Plan

The United States federal government should end its embargo on
Cuba

LEADERSHIP ADV

LEADERSHIP ADV – 1AC
SCENARIO ONE: SOFT POWER:
Anti-Americanism is growing in Latin America – extending an olive
branch to Cuba is necessary to re-establish our regional soft power
Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy

Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis
Anti-Americanism has become the political chant de jour for leaders seeking longterm as well as short-term gains in Latin American elections. In Venezuela, the
anti-American rhetoric spewed by Hugo Chavez masks his otherwise autocratic
tendencies, while countries like Bolivia and Ecuador tilt further away from
Washington, both rhetorically and substantively. The former expelled the U.S. Ambassador in October 2008, and the latter
has refused to renew Washington's lease on an airbase traditionally used for counter-narcotics missions. The systemic
neglect for eight years during the Bush Administration meant that political capital
was never seriously spent dealing with issues affecting the region . Because of this, President
Bush was unable to get much headway with his proposal to reform immigration, and his free trade agreement with Colombia
encountered significant opposition in Congress. Recent examples of U.S. unilateralism, disregard

for
international law and norms, and a growing financial crisis, have all been seized
by a new generation of populist Latin American leaders who stoke anti-American
sentiment.
The region, however, is absolutely critical to our national interest and security. Over
thirty percent of our oil comes from Latin America - more than the U.S. imports
from the Middle East. Additionally, over half of the foreign-born population in the United States is Latin American,
meaning that a significant portion of American society is intrinsically tied to the region. n1 These immigrants, as well as their sons
and daughters, have already begun to take their place amongst America's social, cultural, and political elite.
Just south of America's borders, a deepening polarization is spreading throughout

the entire region. In the last few years ideological allies in Bolivia, Ecuador, and
Venezuela have written and approved new constitutions that have consolidated the
power of the executive, while extending - or in Venezuela's case eliminating presidential term limits. In Venezuela the polarization has been drawn along economic lines, whereby Chavez's base
of support continues to be poor Venezuelans. In Bolivia the polarization has been drawn along racial lines: the preamble to the new
Bolivian constitution, approved in January 2009, makes reference to the "disastrous colonial times," a moment in history that
Bolivians of Andean-descent particularly lament. Those regions in Bolivia with the most people of European or mixed descent have
consistently voted for increased provincial autonomy and against the constitutional changes proposed by President Morales.
Perhaps due to its sweeping changes, the new Constitution was rejected by four of Bolivia's nine provinces. n2 Like Bolivia, Latin
America is still searching for its identity.
[*191] Traditionally the U.S. has projected its influence by using varying

combinations of hard and soft power. It has been a long time since the U nited States
last sponsored or supported military action in Latin America, and although highly contextdependent, it is very likely that Latin American citizens and their governments would view any
overt display of American hard power in the region negatively. n3 One can only imagine the
fodder an American military excursion into Latin America would provide for a leader like Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, or Evo Morales
of Bolivia. Soft power, on the other hand, can win over people and governments without

resorting to coercion, but is limited by other factors.
The key to soft power is not simply a strong military, though having one helps, but rather an
enduring sense of legitimacy that can then be projected across the globe to
advance particular policies. The key to this legitimacy is a good image and a
reputation as a responsible actor on the global and regional stage. A good
reputation and image can go a long way toward generating goodwill, which
ultimately will help the U.S. when it tries to sell unpopular ideas and reforms in
the region. n4

President Hu rewarded Costa Rica's new policy by visiting San Jose and signing a free trade agreement in 2010. Washington will have to rely more heavily on diplomatic initiatives that shore up credibility rather than simply economic incentives and disincentives. n6 As a result of its continuing tensions with Havana. and repair America's image. Working with other nations to address these challenges is the best way to shore up legitimacy.S. Cuba. trade between China and Latin America is likely to grow during the next five years. a move heavily courted by Chinese officials.S. cross-cultural educational exchanges. but also win over new allies. both economically and politically. China's interest in Latin America is also based on its increasingly assertive global political agenda. In 2008. and Latin America. Costa Rica dropped its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. US influence in Latin America is key to prevent Chinese crowd in – the impact is cyber war Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. will remain the major powerbroker in the Americas for decades to come." n5 When analyzing ecosystems. n116 After signing a free trade agreement with Chile.S. the U. had to pass the Cuba "litmus test. despite its size and isolation. n115 American disinterest in Latin America has convinced many countries to adopt a "Pacific view. leadership and cooperation. must repair its image by going on a diplomatic offensive and reminding. . and the Obama Administration. that number had increased to $ 102 billion. Given this diminishing economic position. but in 2007. but will increasingly have to make room for a new player. n120 As China's role in Latin America increases. n8 In short.S. not just Latin America's leaders. in regions all around the world. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The absence of a strong American presence over the last eight years has also given China the opportunity to step in as a major player. China quickly displaced the United States as that country's largest export market. The Chinese government has invested a tremendous amount of soft power in Latin America . every country in Latin America is a potential friend. who look to us for "ideas and solutions. America's reputation [*192] in the region has suffered. To that end. or barometers of. with an annual trade growth of 30% since 2001. function as lynchpins for. as has its ability to deal with other countries. will have to pass a Cuba litmus test of its own. the U. Latin American governments that hoped to endear themselves to the U.S. Washington will have to not only strengthen its existing relationships in the region. Many of the problems facing Latin America today cannot be addressed in the absence of U. America must once again be admired if we are going to expect other countries to follow our example. n118 Even despite the current financial crisis. warming relations with Cuba would have a reverberating effect throughout Latin America. earn respect. environmental scientists seek out "keystone species. To be sure. as well as political and economic exchanges. such as bilateral trade agreements . n119 China also timed the release of a new policy paper on Sino-Latin American relations to coincide with President Hu's most recent trip to the region. is a keystone nation in Latin America. China also [*224] recently displaced the U." But now the tables have turned. In 2007. as Brazil's biggest trading partner. n7 For fifty years. where it is now the continent's third largest trading partner. if it wants to repair America's image in the region.In order to effectively employ soft power in Latin America. trade between China and Latin America hovered around $ 13 billion. n117 In 2000.S." whereby China steps in to fill the gap left by America's absence. Although this proposal focuses heavily on Cuba. It charts China's growing relationship with Latin America and promises increased cooperation in scientific and technological research. but particularly in Latin America. and by 2008 total trade was valued at $ 140 billion. the entire system's stability . of the important relationship between the U. but also the Latin American people.S. American clout correspondingly decreases in terms of relative power. despite their small size. having disproportionately dominated Washington's policy toward the region for decades. not lectures." These are organisms that. and would go a long way toward creating goodwill.

(7B) China's Strategic Interest in Cuba China's presence in Cuba is rather significant: after Venezuela. China purchases over 400. and also to terrorists and hostile foreign nations. FBI. Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”.S. Department of Defense. Several notable contributions follow. 1995). interests. 2/29. which is Cuba's top export. including almost all of the computers. China is neurotic about the functional American presence in Taiwan and has made its intentions for the island known to everyone. Alternatively. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent states. China has an incentive to develop technological capabilities in Cuba. dyadic and national levels. n123 Moreover. Cyber-attack would destroys the US economy Vatis. p. came from China. the only thing standing between Beijing's re-appropriation of Taipei is Washington. if successful. telecommunications. it is also a national security problem. “Economic Integration.and by that I mean those services that are vital to our economy and to our national security. First. exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin.S. as well as half its annual output of nickel. although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. where in 2004 Hu Jintao visited and confirmed that most of the technology housed there.3 billion worth of goods exchanged. but also to invest $ 80 million in the island's health industry. Economic decline causes global war Royal 10 (Jedediah. China has a huge presence at Lourdes. on a visit to Cuba. Legal and Political Perspectives. Copeland's (1996. could deny service on a very broad scale. such as electrical power. This is because our nation's critical infrastructures -. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. medium and small powers. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic. not ideological. Federal News Service. n124 Another former Soviet base in Bejucal may now also house both Cuban and Chinese intelligence analysts. as long as Taiwan is a [*225] thorny issue for U. The same basic types of cyber attacks that therefore have become attractive to criminals are also attractive to foreign intelligence services . An increased Chinese presence in Cuba might be a strategic move by Beijing to later leverage their presence on the island for a change in America's Taiwan policy. 1999). Second. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Feaver. who seek new ways to obtain sensitive government or proprietary information. on a dyadic level. And that dependence makes them vulnerable to an attack which . China is Cuba's second-largest trading partner with $ 2.000 tons of Cuban sugar. n122 In 2008. n121 In fact. As such. 213-215) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour . Goldsmith and Brauer. l/n) And this is not just a criminal problem. China will have a stake in Cuba. Ed. Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed to not only defer for ten years some of Cuba's debt payments. 2000 (Michael. In the unlikely event of hostile engagement with the United States.S. Congressional Testimony to the Subcommittee on Crime in the House and the Senate Subcommittee on Criminal Justice Oversight.-Sino relations. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. a former Soviet espionage base just outside of Havana. a greater American presence on the island would be needed to fully understand the scope of this rather disturbing operation. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. Economics of War and Peace: Economic. Separately. who are bent on attacking U. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major. Development of such capabilities may already be happening. n125 But China's leadership is pragmatic. which begs the question: what is China getting in return for all this assistance? If China is cooperating with Cuban intelligence to spy on the United States. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one preeminent leader to the next.are now all dependent on computer technology for their very operations. on the systemic level. which can be used in tandem with cyber and communications warfare against Washington. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U. transportation and government operations -.

of states.S. when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. face a humanitarian crisis.S. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. These three reasons combine for a perfect storm: to the extent that a healthy U.-Latin America relationship. Gelpi (1997). a new . which in turn returns the favour. the ailing economy.5 This implied connection between integration. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict.-Cuba relations is obviously of smaller import than many other issues currently affecting the world (i. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis [*195] Third. Aside from the strategic importance of this issue. DeRouen (1995). In summary. "Diversionary theory" suggests that. Washington must find a way to cooperate with its neighbors. dyadic and national levels. Furthermore. particularly during periods of economic downturn. become a major drug trafficking center.e.-Cuban relationship would mean a healthier U.S. or endure a combination of each.S. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic.S. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. 2004). & Weerapana. crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. n20 In order to confront any of the major world issues facing the United States. Wang (1996).4 Third. Although the chances of a post-Castro Cuba becoming a failed state are slim. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. who generally view U. sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states. proliferation of weapons of mass destruction). as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. but could potentially lead to a disproportionately high return by making regional cooperation more likely. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. one that has been absent for the last fifty years. (Blomberg & Hess. Latin America's importance to the United States is growing by the day. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. While the issue of U. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources. Moreover. the likelihood for conflict increases. experience a massive migration to Florida. Hess. If the state were to collapse. Miller (1999). and cannot be overstated. addressing these concerns might also prevent more serious problems in the future. p.. 2002. They write: The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. the island could plunge into civil war. if the expectations of future trade decline. addressing it would also involve correspondingly less effort than those issues. climate change. the former should be pursued with an unprecedented vigor. and thus weak Presidential popularity. the Obama Administration ignores Latin America at its own peril. and Blomberg. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other. Hess. the threat is nevertheless real. The plan leads to broader cooperation and influence in the region and globally Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. However. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. However. recent economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. policy toward Cuba as the most glaring symbol of its historic inability to constructively engage the region.

¶ The importance of the Amazon basin to worldwide climate concerns¶ gives Brazil and five other South American nations a special role to play. Washington must restore its heavily damaged image and regain its place as the region's trendsetter and leader. and in efforts to¶ rebuild and provide security for Haiti. this year. This cooperation and influence is key to solve existential crisis Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report. Any new U. and there is growing need for decisions about¶ priorities and objectives. Although the United States and Latin America¶ are often at odds on drug policy. Several for which US and Latin¶ American cooperation could become increasingly important include:¶  As the world’s lone nuclear-weapons-free region. “Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America. Latin America has the¶ opportunity to participate more actively in nonproliferation efforts. but they have cooperated when their interests ¶ converged. and security issues. In that context.” April. Mexico. 2012 (IAD is a think tank hosting 100 leaders and experts from the US and Latin America. The Eight Recommendations found in this proposal are suggestions that the Obama Administration should consider as it moves to reengage Latin America. The United States and Brazil have ¶ clashed over such issues as Iran’s nuclear program.thedialogue.¶ Even as Latin America expands its global reach and presence.and comprehensive policy toward Cuba can help prevent these nightmare scenarios from materializing.S. it should support coordination on the presumption¶ of shared interests on a critical policy challenge .¶ Brazil has the broadest international presence and influence of any Latin¶ American nation. Brazil could play a pivotal role.-Cuban policy should embrace not only America's uncanny ability to reinvent itself.¶ This may position them as a voice in international debates on this topic.e.pdf) Many of the issues on the hemispheric agenda carry critical global ¶ dimensions. Resolving America's "Cuba problem" is a low-cost/high-reward strategy that would inject new energy and credibility into America's image. Mexico¶ The United States is handicapped by its inability to devise a climate¶ change policy. Part of America's greatness is its ability to inspire practical solutions in people.. they align on some related goals . south-south connections¶ are crucial. will host Rio+20. In recent years it has become far more active on global ¶ issues of concern to the United States. Brazil organized the first-ever global ¶ environmental meeting in 1992 and.¶ Latin Americans are taking more active leadership on drug policy in the¶ hemisphere and could become increasingly influential in global discussions ¶ of drug strategies. the environment.¶ Mexico of emerging economies¶ in various international financial agencies. trade. Washington has worked with Brazil ¶ and other Latin American countries to raise the profile In addition to economic and financial matters.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL. more effective¶ approach to the problem. the United States should seek greater¶ cooperation and consultation with Brazil. non-proliferation.¶ Argentina. For¶ example. and other countries of¶ the region in world forums addressing shared interests . hosted the second international meeting on climate change in Cancún in ¶ 2010. labor and human rights).¶ already has assumed a prominent position on climate change and ¶ is active in global policy debates. but also the pragmatism that has made America so great to begin with. Brazil and other Latin¶ American nations are assuming enhanced roles on an array of global political. such as in the World Trade Organization and the G-20 (Mexico. and Canada also participate in the G-20). including the World Bank ¶ and the International Monetary Fund. Because of this. drugs.¶ Although US and Latin American interests do not always converge¶ on non-proliferation questions.¶  Many countries in the region give priority to climate change challenges. they have mutual interests and goals¶ that should allow consultation and collaboration on a new. There is no doubt that America's diminished image in Latin America means that it will face additional difficulty when trying to accomplish its regional goals. as well as in the leakage—or transfer¶ of nuclear materials—to terrorists. it is important¶ that the United States and the region increase their attention to reshaping¶ regional institutions to better align them with current realities and ¶ challenges and to make them more effective. and ¶ the Middle East uprisings. Online: http://www. The hemisphere’s institutional¶ architecture is in great flux. the main proliferation challenges today are found in developing¶ and unstable parts of the world. ¶ environmental. n21 To address the issues confronting the United States vis-a-vis Latin America (i. Still. .

9 Should the U.S. It also stands to reason that the lion’s Changes in U. the price tag is estimated to be in the billions of dollars. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO.art U. that objective .S. and discussed across a number of settings where the interested parties are now familiar with and well versed in the agendas and opportunities that exist in this arena. The productive capacity of two of the United States’ largest oil suppliers. 2010. construction. not to mention since 2008.S. energy security . Mexico and Venezuela.S. directly and indirectly. and the United States needs to articulate a new vision of how best to manage international energy interdependence. economic.S. oil and gas industry and using state-of-the. and the supporting energy infrastructure in both countries is in need of significant revitalization. Mexico. too. more flexible view on the quest for resources—a view that does not shun a source from a potential strategic partner for purely political reasons. it would remain dependent on oil imports to meet its existing and future demand.S. yet this change share of the financial burden of upgrading Cuba’s energy infrastructure will fall to the United States. Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha. the variability of weather patterns. there is a significant lack of trust and confidence between the United States and Cuba. Anecdotal evidence suggests that these contacts and exchanges have been wildly successful because of the Cubans’ high level of competence and strong work ethic. . Delaying work on many of these projects increases costs. dissected.¶ The United States and Cuba will have a unique opportunity to employ a highly educated and competent cadre of Cuban engineers and technicians to work in critical areas of the energy sector. The assessment from U.S. Treasurer of the American Political Science Association. the policy tools available to deal with energy supply disruptions are increasingly inadequate. the opportunity to advance relations in the energy arena appears to be ripe. Brookings Institution book. trade organizations. Florida International University. Cuba’s energy infrastructure. energy security and satisfying energy demand. and other countries in the region. government and the Obama administration see fit to shift its policy so as to allow broader participation of American academics and practitioners in the energy field to attend conferences and meet with Cuban energy officials. because U. The Obama administration has signaled that it wants to reinvigorate inter-American cooperation venture partners on the island.S. Now. The Cubans have accumulated experience and training from past energy cooperation projects and exchanges in Cuba. it may pave the way to establishing much-needed familiarity and confidence across these communities . representatives from American companies.¶ and integration . has declined. Report for the Cuban Research Institute. universities. is in need of significant repair and modernization (its many energy projects notwithstanding). and may be central to. In public discussions. The critical need to improve the integrity of the U. and the overall dismal state of the global economy create a setting of instability and uncertainty that requires close attention to the national security interests of the United States vis-à-vis energy. and think tanks have had the opportunity to meet with Cuban energy officials. PhD.S. policy to allow investment and assistance in Cuba’s energy sector are a precondition for international entities to make significant investments . energy independence is not attainable.SCENARIO TWO: HARD POWER: Lifting the embargo is essential to US-Cuba oil cooperation – key to solve independence from Middle East oil Benjamin-Alvadaro 10 – Jonathan Benjamin-Alvadaro. The vagaries of the politics in the region. U. oil technologies. energy experts on the technical acumen and capability of Cuban energy officials has been overwhelmingly positive . In particular. oil. a movement toward energy cooperation and development with Cuba is consistent with. Venezuela. The Cubans have gained invaluable knowledge and experience through the operation and construction of energy facilities in collaboration with their joint- The United States possesses few options when it comes to balancing the various risks to U.S. The scope and objectives of Cuban energy development schemes have been disseminated. energy supply requires a much broader. even if the United States were to choose to exploit all of its domestic energy resources. This is plain from the almost quaint maintenance of a sanctions regime that seeks to isolate Cuba economically and politically but hardly reflects the dramatic changes that have occurred on the island since 1991. “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation” Conclusion and Recommendations Undoubtedly. and allow U. decisionmakers must look dispassionately at potential energy partners in terms of the role they might play in meeting political. and geostrategic objectives of U.when Fidel Castro officially stepped aside as Cuba’s president. Cuban energy authorities have made it clear that their preferred energy development scenario includes working closely with the U. This will deploy an underused segment of the Cuban workforce. and engineering firms to subcontract work to an emerging class of Cuban firms specializing in these areas. after fifty years of enmity. ¶ The energy-security environment for the United States is at a critical juncture.S. Since 2004. because deterioration of the infrastructure continues and eventually pushes up the cost of renovation and replacement.

S. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. it's hard to write off an economy that has these two pillars of long-term strength. relations with Venezuela. " U. an understanding of possible outcomes is important to those crafting future policy and making changes in the policymaking milieu.implies a large American footprint.S."¶ But what does this mean in the big picture? First.S. perhaps.S. China imports much of its oil and natural gas. we risk a new era of multi-polarity. Even though countries such as China. If U. if it can demonstrate that it can serve as a partner (or at a minimum.currently. To be sure one can do it for a long period of time. Compare it to a country such as China. the higher the cost to all the investors. and a resumption of America's gluttonous gasoline appetite. and economic problems." he one can imagine a future in which the U.since oil is fungible and can be bought freely by anyone with the money. crude oil imports account for 44 percent of the U. increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another. or is the U. a supporter) of the Petrocaribe energy consortium. and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. diversifies regional refining capacity. “Is this group think. strategic energy policy under a set of shifting political and economic environmental conditions in Cuba and its implications for U. which will then potentially cut into the returns from such undertakings. The closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify geopolitical competition among major powers .” online: http://www. trade deficit. cooperation with Cuba in energy just may create an opportunity for the United States to improve its portion of the needed investment capital to undertake this colossal effort. In modern . was a superpower in the 20th century but won't be in the 21st doesn't hold up so well now.S. as it has in the case of food and medicine sales to Cuba. So US global leadership is vital to protecting the globe from wars Khalilzad 11 – Zalmay Khalilzad. social. and this could alter the global distribution of power. about to be energy-independent?”. 2011. is in a much stronger position. America's trade balance would improve considerably -. But according to Citigroup oil economist Edward Morse (quoted by Crooks).nationalreview. Because the policies can be considered works-in-progress. and adds storage and transit capabilities while enhancing regional cooperation and integration modalities. foreign policy for the near and long term. technologies needed for oil and gas exploration and production. “The Economy and National Security. ¶ This discussion is intended to help distill understanding of U. Crooks writes. stands an excellent chance of access to both. the United States ambassador to Afghanistan. energy dependence is a severe handicap for being able to do that. imports oil only from Canada. The U. and logistical resources in Cuba that simultaneously addresses Petrocaribe objectives.com/posts/2011/11/01/is_this_group_think_or_is_the_us_a bout_to_be_energy_independent?wpisrc=obinsite What could undermine the prognoses is if the result is relatively low oil prices. Trade and investment in the energy sector in Cuba have been severely constrained by the conditions of the embargo placed on the Cuban regime. Oil independence strengthens U. but not readily forever. If we don’t get our economic house in order.S. demographic. downstream. The U. which is going to be overwhelmingly dependent on energy imports. These constraints also affect foreign firms seeking to do business in Cuba because of the threat of penalties if any of these firms use technology containing more than 10 percent of proscribed U.S. their economies are growing faster than ours. we have seen a parade of relatively resource-poor nations carve out significant global economic and geopolitical places for themselves over the decades. Crooks finds Even if the most optimistic hopes are not fulfilled. but still in the Western Hemisphere: " writes.S. February 8.¶ I was left puzzled by that formulation of how the world works -. American private investment and U. This does not mean that the United States has to dismantle the nearly fiftyyear-old embargo against Cuba. and Brazil have profound political. November 1. His reply:¶ Superpower status really does depend over time on lots of abilities to deliver public goods for a wide variety of others. Still. and undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of escalation. http://oilandglory.¶ U. Iraq. why would relative American power abruptly reverse course compared with China's simply because one has and the other lacks oil ? I emailed Morse to find out. government assistance will constitute a large The longer that work is delayed. ¶ The stakes are high.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-securityzalmay-khalilzad We face this domestic challenge while other major powers are experiencing rapid economic growth. it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge.foreignpolicy. The United States could provide much-needed additional investment capital in the development of upstream.S.S.S.S. but the United States will have to make special provisions that create commercial and trade openings for energy development that serve its broad geostrategic and national security goals. not to mention metals. China might or might not have access to cheap energy feedstocks and to virtual self-sufficiency . leadership LeVine 11 Steve LeVine is a writer for Foreign Policy. it also means a new day for the U. India. as a global superpower :¶ The notion that the solace in the volumes further afield. 2011. policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow.S. which would erode millions of barrels of oil a day. These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world. Japan for example imports 98 percent of its oil. Mexico and a handful of other friendly countries such as Brazil.S.

with their competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers. multi-polar systems have been unstable. in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers. Japan. leadership . Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars. Without an American security blanket. India. or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict . By contrast. China’s expansive territorial claims — and provocative statements and actions following crises in Korea and incidents at sea — have roiled its relations with South Korea. ultimately. Beijing’s economic rise has enabled a dramatic military buildup focused on acquisitions of naval. Even as cooperative economic ties in the region have grown. Alternatively. and Southeast Asian states.¶ American retrenchment could have devastating consequences . Either way.¶ As rival powers rise. Under this scenario. China’s strategic modernization is aimed. long-range stealth aircraft. and ballistic missiles. and anti-satellite capabilities. hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions. Still. weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the U nited States. cruise. at denying the United States access to the seas around China. regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats. . miscalculation . the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U.history. Asia in particular is likely to emerge as a zone of great-power competition. the United States is the most significant barrier facing Chinese hegemony and aggression. there would be a heightened possibility of arms races.S.

stan. Not because we have embraced multilateralism. These include the drain in foreign talent coming to the United States. US leadership is key to solving the economy. unilaterally if necessary. containment.Soft Power – General Impacts Soft Power is key to solving competitiveness.fend vital American interests. Instead. With foreign governments and publics suspicious of American policy.S. But because we have demonstrated astonishing military power and the will to de. we would go it alone. or theft of a weapon of mass destruction. or the threat of force. proliferation. to play a major staging role. Thus. Blinken 03 (Antony J. the potential backlash against American companies. can quickly become a plague on the United States' house. and the possibility that anti-US sentiment will make it easier for terrorist groups to recruit. human trafficking.” The Battle for Hearts and Minds: edited by Alexander T. successfully applied. legitimate broker in the talks. terrorism. disease. Washington must increasingly resort to the other option Nye discusses-force. pg. Iss. and instead has had to resort to threatening sanctions at the United Nations or even the possibility of strikes against Iran. advanced technology. again in part because of America's negative image in countries ranging from India to Germany In attempts to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons. the Bush administration could not convince Turkey. Whatever response the United States chooses-engagement. the transnational nature of the problems the United States faces defies unilateral solutions. and drug trafficking. Dec 2005. Vol. security. human trafficking. . so Washington resorts to quiet arm-twisting and blandishments to obtain counterterror concessions. war. Newer. ership is essential to meet these threats successfully. it magni. military success in Afghani. the United States has failed to obtain significant participation from all but a handful of major nations. a longtime US ally. a fact that even the White House recognizes. trouble on the far side of the planet. however. Joshua Kurlantzick. 284) Why should the United States care that some criticize its policies and others resent its power? Following U.S.” Current History. so is followership. . silencing critics and creating a bandwagon effect among friends. “Winning the War of Ideas. Washington is simply less able to persuade others. proquest. With America's image declining in nations like Thailand and Pakistan. as demonstrated on September 11. Force is not a long-term solution. the White House has been unable to lead a multinational effort to halt Iran's nuclear program. influence. however. Washington has had to allow China to play a central role. Not because they love us. now more than ever. such as economic disaster. 686. and drug trafficking can only be managed through forms of multilateral cooperation that depend on America's ability to persuade other nations. is tempting. J. pg.. lead.S. and WMD threats. Rogue states. and freedom of movement-against it.S. Lennon. accessed 07/10/07 A broad decline in soft power has many practical implications. 104. As Charles Krauthammer wrote. concluding that unilateral might makes right. the growing attractiveness of China and Europe. nontraditional security threats such as disease."2 Military power remains the foundation of U. "We made it plain that even if no one followed us. it is harder for leaders in these countries to openly embrace counterterrorism cooperation with the United States. The 2002 National security Strategy emphasizes that winning the war on terror requires the United States to lead a battle of ideas against the ideological roots of terrorism. in addition to rooting out and destroying individual militant cells. 419. outbreak of disease. visiting scholar in the Carnegie Endowment’s China Program. partly because few Asian states view the United States as a neutral. outlaw actors. Globalization is erasing borders that once protected the United States. and religious fanatics use the nation's very strengths-its openness. In addition. U. “The Decline of American Soft Power. During the war itself. while empowering its enemies. disease. More than ever before. or elimination-requires the help of others. senior fellow at CSIS. in part because America's image in Turkey was so poor. In the run-up to the Iraq War.. with a decline in soft power. Surprise: others followed.fies U. Terrorism itself cannot be defeated by force alone.

economic and demographic challenges. allowing Beijing and Washington to divide the region into spheres of influence in much the same way as the United States and the Soviet Union managed a politically bifurcated Europe during the early part of the Cold War. Gates Chair in National Security at Texas A & M University’s George H.24 . Second. regardless of its political complexion.International Relations at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. This could always change. Mike. administration. grand strategy will have to change with it. but it is coming to an end.Philadelphia.C. Bush School of Government and Public Service. while popular in some segments of academia. Graduate Student in the PhD Program in Political Science . First. Even Layne agrees. particularly among the elites.US will be more violent and desperate post-decline Dupont June 2012 (Alan. not to mention a rival United States that shows no sign of lapsing into terminal decline despite its current economic travails . it is a given that the United States will define its interests globally and pursue a strategy that requires capable military forces able to project power around the world. Pax Americana also is winding down. for the country faces formidable environmental.the US won’t just give up Layne June 2012 (Chris. remain on the margins of policy debates in Washington D. However. Australia. The future is more likely to be shaped by the East. Because ‘‘indirect’’ counter-strategies are the rational choice for actors facing a strong state’s power projection. Orbis. The problem is that many Americans. lexis) THE CONSTELLATION of world power is changing. The Global Power Shift from West to East. professor and Robert M. Beijing may have to confront the prospect of a resurgent Washington determined to reassert its strategic interests. have embraced the notion of American exceptionalism with such fervor that they can’t discern the world transformation occurring before their eyes. lexis) What of the argument that America should accept the inevitable and share power with China as an equal? Paralleling the G-2 would be an Asia-2. of course. and U. irregular/asymmetric threats are inevitable given America’s role in the global order. First. Advocates of restraint or global withdrawal. at present. just as China wouldn’t if the roles were reversed.AT: Heg Bad – Hard Power Inevitable Decline makes all their turns worse. Sooner than it thinks. The United States can manage this relative decline effectively over the next couple of decades only if it first acknowledges the fundamental reality of decline . sharing between the United States and China is unlikely to work for no U. All their turns are inevitable .¶ At the same time. An Asian Security Standoff.S. resource. The Euro-Atlantic world had a long run of global dominance. The National Interest. professor of international security and director of the Institute for International Security and Development at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. would voluntarily relinquish power to China. power two reasons.S. Nor is it guaranteed to last. The National Interest. the United States is very likely to remain fully engaged in global affairs. China’s new great-power status is hardly untrammeled.Zero Chances of willful US restraint – we’ll inevitably be engaged globally – the only question is effectiveness Shalmon and Horowitz 09 (Dan. Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. W. Spring) It is important to recognize at the outset two key points about United States strategy and the potential costs and benefits for the United States in a changing security environment. American elites must come to grips with the fact that the West does not enjoy a predestined supremacy in international politics that is locked into the future for an indeterminate period of time. While superficially appealing because it holds out the prospect of a peaceful transition to a new international order.

the nascent SinoAmerican rivalry is not merely the result of misperceptions or mistaken policies. The stakes are about as high as they can get. China is. to promulgate their religious or ideological beliefs. Recognizing the growing threat to their position. Even when the demands being made of them are less onerous. Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics. rising powers feel constrained. its leaders generally define their interests more expansively and seek a greater degree of influence over what is going on around them.S. feeding its ambitions and triggering a spiral of escalating demands. international institutions and hierarchies of prestige that were put in place when they were still relatively weak. Successful policies of appeasement are conceivable in theory but in practice have proven devilishly difficult to implement. As a nation’s capabilities grow. when a new. to have what they consider to be their rightful say in the affairs of their region and of the wider world. and. or Germany at the turn of the twentieth. Indeed.” but China is fast gaining ground. not only in Asia. is among the oldest in recorded history..perception of weakness spurs war. Established powers tend to regard themselves as the defenders of an international order that they helped to create and from which they continue to benefit. an aggressor may have ambitions that are so extensive as to be impossible for the status quo powers to satisfy without effectively consigning themselves to servitude or committing national suicide. or too eager to do so. they look for ways to satisfy their demands and ambitions and seek to incorporate them peacefully into the existing international order. lexis) THE UNITED States and the People’s Republic of China are locked in a quiet but increasingly intense struggle for power and influence. The National Interest. rising states tend to be troublemakers. relations between dominant and rising states have been uneasy—and often violent. the state whose capabilities have been growing most rapidly. but around the world. is simply no surprise. Throughout history. But these countries are not just any two great powers: Since the end of the Cold War the United States has been the richest and most powerful nation in the world. rising powers want their place in the sun . then. As far back as the fifth century BC the great Greek historian Thucydides began his study of the Peloponnesian War with the deceptively simple observation that the war’s deepest.-China relationship is competitive. truest cause was “the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta. Others—hoping to avoid war—have taken the opposite approach: attempting to appease potential challengers . these efforts have almost always ended in failure. As they begin to assert themselves. to protect their citizens far from home. This means that those in ascendance typically attempt not only to secure their borders but also to reach out beyond them. dominant powers (or a coalition of status quo states) have occasionally tried to attack and destroy a competitor before it can grow strong enough to become a threat. and the potential for conflict particularly fraught. in general. . have so often been marked by war. by contrast. vigor and decline.” The fact that the U. with its Shakespearean overtones of youth and age. principal beneficiaries and main defenders of any existing international system. even cheated. the dominant states are often either reluctant to make concessions. Sometimes the reason clearly lies in the demands of the rising state.history proves Friedberg 2011 (July/August.Transition  War Transition from US dominance causes conflict.AT: Heg Bad . thereby fueling the frustrations and resentments of the rising power. of course. This. At least insofar as the dominant powers are concerned. The resulting clash of interests between the two sides has seldom been resolved peacefully . And in spite of what many earnest and well-intentioned commentators seem to believe. taking steps to ensure access to markets. materials and transportation routes. professor of politics and international affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University. As was true of Adolf Hitler’s Germany. America is still “number one. by the status quo and struggle against it to take what they think is rightfully theirs. This is why periods of transition. ascendant states typically feel impelled to challenge territorial boundaries. ascending power begins to overtake the previously dominant state. is what brings them into conflict with the established great powers —the so-called status quo states—who are the architects. Aaron L. But however sincere. Like Japan in the late nineteenth century. it is driven instead by forces that are deeply rooted in the shifting structure of the international system and in the very different domestic political regimes of the two Pacific powers. to defend their foreign friends and allies. this story line.

S. the writ of the international community is not global at all. unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires. These groups can operate. unaware of the existence of other civilizations. . that this Dark Age would be an altogether more dangerous one than the Dark Age of the ninth century. A coming retreat into fortified cities. Western investors would lose out and conclude that lower returns at home are preferable to the risks of default abroad. say. it would inevitably become a less open society. All the empires claimed to rule the world. though with some important and troubling differences. So what is left? Waning empires. Europe. humanity has entered an era characterized as much by disintegration as integration. visit.Heg Solves War Collapse of US hegemony causes a global power vacuum resulting in nuclear war Ferguson 04 professor of history at New York University's Stern School of Business and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University (Niall. The reversal of globalization— which a new Dark Age would produce—would certainly lead to economic stagnation and even depression. globalization—the integration of world markets for commodities. If free flows of information and of means of production empower multinational corporations and nongovernmental organizations (as well as evangelistic religious cults of all denominations). one can imagine the world's established powers—the United States. With ease. wherever they choose. For the world is much more populous—roughly 20 times more—so friction between the world's disparate “tribes” is bound to be more frequent. It is.AT: Heg Bad . too. targeting oil tankers. less hospitable for foreigners seeking to work. In short. The worst effects of the new Dark Age would be felt on the edges of the waning great powers. terrorists could disrupt the freedom of the seas. the free flow of destructive technology empowers both criminal organizations and terrorist cells. and cruise liners. The reality. or do business. of course. increasing trans-Atlantic tensions over the Middle East to the breaking point. from Hamburg to Gaza. Technology has transformed production. however. leadership after the Second World War? The United Nations. and capital—has raised living standards throughout the world. With the end of states' monopoly on the means of violence and the collapse of their control over channels of communication. The defining characteristic of our age is not a shift of power upward to supranational institutions. The wealthiest ports of the global economy—from New York to Rotterdam to Shanghai—would become the targets of plunderers and pirates. increasingly confined to a few Page 5 strategic cities such as Kabul and Pristina. it seems. so it is now possible not just to sack a city but to obliterate it. but downward. and the World Trade Organization (formerly the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) each considers itself in some way representative of the “international community. Incipient anarchy. now human societies depend not merely on freshwater and the harvest but also on supplies of fossil fuels that are known to be finite. Technology has upgraded destruction. and China—retreating into their own regional spheres of influence . The reality was political fragmentation. while Western nations frantically concentrated on making their airports secure.” Surely their aspirations to global governance are fundamentally different from the spirit of the Dark Ages? Yet universal claims were also an integral part of the rhetoric of that era. the World Bank. Certainly. Meanwhile. Foreign Policy ) Could an apolar world today produce an era reminiscent of the age of Alfred? It could. These are the Dark Age experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving. the International Monetary Fund. aircraft carriers. And that is also true today. was not a global Christendom. By contrast. except where countries have shut themselves off from the process through tyranny or civil war. As the United States sought to protect itself after a second September 11 devastates. in fact. it is the nonstate actors who truly wield global power—including both the monks and the Vikings of our time. some. But what of the growing pretensions to autonomy of the supranational bodies created under U. nor an all-embracing Empire of Heaven. The trouble is. An economic meltdown in China would plunge the Communist system into crisis. as Europe's Muslim enclaves grew. “A World without Power”. maybe even believed that they did. Houston or Chicago. labor. Islamist extremists' infiltration of the EU would become irreversible. For more than two decades. Religious revivals.

) Under the third option. Lexis. and the rule of law. Spring 1995. the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -. The few remaining solvent airlines would simply suspend services to many cities in these continents. wretchedly poor citizens would seek solace in Evangelical Christianity imported by U. beginning in the Korean peninsula and Kashmir. First. free markets. such as nuclear proliferation. who would wish to leave their privately guarded safe havens to go there? For all these reasons. Second. the great plagues of AIDS and malaria would continue their deadly work. such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems. perhaps ending catastrophically in the Middle East. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival. The alternative to unipolarity would not be multipolarity at all. religious orders . RAND Corporation.Meanwhile. And far more dangerous forces than rival great powers would benefit from such a not-so-new world disorder Lack of hegemony  extinction Khalilzad. In Africa. this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision.S. U.democracy. threats of regional hegemony by renegade states. “Losing the Moment?” The Washington Quarterly 18. If the United States retreats from global hegemony — its fragile self-image dented by minor setbacks on the imperial frontier—its critics at home and abroad must not pretend that they are ushering in a new era of multipolar harmony. limited nuclear wars could devastate numerous regions. but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. On balance. or even a return to the good old balance of power. In Latin America. It would be apolarity—a global vacuum of power.S. U. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself.2. the prospect of an apolar world should frighten us today a great deal more than it frightened the heirs of Charlemagne. . Be careful what you wish for. and low-level conflicts. the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. Rand Corporation 1995 (Zalmay Khalilzad. including a global nuclear exchange.S. Finally. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system. enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers.

the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced. They are more environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own citizens. Nov/Dec2006 Issue 86.S. Without U. power behind it. And so.. such as in Darfur. appears increasingly endangered. p. In addition. peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power -Rome. During the Cold War. Second. The first has been a more peaceful world. growing democratization-is directly linked to U. Stanford University.carnegie. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war. They do not build weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another. India and Pakistan.Heg Solves Democracy Heg promotes democracy Thayer 6 (Bradley A. December. power. chemical and biological weapons continue to proliferate. Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one another. particularly war's worst form: great power wars. Britain or the United States today. American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world. PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN THE 1990S. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. Democracy solves extinction Diamond 95 (Larry Diamond. and enduring trading partnerships. it is important to note what those good things are. This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U. the global ecosystem. 1995. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies. Israel and Egypt. with its provisions for legality. Democratic countries form more reliable. Democratic governments do not ethnically "cleanse" their own populations . but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood.. power. Everything we think of when we consider the current international order--free trade. the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly.( n3) So. increasing respect for human rights. popular sovereignty and openness. http://www. who organize to protest the destruction of their environments . as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue. and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics. Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened. p32-37) Throughout history. it is because they are more open. Today. liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview.S. in general. Indonesia and Australia ." Consequently. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. U. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. Most of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy. spreading democracy helps maintain U.” National Interest. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse.S. accountability.S. more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U. leadership. Hoover Institution. a robust monetary regime. most notably France and West Germany. Prof of Defense and Strategic Studies @ Missouri State University. open.html) Nuclear. Rather.S. As country and western great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it). The experience of this century offers important lessons. once states are governed democratically. . Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against one another.AT: Heg Bad . “In Defense of Primacy. primacy. American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism: Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because.S. In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for investment.org//sub/pubs/deadly/diam_rpt. South Korea and Japan. American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned--between Greece and Turkey. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists. The very source of life on Earth. democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United States. Indeed they do.

Americans hate whining and blamegaming. Hanson: I think all three. it will be 1979 redux. If he slips once. November/December. one more will be really toxic. 2) I think he will drop the reset/“Bush did it” throat-clearing soon. as his polls continue to stay below 50 percent. rogue states or rising powers. and Russia will continue its energy bullying of Eastern Europe . We are now in a great waiting game. Much of diplomacy rests on public perceptions. North Korea. etc. friendship and values are liabilities. Iran to get the bomb and begin to threaten ever so insidiously its Gulf neighborhood. To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression. Stanford University) December 2009 “Change. a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. Iran. Russia. If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States. the communist inroads in Central America. Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home". — are just waiting to see who’s going to be the first to try Obama — and whether Obama really will be as tenuous as they expect. Most are starting to see that our relations with Britain. In other words. when we saw the rise of radical Islam. it seems to be a losing trope. Whether they are terrorists. retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom. Hanson: Obama is one bow and one apology away from a circus . Missouri State University (Bradley A. but not as part of a deliberate pattern.resistnet. So the apologies and bows don’t go over well here at home. then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from Causes global wars that escalate – perception is key Victor Davis Hanson (Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution. however trivial. Italy. I think we got off the back of the tiger and now no one quite knows pressuring autonomous former republics to get back in line with some sort of new Russian autocratic commonwealth. Lexis) In contrast. 06 – Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. while insidiously There’s an outside shot that North Korea might do something really stupid near the 38th parallel and China will ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan. wishing to redraw the existing landscape — whether China. etc . BC: Can Obama get any more mileage from his perpetually played “I’m not George W. Indeed. after a year. The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics. BC: With what country then — Venezuela. Bush” card or is that card past its expiration date? Dr.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disasterobama/showLastReply Dr. Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson. does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics. whom it will bite or when. Disaster. I would expect. — do you believe his global repositioning will cause the most damage? Dr. Iran. history shows that threats must be confronted. in the next three years. Ditto the mea culpas. “In Defense of Primacy. Venezuela. and it cannot hide from threats. for any president to keep scapegoating a prior administration. poll-wise. . The world can understand a kowtow gaffe to some Saudi royals. India’s borders with both Pakistan and China will heat up. Pakistan. Hanson: Two considerations: 1) It’s hard (in addition to being shameless). or France are no better under Obama — and probably worse — than during the Bush administration. the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.” http://www. predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. politically speaking. Germany. etc.S.” National Interest.AT: Heg Bad – Heg Solves Deterrence Heg collapse emboldens rogues – it signals weakness Thayer.. Washington cannot call a "time out". Venezuela will probably cook up some scheme to do a punitive border raid into Colombia to apprise South America that U. Weakness. as regional hegemons. the Iranian hostage mess. thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half-pledges to defend its interests and allies. Syria.

efforts to counter them. 73. The best that can be done is to make plans for the future on the basis of present trends. Or China might continue to rise in place – steadily improving its capabilities in absolute terms while stagnating. but its performance in battle against the United States would not necessarily be much better than that of.challengers can’t make up the power differential.S.. especially in littorals and low-‐altitudes close to enemy territory. soldiers. China projected a huge army into Korea and killed tens of thousands of U. And what the trends suggest is that America’s economic. the U.700 U. weak adversaries can impose significant costs. and military lead over China will be an enduring feature of international relations . but it is often incremental and nonlinear. local knowledge. China’s per capita income has declined relative to that of the United States.S. . military has vulnerabilities. p.‐denial” capabilities are outpacing U. say. p. and integrate individual technologies into cohesive military systems. regardless of the size of their defense budgets. Ibid. this growing economic gap is also a growing military gap. 1993-‐2000. 2001.206 Multivariate regressions suggest that military effectiveness is determined by a country’s level of economic development. helicopters and aircraft with simple antiaircraft artillery and no early warning radar. social. economic superiority literally gives the United States “more bang for the buck” – each dollar it spends on the military produces more force than each dollar China spends. however.S.AT: Heg Bad .S. some experts believe China’s “anti-area. None of this should be cause for chest-‐thumping. the gap in defense spending likely understates the true military gap because U.209 There are reasons to doubt this claim – the Pentagon is developing sophisticated countermeasures and Chinese writings may purposefully exaggerate PLA capabilities.” compensating for its technological and organizational inferiority by utilizing asymmetric strategies. In a separate study.20: Share of World Arms Transfer Agreements. Dissertation found on google scholar) More important. relative to the United States. Conclusion Change is inevitable.…The military balance today and for the foreseeable future strongly favors the United States and its allies. PhD candidate at the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences at Columbia.S. China can “pose problems without catching up. I found that developing countries systematically fail at warfare. 1993-‐2008 Source: Congressional Research Service. From 1961 to 1968 North Vietnamese and Vietcong units brought down 1. and political factors. As noted earlier. Yes.‐2008. because they lack the economic capacity to maintain. Iraq circa 1991.5 percent.210 There is also reason to doubt the strategic importance of China’s capabilities because the United States may be able to launch effective attacks from positions beyond the reach of Chinese missiles and submarines. 71. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations. even after controlling for numerous material. China’s defense industry has also fallen further behind : in 2008. share of the world conventional arms market surged to 68 percent while China’s share dropped below 1. The Unipolar Era: Why American Power Persists and China’s Rise Is Limited. Indeed. as measured by per capita income.”207 Figure 3. that the U. and trends point toward continued unipolarity Beckley 2012 (Michael.S. China may surge out of its unimpressive condition and close the gap with the United States. If history is any guide. In the coming decades. The PLA may look increasingly respectable on paper. technological. modernize. and a greater willingness to bear costs.211 It is certainly true. But this has always been the case.212 Sixty years ago. but evidence of American vulnerability is not the same as evidence of American decline. but a deeply embedded material condition that will persist for the foreseeable future . or even declining.Its Sustainable Heg is sustainable. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations. not a passing moment in time. an independent task force of more than thirty experts recently found “no evidence to support the notion that China will become a peer military competitor of the United States.208 In particular.

on the other hand. it is useful to consider William Wohlforth's admonition: "If balancing were the frictionless. 19 As illustrated in table 2. the United States is by far the largest military spender and has actually United States’ lead over its nearest competitor is actually stronger in the security arena than it was in 1988 . Without even throwing the technological sophistication of American weaponry (or the collective action problems that many states confront when deciding to act in the national interest) into the balance. the absolute threshold should represent 50 percent of the capabilities in the system. Still. The next section considers hegemonic strategies that can soften opposition. 61 Levy and Thompson raise the important question of why other states failed to balance against the United States when it was a rising power but not yet a hegemon.1.S. For decades. and Syria.S. primacy appear not to be worried about it. the country with the second largest share today. 65 Meanwhile. the absolute security threshold should not pose the same problem because of the logical limits in determining it. then the unipolar power would need more than 50 percent of the capabilities in the great power system to stave off a counterpoise. Russia. It may be an exaggeration to suggest that the United States became a hegemon by accident. Institutions. But the European Union’s share does not amount to even half of the United States’ share of the world total. postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Politics.S. This is the figure William Thompson suggests in describing a near-unipolar system. Because of the superiority of American military power. making balancing futile. costless activity assumed in some balance-of-power theories. Moreover. The 2003 invasion of Iraq is a case in point but there are plenty of other examples. . but the outcome was not planned. International Security. History at the University of Bologna. few will contest that the United States is in a league of its own when it comes to security affairs. . The European Union." 59 It is therefore reasonable to assume that the absolute security threshold is around 45 percent of the military capabilities in the system. there are also economic advantages associated with this privileged position in the security field. But such expectations miss the fact that alliance politics always impose costs. 63 U. lexis) In principle. Ideally. 64 The extraordinarily wide gap in capabilities created by the fall of the Soviet Union left other states with little choice but to acquiesce. 62 Part of the answer lies in the United States' unusual path to primacy. accounts for a larger share than did the Soviet Union in 1988 . The increased its share of world military spending in the last twenty years. the absence of balancing against the United States today appears less puzzling. A Neorealist Synthesis. . This is the claim that is likely to be the most carefully scrutinized. the euro area still accounts for a lower share today than did the Soviet Union in 1988. But what about the economic realm? The real test is whether the United States still towers over other countries economically. the Soviet Union maintained a rough balance with the United States. only accounts for 5 percent of the world total.bandwagoning is more likely.AT: Heg Bad – No Counter Balancing No counterbalancing. Although some question the utility of armed force. the Soviet Union was the closest rival in 1988. Spring. primacy resulted from the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union. because at this level the sum of all the forces opposing the aspiring hegemon is insufficient to successfully balance it. whereas China. The Security Curve and the Structure of International Politics. Counting coalitions as potential balancers. Countries such as China. the United States faces very few constraints in the security arena . or even Brazil and Pakistan. As I will also show in chapter 6. may not like U. and is able to reap economic benefits as a result of its hegemonic position. primacy. accounting for 18 percent of the world total. and other states’ dependence on it for effective action. Iran. . other countries benefiting from U. No balancing – US lead is insurmountable and is growing Carla Norrlof (an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto) 2010 “America’s Global Advantage US Hegemony and International Cooperation” p. it is clear that the United States is peerless in the security sphere and has strengthened its lead in the last two decades. but they lack the capabilities to challenge it.maintaining the power gap key to prevent challengers Fiammenghi 2011 (Davide. 60 In this light. The United States has already moved beyond the absolute threshold.

194) This unpopularity matters."34 . fellow at the USC School of Public Diplomacy and the Pacific Council on International Policy and previous foreign editor at The New Republic.AT: Heg Bad – Link Turn Low US soft power leads to an increase in unilateralism. pg. Even without China on the scene. Charm Offensive. warning that if the "downward spiral [in diplomacy] is not reversed. America's declining popularity decreases Washington's soft power. and potentially makes the United States more likely to resort to force rather than persuasion to meet American objectives. the prospect of relying on military force to protect US national interests will increase. One recent bipartisan report on American diplomacy concluded as much. Kurlantzick 07 (Joshua.

the region. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO.S. is the possibility of normalization of trade relations with the United States. Report for the Cuban Research Institute.fiu.pdf) Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face of a continuing opposition by the United States to anything resembling what can be construed as “good news” for the Castro regime? Obviously. the task still falls to the Cuban government.edu/research/commissionedreports/oil-cuba-alvarado. Two factors may alter this present situation. realized through a division of labor and dispersion of resources that serve as a hedge against natural disaster and market disruptions. But it stands to reason that no matter how successful these efforts are. Moreover. and international financial institutions. U. Cuba may indeed realize a bonanza from the offshore tracts that will allow it to possibly address its many energy challenges. from increasing oil production and refining capacity. government agencies. Florida International University. Cuban officials are not averse and perhaps would prefer that the U. will play important roles in the funding of the effort to revitalize the Cuban energy sector. to improving the nation’s energy infrastructure. Cuba is sparing no effort by instituting bottom-up and top-down policy initiatives to meet this challenge. and no less significant. all states could derive benefit from the public information campaigns to promote energy efficiency and conservation presently being promoted in Cuba in the face of diminishing energy stocks and uncertain global markets. It suffices to say that the requisite investment and assistance will have a distinct American tinge to it.S. It has significantly increased its international cooperation in the energy sector and continues to enhance its efforts to ensure energy security in these most uncertain of times. Treasurer of the American Political Science Association. design and implement energy development policies that will benefit Cuba for generations to come. but the cost will necessarily be spread through a number of sources that are predominately American because of strategic interests.¶ The overview of the Cuban energy developments clearly and unambiguously reveals that the Castro regime has every intention of continuing to promote. This is important not only because it will allow direct foreign investment. First. Second. As energy security concerns continue to percolate up to an increasingly important status in the realm of national security objectives we may begin to see the erosion of the hard position against the Cuban regime regardless of its leadership. ensuring a stable energy future. inasmuch as American corporations. because up until this point it hasn’t cost the United States much if anything. The current policy continues to clearly place at the forefront the sanctity and utility of a comprehensive economic and political embargo in the hopes that it helps to foment a change in regime and a peaceful transition to a democratic system of governance and a complimentary market economy. Ultimately. PhD. “The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special.S. proximity and affinity. they will come up short. and only after normalization.” http://cri. is a major contributor. technology transfer and information sharing between these neighboring states but it possibly enhances the energy security of both states. Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha. of which the U. be its major partner in this effort owing to the fact that most if not all of . and hence.AT: Not Enough Oil US-Cuban joint oil production is the critical key to US oil selfsufficiency---there are massive amounts of offshore oil waiting to be tapped Benjamin-Alvadaro 6 (Jonathan.

For this reason alone. trust and cooperation in this critical issue area across the region. . it increases the long-term cost of the effort. in large part because of the American economic embargo. the American role in assisting Cuba in this effort will be significant and every day that the task is put off. oil and gas comes from the United States. ¶ Finally. This should serve as an obvious point of entry into cooperation with the Cuban government and perhaps can serve as a catalyst for promoting confidence.the cutting-edge technology in energy. the cost is significant and it stands to reason that the longer one waits to address the challenge at hand the higher the cost of modernizing the energy sector . absent the type of infrastructural investment that is available to most developing states. It is remarkable that the Cuban energy sector is as vibrant as it presently is.

allowing them to respond quickly to rapid environmental change and thus rendering them ecologically adaptable . http://www.30 Repsol has significant offshore experience.S. Hofstra University School of Law. November 29. "[t]he Cuban oil industry has put a lot of research.pewclimate. President of the Houston-based International Association of Drilling Contractors. lexis Fears that Cuban offshore drilling poses serious environmental threats because of the proximity to the United States and the prohibition on U.Environmental science prof. and PetroVietnam also have offshore experience. technology transfer are overblown.S.31 Among other Cuban lease holders. PdVSA does not. n64 Lee Hunt. including extra equipment to shut off blown-out wells beyond what is required in the United States.opencrs. which is not abnormal for an oil company. Gulf of Mexico. and Mark P. and are generally seen as accomplished offshore operators ..AT: Environment Turn Cuba won’t spill---they’ll be safe and U. (Victor. L.S. Cuba has at least as much incentive to ensure safe-drilling practices as does the United States. p.org/projects/marine. Oceans are resilient Kennedy 2 . 12 Sustainable Dev. said.pdf It is difficult to assess the likelihood of a spill . 2010. Fall 2011. Specialist in Energy Policy at the Congressional Research Service. including projects in the U.” Sustainable Development Law & Policy. ONGC. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems and Global Climate Change." n65 Thus. “Cuba’s Offshore Oil Development: Background and U. including projects in the U. Former Director. Scarabeo-9 is built to Norwegian standards. It has had issues with oil spills. “IN THIS ISSUE: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICT: CUBAN OFFSHORE DRILLING: PREPARATION AND PREVENTION WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE UNITED STATES' EMBARGO. Petronas. PhD. Gulf of Mexico. Maryland.” online: http://assets. Specialist in Latin American Affairs at the Congressional Research Service. foreign sources have provided supplemental alternatives.S.com/rpts/R41522_20101129.S. n66 Companies investing in Cuba have extensive offshore experience---no risk of spills Nerurkar & Sullivan 10 – Neelesh Nerurkar.D." and that "they are very knowledgeable of international industry practices and have incorporated many of these principles into their safety and regulatory planning and requirements. Policy Considerations. Steele components of marine systems are tightly coupled to physical factors. and reports indicate that Cuba is taking safety seriously.cfm) There is evidence that marine organisms and ecosystems are resilient to environmental change. & Pol'y 37. (1991) hypothesized that the biological . Some species also have wide genetic variability throughout their range. study and thought into what will be required to safely drill. but its offshore project appears the furthest from seeing drilling activity among existing licenses. involvement isn’t key Richard Sadowski 11. Cooperative Oxford Laboratory. Petrobras and Statoil have extensive offshore experience . According to Saipem. J. Sullivan. while the economic embargo of Cuba restricts American technology from being utilized. which may allow for adaptation to climate change.

Clupeidae) over the past two millennia to suggest that rapid declines and increases of up to 10-fold are relatively common in exploited fish stocks. Musick 1999. Hutchings 2001a). . For the (1996) IUCN list. however. 2000. respectively. They argue that percent decline criteria are too conservative compared to the high natural variability of fish populations . 2002). while declines of 50 and 80% led to classifications of 'endangered' and 'critically endangered'. These criteria were designed to be applied to all animal and plant taxa.1997. be borne in mind that the variation of exploited populations must be higher than unexploited populations because recruitment fluctuations increasingly drive population fluctuations when there are few adults (Pauly et al.1) Marine fish populations are more variable and resilient than terrestrial populations Great natural variability in population size is sometimes invoked to argue that IUCN Red List criteria. a decline of 20% within 10 years or three generations (whichever is longer) triggered a classification of 'vulnerable'. Extinction vulnerability in marine populations. Matsuda et al. Newcastle (Nicholas. (2000) cite the six-fold variation of the Pacific sardine population (Sardinopssagax. but many marine resource biologists feel that for marine fishes 'one size does not fit all' (see Hutchings 2001a). Powles et al. It should. Clupeidae) and a nine-fold variation in northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax. are too conservative for marine fishes (Hudson and Mace1996.Marine life is resilient Dulvy 3 – Professor of Marine Science and Technology. as one example. Fish and Fisheries 4. Powles et al.

AT: HEALTH CARE DA .

” And their system. or segregated. the military. liposuction. “We have nothing. And the chief of medical services for the whole of the Cuban military had to rent out his car as a taxi on weekends. finding an aspirin can be a chore. Conditions are so unsanitary. Even if they have passed their expiry date. and typhoid fever. even sophisticated medications are plentiful and cheap. In many hospitals patients must provide their own sheets. like the one for medical tourists. on errands of mercy.” The tourists pay in hard currency.htm To be sure. there are separate hotels. Jaime Suchlicki of the University of Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies explains that there is not just one system. soap. official artists and writers.Cuban health care is struggling – the economy and the embargo The Economist 7/14/2012 “Cuban Health Care: Under Investigation” http://www. When they travel to the island. In the real Cuba. Remember.” he explained. whatever he does with it. And the facilities in which they are treated are First World: clean. these people were called the “nomenklatura. One told the Associated Press. Pharmacies are generally illstocked. Testimony and documentation on the subject are vast. the one that ordinary people must use — and it is wretched. this causes widespread resentment in the general population. Then there is the real Cuban system. “I haven’t seen aspirin in a Cuban store here for more than a year. leprosy. and so on. The foreigners-only facilities do a big business in what you might call vanity treatments: Botox. light bulbs — even toilet paper. towels. whatever home is. Measles jabs have been near-universal for more than 20 years. a third of these are deployed overseas in “soft-power” missions. People speak of “tourism apartheid. an exiled doctor named Dessy Mendoza Rivero — a former political prisoner and a spectacularly brave man — wrote a book called ¡Dengue! La Epidemia Secreta de Fidel Castro. These include tuberculosis. If they do have to go to the hospital. In Sicko. food and dressings. or even two: There are three. And an antibiotic will fetch a fortune on the black market. This is known as “medical tourism. Neglect of infrastructure means that almost 10% of the population lacks . Hospitals and clinics are crumbling. which provides oxygen to the regime. there is excellent health care on Cuba — just not for ordinary Cubans.Health Care DA – 2AC NO IMPACT – Cuban Health care cannot solve disease National Review 7/30/2007 “The Myth of Cuban Health Care” http://www. state-of-the-art. well supplied. And basic medications are scarce. And dengue. they must bring their own bedsheets. too.org/cuba/health-myth. that there are many separate. NOT UNIQUE . is top-notch. In the Soviet Union.” And doctors are not necessarily privileged citizens in Cuba. in 2003. A nurse spoke to Isabel Vincent of Canada’s National Post. Life- expectancy matches that of Americans. who are eight times richer. he earned what most doctors did: 575 pesos a month. separate restaurants — separate everything. I’ll take them. separate beaches. “The [Cuban] doctors are pretty well trained.” For example. and breast implants. The first is for foreigners who come to Cuba specifically for medical care. But Cuba’s crumbling economy has put this system under stress.economist.” said the nurse. or about 25 dollars. A doctor in exile told the Miami Herald that. Infant mortality ties with Canada’s as the lowest in the Americas. He had to sell pork out of his home to get by. patients may be better off at home. (Of course. It’s like operating with knives and spoons. American doctors make sure to take as much equipment and as many supplies as they can carry. food. If you have any pills in your purse.) So deplorable is the state of health care in Cuba that old-fashioned diseases are back with a vengeance. Cubans were justifiably proud of their health-care system. As you can well imagine. Indeed. facilities on Cuba.latinamericanstudies. Dr. putting Cuba ahead of many rich countries. “Everyone tries to survive. you can call a Cuban with a car privileged.” The equipment that doctors have to work with is either antiquated or nonexistent. Though the state still trains armies of doctors. but they have nothing to work with. Doctors have been known to reuse latex gloves — there is no choice. another fever. is a particular menace.com/node/21558613 Until recently. The second health-care system is for Cuban elites — the Party.

" said Director of the institute Dr. told Xinhua that Cuba had made a great effort for the benefit of all its citizens. He added some equipments were simply unattainable. The Cuban government also offers scholarships to 20.com/english/health/2012-11/28/c_132004531.xinhuanet. mostly in Venezuela but also in Africa. the Caribbean and Central America. "because they are manufactured in the United States. maternal mortality has risen.000 Cuban doctors and other health workers were working in 77 countries around the world. where thousands of people receive free medical care every year from international specialists. If the health service is to thrive again. Hospital patients sometimes have to bring their own sheets. But the main reason for the shortage of medical staff is low salaries. A woman who gave her name as Grisel says she worked as a family doctor for just $23 a month. A pair of children's shoes costs $13.Health care declining – supplies & staff The Economist 3/24/2012 “The deal's off. As a doctor "I faced a choice of buying shoes or eating. south of the capital." The embargo has caused Cuba a loss of more than 200 million dollars in the medical sector alone by 2011.htm HAVANA." LINK TURN . 27 (Xinhua) -. says Julia Sweig of the Council on Foreign Relations. this sort of economic surgery will need to speed up. There are reports of doctors starting to demand payment. which means higher prices for these products. is financially strained by the embargo. representing a significant impact on the tiny Caribbean nation. reported this week. "It provides us free medicine across the country. Inequality” page proquest And now health services and education are becoming harder to access and getting worse . according to official figures.S.Embargo restricts Cuba from access to necessary medicines and tech Xinhua News 11/28/2012 “Cuban healthcare weakended by U. Secondary-school enrolment is below its 1989 peak. John Rhodes. NOT UNIQUE . On a weekday morning in a village in the inappropriately named municipality of La Salud ("health"). this correspondent came across an elderly woman who had hurt her arm and was whimpering with pain. Lorenzo Llerena.S. is trying to revive the economy by cautiously transferring chunks of it into private hands. Many drugs are in short supply. mammograms and cancer therapy is hard to replace. buying from third parties.access to clean drinking water. In 2010. embargo. having found no doctors in attendance at two health clinics. "We must find alternatives that sometimes include purchasing from distant markets." he said. The next step.Cuban medical authorities said on Tuesday a 50-year trade embargo imposed by the United States has severely undermined the country's healthcare system. an American think-tank. a patient. The American embargo against the island does not help: equipment for radiology. who this month visited China and Vietnam.000 Latin Americans to study medicine--all part of its obsessive search for international prestige. Nov. currently restricted to farming." . Cuban hospitals suffer restrictions in acquiring imported medical consumables and medicine. embargo” http://news. Raúl Castro. The public Institute of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery. the president. 37. She has two small children. Although infant mortality has continued to fall. will be to let transport and other service workers form cooperatives. which is highly expensive around the world. advanced medical technology and latest scientific information. but now earns $40 a month in an improvised craft shop in Havana. officials said. sometimes we do not have all the raw materials and tools to solve certain problems immediately. adding "due to the U. There is a surfeit of humanities graduates and a shortage of agronomists and engineers.

Based on a fact-finding mission to Cuba. the U.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng.45 The 300-page document is still the most comprehensive study on the issue.” 46 . and limited the exchange of medical and scientific information due to travel restrictions and currency regulations.LINK TURN . poor water quality.amnestyusa. embargo of food and the de facto embargo on medical supplies has wreaked havoc with the island's model primary health care system.pdf The negative impact of the US embargo on the Cuban health care system and on the right to health of Cubans during the 1990s has been documented in a 1997 report by the American Association for World Health (AAWH).Embargo devastates health care system – supplies & lack of information exchange Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.S. the AAWH identified that the embargo contributed particularly to malnutrition affecting especially women and children. lack of access to medicines and medical supplies. The AAWH found that “a humanitarian catastrophe has been averted only because the Cuban government has maintained a high level of budgetary support for a health care system designed to deliver primary and preventive health care to all of its citizens… Even so.

food and water for hospital stays.Health Care DA – N/U Ext Health care system is crumbling – budget cuts Associated Press 8/25/2012 “Cuba Health Care: Budget Cuts Threaten Sector” Huffington Post http://www." said Phil Peters." The theme of the Granma pieces. 13 There are claims that hospitals are often in poor conditions and doctors have to bring in their own supplies and equipment to allow them to treat their patients. Venezuela provides much-needed oil to Cuba and in exchange receives Cuban doctors and medical supplies. Every year Cuba exports huge amounts of medical aid. The health sector has already endured millions of dollars in budget cuts and tens of thousands of layoffs. Scarcities now are common and sanitary conditions fall short of the ideal in decaying facilities where paint peels from the walls.uk/issue9/hanna/ However. is not immune to cutbacks under Raul Castro's drive for efficiency. 10 Despite the production of medical supplies and technology .co. 22 For example. but quite a bit for Cuba. mostly to other Latin American countries for purely financial returns. of which the poor and middle classes of Cuba are very unlikely to have. to explain or blunt fears of a drop-off in care and to remind Cubans to be grateful that health care is still free despite persistent economic woes. long considered a birthright by its citizens and trumpeted as one of the communist government's great successes. It's part of a wider media campaign that seems geared to discourage frivolous use of medical services. who predict further cuts or significant changes to what has been a pillar of the socialist system implanted after the 1959 revolution. Patients often bring their own bed sheets. 23 The ‘pesos pharmacies’ and local state hospitals are drastically under-stocked and thus access for the poor to needed medication is minimal.huffingtonpost. 14 Cuba’s dual economy has a lot to do with why such disparity exists. posters in clinics and ads on state TV is the same: "Your health care is free. and it became clear this month that Castro is looking for more ways to save when the newspaper voice of the Communist Party. Pharmacies are often very poorly stocked and rationing of supplies is minimal. "Very often the media has been a leading indicator of where the economic reforms are going. "My guess is that there's some kind of policy statement to follow. because that's been the pattern.Cuba's system of free medical care. It's not a luxury service though. a longtime Cuba observer at the Lexington Institute think tank. Granma. Based on the official exchange rate.html HAVANA -. .com/2012/08/27/cuba-healthcare_n_1832955. it seems very little of this actually remains in Cuba. which spends $190 million a year paying for its citizens' medical bills. challenges remain. But it's also raising the eyebrows of outside analysts.14 for each X-ray and $6. $4.827 for a heart transplant. the government spends $2 each time a Cuban visits a family doctor. Cubans lack resources for necessary medicine and equipment Global Politics 2007 “The Challenges of Health Care in Cuba” http://www. but how much does it cost?" The answer is.global- politics. despite the service being free. not much by outside standards. Healthcare may be free and available for all Cuban citizens but medication is not. electric fans. published daily details for two weeks on how much the government spends on everything from anesthetics and acupuncture to orthodontics and organ transplants. Medication and equipment is there and available but only to pay for in American dollars.

An Amnesty report examines the effects of the sanctions.S.com/2009/HEALTH/09/01/amnesty.S." Khan said. Cuban and global health communities. I would say the people most affected have been cancer and HIV-AIDS patients.php/communities/303-lexington-fayette-county/29814-ukdelegation-visits-cuba-learns-about-its-healthcare-system “Many of the problems with Cuba’s health care system are associated with the American embargo.S.amnestyusa.. Learns About its Healthcare System” http://surfky. In 2007.cuba. A U.The U. and from any U. a non-profit organization that encourages cooperation among U. hospitals and day care centers is contributing to a high prevalence of iron deficiency anemia. Embargo restricts health care – equipment & chemicals Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www. .S.AT: Health Care DA – Link Turn Ext Embargo prevents access to necessary tech SurfKY News 4/15/2013 “UK Delegation Visits Cuba. “This prevents them from having access to the latest pharmaceutical and technological advances." She also said the embargo affects the way doctors think about the future. so many of their facilities are very basic. Amnesty International SecretaryGeneral Irene Khan called the U. Gail Reed is international director of MEDICC (Medical Education Cooperation with Cuba). trade embargo on Cuba is endangering the health of millions by limiting Cubans' access to medicines and medical technology. leaving medical equipment without replacement parts and patients without continuity of medications." The Amnesty report also cites United Nations data that says Cuba's inability to import nutritional products for schools. which have been in place since 1962. human rights group Amnesty International alleged Wednesday.S. is adopting a new policy toward Cuba. The embargo restricts the export of medicines and medical equipment from the U. Amnesty also called on President Obama to not renew the Trading with the Enemy Act.” Berres said.S. "In general.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng.” Embargo prevents access to tech and medicine CNN 9/02/2009 “Report: U. "Doctors in Cuba always worry that an international supplier will be bought out by a U. Cuba can import these products from other countries. The Act has been reviewed by U. citizens from visiting relatives in Cuba. England (CNN) -. Amnesty said that while not renewing the Act would not in itself end the embargo against Cuba. but there are major shipping costs and logistical challenges to contend with. the condition affected 37. it would send a clear message that the U.5 percent of Cuba's children under three years old. Gerardo Ducos. presidents on an annual basis since 1978." Reed said.S.S. embargo immoral and said it should be lifted. company. the embargo has a sweeping effect on Cuban healthcare . State Department spokeswoman would not comment on the report because she hadn't read it.cnn. "It's preventing millions of Cubans from benefiting from vital medicines and medical equipment essential for their health. told CNN that although medicines and medical supplies can be licensed for export to Cuba. "The president believes it makes strategic sense to hold on to some inducements we can use in dealing with a Cuban government if it shows any signs of seeking a normalized relationship with us and begins to respect basic human rights.com/index.S. the conditions governing the process make their export virtually impossible. She told CNN.health/ LONDON. In April this year President Obama lifted restrictions that had prevented U. an Amnesty researcher for the Caribbean region.-owned company abroad.pdf The provision of health care has also suffered from the limitations and restrictions imposed by the embargo on the procurement of basic and specialized medical equipment and chemical components needed for the production of generic medicines. sanctions put Cubans' health at risk” http://edition. However. Over the past decades. according to UNICEF. she said. which is due for renewal on September 14. and sending them remittances.S.S.

who face long delays before having access to adequate medicine or treatment. The financial burden and commercial barriers have led to shortages or intermittent availability of drugs.Embargo hurts health care – hampers UN programs Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.pdf The impact of economic sanctions on health and health services is not limited to difficulties in the supply of medicine. Health and health services depend on functioning water and sanitation infrastructure. Embargo hurts health care – infrastructure Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.pdf The increase in the costs for purchasing the necessary medicine or medical materials is hampering the implementation of UN development projects and programmes. The repercussions of these difficulties are ultimately felt by the intended beneficiaries of these programmes. medicines.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. on electricity and other functioning equipment such as X-ray facilities or refrigerators to store vaccines. It has also hindered the renovation of hospitals.64 .amnestyusa. equipment and spare parts.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. clinics and care centres for the elderly.amnestyusa.

which aims to isolate and destabilize the regime through economic sanctions. it will still have to be reconciled with an enduring hostile relationship between both countries .[*215] Doesn’t solve hard power – lifting the embargo is key to cooperating on oil drilling – that’s the key internal link to hard power . n78 While any increase in humanitarian assistance will no doubt be viewed as a positive step in the right direction.at least. On the one hand.AT: LIFT TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS CP Removing travel restrictions alone is insufficient to solve the soft power advantave advantage – removing the whole embargo is key Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. n79 any increase in humanitarian assistance might also require a proportional loosening of the trade and travel restrictions . policy.S. The perception in Cuba is that the United States is responsible for the chronic humanitarian crisis that has afflicted the island since 1989. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The only problem with offering more humanitarian aid to Cuba is that it seemingly contradicts current U. on the other hand.S. as applied to humanitarian organizations. since so much of America's humanitarian soft power resources lie outside of government in the private sector and civil society. humanitarian assistance is the very type of soft power engagement that might help thaw relations between Washington and Havana. However.