Plan

The United States federal government should end its embargo on
Cuba

LEADERSHIP ADV

LEADERSHIP ADV – 1AC
SCENARIO ONE: SOFT POWER:
Anti-Americanism is growing in Latin America – extending an olive
branch to Cuba is necessary to re-establish our regional soft power
Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy

Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis
Anti-Americanism has become the political chant de jour for leaders seeking longterm as well as short-term gains in Latin American elections. In Venezuela, the
anti-American rhetoric spewed by Hugo Chavez masks his otherwise autocratic
tendencies, while countries like Bolivia and Ecuador tilt further away from
Washington, both rhetorically and substantively. The former expelled the U.S. Ambassador in October 2008, and the latter
has refused to renew Washington's lease on an airbase traditionally used for counter-narcotics missions. The systemic
neglect for eight years during the Bush Administration meant that political capital
was never seriously spent dealing with issues affecting the region . Because of this, President
Bush was unable to get much headway with his proposal to reform immigration, and his free trade agreement with Colombia
encountered significant opposition in Congress. Recent examples of U.S. unilateralism, disregard

for
international law and norms, and a growing financial crisis, have all been seized
by a new generation of populist Latin American leaders who stoke anti-American
sentiment.
The region, however, is absolutely critical to our national interest and security. Over
thirty percent of our oil comes from Latin America - more than the U.S. imports
from the Middle East. Additionally, over half of the foreign-born population in the United States is Latin American,
meaning that a significant portion of American society is intrinsically tied to the region. n1 These immigrants, as well as their sons
and daughters, have already begun to take their place amongst America's social, cultural, and political elite.
Just south of America's borders, a deepening polarization is spreading throughout

the entire region. In the last few years ideological allies in Bolivia, Ecuador, and
Venezuela have written and approved new constitutions that have consolidated the
power of the executive, while extending - or in Venezuela's case eliminating presidential term limits. In Venezuela the polarization has been drawn along economic lines, whereby Chavez's base
of support continues to be poor Venezuelans. In Bolivia the polarization has been drawn along racial lines: the preamble to the new
Bolivian constitution, approved in January 2009, makes reference to the "disastrous colonial times," a moment in history that
Bolivians of Andean-descent particularly lament. Those regions in Bolivia with the most people of European or mixed descent have
consistently voted for increased provincial autonomy and against the constitutional changes proposed by President Morales.
Perhaps due to its sweeping changes, the new Constitution was rejected by four of Bolivia's nine provinces. n2 Like Bolivia, Latin
America is still searching for its identity.
[*191] Traditionally the U.S. has projected its influence by using varying

combinations of hard and soft power. It has been a long time since the U nited States
last sponsored or supported military action in Latin America, and although highly contextdependent, it is very likely that Latin American citizens and their governments would view any
overt display of American hard power in the region negatively. n3 One can only imagine the
fodder an American military excursion into Latin America would provide for a leader like Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, or Evo Morales
of Bolivia. Soft power, on the other hand, can win over people and governments without

resorting to coercion, but is limited by other factors.
The key to soft power is not simply a strong military, though having one helps, but rather an
enduring sense of legitimacy that can then be projected across the globe to
advance particular policies. The key to this legitimacy is a good image and a
reputation as a responsible actor on the global and regional stage. A good
reputation and image can go a long way toward generating goodwill, which
ultimately will help the U.S. when it tries to sell unpopular ideas and reforms in
the region. n4

of the important relationship between the U.S. n119 China also timed the release of a new policy paper on Sino-Latin American relations to coincide with President Hu's most recent trip to the region. trade between China and Latin America hovered around $ 13 billion. but in 2007. the U. not lectures. but also the Latin American people. China's interest in Latin America is also based on its increasingly assertive global political agenda. environmental scientists seek out "keystone species. or barometers of. Many of the problems facing Latin America today cannot be addressed in the absence of U. the U. Working with other nations to address these challenges is the best way to shore up legitimacy. US influence in Latin America is key to prevent Chinese crowd in – the impact is cyber war Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. both economically and politically. trade between China and Latin America is likely to grow during the next five years. every country in Latin America is a potential friend. having disproportionately dominated Washington's policy toward the region for decades. as well as political and economic exchanges. n8 In short." whereby China steps in to fill the gap left by America's absence." These are organisms that. and would go a long way toward creating goodwill. will remain the major powerbroker in the Americas for decades to come. China quickly displaced the United States as that country's largest export market. who look to us for "ideas and solutions. warming relations with Cuba would have a reverberating effect throughout Latin America. American clout correspondingly decreases in terms of relative power. despite their small size. function as lynchpins for. not just Latin America's leaders. with an annual trade growth of 30% since 2001. Cuba.S. but will increasingly have to make room for a new player. in regions all around the world.S. n6 As a result of its continuing tensions with Havana. cross-cultural educational exchanges. where it is now the continent's third largest trading partner. and Latin America. and by 2008 total trade was valued at $ 140 billion. that number had increased to $ 102 billion. but also win over new allies. To be sure. must repair its image by going on a diplomatic offensive and reminding. President Hu rewarded Costa Rica's new policy by visiting San Jose and signing a free trade agreement in 2010. . as has its ability to deal with other countries. leadership and cooperation.S. n115 American disinterest in Latin America has convinced many countries to adopt a "Pacific view. Although this proposal focuses heavily on Cuba.In order to effectively employ soft power in Latin America. The Chinese government has invested a tremendous amount of soft power in Latin America .S. America must once again be admired if we are going to expect other countries to follow our example. and the Obama Administration. Washington will have to not only strengthen its existing relationships in the region. and repair America's image. n120 As China's role in Latin America increases. a move heavily courted by Chinese officials. such as bilateral trade agreements . China also [*224] recently displaced the U. Given this diminishing economic position. despite its size and isolation.S. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The absence of a strong American presence over the last eight years has also given China the opportunity to step in as a major player. It charts China's growing relationship with Latin America and promises increased cooperation in scientific and technological research." n5 When analyzing ecosystems. Washington will have to rely more heavily on diplomatic initiatives that shore up credibility rather than simply economic incentives and disincentives. as Brazil's biggest trading partner. earn respect. will have to pass a Cuba litmus test of its own. is a keystone nation in Latin America. Latin American governments that hoped to endear themselves to the U." But now the tables have turned. n117 In 2000. had to pass the Cuba "litmus test. n7 For fifty years. n116 After signing a free trade agreement with Chile. if it wants to repair America's image in the region. In 2008. but particularly in Latin America. America's reputation [*192] in the region has suffered. the entire system's stability . In 2007. To that end. n118 Even despite the current financial crisis.S. Costa Rica dropped its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan.

China is neurotic about the functional American presence in Taiwan and has made its intentions for the island known to everyone. This is because our nation's critical infrastructures -. as well as half its annual output of nickel. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory.S. Several notable contributions follow. l/n) And this is not just a criminal problem. 2000 (Michael.S. exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. And that dependence makes them vulnerable to an attack which . Development of such capabilities may already be happening.are now all dependent on computer technology for their very operations. 213-215) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. and also to terrorists and hostile foreign nations. medium and small powers. on the systemic level. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. which can be used in tandem with cyber and communications warfare against Washington. China purchases over 400. n122 In 2008. who are bent on attacking U. such as electrical power. “Economic Integration.S. Goldsmith and Brauer. where in 2004 Hu Jintao visited and confirmed that most of the technology housed there. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Feaver. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent states. interests. In the unlikely event of hostile engagement with the United States. n123 Moreover.-Sino relations. 1999). FBI. Economic decline causes global war Royal 10 (Jedediah. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major. a greater American presence on the island would be needed to fully understand the scope of this rather disturbing operation. who seek new ways to obtain sensitive government or proprietary information. Alternatively. Copeland's (1996. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one preeminent leader to the next. The same basic types of cyber attacks that therefore have become attractive to criminals are also attractive to foreign intelligence services . First. Ed. Federal News Service. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. which begs the question: what is China getting in return for all this assistance? If China is cooperating with Cuban intelligence to spy on the United States. China has a huge presence at Lourdes. if successful. it is also a national security problem. Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed to not only defer for ten years some of Cuba's debt payments. came from China. Department of Defense.and by that I mean those services that are vital to our economy and to our national security. dyadic and national levels. transportation and government operations -. on a dyadic level. China is Cuba's second-largest trading partner with $ 2. Second. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U. China has an incentive to develop technological capabilities in Cuba. a former Soviet espionage base just outside of Havana. including almost all of the computers. n121 In fact. Economics of War and Peace: Economic. but also to invest $ 80 million in the island's health industry. 2/29. Legal and Political Perspectives. could deny service on a very broad scale. Congressional Testimony to the Subcommittee on Crime in the House and the Senate Subcommittee on Criminal Justice Oversight.000 tons of Cuban sugar. 1995). Research in this vein has been considered at systemic. as long as Taiwan is a [*225] thorny issue for U. not ideological. the only thing standing between Beijing's re-appropriation of Taipei is Washington. on a visit to Cuba. n125 But China's leadership is pragmatic. p. Separately. China will have a stake in Cuba. As such. Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”. Cyber-attack would destroys the US economy Vatis.(7B) China's Strategic Interest in Cuba China's presence in Cuba is rather significant: after Venezuela. n124 Another former Soviet base in Bejucal may now also house both Cuban and Chinese intelligence analysts. although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. telecommunications. which is Cuba's top export. An increased Chinese presence in Cuba might be a strategic move by Beijing to later leverage their presence on the island for a change in America's Taiwan policy. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour .3 billion worth of goods exchanged.

and thus weak Presidential popularity. Gelpi (1997). sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. However. & Weerapana. and Blomberg. and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other. the ailing economy.of states. 2002. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis [*195] Third. dyadic and national levels. "Diversionary theory" suggests that. Moreover. Hess. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. Aside from the strategic importance of this issue. climate change. recent economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. the former should be pursued with an unprecedented vigor. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. addressing it would also involve correspondingly less effort than those issues. The plan leads to broader cooperation and influence in the region and globally Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. the Obama Administration ignores Latin America at its own peril.S.-Cuba relations is obviously of smaller import than many other issues currently affecting the world (i. proliferation of weapons of mass destruction). Hess. policy toward Cuba as the most glaring symbol of its historic inability to constructively engage the region. particularly during periods of economic downturn. one that has been absent for the last fifty years. addressing these concerns might also prevent more serious problems in the future. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. (Blomberg & Hess. experience a massive migration to Florida. These three reasons combine for a perfect storm: to the extent that a healthy U. crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. However. face a humanitarian crisis. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict. DeRouen (1995). who generally view U. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. Furthermore. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states.e. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government.. the island could plunge into civil war. Although the chances of a post-Castro Cuba becoming a failed state are slim. Wang (1996). or endure a combination of each.S. become a major drug trafficking center.-Cuban relationship would mean a healthier U. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. They write: The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources.4 Third. Latin America's importance to the United States is growing by the day.-Latin America relationship. and cannot be overstated. Miller (1999). If the state were to collapse. In summary.S. which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. which in turn returns the favour. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic. the threat is nevertheless real.S. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. Washington must find a way to cooperate with its neighbors. but could potentially lead to a disproportionately high return by making regional cooperation more likely. the likelihood for conflict increases. n20 In order to confront any of the major world issues facing the United States. 2004). and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states. when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. a new . While the issue of U. if the expectations of future trade decline.S. p.5 This implied connection between integration. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force.

¶ Argentina. 2012 (IAD is a think tank hosting 100 leaders and experts from the US and Latin America. trade. Although the United States and Latin America¶ are often at odds on drug policy. hosted the second international meeting on climate change in Cancún in ¶ 2010.” April. Because of this. more effective¶ approach to the problem. The hemisphere’s institutional¶ architecture is in great flux. Still. the environment.¶ Although US and Latin American interests do not always converge¶ on non-proliferation questions. and other countries of¶ the region in world forums addressing shared interests . south-south connections¶ are crucial. non-proliferation. and security issues.pdf) Many of the issues on the hemispheric agenda carry critical global ¶ dimensions.¶ Latin Americans are taking more active leadership on drug policy in the¶ hemisphere and could become increasingly influential in global discussions ¶ of drug strategies. labor and human rights). such as in the World Trade Organization and the G-20 (Mexico.¶ already has assumed a prominent position on climate change and ¶ is active in global policy debates. . Washington has worked with Brazil ¶ and other Latin American countries to raise the profile In addition to economic and financial matters. The Eight Recommendations found in this proposal are suggestions that the Obama Administration should consider as it moves to reengage Latin America. they align on some related goals . Mexico. Latin America has the¶ opportunity to participate more actively in nonproliferation efforts. they have mutual interests and goals¶ that should allow consultation and collaboration on a new. Brazil could play a pivotal role. In recent years it has become far more active on global ¶ issues of concern to the United States. Mexico¶ The United States is handicapped by its inability to devise a climate¶ change policy.¶ Brazil has the broadest international presence and influence of any Latin¶ American nation.¶ This may position them as a voice in international debates on this topic. In that context.-Cuban policy should embrace not only America's uncanny ability to reinvent itself. and ¶ the Middle East uprisings. Part of America's greatness is its ability to inspire practical solutions in people.¶ Mexico of emerging economies¶ in various international financial agencies. and there is growing need for decisions about¶ priorities and objectives. Any new U. Online: http://www. the United States should seek greater¶ cooperation and consultation with Brazil. The United States and Brazil have ¶ clashed over such issues as Iran’s nuclear program. Brazil and other Latin¶ American nations are assuming enhanced roles on an array of global political. as well as in the leakage—or transfer¶ of nuclear materials—to terrorists.¶ Even as Latin America expands its global reach and presence. drugs. ¶ environmental. “Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America. but also the pragmatism that has made America so great to begin with.thedialogue.¶ The importance of the Amazon basin to worldwide climate concerns¶ gives Brazil and five other South American nations a special role to play. This cooperation and influence is key to solve existential crisis Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report.¶  Many countries in the region give priority to climate change challenges. Brazil organized the first-ever global ¶ environmental meeting in 1992 and. and in efforts to¶ rebuild and provide security for Haiti. including the World Bank ¶ and the International Monetary Fund. and Canada also participate in the G-20).and comprehensive policy toward Cuba can help prevent these nightmare scenarios from materializing. Washington must restore its heavily damaged image and regain its place as the region's trendsetter and leader. For¶ example.e. There is no doubt that America's diminished image in Latin America means that it will face additional difficulty when trying to accomplish its regional goals. it should support coordination on the presumption¶ of shared interests on a critical policy challenge . it is important¶ that the United States and the region increase their attention to reshaping¶ regional institutions to better align them with current realities and ¶ challenges and to make them more effective.. the main proliferation challenges today are found in developing¶ and unstable parts of the world. but they have cooperated when their interests ¶ converged. Resolving America's "Cuba problem" is a low-cost/high-reward strategy that would inject new energy and credibility into America's image. Several for which US and Latin¶ American cooperation could become increasingly important include:¶  As the world’s lone nuclear-weapons-free region.S.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL. this year. will host Rio+20. n21 To address the issues confronting the United States vis-a-vis Latin America (i.

. This is plain from the almost quaint maintenance of a sanctions regime that seeks to isolate Cuba economically and politically but hardly reflects the dramatic changes that have occurred on the island since 1991.9 Should the U. the variability of weather patterns. The Cubans have accumulated experience and training from past energy cooperation projects and exchanges in Cuba. Mexico. economic.S.S. yet this change share of the financial burden of upgrading Cuba’s energy infrastructure will fall to the United States. The Cubans have gained invaluable knowledge and experience through the operation and construction of energy facilities in collaboration with their joint- The United States possesses few options when it comes to balancing the various risks to U.S. even if the United States were to choose to exploit all of its domestic energy resources. and the supporting energy infrastructure in both countries is in need of significant revitalization. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO. The Obama administration has signaled that it wants to reinvigorate inter-American cooperation venture partners on the island. Venezuela. has declined. Now. it may pave the way to establishing much-needed familiarity and confidence across these communities .S. the opportunity to advance relations in the energy arena appears to be ripe. policy to allow investment and assistance in Cuba’s energy sector are a precondition for international entities to make significant investments . The productive capacity of two of the United States’ largest oil suppliers. The critical need to improve the integrity of the U. energy security .S. the price tag is estimated to be in the billions of dollars. universities. Mexico and Venezuela. Brookings Institution book.¶ The United States and Cuba will have a unique opportunity to employ a highly educated and competent cadre of Cuban engineers and technicians to work in critical areas of the energy sector. too. U. dissected. representatives from American companies. The vagaries of the politics in the region. and the United States needs to articulate a new vision of how best to manage international energy interdependence. energy experts on the technical acumen and capability of Cuban energy officials has been overwhelmingly positive . 2010. In public discussions. there is a significant lack of trust and confidence between the United States and Cuba. is in need of significant repair and modernization (its many energy projects notwithstanding). Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha. Cuban energy authorities have made it clear that their preferred energy development scenario includes working closely with the U. oil.S. and discussed across a number of settings where the interested parties are now familiar with and well versed in the agendas and opportunities that exist in this arena.¶ and integration . oil and gas industry and using state-of-the. it would remain dependent on oil imports to meet its existing and future demand. the policy tools available to deal with energy supply disruptions are increasingly inadequate. The assessment from U.S.S. energy independence is not attainable. and may be central to. energy supply requires a much broader. more flexible view on the quest for resources—a view that does not shun a source from a potential strategic partner for purely political reasons.S.S. Treasurer of the American Political Science Association.SCENARIO TWO: HARD POWER: Lifting the embargo is essential to US-Cuba oil cooperation – key to solve independence from Middle East oil Benjamin-Alvadaro 10 – Jonathan Benjamin-Alvadaro. because deterioration of the infrastructure continues and eventually pushes up the cost of renovation and replacement. and geostrategic objectives of U. and the overall dismal state of the global economy create a setting of instability and uncertainty that requires close attention to the national security interests of the United States vis-à-vis energy. PhD. ¶ The energy-security environment for the United States is at a critical juncture. not to mention since 2008. after fifty years of enmity.S. and think tanks have had the opportunity to meet with Cuban energy officials. energy security and satisfying energy demand. Delaying work on many of these projects increases costs. decisionmakers must look dispassionately at potential energy partners in terms of the role they might play in meeting political. and engineering firms to subcontract work to an emerging class of Cuban firms specializing in these areas. government and the Obama administration see fit to shift its policy so as to allow broader participation of American academics and practitioners in the energy field to attend conferences and meet with Cuban energy officials. a movement toward energy cooperation and development with Cuba is consistent with. Florida International University. that objective . The scope and objectives of Cuban energy development schemes have been disseminated. Since 2004. Report for the Cuban Research Institute. directly and indirectly. Anecdotal evidence suggests that these contacts and exchanges have been wildly successful because of the Cubans’ high level of competence and strong work ethic. “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation” Conclusion and Recommendations Undoubtedly. It also stands to reason that the lion’s Changes in U.art U. This will deploy an underused segment of the Cuban workforce. Cuba’s energy infrastructure. and other countries in the region. trade organizations. because U.when Fidel Castro officially stepped aside as Cuba’s president. construction. In particular. and allow U. oil technologies.

S. stands an excellent chance of access to both.currently. but the United States will have to make special provisions that create commercial and trade openings for energy development that serve its broad geostrategic and national security goals. http://oilandglory. Compare it to a country such as China. China might or might not have access to cheap energy feedstocks and to virtual self-sufficiency . and this could alter the global distribution of power.¶ U. which is going to be overwhelmingly dependent on energy imports. and adds storage and transit capabilities while enhancing regional cooperation and integration modalities.S.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-securityzalmay-khalilzad We face this domestic challenge while other major powers are experiencing rapid economic growth. strategic energy policy under a set of shifting political and economic environmental conditions in Cuba and its implications for U. foreign policy for the near and long term. and a resumption of America's gluttonous gasoline appetite.S. an understanding of possible outcomes is important to those crafting future policy and making changes in the policymaking milieu.S. if it can demonstrate that it can serve as a partner (or at a minimum.S.S. But according to Citigroup oil economist Edward Morse (quoted by Crooks). diversifies regional refining capacity. the United States ambassador to Afghanistan.S. technologies needed for oil and gas exploration and production. India. ¶ The stakes are high. Crooks finds Even if the most optimistic hopes are not fulfilled. " U.S. as it has in the case of food and medicine sales to Cuba.implies a large American footprint. and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. we have seen a parade of relatively resource-poor nations carve out significant global economic and geopolitical places for themselves over the decades. Still.nationalreview. but not readily forever. and Brazil have profound political. but still in the Western Hemisphere: " writes. increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another. which would erode millions of barrels of oil a day.S.foreignpolicy."¶ But what does this mean in the big picture? First. energy dependence is a severe handicap for being able to do that. His reply:¶ Superpower status really does depend over time on lots of abilities to deliver public goods for a wide variety of others. cooperation with Cuba in energy just may create an opportunity for the United States to improve its portion of the needed investment capital to undertake this colossal effort. Mexico and a handful of other friendly countries such as Brazil. If U." he one can imagine a future in which the U. America's trade balance would improve considerably -. social. government assistance will constitute a large The longer that work is delayed. These constraints also affect foreign firms seeking to do business in Cuba because of the threat of penalties if any of these firms use technology containing more than 10 percent of proscribed U. November 1. Japan for example imports 98 percent of its oil. not to mention metals. it also means a new day for the U. and economic problems. imports oil only from Canada. Trade and investment in the energy sector in Cuba have been severely constrained by the conditions of the embargo placed on the Cuban regime. crude oil imports account for 44 percent of the U. Because the policies can be considered works-in-progress.since oil is fungible and can be bought freely by anyone with the money. American private investment and U. leadership LeVine 11 Steve LeVine is a writer for Foreign Policy. and logistical resources in Cuba that simultaneously addresses Petrocaribe objectives. downstream.S. the higher the cost to all the investors. trade deficit. If we don’t get our economic house in order. Oil independence strengthens U. To be sure one can do it for a long period of time.S. “Is this group think. “The Economy and National Security.com/posts/2011/11/01/is_this_group_think_or_is_the_us_a bout_to_be_energy_independent?wpisrc=obinsite What could undermine the prognoses is if the result is relatively low oil prices. relations with Venezuela. In modern . So US global leadership is vital to protecting the globe from wars Khalilzad 11 – Zalmay Khalilzad. ¶ This discussion is intended to help distill understanding of U. which will then potentially cut into the returns from such undertakings. demographic.S. their economies are growing faster than ours. This does not mean that the United States has to dismantle the nearly fiftyyear-old embargo against Cuba. The U. as a global superpower :¶ The notion that the solace in the volumes further afield. we risk a new era of multi-polarity. a supporter) of the Petrocaribe energy consortium.” online: http://www. it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge. The United States could provide much-needed additional investment capital in the development of upstream. about to be energy-independent?”.S. Crooks writes. February 8. These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world. was a superpower in the 20th century but won't be in the 21st doesn't hold up so well now. it's hard to write off an economy that has these two pillars of long-term strength. perhaps.S. or is the U.¶ I was left puzzled by that formulation of how the world works -. Even though countries such as China. why would relative American power abruptly reverse course compared with China's simply because one has and the other lacks oil ? I emailed Morse to find out. The U. China imports much of its oil and natural gas. Iraq. 2011. and undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of escalation. 2011. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. is in a much stronger position. The closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify geopolitical competition among major powers . policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow.

Even as cooperative economic ties in the region have grown. leadership . in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers.¶ As rival powers rise. multi-polar systems have been unstable. . long-range stealth aircraft. or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict . Asia in particular is likely to emerge as a zone of great-power competition. and anti-satellite capabilities. the United States is the most significant barrier facing Chinese hegemony and aggression. regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats. hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions. at denying the United States access to the seas around China. Beijing’s economic rise has enabled a dramatic military buildup focused on acquisitions of naval. Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars. Still.history. ultimately. weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the U nited States. and Southeast Asian states. Alternatively. miscalculation . the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U. there would be a heightened possibility of arms races. Under this scenario. China’s expansive territorial claims — and provocative statements and actions following crises in Korea and incidents at sea — have roiled its relations with South Korea. By contrast. Either way. cruise.S. and ballistic missiles. India. China’s strategic modernization is aimed. with their competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers. Japan. Without an American security blanket.¶ American retrenchment could have devastating consequences .

Lennon. the potential backlash against American companies. ership is essential to meet these threats successfully. . and drug trafficking can only be managed through forms of multilateral cooperation that depend on America's ability to persuade other nations. in part because America's image in Turkey was so poor. a fact that even the White House recognizes. accessed 07/10/07 A broad decline in soft power has many practical implications. silencing critics and creating a bandwagon effect among friends. however. partly because few Asian states view the United States as a neutral. “The Decline of American Soft Power. the United States has failed to obtain significant participation from all but a handful of major nations. now more than ever. outlaw actors. With America's image declining in nations like Thailand and Pakistan. U. the transnational nature of the problems the United States faces defies unilateral solutions. however. human trafficking. Whatever response the United States chooses-engagement. These include the drain in foreign talent coming to the United States. in addition to rooting out and destroying individual militant cells. security. a longtime US ally. Iss.. and religious fanatics use the nation's very strengths-its openness. As Charles Krauthammer wrote. or theft of a weapon of mass destruction. Thus.S. it magni. trouble on the far side of the planet. legitimate broker in the talks. During the war itself. Washington has had to allow China to play a central role. disease.fies U. or the threat of force. and the possibility that anti-US sentiment will make it easier for terrorist groups to recruit. Vol. while empowering its enemies. proliferation. war. lead. senior fellow at CSIS. Globalization is erasing borders that once protected the United States. advanced technology. unilaterally if necessary. 284) Why should the United States care that some criticize its policies and others resent its power? Following U. military success in Afghani. More than ever before. it is harder for leaders in these countries to openly embrace counterterrorism cooperation with the United States. US leadership is key to solving the economy."2 Military power remains the foundation of U..” The Battle for Hearts and Minds: edited by Alexander T. Not because they love us. pg.” Current History. Force is not a long-term solution. and WMD threats. so is followership. the White House has been unable to lead a multinational effort to halt Iran's nuclear program. outbreak of disease.S. Joshua Kurlantzick. or elimination-requires the help of others. and instead has had to resort to threatening sanctions at the United Nations or even the possibility of strikes against Iran. can quickly become a plague on the United States' house. successfully applied. . "We made it plain that even if no one followed us. visiting scholar in the Carnegie Endowment’s China Program. Blinken 03 (Antony J. nontraditional security threats such as disease. Not because we have embraced multilateralism.fend vital American interests. with a decline in soft power. In the run-up to the Iraq War. and drug trafficking. 419. so Washington resorts to quiet arm-twisting and blandishments to obtain counterterror concessions. In addition. again in part because of America's negative image in countries ranging from India to Germany In attempts to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons.stan. J. Surprise: others followed. influence. With foreign governments and publics suspicious of American policy. Washington must increasingly resort to the other option Nye discusses-force. to play a major staging role. is tempting. Dec 2005.S. pg. and freedom of movement-against it. Rogue states. Newer. 104.S. “Winning the War of Ideas. concluding that unilateral might makes right. Washington is simply less able to persuade others.Soft Power – General Impacts Soft Power is key to solving competitiveness. the growing attractiveness of China and Europe. The 2002 National security Strategy emphasizes that winning the war on terror requires the United States to lead a battle of ideas against the ideological roots of terrorism. disease. Terrorism itself cannot be defeated by force alone. containment. such as economic disaster. But because we have demonstrated astonishing military power and the will to de. 686. we would go it alone. human trafficking. the Bush administration could not convince Turkey. proquest. Instead. as demonstrated on September 11. terrorism.

All their turns are inevitable . just as China wouldn’t if the roles were reversed. power two reasons. not to mention a rival United States that shows no sign of lapsing into terminal decline despite its current economic travails . allowing Beijing and Washington to divide the region into spheres of influence in much the same way as the United States and the Soviet Union managed a politically bifurcated Europe during the early part of the Cold War. Sooner than it thinks. The Euro-Atlantic world had a long run of global dominance. for the country faces formidable environmental. Nor is it guaranteed to last.the US won’t just give up Layne June 2012 (Chris.¶ At the same time. professor and Robert M. W. irregular/asymmetric threats are inevitable given America’s role in the global order. economic and demographic challenges. Bush School of Government and Public Service. of course. Australia. Advocates of restraint or global withdrawal. resource. Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. Mike. while popular in some segments of academia. The National Interest. but it is coming to an end. However. Graduate Student in the PhD Program in Political Science .US will be more violent and desperate post-decline Dupont June 2012 (Alan. sharing between the United States and China is unlikely to work for no U. would voluntarily relinquish power to China. The problem is that many Americans. Gates Chair in National Security at Texas A & M University’s George H. Beijing may have to confront the prospect of a resurgent Washington determined to reassert its strategic interests. at present. grand strategy will have to change with it. An Asian Security Standoff. particularly among the elites. regardless of its political complexion. have embraced the notion of American exceptionalism with such fervor that they can’t discern the world transformation occurring before their eyes. Pax Americana also is winding down. Orbis. remain on the margins of policy debates in Washington D. Because ‘‘indirect’’ counter-strategies are the rational choice for actors facing a strong state’s power projection. American elites must come to grips with the fact that the West does not enjoy a predestined supremacy in international politics that is locked into the future for an indeterminate period of time.24 . The National Interest. First.International Relations at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. lexis) THE CONSTELLATION of world power is changing. lexis) What of the argument that America should accept the inevitable and share power with China as an equal? Paralleling the G-2 would be an Asia-2. and U. it is a given that the United States will define its interests globally and pursue a strategy that requires capable military forces able to project power around the world. While superficially appealing because it holds out the prospect of a peaceful transition to a new international order. The United States can manage this relative decline effectively over the next couple of decades only if it first acknowledges the fundamental reality of decline . administration.AT: Heg Bad – Hard Power Inevitable Decline makes all their turns worse. This could always change. professor of international security and director of the Institute for International Security and Development at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. First.S.Philadelphia.C. the United States is very likely to remain fully engaged in global affairs. The future is more likely to be shaped by the East. The Global Power Shift from West to East. Second. Spring) It is important to recognize at the outset two key points about United States strategy and the potential costs and benefits for the United States in a changing security environment. China’s new great-power status is hardly untrammeled.Zero Chances of willful US restraint – we’ll inevitably be engaged globally – the only question is effectiveness Shalmon and Horowitz 09 (Dan.S. Even Layne agrees.

its leaders generally define their interests more expansively and seek a greater degree of influence over what is going on around them. At least insofar as the dominant powers are concerned. professor of politics and international affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University. is among the oldest in recorded history. materials and transportation routes. is what brings them into conflict with the established great powers —the so-called status quo states—who are the architects.history proves Friedberg 2011 (July/August. Even when the demands being made of them are less onerous.perception of weakness spurs war. to promulgate their religious or ideological beliefs. Like Japan in the late nineteenth century. As far back as the fifth century BC the great Greek historian Thucydides began his study of the Peloponnesian War with the deceptively simple observation that the war’s deepest. to protect their citizens far from home. with its Shakespearean overtones of youth and age. As a nation’s capabilities grow. have so often been marked by war. or Germany at the turn of the twentieth. As they begin to assert themselves. even cheated. truest cause was “the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta. As was true of Adolf Hitler’s Germany. the nascent SinoAmerican rivalry is not merely the result of misperceptions or mistaken policies. dominant powers (or a coalition of status quo states) have occasionally tried to attack and destroy a competitor before it can grow strong enough to become a threat. The National Interest. But however sincere. when a new. Aaron L.” but China is fast gaining ground. to defend their foreign friends and allies.. lexis) THE UNITED States and the People’s Republic of China are locked in a quiet but increasingly intense struggle for power and influence. Successful policies of appeasement are conceivable in theory but in practice have proven devilishly difficult to implement. The stakes are about as high as they can get. China is. in general. is simply no surprise. and the potential for conflict particularly fraught.AT: Heg Bad . these efforts have almost always ended in failure. to have what they consider to be their rightful say in the affairs of their region and of the wider world. Indeed. then. Throughout history. rising powers want their place in the sun . Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics. . This means that those in ascendance typically attempt not only to secure their borders but also to reach out beyond them. not only in Asia. Sometimes the reason clearly lies in the demands of the rising state.S.Transition  War Transition from US dominance causes conflict. relations between dominant and rising states have been uneasy—and often violent. Recognizing the growing threat to their position.” The fact that the U. This. or too eager to do so.-China relationship is competitive. America is still “number one. principal beneficiaries and main defenders of any existing international system. but around the world. ascending power begins to overtake the previously dominant state. they look for ways to satisfy their demands and ambitions and seek to incorporate them peacefully into the existing international order. Others—hoping to avoid war—have taken the opposite approach: attempting to appease potential challengers . thereby fueling the frustrations and resentments of the rising power. and. ascendant states typically feel impelled to challenge territorial boundaries. This is why periods of transition. rising powers feel constrained. an aggressor may have ambitions that are so extensive as to be impossible for the status quo powers to satisfy without effectively consigning themselves to servitude or committing national suicide. it is driven instead by forces that are deeply rooted in the shifting structure of the international system and in the very different domestic political regimes of the two Pacific powers. vigor and decline. The resulting clash of interests between the two sides has seldom been resolved peacefully . Established powers tend to regard themselves as the defenders of an international order that they helped to create and from which they continue to benefit. by the status quo and struggle against it to take what they think is rightfully theirs. taking steps to ensure access to markets. of course. feeding its ambitions and triggering a spiral of escalating demands. this story line. And in spite of what many earnest and well-intentioned commentators seem to believe. international institutions and hierarchies of prestige that were put in place when they were still relatively weak. But these countries are not just any two great powers: Since the end of the Cold War the United States has been the richest and most powerful nation in the world. by contrast. rising states tend to be troublemakers. the state whose capabilities have been growing most rapidly. the dominant states are often either reluctant to make concessions.

The wealthiest ports of the global economy—from New York to Rotterdam to Shanghai—would become the targets of plunderers and pirates. Houston or Chicago. the writ of the international community is not global at all. For more than two decades.S. unaware of the existence of other civilizations. or do business. one can imagine the world's established powers—the United States. too. say. Islamist extremists' infiltration of the EU would become irreversible. and cruise liners. Meanwhile.Heg Solves War Collapse of US hegemony causes a global power vacuum resulting in nuclear war Ferguson 04 professor of history at New York University's Stern School of Business and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University (Niall. “A World without Power”. as Europe's Muslim enclaves grew. Certainly. it seems. leadership after the Second World War? The United Nations. But what of the growing pretensions to autonomy of the supranational bodies created under U. and the World Trade Organization (formerly the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) each considers itself in some way representative of the “international community. nor an all-embracing Empire of Heaven. As the United States sought to protect itself after a second September 11 devastates. If free flows of information and of means of production empower multinational corporations and nongovernmental organizations (as well as evangelistic religious cults of all denominations). . An economic meltdown in China would plunge the Communist system into crisis. Religious revivals. humanity has entered an era characterized as much by disintegration as integration. and China—retreating into their own regional spheres of influence .AT: Heg Bad . Incipient anarchy. the International Monetary Fund. The defining characteristic of our age is not a shift of power upward to supranational institutions. maybe even believed that they did. terrorists could disrupt the freedom of the seas. but downward. it is the nonstate actors who truly wield global power—including both the monks and the Vikings of our time. in fact. though with some important and troubling differences. and capital—has raised living standards throughout the world. less hospitable for foreigners seeking to work. And that is also true today. These are the Dark Age experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving. The trouble is. visit.” Surely their aspirations to global governance are fundamentally different from the spirit of the Dark Ages? Yet universal claims were also an integral part of the rhetoric of that era. that this Dark Age would be an altogether more dangerous one than the Dark Age of the ninth century. so it is now possible not just to sack a city but to obliterate it. So what is left? Waning empires. was not a global Christendom. The reality. The worst effects of the new Dark Age would be felt on the edges of the waning great powers. increasingly confined to a few Page 5 strategic cities such as Kabul and Pristina. except where countries have shut themselves off from the process through tyranny or civil war. it would inevitably become a less open society. All the empires claimed to rule the world. aircraft carriers. The reversal of globalization— which a new Dark Age would produce—would certainly lead to economic stagnation and even depression. Western investors would lose out and conclude that lower returns at home are preferable to the risks of default abroad. It is. Foreign Policy ) Could an apolar world today produce an era reminiscent of the age of Alfred? It could. By contrast. These groups can operate. increasing trans-Atlantic tensions over the Middle East to the breaking point. In short. now human societies depend not merely on freshwater and the harvest but also on supplies of fossil fuels that are known to be finite. With the end of states' monopoly on the means of violence and the collapse of their control over channels of communication. wherever they choose. of course. the World Bank. from Hamburg to Gaza. the free flow of destructive technology empowers both criminal organizations and terrorist cells. some. globalization—the integration of world markets for commodities. however. unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires. while Western nations frantically concentrated on making their airports secure. For the world is much more populous—roughly 20 times more—so friction between the world's disparate “tribes” is bound to be more frequent. The reality was political fragmentation. labor. With ease. A coming retreat into fortified cities. Technology has upgraded destruction. targeting oil tankers. Europe. Technology has transformed production.

. perhaps ending catastrophically in the Middle East.S. The few remaining solvent airlines would simply suspend services to many cities in these continents. RAND Corporation. On balance. wretchedly poor citizens would seek solace in Evangelical Christianity imported by U. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival. free markets. U. the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. who would wish to leave their privately guarded safe havens to go there? For all these reasons. but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages.2. If the United States retreats from global hegemony — its fragile self-image dented by minor setbacks on the imperial frontier—its critics at home and abroad must not pretend that they are ushering in a new era of multipolar harmony. the prospect of an apolar world should frighten us today a great deal more than it frightened the heirs of Charlemagne. Second. and low-level conflicts. And far more dangerous forces than rival great powers would benefit from such a not-so-new world disorder Lack of hegemony  extinction Khalilzad. the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -.democracy. It would be apolarity—a global vacuum of power. U.S. such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems. Lexis. Be careful what you wish for. In Africa. and the rule of law. The alternative to unipolarity would not be multipolarity at all. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself. In Latin America. enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers. beginning in the Korean peninsula and Kashmir. Rand Corporation 1995 (Zalmay Khalilzad. threats of regional hegemony by renegade states. such as nuclear proliferation.) Under the third option. this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. including a global nuclear exchange. the great plagues of AIDS and malaria would continue their deadly work. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system. or even a return to the good old balance of power.Meanwhile. Spring 1995. religious orders .S. limited nuclear wars could devastate numerous regions. “Losing the Moment?” The Washington Quarterly 18. Finally. First.

The first has been a more peaceful world. The very source of life on Earth. Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against one another.S. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics. spreading democracy helps maintain U. power. Rather. Without U. In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for investment. growing democratization-is directly linked to U. Indeed they do. http://www.( n3) So. a robust monetary regime. liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview. Most of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy. in general.S. And so. Britain or the United States today.html) Nuclear. the global ecosystem. but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood.carnegie. Democratic governments do not ethnically "cleanse" their own populations . U. They are more environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own citizens. power.S. once states are governed democratically. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse. Nov/Dec2006 Issue 86. Hoover Institution. Everything we think of when we consider the current international order--free trade.org//sub/pubs/deadly/diam_rpt. Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened. p32-37) Throughout history. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. During the Cold War. democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United States. Prof of Defense and Strategic Studies @ Missouri State University. Democracy solves extinction Diamond 95 (Larry Diamond. 1995. Second.S. American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned--between Greece and Turkey. Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one another. In addition. and enduring trading partnerships. PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN THE 1990S. American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war. most notably France and West Germany. the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced. December. the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly. chemical and biological weapons continue to proliferate. primacy. p. as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue. open. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests." Consequently. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies. Stanford University.AT: Heg Bad . and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency. more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U. accountability. Democratic countries form more reliable. The experience of this century offers important lessons. peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power -Rome.” National Interest. India and Pakistan. increasing respect for human rights. Today. power behind it... They do not build weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another. South Korea and Japan. particularly war's worst form: great power wars. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists.Heg Solves Democracy Heg promotes democracy Thayer 6 (Bradley A.S. leadership. with its provisions for legality. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. such as in Darfur. appears increasingly endangered. popular sovereignty and openness. it is important to note what those good things are. American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism: Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because. it is because they are more open. As country and western great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it). Israel and Egypt. who organize to protest the destruction of their environments . .S. Indonesia and Australia . “In Defense of Primacy.

Stanford University) December 2009 “Change. poll-wise. Most are starting to see that our relations with Britain. etc. retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy. BC: With what country then — Venezuela. friendship and values are liabilities. whom it will bite or when. Weakness. To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression. Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home". while insidiously There’s an outside shot that North Korea might do something really stupid near the 38th parallel and China will ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan. one more will be really toxic. Hanson: Obama is one bow and one apology away from a circus . for any president to keep scapegoating a prior administration. the communist inroads in Central America. — do you believe his global repositioning will cause the most damage? Dr. Germany. Indeed. Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson.. If he slips once. Hanson: Two considerations: 1) It’s hard (in addition to being shameless). India’s borders with both Pakistan and China will heat up. Missouri State University (Bradley A. Syria. I think we got off the back of the tiger and now no one quite knows pressuring autonomous former republics to get back in line with some sort of new Russian autocratic commonwealth. Bush” card or is that card past its expiration date? Dr. thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half-pledges to defend its interests and allies.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disasterobama/showLastReply Dr. rogue states or rising powers. North Korea. Iran to get the bomb and begin to threaten ever so insidiously its Gulf neighborhood. In other words. the Iranian hostage mess. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom. Italy. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics. it seems to be a losing trope. Washington cannot call a "time out". Iran. 06 – Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. 2) I think he will drop the reset/“Bush did it” throat-clearing soon. but not as part of a deliberate pattern. predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. Ditto the mea culpas. I would expect. however trivial. If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States. Lexis) In contrast. a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. or France are no better under Obama — and probably worse — than during the Bush administration. Disaster. “In Defense of Primacy.AT: Heg Bad – Heg Solves Deterrence Heg collapse emboldens rogues – it signals weakness Thayer. Much of diplomacy rests on public perceptions. We are now in a great waiting game. wishing to redraw the existing landscape — whether China. Americans hate whining and blamegaming. The world can understand a kowtow gaffe to some Saudi royals. after a year. in the next three years.” http://www. Russia. as his polls continue to stay below 50 percent. — are just waiting to see who’s going to be the first to try Obama — and whether Obama really will be as tenuous as they expect.resistnet.” National Interest. the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from Causes global wars that escalate – perception is key Victor Davis Hanson (Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution. Iran. Venezuela will probably cook up some scheme to do a punitive border raid into Colombia to apprise South America that U. as regional hegemons. Whether they are terrorists. etc. and it cannot hide from threats. Pakistan. etc . The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics. BC: Can Obama get any more mileage from his perpetually played “I’m not George W. when we saw the rise of radical Islam. Venezuela. So the apologies and bows don’t go over well here at home. politically speaking. Hanson: I think all three.S. and Russia will continue its energy bullying of Eastern Europe . . history shows that threats must be confronted. November/December. does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat. it will be 1979 redux.

the U. especially in littorals and low-‐altitudes close to enemy territory. Conclusion Change is inevitable. modernize. p. None of this should be cause for chest-‐thumping. In a separate study. If history is any guide. Indeed. economic superiority literally gives the United States “more bang for the buck” – each dollar it spends on the military produces more force than each dollar China spends.S. The best that can be done is to make plans for the future on the basis of present trends. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations.210 There is also reason to doubt the strategic importance of China’s capabilities because the United States may be able to launch effective attacks from positions beyond the reach of Chinese missiles and submarines. military has vulnerabilities. as measured by per capita income. Dissertation found on google scholar) More important.5 percent.S.700 U. say. that the U. But this has always been the case. Yes. In the coming decades. As noted earlier. but its performance in battle against the United States would not necessarily be much better than that of. PhD candidate at the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences at Columbia. technological.” compensating for its technological and organizational inferiority by utilizing asymmetric strategies. 1993-‐2000.. the gap in defense spending likely understates the true military gap because U. China can “pose problems without catching up. relative to the United States. Ibid. however.challengers can’t make up the power differential. or even declining. regardless of the size of their defense budgets. but evidence of American vulnerability is not the same as evidence of American decline. helicopters and aircraft with simple antiaircraft artillery and no early warning radar. and a greater willingness to bear costs.S. some experts believe China’s “anti-area.211 It is certainly true.S. even after controlling for numerous material. efforts to counter them. an independent task force of more than thirty experts recently found “no evidence to support the notion that China will become a peer military competitor of the United States. share of the world conventional arms market surged to 68 percent while China’s share dropped below 1.S. The Unipolar Era: Why American Power Persists and China’s Rise Is Limited. 1993-‐2008 Source: Congressional Research Service. and integrate individual technologies into cohesive military systems. local knowledge. but it is often incremental and nonlinear. social. but a deeply embedded material condition that will persist for the foreseeable future . The PLA may look increasingly respectable on paper.208 In particular. and political factors. this growing economic gap is also a growing military gap. 73.…The military balance today and for the foreseeable future strongly favors the United States and its allies. weak adversaries can impose significant costs. China projected a huge army into Korea and killed tens of thousands of U.‐denial” capabilities are outpacing U.AT: Heg Bad . soldiers. China’s defense industry has also fallen further behind : in 2008. because they lack the economic capacity to maintain.20: Share of World Arms Transfer Agreements.‐2008. not a passing moment in time. China may surge out of its unimpressive condition and close the gap with the United States. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations.209 There are reasons to doubt this claim – the Pentagon is developing sophisticated countermeasures and Chinese writings may purposefully exaggerate PLA capabilities. I found that developing countries systematically fail at warfare. Iraq circa 1991. Or China might continue to rise in place – steadily improving its capabilities in absolute terms while stagnating. 2001. and military lead over China will be an enduring feature of international relations .212 Sixty years ago. From 1961 to 1968 North Vietnamese and Vietcong units brought down 1. and trends point toward continued unipolarity Beckley 2012 (Michael.206 Multivariate regressions suggest that military effectiveness is determined by a country’s level of economic development. . p.S.Its Sustainable Heg is sustainable. And what the trends suggest is that America’s economic.”207 Figure 3. China’s per capita income has declined relative to that of the United States. 71.

few will contest that the United States is in a league of its own when it comes to security affairs. it is clear that the United States is peerless in the security sphere and has strengthened its lead in the last two decades. The 2003 invasion of Iraq is a case in point but there are plenty of other examples. may not like U. Russia. there are also economic advantages associated with this privileged position in the security field. Because of the superiority of American military power. The next section considers hegemonic strategies that can soften opposition. The United States has already moved beyond the absolute threshold. A Neorealist Synthesis. primacy appear not to be worried about it. Still. the absence of balancing against the United States today appears less puzzling. the country with the second largest share today. or even Brazil and Pakistan. Ideally. the absolute security threshold should not pose the same problem because of the logical limits in determining it. and Syria. and is able to reap economic benefits as a result of its hegemonic position. the Soviet Union was the closest rival in 1988. 64 The extraordinarily wide gap in capabilities created by the fall of the Soviet Union left other states with little choice but to acquiesce.1. but the outcome was not planned.maintaining the power gap key to prevent challengers Fiammenghi 2011 (Davide. 61 Levy and Thompson raise the important question of why other states failed to balance against the United States when it was a rising power but not yet a hegemon. No balancing – US lead is insurmountable and is growing Carla Norrlof (an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto) 2010 “America’s Global Advantage US Hegemony and International Cooperation” p. It may be an exaggeration to suggest that the United States became a hegemon by accident.AT: Heg Bad – No Counter Balancing No counterbalancing. then the unipolar power would need more than 50 percent of the capabilities in the great power system to stave off a counterpoise. the Soviet Union maintained a rough balance with the United States. The increased its share of world military spending in the last twenty years. on the other hand. accounting for 18 percent of the world total. Spring. other countries benefiting from U. This is the claim that is likely to be the most carefully scrutinized. the absolute threshold should represent 50 percent of the capabilities in the system. . But what about the economic realm? The real test is whether the United States still towers over other countries economically. This is the figure William Thompson suggests in describing a near-unipolar system. The European Union. Iran. 65 Meanwhile. but they lack the capabilities to challenge it. 62 Part of the answer lies in the United States' unusual path to primacy. Counting coalitions as potential balancers. primacy. History at the University of Bologna. Without even throwing the technological sophistication of American weaponry (or the collective action problems that many states confront when deciding to act in the national interest) into the balance. costless activity assumed in some balance-of-power theories. because at this level the sum of all the forces opposing the aspiring hegemon is insufficient to successfully balance it. The Security Curve and the Structure of International Politics. the United States is by far the largest military spender and has actually United States’ lead over its nearest competitor is actually stronger in the security arena than it was in 1988 . primacy resulted from the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union. and other states’ dependence on it for effective action. whereas China. the United States faces very few constraints in the security arena . 19 As illustrated in table 2. . it is useful to consider William Wohlforth's admonition: "If balancing were the frictionless.S. 63 U. postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Politics. Countries such as China. Moreover. the euro area still accounts for a lower share today than did the Soviet Union in 1988. International Security. lexis) In principle. 60 In this light. . But the European Union’s share does not amount to even half of the United States’ share of the world total. making balancing futile. But such expectations miss the fact that alliance politics always impose costs. Institutions. As I will also show in chapter 6. only accounts for 5 percent of the world total. accounts for a larger share than did the Soviet Union in 1988 .bandwagoning is more likely.S." 59 It is therefore reasonable to assume that the absolute security threshold is around 45 percent of the military capabilities in the system.S. For decades. . Although some question the utility of armed force.

Kurlantzick 07 (Joshua.AT: Heg Bad – Link Turn Low US soft power leads to an increase in unilateralism. America's declining popularity decreases Washington's soft power. Even without China on the scene. the prospect of relying on military force to protect US national interests will increase. One recent bipartisan report on American diplomacy concluded as much. 194) This unpopularity matters."34 . warning that if the "downward spiral [in diplomacy] is not reversed. Charm Offensive. pg. and potentially makes the United States more likely to resort to force rather than persuasion to meet American objectives. fellow at the USC School of Public Diplomacy and the Pacific Council on International Policy and previous foreign editor at The New Republic.

realized through a division of labor and dispersion of resources that serve as a hedge against natural disaster and market disruptions. but the cost will necessarily be spread through a number of sources that are predominately American because of strategic interests.pdf) Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face of a continuing opposition by the United States to anything resembling what can be construed as “good news” for the Castro regime? Obviously.S. because up until this point it hasn’t cost the United States much if anything. First. will play important roles in the funding of the effort to revitalize the Cuban energy sector. inasmuch as American corporations.AT: Not Enough Oil US-Cuban joint oil production is the critical key to US oil selfsufficiency---there are massive amounts of offshore oil waiting to be tapped Benjamin-Alvadaro 6 (Jonathan. and international financial institutions. technology transfer and information sharing between these neighboring states but it possibly enhances the energy security of both states. to improving the nation’s energy infrastructure.¶ The overview of the Cuban energy developments clearly and unambiguously reveals that the Castro regime has every intention of continuing to promote. The current policy continues to clearly place at the forefront the sanctity and utility of a comprehensive economic and political embargo in the hopes that it helps to foment a change in regime and a peaceful transition to a democratic system of governance and a complimentary market economy. Florida International University. is the possibility of normalization of trade relations with the United States. Report for the Cuban Research Institute. This is important not only because it will allow direct foreign investment. Treasurer of the American Political Science Association. As energy security concerns continue to percolate up to an increasingly important status in the realm of national security objectives we may begin to see the erosion of the hard position against the Cuban regime regardless of its leadership. Cuba may indeed realize a bonanza from the offshore tracts that will allow it to possibly address its many energy challenges. Cuban officials are not averse and perhaps would prefer that the U. It has significantly increased its international cooperation in the energy sector and continues to enhance its efforts to ensure energy security in these most uncertain of times. is a major contributor.” http://cri. ensuring a stable energy future. But it stands to reason that no matter how successful these efforts are. and hence.edu/research/commissionedreports/oil-cuba-alvarado. Two factors may alter this present situation. Moreover. Ultimately. Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha.fiu. of which the U. U. proximity and affinity. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO. and no less significant. be its major partner in this effort owing to the fact that most if not all of .S. from increasing oil production and refining capacity. they will come up short. design and implement energy development policies that will benefit Cuba for generations to come. the region. Cuba is sparing no effort by instituting bottom-up and top-down policy initiatives to meet this challenge. the task still falls to the Cuban government. and only after normalization. PhD.S. “The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special. Second. all states could derive benefit from the public information campaigns to promote energy efficiency and conservation presently being promoted in Cuba in the face of diminishing energy stocks and uncertain global markets. government agencies. It suffices to say that the requisite investment and assistance will have a distinct American tinge to it.

trust and cooperation in this critical issue area across the region. ¶ Finally. For this reason alone. it increases the long-term cost of the effort. in large part because of the American economic embargo. . This should serve as an obvious point of entry into cooperation with the Cuban government and perhaps can serve as a catalyst for promoting confidence. oil and gas comes from the United States. the American role in assisting Cuba in this effort will be significant and every day that the task is put off. absent the type of infrastructural investment that is available to most developing states. It is remarkable that the Cuban energy sector is as vibrant as it presently is.the cutting-edge technology in energy. the cost is significant and it stands to reason that the longer one waits to address the challenge at hand the higher the cost of modernizing the energy sector .

Gulf of Mexico. and reports indicate that Cuba is taking safety seriously. Former Director. (1991) hypothesized that the biological . Cuba has at least as much incentive to ensure safe-drilling practices as does the United States.AT: Environment Turn Cuba won’t spill---they’ll be safe and U. which is not abnormal for an oil company. November 29.31 Among other Cuban lease holders. Petrobras and Statoil have extensive offshore experience . J. PdVSA does not.com/rpts/R41522_20101129.. 2010.S." and that "they are very knowledgeable of international industry practices and have incorporated many of these principles into their safety and regulatory planning and requirements. Sullivan.S. technology transfer are overblown. and PetroVietnam also have offshore experience. foreign sources have provided supplemental alternatives.30 Repsol has significant offshore experience. “Cuba’s Offshore Oil Development: Background and U.S. Maryland. "[t]he Cuban oil industry has put a lot of research. but its offshore project appears the furthest from seeing drilling activity among existing licenses. while the economic embargo of Cuba restricts American technology from being utilized.pdf It is difficult to assess the likelihood of a spill . which may allow for adaptation to climate change.cfm) There is evidence that marine organisms and ecosystems are resilient to environmental change. Scarabeo-9 is built to Norwegian standards. 12 Sustainable Dev. PhD.org/projects/marine.pewclimate. It has had issues with oil spills. ONGC. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems and Global Climate Change. said. http://www. Policy Considerations. Oceans are resilient Kennedy 2 . Gulf of Mexico.D. allowing them to respond quickly to rapid environmental change and thus rendering them ecologically adaptable . Hofstra University School of Law.” Sustainable Development Law & Policy. study and thought into what will be required to safely drill.Environmental science prof. p. and are generally seen as accomplished offshore operators . lexis Fears that Cuban offshore drilling poses serious environmental threats because of the proximity to the United States and the prohibition on U.” online: http://assets. President of the Houston-based International Association of Drilling Contractors. Steele components of marine systems are tightly coupled to physical factors.S. Fall 2011. n64 Lee Hunt. Cooperative Oxford Laboratory. According to Saipem. “IN THIS ISSUE: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICT: CUBAN OFFSHORE DRILLING: PREPARATION AND PREVENTION WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE UNITED STATES' EMBARGO. Some species also have wide genetic variability throughout their range. Petronas. Specialist in Energy Policy at the Congressional Research Service. (Victor." n65 Thus. & Pol'y 37. including projects in the U. Specialist in Latin American Affairs at the Congressional Research Service.opencrs. and Mark P. L. involvement isn’t key Richard Sadowski 11. including projects in the U.S. n66 Companies investing in Cuba have extensive offshore experience---no risk of spills Nerurkar & Sullivan 10 – Neelesh Nerurkar. including extra equipment to shut off blown-out wells beyond what is required in the United States.

Marine life is resilient Dulvy 3 – Professor of Marine Science and Technology. Matsuda et al. They argue that percent decline criteria are too conservative compared to the high natural variability of fish populations . but many marine resource biologists feel that for marine fishes 'one size does not fit all' (see Hutchings 2001a). . Musick 1999. while declines of 50 and 80% led to classifications of 'endangered' and 'critically endangered'. Hutchings 2001a). as one example. 2000. (2000) cite the six-fold variation of the Pacific sardine population (Sardinopssagax. respectively. For the (1996) IUCN list. a decline of 20% within 10 years or three generations (whichever is longer) triggered a classification of 'vulnerable'. Clupeidae) over the past two millennia to suggest that rapid declines and increases of up to 10-fold are relatively common in exploited fish stocks. Clupeidae) and a nine-fold variation in northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax. These criteria were designed to be applied to all animal and plant taxa. however. 2002). Powles et al. be borne in mind that the variation of exploited populations must be higher than unexploited populations because recruitment fluctuations increasingly drive population fluctuations when there are few adults (Pauly et al. Extinction vulnerability in marine populations.1) Marine fish populations are more variable and resilient than terrestrial populations Great natural variability in population size is sometimes invoked to argue that IUCN Red List criteria. It should. are too conservative for marine fishes (Hudson and Mace1996. Powles et al. Newcastle (Nicholas.1997. Fish and Fisheries 4.

AT: HEALTH CARE DA .

The foreigners-only facilities do a big business in what you might call vanity treatments: Botox. Hospitals and clinics are crumbling. these people were called the “nomenklatura. In the Soviet Union. like the one for medical tourists. and typhoid fever. there is excellent health care on Cuba — just not for ordinary Cubans. they must bring their own bedsheets. food. and breast implants. If they do have to go to the hospital. American doctors make sure to take as much equipment and as many supplies as they can carry. And dengue. you can call a Cuban with a car privileged.” For example.) So deplorable is the state of health care in Cuba that old-fashioned diseases are back with a vengeance. And an antibiotic will fetch a fortune on the black market. Testimony and documentation on the subject are vast. These include tuberculosis. liposuction. the military. whatever home is. NOT UNIQUE . People speak of “tourism apartheid. another fever. an exiled doctor named Dessy Mendoza Rivero — a former political prisoner and a spectacularly brave man — wrote a book called ¡Dengue! La Epidemia Secreta de Fidel Castro. separate beaches. Conditions are so unsanitary. Cubans were justifiably proud of their health-care system. too. A doctor in exile told the Miami Herald that. The second health-care system is for Cuban elites — the Party. Measles jabs have been near-universal for more than 20 years. One told the Associated Press. (Of course. in 2003. is a particular menace. Though the state still trains armies of doctors. that there are many separate. separate restaurants — separate everything. And the facilities in which they are treated are First World: clean.economist. well supplied. And the chief of medical services for the whole of the Cuban military had to rent out his car as a taxi on weekends. As you can well imagine. This is known as “medical tourism. Jaime Suchlicki of the University of Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies explains that there is not just one system. even sophisticated medications are plentiful and cheap. Life- expectancy matches that of Americans. In Sicko. the one that ordinary people must use — and it is wretched. In many hospitals patients must provide their own sheets.” said the nurse. “Everyone tries to survive. is top-notch.” And their system. or even two: There are three. soap. or about 25 dollars. Even if they have passed their expiry date. light bulbs — even toilet paper. food and dressings. state-of-the-art. Infant mortality ties with Canada’s as the lowest in the Americas. Then there is the real Cuban system. It’s like operating with knives and spoons. or segregated. on errands of mercy. If you have any pills in your purse. official artists and writers.Cuban health care is struggling – the economy and the embargo The Economist 7/14/2012 “Cuban Health Care: Under Investigation” http://www. but they have nothing to work with. putting Cuba ahead of many rich countries. Dr. patients may be better off at home.org/cuba/health-myth. a third of these are deployed overseas in “soft-power” missions. and so on.htm To be sure. facilities on Cuba. Neglect of infrastructure means that almost 10% of the population lacks . leprosy. there are separate hotels. Indeed. “I haven’t seen aspirin in a Cuban store here for more than a year. The first is for foreigners who come to Cuba specifically for medical care. whatever he does with it. When they travel to the island. which provides oxygen to the regime. towels.” The equipment that doctors have to work with is either antiquated or nonexistent. A nurse spoke to Isabel Vincent of Canada’s National Post. this causes widespread resentment in the general population. I’ll take them. who are eight times richer. “We have nothing. he earned what most doctors did: 575 pesos a month. And basic medications are scarce.com/node/21558613 Until recently. Remember. Doctors have been known to reuse latex gloves — there is no choice. finding an aspirin can be a chore. “The [Cuban] doctors are pretty well trained.Health Care DA – 2AC NO IMPACT – Cuban Health care cannot solve disease National Review 7/30/2007 “The Myth of Cuban Health Care” http://www.” he explained.” The tourists pay in hard currency. He had to sell pork out of his home to get by. But Cuba’s crumbling economy has put this system under stress. In the real Cuba. Pharmacies are generally illstocked.” And doctors are not necessarily privileged citizens in Cuba.latinamericanstudies.

reported this week. mostly in Venezuela but also in Africa. 37. embargo. buying from third parties. On a weekday morning in a village in the inappropriately named municipality of La Salud ("health").000 Latin Americans to study medicine--all part of its obsessive search for international prestige. a patient. an American think-tank.xinhuanet.000 Cuban doctors and other health workers were working in 77 countries around the world. embargo” http://news. Hospital patients sometimes have to bring their own sheets. the Caribbean and Central America. In 2010. representing a significant impact on the tiny Caribbean nation. The Cuban government also offers scholarships to 20. If the health service is to thrive again. but now earns $40 a month in an improvised craft shop in Havana. "It provides us free medicine across the country. sometimes we do not have all the raw materials and tools to solve certain problems immediately. is financially strained by the embargo. A woman who gave her name as Grisel says she worked as a family doctor for just $23 a month.Health care declining – supplies & staff The Economist 3/24/2012 “The deal's off." The embargo has caused Cuba a loss of more than 200 million dollars in the medical sector alone by 2011. currently restricted to farming. the president. The public Institute of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery. "We must find alternatives that sometimes include purchasing from distant markets. this correspondent came across an elderly woman who had hurt her arm and was whimpering with pain. Cuban hospitals suffer restrictions in acquiring imported medical consumables and medicine.Cuban medical authorities said on Tuesday a 50-year trade embargo imposed by the United States has severely undermined the country's healthcare system. As a doctor "I faced a choice of buying shoes or eating." LINK TURN . Secondary-school enrolment is below its 1989 peak. advanced medical technology and latest scientific information. Inequality” page proquest And now health services and education are becoming harder to access and getting worse . 27 (Xinhua) -. says Julia Sweig of the Council on Foreign Relations. who this month visited China and Vietnam. Raúl Castro. He added some equipments were simply unattainable.access to clean drinking water." . adding "due to the U. The next step.S. maternal mortality has risen. will be to let transport and other service workers form cooperatives. mammograms and cancer therapy is hard to replace. officials said. which means higher prices for these products. which is highly expensive around the world. Many drugs are in short supply. Lorenzo Llerena." said Director of the institute Dr. Nov. told Xinhua that Cuba had made a great effort for the benefit of all its citizens. There are reports of doctors starting to demand payment. A pair of children's shoes costs $13. "because they are manufactured in the United States. south of the capital. She has two small children. having found no doctors in attendance at two health clinics. The American embargo against the island does not help: equipment for radiology. NOT UNIQUE . Although infant mortality has continued to fall. is trying to revive the economy by cautiously transferring chunks of it into private hands.S.com/english/health/2012-11/28/c_132004531. this sort of economic surgery will need to speed up.htm HAVANA.Embargo restricts Cuba from access to necessary medicines and tech Xinhua News 11/28/2012 “Cuban healthcare weakended by U." he said. There is a surfeit of humanities graduates and a shortage of agronomists and engineers. John Rhodes. But the main reason for the shortage of medical staff is low salaries. where thousands of people receive free medical care every year from international specialists. according to official figures.

pdf The negative impact of the US embargo on the Cuban health care system and on the right to health of Cubans during the 1990s has been documented in a 1997 report by the American Association for World Health (AAWH). Based on a fact-finding mission to Cuba.” 46 . embargo of food and the de facto embargo on medical supplies has wreaked havoc with the island's model primary health care system.LINK TURN . the U. the AAWH identified that the embargo contributed particularly to malnutrition affecting especially women and children.S.Embargo devastates health care system – supplies & lack of information exchange Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www. lack of access to medicines and medical supplies. and limited the exchange of medical and scientific information due to travel restrictions and currency regulations. poor water quality.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng.45 The 300-page document is still the most comprehensive study on the issue. The AAWH found that “a humanitarian catastrophe has been averted only because the Cuban government has maintained a high level of budgetary support for a health care system designed to deliver primary and preventive health care to all of its citizens… Even so.amnestyusa.

uk/issue9/hanna/ However. who predict further cuts or significant changes to what has been a pillar of the socialist system implanted after the 1959 revolution. It's part of a wider media campaign that seems geared to discourage frivolous use of medical services. 22 For example. is not immune to cutbacks under Raul Castro's drive for efficiency. Medication and equipment is there and available but only to pay for in American dollars.Health Care DA – N/U Ext Health care system is crumbling – budget cuts Associated Press 8/25/2012 “Cuba Health Care: Budget Cuts Threaten Sector” Huffington Post http://www. Pharmacies are often very poorly stocked and rationing of supplies is minimal. Cubans lack resources for necessary medicine and equipment Global Politics 2007 “The Challenges of Health Care in Cuba” http://www. Every year Cuba exports huge amounts of medical aid. "My guess is that there's some kind of policy statement to follow. Patients often bring their own bed sheets.global- politics. 13 There are claims that hospitals are often in poor conditions and doctors have to bring in their own supplies and equipment to allow them to treat their patients. not much by outside standards. but quite a bit for Cuba. and it became clear this month that Castro is looking for more ways to save when the newspaper voice of the Communist Party. posters in clinics and ads on state TV is the same: "Your health care is free. it seems very little of this actually remains in Cuba. which spends $190 million a year paying for its citizens' medical bills. It's not a luxury service though. 10 Despite the production of medical supplies and technology . published daily details for two weeks on how much the government spends on everything from anesthetics and acupuncture to orthodontics and organ transplants. to explain or blunt fears of a drop-off in care and to remind Cubans to be grateful that health care is still free despite persistent economic woes. long considered a birthright by its citizens and trumpeted as one of the communist government's great successes. 14 Cuba’s dual economy has a lot to do with why such disparity exists. mostly to other Latin American countries for purely financial returns.huffingtonpost." said Phil Peters. of which the poor and middle classes of Cuba are very unlikely to have. $4. but how much does it cost?" The answer is. Healthcare may be free and available for all Cuban citizens but medication is not. food and water for hospital stays.html HAVANA -. 23 The ‘pesos pharmacies’ and local state hospitals are drastically under-stocked and thus access for the poor to needed medication is minimal.827 for a heart transplant. Granma.14 for each X-ray and $6. the government spends $2 each time a Cuban visits a family doctor. despite the service being free. Venezuela provides much-needed oil to Cuba and in exchange receives Cuban doctors and medical supplies. because that's been the pattern. Based on the official exchange rate. But it's also raising the eyebrows of outside analysts.Cuba's system of free medical care. electric fans. . The health sector has already endured millions of dollars in budget cuts and tens of thousands of layoffs. Scarcities now are common and sanitary conditions fall short of the ideal in decaying facilities where paint peels from the walls.com/2012/08/27/cuba-healthcare_n_1832955. challenges remain." The theme of the Granma pieces. a longtime Cuba observer at the Lexington Institute think tank.co. "Very often the media has been a leading indicator of where the economic reforms are going.

trade embargo on Cuba is endangering the health of millions by limiting Cubans' access to medicines and medical technology. She told CNN. hospitals and day care centers is contributing to a high prevalence of iron deficiency anemia. she said.” Embargo prevents access to tech and medicine CNN 9/02/2009 “Report: U.S. Cuban and global health communities. so many of their facilities are very basic. Amnesty also called on President Obama to not renew the Trading with the Enemy Act.S. a non-profit organization that encourages cooperation among U.S. England (CNN) -. human rights group Amnesty International alleged Wednesday.health/ LONDON.pdf The provision of health care has also suffered from the limitations and restrictions imposed by the embargo on the procurement of basic and specialized medical equipment and chemical components needed for the production of generic medicines. which have been in place since 1962. "Doctors in Cuba always worry that an international supplier will be bought out by a U. company. An Amnesty report examines the effects of the sanctions.cnn. it would send a clear message that the U. leaving medical equipment without replacement parts and patients without continuity of medications. In 2007. "The president believes it makes strategic sense to hold on to some inducements we can use in dealing with a Cuban government if it shows any signs of seeking a normalized relationship with us and begins to respect basic human rights. The Act has been reviewed by U. citizens from visiting relatives in Cuba. sanctions put Cubans' health at risk” http://edition. embargo immoral and said it should be lifted.S." The Amnesty report also cites United Nations data that says Cuba's inability to import nutritional products for schools. I would say the people most affected have been cancer and HIV-AIDS patients..org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. the condition affected 37. “This prevents them from having access to the latest pharmaceutical and technological advances. Cuba can import these products from other countries.amnestyusa.5 percent of Cuba's children under three years old. "It's preventing millions of Cubans from benefiting from vital medicines and medical equipment essential for their health. Gerardo Ducos.com/index. Gail Reed is international director of MEDICC (Medical Education Cooperation with Cuba). A U." Reed said. Over the past decades. State Department spokeswoman would not comment on the report because she hadn't read it.cuba.S.S. an Amnesty researcher for the Caribbean region. but there are major shipping costs and logistical challenges to contend with.S. "In general.” Berres said." Khan said. and sending them remittances. Amnesty said that while not renewing the Act would not in itself end the embargo against Cuba. the conditions governing the process make their export virtually impossible.AT: Health Care DA – Link Turn Ext Embargo prevents access to necessary tech SurfKY News 4/15/2013 “UK Delegation Visits Cuba.S.com/2009/HEALTH/09/01/amnesty. Learns About its Healthcare System” http://surfky. which is due for renewal on September 14.-owned company abroad.S. told CNN that although medicines and medical supplies can be licensed for export to Cuba. Embargo restricts health care – equipment & chemicals Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.S. according to UNICEF.php/communities/303-lexington-fayette-county/29814-ukdelegation-visits-cuba-learns-about-its-healthcare-system “Many of the problems with Cuba’s health care system are associated with the American embargo.S. In April this year President Obama lifted restrictions that had prevented U. is adopting a new policy toward Cuba. the embargo has a sweeping effect on Cuban healthcare . The embargo restricts the export of medicines and medical equipment from the U. However. . and from any U. Amnesty International SecretaryGeneral Irene Khan called the U." She also said the embargo affects the way doctors think about the future. presidents on an annual basis since 1978.The U.

amnestyusa. on electricity and other functioning equipment such as X-ray facilities or refrigerators to store vaccines. It has also hindered the renovation of hospitals. Embargo hurts health care – infrastructure Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www. equipment and spare parts. Health and health services depend on functioning water and sanitation infrastructure.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng.pdf The impact of economic sanctions on health and health services is not limited to difficulties in the supply of medicine. The financial burden and commercial barriers have led to shortages or intermittent availability of drugs. medicines.pdf The increase in the costs for purchasing the necessary medicine or medical materials is hampering the implementation of UN development projects and programmes.amnestyusa.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. who face long delays before having access to adequate medicine or treatment.Embargo hurts health care – hampers UN programs Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.64 . clinics and care centres for the elderly. The repercussions of these difficulties are ultimately felt by the intended beneficiaries of these programmes.

at least. humanitarian assistance is the very type of soft power engagement that might help thaw relations between Washington and Havana.[*215] Doesn’t solve hard power – lifting the embargo is key to cooperating on oil drilling – that’s the key internal link to hard power . On the one hand. since so much of America's humanitarian soft power resources lie outside of government in the private sector and civil society. as applied to humanitarian organizations.S. n79 any increase in humanitarian assistance might also require a proportional loosening of the trade and travel restrictions . However. which aims to isolate and destabilize the regime through economic sanctions. The perception in Cuba is that the United States is responsible for the chronic humanitarian crisis that has afflicted the island since 1989. n78 While any increase in humanitarian assistance will no doubt be viewed as a positive step in the right direction.AT: LIFT TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS CP Removing travel restrictions alone is insufficient to solve the soft power advantave advantage – removing the whole embargo is key Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. on the other hand. policy.S. it will still have to be reconciled with an enduring hostile relationship between both countries . State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The only problem with offering more humanitarian aid to Cuba is that it seemingly contradicts current U.

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