Cal - Cuba Aff --- Starter Packet | Cuba | The United States

Plan

The United States federal government should end its embargo on
Cuba

LEADERSHIP ADV

LEADERSHIP ADV – 1AC
SCENARIO ONE: SOFT POWER:
Anti-Americanism is growing in Latin America – extending an olive
branch to Cuba is necessary to re-establish our regional soft power
Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy

Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis
Anti-Americanism has become the political chant de jour for leaders seeking longterm as well as short-term gains in Latin American elections. In Venezuela, the
anti-American rhetoric spewed by Hugo Chavez masks his otherwise autocratic
tendencies, while countries like Bolivia and Ecuador tilt further away from
Washington, both rhetorically and substantively. The former expelled the U.S. Ambassador in October 2008, and the latter
has refused to renew Washington's lease on an airbase traditionally used for counter-narcotics missions. The systemic
neglect for eight years during the Bush Administration meant that political capital
was never seriously spent dealing with issues affecting the region . Because of this, President
Bush was unable to get much headway with his proposal to reform immigration, and his free trade agreement with Colombia
encountered significant opposition in Congress. Recent examples of U.S. unilateralism, disregard

for
international law and norms, and a growing financial crisis, have all been seized
by a new generation of populist Latin American leaders who stoke anti-American
sentiment.
The region, however, is absolutely critical to our national interest and security. Over
thirty percent of our oil comes from Latin America - more than the U.S. imports
from the Middle East. Additionally, over half of the foreign-born population in the United States is Latin American,
meaning that a significant portion of American society is intrinsically tied to the region. n1 These immigrants, as well as their sons
and daughters, have already begun to take their place amongst America's social, cultural, and political elite.
Just south of America's borders, a deepening polarization is spreading throughout

the entire region. In the last few years ideological allies in Bolivia, Ecuador, and
Venezuela have written and approved new constitutions that have consolidated the
power of the executive, while extending - or in Venezuela's case eliminating presidential term limits. In Venezuela the polarization has been drawn along economic lines, whereby Chavez's base
of support continues to be poor Venezuelans. In Bolivia the polarization has been drawn along racial lines: the preamble to the new
Bolivian constitution, approved in January 2009, makes reference to the "disastrous colonial times," a moment in history that
Bolivians of Andean-descent particularly lament. Those regions in Bolivia with the most people of European or mixed descent have
consistently voted for increased provincial autonomy and against the constitutional changes proposed by President Morales.
Perhaps due to its sweeping changes, the new Constitution was rejected by four of Bolivia's nine provinces. n2 Like Bolivia, Latin
America is still searching for its identity.
[*191] Traditionally the U.S. has projected its influence by using varying

combinations of hard and soft power. It has been a long time since the U nited States
last sponsored or supported military action in Latin America, and although highly contextdependent, it is very likely that Latin American citizens and their governments would view any
overt display of American hard power in the region negatively. n3 One can only imagine the
fodder an American military excursion into Latin America would provide for a leader like Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, or Evo Morales
of Bolivia. Soft power, on the other hand, can win over people and governments without

resorting to coercion, but is limited by other factors.
The key to soft power is not simply a strong military, though having one helps, but rather an
enduring sense of legitimacy that can then be projected across the globe to
advance particular policies. The key to this legitimacy is a good image and a
reputation as a responsible actor on the global and regional stage. A good
reputation and image can go a long way toward generating goodwill, which
ultimately will help the U.S. when it tries to sell unpopular ideas and reforms in
the region. n4

S. n118 Even despite the current financial crisis." These are organisms that. leadership and cooperation. To be sure. not just Latin America's leaders." But now the tables have turned.S. but will increasingly have to make room for a new player. n8 In short. environmental scientists seek out "keystone species. n6 As a result of its continuing tensions with Havana. will remain the major powerbroker in the Americas for decades to come. and Latin America. America's reputation [*192] in the region has suffered. if it wants to repair America's image in the region. American clout correspondingly decreases in terms of relative power. had to pass the Cuba "litmus test. Washington will have to rely more heavily on diplomatic initiatives that shore up credibility rather than simply economic incentives and disincentives. n117 In 2000. but also win over new allies. the U. or barometers of. US influence in Latin America is key to prevent Chinese crowd in – the impact is cyber war Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. but particularly in Latin America. such as bilateral trade agreements . as well as political and economic exchanges. not lectures. but in 2007.S. as has its ability to deal with other countries. and by 2008 total trade was valued at $ 140 billion. n115 American disinterest in Latin America has convinced many countries to adopt a "Pacific view. Costa Rica dropped its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. with an annual trade growth of 30% since 2001.S. and repair America's image. The Chinese government has invested a tremendous amount of soft power in Latin America . having disproportionately dominated Washington's policy toward the region for decades.S. earn respect. China quickly displaced the United States as that country's largest export market.In order to effectively employ soft power in Latin America. n116 After signing a free trade agreement with Chile. as Brazil's biggest trading partner. Washington will have to not only strengthen its existing relationships in the region. the entire system's stability . and the Obama Administration. but also the Latin American people. despite their small size. function as lynchpins for. Cuba. Given this diminishing economic position. despite its size and isolation. n7 For fifty years. in regions all around the world. Working with other nations to address these challenges is the best way to shore up legitimacy. every country in Latin America is a potential friend. cross-cultural educational exchanges. must repair its image by going on a diplomatic offensive and reminding. is a keystone nation in Latin America. In 2008. Although this proposal focuses heavily on Cuba. will have to pass a Cuba litmus test of its own. who look to us for "ideas and solutions." n5 When analyzing ecosystems. a move heavily courted by Chinese officials. In 2007. of the important relationship between the U. warming relations with Cuba would have a reverberating effect throughout Latin America. n120 As China's role in Latin America increases. China's interest in Latin America is also based on its increasingly assertive global political agenda. . trade between China and Latin America is likely to grow during the next five years. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The absence of a strong American presence over the last eight years has also given China the opportunity to step in as a major player. China also [*224] recently displaced the U. the U. It charts China's growing relationship with Latin America and promises increased cooperation in scientific and technological research. America must once again be admired if we are going to expect other countries to follow our example.S. that number had increased to $ 102 billion. President Hu rewarded Costa Rica's new policy by visiting San Jose and signing a free trade agreement in 2010. n119 China also timed the release of a new policy paper on Sino-Latin American relations to coincide with President Hu's most recent trip to the region." whereby China steps in to fill the gap left by America's absence. where it is now the continent's third largest trading partner. and would go a long way toward creating goodwill. Latin American governments that hoped to endear themselves to the U. trade between China and Latin America hovered around $ 13 billion. To that end. both economically and politically. Many of the problems facing Latin America today cannot be addressed in the absence of U.S.

dyadic and national levels. Economic decline causes global war Royal 10 (Jedediah. n123 Moreover. as well as half its annual output of nickel.(7B) China's Strategic Interest in Cuba China's presence in Cuba is rather significant: after Venezuela. FBI. p. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. n124 Another former Soviet base in Bejucal may now also house both Cuban and Chinese intelligence analysts. but also to invest $ 80 million in the island's health industry. who seek new ways to obtain sensitive government or proprietary information. telecommunications. Congressional Testimony to the Subcommittee on Crime in the House and the Senate Subcommittee on Criminal Justice Oversight. which begs the question: what is China getting in return for all this assistance? If China is cooperating with Cuban intelligence to spy on the United States. And that dependence makes them vulnerable to an attack which . Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent states. 213-215) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major.S.000 tons of Cuban sugar. it is also a national security problem. China purchases over 400. the only thing standing between Beijing's re-appropriation of Taipei is Washington. exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. including almost all of the computers. which is Cuba's top export. Federal News Service.-Sino relations. As such. l/n) And this is not just a criminal problem. Economics of War and Peace: Economic. Separately. transportation and government operations -. Legal and Political Perspectives. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one preeminent leader to the next.and by that I mean those services that are vital to our economy and to our national security. Goldsmith and Brauer. who are bent on attacking U. on a dyadic level. An increased Chinese presence in Cuba might be a strategic move by Beijing to later leverage their presence on the island for a change in America's Taiwan policy. Development of such capabilities may already be happening. 1995). came from China. China is neurotic about the functional American presence in Taiwan and has made its intentions for the island known to everyone. could deny service on a very broad scale. 2/29. although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”.S. China has a huge presence at Lourdes. a former Soviet espionage base just outside of Havana. 2000 (Michael. China will have a stake in Cuba. n125 But China's leadership is pragmatic. which can be used in tandem with cyber and communications warfare against Washington. if successful.S. such as electrical power. where in 2004 Hu Jintao visited and confirmed that most of the technology housed there. 1999). Second. Several notable contributions follow. This is because our nation's critical infrastructures -. interests. Department of Defense. n121 In fact. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour . Cyber-attack would destroys the US economy Vatis. not ideological. China is Cuba's second-largest trading partner with $ 2. n122 In 2008. Copeland's (1996. Ed. First.3 billion worth of goods exchanged. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U. on the systemic level. Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed to not only defer for ten years some of Cuba's debt payments. Alternatively. China has an incentive to develop technological capabilities in Cuba. The same basic types of cyber attacks that therefore have become attractive to criminals are also attractive to foreign intelligence services . “Economic Integration. a greater American presence on the island would be needed to fully understand the scope of this rather disturbing operation.are now all dependent on computer technology for their very operations. In the unlikely event of hostile engagement with the United States. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic. medium and small powers. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. and also to terrorists and hostile foreign nations. on a visit to Cuba. as long as Taiwan is a [*225] thorny issue for U. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Feaver.

He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. Furthermore. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis [*195] Third. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic. Latin America's importance to the United States is growing by the day. and thus weak Presidential popularity. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. (Blomberg & Hess.-Cuba relations is obviously of smaller import than many other issues currently affecting the world (i. If the state were to collapse. proliferation of weapons of mass destruction). face a humanitarian crisis. and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other. experience a massive migration to Florida.S. p. Moreover. The plan leads to broader cooperation and influence in the region and globally Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. the likelihood for conflict increases. Washington must find a way to cooperate with its neighbors. In summary. which in turn returns the favour. as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. the threat is nevertheless real. 2002. which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Hess. but could potentially lead to a disproportionately high return by making regional cooperation more likely.e.-Latin America relationship. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict. While the issue of U.S.5 This implied connection between integration.. when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. recent economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. policy toward Cuba as the most glaring symbol of its historic inability to constructively engage the region. the island could plunge into civil war. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. the former should be pursued with an unprecedented vigor. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States.-Cuban relationship would mean a healthier U.S. if the expectations of future trade decline. climate change. However. Although the chances of a post-Castro Cuba becoming a failed state are slim. a new . Gelpi (1997). particularly during periods of economic downturn. Wang (1996). the Obama Administration ignores Latin America at its own peril. 2004). Aside from the strategic importance of this issue. who generally view U. and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states.4 Third. "Diversionary theory" suggests that. or endure a combination of each. dyadic and national levels.of states. n20 In order to confront any of the major world issues facing the United States. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. and cannot be overstated. They write: The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. addressing these concerns might also prevent more serious problems in the future. Hess. the ailing economy. DeRouen (1995). sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. addressing it would also involve correspondingly less effort than those issues. & Weerapana. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. Miller (1999). However. These three reasons combine for a perfect storm: to the extent that a healthy U. one that has been absent for the last fifty years.S. crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. become a major drug trafficking center. and Blomberg.S.

There is no doubt that America's diminished image in Latin America means that it will face additional difficulty when trying to accomplish its regional goals.¶ Mexico of emerging economies¶ in various international financial agencies.e.-Cuban policy should embrace not only America's uncanny ability to reinvent itself. “Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America. this year.¶ Although US and Latin American interests do not always converge¶ on non-proliferation questions. the main proliferation challenges today are found in developing¶ and unstable parts of the world. In recent years it has become far more active on global ¶ issues of concern to the United States. including the World Bank ¶ and the International Monetary Fund. Because of this.¶ Brazil has the broadest international presence and influence of any Latin¶ American nation.¶ Latin Americans are taking more active leadership on drug policy in the¶ hemisphere and could become increasingly influential in global discussions ¶ of drug strategies.¶  Many countries in the region give priority to climate change challenges. it should support coordination on the presumption¶ of shared interests on a critical policy challenge . will host Rio+20. the United States should seek greater¶ cooperation and consultation with Brazil. the environment. Mexico. Mexico¶ The United States is handicapped by its inability to devise a climate¶ change policy. Washington must restore its heavily damaged image and regain its place as the region's trendsetter and leader. 2012 (IAD is a think tank hosting 100 leaders and experts from the US and Latin America. This cooperation and influence is key to solve existential crisis Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report.¶ The importance of the Amazon basin to worldwide climate concerns¶ gives Brazil and five other South American nations a special role to play. The Eight Recommendations found in this proposal are suggestions that the Obama Administration should consider as it moves to reengage Latin America. Latin America has the¶ opportunity to participate more actively in nonproliferation efforts. Brazil organized the first-ever global ¶ environmental meeting in 1992 and. ¶ environmental.¶ already has assumed a prominent position on climate change and ¶ is active in global policy debates. Although the United States and Latin America¶ are often at odds on drug policy. trade. . Washington has worked with Brazil ¶ and other Latin American countries to raise the profile In addition to economic and financial matters. Online: http://www. and security issues. it is important¶ that the United States and the region increase their attention to reshaping¶ regional institutions to better align them with current realities and ¶ challenges and to make them more effective.pdf) Many of the issues on the hemispheric agenda carry critical global ¶ dimensions. south-south connections¶ are crucial. and ¶ the Middle East uprisings. more effective¶ approach to the problem. hosted the second international meeting on climate change in Cancún in ¶ 2010. labor and human rights).. Any new U. and other countries of¶ the region in world forums addressing shared interests . n21 To address the issues confronting the United States vis-a-vis Latin America (i. Resolving America's "Cuba problem" is a low-cost/high-reward strategy that would inject new energy and credibility into America's image.¶ Argentina. Part of America's greatness is its ability to inspire practical solutions in people. they align on some related goals .¶ This may position them as a voice in international debates on this topic. Brazil could play a pivotal role. drugs. and there is growing need for decisions about¶ priorities and objectives.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL. The United States and Brazil have ¶ clashed over such issues as Iran’s nuclear program. such as in the World Trade Organization and the G-20 (Mexico. but also the pragmatism that has made America so great to begin with. The hemisphere’s institutional¶ architecture is in great flux.S. In that context. but they have cooperated when their interests ¶ converged. For¶ example. Brazil and other Latin¶ American nations are assuming enhanced roles on an array of global political.” April. non-proliferation.thedialogue. and in efforts to¶ rebuild and provide security for Haiti.¶ Even as Latin America expands its global reach and presence. they have mutual interests and goals¶ that should allow consultation and collaboration on a new. as well as in the leakage—or transfer¶ of nuclear materials—to terrorists. and Canada also participate in the G-20). Still.and comprehensive policy toward Cuba can help prevent these nightmare scenarios from materializing. Several for which US and Latin¶ American cooperation could become increasingly important include:¶  As the world’s lone nuclear-weapons-free region.

economic. In particular. .9 Should the U.¶ and integration . Treasurer of the American Political Science Association. representatives from American companies.S. oil. is in need of significant repair and modernization (its many energy projects notwithstanding). that objective . the policy tools available to deal with energy supply disruptions are increasingly inadequate. has declined. a movement toward energy cooperation and development with Cuba is consistent with. because U. and the overall dismal state of the global economy create a setting of instability and uncertainty that requires close attention to the national security interests of the United States vis-à-vis energy. government and the Obama administration see fit to shift its policy so as to allow broader participation of American academics and practitioners in the energy field to attend conferences and meet with Cuban energy officials. Mexico and Venezuela. and allow U. Florida International University. energy experts on the technical acumen and capability of Cuban energy officials has been overwhelmingly positive .S. trade organizations. more flexible view on the quest for resources—a view that does not shun a source from a potential strategic partner for purely political reasons. U. not to mention since 2008. too.¶ The United States and Cuba will have a unique opportunity to employ a highly educated and competent cadre of Cuban engineers and technicians to work in critical areas of the energy sector.S.S. and discussed across a number of settings where the interested parties are now familiar with and well versed in the agendas and opportunities that exist in this arena. Now. construction. The Obama administration has signaled that it wants to reinvigorate inter-American cooperation venture partners on the island. and may be central to. 2010. policy to allow investment and assistance in Cuba’s energy sector are a precondition for international entities to make significant investments . the opportunity to advance relations in the energy arena appears to be ripe. ¶ The energy-security environment for the United States is at a critical juncture. oil technologies. universities. The Cubans have accumulated experience and training from past energy cooperation projects and exchanges in Cuba. decisionmakers must look dispassionately at potential energy partners in terms of the role they might play in meeting political. there is a significant lack of trust and confidence between the United States and Cuba. it may pave the way to establishing much-needed familiarity and confidence across these communities . Since 2004. energy security and satisfying energy demand.S. and engineering firms to subcontract work to an emerging class of Cuban firms specializing in these areas.S. oil and gas industry and using state-of-the. and geostrategic objectives of U. Delaying work on many of these projects increases costs. In public discussions.S.SCENARIO TWO: HARD POWER: Lifting the embargo is essential to US-Cuba oil cooperation – key to solve independence from Middle East oil Benjamin-Alvadaro 10 – Jonathan Benjamin-Alvadaro. It also stands to reason that the lion’s Changes in U. Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha. the variability of weather patterns. Venezuela. The critical need to improve the integrity of the U. The vagaries of the politics in the region. This will deploy an underused segment of the Cuban workforce. Anecdotal evidence suggests that these contacts and exchanges have been wildly successful because of the Cubans’ high level of competence and strong work ethic. and the supporting energy infrastructure in both countries is in need of significant revitalization. and think tanks have had the opportunity to meet with Cuban energy officials.S. even if the United States were to choose to exploit all of its domestic energy resources.art U.S. because deterioration of the infrastructure continues and eventually pushes up the cost of renovation and replacement. directly and indirectly.S. Report for the Cuban Research Institute. The productive capacity of two of the United States’ largest oil suppliers. The scope and objectives of Cuban energy development schemes have been disseminated. dissected. after fifty years of enmity.when Fidel Castro officially stepped aside as Cuba’s president. energy independence is not attainable. yet this change share of the financial burden of upgrading Cuba’s energy infrastructure will fall to the United States.S. This is plain from the almost quaint maintenance of a sanctions regime that seeks to isolate Cuba economically and politically but hardly reflects the dramatic changes that have occurred on the island since 1991. and other countries in the region. Cuba’s energy infrastructure. energy supply requires a much broader. The assessment from U. it would remain dependent on oil imports to meet its existing and future demand. Mexico. the price tag is estimated to be in the billions of dollars. Brookings Institution book. The Cubans have gained invaluable knowledge and experience through the operation and construction of energy facilities in collaboration with their joint- The United States possesses few options when it comes to balancing the various risks to U. energy security . Cuban energy authorities have made it clear that their preferred energy development scenario includes working closely with the U. “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation” Conclusion and Recommendations Undoubtedly. PhD. and the United States needs to articulate a new vision of how best to manage international energy interdependence. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO.

These constraints also affect foreign firms seeking to do business in Cuba because of the threat of penalties if any of these firms use technology containing more than 10 percent of proscribed U.S.S. foreign policy for the near and long term. The U. and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Compare it to a country such as China. their economies are growing faster than ours. and logistical resources in Cuba that simultaneously addresses Petrocaribe objectives. Oil independence strengthens U.S.S. Japan for example imports 98 percent of its oil. and economic problems. 2011. In modern .currently. Mexico and a handful of other friendly countries such as Brazil. China imports much of its oil and natural gas. increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another. November 1. cooperation with Cuba in energy just may create an opportunity for the United States to improve its portion of the needed investment capital to undertake this colossal effort. American private investment and U.S. it also means a new day for the U. India. which will then potentially cut into the returns from such undertakings.com/posts/2011/11/01/is_this_group_think_or_is_the_us_a bout_to_be_energy_independent?wpisrc=obinsite What could undermine the prognoses is if the result is relatively low oil prices. which is going to be overwhelmingly dependent on energy imports. not to mention metals. Crooks finds Even if the most optimistic hopes are not fulfilled.implies a large American footprint. relations with Venezuela. “Is this group think. Even though countries such as China. Still.S. perhaps.¶ I was left puzzled by that formulation of how the world works -. diversifies regional refining capacity. These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world. strategic energy policy under a set of shifting political and economic environmental conditions in Cuba and its implications for U. is in a much stronger position. and a resumption of America's gluttonous gasoline appetite. was a superpower in the 20th century but won't be in the 21st doesn't hold up so well now.S. the higher the cost to all the investors.foreignpolicy. and undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of escalation. and Brazil have profound political.since oil is fungible and can be bought freely by anyone with the money.” online: http://www.¶ U. " U. it's hard to write off an economy that has these two pillars of long-term strength.S. if it can demonstrate that it can serve as a partner (or at a minimum. This does not mean that the United States has to dismantle the nearly fiftyyear-old embargo against Cuba. and this could alter the global distribution of power. and adds storage and transit capabilities while enhancing regional cooperation and integration modalities. The U. or is the U. social. which would erode millions of barrels of oil a day.S. Iraq. as a global superpower :¶ The notion that the solace in the volumes further afield. Because the policies can be considered works-in-progress. Crooks writes. So US global leadership is vital to protecting the globe from wars Khalilzad 11 – Zalmay Khalilzad. a supporter) of the Petrocaribe energy consortium. as it has in the case of food and medicine sales to Cuba. If U. http://oilandglory. ¶ This discussion is intended to help distill understanding of U. The closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify geopolitical competition among major powers . If we don’t get our economic house in order. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. technologies needed for oil and gas exploration and production. policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow. downstream. imports oil only from Canada. but not readily forever.S." he one can imagine a future in which the U.nationalreview. “The Economy and National Security.S. about to be energy-independent?”. we have seen a parade of relatively resource-poor nations carve out significant global economic and geopolitical places for themselves over the decades."¶ But what does this mean in the big picture? First. but still in the Western Hemisphere: " writes. trade deficit. The United States could provide much-needed additional investment capital in the development of upstream. crude oil imports account for 44 percent of the U. Trade and investment in the energy sector in Cuba have been severely constrained by the conditions of the embargo placed on the Cuban regime. stands an excellent chance of access to both. energy dependence is a severe handicap for being able to do that.S. His reply:¶ Superpower status really does depend over time on lots of abilities to deliver public goods for a wide variety of others. the United States ambassador to Afghanistan. February 8.S.S. why would relative American power abruptly reverse course compared with China's simply because one has and the other lacks oil ? I emailed Morse to find out. But according to Citigroup oil economist Edward Morse (quoted by Crooks). it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge. we risk a new era of multi-polarity. America's trade balance would improve considerably -. leadership LeVine 11 Steve LeVine is a writer for Foreign Policy. 2011. China might or might not have access to cheap energy feedstocks and to virtual self-sufficiency . but the United States will have to make special provisions that create commercial and trade openings for energy development that serve its broad geostrategic and national security goals. government assistance will constitute a large The longer that work is delayed. ¶ The stakes are high. demographic. an understanding of possible outcomes is important to those crafting future policy and making changes in the policymaking milieu.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-securityzalmay-khalilzad We face this domestic challenge while other major powers are experiencing rapid economic growth. To be sure one can do it for a long period of time.

and ballistic missiles. Even as cooperative economic ties in the region have grown. at denying the United States access to the seas around China. Japan. with their competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers. weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the U nited States. Still. cruise. there would be a heightened possibility of arms races. miscalculation . Beijing’s economic rise has enabled a dramatic military buildup focused on acquisitions of naval. hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions. Without an American security blanket. Under this scenario. the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U. and Southeast Asian states. long-range stealth aircraft. . or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict .history. China’s expansive territorial claims — and provocative statements and actions following crises in Korea and incidents at sea — have roiled its relations with South Korea.S. India. leadership .¶ American retrenchment could have devastating consequences .¶ As rival powers rise. ultimately. multi-polar systems have been unstable. regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats. By contrast. China’s strategic modernization is aimed. in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers. Alternatively. Either way. Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars. and anti-satellite capabilities. the United States is the most significant barrier facing Chinese hegemony and aggression. Asia in particular is likely to emerge as a zone of great-power competition.

and drug trafficking can only be managed through forms of multilateral cooperation that depend on America's ability to persuade other nations. Terrorism itself cannot be defeated by force alone. security. Washington is simply less able to persuade others. the White House has been unable to lead a multinational effort to halt Iran's nuclear program. Force is not a long-term solution. Instead. to play a major staging role. lead. influence.stan. or elimination-requires the help of others.. With America's image declining in nations like Thailand and Pakistan. disease. proliferation. “The Decline of American Soft Power. in part because America's image in Turkey was so poor. it magni.S. containment. now more than ever. 284) Why should the United States care that some criticize its policies and others resent its power? Following U.Soft Power – General Impacts Soft Power is key to solving competitiveness. legitimate broker in the talks. the transnational nature of the problems the United States faces defies unilateral solutions. the growing attractiveness of China and Europe. As Charles Krauthammer wrote. visiting scholar in the Carnegie Endowment’s China Program. with a decline in soft power. Washington must increasingly resort to the other option Nye discusses-force. With foreign governments and publics suspicious of American policy. U. can quickly become a plague on the United States' house. pg. human trafficking. and freedom of movement-against it. senior fellow at CSIS. so is followership. 419. Thus. terrorism. .” The Battle for Hearts and Minds: edited by Alexander T. In addition. outbreak of disease. and WMD threats. Blinken 03 (Antony J. military success in Afghani. trouble on the far side of the planet. These include the drain in foreign talent coming to the United States. . ership is essential to meet these threats successfully.” Current History. More than ever before. Washington has had to allow China to play a central role. During the war itself. the United States has failed to obtain significant participation from all but a handful of major nations. war. concluding that unilateral might makes right. "We made it plain that even if no one followed us. partly because few Asian states view the United States as a neutral. “Winning the War of Ideas. Globalization is erasing borders that once protected the United States. successfully applied. and drug trafficking. such as economic disaster. In the run-up to the Iraq War. again in part because of America's negative image in countries ranging from India to Germany In attempts to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons. and the possibility that anti-US sentiment will make it easier for terrorist groups to recruit. nontraditional security threats such as disease. so Washington resorts to quiet arm-twisting and blandishments to obtain counterterror concessions. we would go it alone.S. as demonstrated on September 11. Surprise: others followed. Newer. is tempting. silencing critics and creating a bandwagon effect among friends. the potential backlash against American companies. proquest. in addition to rooting out and destroying individual militant cells. US leadership is key to solving the economy. Rogue states. and religious fanatics use the nation's very strengths-its openness. or the threat of force. Vol. But because we have demonstrated astonishing military power and the will to de. accessed 07/10/07 A broad decline in soft power has many practical implications. advanced technology. and instead has had to resort to threatening sanctions at the United Nations or even the possibility of strikes against Iran.S.S.fend vital American interests. 104. outlaw actors.fies U. the Bush administration could not convince Turkey. Dec 2005. 686. Iss.. disease. Not because they love us. unilaterally if necessary. a longtime US ally. a fact that even the White House recognizes. human trafficking. pg. while empowering its enemies. Not because we have embraced multilateralism. or theft of a weapon of mass destruction. The 2002 National security Strategy emphasizes that winning the war on terror requires the United States to lead a battle of ideas against the ideological roots of terrorism."2 Military power remains the foundation of U. J. however. however. Lennon. it is harder for leaders in these countries to openly embrace counterterrorism cooperation with the United States. Whatever response the United States chooses-engagement. Joshua Kurlantzick.

professor and Robert M. Bush School of Government and Public Service. This could always change. sharing between the United States and China is unlikely to work for no U. Spring) It is important to recognize at the outset two key points about United States strategy and the potential costs and benefits for the United States in a changing security environment. economic and demographic challenges.S. for the country faces formidable environmental. not to mention a rival United States that shows no sign of lapsing into terminal decline despite its current economic travails . The Euro-Atlantic world had a long run of global dominance. particularly among the elites. First. just as China wouldn’t if the roles were reversed. W. Beijing may have to confront the prospect of a resurgent Washington determined to reassert its strategic interests. would voluntarily relinquish power to China. The Global Power Shift from West to East. Graduate Student in the PhD Program in Political Science . However. Gates Chair in National Security at Texas A & M University’s George H. First. administration. have embraced the notion of American exceptionalism with such fervor that they can’t discern the world transformation occurring before their eyes.AT: Heg Bad – Hard Power Inevitable Decline makes all their turns worse. American elites must come to grips with the fact that the West does not enjoy a predestined supremacy in international politics that is locked into the future for an indeterminate period of time. and U.the US won’t just give up Layne June 2012 (Chris. grand strategy will have to change with it. Sooner than it thinks. lexis) THE CONSTELLATION of world power is changing. Nor is it guaranteed to last. Pax Americana also is winding down. regardless of its political complexion. The problem is that many Americans. Even Layne agrees. China’s new great-power status is hardly untrammeled. professor of international security and director of the Institute for International Security and Development at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. The future is more likely to be shaped by the East. Second. but it is coming to an end. An Asian Security Standoff. while popular in some segments of academia. The United States can manage this relative decline effectively over the next couple of decades only if it first acknowledges the fundamental reality of decline .International Relations at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.C. While superficially appealing because it holds out the prospect of a peaceful transition to a new international order.S. resource. The National Interest. Orbis. The National Interest. it is a given that the United States will define its interests globally and pursue a strategy that requires capable military forces able to project power around the world. lexis) What of the argument that America should accept the inevitable and share power with China as an equal? Paralleling the G-2 would be an Asia-2.24 . Mike.Philadelphia. the United States is very likely to remain fully engaged in global affairs.US will be more violent and desperate post-decline Dupont June 2012 (Alan. Because ‘‘indirect’’ counter-strategies are the rational choice for actors facing a strong state’s power projection. Australia. All their turns are inevitable .¶ At the same time. power two reasons. at present. irregular/asymmetric threats are inevitable given America’s role in the global order. Advocates of restraint or global withdrawal. remain on the margins of policy debates in Washington D. Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. allowing Beijing and Washington to divide the region into spheres of influence in much the same way as the United States and the Soviet Union managed a politically bifurcated Europe during the early part of the Cold War. of course.Zero Chances of willful US restraint – we’ll inevitably be engaged globally – the only question is effectiveness Shalmon and Horowitz 09 (Dan.

feeding its ambitions and triggering a spiral of escalating demands. the dominant states are often either reluctant to make concessions. This is why periods of transition. The National Interest.” The fact that the U. Like Japan in the late nineteenth century. or Germany at the turn of the twentieth. rising powers feel constrained.Transition  War Transition from US dominance causes conflict. have so often been marked by war. Sometimes the reason clearly lies in the demands of the rising state. This. international institutions and hierarchies of prestige that were put in place when they were still relatively weak. an aggressor may have ambitions that are so extensive as to be impossible for the status quo powers to satisfy without effectively consigning themselves to servitude or committing national suicide.S. As far back as the fifth century BC the great Greek historian Thucydides began his study of the Peloponnesian War with the deceptively simple observation that the war’s deepest. is among the oldest in recorded history. This means that those in ascendance typically attempt not only to secure their borders but also to reach out beyond them. But these countries are not just any two great powers: Since the end of the Cold War the United States has been the richest and most powerful nation in the world. lexis) THE UNITED States and the People’s Republic of China are locked in a quiet but increasingly intense struggle for power and influence. principal beneficiaries and main defenders of any existing international system. truest cause was “the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta. At least insofar as the dominant powers are concerned. in general. Throughout history. with its Shakespearean overtones of youth and age. ascendant states typically feel impelled to challenge territorial boundaries. and. Successful policies of appeasement are conceivable in theory but in practice have proven devilishly difficult to implement. to have what they consider to be their rightful say in the affairs of their region and of the wider world. to protect their citizens far from home.. its leaders generally define their interests more expansively and seek a greater degree of influence over what is going on around them. by contrast. this story line. these efforts have almost always ended in failure. Even when the demands being made of them are less onerous. dominant powers (or a coalition of status quo states) have occasionally tried to attack and destroy a competitor before it can grow strong enough to become a threat. Recognizing the growing threat to their position. is what brings them into conflict with the established great powers —the so-called status quo states—who are the architects. the nascent SinoAmerican rivalry is not merely the result of misperceptions or mistaken policies. professor of politics and international affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University. it is driven instead by forces that are deeply rooted in the shifting structure of the international system and in the very different domestic political regimes of the two Pacific powers. even cheated. when a new. But however sincere. is simply no surprise.perception of weakness spurs war. Aaron L. China is. to promulgate their religious or ideological beliefs. relations between dominant and rising states have been uneasy—and often violent. As a nation’s capabilities grow. Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics. but around the world. .-China relationship is competitive. to defend their foreign friends and allies. As they begin to assert themselves. rising states tend to be troublemakers. Others—hoping to avoid war—have taken the opposite approach: attempting to appease potential challengers . taking steps to ensure access to markets. of course. thereby fueling the frustrations and resentments of the rising power. not only in Asia.AT: Heg Bad . As was true of Adolf Hitler’s Germany. The stakes are about as high as they can get. ascending power begins to overtake the previously dominant state. they look for ways to satisfy their demands and ambitions and seek to incorporate them peacefully into the existing international order. Indeed. Established powers tend to regard themselves as the defenders of an international order that they helped to create and from which they continue to benefit. by the status quo and struggle against it to take what they think is rightfully theirs.” but China is fast gaining ground. And in spite of what many earnest and well-intentioned commentators seem to believe. vigor and decline. materials and transportation routes. then. America is still “number one. and the potential for conflict particularly fraught.history proves Friedberg 2011 (July/August. rising powers want their place in the sun . The resulting clash of interests between the two sides has seldom been resolved peacefully . the state whose capabilities have been growing most rapidly. or too eager to do so.

In short. “A World without Power”. increasingly confined to a few Page 5 strategic cities such as Kabul and Pristina. globalization—the integration of world markets for commodities. The trouble is. visit. too. With ease. the free flow of destructive technology empowers both criminal organizations and terrorist cells. that this Dark Age would be an altogether more dangerous one than the Dark Age of the ninth century. now human societies depend not merely on freshwater and the harvest but also on supplies of fossil fuels that are known to be finite. These are the Dark Age experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving. though with some important and troubling differences. For the world is much more populous—roughly 20 times more—so friction between the world's disparate “tribes” is bound to be more frequent. increasing trans-Atlantic tensions over the Middle East to the breaking point. By contrast. Meanwhile. aircraft carriers. as Europe's Muslim enclaves grew. Religious revivals. or do business.Heg Solves War Collapse of US hegemony causes a global power vacuum resulting in nuclear war Ferguson 04 professor of history at New York University's Stern School of Business and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University (Niall. some. say. An economic meltdown in China would plunge the Communist system into crisis. and the World Trade Organization (formerly the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) each considers itself in some way representative of the “international community. leadership after the Second World War? The United Nations. in fact. so it is now possible not just to sack a city but to obliterate it. Certainly. But what of the growing pretensions to autonomy of the supranational bodies created under U. Incipient anarchy. . the World Bank. wherever they choose. The reversal of globalization— which a new Dark Age would produce—would certainly lead to economic stagnation and even depression. labor. And that is also true today. and capital—has raised living standards throughout the world. of course. The reality. it would inevitably become a less open society. A coming retreat into fortified cities. For more than two decades. nor an all-embracing Empire of Heaven. All the empires claimed to rule the world.S. Western investors would lose out and conclude that lower returns at home are preferable to the risks of default abroad. humanity has entered an era characterized as much by disintegration as integration. These groups can operate. With the end of states' monopoly on the means of violence and the collapse of their control over channels of communication. one can imagine the world's established powers—the United States. So what is left? Waning empires. from Hamburg to Gaza. unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires. Islamist extremists' infiltration of the EU would become irreversible. The defining characteristic of our age is not a shift of power upward to supranational institutions.” Surely their aspirations to global governance are fundamentally different from the spirit of the Dark Ages? Yet universal claims were also an integral part of the rhetoric of that era. the writ of the international community is not global at all. and China—retreating into their own regional spheres of influence . less hospitable for foreigners seeking to work. Technology has transformed production. The worst effects of the new Dark Age would be felt on the edges of the waning great powers. unaware of the existence of other civilizations. If free flows of information and of means of production empower multinational corporations and nongovernmental organizations (as well as evangelistic religious cults of all denominations). maybe even believed that they did. Europe. however.AT: Heg Bad . The reality was political fragmentation. but downward. Technology has upgraded destruction. As the United States sought to protect itself after a second September 11 devastates. was not a global Christendom. It is. terrorists could disrupt the freedom of the seas. targeting oil tankers. Houston or Chicago. except where countries have shut themselves off from the process through tyranny or civil war. the International Monetary Fund. it seems. The wealthiest ports of the global economy—from New York to Rotterdam to Shanghai—would become the targets of plunderers and pirates. and cruise liners. Foreign Policy ) Could an apolar world today produce an era reminiscent of the age of Alfred? It could. it is the nonstate actors who truly wield global power—including both the monks and the Vikings of our time. while Western nations frantically concentrated on making their airports secure.

the great plagues of AIDS and malaria would continue their deadly work. limited nuclear wars could devastate numerous regions. who would wish to leave their privately guarded safe havens to go there? For all these reasons. In Latin America. wretchedly poor citizens would seek solace in Evangelical Christianity imported by U. RAND Corporation. On balance. The alternative to unipolarity would not be multipolarity at all. or even a return to the good old balance of power. the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -. but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. .Meanwhile. In Africa. religious orders . It would be apolarity—a global vacuum of power. free markets. Rand Corporation 1995 (Zalmay Khalilzad. The few remaining solvent airlines would simply suspend services to many cities in these continents.2. First. perhaps ending catastrophically in the Middle East.S. the prospect of an apolar world should frighten us today a great deal more than it frightened the heirs of Charlemagne.S. Lexis. the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival. U. Be careful what you wish for. and the rule of law. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system. including a global nuclear exchange. such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems. such as nuclear proliferation. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself. Spring 1995. this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. U. enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers. and low-level conflicts. “Losing the Moment?” The Washington Quarterly 18. Second. beginning in the Korean peninsula and Kashmir.) Under the third option. And far more dangerous forces than rival great powers would benefit from such a not-so-new world disorder Lack of hegemony  extinction Khalilzad. threats of regional hegemony by renegade states.S. Finally.democracy. If the United States retreats from global hegemony — its fragile self-image dented by minor setbacks on the imperial frontier—its critics at home and abroad must not pretend that they are ushering in a new era of multipolar harmony.

Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened. increasing respect for human rights. democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United States.org//sub/pubs/deadly/diam_rpt. In addition.S.Heg Solves Democracy Heg promotes democracy Thayer 6 (Bradley A.( n3) So.” National Interest. Rather. “In Defense of Primacy. in general. primacy. appears increasingly endangered. India and Pakistan. the global ecosystem. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. http://www. a robust monetary regime. it is because they are more open. power. and enduring trading partnerships. American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned--between Greece and Turkey. but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood. Today.S. Most of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy. Indonesia and Australia . American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world. Democracy solves extinction Diamond 95 (Larry Diamond. power behind it. popular sovereignty and openness. Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against one another. such as in Darfur. peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power -Rome. open. Indeed they do. once states are governed democratically.AT: Heg Bad . December. Without U. Israel and Egypt. particularly war's worst form: great power wars. PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN THE 1990S.S. Democratic countries form more reliable. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists. most notably France and West Germany. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. accountability. leadership.S. During the Cold War. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U. Democratic governments do not ethnically "cleanse" their own populations . American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism: Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because. The experience of this century offers important lessons. Britain or the United States today. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. Second. liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview. In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for investment.S. They are more environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own citizens. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war. They do not build weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another. 1995. Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one another. p. spreading democracy helps maintain U. who organize to protest the destruction of their environments . Everything we think of when we consider the current international order--free trade. the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics.. with its provisions for legality. the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced. Hoover Institution. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse. power. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies. The very source of life on Earth.html) Nuclear. Prof of Defense and Strategic Studies @ Missouri State University. as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue. Nov/Dec2006 Issue 86. Stanford University. more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U. U. p32-37) Throughout history. growing democratization-is directly linked to U. chemical and biological weapons continue to proliferate. it is important to note what those good things are..carnegie." Consequently. This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests. The first has been a more peaceful world. . As country and western great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it).S. And so. and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency. South Korea and Japan.

Ditto the mea culpas. Hanson: Two considerations: 1) It’s hard (in addition to being shameless). politically speaking. “In Defense of Primacy. India’s borders with both Pakistan and China will heat up. and Russia will continue its energy bullying of Eastern Europe . Iran to get the bomb and begin to threaten ever so insidiously its Gulf neighborhood. retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy. November/December. the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Russia. and it cannot hide from threats. friendship and values are liabilities. as his polls continue to stay below 50 percent. however trivial. it will be 1979 redux. Weakness. the Iranian hostage mess. North Korea. Hanson: Obama is one bow and one apology away from a circus . after a year. Much of diplomacy rests on public perceptions. So the apologies and bows don’t go over well here at home. Iran. — are just waiting to see who’s going to be the first to try Obama — and whether Obama really will be as tenuous as they expect. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom. does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat. poll-wise. or France are no better under Obama — and probably worse — than during the Bush administration. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics. In other words. Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home". whom it will bite or when.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disasterobama/showLastReply Dr. Germany. as regional hegemons. I would expect. Italy. thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half-pledges to defend its interests and allies. Most are starting to see that our relations with Britain. Indeed. Whether they are terrorists.AT: Heg Bad – Heg Solves Deterrence Heg collapse emboldens rogues – it signals weakness Thayer. Hanson: I think all three. Syria. predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. rogue states or rising powers. 2) I think he will drop the reset/“Bush did it” throat-clearing soon. Washington cannot call a "time out". it seems to be a losing trope. Lexis) In contrast. one more will be really toxic. Stanford University) December 2009 “Change. The world can understand a kowtow gaffe to some Saudi royals. BC: Can Obama get any more mileage from his perpetually played “I’m not George W. then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from Causes global wars that escalate – perception is key Victor Davis Hanson (Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution. I think we got off the back of the tiger and now no one quite knows pressuring autonomous former republics to get back in line with some sort of new Russian autocratic commonwealth. wishing to redraw the existing landscape — whether China. Venezuela will probably cook up some scheme to do a punitive border raid into Colombia to apprise South America that U. — do you believe his global repositioning will cause the most damage? Dr. etc. . BC: With what country then — Venezuela.resistnet. Pakistan. To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression. If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States. history shows that threats must be confronted.. but not as part of a deliberate pattern. etc. Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson. Americans hate whining and blamegaming. while insidiously There’s an outside shot that North Korea might do something really stupid near the 38th parallel and China will ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan. the communist inroads in Central America. 06 – Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies.S.” http://www.” National Interest. Iran. Bush” card or is that card past its expiration date? Dr. Venezuela. Missouri State University (Bradley A. for any president to keep scapegoating a prior administration. when we saw the rise of radical Islam. etc . The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics. a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. If he slips once. Disaster. We are now in a great waiting game. in the next three years.

the U.challengers can’t make up the power differential. and military lead over China will be an enduring feature of international relations . PhD candidate at the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences at Columbia. helicopters and aircraft with simple antiaircraft artillery and no early warning radar. Indeed.212 Sixty years ago. even after controlling for numerous material. 71. China projected a huge army into Korea and killed tens of thousands of U. Yes. regardless of the size of their defense budgets.S. Ibid..5 percent. or even declining. economic superiority literally gives the United States “more bang for the buck” – each dollar it spends on the military produces more force than each dollar China spends. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations.” compensating for its technological and organizational inferiority by utilizing asymmetric strategies.S. soldiers. and a greater willingness to bear costs.”207 Figure 3. and trends point toward continued unipolarity Beckley 2012 (Michael. From 1961 to 1968 North Vietnamese and Vietcong units brought down 1.211 It is certainly true. the gap in defense spending likely understates the true military gap because U. In the coming decades. however. Dissertation found on google scholar) More important.S. p. Iraq circa 1991. efforts to counter them. technological.S. Or China might continue to rise in place – steadily improving its capabilities in absolute terms while stagnating. and political factors. as measured by per capita income. None of this should be cause for chest-‐thumping. In a separate study. relative to the United States. weak adversaries can impose significant costs. military has vulnerabilities. But this has always been the case. and integrate individual technologies into cohesive military systems. Conclusion Change is inevitable.700 U.210 There is also reason to doubt the strategic importance of China’s capabilities because the United States may be able to launch effective attacks from positions beyond the reach of Chinese missiles and submarines. because they lack the economic capacity to maintain.Its Sustainable Heg is sustainable. local knowledge.AT: Heg Bad .206 Multivariate regressions suggest that military effectiveness is determined by a country’s level of economic development. that the U.‐2008.209 There are reasons to doubt this claim – the Pentagon is developing sophisticated countermeasures and Chinese writings may purposefully exaggerate PLA capabilities. The PLA may look increasingly respectable on paper. 73. . this growing economic gap is also a growing military gap. China may surge out of its unimpressive condition and close the gap with the United States. 1993-‐2000.S. but evidence of American vulnerability is not the same as evidence of American decline. not a passing moment in time. The Unipolar Era: Why American Power Persists and China’s Rise Is Limited. but it is often incremental and nonlinear.‐denial” capabilities are outpacing U. some experts believe China’s “anti-area. modernize. I found that developing countries systematically fail at warfare. If history is any guide. p. share of the world conventional arms market surged to 68 percent while China’s share dropped below 1. especially in littorals and low-‐altitudes close to enemy territory. China’s defense industry has also fallen further behind : in 2008. As noted earlier. And what the trends suggest is that America’s economic. social. 1993-‐2008 Source: Congressional Research Service. China can “pose problems without catching up.S. an independent task force of more than thirty experts recently found “no evidence to support the notion that China will become a peer military competitor of the United States.208 In particular.20: Share of World Arms Transfer Agreements. say. The best that can be done is to make plans for the future on the basis of present trends. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations. but its performance in battle against the United States would not necessarily be much better than that of. China’s per capita income has declined relative to that of the United States. 2001. but a deeply embedded material condition that will persist for the foreseeable future .…The military balance today and for the foreseeable future strongly favors the United States and its allies.

Russia. The next section considers hegemonic strategies that can soften opposition. primacy appear not to be worried about it. but the outcome was not planned. 61 Levy and Thompson raise the important question of why other states failed to balance against the United States when it was a rising power but not yet a hegemon. This is the figure William Thompson suggests in describing a near-unipolar system. The United States has already moved beyond the absolute threshold.AT: Heg Bad – No Counter Balancing No counterbalancing.maintaining the power gap key to prevent challengers Fiammenghi 2011 (Davide. and other states’ dependence on it for effective action. It may be an exaggeration to suggest that the United States became a hegemon by accident. But the European Union’s share does not amount to even half of the United States’ share of the world total. Ideally. because at this level the sum of all the forces opposing the aspiring hegemon is insufficient to successfully balance it. and is able to reap economic benefits as a result of its hegemonic position. International Security. . postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Politics. only accounts for 5 percent of the world total. Still." 59 It is therefore reasonable to assume that the absolute security threshold is around 45 percent of the military capabilities in the system. there are also economic advantages associated with this privileged position in the security field. . accounting for 18 percent of the world total. History at the University of Bologna.bandwagoning is more likely. . This is the claim that is likely to be the most carefully scrutinized. few will contest that the United States is in a league of its own when it comes to security affairs. it is useful to consider William Wohlforth's admonition: "If balancing were the frictionless. Institutions. the Soviet Union maintained a rough balance with the United States. whereas China. other countries benefiting from U. the country with the second largest share today. Because of the superiority of American military power. 62 Part of the answer lies in the United States' unusual path to primacy.1.S. But such expectations miss the fact that alliance politics always impose costs. primacy. As I will also show in chapter 6. The 2003 invasion of Iraq is a case in point but there are plenty of other examples. Iran. the absolute threshold should represent 50 percent of the capabilities in the system. may not like U. or even Brazil and Pakistan. No balancing – US lead is insurmountable and is growing Carla Norrlof (an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto) 2010 “America’s Global Advantage US Hegemony and International Cooperation” p. 63 U. Without even throwing the technological sophistication of American weaponry (or the collective action problems that many states confront when deciding to act in the national interest) into the balance. But what about the economic realm? The real test is whether the United States still towers over other countries economically. The European Union. costless activity assumed in some balance-of-power theories. Moreover. The Security Curve and the Structure of International Politics. the United States is by far the largest military spender and has actually United States’ lead over its nearest competitor is actually stronger in the security arena than it was in 1988 . 60 In this light. . 64 The extraordinarily wide gap in capabilities created by the fall of the Soviet Union left other states with little choice but to acquiesce. but they lack the capabilities to challenge it. primacy resulted from the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union. the absence of balancing against the United States today appears less puzzling. Countries such as China. For decades. the absolute security threshold should not pose the same problem because of the logical limits in determining it. the United States faces very few constraints in the security arena . on the other hand.S. making balancing futile. 65 Meanwhile. 19 As illustrated in table 2. then the unipolar power would need more than 50 percent of the capabilities in the great power system to stave off a counterpoise. the euro area still accounts for a lower share today than did the Soviet Union in 1988. A Neorealist Synthesis. the Soviet Union was the closest rival in 1988. and Syria. lexis) In principle. it is clear that the United States is peerless in the security sphere and has strengthened its lead in the last two decades. Spring. Counting coalitions as potential balancers. Although some question the utility of armed force. accounts for a larger share than did the Soviet Union in 1988 .S. The increased its share of world military spending in the last twenty years.

AT: Heg Bad – Link Turn Low US soft power leads to an increase in unilateralism. One recent bipartisan report on American diplomacy concluded as much. warning that if the "downward spiral [in diplomacy] is not reversed. pg. and potentially makes the United States more likely to resort to force rather than persuasion to meet American objectives. Even without China on the scene."34 . 194) This unpopularity matters. the prospect of relying on military force to protect US national interests will increase. Charm Offensive. America's declining popularity decreases Washington's soft power. Kurlantzick 07 (Joshua. fellow at the USC School of Public Diplomacy and the Pacific Council on International Policy and previous foreign editor at The New Republic.

technology transfer and information sharing between these neighboring states but it possibly enhances the energy security of both states. inasmuch as American corporations. design and implement energy development policies that will benefit Cuba for generations to come. from increasing oil production and refining capacity. the task still falls to the Cuban government. the region. but the cost will necessarily be spread through a number of sources that are predominately American because of strategic interests. they will come up short.S. realized through a division of labor and dispersion of resources that serve as a hedge against natural disaster and market disruptions. is a major contributor. Cuba is sparing no effort by instituting bottom-up and top-down policy initiatives to meet this challenge. But it stands to reason that no matter how successful these efforts are. This is important not only because it will allow direct foreign investment. Cuban officials are not averse and perhaps would prefer that the U. because up until this point it hasn’t cost the United States much if anything.S. The current policy continues to clearly place at the forefront the sanctity and utility of a comprehensive economic and political embargo in the hopes that it helps to foment a change in regime and a peaceful transition to a democratic system of governance and a complimentary market economy. and international financial institutions. Two factors may alter this present situation. Moreover. be its major partner in this effort owing to the fact that most if not all of . Ultimately. Report for the Cuban Research Institute.fiu. government agencies.” http://cri. Florida International University.AT: Not Enough Oil US-Cuban joint oil production is the critical key to US oil selfsufficiency---there are massive amounts of offshore oil waiting to be tapped Benjamin-Alvadaro 6 (Jonathan. Second. “The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special. to improving the nation’s energy infrastructure. will play important roles in the funding of the effort to revitalize the Cuban energy sector. is the possibility of normalization of trade relations with the United States. and only after normalization.S.pdf) Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face of a continuing opposition by the United States to anything resembling what can be construed as “good news” for the Castro regime? Obviously. PhD. of which the U. proximity and affinity.edu/research/commissionedreports/oil-cuba-alvarado.¶ The overview of the Cuban energy developments clearly and unambiguously reveals that the Castro regime has every intention of continuing to promote. It has significantly increased its international cooperation in the energy sector and continues to enhance its efforts to ensure energy security in these most uncertain of times. and hence. U. Treasurer of the American Political Science Association. Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha. all states could derive benefit from the public information campaigns to promote energy efficiency and conservation presently being promoted in Cuba in the face of diminishing energy stocks and uncertain global markets. First. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO. It suffices to say that the requisite investment and assistance will have a distinct American tinge to it. As energy security concerns continue to percolate up to an increasingly important status in the realm of national security objectives we may begin to see the erosion of the hard position against the Cuban regime regardless of its leadership. ensuring a stable energy future. Cuba may indeed realize a bonanza from the offshore tracts that will allow it to possibly address its many energy challenges. and no less significant.

the cost is significant and it stands to reason that the longer one waits to address the challenge at hand the higher the cost of modernizing the energy sector . trust and cooperation in this critical issue area across the region. For this reason alone. This should serve as an obvious point of entry into cooperation with the Cuban government and perhaps can serve as a catalyst for promoting confidence. . the American role in assisting Cuba in this effort will be significant and every day that the task is put off.the cutting-edge technology in energy. oil and gas comes from the United States. in large part because of the American economic embargo. ¶ Finally. it increases the long-term cost of the effort. absent the type of infrastructural investment that is available to most developing states. It is remarkable that the Cuban energy sector is as vibrant as it presently is.

Some species also have wide genetic variability throughout their range. Oceans are resilient Kennedy 2 .cfm) There is evidence that marine organisms and ecosystems are resilient to environmental change. ONGC. Steele components of marine systems are tightly coupled to physical factors.30 Repsol has significant offshore experience. p. and are generally seen as accomplished offshore operators ." and that "they are very knowledgeable of international industry practices and have incorporated many of these principles into their safety and regulatory planning and requirements.S. technology transfer are overblown.pdf It is difficult to assess the likelihood of a spill . Specialist in Energy Policy at the Congressional Research Service. including extra equipment to shut off blown-out wells beyond what is required in the United States. allowing them to respond quickly to rapid environmental change and thus rendering them ecologically adaptable .S. J. Cooperative Oxford Laboratory. “IN THIS ISSUE: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICT: CUBAN OFFSHORE DRILLING: PREPARATION AND PREVENTION WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE UNITED STATES' EMBARGO. Specialist in Latin American Affairs at the Congressional Research Service. PhD. Hofstra University School of Law. and PetroVietnam also have offshore experience.. (Victor. Gulf of Mexico. n66 Companies investing in Cuba have extensive offshore experience---no risk of spills Nerurkar & Sullivan 10 – Neelesh Nerurkar.Environmental science prof.” Sustainable Development Law & Policy.S. lexis Fears that Cuban offshore drilling poses serious environmental threats because of the proximity to the United States and the prohibition on U. Scarabeo-9 is built to Norwegian standards.S. said.31 Among other Cuban lease holders. According to Saipem. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems and Global Climate Change. President of the Houston-based International Association of Drilling Contractors.com/rpts/R41522_20101129. Fall 2011. and reports indicate that Cuba is taking safety seriously. including projects in the U. “Cuba’s Offshore Oil Development: Background and U.opencrs. http://www. n64 Lee Hunt. and Mark P. "[t]he Cuban oil industry has put a lot of research. but its offshore project appears the furthest from seeing drilling activity among existing licenses. L. Policy Considerations. Maryland. 2010. Sullivan.S. foreign sources have provided supplemental alternatives.org/projects/marine.D. & Pol'y 37." n65 Thus. 12 Sustainable Dev. including projects in the U. It has had issues with oil spills. PdVSA does not.” online: http://assets. study and thought into what will be required to safely drill. Former Director. Gulf of Mexico. involvement isn’t key Richard Sadowski 11.pewclimate.AT: Environment Turn Cuba won’t spill---they’ll be safe and U. (1991) hypothesized that the biological . which is not abnormal for an oil company. while the economic embargo of Cuba restricts American technology from being utilized. Cuba has at least as much incentive to ensure safe-drilling practices as does the United States. which may allow for adaptation to climate change. November 29. Petrobras and Statoil have extensive offshore experience . Petronas.

as one example. while declines of 50 and 80% led to classifications of 'endangered' and 'critically endangered'. Fish and Fisheries 4.1997. (2000) cite the six-fold variation of the Pacific sardine population (Sardinopssagax. Newcastle (Nicholas. 2002). a decline of 20% within 10 years or three generations (whichever is longer) triggered a classification of 'vulnerable'. however. It should.Marine life is resilient Dulvy 3 – Professor of Marine Science and Technology. Musick 1999. . Clupeidae) over the past two millennia to suggest that rapid declines and increases of up to 10-fold are relatively common in exploited fish stocks. Extinction vulnerability in marine populations. are too conservative for marine fishes (Hudson and Mace1996. but many marine resource biologists feel that for marine fishes 'one size does not fit all' (see Hutchings 2001a). Powles et al. They argue that percent decline criteria are too conservative compared to the high natural variability of fish populations . Powles et al. Hutchings 2001a). respectively. 2000. Clupeidae) and a nine-fold variation in northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax. For the (1996) IUCN list.1) Marine fish populations are more variable and resilient than terrestrial populations Great natural variability in population size is sometimes invoked to argue that IUCN Red List criteria. be borne in mind that the variation of exploited populations must be higher than unexploited populations because recruitment fluctuations increasingly drive population fluctuations when there are few adults (Pauly et al. Matsuda et al. These criteria were designed to be applied to all animal and plant taxa.

AT: HEALTH CARE DA .

” For example. Indeed. If you have any pills in your purse. And the facilities in which they are treated are First World: clean. Cubans were justifiably proud of their health-care system. In many hospitals patients must provide their own sheets. is top-notch. facilities on Cuba.Cuban health care is struggling – the economy and the embargo The Economist 7/14/2012 “Cuban Health Care: Under Investigation” http://www. Life- expectancy matches that of Americans. Neglect of infrastructure means that almost 10% of the population lacks . A nurse spoke to Isabel Vincent of Canada’s National Post. Measles jabs have been near-universal for more than 20 years. “I haven’t seen aspirin in a Cuban store here for more than a year.” said the nurse. he earned what most doctors did: 575 pesos a month. that there are many separate. “We have nothing. well supplied.latinamericanstudies. He had to sell pork out of his home to get by.” And doctors are not necessarily privileged citizens in Cuba. The foreigners-only facilities do a big business in what you might call vanity treatments: Botox. soap. Testimony and documentation on the subject are vast. A doctor in exile told the Miami Herald that. putting Cuba ahead of many rich countries. like the one for medical tourists. leprosy.” The equipment that doctors have to work with is either antiquated or nonexistent. If they do have to go to the hospital. on errands of mercy. Pharmacies are generally illstocked. People speak of “tourism apartheid. and so on. “Everyone tries to survive. they must bring their own bedsheets. The second health-care system is for Cuban elites — the Party. and breast implants. patients may be better off at home. But Cuba’s crumbling economy has put this system under stress. When they travel to the island. (Of course. in 2003. an exiled doctor named Dessy Mendoza Rivero — a former political prisoner and a spectacularly brave man — wrote a book called ¡Dengue! La Epidemia Secreta de Fidel Castro. there are separate hotels. is a particular menace. And the chief of medical services for the whole of the Cuban military had to rent out his car as a taxi on weekends. the one that ordinary people must use — and it is wretched. These include tuberculosis. even sophisticated medications are plentiful and cheap. “The [Cuban] doctors are pretty well trained. a third of these are deployed overseas in “soft-power” missions. or even two: There are three. The first is for foreigners who come to Cuba specifically for medical care. This is known as “medical tourism. which provides oxygen to the regime. whatever home is. Conditions are so unsanitary. As you can well imagine. Dr. Even if they have passed their expiry date. Jaime Suchlicki of the University of Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies explains that there is not just one system.htm To be sure.economist. Remember. Then there is the real Cuban system. but they have nothing to work with. And basic medications are scarce. this causes widespread resentment in the general population.Health Care DA – 2AC NO IMPACT – Cuban Health care cannot solve disease National Review 7/30/2007 “The Myth of Cuban Health Care” http://www.” The tourists pay in hard currency. light bulbs — even toilet paper. too.com/node/21558613 Until recently.” he explained. these people were called the “nomenklatura.org/cuba/health-myth. In the Soviet Union. or segregated. It’s like operating with knives and spoons. official artists and writers. And dengue. state-of-the-art.” And their system. In the real Cuba. Though the state still trains armies of doctors. finding an aspirin can be a chore. another fever. or about 25 dollars. and typhoid fever. American doctors make sure to take as much equipment and as many supplies as they can carry. separate beaches. Infant mortality ties with Canada’s as the lowest in the Americas. In Sicko. separate restaurants — separate everything. there is excellent health care on Cuba — just not for ordinary Cubans. whatever he does with it. you can call a Cuban with a car privileged. the military. One told the Associated Press. NOT UNIQUE . food. towels. I’ll take them. who are eight times richer. And an antibiotic will fetch a fortune on the black market. Hospitals and clinics are crumbling.) So deplorable is the state of health care in Cuba that old-fashioned diseases are back with a vengeance. Doctors have been known to reuse latex gloves — there is no choice. liposuction. food and dressings.

" he said. The next step. 27 (Xinhua) -. Many drugs are in short supply. A pair of children's shoes costs $13. "because they are manufactured in the United States. embargo. embargo” http://news. is trying to revive the economy by cautiously transferring chunks of it into private hands.xinhuanet.000 Latin Americans to study medicine--all part of its obsessive search for international prestige.Cuban medical authorities said on Tuesday a 50-year trade embargo imposed by the United States has severely undermined the country's healthcare system." LINK TURN . Inequality” page proquest And now health services and education are becoming harder to access and getting worse . the president. currently restricted to farming. says Julia Sweig of the Council on Foreign Relations. reported this week. mostly in Venezuela but also in Africa. this sort of economic surgery will need to speed up. which is highly expensive around the world. where thousands of people receive free medical care every year from international specialists. who this month visited China and Vietnam. But the main reason for the shortage of medical staff is low salaries. Raúl Castro. He added some equipments were simply unattainable. told Xinhua that Cuba had made a great effort for the benefit of all its citizens. She has two small children." said Director of the institute Dr. The American embargo against the island does not help: equipment for radiology. this correspondent came across an elderly woman who had hurt her arm and was whimpering with pain.S. adding "due to the U. advanced medical technology and latest scientific information. The Cuban government also offers scholarships to 20. sometimes we do not have all the raw materials and tools to solve certain problems immediately. On a weekday morning in a village in the inappropriately named municipality of La Salud ("health").com/english/health/2012-11/28/c_132004531. an American think-tank.Embargo restricts Cuba from access to necessary medicines and tech Xinhua News 11/28/2012 “Cuban healthcare weakended by U.htm HAVANA. John Rhodes. "We must find alternatives that sometimes include purchasing from distant markets. Although infant mortality has continued to fall. The public Institute of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery. buying from third parties. There is a surfeit of humanities graduates and a shortage of agronomists and engineers. NOT UNIQUE . A woman who gave her name as Grisel says she worked as a family doctor for just $23 a month.access to clean drinking water. maternal mortality has risen. mammograms and cancer therapy is hard to replace. representing a significant impact on the tiny Caribbean nation.Health care declining – supplies & staff The Economist 3/24/2012 “The deal's off. "It provides us free medicine across the country. the Caribbean and Central America. but now earns $40 a month in an improvised craft shop in Havana. Nov. a patient. As a doctor "I faced a choice of buying shoes or eating.S. according to official figures. south of the capital. If the health service is to thrive again.000 Cuban doctors and other health workers were working in 77 countries around the world. which means higher prices for these products. Hospital patients sometimes have to bring their own sheets. will be to let transport and other service workers form cooperatives. officials said. 37. Cuban hospitals suffer restrictions in acquiring imported medical consumables and medicine." The embargo has caused Cuba a loss of more than 200 million dollars in the medical sector alone by 2011. There are reports of doctors starting to demand payment." . is financially strained by the embargo. Lorenzo Llerena. having found no doctors in attendance at two health clinics. Secondary-school enrolment is below its 1989 peak. In 2010.

and limited the exchange of medical and scientific information due to travel restrictions and currency regulations.amnestyusa.Embargo devastates health care system – supplies & lack of information exchange Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.45 The 300-page document is still the most comprehensive study on the issue. poor water quality.S.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. the U. Based on a fact-finding mission to Cuba.” 46 . embargo of food and the de facto embargo on medical supplies has wreaked havoc with the island's model primary health care system. The AAWH found that “a humanitarian catastrophe has been averted only because the Cuban government has maintained a high level of budgetary support for a health care system designed to deliver primary and preventive health care to all of its citizens… Even so. lack of access to medicines and medical supplies.LINK TURN .pdf The negative impact of the US embargo on the Cuban health care system and on the right to health of Cubans during the 1990s has been documented in a 1997 report by the American Association for World Health (AAWH). the AAWH identified that the embargo contributed particularly to malnutrition affecting especially women and children.

co. Venezuela provides much-needed oil to Cuba and in exchange receives Cuban doctors and medical supplies. But it's also raising the eyebrows of outside analysts. 22 For example. which spends $190 million a year paying for its citizens' medical bills. published daily details for two weeks on how much the government spends on everything from anesthetics and acupuncture to orthodontics and organ transplants. to explain or blunt fears of a drop-off in care and to remind Cubans to be grateful that health care is still free despite persistent economic woes." said Phil Peters. Healthcare may be free and available for all Cuban citizens but medication is not. it seems very little of this actually remains in Cuba. food and water for hospital stays. the government spends $2 each time a Cuban visits a family doctor. not much by outside standards.com/2012/08/27/cuba-healthcare_n_1832955. is not immune to cutbacks under Raul Castro's drive for efficiency. $4. but quite a bit for Cuba. "My guess is that there's some kind of policy statement to follow. mostly to other Latin American countries for purely financial returns. Based on the official exchange rate. Granma. challenges remain.14 for each X-ray and $6. 13 There are claims that hospitals are often in poor conditions and doctors have to bring in their own supplies and equipment to allow them to treat their patients. 23 The ‘pesos pharmacies’ and local state hospitals are drastically under-stocked and thus access for the poor to needed medication is minimal. "Very often the media has been a leading indicator of where the economic reforms are going. It's part of a wider media campaign that seems geared to discourage frivolous use of medical services.uk/issue9/hanna/ However. posters in clinics and ads on state TV is the same: "Your health care is free. Scarcities now are common and sanitary conditions fall short of the ideal in decaying facilities where paint peels from the walls.huffingtonpost. Every year Cuba exports huge amounts of medical aid. who predict further cuts or significant changes to what has been a pillar of the socialist system implanted after the 1959 revolution. Patients often bring their own bed sheets.global- politics. but how much does it cost?" The answer is. Pharmacies are often very poorly stocked and rationing of supplies is minimal. . 14 Cuba’s dual economy has a lot to do with why such disparity exists. Cubans lack resources for necessary medicine and equipment Global Politics 2007 “The Challenges of Health Care in Cuba” http://www. long considered a birthright by its citizens and trumpeted as one of the communist government's great successes.Cuba's system of free medical care.827 for a heart transplant. The health sector has already endured millions of dollars in budget cuts and tens of thousands of layoffs." The theme of the Granma pieces. a longtime Cuba observer at the Lexington Institute think tank. It's not a luxury service though.Health Care DA – N/U Ext Health care system is crumbling – budget cuts Associated Press 8/25/2012 “Cuba Health Care: Budget Cuts Threaten Sector” Huffington Post http://www. electric fans. 10 Despite the production of medical supplies and technology .html HAVANA -. despite the service being free. of which the poor and middle classes of Cuba are very unlikely to have. and it became clear this month that Castro is looking for more ways to save when the newspaper voice of the Communist Party. because that's been the pattern. Medication and equipment is there and available but only to pay for in American dollars.

The embargo restricts the export of medicines and medical equipment from the U. and sending them remittances." The Amnesty report also cites United Nations data that says Cuba's inability to import nutritional products for schools. the embargo has a sweeping effect on Cuban healthcare . it would send a clear message that the U. according to UNICEF.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng.S.AT: Health Care DA – Link Turn Ext Embargo prevents access to necessary tech SurfKY News 4/15/2013 “UK Delegation Visits Cuba. Cuba can import these products from other countries. trade embargo on Cuba is endangering the health of millions by limiting Cubans' access to medicines and medical technology.S.” Berres said.cuba.com/2009/HEALTH/09/01/amnesty." She also said the embargo affects the way doctors think about the future.health/ LONDON. and from any U. Amnesty said that while not renewing the Act would not in itself end the embargo against Cuba. which is due for renewal on September 14.cnn. A U. human rights group Amnesty International alleged Wednesday.S.S. The Act has been reviewed by U." Reed said. the condition affected 37. presidents on an annual basis since 1978. In April this year President Obama lifted restrictions that had prevented U. "The president believes it makes strategic sense to hold on to some inducements we can use in dealing with a Cuban government if it shows any signs of seeking a normalized relationship with us and begins to respect basic human rights. which have been in place since 1962. Amnesty also called on President Obama to not renew the Trading with the Enemy Act. However. hospitals and day care centers is contributing to a high prevalence of iron deficiency anemia. sanctions put Cubans' health at risk” http://edition. “This prevents them from having access to the latest pharmaceutical and technological advances. Gerardo Ducos.5 percent of Cuba's children under three years old. I would say the people most affected have been cancer and HIV-AIDS patients. England (CNN) -. but there are major shipping costs and logistical challenges to contend with. she said. She told CNN.S.pdf The provision of health care has also suffered from the limitations and restrictions imposed by the embargo on the procurement of basic and specialized medical equipment and chemical components needed for the production of generic medicines. the conditions governing the process make their export virtually impossible. .S. In 2007. Embargo restricts health care – equipment & chemicals Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www. Learns About its Healthcare System” http://surfky. Over the past decades.S. a non-profit organization that encourages cooperation among U.S.amnestyusa. "In general. Gail Reed is international director of MEDICC (Medical Education Cooperation with Cuba). is adopting a new policy toward Cuba. embargo immoral and said it should be lifted.S.S. An Amnesty report examines the effects of the sanctions.The U. leaving medical equipment without replacement parts and patients without continuity of medications.php/communities/303-lexington-fayette-county/29814-ukdelegation-visits-cuba-learns-about-its-healthcare-system “Many of the problems with Cuba’s health care system are associated with the American embargo. Amnesty International SecretaryGeneral Irene Khan called the U. an Amnesty researcher for the Caribbean region.. State Department spokeswoman would not comment on the report because she hadn't read it. company. "It's preventing millions of Cubans from benefiting from vital medicines and medical equipment essential for their health. citizens from visiting relatives in Cuba.S. told CNN that although medicines and medical supplies can be licensed for export to Cuba." Khan said. so many of their facilities are very basic. Cuban and global health communities. "Doctors in Cuba always worry that an international supplier will be bought out by a U.-owned company abroad.” Embargo prevents access to tech and medicine CNN 9/02/2009 “Report: U.com/index.

The repercussions of these difficulties are ultimately felt by the intended beneficiaries of these programmes. Embargo hurts health care – infrastructure Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. who face long delays before having access to adequate medicine or treatment. medicines. Health and health services depend on functioning water and sanitation infrastructure.pdf The impact of economic sanctions on health and health services is not limited to difficulties in the supply of medicine.Embargo hurts health care – hampers UN programs Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www. on electricity and other functioning equipment such as X-ray facilities or refrigerators to store vaccines. The financial burden and commercial barriers have led to shortages or intermittent availability of drugs. It has also hindered the renovation of hospitals. equipment and spare parts.64 .pdf The increase in the costs for purchasing the necessary medicine or medical materials is hampering the implementation of UN development projects and programmes.amnestyusa. clinics and care centres for the elderly.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng.amnestyusa.

n79 any increase in humanitarian assistance might also require a proportional loosening of the trade and travel restrictions . since so much of America's humanitarian soft power resources lie outside of government in the private sector and civil society. it will still have to be reconciled with an enduring hostile relationship between both countries .S. on the other hand.S. On the one hand. policy. humanitarian assistance is the very type of soft power engagement that might help thaw relations between Washington and Havana. as applied to humanitarian organizations. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The only problem with offering more humanitarian aid to Cuba is that it seemingly contradicts current U.[*215] Doesn’t solve hard power – lifting the embargo is key to cooperating on oil drilling – that’s the key internal link to hard power . which aims to isolate and destabilize the regime through economic sanctions. n78 While any increase in humanitarian assistance will no doubt be viewed as a positive step in the right direction.at least. The perception in Cuba is that the United States is responsible for the chronic humanitarian crisis that has afflicted the island since 1989.AT: LIFT TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS CP Removing travel restrictions alone is insufficient to solve the soft power advantave advantage – removing the whole embargo is key Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. However.

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