continues and eventually pushes up the cost of renovation and replacement. This is plain from the almost quaint maintenance of a sanctions regime that seeks to isolate Cuba economically and politically but hardly reflects the dramatic changes that have occurred on the island since 1991. and discussed across a number of settings where the interested parties are now familiar with and well versed in the agendas and opportunities that exist in this arena. that objective . after fifty years of enmity. decisionmakers must look dispassionately at potential energy partners in terms of the role they might play in meeting political. the price tag is estimated to be in the billions of dollars.art U. PhD.S. and the supporting energy infrastructure in both countries is in need of significant revitalization. is in need of significant repair and modernization (its many energy projects notwithstanding). even if the United States were to choose to exploit all of its domestic energy resources. energy experts on the technical acumen and capability of Cuban energy officials has been overwhelmingly positive . . The Obama administration has signaled that it wants to reinvigorate inter-American cooperation venture partners on the island. dissected. Mexico. Mexico and Venezuela. In public discussions. construction. Now. Cuba’s energy infrastructure. more flexible view on the quest for resources—a view that does not shun a source from a potential strategic partner for purely political reasons. It also stands to reason that the lion’s Changes in U. The vagaries of the politics in the region. the opportunity to advance relations in the energy arena appears to be ripe.S. Delaying work on many of these projects increases costs. government and the Obama administration see fit to shift its policy so as to allow broader participation of American academics and practitioners in the energy field to attend conferences and meet with Cuban energy officials.¶ The United States and Cuba will have a unique opportunity to employ a highly educated and competent cadre of Cuban engineers and technicians to work in critical areas of the energy sector. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO. This will deploy an underused segment of the Cuban workforce. Florida International University. oil technologies. economic. The scope and objectives of Cuban energy development schemes have been disseminated. Cuban energy authorities have made it clear that their preferred energy development scenario includes working closely with the U.S.S. too. The assessment from U.9 Should the U. energy independence is not attainable. energy security and satisfying energy demand. energy security . The Cubans have accumulated experience and training from past energy cooperation projects and exchanges in Cuba. The critical need to improve the integrity of the U.S.when Fidel Castro officially stepped aside as Cuba’s president. energy supply requires a much broader. Since 2004. Treasurer of the American Political Science Association. trade organizations. and the United States needs to articulate a new vision of how best to manage international energy interdependence. policy to allow investment and assistance in Cuba’s energy sector are a precondition for international entities to make significant investments . 2010.S.

we have seen a parade of relatively resource-poor nations carve out significant global economic and geopolitical places for themselves over the decades. was a superpower in the 20th century but won't be in the 21st doesn't hold up so well now. and Brazil have profound political. and undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of escalation. which is going to be overwhelmingly dependent on energy imports. The United States could provide much-needed additional investment capital in the development of upstream. The U.S. " U.S.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-securityzalmay-khalilzad We face this domestic challenge while other major powers are experiencing rapid economic growth.S. the United States ambassador to Afghanistan. ¶ This discussion is intended to help distill understanding of U. crude oil imports account for 44 percent of the U.since oil is fungible and can be bought freely by anyone with the money. or is the U. which would erode millions of barrels of oil a day.S. but not readily forever.S. downstream. Oil independence strengthens U. demographic. If we don’t get our economic house in order. and logistical resources in Cuba that simultaneously addresses Petrocaribe objectives. and economic problems.nationalreview. policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow.S. India. The closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify geopolitical competition among major powers . but still in the Western Hemisphere: " writes. 2011. November 1. why would relative American power abruptly reverse course compared with China's simply because one has and the other lacks oil ? I emailed Morse to find out. Trade and investment in the energy sector in Cuba have been severely constrained by the conditions of the embargo placed on the Cuban regime. and a resumption of America's gluttonous gasoline appetite. foreign policy for the near and long term. China imports much of its oil and natural gas.foreignpolicy. But according to Citigroup oil economist Edward Morse (quoted by Crooks). cooperation with Cuba in energy just may create an opportunity for the United States to improve its portion of the needed investment capital to undertake this colossal effort. their economies are growing faster than ours. is in a much stronger position. “The Economy and National Security. social.S. Compare it to a country such as China. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. Crooks finds Even if the most optimistic hopes are not fulfilled.¶ U. government assistance will constitute a large The longer that work is delayed. Even though countries such as China. the higher the cost to all the investors.implies a large American footprint. American private investment and U. strategic energy policy under a set of shifting political and economic environmental conditions in Cuba and its implications for U. an understanding of possible outcomes is important to those crafting future policy and making changes in the policymaking milieu. and this could alter the global distribution of power. http://oilandglory. it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge. 2011. China might or might not have access to cheap energy feedstocks and to virtual self-sufficiency . but the United States will have to make special provisions that create commercial and trade openings for energy development that serve its broad geostrategic and national security goals. “Is this group think.” online: http://www. and adds storage and transit capabilities while enhancing regional cooperation and integration modalities. it's hard to write off an economy that has these two pillars of long-term strength. imports oil only from Canada. In modern . energy dependence is a severe handicap for being able to do that. and the United Nations during the presidency of George W.S." he one can imagine a future in which the U. not to mention metals.S.S.S. if it can demonstrate that it can serve as a partner (or at a minimum. Because the policies can be considered works-in-progress. technologies needed for oil and gas exploration and production. trade deficit."¶ But what does this mean in the big picture? First. If U. February 8.S. leadership LeVine 11 Steve LeVine is a writer for Foreign Policy. as a global superpower :¶ The notion that the solace in the volumes further afield. we risk a new era of multi-polarity. about to be energy-independent?”. His reply:¶ Superpower status really does depend over time on lots of abilities to deliver public goods for a wide variety of others. which will then potentially cut into the returns from such undertakings. To be sure one can do it for a long period of time. The U. as it has in the case of food and medicine sales to Cuba. Japan for example imports 98 percent of its oil. ¶ The stakes are high. diversifies regional refining capacity.com/posts/2011/11/01/is_this_group_think_or_is_the_us_a bout_to_be_energy_independent?wpisrc=obinsite What could undermine the prognoses is if the result is relatively low oil prices. Still. perhaps. increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another. America's trade balance would improve considerably -.currently.S. stands an excellent chance of access to both. Iraq. So US global leadership is vital to protecting the globe from wars Khalilzad 11 – Zalmay Khalilzad. a supporter) of the Petrocaribe energy consortium. This does not mean that the United States has to dismantle the nearly fiftyyear-old embargo against Cuba. relations with Venezuela. it also means a new day for the U. These constraints also affect foreign firms seeking to do business in Cuba because of the threat of penalties if any of these firms use technology containing more than 10 percent of proscribed U. Mexico and a handful of other friendly countries such as Brazil.S. These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world. Crooks writes.¶ I was left puzzled by that formulation of how the world works -.

Without an American security blanket. and Southeast Asian states. Japan. hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions.¶ As rival powers rise. the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S. or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict . China’s strategic modernization is aimed. there would be a heightened possibility of arms races. the United States is the most significant barrier facing Chinese hegemony and aggression. Asia in particular is likely to emerge as a zone of great-power competition. China’s expansive territorial claims — and provocative statements and actions following crises in Korea and incidents at sea — have roiled its relations with South Korea. . miscalculation . India. Under this scenario. Beijing’s economic rise has enabled a dramatic military buildup focused on acquisitions of naval. and anti-satellite capabilities. Still. ultimately. Alternatively. and ballistic missiles. at denying the United States access to the seas around China. Either way. with their competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers. Even as cooperative economic ties in the region have grown. regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats. weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the U nited States. multi-polar systems have been unstable. in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers. leadership . cruise.history.¶ American retrenchment could have devastating consequences . By contrast. long-range stealth aircraft. Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars.

now more than ever. In the run-up to the Iraq War.fend vital American interests. ership is essential to meet these threats successfully. 419. Washington has had to allow China to play a central role. concluding that unilateral might makes right.S. the White House has been unable to lead a multinational effort to halt Iran's nuclear program.” The Battle for Hearts and Minds: edited by Alexander T. "We made it plain that even if no one followed us. With foreign governments and publics suspicious of American policy. and the possibility that anti-US sentiment will make it easier for terrorist groups to recruit. lead. however.. Joshua Kurlantzick. the transnational nature of the problems the United States faces defies unilateral solutions. containment. Globalization is erasing borders that once protected the United States. and drug trafficking. human trafficking. trouble on the far side of the planet. can quickly become a plague on the United States' house. These include the drain in foreign talent coming to the United States. we would go it alone. Dec 2005. the United States has failed to obtain significant participation from all but a handful of major nations. But because we have demonstrated astonishing military power and the will to de."2 Military power remains the foundation of U. and WMD threats. senior fellow at CSIS. Whatever response the United States chooses-engagement. J. Surprise: others followed. and drug trafficking can only be managed through forms of multilateral cooperation that depend on America's ability to persuade other nations. U. legitimate broker in the talks. 686. again in part because of America's negative image in countries ranging from India to Germany In attempts to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons. while empowering its enemies. . Rogue states. Thus. 284) Why should the United States care that some criticize its policies and others resent its power? Following U. Terrorism itself cannot be defeated by force alone. During the war itself. Iss. As Charles Krauthammer wrote. partly because few Asian states view the United States as a neutral. is tempting. the growing attractiveness of China and Europe. Washington must increasingly resort to the other option Nye discusses-force. or the threat of force. to play a major staging role. and instead has had to resort to threatening sanctions at the United Nations or even the possibility of strikes against Iran.fies U. the potential backlash against American companies. outlaw actors. Blinken 03 (Antony J. however. terrorism. pg. pg. “The Decline of American Soft Power. successfully applied.S. advanced technology. and religious fanatics use the nation's very strengths-its openness. Not because we have embraced multilateralism.S. More than ever before. so Washington resorts to quiet arm-twisting and blandishments to obtain counterterror concessions. unilaterally if necessary. such as economic disaster. proquest. nontraditional security threats such as disease. it is harder for leaders in these countries to openly embrace counterterrorism cooperation with the United States. in part because America's image in Turkey was so poor. a longtime US ally. US leadership is key to solving the economy. so is followership. and freedom of movement-against it. . Not because they love us. proliferation. Instead. outbreak of disease. In addition. “Winning the War of Ideas. the Bush administration could not convince Turkey. or elimination-requires the help of others. disease. a fact that even the White House recognizes. military success in Afghani. in addition to rooting out and destroying individual militant cells. with a decline in soft power. as demonstrated on September 11. Newer. 104. Vol. visiting scholar in the Carnegie Endowment’s China Program.S. accessed 07/10/07 A broad decline in soft power has many practical implications. Washington is simply less able to persuade others.” Current History. The 2002 National security Strategy emphasizes that winning the war on terror requires the United States to lead a battle of ideas against the ideological roots of terrorism. disease. Lennon. security. influence.. war. With America's image declining in nations like Thailand and Pakistan. human trafficking. or theft of a weapon of mass destruction.stan. it magni.Soft Power – General Impacts Soft Power is key to solving competitiveness. Force is not a long-term solution. silencing critics and creating a bandwagon effect among friends.

the US won’t just give up Layne June 2012 (Chris.Zero Chances of willful US restraint – we’ll inevitably be engaged globally – the only question is effectiveness Shalmon and Horowitz 09 (Dan. regardless of its political complexion.C. professor and Robert M.24 . The Global Power Shift from West to East. economic and demographic challenges. Pax Americana also is winding down. Mike. The United States can manage this relative decline effectively over the next couple of decades only if it first acknowledges the fundamental reality of decline . irregular/asymmetric threats are inevitable given America’s role in the global order. power two reasons. lexis) THE CONSTELLATION of world power is changing. Even Layne agrees. While superficially appealing because it holds out the prospect of a peaceful transition to a new international order. grand strategy will have to change with it. The problem is that many Americans. Australia. This could always change. First. The National Interest. Orbis. and U. for the country faces formidable environmental. particularly among the elites. Nor is it guaranteed to last. The Euro-Atlantic world had a long run of global dominance.S. Second. resource. at present. would voluntarily relinquish power to China.S.US will be more violent and desperate post-decline Dupont June 2012 (Alan. China’s new great-power status is hardly untrammeled. not to mention a rival United States that shows no sign of lapsing into terminal decline despite its current economic travails . the United States is very likely to remain fully engaged in global affairs. American elites must come to grips with the fact that the West does not enjoy a predestined supremacy in international politics that is locked into the future for an indeterminate period of time. administration. remain on the margins of policy debates in Washington D. The National Interest. of course. First.Philadelphia. but it is coming to an end. Sooner than it thinks. professor of international security and director of the Institute for International Security and Development at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. have embraced the notion of American exceptionalism with such fervor that they can’t discern the world transformation occurring before their eyes. allowing Beijing and Washington to divide the region into spheres of influence in much the same way as the United States and the Soviet Union managed a politically bifurcated Europe during the early part of the Cold War. sharing between the United States and China is unlikely to work for no U. However. Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. lexis) What of the argument that America should accept the inevitable and share power with China as an equal? Paralleling the G-2 would be an Asia-2. while popular in some segments of academia. it is a given that the United States will define its interests globally and pursue a strategy that requires capable military forces able to project power around the world. W. just as China wouldn’t if the roles were reversed. Beijing may have to confront the prospect of a resurgent Washington determined to reassert its strategic interests. Because ‘‘indirect’’ counter-strategies are the rational choice for actors facing a strong state’s power projection. Gates Chair in National Security at Texas A & M University’s George H. Graduate Student in the PhD Program in Political Science . An Asian Security Standoff. Advocates of restraint or global withdrawal. Bush School of Government and Public Service. Spring) It is important to recognize at the outset two key points about United States strategy and the potential costs and benefits for the United States in a changing security environment.International Relations at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.¶ At the same time.AT: Heg Bad – Hard Power Inevitable Decline makes all their turns worse. All their turns are inevitable . The future is more likely to be shaped by the East.

dominant powers (or a coalition of status quo states) have occasionally tried to attack and destroy a competitor before it can grow strong enough to become a threat. America is still “number one. they look for ways to satisfy their demands and ambitions and seek to incorporate them peacefully into the existing international order. lexis) THE UNITED States and the People’s Republic of China are locked in a quiet but increasingly intense struggle for power and influence. Like Japan in the late nineteenth century. rising powers feel constrained. Throughout history. is among the oldest in recorded history. Established powers tend to regard themselves as the defenders of an international order that they helped to create and from which they continue to benefit. And in spite of what many earnest and well-intentioned commentators seem to believe. to protect their citizens far from home. ascendant states typically feel impelled to challenge territorial boundaries. The resulting clash of interests between the two sides has seldom been resolved peacefully . when a new. But these countries are not just any two great powers: Since the end of the Cold War the United States has been the richest and most powerful nation in the world. feeding its ambitions and triggering a spiral of escalating demands.-China relationship is competitive. an aggressor may have ambitions that are so extensive as to be impossible for the status quo powers to satisfy without effectively consigning themselves to servitude or committing national suicide. with its Shakespearean overtones of youth and age. relations between dominant and rising states have been uneasy—and often violent. The stakes are about as high as they can get. professor of politics and international affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University. materials and transportation routes. then. taking steps to ensure access to markets. As was true of Adolf Hitler’s Germany. Aaron L. . As they begin to assert themselves. to have what they consider to be their rightful say in the affairs of their region and of the wider world. have so often been marked by war. in general. to promulgate their religious or ideological beliefs. Others—hoping to avoid war—have taken the opposite approach: attempting to appease potential challengers . vigor and decline. and the potential for conflict particularly fraught. of course. Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics. it is driven instead by forces that are deeply rooted in the shifting structure of the international system and in the very different domestic political regimes of the two Pacific powers.AT: Heg Bad . rising states tend to be troublemakers. As a nation’s capabilities grow. As far back as the fifth century BC the great Greek historian Thucydides began his study of the Peloponnesian War with the deceptively simple observation that the war’s deepest. Indeed. and. Recognizing the growing threat to their position. China is. the dominant states are often either reluctant to make concessions. This. even cheated. or too eager to do so. to defend their foreign friends and allies. its leaders generally define their interests more expansively and seek a greater degree of influence over what is going on around them. truest cause was “the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta. not only in Asia. The National Interest. is simply no surprise. At least insofar as the dominant powers are concerned.S. This is why periods of transition.. principal beneficiaries and main defenders of any existing international system. or Germany at the turn of the twentieth. the state whose capabilities have been growing most rapidly. rising powers want their place in the sun .” but China is fast gaining ground. Sometimes the reason clearly lies in the demands of the rising state. ascending power begins to overtake the previously dominant state. the nascent SinoAmerican rivalry is not merely the result of misperceptions or mistaken policies. Successful policies of appeasement are conceivable in theory but in practice have proven devilishly difficult to implement. Even when the demands being made of them are less onerous. these efforts have almost always ended in failure. by contrast.” The fact that the U. but around the world. But however sincere.Transition  War Transition from US dominance causes conflict. by the status quo and struggle against it to take what they think is rightfully theirs. thereby fueling the frustrations and resentments of the rising power. this story line. international institutions and hierarchies of prestige that were put in place when they were still relatively weak. This means that those in ascendance typically attempt not only to secure their borders but also to reach out beyond them.perception of weakness spurs war.history proves Friedberg 2011 (July/August. is what brings them into conflict with the established great powers —the so-called status quo states—who are the architects.

say. And that is also true today. less hospitable for foreigners seeking to work. wherever they choose. The defining characteristic of our age is not a shift of power upward to supranational institutions. As the United States sought to protect itself after a second September 11 devastates. as Europe's Muslim enclaves grew. But what of the growing pretensions to autonomy of the supranational bodies created under U. Technology has upgraded destruction. A coming retreat into fortified cities. The trouble is. For the world is much more populous—roughly 20 times more—so friction between the world's disparate “tribes” is bound to be more frequent. and cruise liners. and the World Trade Organization (formerly the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) each considers itself in some way representative of the “international community. The wealthiest ports of the global economy—from New York to Rotterdam to Shanghai—would become the targets of plunderers and pirates. By contrast. nor an all-embracing Empire of Heaven. Incipient anarchy. unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires. targeting oil tankers. increasing trans-Atlantic tensions over the Middle East to the breaking point. All the empires claimed to rule the world. too.Heg Solves War Collapse of US hegemony causes a global power vacuum resulting in nuclear war Ferguson 04 professor of history at New York University's Stern School of Business and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University (Niall. aircraft carriers. Certainly. so it is now possible not just to sack a city but to obliterate it. leadership after the Second World War? The United Nations. These groups can operate. Technology has transformed production. Religious revivals. Houston or Chicago.” Surely their aspirations to global governance are fundamentally different from the spirit of the Dark Ages? Yet universal claims were also an integral part of the rhetoric of that era. from Hamburg to Gaza. So what is left? Waning empires. With the end of states' monopoly on the means of violence and the collapse of their control over channels of communication. An economic meltdown in China would plunge the Communist system into crisis. unaware of the existence of other civilizations. one can imagine the world's established powers—the United States. the World Bank. it seems. however. Meanwhile. in fact. terrorists could disrupt the freedom of the seas. was not a global Christendom. Foreign Policy ) Could an apolar world today produce an era reminiscent of the age of Alfred? It could. With ease. and capital—has raised living standards throughout the world. the free flow of destructive technology empowers both criminal organizations and terrorist cells. . “A World without Power”. These are the Dark Age experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving. the writ of the international community is not global at all. except where countries have shut themselves off from the process through tyranny or civil war. Western investors would lose out and conclude that lower returns at home are preferable to the risks of default abroad.AT: Heg Bad . some. The worst effects of the new Dark Age would be felt on the edges of the waning great powers. humanity has entered an era characterized as much by disintegration as integration. The reality was political fragmentation. If free flows of information and of means of production empower multinational corporations and nongovernmental organizations (as well as evangelistic religious cults of all denominations).S. of course. labor. increasingly confined to a few Page 5 strategic cities such as Kabul and Pristina. now human societies depend not merely on freshwater and the harvest but also on supplies of fossil fuels that are known to be finite. Islamist extremists' infiltration of the EU would become irreversible. The reversal of globalization— which a new Dark Age would produce—would certainly lead to economic stagnation and even depression. and China—retreating into their own regional spheres of influence . it would inevitably become a less open society. or do business. that this Dark Age would be an altogether more dangerous one than the Dark Age of the ninth century. It is. Europe. For more than two decades. visit. the International Monetary Fund. it is the nonstate actors who truly wield global power—including both the monks and the Vikings of our time. maybe even believed that they did. In short. The reality. globalization—the integration of world markets for commodities. while Western nations frantically concentrated on making their airports secure. but downward. though with some important and troubling differences.

Finally. Second.S.) Under the third option. or even a return to the good old balance of power. and the rule of law.S. who would wish to leave their privately guarded safe havens to go there? For all these reasons. religious orders . the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -.2. In Africa. threats of regional hegemony by renegade states. “Losing the Moment?” The Washington Quarterly 18. Spring 1995. including a global nuclear exchange. The alternative to unipolarity would not be multipolarity at all. but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers. the prospect of an apolar world should frighten us today a great deal more than it frightened the heirs of Charlemagne. limited nuclear wars could devastate numerous regions. beginning in the Korean peninsula and Kashmir. the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. And far more dangerous forces than rival great powers would benefit from such a not-so-new world disorder Lack of hegemony  extinction Khalilzad.S. . It would be apolarity—a global vacuum of power. The few remaining solvent airlines would simply suspend services to many cities in these continents. this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. and low-level conflicts. such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems. First. U. wretchedly poor citizens would seek solace in Evangelical Christianity imported by U. On balance. If the United States retreats from global hegemony — its fragile self-image dented by minor setbacks on the imperial frontier—its critics at home and abroad must not pretend that they are ushering in a new era of multipolar harmony. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system. Be careful what you wish for. the great plagues of AIDS and malaria would continue their deadly work. In Latin America. Lexis. RAND Corporation. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival. free markets. Rand Corporation 1995 (Zalmay Khalilzad. perhaps ending catastrophically in the Middle East.Meanwhile. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself. U. such as nuclear proliferation.democracy.

once states are governed democratically. December. and enduring trading partnerships. The first has been a more peaceful world. accountability. power behind it. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies. This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests. who organize to protest the destruction of their environments . primacy. but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood. http://www. Everything we think of when we consider the current international order--free trade. Nov/Dec2006 Issue 86. open.org//sub/pubs/deadly/diam_rpt. Stanford University. During the Cold War. chemical and biological weapons continue to proliferate. and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency.carnegie. appears increasingly endangered. Today. p32-37) Throughout history. Without U. PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN THE 1990S. peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power -Rome. Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened.” National Interest.Heg Solves Democracy Heg promotes democracy Thayer 6 (Bradley A.html) Nuclear. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. 1995. India and Pakistan.S. American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism: Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because. spreading democracy helps maintain U. South Korea and Japan. Prof of Defense and Strategic Studies @ Missouri State University.S.. with its provisions for legality. Most of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy. And so. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists. The experience of this century offers important lessons. as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue. In addition. the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced.AT: Heg Bad . . leadership.S." Consequently. it is important to note what those good things are. democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United States. increasing respect for human rights. popular sovereignty and openness. Democratic countries form more reliable.S. Israel and Egypt. such as in Darfur. the global ecosystem. American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned--between Greece and Turkey. Indonesia and Australia . Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U. most notably France and West Germany.( n3) So. power. Rather. Indeed they do. Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one another. liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview. power. Democracy solves extinction Diamond 95 (Larry Diamond. Democratic governments do not ethnically "cleanse" their own populations . Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against one another.S. U. Britain or the United States today. American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world. it is because they are more open. Second. The very source of life on Earth. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. Hoover Institution. They are more environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own citizens. particularly war's worst form: great power wars. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse.. growing democratization-is directly linked to U. p. As country and western great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it). In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for investment.S. a robust monetary regime. the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics. “In Defense of Primacy. They do not build weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another. more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U. in general.

etc. Weakness. Missouri State University (Bradley A. as regional hegemons. — do you believe his global repositioning will cause the most damage? Dr.S. BC: Can Obama get any more mileage from his perpetually played “I’m not George W. Hanson: Two considerations: 1) It’s hard (in addition to being shameless). To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression. So the apologies and bows don’t go over well here at home. predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. — are just waiting to see who’s going to be the first to try Obama — and whether Obama really will be as tenuous as they expect. when we saw the rise of radical Islam. Iran. Pakistan.. and it cannot hide from threats. while insidiously There’s an outside shot that North Korea might do something really stupid near the 38th parallel and China will ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan. 06 – Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. after a year. Most are starting to see that our relations with Britain. the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Venezuela. rogue states or rising powers. and Russia will continue its energy bullying of Eastern Europe . Italy. In other words. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics. “In Defense of Primacy. Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson. it seems to be a losing trope. the Iranian hostage mess. Germany. as his polls continue to stay below 50 percent. then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from Causes global wars that escalate – perception is key Victor Davis Hanson (Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution. If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States. Ditto the mea culpas. BC: With what country then — Venezuela. Iran. one more will be really toxic. or France are no better under Obama — and probably worse — than during the Bush administration. retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy. Iran to get the bomb and begin to threaten ever so insidiously its Gulf neighborhood.AT: Heg Bad – Heg Solves Deterrence Heg collapse emboldens rogues – it signals weakness Thayer. Whether they are terrorists. for any president to keep scapegoating a prior administration. politically speaking. Washington cannot call a "time out". Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home". Indeed. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom. thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half-pledges to defend its interests and allies. etc. friendship and values are liabilities. 2) I think he will drop the reset/“Bush did it” throat-clearing soon. whom it will bite or when. Hanson: I think all three. Stanford University) December 2009 “Change.” National Interest. Hanson: Obama is one bow and one apology away from a circus . If he slips once. in the next three years. Lexis) In contrast. Syria. a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. it will be 1979 redux. We are now in a great waiting game. . Bush” card or is that card past its expiration date? Dr. November/December. however trivial. The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics. Much of diplomacy rests on public perceptions.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disasterobama/showLastReply Dr. etc . The world can understand a kowtow gaffe to some Saudi royals. but not as part of a deliberate pattern.” http://www. Venezuela will probably cook up some scheme to do a punitive border raid into Colombia to apprise South America that U.resistnet. Americans hate whining and blamegaming. India’s borders with both Pakistan and China will heat up. poll-wise. does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat. Disaster. North Korea. Russia. history shows that threats must be confronted. I would expect. I think we got off the back of the tiger and now no one quite knows pressuring autonomous former republics to get back in line with some sort of new Russian autocratic commonwealth. the communist inroads in Central America. wishing to redraw the existing landscape — whether China.

And what the trends suggest is that America’s economic.S. From 1961 to 1968 North Vietnamese and Vietcong units brought down 1. military has vulnerabilities. social.211 It is certainly true.208 In particular. because they lack the economic capacity to maintain.‐denial” capabilities are outpacing U. even after controlling for numerous material. 73. soldiers. None of this should be cause for chest-‐thumping. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations. and trends point toward continued unipolarity Beckley 2012 (Michael.”207 Figure 3. Dissertation found on google scholar) More important. 1993-‐2000. and military lead over China will be an enduring feature of international relations . China’s per capita income has declined relative to that of the United States. share of the world conventional arms market surged to 68 percent while China’s share dropped below 1. The Unipolar Era: Why American Power Persists and China’s Rise Is Limited. technological. an independent task force of more than thirty experts recently found “no evidence to support the notion that China will become a peer military competitor of the United States. regardless of the size of their defense budgets. But this has always been the case.AT: Heg Bad . modernize. 2001.212 Sixty years ago. however.Its Sustainable Heg is sustainable.20: Share of World Arms Transfer Agreements.” compensating for its technological and organizational inferiority by utilizing asymmetric strategies.S. In a separate study.700 U. As noted earlier.S. but its performance in battle against the United States would not necessarily be much better than that of. Conclusion Change is inevitable.206 Multivariate regressions suggest that military effectiveness is determined by a country’s level of economic development. the gap in defense spending likely understates the true military gap because U. In the coming decades. China can “pose problems without catching up. local knowledge. that the U. economic superiority literally gives the United States “more bang for the buck” – each dollar it spends on the military produces more force than each dollar China spends. weak adversaries can impose significant costs. p. If history is any guide. but it is often incremental and nonlinear. or even declining.S. and integrate individual technologies into cohesive military systems. China’s defense industry has also fallen further behind : in 2008. but evidence of American vulnerability is not the same as evidence of American decline. Indeed.…The military balance today and for the foreseeable future strongly favors the United States and its allies. 71. helicopters and aircraft with simple antiaircraft artillery and no early warning radar. Iraq circa 1991. . and a greater willingness to bear costs. I found that developing countries systematically fail at warfare. 1993-‐2008 Source: Congressional Research Service. efforts to counter them.‐2008. China may surge out of its unimpressive condition and close the gap with the United States. say. China projected a huge army into Korea and killed tens of thousands of U.challengers can’t make up the power differential. p. The best that can be done is to make plans for the future on the basis of present trends. Or China might continue to rise in place – steadily improving its capabilities in absolute terms while stagnating. relative to the United States. PhD candidate at the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences at Columbia. as measured by per capita income.210 There is also reason to doubt the strategic importance of China’s capabilities because the United States may be able to launch effective attacks from positions beyond the reach of Chinese missiles and submarines. Yes. Ibid. not a passing moment in time. and political factors. the U. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations. The PLA may look increasingly respectable on paper. but a deeply embedded material condition that will persist for the foreseeable future .S.209 There are reasons to doubt this claim – the Pentagon is developing sophisticated countermeasures and Chinese writings may purposefully exaggerate PLA capabilities. some experts believe China’s “anti-area. especially in littorals and low-‐altitudes close to enemy territory.S. this growing economic gap is also a growing military gap.5 percent..

the absolute security threshold should not pose the same problem because of the logical limits in determining it." 59 It is therefore reasonable to assume that the absolute security threshold is around 45 percent of the military capabilities in the system. the absence of balancing against the United States today appears less puzzling. making balancing futile. 60 In this light. then the unipolar power would need more than 50 percent of the capabilities in the great power system to stave off a counterpoise. Institutions.1. For decades. other countries benefiting from U. Without even throwing the technological sophistication of American weaponry (or the collective action problems that many states confront when deciding to act in the national interest) into the balance. there are also economic advantages associated with this privileged position in the security field. because at this level the sum of all the forces opposing the aspiring hegemon is insufficient to successfully balance it. History at the University of Bologna. 63 U. No balancing – US lead is insurmountable and is growing Carla Norrlof (an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto) 2010 “America’s Global Advantage US Hegemony and International Cooperation” p. The European Union. Spring. primacy appear not to be worried about it. postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Politics. primacy. The Security Curve and the Structure of International Politics. 19 As illustrated in table 2. The increased its share of world military spending in the last twenty years. and Syria. it is useful to consider William Wohlforth's admonition: "If balancing were the frictionless. the absolute threshold should represent 50 percent of the capabilities in the system. and is able to reap economic benefits as a result of its hegemonic position. Although some question the utility of armed force. only accounts for 5 percent of the world total. But what about the economic realm? The real test is whether the United States still towers over other countries economically. the United States faces very few constraints in the security arena . the Soviet Union maintained a rough balance with the United States. whereas China. few will contest that the United States is in a league of its own when it comes to security affairs. the Soviet Union was the closest rival in 1988. Russia. the country with the second largest share today. A Neorealist Synthesis. But the European Union’s share does not amount to even half of the United States’ share of the world total. International Security. and other states’ dependence on it for effective action. but they lack the capabilities to challenge it. Counting coalitions as potential balancers. As I will also show in chapter 6. 62 Part of the answer lies in the United States' unusual path to primacy. The next section considers hegemonic strategies that can soften opposition. lexis) In principle.bandwagoning is more likely. but the outcome was not planned. . accounting for 18 percent of the world total. accounts for a larger share than did the Soviet Union in 1988 . The United States has already moved beyond the absolute threshold. But such expectations miss the fact that alliance politics always impose costs.S. Still. or even Brazil and Pakistan. Moreover. may not like U. Ideally. Iran. This is the figure William Thompson suggests in describing a near-unipolar system. 64 The extraordinarily wide gap in capabilities created by the fall of the Soviet Union left other states with little choice but to acquiesce. primacy resulted from the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union. This is the claim that is likely to be the most carefully scrutinized. . Because of the superiority of American military power. It may be an exaggeration to suggest that the United States became a hegemon by accident.S.S. costless activity assumed in some balance-of-power theories. 61 Levy and Thompson raise the important question of why other states failed to balance against the United States when it was a rising power but not yet a hegemon. 65 Meanwhile. Countries such as China. . the euro area still accounts for a lower share today than did the Soviet Union in 1988. . it is clear that the United States is peerless in the security sphere and has strengthened its lead in the last two decades. The 2003 invasion of Iraq is a case in point but there are plenty of other examples. on the other hand.AT: Heg Bad – No Counter Balancing No counterbalancing.maintaining the power gap key to prevent challengers Fiammenghi 2011 (Davide. the United States is by far the largest military spender and has actually United States’ lead over its nearest competitor is actually stronger in the security arena than it was in 1988 .

warning that if the "downward spiral [in diplomacy] is not reversed. One recent bipartisan report on American diplomacy concluded as much."34 . Even without China on the scene. the prospect of relying on military force to protect US national interests will increase. and potentially makes the United States more likely to resort to force rather than persuasion to meet American objectives. pg. Charm Offensive. fellow at the USC School of Public Diplomacy and the Pacific Council on International Policy and previous foreign editor at The New Republic. America's declining popularity decreases Washington's soft power.AT: Heg Bad – Link Turn Low US soft power leads to an increase in unilateralism. 194) This unpopularity matters. Kurlantzick 07 (Joshua.

and only after normalization. all states could derive benefit from the public information campaigns to promote energy efficiency and conservation presently being promoted in Cuba in the face of diminishing energy stocks and uncertain global markets. from increasing oil production and refining capacity.fiu. “The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special. because up until this point it hasn’t cost the United States much if anything. is a major contributor. Report for the Cuban Research Institute. Second.pdf) Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face of a continuing opposition by the United States to anything resembling what can be construed as “good news” for the Castro regime? Obviously. It has significantly increased its international cooperation in the energy sector and continues to enhance its efforts to ensure energy security in these most uncertain of times. design and implement energy development policies that will benefit Cuba for generations to come. of which the U. Cuba may indeed realize a bonanza from the offshore tracts that will allow it to possibly address its many energy challenges. will play important roles in the funding of the effort to revitalize the Cuban energy sector. This is important not only because it will allow direct foreign investment. the region. Ultimately. Treasurer of the American Political Science Association. inasmuch as American corporations. First. the task still falls to the Cuban government. Cuba is sparing no effort by instituting bottom-up and top-down policy initiatives to meet this challenge. It suffices to say that the requisite investment and assistance will have a distinct American tinge to it. Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO. is the possibility of normalization of trade relations with the United States. and no less significant. to improving the nation’s energy infrastructure.S. they will come up short. realized through a division of labor and dispersion of resources that serve as a hedge against natural disaster and market disruptions.AT: Not Enough Oil US-Cuban joint oil production is the critical key to US oil selfsufficiency---there are massive amounts of offshore oil waiting to be tapped Benjamin-Alvadaro 6 (Jonathan. but the cost will necessarily be spread through a number of sources that are predominately American because of strategic interests. The current policy continues to clearly place at the forefront the sanctity and utility of a comprehensive economic and political embargo in the hopes that it helps to foment a change in regime and a peaceful transition to a democratic system of governance and a complimentary market economy. As energy security concerns continue to percolate up to an increasingly important status in the realm of national security objectives we may begin to see the erosion of the hard position against the Cuban regime regardless of its leadership. U. and international financial institutions. proximity and affinity.¶ The overview of the Cuban energy developments clearly and unambiguously reveals that the Castro regime has every intention of continuing to promote. government agencies. ensuring a stable energy future. Cuban officials are not averse and perhaps would prefer that the U. and hence. be its major partner in this effort owing to the fact that most if not all of . technology transfer and information sharing between these neighboring states but it possibly enhances the energy security of both states. Moreover.edu/research/commissionedreports/oil-cuba-alvarado. Florida International University. PhD.S.S.” http://cri. But it stands to reason that no matter how successful these efforts are. Two factors may alter this present situation.

in large part because of the American economic embargo. oil and gas comes from the United States.the cutting-edge technology in energy. This should serve as an obvious point of entry into cooperation with the Cuban government and perhaps can serve as a catalyst for promoting confidence. trust and cooperation in this critical issue area across the region. the American role in assisting Cuba in this effort will be significant and every day that the task is put off. For this reason alone. the cost is significant and it stands to reason that the longer one waits to address the challenge at hand the higher the cost of modernizing the energy sector . it increases the long-term cost of the effort. absent the type of infrastructural investment that is available to most developing states. It is remarkable that the Cuban energy sector is as vibrant as it presently is. ¶ Finally. .

PhD. and reports indicate that Cuba is taking safety seriously.S.S. Policy Considerations.S. including projects in the U. 2010. Cooperative Oxford Laboratory. PdVSA does not. but its offshore project appears the furthest from seeing drilling activity among existing licenses. p. Hofstra University School of Law. foreign sources have provided supplemental alternatives. L.31 Among other Cuban lease holders. Fall 2011.” online: http://assets.. Former Director. It has had issues with oil spills. 12 Sustainable Dev. According to Saipem.AT: Environment Turn Cuba won’t spill---they’ll be safe and U. including extra equipment to shut off blown-out wells beyond what is required in the United States. which is not abnormal for an oil company." and that "they are very knowledgeable of international industry practices and have incorporated many of these principles into their safety and regulatory planning and requirements.” Sustainable Development Law & Policy. technology transfer are overblown." n65 Thus. Scarabeo-9 is built to Norwegian standards.cfm) There is evidence that marine organisms and ecosystems are resilient to environmental change.30 Repsol has significant offshore experience. lexis Fears that Cuban offshore drilling poses serious environmental threats because of the proximity to the United States and the prohibition on U.opencrs. J. which may allow for adaptation to climate change.com/rpts/R41522_20101129. including projects in the U.pewclimate. Specialist in Latin American Affairs at the Congressional Research Service.S. (Victor. Petrobras and Statoil have extensive offshore experience . “Cuba’s Offshore Oil Development: Background and U. Steele components of marine systems are tightly coupled to physical factors. November 29. involvement isn’t key Richard Sadowski 11. n66 Companies investing in Cuba have extensive offshore experience---no risk of spills Nerurkar & Sullivan 10 – Neelesh Nerurkar. Maryland. Sullivan. while the economic embargo of Cuba restricts American technology from being utilized. allowing them to respond quickly to rapid environmental change and thus rendering them ecologically adaptable .pdf It is difficult to assess the likelihood of a spill . (1991) hypothesized that the biological . and are generally seen as accomplished offshore operators .Environmental science prof. http://www. "[t]he Cuban oil industry has put a lot of research. Cuba has at least as much incentive to ensure safe-drilling practices as does the United States.org/projects/marine. Gulf of Mexico. and PetroVietnam also have offshore experience. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems and Global Climate Change. & Pol'y 37. ONGC. “IN THIS ISSUE: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICT: CUBAN OFFSHORE DRILLING: PREPARATION AND PREVENTION WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE UNITED STATES' EMBARGO.S. Some species also have wide genetic variability throughout their range. n64 Lee Hunt. President of the Houston-based International Association of Drilling Contractors. Specialist in Energy Policy at the Congressional Research Service. said. and Mark P. Gulf of Mexico. study and thought into what will be required to safely drill.D. Petronas. Oceans are resilient Kennedy 2 .

Hutchings 2001a). Powles et al. They argue that percent decline criteria are too conservative compared to the high natural variability of fish populations . Clupeidae) and a nine-fold variation in northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax. are too conservative for marine fishes (Hudson and Mace1996. a decline of 20% within 10 years or three generations (whichever is longer) triggered a classification of 'vulnerable'. These criteria were designed to be applied to all animal and plant taxa. Fish and Fisheries 4. as one example. 2002). Musick 1999.1997. . but many marine resource biologists feel that for marine fishes 'one size does not fit all' (see Hutchings 2001a). be borne in mind that the variation of exploited populations must be higher than unexploited populations because recruitment fluctuations increasingly drive population fluctuations when there are few adults (Pauly et al. respectively. For the (1996) IUCN list. Newcastle (Nicholas. Matsuda et al. (2000) cite the six-fold variation of the Pacific sardine population (Sardinopssagax. 2000. It should.1) Marine fish populations are more variable and resilient than terrestrial populations Great natural variability in population size is sometimes invoked to argue that IUCN Red List criteria. Clupeidae) over the past two millennia to suggest that rapid declines and increases of up to 10-fold are relatively common in exploited fish stocks. while declines of 50 and 80% led to classifications of 'endangered' and 'critically endangered'. Powles et al. Extinction vulnerability in marine populations.Marine life is resilient Dulvy 3 – Professor of Marine Science and Technology. however.

AT: HEALTH CARE DA .

The first is for foreigners who come to Cuba specifically for medical care. The foreigners-only facilities do a big business in what you might call vanity treatments: Botox. liposuction. “We have nothing. they must bring their own bedsheets. putting Cuba ahead of many rich countries.” The tourists pay in hard currency. whatever home is.Health Care DA – 2AC NO IMPACT – Cuban Health care cannot solve disease National Review 7/30/2007 “The Myth of Cuban Health Care” http://www. there is excellent health care on Cuba — just not for ordinary Cubans. It’s like operating with knives and spoons. is a particular menace. and so on. Indeed. In the Soviet Union. whatever he does with it. These include tuberculosis. This is known as “medical tourism. Infant mortality ties with Canada’s as the lowest in the Americas. As you can well imagine. this causes widespread resentment in the general population. American doctors make sure to take as much equipment and as many supplies as they can carry.com/node/21558613 Until recently. leprosy. People speak of “tourism apartheid. I’ll take them. And the chief of medical services for the whole of the Cuban military had to rent out his car as a taxi on weekends.htm To be sure.” he explained. Though the state still trains armies of doctors. or about 25 dollars. In many hospitals patients must provide their own sheets. or segregated. there are separate hotels. soap. Even if they have passed their expiry date.economist. an exiled doctor named Dessy Mendoza Rivero — a former political prisoner and a spectacularly brave man — wrote a book called ¡Dengue! La Epidemia Secreta de Fidel Castro. If you have any pills in your purse. and typhoid fever. Cubans were justifiably proud of their health-care system. The second health-care system is for Cuban elites — the Party. who are eight times richer. In the real Cuba.” The equipment that doctors have to work with is either antiquated or nonexistent. he earned what most doctors did: 575 pesos a month. patients may be better off at home. “I haven’t seen aspirin in a Cuban store here for more than a year. even sophisticated medications are plentiful and cheap. the one that ordinary people must use — and it is wretched. separate beaches. facilities on Cuba. And dengue. you can call a Cuban with a car privileged. Jaime Suchlicki of the University of Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies explains that there is not just one system. food. like the one for medical tourists. And basic medications are scarce. Testimony and documentation on the subject are vast.” For example. separate restaurants — separate everything. Neglect of infrastructure means that almost 10% of the population lacks . Hospitals and clinics are crumbling. In Sicko. but they have nothing to work with. When they travel to the island. on errands of mercy. Life- expectancy matches that of Americans.” And doctors are not necessarily privileged citizens in Cuba. “The [Cuban] doctors are pretty well trained. Remember. light bulbs — even toilet paper. And the facilities in which they are treated are First World: clean. state-of-the-art. Measles jabs have been near-universal for more than 20 years.” said the nurse. and breast implants.” And their system. well supplied.latinamericanstudies. in 2003.) So deplorable is the state of health care in Cuba that old-fashioned diseases are back with a vengeance. food and dressings.Cuban health care is struggling – the economy and the embargo The Economist 7/14/2012 “Cuban Health Care: Under Investigation” http://www. (Of course. Doctors have been known to reuse latex gloves — there is no choice. But Cuba’s crumbling economy has put this system under stress. Dr. finding an aspirin can be a chore. One told the Associated Press. A doctor in exile told the Miami Herald that. or even two: There are three. which provides oxygen to the regime. another fever. Conditions are so unsanitary. “Everyone tries to survive. Then there is the real Cuban system. If they do have to go to the hospital. these people were called the “nomenklatura. too. He had to sell pork out of his home to get by. a third of these are deployed overseas in “soft-power” missions. is top-notch. NOT UNIQUE . towels. Pharmacies are generally illstocked. the military.org/cuba/health-myth. And an antibiotic will fetch a fortune on the black market. that there are many separate. official artists and writers. A nurse spoke to Isabel Vincent of Canada’s National Post.

com/english/health/2012-11/28/c_132004531.xinhuanet. Raúl Castro. reported this week. The Cuban government also offers scholarships to 20. this sort of economic surgery will need to speed up. "It provides us free medicine across the country." said Director of the institute Dr.Embargo restricts Cuba from access to necessary medicines and tech Xinhua News 11/28/2012 “Cuban healthcare weakended by U. maternal mortality has risen. Lorenzo Llerena." he said. John Rhodes. sometimes we do not have all the raw materials and tools to solve certain problems immediately. Inequality” page proquest And now health services and education are becoming harder to access and getting worse . But the main reason for the shortage of medical staff is low salaries. an American think-tank. the president. is financially strained by the embargo. The public Institute of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery. In 2010. embargo” http://news. Cuban hospitals suffer restrictions in acquiring imported medical consumables and medicine. officials said. She has two small children. "because they are manufactured in the United States. a patient. "We must find alternatives that sometimes include purchasing from distant markets. the Caribbean and Central America. As a doctor "I faced a choice of buying shoes or eating." The embargo has caused Cuba a loss of more than 200 million dollars in the medical sector alone by 2011.Cuban medical authorities said on Tuesday a 50-year trade embargo imposed by the United States has severely undermined the country's healthcare system. this correspondent came across an elderly woman who had hurt her arm and was whimpering with pain. advanced medical technology and latest scientific information. Although infant mortality has continued to fall. mammograms and cancer therapy is hard to replace. Nov. A pair of children's shoes costs $13. which means higher prices for these products. embargo. NOT UNIQUE . On a weekday morning in a village in the inappropriately named municipality of La Salud ("health"). There are reports of doctors starting to demand payment. mostly in Venezuela but also in Africa. currently restricted to farming.Health care declining – supplies & staff The Economist 3/24/2012 “The deal's off.access to clean drinking water. Hospital patients sometimes have to bring their own sheets.S. A woman who gave her name as Grisel says she worked as a family doctor for just $23 a month. He added some equipments were simply unattainable. Secondary-school enrolment is below its 1989 peak. The American embargo against the island does not help: equipment for radiology. If the health service is to thrive again. Many drugs are in short supply." . buying from third parties. adding "due to the U. is trying to revive the economy by cautiously transferring chunks of it into private hands.000 Cuban doctors and other health workers were working in 77 countries around the world. which is highly expensive around the world." LINK TURN . where thousands of people receive free medical care every year from international specialists. but now earns $40 a month in an improvised craft shop in Havana. There is a surfeit of humanities graduates and a shortage of agronomists and engineers. told Xinhua that Cuba had made a great effort for the benefit of all its citizens. representing a significant impact on the tiny Caribbean nation.htm HAVANA.S. says Julia Sweig of the Council on Foreign Relations. having found no doctors in attendance at two health clinics. who this month visited China and Vietnam. The next step. 37. will be to let transport and other service workers form cooperatives. according to official figures. south of the capital.000 Latin Americans to study medicine--all part of its obsessive search for international prestige. 27 (Xinhua) -.

” 46 .LINK TURN .org/pdfs/amr250072009eng.pdf The negative impact of the US embargo on the Cuban health care system and on the right to health of Cubans during the 1990s has been documented in a 1997 report by the American Association for World Health (AAWH). lack of access to medicines and medical supplies. the U. and limited the exchange of medical and scientific information due to travel restrictions and currency regulations.amnestyusa. the AAWH identified that the embargo contributed particularly to malnutrition affecting especially women and children.Embargo devastates health care system – supplies & lack of information exchange Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.45 The 300-page document is still the most comprehensive study on the issue. poor water quality. Based on a fact-finding mission to Cuba.S. embargo of food and the de facto embargo on medical supplies has wreaked havoc with the island's model primary health care system. The AAWH found that “a humanitarian catastrophe has been averted only because the Cuban government has maintained a high level of budgetary support for a health care system designed to deliver primary and preventive health care to all of its citizens… Even so.

"My guess is that there's some kind of policy statement to follow. 10 Despite the production of medical supplies and technology . not much by outside standards. long considered a birthright by its citizens and trumpeted as one of the communist government's great successes. but quite a bit for Cuba. But it's also raising the eyebrows of outside analysts.global- politics. Every year Cuba exports huge amounts of medical aid.14 for each X-ray and $6. and it became clear this month that Castro is looking for more ways to save when the newspaper voice of the Communist Party.com/2012/08/27/cuba-healthcare_n_1832955. which spends $190 million a year paying for its citizens' medical bills. to explain or blunt fears of a drop-off in care and to remind Cubans to be grateful that health care is still free despite persistent economic woes. 13 There are claims that hospitals are often in poor conditions and doctors have to bring in their own supplies and equipment to allow them to treat their patients. food and water for hospital stays. 23 The ‘pesos pharmacies’ and local state hospitals are drastically under-stocked and thus access for the poor to needed medication is minimal.co.Cuba's system of free medical care. mostly to other Latin American countries for purely financial returns. electric fans. 22 For example. It's part of a wider media campaign that seems geared to discourage frivolous use of medical services. is not immune to cutbacks under Raul Castro's drive for efficiency. Based on the official exchange rate. Cubans lack resources for necessary medicine and equipment Global Politics 2007 “The Challenges of Health Care in Cuba” http://www. 14 Cuba’s dual economy has a lot to do with why such disparity exists. Medication and equipment is there and available but only to pay for in American dollars. because that's been the pattern. Pharmacies are often very poorly stocked and rationing of supplies is minimal. published daily details for two weeks on how much the government spends on everything from anesthetics and acupuncture to orthodontics and organ transplants. It's not a luxury service though. The health sector has already endured millions of dollars in budget cuts and tens of thousands of layoffs. Scarcities now are common and sanitary conditions fall short of the ideal in decaying facilities where paint peels from the walls." said Phil Peters. . "Very often the media has been a leading indicator of where the economic reforms are going." The theme of the Granma pieces. despite the service being free. Healthcare may be free and available for all Cuban citizens but medication is not.html HAVANA -. the government spends $2 each time a Cuban visits a family doctor.uk/issue9/hanna/ However. $4.huffingtonpost. challenges remain. Granma.827 for a heart transplant. posters in clinics and ads on state TV is the same: "Your health care is free. of which the poor and middle classes of Cuba are very unlikely to have. a longtime Cuba observer at the Lexington Institute think tank.Health Care DA – N/U Ext Health care system is crumbling – budget cuts Associated Press 8/25/2012 “Cuba Health Care: Budget Cuts Threaten Sector” Huffington Post http://www. it seems very little of this actually remains in Cuba. who predict further cuts or significant changes to what has been a pillar of the socialist system implanted after the 1959 revolution. but how much does it cost?" The answer is. Venezuela provides much-needed oil to Cuba and in exchange receives Cuban doctors and medical supplies. Patients often bring their own bed sheets.

but there are major shipping costs and logistical challenges to contend with.S. the embargo has a sweeping effect on Cuban healthcare . Over the past decades. “This prevents them from having access to the latest pharmaceutical and technological advances.AT: Health Care DA – Link Turn Ext Embargo prevents access to necessary tech SurfKY News 4/15/2013 “UK Delegation Visits Cuba.-owned company abroad. a non-profit organization that encourages cooperation among U. England (CNN) -.health/ LONDON. A U.amnestyusa.The U.S. The Act has been reviewed by U.S. In 2007. trade embargo on Cuba is endangering the health of millions by limiting Cubans' access to medicines and medical technology. human rights group Amnesty International alleged Wednesday.com/index. "It's preventing millions of Cubans from benefiting from vital medicines and medical equipment essential for their health.” Embargo prevents access to tech and medicine CNN 9/02/2009 “Report: U.S. so many of their facilities are very basic. Embargo restricts health care – equipment & chemicals Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.cnn. company. hospitals and day care centers is contributing to a high prevalence of iron deficiency anemia. Amnesty said that while not renewing the Act would not in itself end the embargo against Cuba.5 percent of Cuba's children under three years old.S.php/communities/303-lexington-fayette-county/29814-ukdelegation-visits-cuba-learns-about-its-healthcare-system “Many of the problems with Cuba’s health care system are associated with the American embargo. told CNN that although medicines and medical supplies can be licensed for export to Cuba. Cuba can import these products from other countries. an Amnesty researcher for the Caribbean region.S." She also said the embargo affects the way doctors think about the future. However." Khan said.pdf The provision of health care has also suffered from the limitations and restrictions imposed by the embargo on the procurement of basic and specialized medical equipment and chemical components needed for the production of generic medicines.S. which is due for renewal on September 14. An Amnesty report examines the effects of the sanctions. is adopting a new policy toward Cuba. citizens from visiting relatives in Cuba. The embargo restricts the export of medicines and medical equipment from the U.S. the condition affected 37. presidents on an annual basis since 1978. sanctions put Cubans' health at risk” http://edition.S.S. Amnesty International SecretaryGeneral Irene Khan called the U. In April this year President Obama lifted restrictions that had prevented U. Cuban and global health communities. and sending them remittances. which have been in place since 1962." Reed said. embargo immoral and said it should be lifted. "The president believes it makes strategic sense to hold on to some inducements we can use in dealing with a Cuban government if it shows any signs of seeking a normalized relationship with us and begins to respect basic human rights. Amnesty also called on President Obama to not renew the Trading with the Enemy Act.cuba. Gail Reed is international director of MEDICC (Medical Education Cooperation with Cuba). Gerardo Ducos.S. She told CNN. leaving medical equipment without replacement parts and patients without continuity of medications. and from any U. .” Berres said. Learns About its Healthcare System” http://surfky. "In general. I would say the people most affected have been cancer and HIV-AIDS patients.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. according to UNICEF.com/2009/HEALTH/09/01/amnesty. "Doctors in Cuba always worry that an international supplier will be bought out by a U. it would send a clear message that the U. she said." The Amnesty report also cites United Nations data that says Cuba's inability to import nutritional products for schools.. the conditions governing the process make their export virtually impossible. State Department spokeswoman would not comment on the report because she hadn't read it.

The financial burden and commercial barriers have led to shortages or intermittent availability of drugs.64 . The repercussions of these difficulties are ultimately felt by the intended beneficiaries of these programmes. who face long delays before having access to adequate medicine or treatment.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. Embargo hurts health care – infrastructure Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.pdf The impact of economic sanctions on health and health services is not limited to difficulties in the supply of medicine. Health and health services depend on functioning water and sanitation infrastructure. equipment and spare parts.pdf The increase in the costs for purchasing the necessary medicine or medical materials is hampering the implementation of UN development projects and programmes. It has also hindered the renovation of hospitals.amnestyusa. medicines.amnestyusa. on electricity and other functioning equipment such as X-ray facilities or refrigerators to store vaccines. clinics and care centres for the elderly.Embargo hurts health care – hampers UN programs Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.

State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The only problem with offering more humanitarian aid to Cuba is that it seemingly contradicts current U.S. policy. as applied to humanitarian organizations. The perception in Cuba is that the United States is responsible for the chronic humanitarian crisis that has afflicted the island since 1989. n79 any increase in humanitarian assistance might also require a proportional loosening of the trade and travel restrictions . which aims to isolate and destabilize the regime through economic sanctions. it will still have to be reconciled with an enduring hostile relationship between both countries . n78 While any increase in humanitarian assistance will no doubt be viewed as a positive step in the right direction. However. On the one hand.AT: LIFT TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS CP Removing travel restrictions alone is insufficient to solve the soft power advantave advantage – removing the whole embargo is key Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. since so much of America's humanitarian soft power resources lie outside of government in the private sector and civil society. on the other hand.at least.[*215] Doesn’t solve hard power – lifting the embargo is key to cooperating on oil drilling – that’s the key internal link to hard power .S. humanitarian assistance is the very type of soft power engagement that might help thaw relations between Washington and Havana.

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