Plan

The United States federal government should end its embargo on
Cuba

LEADERSHIP ADV

LEADERSHIP ADV – 1AC
SCENARIO ONE: SOFT POWER:
Anti-Americanism is growing in Latin America – extending an olive
branch to Cuba is necessary to re-establish our regional soft power
Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy

Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis
Anti-Americanism has become the political chant de jour for leaders seeking longterm as well as short-term gains in Latin American elections. In Venezuela, the
anti-American rhetoric spewed by Hugo Chavez masks his otherwise autocratic
tendencies, while countries like Bolivia and Ecuador tilt further away from
Washington, both rhetorically and substantively. The former expelled the U.S. Ambassador in October 2008, and the latter
has refused to renew Washington's lease on an airbase traditionally used for counter-narcotics missions. The systemic
neglect for eight years during the Bush Administration meant that political capital
was never seriously spent dealing with issues affecting the region . Because of this, President
Bush was unable to get much headway with his proposal to reform immigration, and his free trade agreement with Colombia
encountered significant opposition in Congress. Recent examples of U.S. unilateralism, disregard

for
international law and norms, and a growing financial crisis, have all been seized
by a new generation of populist Latin American leaders who stoke anti-American
sentiment.
The region, however, is absolutely critical to our national interest and security. Over
thirty percent of our oil comes from Latin America - more than the U.S. imports
from the Middle East. Additionally, over half of the foreign-born population in the United States is Latin American,
meaning that a significant portion of American society is intrinsically tied to the region. n1 These immigrants, as well as their sons
and daughters, have already begun to take their place amongst America's social, cultural, and political elite.
Just south of America's borders, a deepening polarization is spreading throughout

the entire region. In the last few years ideological allies in Bolivia, Ecuador, and
Venezuela have written and approved new constitutions that have consolidated the
power of the executive, while extending - or in Venezuela's case eliminating presidential term limits. In Venezuela the polarization has been drawn along economic lines, whereby Chavez's base
of support continues to be poor Venezuelans. In Bolivia the polarization has been drawn along racial lines: the preamble to the new
Bolivian constitution, approved in January 2009, makes reference to the "disastrous colonial times," a moment in history that
Bolivians of Andean-descent particularly lament. Those regions in Bolivia with the most people of European or mixed descent have
consistently voted for increased provincial autonomy and against the constitutional changes proposed by President Morales.
Perhaps due to its sweeping changes, the new Constitution was rejected by four of Bolivia's nine provinces. n2 Like Bolivia, Latin
America is still searching for its identity.
[*191] Traditionally the U.S. has projected its influence by using varying

combinations of hard and soft power. It has been a long time since the U nited States
last sponsored or supported military action in Latin America, and although highly contextdependent, it is very likely that Latin American citizens and their governments would view any
overt display of American hard power in the region negatively. n3 One can only imagine the
fodder an American military excursion into Latin America would provide for a leader like Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, or Evo Morales
of Bolivia. Soft power, on the other hand, can win over people and governments without

resorting to coercion, but is limited by other factors.
The key to soft power is not simply a strong military, though having one helps, but rather an
enduring sense of legitimacy that can then be projected across the globe to
advance particular policies. The key to this legitimacy is a good image and a
reputation as a responsible actor on the global and regional stage. A good
reputation and image can go a long way toward generating goodwill, which
ultimately will help the U.S. when it tries to sell unpopular ideas and reforms in
the region. n4

US influence in Latin America is key to prevent Chinese crowd in – the impact is cyber war Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. that number had increased to $ 102 billion. America's reputation [*192] in the region has suffered. In 2007.S. To that end. n6 As a result of its continuing tensions with Havana. n120 As China's role in Latin America increases. China also [*224] recently displaced the U. and repair America's image. and would go a long way toward creating goodwill. but also win over new allies. will have to pass a Cuba litmus test of its own. environmental scientists seek out "keystone species.S." But now the tables have turned. who look to us for "ideas and solutions. had to pass the Cuba "litmus test. Latin American governments that hoped to endear themselves to the U. but particularly in Latin America. of the important relationship between the U." These are organisms that. n7 For fifty years. but also the Latin American people. not lectures. Costa Rica dropped its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. Although this proposal focuses heavily on Cuba. must repair its image by going on a diplomatic offensive and reminding. will remain the major powerbroker in the Americas for decades to come. America must once again be admired if we are going to expect other countries to follow our example. In 2008. or barometers of. n118 Even despite the current financial crisis." whereby China steps in to fill the gap left by America's absence. despite their small size. The Chinese government has invested a tremendous amount of soft power in Latin America . earn respect. China's interest in Latin America is also based on its increasingly assertive global political agenda. and the Obama Administration. To be sure. despite its size and isolation. Cuba. American clout correspondingly decreases in terms of relative power. the U. It charts China's growing relationship with Latin America and promises increased cooperation in scientific and technological research. n8 In short. function as lynchpins for.S. but will increasingly have to make room for a new player. trade between China and Latin America hovered around $ 13 billion. a move heavily courted by Chinese officials. having disproportionately dominated Washington's policy toward the region for decades. and by 2008 total trade was valued at $ 140 billion. Washington will have to rely more heavily on diplomatic initiatives that shore up credibility rather than simply economic incentives and disincentives. the entire system's stability .In order to effectively employ soft power in Latin America. in regions all around the world. Given this diminishing economic position. is a keystone nation in Latin America. cross-cultural educational exchanges. every country in Latin America is a potential friend.S." n5 When analyzing ecosystems. Many of the problems facing Latin America today cannot be addressed in the absence of U. China quickly displaced the United States as that country's largest export market. as Brazil's biggest trading partner. President Hu rewarded Costa Rica's new policy by visiting San Jose and signing a free trade agreement in 2010. n119 China also timed the release of a new policy paper on Sino-Latin American relations to coincide with President Hu's most recent trip to the region. n115 American disinterest in Latin America has convinced many countries to adopt a "Pacific view. with an annual trade growth of 30% since 2001. and Latin America. but in 2007. as has its ability to deal with other countries. such as bilateral trade agreements .S. Washington will have to not only strengthen its existing relationships in the region. .S. warming relations with Cuba would have a reverberating effect throughout Latin America. as well as political and economic exchanges. n116 After signing a free trade agreement with Chile. both economically and politically. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The absence of a strong American presence over the last eight years has also given China the opportunity to step in as a major player. if it wants to repair America's image in the region. Working with other nations to address these challenges is the best way to shore up legitimacy. where it is now the continent's third largest trading partner. not just Latin America's leaders. trade between China and Latin America is likely to grow during the next five years. the U. n117 In 2000. leadership and cooperation.

Alternatively. Copeland's (1996. on a dyadic level. such as electrical power. Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. Cyber-attack would destroys the US economy Vatis. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. And that dependence makes them vulnerable to an attack which . Congressional Testimony to the Subcommittee on Crime in the House and the Senate Subcommittee on Criminal Justice Oversight.S.S. 1995).and by that I mean those services that are vital to our economy and to our national security. p. although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Development of such capabilities may already be happening. on a visit to Cuba. Department of Defense. Federal News Service. n125 But China's leadership is pragmatic.(7B) China's Strategic Interest in Cuba China's presence in Cuba is rather significant: after Venezuela. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic. Ed.are now all dependent on computer technology for their very operations.-Sino relations. Separately. came from China. Economic decline causes global war Royal 10 (Jedediah. Economics of War and Peace: Economic. An increased Chinese presence in Cuba might be a strategic move by Beijing to later leverage their presence on the island for a change in America's Taiwan policy. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour . The same basic types of cyber attacks that therefore have become attractive to criminals are also attractive to foreign intelligence services . on the systemic level. 1999). it is also a national security problem.3 billion worth of goods exchanged. 2/29. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. which begs the question: what is China getting in return for all this assistance? If China is cooperating with Cuban intelligence to spy on the United States. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one preeminent leader to the next. China is neurotic about the functional American presence in Taiwan and has made its intentions for the island known to everyone. This is because our nation's critical infrastructures -. a former Soviet espionage base just outside of Havana. n123 Moreover. China has a huge presence at Lourdes. China will have a stake in Cuba. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U. transportation and government operations -. and also to terrorists and hostile foreign nations. the only thing standing between Beijing's re-appropriation of Taipei is Washington. As such. “Economic Integration. China is Cuba's second-largest trading partner with $ 2. Legal and Political Perspectives. Second. 213-215) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. as well as half its annual output of nickel. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major. exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. l/n) And this is not just a criminal problem. which is Cuba's top export. but also to invest $ 80 million in the island's health industry. n122 In 2008. a greater American presence on the island would be needed to fully understand the scope of this rather disturbing operation. medium and small powers. dyadic and national levels. who seek new ways to obtain sensitive government or proprietary information. Several notable contributions follow.S. First. China has an incentive to develop technological capabilities in Cuba. China purchases over 400. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Feaver. n124 Another former Soviet base in Bejucal may now also house both Cuban and Chinese intelligence analysts. if successful. telecommunications. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent states. including almost all of the computers. In the unlikely event of hostile engagement with the United States. not ideological. where in 2004 Hu Jintao visited and confirmed that most of the technology housed there. as long as Taiwan is a [*225] thorny issue for U. Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed to not only defer for ten years some of Cuba's debt payments. which can be used in tandem with cyber and communications warfare against Washington. FBI. could deny service on a very broad scale. Goldsmith and Brauer.000 tons of Cuban sugar. who are bent on attacking U. interests. 2000 (Michael. n121 In fact.

However. Moreover. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. and cannot be overstated. as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. (Blomberg & Hess.-Cuba relations is obviously of smaller import than many other issues currently affecting the world (i. which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions.5 This implied connection between integration. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict. While the issue of U. 2004). p. which in turn returns the favour. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. Aside from the strategic importance of this issue. Washington must find a way to cooperate with its neighbors. the threat is nevertheless real.S. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. proliferation of weapons of mass destruction). Latin America's importance to the United States is growing by the day.of states. Wang (1996).4 Third. the likelihood for conflict increases. Although the chances of a post-Castro Cuba becoming a failed state are slim. Gelpi (1997).-Latin America relationship. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis [*195] Third. They write: The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. addressing these concerns might also prevent more serious problems in the future. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic. the ailing economy. and Blomberg. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other. a new . climate change. the island could plunge into civil war. dyadic and national levels. Furthermore. if the expectations of future trade decline. or endure a combination of each.S.S.. but could potentially lead to a disproportionately high return by making regional cooperation more likely. & Weerapana.S. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. and thus weak Presidential popularity. Hess. The plan leads to broader cooperation and influence in the region and globally Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. n20 In order to confront any of the major world issues facing the United States. Hess. 2002. These three reasons combine for a perfect storm: to the extent that a healthy U. DeRouen (1995). the Obama Administration ignores Latin America at its own peril. Miller (1999). sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. face a humanitarian crisis. particularly during periods of economic downturn. However. and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. "Diversionary theory" suggests that. recent economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. who generally view U. the former should be pursued with an unprecedented vigor. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level.S. policy toward Cuba as the most glaring symbol of its historic inability to constructively engage the region. If the state were to collapse. experience a massive migration to Florida.-Cuban relationship would mean a healthier U. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources. one that has been absent for the last fifty years. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. addressing it would also involve correspondingly less effort than those issues. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. In summary.e. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. become a major drug trafficking center. crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

Brazil organized the first-ever global ¶ environmental meeting in 1992 and. hosted the second international meeting on climate change in Cancún in ¶ 2010.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL. Mexico¶ The United States is handicapped by its inability to devise a climate¶ change policy.” April. it is important¶ that the United States and the region increase their attention to reshaping¶ regional institutions to better align them with current realities and ¶ challenges and to make them more effective. n21 To address the issues confronting the United States vis-a-vis Latin America (i. the main proliferation challenges today are found in developing¶ and unstable parts of the world. Mexico. and ¶ the Middle East uprisings. 2012 (IAD is a think tank hosting 100 leaders and experts from the US and Latin America. Because of this. There is no doubt that America's diminished image in Latin America means that it will face additional difficulty when trying to accomplish its regional goals. Brazil and other Latin¶ American nations are assuming enhanced roles on an array of global political. Online: http://www. The hemisphere’s institutional¶ architecture is in great flux. Although the United States and Latin America¶ are often at odds on drug policy. Washington must restore its heavily damaged image and regain its place as the region's trendsetter and leader.¶ already has assumed a prominent position on climate change and ¶ is active in global policy debates. they have mutual interests and goals¶ that should allow consultation and collaboration on a new.¶  Many countries in the region give priority to climate change challenges.¶ Even as Latin America expands its global reach and presence. In recent years it has become far more active on global ¶ issues of concern to the United States.e. the environment.¶ Argentina. this year. “Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America. The United States and Brazil have ¶ clashed over such issues as Iran’s nuclear program. and in efforts to¶ rebuild and provide security for Haiti. For¶ example. Latin America has the¶ opportunity to participate more actively in nonproliferation efforts. it should support coordination on the presumption¶ of shared interests on a critical policy challenge . Still. labor and human rights). including the World Bank ¶ and the International Monetary Fund.S. trade. The Eight Recommendations found in this proposal are suggestions that the Obama Administration should consider as it moves to reengage Latin America. drugs.¶ This may position them as a voice in international debates on this topic.¶ Mexico of emerging economies¶ in various international financial agencies. and Canada also participate in the G-20).. This cooperation and influence is key to solve existential crisis Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report. Brazil could play a pivotal role. In that context.¶ The importance of the Amazon basin to worldwide climate concerns¶ gives Brazil and five other South American nations a special role to play. and there is growing need for decisions about¶ priorities and objectives. Several for which US and Latin¶ American cooperation could become increasingly important include:¶  As the world’s lone nuclear-weapons-free region. they align on some related goals .¶ Latin Americans are taking more active leadership on drug policy in the¶ hemisphere and could become increasingly influential in global discussions ¶ of drug strategies. and other countries of¶ the region in world forums addressing shared interests .¶ Although US and Latin American interests do not always converge¶ on non-proliferation questions. such as in the World Trade Organization and the G-20 (Mexico. but they have cooperated when their interests ¶ converged.¶ Brazil has the broadest international presence and influence of any Latin¶ American nation.thedialogue. Washington has worked with Brazil ¶ and other Latin American countries to raise the profile In addition to economic and financial matters.-Cuban policy should embrace not only America's uncanny ability to reinvent itself. the United States should seek greater¶ cooperation and consultation with Brazil. Part of America's greatness is its ability to inspire practical solutions in people. Resolving America's "Cuba problem" is a low-cost/high-reward strategy that would inject new energy and credibility into America's image. south-south connections¶ are crucial.and comprehensive policy toward Cuba can help prevent these nightmare scenarios from materializing. but also the pragmatism that has made America so great to begin with. . as well as in the leakage—or transfer¶ of nuclear materials—to terrorists.pdf) Many of the issues on the hemispheric agenda carry critical global ¶ dimensions. more effective¶ approach to the problem. will host Rio+20. Any new U. ¶ environmental. non-proliferation. and security issues.

Mexico. and may be central to. universities.when Fidel Castro officially stepped aside as Cuba’s president. ¶ The energy-security environment for the United States is at a critical juncture. is in need of significant repair and modernization (its many energy projects notwithstanding).S. it may pave the way to establishing much-needed familiarity and confidence across these communities .S. Since 2004.S. too. directly and indirectly. representatives from American companies. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO. and discussed across a number of settings where the interested parties are now familiar with and well versed in the agendas and opportunities that exist in this arena. Cuban energy authorities have made it clear that their preferred energy development scenario includes working closely with the U. Cuba’s energy infrastructure.art U. Brookings Institution book. policy to allow investment and assistance in Cuba’s energy sector are a precondition for international entities to make significant investments . energy experts on the technical acumen and capability of Cuban energy officials has been overwhelmingly positive . energy security and satisfying energy demand.S. and think tanks have had the opportunity to meet with Cuban energy officials.S. decisionmakers must look dispassionately at potential energy partners in terms of the role they might play in meeting political. yet this change share of the financial burden of upgrading Cuba’s energy infrastructure will fall to the United States.S. Mexico and Venezuela. because deterioration of the infrastructure continues and eventually pushes up the cost of renovation and replacement. U. the opportunity to advance relations in the energy arena appears to be ripe. The assessment from U. This will deploy an underused segment of the Cuban workforce.S. construction. economic. and geostrategic objectives of U. a movement toward energy cooperation and development with Cuba is consistent with. The Obama administration has signaled that it wants to reinvigorate inter-American cooperation venture partners on the island. energy independence is not attainable. because U. the price tag is estimated to be in the billions of dollars.S. after fifty years of enmity. that objective . The critical need to improve the integrity of the U. not to mention since 2008. The Cubans have accumulated experience and training from past energy cooperation projects and exchanges in Cuba. government and the Obama administration see fit to shift its policy so as to allow broader participation of American academics and practitioners in the energy field to attend conferences and meet with Cuban energy officials. more flexible view on the quest for resources—a view that does not shun a source from a potential strategic partner for purely political reasons. it would remain dependent on oil imports to meet its existing and future demand. PhD. trade organizations. 2010. Now. even if the United States were to choose to exploit all of its domestic energy resources. and engineering firms to subcontract work to an emerging class of Cuban firms specializing in these areas. The productive capacity of two of the United States’ largest oil suppliers. energy supply requires a much broader. Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha. It also stands to reason that the lion’s Changes in U. the policy tools available to deal with energy supply disruptions are increasingly inadequate. Treasurer of the American Political Science Association. oil technologies. the variability of weather patterns. The scope and objectives of Cuban energy development schemes have been disseminated. In public discussions.S.SCENARIO TWO: HARD POWER: Lifting the embargo is essential to US-Cuba oil cooperation – key to solve independence from Middle East oil Benjamin-Alvadaro 10 – Jonathan Benjamin-Alvadaro. and the supporting energy infrastructure in both countries is in need of significant revitalization. and the United States needs to articulate a new vision of how best to manage international energy interdependence. Florida International University. there is a significant lack of trust and confidence between the United States and Cuba. Venezuela. and other countries in the region. “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation” Conclusion and Recommendations Undoubtedly. dissected. and the overall dismal state of the global economy create a setting of instability and uncertainty that requires close attention to the national security interests of the United States vis-à-vis energy. oil and gas industry and using state-of-the. has declined.9 Should the U.¶ and integration .¶ The United States and Cuba will have a unique opportunity to employ a highly educated and competent cadre of Cuban engineers and technicians to work in critical areas of the energy sector. and allow U. Anecdotal evidence suggests that these contacts and exchanges have been wildly successful because of the Cubans’ high level of competence and strong work ethic. This is plain from the almost quaint maintenance of a sanctions regime that seeks to isolate Cuba economically and politically but hardly reflects the dramatic changes that have occurred on the island since 1991. . Delaying work on many of these projects increases costs.S. The Cubans have gained invaluable knowledge and experience through the operation and construction of energy facilities in collaboration with their joint- The United States possesses few options when it comes to balancing the various risks to U.S. energy security . The vagaries of the politics in the region. Report for the Cuban Research Institute. oil. In particular.

as it has in the case of food and medicine sales to Cuba. and this could alter the global distribution of power. demographic. not to mention metals. India. 2011.S. " U.¶ U.S. and Brazil have profound political. If U. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992.nationalreview. if it can demonstrate that it can serve as a partner (or at a minimum.S.S. If we don’t get our economic house in order. why would relative American power abruptly reverse course compared with China's simply because one has and the other lacks oil ? I emailed Morse to find out. downstream. is in a much stronger position. it's hard to write off an economy that has these two pillars of long-term strength. foreign policy for the near and long term.S.S.S. Oil independence strengthens U. Mexico and a handful of other friendly countries such as Brazil. their economies are growing faster than ours. November 1. ¶ The stakes are high.S. Trade and investment in the energy sector in Cuba have been severely constrained by the conditions of the embargo placed on the Cuban regime. These constraints also affect foreign firms seeking to do business in Cuba because of the threat of penalties if any of these firms use technology containing more than 10 percent of proscribed U. which is going to be overwhelmingly dependent on energy imports. about to be energy-independent?”. ¶ This discussion is intended to help distill understanding of U. February 8. But according to Citigroup oil economist Edward Morse (quoted by Crooks). China might or might not have access to cheap energy feedstocks and to virtual self-sufficiency .foreignpolicy. This does not mean that the United States has to dismantle the nearly fiftyyear-old embargo against Cuba. a supporter) of the Petrocaribe energy consortium. The U. Crooks finds Even if the most optimistic hopes are not fulfilled."¶ But what does this mean in the big picture? First. Japan for example imports 98 percent of its oil. the higher the cost to all the investors. government assistance will constitute a large The longer that work is delayed. “The Economy and National Security. http://oilandglory. To be sure one can do it for a long period of time. but the United States will have to make special provisions that create commercial and trade openings for energy development that serve its broad geostrategic and national security goals. or is the U. leadership LeVine 11 Steve LeVine is a writer for Foreign Policy. stands an excellent chance of access to both. and undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of escalation. These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world." he one can imagine a future in which the U. which will then potentially cut into the returns from such undertakings. The closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify geopolitical competition among major powers . social.¶ I was left puzzled by that formulation of how the world works -. and logistical resources in Cuba that simultaneously addresses Petrocaribe objectives. Compare it to a country such as China. So US global leadership is vital to protecting the globe from wars Khalilzad 11 – Zalmay Khalilzad.S. The United States could provide much-needed additional investment capital in the development of upstream. and the United Nations during the presidency of George W.S. In modern . crude oil imports account for 44 percent of the U. The U. but not readily forever. energy dependence is a severe handicap for being able to do that. Crooks writes.currently. imports oil only from Canada. policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow. China imports much of its oil and natural gas.” online: http://www. Iraq. Because the policies can be considered works-in-progress. His reply:¶ Superpower status really does depend over time on lots of abilities to deliver public goods for a wide variety of others. and adds storage and transit capabilities while enhancing regional cooperation and integration modalities. relations with Venezuela.S. Still. strategic energy policy under a set of shifting political and economic environmental conditions in Cuba and its implications for U. we have seen a parade of relatively resource-poor nations carve out significant global economic and geopolitical places for themselves over the decades. was a superpower in the 20th century but won't be in the 21st doesn't hold up so well now. America's trade balance would improve considerably -.S.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-securityzalmay-khalilzad We face this domestic challenge while other major powers are experiencing rapid economic growth. technologies needed for oil and gas exploration and production. as a global superpower :¶ The notion that the solace in the volumes further afield. the United States ambassador to Afghanistan. cooperation with Cuba in energy just may create an opportunity for the United States to improve its portion of the needed investment capital to undertake this colossal effort. diversifies regional refining capacity.S. “Is this group think. trade deficit. we risk a new era of multi-polarity. American private investment and U.S. which would erode millions of barrels of oil a day. increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another.com/posts/2011/11/01/is_this_group_think_or_is_the_us_a bout_to_be_energy_independent?wpisrc=obinsite What could undermine the prognoses is if the result is relatively low oil prices. it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge. and a resumption of America's gluttonous gasoline appetite.since oil is fungible and can be bought freely by anyone with the money. perhaps. and economic problems. Even though countries such as China.implies a large American footprint. 2011. but still in the Western Hemisphere: " writes. an understanding of possible outcomes is important to those crafting future policy and making changes in the policymaking milieu. it also means a new day for the U.

at denying the United States access to the seas around China. Under this scenario. China’s expansive territorial claims — and provocative statements and actions following crises in Korea and incidents at sea — have roiled its relations with South Korea. long-range stealth aircraft. ultimately. Alternatively. Still. weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the U nited States. hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions. Asia in particular is likely to emerge as a zone of great-power competition. India. multi-polar systems have been unstable. Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars. Without an American security blanket. regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats. miscalculation . By contrast. there would be a heightened possibility of arms races.¶ American retrenchment could have devastating consequences . Even as cooperative economic ties in the region have grown. and Southeast Asian states.¶ As rival powers rise.S. and anti-satellite capabilities. Either way. China’s strategic modernization is aimed. leadership . or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict . in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers.history. Japan. . Beijing’s economic rise has enabled a dramatic military buildup focused on acquisitions of naval. the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U. with their competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers. the United States is the most significant barrier facing Chinese hegemony and aggression. cruise. and ballistic missiles.

Force is not a long-term solution. As Charles Krauthammer wrote. and instead has had to resort to threatening sanctions at the United Nations or even the possibility of strikes against Iran. in addition to rooting out and destroying individual militant cells. can quickly become a plague on the United States' house. proquest. war. Lennon. in part because America's image in Turkey was so poor.fend vital American interests. 419. "We made it plain that even if no one followed us. But because we have demonstrated astonishing military power and the will to de. is tempting.S. the potential backlash against American companies. as demonstrated on September 11. . the White House has been unable to lead a multinational effort to halt Iran's nuclear program. and freedom of movement-against it. 104. outbreak of disease. visiting scholar in the Carnegie Endowment’s China Program. J. Not because we have embraced multilateralism. or elimination-requires the help of others. the growing attractiveness of China and Europe. trouble on the far side of the planet. lead. it is harder for leaders in these countries to openly embrace counterterrorism cooperation with the United States. Washington must increasingly resort to the other option Nye discusses-force. however. silencing critics and creating a bandwagon effect among friends. legitimate broker in the talks. unilaterally if necessary. and religious fanatics use the nation's very strengths-its openness. human trafficking. and WMD threats. senior fellow at CSIS. During the war itself. to play a major staging role. while empowering its enemies. successfully applied. Thus. a fact that even the White House recognizes. 284) Why should the United States care that some criticize its policies and others resent its power? Following U. In addition. terrorism. Iss. In the run-up to the Iraq War.” Current History. such as economic disaster. human trafficking. pg. Washington has had to allow China to play a central role. pg. disease. US leadership is key to solving the economy. Vol.fies U. Joshua Kurlantzick. the transnational nature of the problems the United States faces defies unilateral solutions. Washington is simply less able to persuade others. however. ership is essential to meet these threats successfully.S."2 Military power remains the foundation of U.” The Battle for Hearts and Minds: edited by Alexander T. a longtime US ally. concluding that unilateral might makes right. military success in Afghani. Surprise: others followed. and drug trafficking can only be managed through forms of multilateral cooperation that depend on America's ability to persuade other nations. nontraditional security threats such as disease.stan. “Winning the War of Ideas. Newer. or the threat of force. Rogue states. with a decline in soft power. proliferation. Blinken 03 (Antony J. the United States has failed to obtain significant participation from all but a handful of major nations. the Bush administration could not convince Turkey. partly because few Asian states view the United States as a neutral. Globalization is erasing borders that once protected the United States. so Washington resorts to quiet arm-twisting and blandishments to obtain counterterror concessions.S. so is followership. Not because they love us. “The Decline of American Soft Power. outlaw actors. again in part because of America's negative image in countries ranging from India to Germany In attempts to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons. With America's image declining in nations like Thailand and Pakistan. The 2002 National security Strategy emphasizes that winning the war on terror requires the United States to lead a battle of ideas against the ideological roots of terrorism. Instead. and drug trafficking. Whatever response the United States chooses-engagement.S. More than ever before. 686. U. Dec 2005. it magni. These include the drain in foreign talent coming to the United States. Terrorism itself cannot be defeated by force alone. we would go it alone. accessed 07/10/07 A broad decline in soft power has many practical implications. advanced technology. . influence. With foreign governments and publics suspicious of American policy.Soft Power – General Impacts Soft Power is key to solving competitiveness. or theft of a weapon of mass destruction. containment. and the possibility that anti-US sentiment will make it easier for terrorist groups to recruit. now more than ever. disease. security...

regardless of its political complexion. Pax Americana also is winding down. economic and demographic challenges. grand strategy will have to change with it. lexis) THE CONSTELLATION of world power is changing. Australia. not to mention a rival United States that shows no sign of lapsing into terminal decline despite its current economic travails . Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. the United States is very likely to remain fully engaged in global affairs. The National Interest.AT: Heg Bad – Hard Power Inevitable Decline makes all their turns worse.¶ At the same time. administration.24 . An Asian Security Standoff. The United States can manage this relative decline effectively over the next couple of decades only if it first acknowledges the fundamental reality of decline . lexis) What of the argument that America should accept the inevitable and share power with China as an equal? Paralleling the G-2 would be an Asia-2. American elites must come to grips with the fact that the West does not enjoy a predestined supremacy in international politics that is locked into the future for an indeterminate period of time. Advocates of restraint or global withdrawal. The Euro-Atlantic world had a long run of global dominance.Philadelphia. Even Layne agrees. This could always change. of course. Gates Chair in National Security at Texas A & M University’s George H. W. at present. The Global Power Shift from West to East.Zero Chances of willful US restraint – we’ll inevitably be engaged globally – the only question is effectiveness Shalmon and Horowitz 09 (Dan. sharing between the United States and China is unlikely to work for no U. However. The National Interest. The future is more likely to be shaped by the East.S. Mike. allowing Beijing and Washington to divide the region into spheres of influence in much the same way as the United States and the Soviet Union managed a politically bifurcated Europe during the early part of the Cold War. irregular/asymmetric threats are inevitable given America’s role in the global order. have embraced the notion of American exceptionalism with such fervor that they can’t discern the world transformation occurring before their eyes.the US won’t just give up Layne June 2012 (Chris. while popular in some segments of academia.C. and U. remain on the margins of policy debates in Washington D. resource.International Relations at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Bush School of Government and Public Service. First. Beijing may have to confront the prospect of a resurgent Washington determined to reassert its strategic interests.S. While superficially appealing because it holds out the prospect of a peaceful transition to a new international order. professor and Robert M. it is a given that the United States will define its interests globally and pursue a strategy that requires capable military forces able to project power around the world. for the country faces formidable environmental. All their turns are inevitable . China’s new great-power status is hardly untrammeled. Second. Sooner than it thinks. Spring) It is important to recognize at the outset two key points about United States strategy and the potential costs and benefits for the United States in a changing security environment. Orbis. Graduate Student in the PhD Program in Political Science . Because ‘‘indirect’’ counter-strategies are the rational choice for actors facing a strong state’s power projection. Nor is it guaranteed to last. power two reasons.US will be more violent and desperate post-decline Dupont June 2012 (Alan. would voluntarily relinquish power to China. particularly among the elites. but it is coming to an end. The problem is that many Americans. just as China wouldn’t if the roles were reversed. First. professor of international security and director of the Institute for International Security and Development at the University of New South Wales in Sydney.

thereby fueling the frustrations and resentments of the rising power. The stakes are about as high as they can get. international institutions and hierarchies of prestige that were put in place when they were still relatively weak. vigor and decline. ascending power begins to overtake the previously dominant state.perception of weakness spurs war. not only in Asia. This. is among the oldest in recorded history. As they begin to assert themselves. rising powers want their place in the sun . this story line.-China relationship is competitive. . the dominant states are often either reluctant to make concessions. But however sincere. feeding its ambitions and triggering a spiral of escalating demands. but around the world.Transition  War Transition from US dominance causes conflict. This means that those in ascendance typically attempt not only to secure their borders but also to reach out beyond them. As a nation’s capabilities grow. the state whose capabilities have been growing most rapidly. Throughout history. lexis) THE UNITED States and the People’s Republic of China are locked in a quiet but increasingly intense struggle for power and influence. in general.S. As far back as the fifth century BC the great Greek historian Thucydides began his study of the Peloponnesian War with the deceptively simple observation that the war’s deepest. The resulting clash of interests between the two sides has seldom been resolved peacefully . This is why periods of transition. Aaron L. an aggressor may have ambitions that are so extensive as to be impossible for the status quo powers to satisfy without effectively consigning themselves to servitude or committing national suicide. Successful policies of appeasement are conceivable in theory but in practice have proven devilishly difficult to implement. of course. professor of politics and international affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University. rising states tend to be troublemakers. Like Japan in the late nineteenth century. taking steps to ensure access to markets. to promulgate their religious or ideological beliefs. its leaders generally define their interests more expansively and seek a greater degree of influence over what is going on around them. Others—hoping to avoid war—have taken the opposite approach: attempting to appease potential challengers . But these countries are not just any two great powers: Since the end of the Cold War the United States has been the richest and most powerful nation in the world. Even when the demands being made of them are less onerous. principal beneficiaries and main defenders of any existing international system. to have what they consider to be their rightful say in the affairs of their region and of the wider world. Recognizing the growing threat to their position. with its Shakespearean overtones of youth and age.history proves Friedberg 2011 (July/August. is what brings them into conflict with the established great powers —the so-called status quo states—who are the architects. And in spite of what many earnest and well-intentioned commentators seem to believe. the nascent SinoAmerican rivalry is not merely the result of misperceptions or mistaken policies. have so often been marked by war. then. dominant powers (or a coalition of status quo states) have occasionally tried to attack and destroy a competitor before it can grow strong enough to become a threat.” but China is fast gaining ground. As was true of Adolf Hitler’s Germany. relations between dominant and rising states have been uneasy—and often violent. when a new.. At least insofar as the dominant powers are concerned. or Germany at the turn of the twentieth. to defend their foreign friends and allies. even cheated. these efforts have almost always ended in failure. rising powers feel constrained. America is still “number one. by contrast. Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics. to protect their citizens far from home. it is driven instead by forces that are deeply rooted in the shifting structure of the international system and in the very different domestic political regimes of the two Pacific powers. and the potential for conflict particularly fraught. The National Interest.” The fact that the U. Established powers tend to regard themselves as the defenders of an international order that they helped to create and from which they continue to benefit. truest cause was “the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta. is simply no surprise. Indeed. or too eager to do so. by the status quo and struggle against it to take what they think is rightfully theirs.AT: Heg Bad . Sometimes the reason clearly lies in the demands of the rising state. they look for ways to satisfy their demands and ambitions and seek to incorporate them peacefully into the existing international order. China is. ascendant states typically feel impelled to challenge territorial boundaries. materials and transportation routes. and.

maybe even believed that they did. By contrast. aircraft carriers. Islamist extremists' infiltration of the EU would become irreversible. With ease. The trouble is. so it is now possible not just to sack a city but to obliterate it. So what is left? Waning empires.” Surely their aspirations to global governance are fundamentally different from the spirit of the Dark Ages? Yet universal claims were also an integral part of the rhetoric of that era. increasing trans-Atlantic tensions over the Middle East to the breaking point. that this Dark Age would be an altogether more dangerous one than the Dark Age of the ninth century. Certainly. except where countries have shut themselves off from the process through tyranny or civil war. it would inevitably become a less open society. from Hamburg to Gaza.Heg Solves War Collapse of US hegemony causes a global power vacuum resulting in nuclear war Ferguson 04 professor of history at New York University's Stern School of Business and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University (Niall. it seems. As the United States sought to protect itself after a second September 11 devastates. Europe. the writ of the international community is not global at all. A coming retreat into fortified cities. The worst effects of the new Dark Age would be felt on the edges of the waning great powers. increasingly confined to a few Page 5 strategic cities such as Kabul and Pristina. unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires. nor an all-embracing Empire of Heaven. humanity has entered an era characterized as much by disintegration as integration. wherever they choose. and the World Trade Organization (formerly the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) each considers itself in some way representative of the “international community. The wealthiest ports of the global economy—from New York to Rotterdam to Shanghai—would become the targets of plunderers and pirates. but downward. Western investors would lose out and conclude that lower returns at home are preferable to the risks of default abroad. and cruise liners. For the world is much more populous—roughly 20 times more—so friction between the world's disparate “tribes” is bound to be more frequent. some. All the empires claimed to rule the world. targeting oil tankers.S. and China—retreating into their own regional spheres of influence . it is the nonstate actors who truly wield global power—including both the monks and the Vikings of our time. the International Monetary Fund. too. With the end of states' monopoly on the means of violence and the collapse of their control over channels of communication. while Western nations frantically concentrated on making their airports secure. terrorists could disrupt the freedom of the seas. Incipient anarchy. of course. If free flows of information and of means of production empower multinational corporations and nongovernmental organizations (as well as evangelistic religious cults of all denominations). now human societies depend not merely on freshwater and the harvest but also on supplies of fossil fuels that are known to be finite. Foreign Policy ) Could an apolar world today produce an era reminiscent of the age of Alfred? It could. as Europe's Muslim enclaves grew. And that is also true today. one can imagine the world's established powers—the United States. Technology has transformed production. . say. the free flow of destructive technology empowers both criminal organizations and terrorist cells. was not a global Christendom. “A World without Power”. in fact. leadership after the Second World War? The United Nations. the World Bank. The reality was political fragmentation. visit. Meanwhile. The reversal of globalization— which a new Dark Age would produce—would certainly lead to economic stagnation and even depression. globalization—the integration of world markets for commodities. An economic meltdown in China would plunge the Communist system into crisis. unaware of the existence of other civilizations. less hospitable for foreigners seeking to work. But what of the growing pretensions to autonomy of the supranational bodies created under U. In short.AT: Heg Bad . The reality. labor. Houston or Chicago. and capital—has raised living standards throughout the world. Religious revivals. For more than two decades. or do business. however. though with some important and troubling differences. These are the Dark Age experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving. Technology has upgraded destruction. These groups can operate. The defining characteristic of our age is not a shift of power upward to supranational institutions. It is.

. and low-level conflicts. Rand Corporation 1995 (Zalmay Khalilzad. such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems. perhaps ending catastrophically in the Middle East.) Under the third option. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself. If the United States retreats from global hegemony — its fragile self-image dented by minor setbacks on the imperial frontier—its critics at home and abroad must not pretend that they are ushering in a new era of multipolar harmony. First.democracy.S. limited nuclear wars could devastate numerous regions. Finally.2. U. And far more dangerous forces than rival great powers would benefit from such a not-so-new world disorder Lack of hegemony  extinction Khalilzad. U. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival. In Latin America. beginning in the Korean peninsula and Kashmir. or even a return to the good old balance of power. On balance. Second. such as nuclear proliferation. threats of regional hegemony by renegade states. The alternative to unipolarity would not be multipolarity at all. and the rule of law. “Losing the Moment?” The Washington Quarterly 18. this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. Be careful what you wish for. Spring 1995. It would be apolarity—a global vacuum of power. The few remaining solvent airlines would simply suspend services to many cities in these continents. free markets.S. enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers. In Africa. Lexis. the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -. religious orders . the great plagues of AIDS and malaria would continue their deadly work. who would wish to leave their privately guarded safe havens to go there? For all these reasons. wretchedly poor citizens would seek solace in Evangelical Christianity imported by U. including a global nuclear exchange.Meanwhile.S. the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system. the prospect of an apolar world should frighten us today a great deal more than it frightened the heirs of Charlemagne. RAND Corporation.

and enduring trading partnerships. and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency. Nov/Dec2006 Issue 86. American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world.Heg Solves Democracy Heg promotes democracy Thayer 6 (Bradley A. p. once states are governed democratically. Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one another.S. more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U.org//sub/pubs/deadly/diam_rpt. Second. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics. power behind it.carnegie. Democratic governments do not ethnically "cleanse" their own populations . Israel and Egypt." Consequently.S. And so.S. . Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened. particularly war's worst form: great power wars. The very source of life on Earth.S. http://www. Hoover Institution. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U. the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced. it is important to note what those good things are. open. Indeed they do. Britain or the United States today. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. it is because they are more open. primacy. spreading democracy helps maintain U. Democracy solves extinction Diamond 95 (Larry Diamond. India and Pakistan. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. appears increasingly endangered. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war. leadership. U. They are more environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own citizens. Most of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy. Indonesia and Australia . growing democratization-is directly linked to U. chemical and biological weapons continue to proliferate. such as in Darfur.AT: Heg Bad .( n3) So. popular sovereignty and openness.” National Interest.. South Korea and Japan. as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue. democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United States. the global ecosystem. a robust monetary regime. Democratic countries form more reliable. but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood. As country and western great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it). in general. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse. Today. American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism: Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because. PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN THE 1990S. This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests. Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against one another. who organize to protest the destruction of their environments . Everything we think of when we consider the current international order--free trade. In addition. 1995.html) Nuclear.. December. Without U. power. During the Cold War.S. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists. with its provisions for legality. the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly. Stanford University. peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power -Rome. In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for investment.S. Rather. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies. American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned--between Greece and Turkey. increasing respect for human rights. most notably France and West Germany. accountability. They do not build weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another. The first has been a more peaceful world. Prof of Defense and Strategic Studies @ Missouri State University. liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview. power. The experience of this century offers important lessons. “In Defense of Primacy. p32-37) Throughout history.

it seems to be a losing trope. one more will be really toxic.. Much of diplomacy rests on public perceptions. I would expect. or France are no better under Obama — and probably worse — than during the Bush administration. Russia. Iran. Disaster. Missouri State University (Bradley A. Hanson: Two considerations: 1) It’s hard (in addition to being shameless). I think we got off the back of the tiger and now no one quite knows pressuring autonomous former republics to get back in line with some sort of new Russian autocratic commonwealth. Whether they are terrorists. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom. Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home". 2) I think he will drop the reset/“Bush did it” throat-clearing soon. however trivial. Lexis) In contrast. thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half-pledges to defend its interests and allies. poll-wise.resistnet. The world can understand a kowtow gaffe to some Saudi royals. politically speaking. — are just waiting to see who’s going to be the first to try Obama — and whether Obama really will be as tenuous as they expect. the Iranian hostage mess. Iran to get the bomb and begin to threaten ever so insidiously its Gulf neighborhood. If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States. in the next three years. So the apologies and bows don’t go over well here at home. wishing to redraw the existing landscape — whether China. Weakness.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disasterobama/showLastReply Dr. . — do you believe his global repositioning will cause the most damage? Dr. etc . To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression. Hanson: I think all three. 06 – Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. but not as part of a deliberate pattern. does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat.” National Interest. Most are starting to see that our relations with Britain. BC: With what country then — Venezuela. India’s borders with both Pakistan and China will heat up. “In Defense of Primacy. Indeed. it will be 1979 redux. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics. history shows that threats must be confronted. In other words. Ditto the mea culpas. BC: Can Obama get any more mileage from his perpetually played “I’m not George W. North Korea. Venezuela. Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson. the communist inroads in Central America. Syria. then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from Causes global wars that escalate – perception is key Victor Davis Hanson (Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution. as his polls continue to stay below 50 percent. We are now in a great waiting game. Americans hate whining and blamegaming. Hanson: Obama is one bow and one apology away from a circus . Washington cannot call a "time out". while insidiously There’s an outside shot that North Korea might do something really stupid near the 38th parallel and China will ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan. when we saw the rise of radical Islam.” http://www. the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Pakistan.S. retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy. as regional hegemons. a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. friendship and values are liabilities. etc. and Russia will continue its energy bullying of Eastern Europe . The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics. Venezuela will probably cook up some scheme to do a punitive border raid into Colombia to apprise South America that U. Germany. Stanford University) December 2009 “Change. Bush” card or is that card past its expiration date? Dr. Iran.AT: Heg Bad – Heg Solves Deterrence Heg collapse emboldens rogues – it signals weakness Thayer. for any president to keep scapegoating a prior administration. after a year. rogue states or rising powers. etc. and it cannot hide from threats. Italy. predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. If he slips once. November/December. whom it will bite or when.

that the U. . modernize.Its Sustainable Heg is sustainable.…The military balance today and for the foreseeable future strongly favors the United States and its allies. Or China might continue to rise in place – steadily improving its capabilities in absolute terms while stagnating. Ibid. economic superiority literally gives the United States “more bang for the buck” – each dollar it spends on the military produces more force than each dollar China spends. 73.” compensating for its technological and organizational inferiority by utilizing asymmetric strategies. Conclusion Change is inevitable. the U. military has vulnerabilities. technological.5 percent. The Unipolar Era: Why American Power Persists and China’s Rise Is Limited. From 1961 to 1968 North Vietnamese and Vietcong units brought down 1. local knowledge. especially in littorals and low-‐altitudes close to enemy territory. and a greater willingness to bear costs. weak adversaries can impose significant costs. And what the trends suggest is that America’s economic. but it is often incremental and nonlinear. relative to the United States.206 Multivariate regressions suggest that military effectiveness is determined by a country’s level of economic development.208 In particular. regardless of the size of their defense budgets. even after controlling for numerous material.S. because they lack the economic capacity to maintain. say. But this has always been the case. but evidence of American vulnerability is not the same as evidence of American decline. p. this growing economic gap is also a growing military gap. The PLA may look increasingly respectable on paper. The best that can be done is to make plans for the future on the basis of present trends.S.‐2008.S.20: Share of World Arms Transfer Agreements. Iraq circa 1991. I found that developing countries systematically fail at warfare. None of this should be cause for chest-‐thumping.S.S. helicopters and aircraft with simple antiaircraft artillery and no early warning radar. and political factors. 71.209 There are reasons to doubt this claim – the Pentagon is developing sophisticated countermeasures and Chinese writings may purposefully exaggerate PLA capabilities. efforts to counter them. As noted earlier. In the coming decades. 2001. not a passing moment in time. but a deeply embedded material condition that will persist for the foreseeable future . If history is any guide. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations.212 Sixty years ago. but its performance in battle against the United States would not necessarily be much better than that of. soldiers. 1993-‐2000. or even declining. 1993-‐2008 Source: Congressional Research Service.211 It is certainly true. Indeed.S. Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations. as measured by per capita income. In a separate study.210 There is also reason to doubt the strategic importance of China’s capabilities because the United States may be able to launch effective attacks from positions beyond the reach of Chinese missiles and submarines.700 U.. China’s per capita income has declined relative to that of the United States. share of the world conventional arms market surged to 68 percent while China’s share dropped below 1.”207 Figure 3. some experts believe China’s “anti-area. and integrate individual technologies into cohesive military systems.‐denial” capabilities are outpacing U. and trends point toward continued unipolarity Beckley 2012 (Michael. PhD candidate at the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences at Columbia. social. p.AT: Heg Bad . and military lead over China will be an enduring feature of international relations . China can “pose problems without catching up. Dissertation found on google scholar) More important. however. the gap in defense spending likely understates the true military gap because U. an independent task force of more than thirty experts recently found “no evidence to support the notion that China will become a peer military competitor of the United States. China’s defense industry has also fallen further behind : in 2008.challengers can’t make up the power differential. Yes. China may surge out of its unimpressive condition and close the gap with the United States. China projected a huge army into Korea and killed tens of thousands of U.

on the other hand. only accounts for 5 percent of the world total. 64 The extraordinarily wide gap in capabilities created by the fall of the Soviet Union left other states with little choice but to acquiesce. The 2003 invasion of Iraq is a case in point but there are plenty of other examples. there are also economic advantages associated with this privileged position in the security field.S. The increased its share of world military spending in the last twenty years. But the European Union’s share does not amount to even half of the United States’ share of the world total. Although some question the utility of armed force. This is the claim that is likely to be the most carefully scrutinized. then the unipolar power would need more than 50 percent of the capabilities in the great power system to stave off a counterpoise. .AT: Heg Bad – No Counter Balancing No counterbalancing.S. the absolute threshold should represent 50 percent of the capabilities in the system.bandwagoning is more likely. Without even throwing the technological sophistication of American weaponry (or the collective action problems that many states confront when deciding to act in the national interest) into the balance. International Security. other countries benefiting from U. Countries such as China. Russia. But what about the economic realm? The real test is whether the United States still towers over other countries economically. because at this level the sum of all the forces opposing the aspiring hegemon is insufficient to successfully balance it. costless activity assumed in some balance-of-power theories. No balancing – US lead is insurmountable and is growing Carla Norrlof (an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto) 2010 “America’s Global Advantage US Hegemony and International Cooperation” p. few will contest that the United States is in a league of its own when it comes to security affairs. but they lack the capabilities to challenge it. it is clear that the United States is peerless in the security sphere and has strengthened its lead in the last two decades. the United States faces very few constraints in the security arena . whereas China. primacy resulted from the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union. 61 Levy and Thompson raise the important question of why other states failed to balance against the United States when it was a rising power but not yet a hegemon. the United States is by far the largest military spender and has actually United States’ lead over its nearest competitor is actually stronger in the security arena than it was in 1988 . As I will also show in chapter 6. . making balancing futile. the country with the second largest share today. postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Politics. This is the figure William Thompson suggests in describing a near-unipolar system. . A Neorealist Synthesis. primacy appear not to be worried about it. The Security Curve and the Structure of International Politics. Counting coalitions as potential balancers.S.1. . and other states’ dependence on it for effective action. Still. and Syria. Institutions. the Soviet Union was the closest rival in 1988. The United States has already moved beyond the absolute threshold. the absence of balancing against the United States today appears less puzzling. or even Brazil and Pakistan. History at the University of Bologna.maintaining the power gap key to prevent challengers Fiammenghi 2011 (Davide. It may be an exaggeration to suggest that the United States became a hegemon by accident. For decades. Spring. 62 Part of the answer lies in the United States' unusual path to primacy. Iran. accounts for a larger share than did the Soviet Union in 1988 . may not like U. but the outcome was not planned. Moreover. 63 U. But such expectations miss the fact that alliance politics always impose costs. The European Union. Because of the superiority of American military power. and is able to reap economic benefits as a result of its hegemonic position. the euro area still accounts for a lower share today than did the Soviet Union in 1988. The next section considers hegemonic strategies that can soften opposition. lexis) In principle. the absolute security threshold should not pose the same problem because of the logical limits in determining it. 19 As illustrated in table 2. Ideally." 59 It is therefore reasonable to assume that the absolute security threshold is around 45 percent of the military capabilities in the system. primacy. the Soviet Union maintained a rough balance with the United States. 65 Meanwhile. 60 In this light. it is useful to consider William Wohlforth's admonition: "If balancing were the frictionless. accounting for 18 percent of the world total.

Charm Offensive. and potentially makes the United States more likely to resort to force rather than persuasion to meet American objectives. fellow at the USC School of Public Diplomacy and the Pacific Council on International Policy and previous foreign editor at The New Republic."34 . warning that if the "downward spiral [in diplomacy] is not reversed. the prospect of relying on military force to protect US national interests will increase. America's declining popularity decreases Washington's soft power. pg.AT: Heg Bad – Link Turn Low US soft power leads to an increase in unilateralism. Kurlantzick 07 (Joshua. One recent bipartisan report on American diplomacy concluded as much. Even without China on the scene. 194) This unpopularity matters.

fiu. ensuring a stable energy future. and only after normalization.S.edu/research/commissionedreports/oil-cuba-alvarado. will play important roles in the funding of the effort to revitalize the Cuban energy sector. Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO. and hence. and no less significant. Treasurer of the American Political Science Association. PhD. is the possibility of normalization of trade relations with the United States. all states could derive benefit from the public information campaigns to promote energy efficiency and conservation presently being promoted in Cuba in the face of diminishing energy stocks and uncertain global markets. Cuba may indeed realize a bonanza from the offshore tracts that will allow it to possibly address its many energy challenges. but the cost will necessarily be spread through a number of sources that are predominately American because of strategic interests. Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha. of which the U. be its major partner in this effort owing to the fact that most if not all of . the region. Cuban officials are not averse and perhaps would prefer that the U. because up until this point it hasn’t cost the United States much if anything. It has significantly increased its international cooperation in the energy sector and continues to enhance its efforts to ensure energy security in these most uncertain of times. First.” http://cri. Two factors may alter this present situation. Florida International University. they will come up short. inasmuch as American corporations. proximity and affinity. design and implement energy development policies that will benefit Cuba for generations to come. Report for the Cuban Research Institute. government agencies. and international financial institutions. As energy security concerns continue to percolate up to an increasingly important status in the realm of national security objectives we may begin to see the erosion of the hard position against the Cuban regime regardless of its leadership.S. The current policy continues to clearly place at the forefront the sanctity and utility of a comprehensive economic and political embargo in the hopes that it helps to foment a change in regime and a peaceful transition to a democratic system of governance and a complimentary market economy. from increasing oil production and refining capacity.AT: Not Enough Oil US-Cuban joint oil production is the critical key to US oil selfsufficiency---there are massive amounts of offshore oil waiting to be tapped Benjamin-Alvadaro 6 (Jonathan.pdf) Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face of a continuing opposition by the United States to anything resembling what can be construed as “good news” for the Castro regime? Obviously. “The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special. This is important not only because it will allow direct foreign investment. the task still falls to the Cuban government. But it stands to reason that no matter how successful these efforts are.¶ The overview of the Cuban energy developments clearly and unambiguously reveals that the Castro regime has every intention of continuing to promote. Moreover. technology transfer and information sharing between these neighboring states but it possibly enhances the energy security of both states. Second. Cuba is sparing no effort by instituting bottom-up and top-down policy initiatives to meet this challenge. is a major contributor.S. realized through a division of labor and dispersion of resources that serve as a hedge against natural disaster and market disruptions. to improving the nation’s energy infrastructure. It suffices to say that the requisite investment and assistance will have a distinct American tinge to it. Ultimately. U.

. absent the type of infrastructural investment that is available to most developing states. the cost is significant and it stands to reason that the longer one waits to address the challenge at hand the higher the cost of modernizing the energy sector . It is remarkable that the Cuban energy sector is as vibrant as it presently is. For this reason alone.the cutting-edge technology in energy. This should serve as an obvious point of entry into cooperation with the Cuban government and perhaps can serve as a catalyst for promoting confidence. oil and gas comes from the United States. it increases the long-term cost of the effort. trust and cooperation in this critical issue area across the region. ¶ Finally. the American role in assisting Cuba in this effort will be significant and every day that the task is put off. in large part because of the American economic embargo.

& Pol'y 37. and PetroVietnam also have offshore experience.Environmental science prof." n65 Thus." and that "they are very knowledgeable of international industry practices and have incorporated many of these principles into their safety and regulatory planning and requirements. p. Scarabeo-9 is built to Norwegian standards. “IN THIS ISSUE: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICT: CUBAN OFFSHORE DRILLING: PREPARATION AND PREVENTION WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE UNITED STATES' EMBARGO. study and thought into what will be required to safely drill. 12 Sustainable Dev.org/projects/marine.” online: http://assets. involvement isn’t key Richard Sadowski 11. L.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems and Global Climate Change. which may allow for adaptation to climate change.com/rpts/R41522_20101129. Petronas.D. including projects in the U. n66 Companies investing in Cuba have extensive offshore experience---no risk of spills Nerurkar & Sullivan 10 – Neelesh Nerurkar. PhD.AT: Environment Turn Cuba won’t spill---they’ll be safe and U. President of the Houston-based International Association of Drilling Contractors. It has had issues with oil spills. said. n64 Lee Hunt. PdVSA does not.31 Among other Cuban lease holders. J. allowing them to respond quickly to rapid environmental change and thus rendering them ecologically adaptable . lexis Fears that Cuban offshore drilling poses serious environmental threats because of the proximity to the United States and the prohibition on U.30 Repsol has significant offshore experience. http://www.S.pewclimate. foreign sources have provided supplemental alternatives. Hofstra University School of Law. Specialist in Latin American Affairs at the Congressional Research Service. but its offshore project appears the furthest from seeing drilling activity among existing licenses. “Cuba’s Offshore Oil Development: Background and U. technology transfer are overblown. including extra equipment to shut off blown-out wells beyond what is required in the United States. November 29. Specialist in Energy Policy at the Congressional Research Service. Fall 2011. while the economic embargo of Cuba restricts American technology from being utilized. which is not abnormal for an oil company..opencrs. Gulf of Mexico.S. Maryland. (Victor.” Sustainable Development Law & Policy. and are generally seen as accomplished offshore operators . including projects in the U. Policy Considerations. Some species also have wide genetic variability throughout their range.S. Oceans are resilient Kennedy 2 . 2010. Sullivan. According to Saipem. "[t]he Cuban oil industry has put a lot of research. and reports indicate that Cuba is taking safety seriously. Steele components of marine systems are tightly coupled to physical factors. Cooperative Oxford Laboratory.S.cfm) There is evidence that marine organisms and ecosystems are resilient to environmental change. (1991) hypothesized that the biological . and Mark P. Gulf of Mexico. Petrobras and Statoil have extensive offshore experience . ONGC.pdf It is difficult to assess the likelihood of a spill . Cuba has at least as much incentive to ensure safe-drilling practices as does the United States. Former Director.

while declines of 50 and 80% led to classifications of 'endangered' and 'critically endangered'. Newcastle (Nicholas. as one example. Clupeidae) and a nine-fold variation in northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax. Matsuda et al. For the (1996) IUCN list.1) Marine fish populations are more variable and resilient than terrestrial populations Great natural variability in population size is sometimes invoked to argue that IUCN Red List criteria. They argue that percent decline criteria are too conservative compared to the high natural variability of fish populations .Marine life is resilient Dulvy 3 – Professor of Marine Science and Technology. but many marine resource biologists feel that for marine fishes 'one size does not fit all' (see Hutchings 2001a). Powles et al. respectively. It should. Clupeidae) over the past two millennia to suggest that rapid declines and increases of up to 10-fold are relatively common in exploited fish stocks. Hutchings 2001a). 2002). are too conservative for marine fishes (Hudson and Mace1996. a decline of 20% within 10 years or three generations (whichever is longer) triggered a classification of 'vulnerable'. be borne in mind that the variation of exploited populations must be higher than unexploited populations because recruitment fluctuations increasingly drive population fluctuations when there are few adults (Pauly et al. Powles et al. . (2000) cite the six-fold variation of the Pacific sardine population (Sardinopssagax. These criteria were designed to be applied to all animal and plant taxa. however. 2000. Fish and Fisheries 4. Extinction vulnerability in marine populations. Musick 1999.1997.

AT: HEALTH CARE DA .

Then there is the real Cuban system.” And their system. that there are many separate. “The [Cuban] doctors are pretty well trained. light bulbs — even toilet paper. like the one for medical tourists. or even two: There are three. liposuction. another fever. separate beaches. they must bring their own bedsheets.latinamericanstudies. This is known as “medical tourism. patients may be better off at home. Dr. leprosy. Conditions are so unsanitary. a third of these are deployed overseas in “soft-power” missions. or segregated. “We have nothing.” The tourists pay in hard currency. these people were called the “nomenklatura. And the chief of medical services for the whole of the Cuban military had to rent out his car as a taxi on weekends. A nurse spoke to Isabel Vincent of Canada’s National Post. well supplied. American doctors make sure to take as much equipment and as many supplies as they can carry. NOT UNIQUE . I’ll take them. the one that ordinary people must use — and it is wretched. state-of-the-art. is a particular menace. Infant mortality ties with Canada’s as the lowest in the Americas. A doctor in exile told the Miami Herald that. People speak of “tourism apartheid. When they travel to the island.” For example.economist. “I haven’t seen aspirin in a Cuban store here for more than a year. And dengue. the military. who are eight times richer. In the real Cuba. The foreigners-only facilities do a big business in what you might call vanity treatments: Botox.” The equipment that doctors have to work with is either antiquated or nonexistent. and so on. And an antibiotic will fetch a fortune on the black market. even sophisticated medications are plentiful and cheap. The second health-care system is for Cuban elites — the Party. Pharmacies are generally illstocked.org/cuba/health-myth. this causes widespread resentment in the general population. Though the state still trains armies of doctors. Life- expectancy matches that of Americans. there is excellent health care on Cuba — just not for ordinary Cubans. Neglect of infrastructure means that almost 10% of the population lacks . Hospitals and clinics are crumbling. As you can well imagine.Cuban health care is struggling – the economy and the embargo The Economist 7/14/2012 “Cuban Health Care: Under Investigation” http://www. Jaime Suchlicki of the University of Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies explains that there is not just one system. food and dressings. “Everyone tries to survive. in 2003. or about 25 dollars. Testimony and documentation on the subject are vast.htm To be sure. One told the Associated Press. he earned what most doctors did: 575 pesos a month. It’s like operating with knives and spoons. and typhoid fever. you can call a Cuban with a car privileged.Health Care DA – 2AC NO IMPACT – Cuban Health care cannot solve disease National Review 7/30/2007 “The Myth of Cuban Health Care” http://www. In the Soviet Union. on errands of mercy. If they do have to go to the hospital. an exiled doctor named Dessy Mendoza Rivero — a former political prisoner and a spectacularly brave man — wrote a book called ¡Dengue! La Epidemia Secreta de Fidel Castro. soap. And the facilities in which they are treated are First World: clean. But Cuba’s crumbling economy has put this system under stress.” he explained. In Sicko. official artists and writers. The first is for foreigners who come to Cuba specifically for medical care. separate restaurants — separate everything. is top-notch. Doctors have been known to reuse latex gloves — there is no choice. Even if they have passed their expiry date. Cubans were justifiably proud of their health-care system.) So deplorable is the state of health care in Cuba that old-fashioned diseases are back with a vengeance. and breast implants.” said the nurse. (Of course. towels. In many hospitals patients must provide their own sheets. Remember. whatever he does with it. facilities on Cuba. finding an aspirin can be a chore. there are separate hotels. putting Cuba ahead of many rich countries. which provides oxygen to the regime. If you have any pills in your purse. whatever home is. Measles jabs have been near-universal for more than 20 years. Indeed. These include tuberculosis.com/node/21558613 Until recently. And basic medications are scarce. but they have nothing to work with. He had to sell pork out of his home to get by. too.” And doctors are not necessarily privileged citizens in Cuba. food.

currently restricted to farming. mostly in Venezuela but also in Africa. A woman who gave her name as Grisel says she worked as a family doctor for just $23 a month. He added some equipments were simply unattainable. the president. Hospital patients sometimes have to bring their own sheets.Embargo restricts Cuba from access to necessary medicines and tech Xinhua News 11/28/2012 “Cuban healthcare weakended by U. A pair of children's shoes costs $13. NOT UNIQUE .xinhuanet. having found no doctors in attendance at two health clinics. south of the capital. buying from third parties. maternal mortality has risen.access to clean drinking water. The next step. There is a surfeit of humanities graduates and a shortage of agronomists and engineers. representing a significant impact on the tiny Caribbean nation. The American embargo against the island does not help: equipment for radiology. sometimes we do not have all the raw materials and tools to solve certain problems immediately.S. Many drugs are in short supply. Nov. will be to let transport and other service workers form cooperatives. the Caribbean and Central America. John Rhodes. Although infant mortality has continued to fall. embargo” http://news." The embargo has caused Cuba a loss of more than 200 million dollars in the medical sector alone by 2011. In 2010.Health care declining – supplies & staff The Economist 3/24/2012 “The deal's off. a patient. told Xinhua that Cuba had made a great effort for the benefit of all its citizens. The Cuban government also offers scholarships to 20. embargo. an American think-tank. reported this week.S. this correspondent came across an elderly woman who had hurt her arm and was whimpering with pain." LINK TURN . mammograms and cancer therapy is hard to replace. As a doctor "I faced a choice of buying shoes or eating. this sort of economic surgery will need to speed up.htm HAVANA. advanced medical technology and latest scientific information. On a weekday morning in a village in the inappropriately named municipality of La Salud ("health"). There are reports of doctors starting to demand payment. 37. Inequality” page proquest And now health services and education are becoming harder to access and getting worse . adding "due to the U. says Julia Sweig of the Council on Foreign Relations. She has two small children. but now earns $40 a month in an improvised craft shop in Havana.000 Latin Americans to study medicine--all part of its obsessive search for international prestige. which is highly expensive around the world. where thousands of people receive free medical care every year from international specialists. If the health service is to thrive again. officials said. "because they are manufactured in the United States.000 Cuban doctors and other health workers were working in 77 countries around the world. who this month visited China and Vietnam. Cuban hospitals suffer restrictions in acquiring imported medical consumables and medicine. Lorenzo Llerena. "It provides us free medicine across the country. But the main reason for the shortage of medical staff is low salaries." said Director of the institute Dr. The public Institute of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery.com/english/health/2012-11/28/c_132004531. is financially strained by the embargo. according to official figures. Secondary-school enrolment is below its 1989 peak. which means higher prices for these products." he said." .Cuban medical authorities said on Tuesday a 50-year trade embargo imposed by the United States has severely undermined the country's healthcare system. 27 (Xinhua) -. is trying to revive the economy by cautiously transferring chunks of it into private hands. "We must find alternatives that sometimes include purchasing from distant markets. Raúl Castro.

Based on a fact-finding mission to Cuba. the AAWH identified that the embargo contributed particularly to malnutrition affecting especially women and children.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng.Embargo devastates health care system – supplies & lack of information exchange Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.45 The 300-page document is still the most comprehensive study on the issue. lack of access to medicines and medical supplies. The AAWH found that “a humanitarian catastrophe has been averted only because the Cuban government has maintained a high level of budgetary support for a health care system designed to deliver primary and preventive health care to all of its citizens… Even so.” 46 . and limited the exchange of medical and scientific information due to travel restrictions and currency regulations.LINK TURN .amnestyusa. embargo of food and the de facto embargo on medical supplies has wreaked havoc with the island's model primary health care system.S.pdf The negative impact of the US embargo on the Cuban health care system and on the right to health of Cubans during the 1990s has been documented in a 1997 report by the American Association for World Health (AAWH). poor water quality. the U.

14 Cuba’s dual economy has a lot to do with why such disparity exists. "My guess is that there's some kind of policy statement to follow.html HAVANA -. 13 There are claims that hospitals are often in poor conditions and doctors have to bring in their own supplies and equipment to allow them to treat their patients. which spends $190 million a year paying for its citizens' medical bills. Healthcare may be free and available for all Cuban citizens but medication is not.Cuba's system of free medical care.com/2012/08/27/cuba-healthcare_n_1832955. Every year Cuba exports huge amounts of medical aid. but how much does it cost?" The answer is. Venezuela provides much-needed oil to Cuba and in exchange receives Cuban doctors and medical supplies. Pharmacies are often very poorly stocked and rationing of supplies is minimal. . to explain or blunt fears of a drop-off in care and to remind Cubans to be grateful that health care is still free despite persistent economic woes. $4. electric fans. It's not a luxury service though. Patients often bring their own bed sheets. Granma. The health sector has already endured millions of dollars in budget cuts and tens of thousands of layoffs.Health Care DA – N/U Ext Health care system is crumbling – budget cuts Associated Press 8/25/2012 “Cuba Health Care: Budget Cuts Threaten Sector” Huffington Post http://www. who predict further cuts or significant changes to what has been a pillar of the socialist system implanted after the 1959 revolution. 22 For example. a longtime Cuba observer at the Lexington Institute think tank. 23 The ‘pesos pharmacies’ and local state hospitals are drastically under-stocked and thus access for the poor to needed medication is minimal. Scarcities now are common and sanitary conditions fall short of the ideal in decaying facilities where paint peels from the walls. is not immune to cutbacks under Raul Castro's drive for efficiency.827 for a heart transplant. long considered a birthright by its citizens and trumpeted as one of the communist government's great successes. the government spends $2 each time a Cuban visits a family doctor.uk/issue9/hanna/ However. Cubans lack resources for necessary medicine and equipment Global Politics 2007 “The Challenges of Health Care in Cuba” http://www. Medication and equipment is there and available but only to pay for in American dollars. "Very often the media has been a leading indicator of where the economic reforms are going. and it became clear this month that Castro is looking for more ways to save when the newspaper voice of the Communist Party. it seems very little of this actually remains in Cuba. 10 Despite the production of medical supplies and technology .co. not much by outside standards. But it's also raising the eyebrows of outside analysts. published daily details for two weeks on how much the government spends on everything from anesthetics and acupuncture to orthodontics and organ transplants.global- politics. but quite a bit for Cuba." The theme of the Granma pieces. food and water for hospital stays. despite the service being free. Based on the official exchange rate. mostly to other Latin American countries for purely financial returns. challenges remain.14 for each X-ray and $6.huffingtonpost. because that's been the pattern. posters in clinics and ads on state TV is the same: "Your health care is free. of which the poor and middle classes of Cuba are very unlikely to have." said Phil Peters. It's part of a wider media campaign that seems geared to discourage frivolous use of medical services.

In 2007.com/2009/HEALTH/09/01/amnesty.com/index.” Embargo prevents access to tech and medicine CNN 9/02/2009 “Report: U. Embargo restricts health care – equipment & chemicals Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www. it would send a clear message that the U. is adopting a new policy toward Cuba. according to UNICEF. . citizens from visiting relatives in Cuba. the embargo has a sweeping effect on Cuban healthcare . hospitals and day care centers is contributing to a high prevalence of iron deficiency anemia.S. I would say the people most affected have been cancer and HIV-AIDS patients. an Amnesty researcher for the Caribbean region.php/communities/303-lexington-fayette-county/29814-ukdelegation-visits-cuba-learns-about-its-healthcare-system “Many of the problems with Cuba’s health care system are associated with the American embargo. sanctions put Cubans' health at risk” http://edition. so many of their facilities are very basic. told CNN that although medicines and medical supplies can be licensed for export to Cuba. Over the past decades. She told CNN. and from any U. The embargo restricts the export of medicines and medical equipment from the U. the conditions governing the process make their export virtually impossible. trade embargo on Cuba is endangering the health of millions by limiting Cubans' access to medicines and medical technology. Amnesty International SecretaryGeneral Irene Khan called the U. embargo immoral and said it should be lifted. presidents on an annual basis since 1978. which have been in place since 1962.cnn.cuba.5 percent of Cuba's children under three years old.” Berres said.amnestyusa. "The president believes it makes strategic sense to hold on to some inducements we can use in dealing with a Cuban government if it shows any signs of seeking a normalized relationship with us and begins to respect basic human rights. Learns About its Healthcare System” http://surfky." The Amnesty report also cites United Nations data that says Cuba's inability to import nutritional products for schools.AT: Health Care DA – Link Turn Ext Embargo prevents access to necessary tech SurfKY News 4/15/2013 “UK Delegation Visits Cuba. Cuban and global health communities. Gail Reed is international director of MEDICC (Medical Education Cooperation with Cuba). but there are major shipping costs and logistical challenges to contend with. she said. "In general.S. a non-profit organization that encourages cooperation among U.-owned company abroad." She also said the embargo affects the way doctors think about the future.The U. However. In April this year President Obama lifted restrictions that had prevented U. human rights group Amnesty International alleged Wednesday.. The Act has been reviewed by U. leaving medical equipment without replacement parts and patients without continuity of medications. "Doctors in Cuba always worry that an international supplier will be bought out by a U. Amnesty also called on President Obama to not renew the Trading with the Enemy Act. the condition affected 37.S.S.S.health/ LONDON.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. and sending them remittances. Cuba can import these products from other countries. Amnesty said that while not renewing the Act would not in itself end the embargo against Cuba." Khan said. "It's preventing millions of Cubans from benefiting from vital medicines and medical equipment essential for their health.pdf The provision of health care has also suffered from the limitations and restrictions imposed by the embargo on the procurement of basic and specialized medical equipment and chemical components needed for the production of generic medicines. “This prevents them from having access to the latest pharmaceutical and technological advances. State Department spokeswoman would not comment on the report because she hadn't read it.S." Reed said. company.S.S. An Amnesty report examines the effects of the sanctions. which is due for renewal on September 14. England (CNN) -.S. Gerardo Ducos. A U.S.S.

on electricity and other functioning equipment such as X-ray facilities or refrigerators to store vaccines.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng.org/pdfs/amr250072009eng. who face long delays before having access to adequate medicine or treatment. The repercussions of these difficulties are ultimately felt by the intended beneficiaries of these programmes.64 . clinics and care centres for the elderly. medicines. It has also hindered the renovation of hospitals.amnestyusa.amnestyusa. The financial burden and commercial barriers have led to shortages or intermittent availability of drugs. Health and health services depend on functioning water and sanitation infrastructure.pdf The increase in the costs for purchasing the necessary medicine or medical materials is hampering the implementation of UN development projects and programmes.Embargo hurts health care – hampers UN programs Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.pdf The impact of economic sanctions on health and health services is not limited to difficulties in the supply of medicine. equipment and spare parts. Embargo hurts health care – infrastructure Amnesty International 2009 “ The US Embargo Against Cuba: Its Impact on Economic and Social Rights” http://www.

[*215] Doesn’t solve hard power – lifting the embargo is key to cooperating on oil drilling – that’s the key internal link to hard power . it will still have to be reconciled with an enduring hostile relationship between both countries . as applied to humanitarian organizations.S. However. since so much of America's humanitarian soft power resources lie outside of government in the private sector and civil society. policy. humanitarian assistance is the very type of soft power engagement that might help thaw relations between Washington and Havana.S. n78 While any increase in humanitarian assistance will no doubt be viewed as a positive step in the right direction. n79 any increase in humanitarian assistance might also require a proportional loosening of the trade and travel restrictions .AT: LIFT TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS CP Removing travel restrictions alone is insufficient to solve the soft power advantave advantage – removing the whole embargo is key Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U. which aims to isolate and destabilize the regime through economic sanctions. On the one hand.at least. The perception in Cuba is that the United States is responsible for the chronic humanitarian crisis that has afflicted the island since 1989. on the other hand. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis The only problem with offering more humanitarian aid to Cuba is that it seemingly contradicts current U.

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