Plan

The United States federal government should end its embargo on
Cuba

LEADERSHIP ADV

LEADERSHIP ADV – 1AC
SCENARIO ONE: SOFT POWER:
Anti-Americanism is growing in Latin America – extending an olive
branch to Cuba is necessary to re-establish our regional soft power
Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy

Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis
Anti-Americanism has become the political chant de jour for leaders seeking longterm as well as short-term gains in Latin American elections. In Venezuela, the
anti-American rhetoric spewed by Hugo Chavez masks his otherwise autocratic
tendencies, while countries like Bolivia and Ecuador tilt further away from
Washington, both rhetorically and substantively. The former expelled the U.S. Ambassador in October 2008, and the latter
has refused to renew Washington's lease on an airbase traditionally used for counter-narcotics missions. The systemic
neglect for eight years during the Bush Administration meant that political capital
was never seriously spent dealing with issues affecting the region . Because of this, President
Bush was unable to get much headway with his proposal to reform immigration, and his free trade agreement with Colombia
encountered significant opposition in Congress. Recent examples of U.S. unilateralism, disregard

for
international law and norms, and a growing financial crisis, have all been seized
by a new generation of populist Latin American leaders who stoke anti-American
sentiment.
The region, however, is absolutely critical to our national interest and security. Over
thirty percent of our oil comes from Latin America - more than the U.S. imports
from the Middle East. Additionally, over half of the foreign-born population in the United States is Latin American,
meaning that a significant portion of American society is intrinsically tied to the region. n1 These immigrants, as well as their sons
and daughters, have already begun to take their place amongst America's social, cultural, and political elite.
Just south of America's borders, a deepening polarization is spreading throughout

the entire region. In the last few years ideological allies in Bolivia, Ecuador, and
Venezuela have written and approved new constitutions that have consolidated the
power of the executive, while extending - or in Venezuela's case eliminating presidential term limits. In Venezuela the polarization has been drawn along economic lines, whereby Chavez's base
of support continues to be poor Venezuelans. In Bolivia the polarization has been drawn along racial lines: the preamble to the new
Bolivian constitution, approved in January 2009, makes reference to the "disastrous colonial times," a moment in history that
Bolivians of Andean-descent particularly lament. Those regions in Bolivia with the most people of European or mixed descent have
consistently voted for increased provincial autonomy and against the constitutional changes proposed by President Morales.
Perhaps due to its sweeping changes, the new Constitution was rejected by four of Bolivia's nine provinces. n2 Like Bolivia, Latin
America is still searching for its identity.
[*191] Traditionally the U.S. has projected its influence by using varying

combinations of hard and soft power. It has been a long time since the U nited States
last sponsored or supported military action in Latin America, and although highly contextdependent, it is very likely that Latin American citizens and their governments would view any
overt display of American hard power in the region negatively. n3 One can only imagine the
fodder an American military excursion into Latin America would provide for a leader like Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, or Evo Morales
of Bolivia. Soft power, on the other hand, can win over people and governments without

resorting to coercion, but is limited by other factors.
The key to soft power is not simply a strong military, though having one helps, but rather an
enduring sense of legitimacy that can then be projected across the globe to
advance particular policies. The key to this legitimacy is a good image and a
reputation as a responsible actor on the global and regional stage. A good
reputation and image can go a long way toward generating goodwill, which
ultimately will help the U.S. when it tries to sell unpopular ideas and reforms in
the region. n4

S. function as lynchpins for. will remain the major powerbroker in the Americas for decades to come. n7 For fifty years. a move heavily courted by Chinese officials. and repair America's image. and would go a long way toward creating goodwill. President Hu rewarded Costa Rica's new policy by visiting San Jose and signing a free trade agreement in 2010. cross-cultural educational exchanges. China quickly displaced the United States as that country's largest export market. In 2008. but also win over new allies. and Latin America.S. Working with other nations to address these challenges is the best way to shore up legitimacy. trade between China and Latin America hovered around $ 13 billion. n6 As a result of its continuing tensions with Havana. as Brazil's biggest trading partner. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The absence of a strong American presence over the last eight years has also given China the opportunity to step in as a major player. must repair its image by going on a diplomatic offensive and reminding. every country in Latin America is a potential friend. the U. n8 In short. US influence in Latin America is key to prevent Chinese crowd in – the impact is cyber war Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. and by 2008 total trade was valued at $ 140 billion. of the important relationship between the U.S. Many of the problems facing Latin America today cannot be addressed in the absence of U. but also the Latin American people." whereby China steps in to fill the gap left by America's absence. despite their small size.In order to effectively employ soft power in Latin America. if it wants to repair America's image in the region.S. n117 In 2000. with an annual trade growth of 30% since 2001. Washington will have to rely more heavily on diplomatic initiatives that shore up credibility rather than simply economic incentives and disincentives. as has its ability to deal with other countries. It charts China's growing relationship with Latin America and promises increased cooperation in scientific and technological research. warming relations with Cuba would have a reverberating effect throughout Latin America. trade between China and Latin America is likely to grow during the next five years.S. who look to us for "ideas and solutions. To that end. American clout correspondingly decreases in terms of relative power." These are organisms that. or barometers of. and the Obama Administration. n115 American disinterest in Latin America has convinced many countries to adopt a "Pacific view." n5 When analyzing ecosystems. n120 As China's role in Latin America increases. the entire system's stability . China's interest in Latin America is also based on its increasingly assertive global political agenda." But now the tables have turned. n116 After signing a free trade agreement with Chile.S. in regions all around the world. Latin American governments that hoped to endear themselves to the U. despite its size and isolation. the U. America must once again be admired if we are going to expect other countries to follow our example. not lectures. will have to pass a Cuba litmus test of its own. both economically and politically. To be sure. China also [*224] recently displaced the U. but particularly in Latin America. is a keystone nation in Latin America. earn respect. n119 China also timed the release of a new policy paper on Sino-Latin American relations to coincide with President Hu's most recent trip to the region. In 2007. but will increasingly have to make room for a new player. . n118 Even despite the current financial crisis. as well as political and economic exchanges. leadership and cooperation.S. Costa Rica dropped its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. Washington will have to not only strengthen its existing relationships in the region. such as bilateral trade agreements . where it is now the continent's third largest trading partner. not just Latin America's leaders. Given this diminishing economic position. having disproportionately dominated Washington's policy toward the region for decades. Although this proposal focuses heavily on Cuba. had to pass the Cuba "litmus test. that number had increased to $ 102 billion. America's reputation [*192] in the region has suffered. environmental scientists seek out "keystone species. but in 2007. Cuba. The Chinese government has invested a tremendous amount of soft power in Latin America .

China has an incentive to develop technological capabilities in Cuba. Economic decline causes global war Royal 10 (Jedediah. Separately. Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”. Congressional Testimony to the Subcommittee on Crime in the House and the Senate Subcommittee on Criminal Justice Oversight. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. transportation and government operations -. Second. China purchases over 400. Copeland's (1996.are now all dependent on computer technology for their very operations. exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. which begs the question: what is China getting in return for all this assistance? If China is cooperating with Cuban intelligence to spy on the United States. Ed. could deny service on a very broad scale. came from China. Development of such capabilities may already be happening.and by that I mean those services that are vital to our economy and to our national security.S. although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. it is also a national security problem. as long as Taiwan is a [*225] thorny issue for U. where in 2004 Hu Jintao visited and confirmed that most of the technology housed there. on a visit to Cuba. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. “Economic Integration. such as electrical power. on the systemic level. 2000 (Michael. on a dyadic level.3 billion worth of goods exchanged. a greater American presence on the island would be needed to fully understand the scope of this rather disturbing operation. China is Cuba's second-largest trading partner with $ 2. a former Soviet espionage base just outside of Havana. As such. telecommunications. the only thing standing between Beijing's re-appropriation of Taipei is Washington. p. which can be used in tandem with cyber and communications warfare against Washington. and also to terrorists and hostile foreign nations. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one preeminent leader to the next. This is because our nation's critical infrastructures -. China will have a stake in Cuba.-Sino relations. Cyber-attack would destroys the US economy Vatis. n121 In fact. including almost all of the computers. dyadic and national levels. The same basic types of cyber attacks that therefore have become attractive to criminals are also attractive to foreign intelligence services . l/n) And this is not just a criminal problem. FBI.000 tons of Cuban sugar. Legal and Political Perspectives. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic.S. 2/29. who seek new ways to obtain sensitive government or proprietary information. An increased Chinese presence in Cuba might be a strategic move by Beijing to later leverage their presence on the island for a change in America's Taiwan policy. Economics of War and Peace: Economic. Department of Defense. which is Cuba's top export. Several notable contributions follow. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major. if successful. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Feaver. n124 Another former Soviet base in Bejucal may now also house both Cuban and Chinese intelligence analysts. China is neurotic about the functional American presence in Taiwan and has made its intentions for the island known to everyone. China has a huge presence at Lourdes. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour . Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. 1995). Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed to not only defer for ten years some of Cuba's debt payments. n125 But China's leadership is pragmatic. not ideological. Goldsmith and Brauer. but also to invest $ 80 million in the island's health industry. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent states. as well as half its annual output of nickel. Federal News Service. n122 In 2008. First. interests. Alternatively. 213-215) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. who are bent on attacking U. n123 Moreover. And that dependence makes them vulnerable to an attack which .(7B) China's Strategic Interest in Cuba China's presence in Cuba is rather significant: after Venezuela. 1999). medium and small powers.S. In the unlikely event of hostile engagement with the United States.

S. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. and thus weak Presidential popularity.-Cuban relationship would mean a healthier U. which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. Latin America's importance to the United States is growing by the day. which in turn returns the favour. dyadic and national levels. crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. DeRouen (1995).S. proliferation of weapons of mass destruction). a new . Washington must find a way to cooperate with its neighbors. While the issue of U. However. (Blomberg & Hess. and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. The plan leads to broader cooperation and influence in the region and globally Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. Although the chances of a post-Castro Cuba becoming a failed state are slim. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. face a humanitarian crisis.of states. Furthermore. the Obama Administration ignores Latin America at its own peril. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. addressing these concerns might also prevent more serious problems in the future.. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic.-Latin America relationship. but could potentially lead to a disproportionately high return by making regional cooperation more likely. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict. become a major drug trafficking center. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis [*195] Third. addressing it would also involve correspondingly less effort than those issues. or endure a combination of each. the former should be pursued with an unprecedented vigor. Aside from the strategic importance of this issue. experience a massive migration to Florida.5 This implied connection between integration. These three reasons combine for a perfect storm: to the extent that a healthy U.e. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other. one that has been absent for the last fifty years. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states.4 Third. Wang (1996). the threat is nevertheless real. sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. climate change. p. n20 In order to confront any of the major world issues facing the United States. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. Moreover. when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. If the state were to collapse. the island could plunge into civil war. the likelihood for conflict increases.S. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources. policy toward Cuba as the most glaring symbol of its historic inability to constructively engage the region. particularly during periods of economic downturn. and cannot be overstated. & Weerapana. who generally view U. Miller (1999). Hess. They write: The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. In summary. as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. 2004). and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. recent economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. Hess. However. "Diversionary theory" suggests that. and Blomberg. the ailing economy. 2002. if the expectations of future trade decline. Gelpi (1997).-Cuba relations is obviously of smaller import than many other issues currently affecting the world (i.S.S.

Because of this. it is important¶ that the United States and the region increase their attention to reshaping¶ regional institutions to better align them with current realities and ¶ challenges and to make them more effective. they have mutual interests and goals¶ that should allow consultation and collaboration on a new. n21 To address the issues confronting the United States vis-a-vis Latin America (i. and other countries of¶ the region in world forums addressing shared interests . and ¶ the Middle East uprisings. Mexico. Although the United States and Latin America¶ are often at odds on drug policy. This cooperation and influence is key to solve existential crisis Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report. There is no doubt that America's diminished image in Latin America means that it will face additional difficulty when trying to accomplish its regional goals.¶ This may position them as a voice in international debates on this topic. Still.e. and in efforts to¶ rebuild and provide security for Haiti.¶ Latin Americans are taking more active leadership on drug policy in the¶ hemisphere and could become increasingly influential in global discussions ¶ of drug strategies.¶ already has assumed a prominent position on climate change and ¶ is active in global policy debates. this year. For¶ example. The Eight Recommendations found in this proposal are suggestions that the Obama Administration should consider as it moves to reengage Latin America. as well as in the leakage—or transfer¶ of nuclear materials—to terrorists. including the World Bank ¶ and the International Monetary Fund. hosted the second international meeting on climate change in Cancún in ¶ 2010. Washington has worked with Brazil ¶ and other Latin American countries to raise the profile In addition to economic and financial matters. Brazil could play a pivotal role. the United States should seek greater¶ cooperation and consultation with Brazil. the main proliferation challenges today are found in developing¶ and unstable parts of the world. the environment. Brazil organized the first-ever global ¶ environmental meeting in 1992 and. and there is growing need for decisions about¶ priorities and objectives.pdf) Many of the issues on the hemispheric agenda carry critical global ¶ dimensions. Mexico¶ The United States is handicapped by its inability to devise a climate¶ change policy.¶ Although US and Latin American interests do not always converge¶ on non-proliferation questions.thedialogue.” April. but they have cooperated when their interests ¶ converged. labor and human rights).¶ The importance of the Amazon basin to worldwide climate concerns¶ gives Brazil and five other South American nations a special role to play. and security issues. Several for which US and Latin¶ American cooperation could become increasingly important include:¶  As the world’s lone nuclear-weapons-free region. “Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America. The United States and Brazil have ¶ clashed over such issues as Iran’s nuclear program. more effective¶ approach to the problem. 2012 (IAD is a think tank hosting 100 leaders and experts from the US and Latin America. In that context.¶ Brazil has the broadest international presence and influence of any Latin¶ American nation.and comprehensive policy toward Cuba can help prevent these nightmare scenarios from materializing.S. The hemisphere’s institutional¶ architecture is in great flux. Resolving America's "Cuba problem" is a low-cost/high-reward strategy that would inject new energy and credibility into America's image.¶ Mexico of emerging economies¶ in various international financial agencies. drugs.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.. but also the pragmatism that has made America so great to begin with. they align on some related goals . south-south connections¶ are crucial.¶ Even as Latin America expands its global reach and presence. In recent years it has become far more active on global ¶ issues of concern to the United States.¶  Many countries in the region give priority to climate change challenges. Latin America has the¶ opportunity to participate more actively in nonproliferation efforts. and Canada also participate in the G-20). Part of America's greatness is its ability to inspire practical solutions in people. ¶ environmental. non-proliferation. Washington must restore its heavily damaged image and regain its place as the region's trendsetter and leader. it should support coordination on the presumption¶ of shared interests on a critical policy challenge . trade. such as in the World Trade Organization and the G-20 (Mexico.¶ Argentina. Online: http://www.-Cuban policy should embrace not only America's uncanny ability to reinvent itself. will host Rio+20. Brazil and other Latin¶ American nations are assuming enhanced roles on an array of global political. Any new U. .

a movement toward energy cooperation and development with Cuba is consistent with. 2010. In public discussions. the variability of weather patterns. The critical need to improve the integrity of the U. and other countries in the region. and allow U. It also stands to reason that the lion’s Changes in U. energy security .S. Venezuela.S. The productive capacity of two of the United States’ largest oil suppliers. This will deploy an underused segment of the Cuban workforce.S. it may pave the way to establishing much-needed familiarity and confidence across these communities . In particular. Treasurer of the American Political Science Association.¶ The United States and Cuba will have a unique opportunity to employ a highly educated and competent cadre of Cuban engineers and technicians to work in critical areas of the energy sector. Mexico. after fifty years of enmity. Report for the Cuban Research Institute. and the United States needs to articulate a new vision of how best to manage international energy interdependence. Mexico and Venezuela. government and the Obama administration see fit to shift its policy so as to allow broader participation of American academics and practitioners in the energy field to attend conferences and meet with Cuban energy officials. energy security and satisfying energy demand. directly and indirectly. “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation” Conclusion and Recommendations Undoubtedly. representatives from American companies. too. The scope and objectives of Cuban energy development schemes have been disseminated. trade organizations. Florida International University. it would remain dependent on oil imports to meet its existing and future demand. dissected. and may be central to. and engineering firms to subcontract work to an emerging class of Cuban firms specializing in these areas. because deterioration of the infrastructure continues and eventually pushes up the cost of renovation and replacement. is in need of significant repair and modernization (its many energy projects notwithstanding). has declined.S. the opportunity to advance relations in the energy arena appears to be ripe. U.S. oil. universities.S. Since 2004.¶ and integration . and geostrategic objectives of U. The Cubans have accumulated experience and training from past energy cooperation projects and exchanges in Cuba. The Cubans have gained invaluable knowledge and experience through the operation and construction of energy facilities in collaboration with their joint- The United States possesses few options when it comes to balancing the various risks to U. not to mention since 2008. energy supply requires a much broader. PhD. Brookings Institution book. and the overall dismal state of the global economy create a setting of instability and uncertainty that requires close attention to the national security interests of the United States vis-à-vis energy. decisionmakers must look dispassionately at potential energy partners in terms of the role they might play in meeting political. construction. yet this change share of the financial burden of upgrading Cuba’s energy infrastructure will fall to the United States. . Cuban energy authorities have made it clear that their preferred energy development scenario includes working closely with the U. and discussed across a number of settings where the interested parties are now familiar with and well versed in the agendas and opportunities that exist in this arena. oil and gas industry and using state-of-the. that objective . because U.S. even if the United States were to choose to exploit all of its domestic energy resources. Delaying work on many of these projects increases costs.S.when Fidel Castro officially stepped aside as Cuba’s president.art U. energy independence is not attainable.S. the price tag is estimated to be in the billions of dollars. and think tanks have had the opportunity to meet with Cuban energy officials. This is plain from the almost quaint maintenance of a sanctions regime that seeks to isolate Cuba economically and politically but hardly reflects the dramatic changes that have occurred on the island since 1991. The vagaries of the politics in the region. policy to allow investment and assistance in Cuba’s energy sector are a precondition for international entities to make significant investments . The Obama administration has signaled that it wants to reinvigorate inter-American cooperation venture partners on the island. and the supporting energy infrastructure in both countries is in need of significant revitalization. The assessment from U. Anecdotal evidence suggests that these contacts and exchanges have been wildly successful because of the Cubans’ high level of competence and strong work ethic.SCENARIO TWO: HARD POWER: Lifting the embargo is essential to US-Cuba oil cooperation – key to solve independence from Middle East oil Benjamin-Alvadaro 10 – Jonathan Benjamin-Alvadaro. Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha.9 Should the U. the policy tools available to deal with energy supply disruptions are increasingly inadequate. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO. energy experts on the technical acumen and capability of Cuban energy officials has been overwhelmingly positive . more flexible view on the quest for resources—a view that does not shun a source from a potential strategic partner for purely political reasons. Now. there is a significant lack of trust and confidence between the United States and Cuba. oil technologies. Cuba’s energy infrastructure. ¶ The energy-security environment for the United States is at a critical juncture.S.S. economic.

Mexico and a handful of other friendly countries such as Brazil. The United States could provide much-needed additional investment capital in the development of upstream. Japan for example imports 98 percent of its oil.¶ I was left puzzled by that formulation of how the world works -. is in a much stronger position. foreign policy for the near and long term.¶ U. and this could alter the global distribution of power. government assistance will constitute a large The longer that work is delayed.S. perhaps. But according to Citigroup oil economist Edward Morse (quoted by Crooks). and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. it also means a new day for the U. The U. The U. Iraq. energy dependence is a severe handicap for being able to do that. was a superpower in the 20th century but won't be in the 21st doesn't hold up so well now.S. and Brazil have profound political. it's hard to write off an economy that has these two pillars of long-term strength. we have seen a parade of relatively resource-poor nations carve out significant global economic and geopolitical places for themselves over the decades. and adds storage and transit capabilities while enhancing regional cooperation and integration modalities. and economic problems. Trade and investment in the energy sector in Cuba have been severely constrained by the conditions of the embargo placed on the Cuban regime. imports oil only from Canada. but still in the Western Hemisphere: " writes. ¶ This discussion is intended to help distill understanding of U. which will then potentially cut into the returns from such undertakings. In modern .S. demographic. increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another. So US global leadership is vital to protecting the globe from wars Khalilzad 11 – Zalmay Khalilzad. This does not mean that the United States has to dismantle the nearly fiftyyear-old embargo against Cuba. why would relative American power abruptly reverse course compared with China's simply because one has and the other lacks oil ? I emailed Morse to find out. Crooks writes. ¶ The stakes are high.S. Because the policies can be considered works-in-progress.S. February 8. If U.nationalreview. a supporter) of the Petrocaribe energy consortium. we risk a new era of multi-polarity. 2011. Even though countries such as China. about to be energy-independent?”. " U. The closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify geopolitical competition among major powers . cooperation with Cuba in energy just may create an opportunity for the United States to improve its portion of the needed investment capital to undertake this colossal effort. an understanding of possible outcomes is important to those crafting future policy and making changes in the policymaking milieu. relations with Venezuela. not to mention metals. or is the U. These constraints also affect foreign firms seeking to do business in Cuba because of the threat of penalties if any of these firms use technology containing more than 10 percent of proscribed U.” online: http://www. crude oil imports account for 44 percent of the U. which is going to be overwhelmingly dependent on energy imports.foreignpolicy. America's trade balance would improve considerably -. stands an excellent chance of access to both. Oil independence strengthens U.S. 2011. If we don’t get our economic house in order. it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge.implies a large American footprint. November 1.S. diversifies regional refining capacity. China might or might not have access to cheap energy feedstocks and to virtual self-sufficiency . Crooks finds Even if the most optimistic hopes are not fulfilled. China imports much of its oil and natural gas. but the United States will have to make special provisions that create commercial and trade openings for energy development that serve its broad geostrategic and national security goals. as it has in the case of food and medicine sales to Cuba. His reply:¶ Superpower status really does depend over time on lots of abilities to deliver public goods for a wide variety of others.S. downstream.S. American private investment and U. Still. their economies are growing faster than ours. These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world. technologies needed for oil and gas exploration and production.since oil is fungible and can be bought freely by anyone with the money. “Is this group think.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-securityzalmay-khalilzad We face this domestic challenge while other major powers are experiencing rapid economic growth. but not readily forever.com/posts/2011/11/01/is_this_group_think_or_is_the_us_a bout_to_be_energy_independent?wpisrc=obinsite What could undermine the prognoses is if the result is relatively low oil prices. policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow. leadership LeVine 11 Steve LeVine is a writer for Foreign Policy.S. if it can demonstrate that it can serve as a partner (or at a minimum.S. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992."¶ But what does this mean in the big picture? First.S. as a global superpower :¶ The notion that the solace in the volumes further afield. “The Economy and National Security. and logistical resources in Cuba that simultaneously addresses Petrocaribe objectives. and a resumption of America's gluttonous gasoline appetite. http://oilandglory. Compare it to a country such as China. trade deficit. the higher the cost to all the investors.S. strategic energy policy under a set of shifting political and economic environmental conditions in Cuba and its implications for U. which would erode millions of barrels of oil a day." he one can imagine a future in which the U. and undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of escalation. social. India.S.currently. the United States ambassador to Afghanistan. To be sure one can do it for a long period of time.

the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U. and ballistic missiles. Beijing’s economic rise has enabled a dramatic military buildup focused on acquisitions of naval.S.¶ American retrenchment could have devastating consequences . Japan. and anti-satellite capabilities. in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers. weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the U nited States. Asia in particular is likely to emerge as a zone of great-power competition.history. Under this scenario. or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict . long-range stealth aircraft. multi-polar systems have been unstable. ultimately. miscalculation . hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions. China’s strategic modernization is aimed. leadership . there would be a heightened possibility of arms races. and Southeast Asian states. . India. cruise. the United States is the most significant barrier facing Chinese hegemony and aggression. Either way. China’s expansive territorial claims — and provocative statements and actions following crises in Korea and incidents at sea — have roiled its relations with South Korea. at denying the United States access to the seas around China. regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats. with their competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers. Without an American security blanket. Still. Even as cooperative economic ties in the region have grown. Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars. Alternatively. By contrast.¶ As rival powers rise.

influence. terrorism. the growing attractiveness of China and Europe. Force is not a long-term solution. or theft of a weapon of mass destruction. 419.stan. and freedom of movement-against it. Globalization is erasing borders that once protected the United States. Washington is simply less able to persuade others. Washington must increasingly resort to the other option Nye discusses-force. human trafficking. More than ever before. Surprise: others followed. the White House has been unable to lead a multinational effort to halt Iran's nuclear program. or elimination-requires the help of others. Blinken 03 (Antony J.S.. Lennon. Vol.Soft Power – General Impacts Soft Power is key to solving competitiveness. disease. such as economic disaster. and drug trafficking. pg. outlaw actors. Iss. ership is essential to meet these threats successfully. a longtime US ally. to play a major staging role. war. nontraditional security threats such as disease. successfully applied. again in part because of America's negative image in countries ranging from India to Germany In attempts to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons. US leadership is key to solving the economy..” The Battle for Hearts and Minds: edited by Alexander T. unilaterally if necessary. and the possibility that anti-US sentiment will make it easier for terrorist groups to recruit. or the threat of force. silencing critics and creating a bandwagon effect among friends. partly because few Asian states view the United States as a neutral. military success in Afghani. As Charles Krauthammer wrote. with a decline in soft power. it is harder for leaders in these countries to openly embrace counterterrorism cooperation with the United States. Washington has had to allow China to play a central role. “Winning the War of Ideas. the transnational nature of the problems the United States faces defies unilateral solutions. Whatever response the United States chooses-engagement. outbreak of disease. In addition. proliferation. containment. 284) Why should the United States care that some criticize its policies and others resent its power? Following U. is tempting. security. we would go it alone. U. Not because they love us. 104.” Current History. however. With foreign governments and publics suspicious of American policy.fend vital American interests. a fact that even the White House recognizes. the potential backlash against American companies. and drug trafficking can only be managed through forms of multilateral cooperation that depend on America's ability to persuade other nations. now more than ever. and WMD threats. the Bush administration could not convince Turkey. Thus. Rogue states. legitimate broker in the talks. so Washington resorts to quiet arm-twisting and blandishments to obtain counterterror concessions. however. In the run-up to the Iraq War. The 2002 National security Strategy emphasizes that winning the war on terror requires the United States to lead a battle of ideas against the ideological roots of terrorism.S. Terrorism itself cannot be defeated by force alone. disease. J. . in addition to rooting out and destroying individual militant cells. senior fellow at CSIS. human trafficking. visiting scholar in the Carnegie Endowment’s China Program. as demonstrated on September 11. Joshua Kurlantzick. Dec 2005. so is followership."2 Military power remains the foundation of U. concluding that unilateral might makes right. Instead. Newer. These include the drain in foreign talent coming to the United States. accessed 07/10/07 A broad decline in soft power has many practical implications. advanced technology. With America's image declining in nations like Thailand and Pakistan. can quickly become a plague on the United States' house.S. and instead has had to resort to threatening sanctions at the United Nations or even the possibility of strikes against Iran. “The Decline of American Soft Power. pg. During the war itself. the United States has failed to obtain significant participation from all but a handful of major nations. . 686. and religious fanatics use the nation's very strengths-its openness. "We made it plain that even if no one followed us. But because we have demonstrated astonishing military power and the will to de. it magni. in part because America's image in Turkey was so poor. trouble on the far side of the planet. proquest.S. while empowering its enemies. lead.fies U. Not because we have embraced multilateralism.

Philadelphia. particularly among the elites. Beijing may have to confront the prospect of a resurgent Washington determined to reassert its strategic interests. for the country faces formidable environmental. The Euro-Atlantic world had a long run of global dominance. the United States is very likely to remain fully engaged in global affairs. resource. First. professor of international security and director of the Institute for International Security and Development at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. Advocates of restraint or global withdrawal.International Relations at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. have embraced the notion of American exceptionalism with such fervor that they can’t discern the world transformation occurring before their eyes. of course. The National Interest. and U. power two reasons.US will be more violent and desperate post-decline Dupont June 2012 (Alan. W. grand strategy will have to change with it. not to mention a rival United States that shows no sign of lapsing into terminal decline despite its current economic travails . While superficially appealing because it holds out the prospect of a peaceful transition to a new international order. However. would voluntarily relinquish power to China. Because ‘‘indirect’’ counter-strategies are the rational choice for actors facing a strong state’s power projection. Pax Americana also is winding down.S. First. The United States can manage this relative decline effectively over the next couple of decades only if it first acknowledges the fundamental reality of decline . lexis) THE CONSTELLATION of world power is changing. Australia.the US won’t just give up Layne June 2012 (Chris. remain on the margins of policy debates in Washington D. administration. American elites must come to grips with the fact that the West does not enjoy a predestined supremacy in international politics that is locked into the future for an indeterminate period of time. Mike. at present. Sooner than it thinks.AT: Heg Bad – Hard Power Inevitable Decline makes all their turns worse. The problem is that many Americans.¶ At the same time. China’s new great-power status is hardly untrammeled. but it is coming to an end. professor and Robert M. sharing between the United States and China is unlikely to work for no U. An Asian Security Standoff. while popular in some segments of academia. economic and demographic challenges. All their turns are inevitable . Orbis. Spring) It is important to recognize at the outset two key points about United States strategy and the potential costs and benefits for the United States in a changing security environment. regardless of its political complexion. just as China wouldn’t if the roles were reversed. The Global Power Shift from West to East. Second. This could always change.C. it is a given that the United States will define its interests globally and pursue a strategy that requires capable military forces able to project power around the world. Gates Chair in National Security at Texas A & M University’s George H. Even Layne agrees. Bush School of Government and Public Service. The future is more likely to be shaped by the East.24 . Graduate Student in the PhD Program in Political Science .S. lexis) What of the argument that America should accept the inevitable and share power with China as an equal? Paralleling the G-2 would be an Asia-2. The National Interest. irregular/asymmetric threats are inevitable given America’s role in the global order. Nor is it guaranteed to last.Zero Chances of willful US restraint – we’ll inevitably be engaged globally – the only question is effectiveness Shalmon and Horowitz 09 (Dan. allowing Beijing and Washington to divide the region into spheres of influence in much the same way as the United States and the Soviet Union managed a politically bifurcated Europe during the early part of the Cold War.

it is driven instead by forces that are deeply rooted in the shifting structure of the international system and in the very different domestic political regimes of the two Pacific powers. is among the oldest in recorded history. rising powers feel constrained. lexis) THE UNITED States and the People’s Republic of China are locked in a quiet but increasingly intense struggle for power and influence.Transition  War Transition from US dominance causes conflict.perception of weakness spurs war. ascendant states typically feel impelled to challenge territorial boundaries. rising states tend to be troublemakers. have so often been marked by war. feeding its ambitions and triggering a spiral of escalating demands. by contrast. not only in Asia. The resulting clash of interests between the two sides has seldom been resolved peacefully . these efforts have almost always ended in failure. At least insofar as the dominant powers are concerned. then. and the potential for conflict particularly fraught. Indeed.-China relationship is competitive. . China is. rising powers want their place in the sun . But these countries are not just any two great powers: Since the end of the Cold War the United States has been the richest and most powerful nation in the world.” The fact that the U. to have what they consider to be their rightful say in the affairs of their region and of the wider world. truest cause was “the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta. vigor and decline. professor of politics and international affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University. This means that those in ascendance typically attempt not only to secure their borders but also to reach out beyond them. this story line. taking steps to ensure access to markets. the dominant states are often either reluctant to make concessions. of course. materials and transportation routes.” but China is fast gaining ground. thereby fueling the frustrations and resentments of the rising power. The National Interest. the nascent SinoAmerican rivalry is not merely the result of misperceptions or mistaken policies. This. Recognizing the growing threat to their position. international institutions and hierarchies of prestige that were put in place when they were still relatively weak. As a nation’s capabilities grow. Established powers tend to regard themselves as the defenders of an international order that they helped to create and from which they continue to benefit. to protect their citizens far from home. But however sincere. an aggressor may have ambitions that are so extensive as to be impossible for the status quo powers to satisfy without effectively consigning themselves to servitude or committing national suicide. Even when the demands being made of them are less onerous. Sometimes the reason clearly lies in the demands of the rising state. This is why periods of transition. its leaders generally define their interests more expansively and seek a greater degree of influence over what is going on around them. And in spite of what many earnest and well-intentioned commentators seem to believe. Like Japan in the late nineteenth century. America is still “number one. relations between dominant and rising states have been uneasy—and often violent. As far back as the fifth century BC the great Greek historian Thucydides began his study of the Peloponnesian War with the deceptively simple observation that the war’s deepest. to promulgate their religious or ideological beliefs. but around the world. principal beneficiaries and main defenders of any existing international system. and. with its Shakespearean overtones of youth and age. Aaron L. they look for ways to satisfy their demands and ambitions and seek to incorporate them peacefully into the existing international order. The stakes are about as high as they can get. Others—hoping to avoid war—have taken the opposite approach: attempting to appease potential challengers . Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics. the state whose capabilities have been growing most rapidly.. Throughout history.AT: Heg Bad . Successful policies of appeasement are conceivable in theory but in practice have proven devilishly difficult to implement.history proves Friedberg 2011 (July/August. or too eager to do so. by the status quo and struggle against it to take what they think is rightfully theirs.S. or Germany at the turn of the twentieth. ascending power begins to overtake the previously dominant state. As was true of Adolf Hitler’s Germany. As they begin to assert themselves. is what brings them into conflict with the established great powers —the so-called status quo states—who are the architects. even cheated. is simply no surprise. dominant powers (or a coalition of status quo states) have occasionally tried to attack and destroy a competitor before it can grow strong enough to become a threat. in general. to defend their foreign friends and allies. when a new.

The trouble is. And that is also true today.Heg Solves War Collapse of US hegemony causes a global power vacuum resulting in nuclear war Ferguson 04 professor of history at New York University's Stern School of Business and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University (Niall. and the World Trade Organization (formerly the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) each considers itself in some way representative of the “international community. but downward. These groups can operate. now human societies depend not merely on freshwater and the harvest but also on supplies of fossil fuels that are known to be finite. Foreign Policy ) Could an apolar world today produce an era reminiscent of the age of Alfred? It could. targeting oil tankers. All the empires claimed to rule the world. Technology has upgraded destruction. from Hamburg to Gaza. aircraft carriers. Houston or Chicago. Islamist extremists' infiltration of the EU would become irreversible. “A World without Power”. Europe. A coming retreat into fortified cities. that this Dark Age would be an altogether more dangerous one than the Dark Age of the ninth century. With ease. the World Bank. however. some. Technology has transformed production. With the end of states' monopoly on the means of violence and the collapse of their control over channels of communication. Incipient anarchy. The reality was political fragmentation. and China—retreating into their own regional spheres of influence . unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires. except where countries have shut themselves off from the process through tyranny or civil war. was not a global Christendom. If free flows of information and of means of production empower multinational corporations and nongovernmental organizations (as well as evangelistic religious cults of all denominations). The reality. Western investors would lose out and conclude that lower returns at home are preferable to the risks of default abroad. maybe even believed that they did. terrorists could disrupt the freedom of the seas.S. wherever they choose. and cruise liners. increasingly confined to a few Page 5 strategic cities such as Kabul and Pristina.” Surely their aspirations to global governance are fundamentally different from the spirit of the Dark Ages? Yet universal claims were also an integral part of the rhetoric of that era. visit. The wealthiest ports of the global economy—from New York to Rotterdam to Shanghai—would become the targets of plunderers and pirates. and capital—has raised living standards throughout the world. the International Monetary Fund. of course. say. it is the nonstate actors who truly wield global power—including both the monks and the Vikings of our time. Religious revivals. So what is left? Waning empires. as Europe's Muslim enclaves grew. it would inevitably become a less open society. though with some important and troubling differences. so it is now possible not just to sack a city but to obliterate it. Meanwhile. nor an all-embracing Empire of Heaven. For the world is much more populous—roughly 20 times more—so friction between the world's disparate “tribes” is bound to be more frequent. it seems. For more than two decades. increasing trans-Atlantic tensions over the Middle East to the breaking point. By contrast. leadership after the Second World War? The United Nations. As the United States sought to protect itself after a second September 11 devastates. less hospitable for foreigners seeking to work. An economic meltdown in China would plunge the Communist system into crisis. labor. unaware of the existence of other civilizations. too. . globalization—the integration of world markets for commodities. the writ of the international community is not global at all. in fact. while Western nations frantically concentrated on making their airports secure. The reversal of globalization— which a new Dark Age would produce—would certainly lead to economic stagnation and even depression. The defining characteristic of our age is not a shift of power upward to supranational institutions.AT: Heg Bad . humanity has entered an era characterized as much by disintegration as integration. the free flow of destructive technology empowers both criminal organizations and terrorist cells. It is. But what of the growing pretensions to autonomy of the supranational bodies created under U. or do business. In short. Certainly. These are the Dark Age experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving. one can imagine the world's established powers—the United States. The worst effects of the new Dark Age would be felt on the edges of the waning great powers.

It would be apolarity—a global vacuum of power. threats of regional hegemony by renegade states. the prospect of an apolar world should frighten us today a great deal more than it frightened the heirs of Charlemagne. On balance. such as nuclear proliferation. and the rule of law. this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. religious orders . Spring 1995.2. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival. In Africa. Lexis. First. and low-level conflicts. U. And far more dangerous forces than rival great powers would benefit from such a not-so-new world disorder Lack of hegemony  extinction Khalilzad. beginning in the Korean peninsula and Kashmir. such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems. including a global nuclear exchange. Rand Corporation 1995 (Zalmay Khalilzad. who would wish to leave their privately guarded safe havens to go there? For all these reasons. free markets. but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. The alternative to unipolarity would not be multipolarity at all. In Latin America. wretchedly poor citizens would seek solace in Evangelical Christianity imported by U. “Losing the Moment?” The Washington Quarterly 18.S. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself.) Under the third option.S. Be careful what you wish for. enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers. the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future.democracy.S. RAND Corporation. Second.Meanwhile. limited nuclear wars could devastate numerous regions. U. . the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -. If the United States retreats from global hegemony — its fragile self-image dented by minor setbacks on the imperial frontier—its critics at home and abroad must not pretend that they are ushering in a new era of multipolar harmony. the great plagues of AIDS and malaria would continue their deadly work. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system. Finally. The few remaining solvent airlines would simply suspend services to many cities in these continents. perhaps ending catastrophically in the Middle East. or even a return to the good old balance of power.

This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war.org//sub/pubs/deadly/diam_rpt. as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue. who organize to protest the destruction of their environments . Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one another. The very source of life on Earth. Democratic countries form more reliable. the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly. In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for investment. Everything we think of when we consider the current international order--free trade. India and Pakistan. American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned--between Greece and Turkey. p32-37) Throughout history. Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened. Most of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy. chemical and biological weapons continue to proliferate. The experience of this century offers important lessons." Consequently.( n3) So. growing democratization-is directly linked to U.S. Israel and Egypt. Hoover Institution. peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power -Rome.carnegie. Britain or the United States today. And so.S. American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism: Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because. Without U. PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN THE 1990S.” National Interest. Indonesia and Australia . accountability. They are more environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own citizens. U. 1995. open. p. Rather. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. once states are governed democratically. a robust monetary regime. it is important to note what those good things are. http://www. In addition.S. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies. and enduring trading partnerships. This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests. As country and western great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it). power behind it. They do not build weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another. democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United States. the global ecosystem. in general. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists.AT: Heg Bad .Heg Solves Democracy Heg promotes democracy Thayer 6 (Bradley A.. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced. and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency. primacy. Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against one another. power.S. Indeed they do.S. with its provisions for legality. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics. liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview. . power. most notably France and West Germany. “In Defense of Primacy. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse.S. spreading democracy helps maintain U. more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U.. Nov/Dec2006 Issue 86. Prof of Defense and Strategic Studies @ Missouri State University. popular sovereignty and openness.html) Nuclear. appears increasingly endangered. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U. During the Cold War. leadership. increasing respect for human rights. Second. South Korea and Japan. Stanford University. but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood. December. Democracy solves extinction Diamond 95 (Larry Diamond. Today. particularly war's worst form: great power wars. such as in Darfur. American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world. Democratic governments do not ethnically "cleanse" their own populations . The first has been a more peaceful world. it is because they are more open.

predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. If he slips once. the Iranian hostage mess. BC: Can Obama get any more mileage from his perpetually played “I’m not George W. Syria. Iran to get the bomb and begin to threaten ever so insidiously its Gulf neighborhood. whom it will bite or when. The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics.S. etc . a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. So the apologies and bows don’t go over well here at home. Weakness. Iran. history shows that threats must be confronted. Disaster. If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States. Venezuela will probably cook up some scheme to do a punitive border raid into Colombia to apprise South America that U. the communist inroads in Central America.” National Interest. Hanson: I think all three.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disasterobama/showLastReply Dr. The world can understand a kowtow gaffe to some Saudi royals. rogue states or rising powers. — are just waiting to see who’s going to be the first to try Obama — and whether Obama really will be as tenuous as they expect. in the next three years. — do you believe his global repositioning will cause the most damage? Dr. Hanson: Obama is one bow and one apology away from a circus . Bush” card or is that card past its expiration date? Dr. Germany. Italy. Washington cannot call a "time out". the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Iran.AT: Heg Bad – Heg Solves Deterrence Heg collapse emboldens rogues – it signals weakness Thayer. but not as part of a deliberate pattern. I think we got off the back of the tiger and now no one quite knows pressuring autonomous former republics to get back in line with some sort of new Russian autocratic commonwealth.. Most are starting to see that our relations with Britain. etc. poll-wise. wishing to redraw the existing landscape — whether China. for any president to keep scapegoating a prior administration. when we saw the rise of radical Islam. Hanson: Two considerations: 1) It’s hard (in addition to being shameless). Ditto the mea culpas. Whether they are terrorists. November/December. 2) I think he will drop the reset/“Bush did it” throat-clearing soon. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom. Indeed. North Korea. etc. and Russia will continue its energy bullying of Eastern Europe .resistnet. I would expect. it will be 1979 redux. India’s borders with both Pakistan and China will heat up. “In Defense of Primacy. To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression. politically speaking. however trivial. Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson. friendship and values are liabilities. Venezuela. 06 – Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. Russia. or France are no better under Obama — and probably worse — than during the Bush administration. Pakistan. does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat. Lexis) In contrast.” http://www. then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from Causes global wars that escalate – perception is key Victor Davis Hanson (Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution. one more will be really toxic. as regional hegemons. Stanford University) December 2009 “Change. as his polls continue to stay below 50 percent. Much of diplomacy rests on public perceptions. and it cannot hide from threats. Americans hate whining and blamegaming. Missouri State University (Bradley A. Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home". after a year. . We are now in a great waiting game. BC: With what country then — Venezuela. retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy. In other words. it seems to be a losing trope. thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half-pledges to defend its interests and allies. while insidiously There’s an outside shot that North Korea might do something really stupid near the 38th parallel and China will ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan.

say. In the coming decades. especially in littorals and low-‐altitudes close to enemy territory.S. The PLA may look increasingly respectable on paper. Ibid. . 1993-‐2008 Source: Congressional Research Service. an independent task force of more than thirty experts recently found “no evidence to support the notion that China will become a peer military competitor of the United States. and trends point toward continued unipolarity Beckley 2012 (Michael.‐2008. as measured by per capita income.‐denial” capabilities are outpacing U. p. the gap in defense spending likely understates the true military gap because U. the U. however. social. p. Iraq circa 1991.challengers can’t make up the power differential. None of this should be cause for chest-‐thumping.S. 71. China’s per capita income has declined relative to that of the United States.20: Share of World Arms Transfer Agreements. modernize. and military lead over China will be an enduring feature of international relations . China’s defense industry has also fallen further behind : in 2008.…The military balance today and for the foreseeable future strongly favors the United States and its allies. Dissertation found on google scholar) More important. Or China might continue to rise in place – steadily improving its capabilities in absolute terms while stagnating. China projected a huge army into Korea and killed tens of thousands of U. relative to the United States. PhD candidate at the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences at Columbia. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations. I found that developing countries systematically fail at warfare. helicopters and aircraft with simple antiaircraft artillery and no early warning radar. and political factors. but its performance in battle against the United States would not necessarily be much better than that of. The Unipolar Era: Why American Power Persists and China’s Rise Is Limited. soldiers.210 There is also reason to doubt the strategic importance of China’s capabilities because the United States may be able to launch effective attacks from positions beyond the reach of Chinese missiles and submarines.S. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations. some experts believe China’s “anti-area. military has vulnerabilities.AT: Heg Bad . or even declining. But this has always been the case. Indeed. 2001. weak adversaries can impose significant costs. efforts to counter them.S. and a greater willingness to bear costs.211 It is certainly true. 1993-‐2000. The best that can be done is to make plans for the future on the basis of present trends. If history is any guide.700 U. economic superiority literally gives the United States “more bang for the buck” – each dollar it spends on the military produces more force than each dollar China spends. Yes. China may surge out of its unimpressive condition and close the gap with the United States. China can “pose problems without catching up.S.. local knowledge.” compensating for its technological and organizational inferiority by utilizing asymmetric strategies. As noted earlier.212 Sixty years ago. that the U. share of the world conventional arms market surged to 68 percent while China’s share dropped below 1.5 percent.”207 Figure 3. From 1961 to 1968 North Vietnamese and Vietcong units brought down 1.S.206 Multivariate regressions suggest that military effectiveness is determined by a country’s level of economic development.209 There are reasons to doubt this claim – the Pentagon is developing sophisticated countermeasures and Chinese writings may purposefully exaggerate PLA capabilities. because they lack the economic capacity to maintain. Conclusion Change is inevitable. but a deeply embedded material condition that will persist for the foreseeable future . 73. not a passing moment in time. even after controlling for numerous material. regardless of the size of their defense budgets.208 In particular. technological. this growing economic gap is also a growing military gap. And what the trends suggest is that America’s economic. and integrate individual technologies into cohesive military systems.Its Sustainable Heg is sustainable. In a separate study. but it is often incremental and nonlinear. but evidence of American vulnerability is not the same as evidence of American decline.

S. But such expectations miss the fact that alliance politics always impose costs. there are also economic advantages associated with this privileged position in the security field. then the unipolar power would need more than 50 percent of the capabilities in the great power system to stave off a counterpoise. 62 Part of the answer lies in the United States' unusual path to primacy. the United States is by far the largest military spender and has actually United States’ lead over its nearest competitor is actually stronger in the security arena than it was in 1988 . Russia. . whereas China. The European Union. accounts for a larger share than did the Soviet Union in 1988 . on the other hand. The 2003 invasion of Iraq is a case in point but there are plenty of other examples. Moreover.AT: Heg Bad – No Counter Balancing No counterbalancing. But the European Union’s share does not amount to even half of the United States’ share of the world total.S. This is the figure William Thompson suggests in describing a near-unipolar system. . other countries benefiting from U. the Soviet Union maintained a rough balance with the United States. 60 In this light. costless activity assumed in some balance-of-power theories. Because of the superiority of American military power. . Spring. the absolute security threshold should not pose the same problem because of the logical limits in determining it. few will contest that the United States is in a league of its own when it comes to security affairs. It may be an exaggeration to suggest that the United States became a hegemon by accident. But what about the economic realm? The real test is whether the United States still towers over other countries economically. 19 As illustrated in table 2. Still. lexis) In principle.bandwagoning is more likely. The United States has already moved beyond the absolute threshold. Without even throwing the technological sophistication of American weaponry (or the collective action problems that many states confront when deciding to act in the national interest) into the balance.S.1. 61 Levy and Thompson raise the important question of why other states failed to balance against the United States when it was a rising power but not yet a hegemon. The next section considers hegemonic strategies that can soften opposition. the euro area still accounts for a lower share today than did the Soviet Union in 1988. primacy. 64 The extraordinarily wide gap in capabilities created by the fall of the Soviet Union left other states with little choice but to acquiesce. Iran. This is the claim that is likely to be the most carefully scrutinized. postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Politics. and Syria. or even Brazil and Pakistan. only accounts for 5 percent of the world total. Countries such as China. The Security Curve and the Structure of International Politics. primacy appear not to be worried about it. may not like U. the United States faces very few constraints in the security arena . No balancing – US lead is insurmountable and is growing Carla Norrlof (an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto) 2010 “America’s Global Advantage US Hegemony and International Cooperation” p. For decades. International Security. but the outcome was not planned. because at this level the sum of all the forces opposing the aspiring hegemon is insufficient to successfully balance it. The increased its share of world military spending in the last twenty years.maintaining the power gap key to prevent challengers Fiammenghi 2011 (Davide. it is clear that the United States is peerless in the security sphere and has strengthened its lead in the last two decades. the absence of balancing against the United States today appears less puzzling. it is useful to consider William Wohlforth's admonition: "If balancing were the frictionless. making balancing futile. Institutions. primacy resulted from the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union. History at the University of Bologna. and other states’ dependence on it for effective action. but they lack the capabilities to challenge it. the country with the second largest share today. accounting for 18 percent of the world total. 65 Meanwhile. 63 U. Although some question the utility of armed force. the Soviet Union was the closest rival in 1988. the absolute threshold should represent 50 percent of the capabilities in the system. . As I will also show in chapter 6. and is able to reap economic benefits as a result of its hegemonic position. A Neorealist Synthesis. Counting coalitions as potential balancers. Ideally." 59 It is therefore reasonable to assume that the absolute security threshold is around 45 percent of the military capabilities in the system.

and potentially makes the United States more likely to resort to force rather than persuasion to meet American objectives. 194) This unpopularity matters. One recent bipartisan report on American diplomacy concluded as much."34 . Even without China on the scene. Charm Offensive. fellow at the USC School of Public Diplomacy and the Pacific Council on International Policy and previous foreign editor at The New Republic.AT: Heg Bad – Link Turn Low US soft power leads to an increase in unilateralism. pg. the prospect of relying on military force to protect US national interests will increase. Kurlantzick 07 (Joshua. warning that if the "downward spiral [in diplomacy] is not reversed. America's declining popularity decreases Washington's soft power.

The current policy continues to clearly place at the forefront the sanctity and utility of a comprehensive economic and political embargo in the hopes that it helps to foment a change in regime and a peaceful transition to a democratic system of governance and a complimentary market economy. be its major partner in this effort owing to the fact that most if not all of . Florida International University. they will come up short.fiu. Treasurer of the American Political Science Association. PhD. U. First. Second. technology transfer and information sharing between these neighboring states but it possibly enhances the energy security of both states.S. proximity and affinity. the task still falls to the Cuban government.” http://cri.S. Report for the Cuban Research Institute. will play important roles in the funding of the effort to revitalize the Cuban energy sector.¶ The overview of the Cuban energy developments clearly and unambiguously reveals that the Castro regime has every intention of continuing to promote. It has significantly increased its international cooperation in the energy sector and continues to enhance its efforts to ensure energy security in these most uncertain of times. and only after normalization. As energy security concerns continue to percolate up to an increasingly important status in the realm of national security objectives we may begin to see the erosion of the hard position against the Cuban regime regardless of its leadership.S. from increasing oil production and refining capacity.edu/research/commissionedreports/oil-cuba-alvarado. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO. realized through a division of labor and dispersion of resources that serve as a hedge against natural disaster and market disruptions. and hence. Moreover. of which the U. Ultimately. because up until this point it hasn’t cost the United States much if anything. inasmuch as American corporations. the region.AT: Not Enough Oil US-Cuban joint oil production is the critical key to US oil selfsufficiency---there are massive amounts of offshore oil waiting to be tapped Benjamin-Alvadaro 6 (Jonathan. and no less significant. and international financial institutions. It suffices to say that the requisite investment and assistance will have a distinct American tinge to it.pdf) Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face of a continuing opposition by the United States to anything resembling what can be construed as “good news” for the Castro regime? Obviously. Two factors may alter this present situation. all states could derive benefit from the public information campaigns to promote energy efficiency and conservation presently being promoted in Cuba in the face of diminishing energy stocks and uncertain global markets. ensuring a stable energy future. design and implement energy development policies that will benefit Cuba for generations to come. to improving the nation’s energy infrastructure. but the cost will necessarily be spread through a number of sources that are predominately American because of strategic interests. This is important not only because it will allow direct foreign investment. “The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special. is the possibility of normalization of trade relations with the United States. Cuban officials are not averse and perhaps would prefer that the U. government agencies. is a major contributor. Cuba may indeed realize a bonanza from the offshore tracts that will allow it to possibly address its many energy challenges. But it stands to reason that no matter how successful these efforts are. Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha. Cuba is sparing no effort by instituting bottom-up and top-down policy initiatives to meet this challenge.

absent the type of infrastructural investment that is available to most developing states. . oil and gas comes from the United States. trust and cooperation in this critical issue area across the region.the cutting-edge technology in energy. It is remarkable that the Cuban energy sector is as vibrant as it presently is. For this reason alone. in large part because of the American economic embargo. the cost is significant and it stands to reason that the longer one waits to address the challenge at hand the higher the cost of modernizing the energy sector . it increases the long-term cost of the effort. the American role in assisting Cuba in this effort will be significant and every day that the task is put off. ¶ Finally. This should serve as an obvious point of entry into cooperation with the Cuban government and perhaps can serve as a catalyst for promoting confidence.

Gulf of Mexico. J. Cuba has at least as much incentive to ensure safe-drilling practices as does the United States. said.S.AT: Environment Turn Cuba won’t spill---they’ll be safe and U. n64 Lee Hunt. Cooperative Oxford Laboratory.S. It has had issues with oil spills.Environmental science prof.” online: http://assets. Steele components of marine systems are tightly coupled to physical factors.org/projects/marine. lexis Fears that Cuban offshore drilling poses serious environmental threats because of the proximity to the United States and the prohibition on U. allowing them to respond quickly to rapid environmental change and thus rendering them ecologically adaptable . PdVSA does not. ONGC. including extra equipment to shut off blown-out wells beyond what is required in the United States. technology transfer are overblown. study and thought into what will be required to safely drill. Former Director. and are generally seen as accomplished offshore operators . Specialist in Energy Policy at the Congressional Research Service. 2010. (Victor. involvement isn’t key Richard Sadowski 11. which may allow for adaptation to climate change.” Sustainable Development Law & Policy. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems and Global Climate Change. (1991) hypothesized that the biological . which is not abnormal for an oil company. "[t]he Cuban oil industry has put a lot of research. Policy Considerations. Petronas." n65 Thus. and Mark P.S. President of the Houston-based International Association of Drilling Contractors.S. PhD. Oceans are resilient Kennedy 2 .D. while the economic embargo of Cuba restricts American technology from being utilized. Petrobras and Statoil have extensive offshore experience ." and that "they are very knowledgeable of international industry practices and have incorporated many of these principles into their safety and regulatory planning and requirements. n66 Companies investing in Cuba have extensive offshore experience---no risk of spills Nerurkar & Sullivan 10 – Neelesh Nerurkar. According to Saipem. Some species also have wide genetic variability throughout their range. Hofstra University School of Law.31 Among other Cuban lease holders.30 Repsol has significant offshore experience. Maryland. “IN THIS ISSUE: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICT: CUBAN OFFSHORE DRILLING: PREPARATION AND PREVENTION WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE UNITED STATES' EMBARGO. including projects in the U.S. foreign sources have provided supplemental alternatives. November 29. Specialist in Latin American Affairs at the Congressional Research Service.pewclimate. & Pol'y 37. Scarabeo-9 is built to Norwegian standards.com/rpts/R41522_20101129. 12 Sustainable Dev.opencrs. http://www.pdf It is difficult to assess the likelihood of a spill . but its offshore project appears the furthest from seeing drilling activity among existing licenses. including projects in the U. and reports indicate that Cuba is taking safety seriously.. Gulf of Mexico.cfm) There is evidence that marine organisms and ecosystems are resilient to environmental change. Fall 2011. and PetroVietnam also have offshore experience. “Cuba’s Offshore Oil Development: Background and U. Sullivan. L. p.

Clupeidae) over the past two millennia to suggest that rapid declines and increases of up to 10-fold are relatively common in exploited fish stocks.1) Marine fish populations are more variable and resilient than terrestrial populations Great natural variability in population size is sometimes invoked to argue that IUCN Red List criteria.Marine life is resilient Dulvy 3 – Professor of Marine Science and Technology. 2002). Fish and Fisheries 4. as one example. Hutchings 2001a). while declines of 50 and 80% led to classifications of 'endangered' and 'critically endangered'.1997. 2000. Powles et al. Matsuda et al. Extinction vulnerability in marine populations. They argue that percent decline criteria are too conservative compared to the high natural variability of fish populations . (2000) cite the six-fold variation of the Pacific sardine population (Sardinopssagax. Newcastle (Nicholas. a decline of 20% within 10 years or three generations (whichever is longer) triggered a classification of 'vulnerable'. respectively. . These criteria were designed to be applied to all animal and plant taxa. Musick 1999. Powles et al. Clupeidae) and a nine-fold variation in northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax. It should. but many marine resource biologists feel that for marine fishes 'one size does not fit all' (see Hutchings 2001a). are too conservative for marine fishes (Hudson and Mace1996. For the (1996) IUCN list. be borne in mind that the variation of exploited populations must be higher than unexploited populations because recruitment fluctuations increasingly drive population fluctuations when there are few adults (Pauly et al. however.

AT: HEALTH CARE DA .

In the Soviet Union. finding an aspirin can be a chore. And an antibiotic will fetch a fortune on the black market. Jaime Suchlicki of the University of Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies explains that there is not just one system. towels. “The [Cuban] doctors are pretty well trained. whatever home is. In many hospitals patients must provide their own sheets. In Sicko. The foreigners-only facilities do a big business in what you might call vanity treatments: Botox. soap.Health Care DA – 2AC NO IMPACT – Cuban Health care cannot solve disease National Review 7/30/2007 “The Myth of Cuban Health Care” http://www. they must bring their own bedsheets. In the real Cuba. there are separate hotels. liposuction. another fever.) So deplorable is the state of health care in Cuba that old-fashioned diseases are back with a vengeance.” The equipment that doctors have to work with is either antiquated or nonexistent. When they travel to the island. NOT UNIQUE . Cubans were justifiably proud of their health-care system. Even if they have passed their expiry date. As you can well imagine. separate restaurants — separate everything. The second health-care system is for Cuban elites — the Party. the one that ordinary people must use — and it is wretched. And the facilities in which they are treated are First World: clean. official artists and writers. the military. He had to sell pork out of his home to get by. Testimony and documentation on the subject are vast. even sophisticated medications are plentiful and cheap. and typhoid fever. American doctors make sure to take as much equipment and as many supplies as they can carry. this causes widespread resentment in the general population. Then there is the real Cuban system.latinamericanstudies.” said the nurse. on errands of mercy.economist. A doctor in exile told the Miami Herald that. like the one for medical tourists. but they have nothing to work with. well supplied.” The tourists pay in hard currency. And dengue. Neglect of infrastructure means that almost 10% of the population lacks . Infant mortality ties with Canada’s as the lowest in the Americas. facilities on Cuba. Though the state still trains armies of doctors. These include tuberculosis. is a particular menace. state-of-the-art. If you have any pills in your purse.com/node/21558613 Until recently.” And their system. and so on. which provides oxygen to the regime. or about 25 dollars. there is excellent health care on Cuba — just not for ordinary Cubans. And the chief of medical services for the whole of the Cuban military had to rent out his car as a taxi on weekends. Remember. patients may be better off at home. Hospitals and clinics are crumbling. And basic medications are scarce. these people were called the “nomenklatura. People speak of “tourism apartheid. “Everyone tries to survive. “We have nothing. Pharmacies are generally illstocked. is top-notch. that there are many separate. in 2003. “I haven’t seen aspirin in a Cuban store here for more than a year. Doctors have been known to reuse latex gloves — there is no choice. A nurse spoke to Isabel Vincent of Canada’s National Post. whatever he does with it. or segregated.org/cuba/health-myth. leprosy.” And doctors are not necessarily privileged citizens in Cuba. If they do have to go to the hospital.” For example. But Cuba’s crumbling economy has put this system under stress. too. The first is for foreigners who come to Cuba specifically for medical care. Conditions are so unsanitary.htm To be sure. (Of course.Cuban health care is struggling – the economy and the embargo The Economist 7/14/2012 “Cuban Health Care: Under Investigation” http://www. putting Cuba ahead of many rich countries. food and dressings. a third of these are deployed overseas in “soft-power” missions. and breast implants. you can call a Cuban with a car privileged. who are eight times richer. he earned what most doctors did: 575 pesos a month. Indeed. It’s like operating with knives and spoons. One told the Associated Press. light bulbs — even toilet paper. an exiled doctor named Dessy Mendoza Rivero — a former political prisoner and a spectacularly brave man — wrote a book called ¡Dengue! La Epidemia Secreta de Fidel Castro. I’ll take them. or even two: There are three. food. This is known as “medical tourism. Dr. Life- expectancy matches that of Americans. Measles jabs have been near-universal for more than 20 years.” he explained. separate beaches.

told Xinhua that Cuba had made a great effort for the benefit of all its citizens. mammograms and cancer therapy is hard to replace. The Cuban government also offers scholarships to 20. As a doctor "I faced a choice of buying shoes or eating. advanced medical technology and latest scientific information.access to clean drinking water. But the main reason for the shortage of medical staff is low salaries.xinhuanet. having found no doctors in attendance at two health clinics. buying from third parties. Secondary-school enrolment is below its 1989 peak. maternal mortality has risen. Many drugs are in short supply. On a weekday morning in a village in the inappropriately named municipality of La Salud ("health"). The American embargo against the island does not help: equipment for radiology. There is a surfeit of humanities graduates and a shortage of agronomists and engineers. 37. says Julia Sweig of the Council on Foreign Relations. Although infant mortality has continued to fall." . The next step. Inequality” page proquest And now health services and education are becoming harder to access and getting worse . officials said. Lorenzo Llerena. A woman who gave her name as Grisel says she worked as a family doctor for just $23 a month. adding "due to the U. is financially strained by the embargo.000 Latin Americans to study medicine--all part of its obsessive search for international prestige. representing a significant impact on the tiny Caribbean nation." LINK TURN .S. where thousands of people receive free medical care every year from international specialists.htm HAVANA. the president. an American think-tank. He added some equipments were simply unattainable. according to official figures. will be to let transport and other service workers form cooperatives. who this month visited China and Vietnam. the Caribbean and Central America. this correspondent came across an elderly woman who had hurt her arm and was whimpering with pain. but now earns $40 a month in an improvised craft shop in Havana.com/english/health/2012-11/28/c_132004531. embargo. south of the capital." he said. "because they are manufactured in the United States." said Director of the institute Dr.S. In 2010. reported this week. Raúl Castro. She has two small children. "It provides us free medicine across the country. a patient." The embargo has caused Cuba a loss of more than 200 million dollars in the medical sector alone by 2011. which means higher prices for these products. currently restricted to farming.Embargo restricts Cuba from access to necessary medicines and tech Xinhua News 11/28/2012 “Cuban healthcare weakended by U. embargo” http://news. Hospital patients sometimes have to bring their own sheets.Health care declining – supplies & staff The Economist 3/24/2012 “The deal's off.Cuban medical authorities said on Tuesday a 50-year trade embargo imposed by the United States has severely undermined the country's healthcare system. If the health service is to thrive again. NOT UNIQUE . sometimes we do not have all the raw materials and tools to solve certain problems immediately. this sort of economic surgery will need to speed up.000 Cuban doctors and other health workers were working in 77 countries around the world. mostly in Venezuela but also in Africa. Cuban hospitals suffer restrictions in acquiring imported medical consumables and medicine. John Rhodes. There are reports of doctors starting to demand payment. "We must find alternatives that sometimes include purchasing from distant markets. is trying to revive the economy by cautiously transferring chunks of it into private hands. 27 (Xinhua) -. The public Institute of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery. A pair of children's shoes costs $13. which is highly expensive around the world. Nov.

45 The 300-page document is still the most comprehensive study on the issue.” 46 . the U.pdf The negative impact of the US embargo on the Cuban health care system and on the right to health of Cubans during the 1990s has been documented in a 1997 report by the American Association for World Health (AAWH). The AAWH found that “a humanitarian catastrophe has been averted only because the Cuban government has maintained a high level of budgetary support for a health care system designed to deliver primary and preventive health care to all of its citizens… Even so. lack of access to medicines and medical supplies. embargo of food and the de facto embargo on medical supplies has wreaked havoc with the island's model primary health care system.Embargo devastates health care system – supplies & lack of information exchange Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng.amnestyusa. and limited the exchange of medical and scientific information due to travel restrictions and currency regulations.LINK TURN . the AAWH identified that the embargo contributed particularly to malnutrition affecting especially women and children.S. poor water quality. Based on a fact-finding mission to Cuba.

to explain or blunt fears of a drop-off in care and to remind Cubans to be grateful that health care is still free despite persistent economic woes. 23 The ‘pesos pharmacies’ and local state hospitals are drastically under-stocked and thus access for the poor to needed medication is minimal. "Very often the media has been a leading indicator of where the economic reforms are going.827 for a heart transplant.global- politics.huffingtonpost. it seems very little of this actually remains in Cuba. and it became clear this month that Castro is looking for more ways to save when the newspaper voice of the Communist Party. Venezuela provides much-needed oil to Cuba and in exchange receives Cuban doctors and medical supplies. of which the poor and middle classes of Cuba are very unlikely to have. Every year Cuba exports huge amounts of medical aid." The theme of the Granma pieces. Scarcities now are common and sanitary conditions fall short of the ideal in decaying facilities where paint peels from the walls.co. not much by outside standards. 22 For example. but how much does it cost?" The answer is. but quite a bit for Cuba. which spends $190 million a year paying for its citizens' medical bills. 14 Cuba’s dual economy has a lot to do with why such disparity exists. Patients often bring their own bed sheets. "My guess is that there's some kind of policy statement to follow. challenges remain. But it's also raising the eyebrows of outside analysts. food and water for hospital stays. despite the service being free. 13 There are claims that hospitals are often in poor conditions and doctors have to bring in their own supplies and equipment to allow them to treat their patients. It's not a luxury service though. It's part of a wider media campaign that seems geared to discourage frivolous use of medical services.html HAVANA -. the government spends $2 each time a Cuban visits a family doctor. Pharmacies are often very poorly stocked and rationing of supplies is minimal. who predict further cuts or significant changes to what has been a pillar of the socialist system implanted after the 1959 revolution.uk/issue9/hanna/ However. published daily details for two weeks on how much the government spends on everything from anesthetics and acupuncture to orthodontics and organ transplants. because that's been the pattern. is not immune to cutbacks under Raul Castro's drive for efficiency." said Phil Peters. mostly to other Latin American countries for purely financial returns. a longtime Cuba observer at the Lexington Institute think tank. long considered a birthright by its citizens and trumpeted as one of the communist government's great successes. Medication and equipment is there and available but only to pay for in American dollars.Cuba's system of free medical care.Health Care DA – N/U Ext Health care system is crumbling – budget cuts Associated Press 8/25/2012 “Cuba Health Care: Budget Cuts Threaten Sector” Huffington Post http://www. posters in clinics and ads on state TV is the same: "Your health care is free.com/2012/08/27/cuba-healthcare_n_1832955. Cubans lack resources for necessary medicine and equipment Global Politics 2007 “The Challenges of Health Care in Cuba” http://www. Granma.14 for each X-ray and $6. Based on the official exchange rate. . electric fans. Healthcare may be free and available for all Cuban citizens but medication is not. 10 Despite the production of medical supplies and technology . $4. The health sector has already endured millions of dollars in budget cuts and tens of thousands of layoffs.

sanctions put Cubans' health at risk” http://edition.health/ LONDON. "The president believes it makes strategic sense to hold on to some inducements we can use in dealing with a Cuban government if it shows any signs of seeking a normalized relationship with us and begins to respect basic human rights.S. The embargo restricts the export of medicines and medical equipment from the U.The U. which have been in place since 1962.cnn. "In general. “This prevents them from having access to the latest pharmaceutical and technological advances.5 percent of Cuba's children under three years old. presidents on an annual basis since 1978. embargo immoral and said it should be lifted.S.” Embargo prevents access to tech and medicine CNN 9/02/2009 “Report: U. is adopting a new policy toward Cuba.amnestyusa.-owned company abroad. which is due for renewal on September 14.. and from any U. Over the past decades.com/index.S.S.cuba.S. In April this year President Obama lifted restrictions that had prevented U. A U." She also said the embargo affects the way doctors think about the future. She told CNN. Amnesty International SecretaryGeneral Irene Khan called the U. Learns About its Healthcare System” http://surfky. she said. leaving medical equipment without replacement parts and patients without continuity of medications. the embargo has a sweeping effect on Cuban healthcare . The Act has been reviewed by U. An Amnesty report examines the effects of the sanctions.S. In 2007. ." Khan said. and sending them remittances.com/2009/HEALTH/09/01/amnesty.AT: Health Care DA – Link Turn Ext Embargo prevents access to necessary tech SurfKY News 4/15/2013 “UK Delegation Visits Cuba. However. "Doctors in Cuba always worry that an international supplier will be bought out by a U.S.S. so many of their facilities are very basic. an Amnesty researcher for the Caribbean region. company. "It's preventing millions of Cubans from benefiting from vital medicines and medical equipment essential for their health. hospitals and day care centers is contributing to a high prevalence of iron deficiency anemia. human rights group Amnesty International alleged Wednesday. Gail Reed is international director of MEDICC (Medical Education Cooperation with Cuba). Amnesty said that while not renewing the Act would not in itself end the embargo against Cuba. told CNN that although medicines and medical supplies can be licensed for export to Cuba. Gerardo Ducos.S.php/communities/303-lexington-fayette-county/29814-ukdelegation-visits-cuba-learns-about-its-healthcare-system “Many of the problems with Cuba’s health care system are associated with the American embargo. Amnesty also called on President Obama to not renew the Trading with the Enemy Act. the condition affected 37. according to UNICEF. it would send a clear message that the U. Cuban and global health communities. England (CNN) -. Embargo restricts health care – equipment & chemicals Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www. State Department spokeswoman would not comment on the report because she hadn't read it. I would say the people most affected have been cancer and HIV-AIDS patients. the conditions governing the process make their export virtually impossible. but there are major shipping costs and logistical challenges to contend with.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. a non-profit organization that encourages cooperation among U.S.pdf The provision of health care has also suffered from the limitations and restrictions imposed by the embargo on the procurement of basic and specialized medical equipment and chemical components needed for the production of generic medicines. trade embargo on Cuba is endangering the health of millions by limiting Cubans' access to medicines and medical technology." Reed said.” Berres said. Cuba can import these products from other countries." The Amnesty report also cites United Nations data that says Cuba's inability to import nutritional products for schools. citizens from visiting relatives in Cuba.S.

Embargo hurts health care – hampers UN programs Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.64 . The financial burden and commercial barriers have led to shortages or intermittent availability of drugs.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. Health and health services depend on functioning water and sanitation infrastructure.pdf The increase in the costs for purchasing the necessary medicine or medical materials is hampering the implementation of UN development projects and programmes.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. It has also hindered the renovation of hospitals.amnestyusa. medicines. clinics and care centres for the elderly. on electricity and other functioning equipment such as X-ray facilities or refrigerators to store vaccines. The repercussions of these difficulties are ultimately felt by the intended beneficiaries of these programmes. who face long delays before having access to adequate medicine or treatment. equipment and spare parts.pdf The impact of economic sanctions on health and health services is not limited to difficulties in the supply of medicine. Embargo hurts health care – infrastructure Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.amnestyusa.

policy. on the other hand. as applied to humanitarian organizations. it will still have to be reconciled with an enduring hostile relationship between both countries . humanitarian assistance is the very type of soft power engagement that might help thaw relations between Washington and Havana. On the one hand. However.at least. The perception in Cuba is that the United States is responsible for the chronic humanitarian crisis that has afflicted the island since 1989. since so much of America's humanitarian soft power resources lie outside of government in the private sector and civil society.S.S. which aims to isolate and destabilize the regime through economic sanctions. n79 any increase in humanitarian assistance might also require a proportional loosening of the trade and travel restrictions . n78 While any increase in humanitarian assistance will no doubt be viewed as a positive step in the right direction.AT: LIFT TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS CP Removing travel restrictions alone is insufficient to solve the soft power advantave advantage – removing the whole embargo is key Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The only problem with offering more humanitarian aid to Cuba is that it seemingly contradicts current U.[*215] Doesn’t solve hard power – lifting the embargo is key to cooperating on oil drilling – that’s the key internal link to hard power .

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