Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
1
Raiffeisen International Bank AG
Attn: Gnther Sssenbacher
Am Stadtpark
1030 Vienna, Austria
Project Bioenergy Suceava
Erste Bank
BLZ: 20 111
Konto-Nr.: 280 649 516/00
Handelsgericht: Wien
Firmenbuchnr.: 233250s
UID: ATU 63580912
DISCLAIMER
Important notice
Our work started March 2nd 2015, fieldwork was completed April 7th
and further analysis / research done until April 20th 2015. Our report
has not been updated for events arising after that date.
In preparing our draft report, our primary source has been internal
management information and representations made to us by
management of Bioenergy Suceava and key employees. We do not
accept responsibility for the correctness of such information which
remains the responsibility of Bioenergy Suceavas management.
In addition we have researched other information form public sources
and to some extent other market experts; we have used these data to
do plausibility checks and to verify other assumptions. While we
informally related with IC-P, we did not have at our disposal the report
prepared by them on technical matters.
We have satisfied ourselves, so far as possible, that the information
presented in our draft report is consistent with other information which
was made available to us in the course of our work in accordance with
the terms of our engagement letter. We have not, however, sought to
establish the reliability of the sources by reference to other evidence.
The scope of our work was different from that for an audit and,
consequently, we do not issue any opinion or any other certificate or
confirmation relating to the financial statements, tax position or the
internal control systems of the company.
We do not warrant or express that the information presented in the
report is sufficient or appropriate for the purposes of financial
institutions in making their decision on the underlying project.
Our report makes reference to GCI analysis; this indicates only that
we have (where specified) undertaken certain analytical activities on
the underlying data to arrive at the information presented; we do not
accept responsibility for the underlying data.
ABBREVIATIONS
ANRE
HS
Holzwerke Schweighofer
B4P
Biomass 4 Power
IBR
BS
IC-P
CFADS
LHV
CF
Cash flow
MWh
Megawatt hour
CHP
OPCOM
DAP
Delivered at place
EBIT
p.a.
per anno
EBITDA
P&L
SB
Steam boiler
EON
sqm
square meter
to
tons
FY
Financial year
TWh
Terrawatt hour
GC
Green Certificate
WC
Working capital
Gcal
Giga calories
YTD
Year to date
GCI
BASIS OF PREPARATION
AGENDA
Executive summary
Procurement
Green certificates
Termica & Thermical supply
Current trading and forecast
Business plan and sensitivity analysis
Assumptions
Business Plan Scenarios
Controlling & Reporting standards
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Raw material /
biomass
GreenCertificates
(GC)
Reporting /
Controlling
(BS to banks)
Elements
Short overview of market (volume, prices, supply security) for biomass in the region of Suceava
Alternative sources outside the direct catchment area - influence of transportation costs on the competitive environment
Procurement within BS; critical review of internal organization and process quality (in the past/currently/improvement option)
Contracts with suppliers; specifically longer term if any (commercial review1); not legal)
Plausibility check of procurement consumption of biomass (i.e. contracts, supply, stock consumption, energy balance, etc.)
Critical evaluation, plus recommendation (if any)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Elements
Thermic supply /
Termica S.A
Parameters of the business relation of BS/Termica S.A. (from beginning 2015); status insolvency process, position of main
creditors, position of the insolvency administrator
Special item 110 KV Grid-Connection
(Other aspects that might be relevant in connection with the insolvency process)
External benchmarking of Termica S.A. to assess efficiency and potential (i.e. high level analysis as outside-in-view of Termica,
via a comparison of cost/pricing mechanisms, organizational structures, etc. with similar Romanian institutions )
Interpretations of results, alternative options and recommendations
Remark: while we have researched and summarized the findings accordingly, we want to clearly state that we will not accept
any responsibility or liability in relation to our interpretation of the status and prospect of the legal processes or any matter
related thereto. We understand that various experienced legal advisors have been retained; any action or decision should only
be taken after having obtained their opinion
Business Plan
The results of our work on the before mentioned items, may lead to changes in some of the fundamentals of the business plan
as presented in the IBR
In this case, we will point out the most critical deviations and re-assess the base scenario using the logic and key data as
shown in the PWC IBR
Remark:
after having done the in-depth analysis of the operational model, we have designed a bottom-up financial model, based upon
technical parameters rather than budgeted numbers (therefore fundamentally different from the model used in the IBR)
GCI has evaluated three scenarios that differ in the way the plant is run; for each of these scenarios GCI has analyzed the
most probable relation of input, performance and regulatory effects (GCs)
All of these scenarios are based on the continuity of the main elements of the BS business model and setup
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary
Recommendations
Page
History
25
Organisation
28
Prices / costs
The contract with HS was based upon a fee of 91 EUR / atro ton
with a fixed price increase of EUR 1 per year
Through widening of sourcing contacts the current price reduced
to 77 EUR / atro ton (February 2015)
The gain of approximately 14 EUR / atro ton (on basis of 130 k
atro ton as per management plan) would result in savings of 1.8
mEUR in 2015
24ff
10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary
Recommendations
Page
Sourcing
strategy /
alternatives
24ff
26ff
Sourcing process
11
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary
Recommendations
Page
Organization
38f
36ff
38f
12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary
base GCs
38ff
high efficiency
3rd GC
36ff
1) Alternatively also external uses such as drying of fruits, corn, etc. for third parties could result in a high efficiency
Recommendations
Page
13
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary
Recommendations
Page
EON GC sales
contract
36ff
ORC
14
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary
Recommendations
Current Status
Termica
44ff
Liquidation
process Termica
45
1) ACET SA Suceava is a regional water facility operator providing drinking water, sanitation and sewage treatment. The majority is owned by
the city of Suceava (63.8%), while the rest is owned by other regional municipalities
Page
15
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary
Recommendations
Page
Debts to BS
49
Other relevant
trials
&
bankruptcy
Beside the Acet case (decision made by court in Iasi) there are
two additional legal proceedings against Termica ongoing. Both
cases are sued by BS for filing the bankruptcy of Termica
Decisions are expected in April. According to Mr. Ciurtin it is
assumed that the court in Suceava will follow the decision in Iasi
45
Unicom
44ff
16
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary
Recommendations
Page
Pricing Termica
Termica receives 57 EUR (256 Lei) net per Gcal delivered to the
end-consumer, thereof 41% as subvention from the municipality of
Suceava. These revenues were below costs for heat, losses and
own internal costs, as the debts of Termica increased in the last 2
years
We understand that a new tender of the heat distribution and
transportation concession will be issued by the city of Suceava in
April 2015. From our understanding a new Termica could operate
on a more efficient and cost optimized way, thus leading to a
improved profitability
48
Pricing BS to
Termica
The heat price invoiced by BS per Gcal to Termica with 116 LEI is
currently one of the lowest prices in Romania. The price is fixed
until Q4 2019 and should also remain if a new Termica will be set
up as the former contract was erected with the city
48
Benchmarking
50
17
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1)
2)
Key issue
Summary
Recommendations
Page
Business
planning results
55ff
In the Power driven scenario the accumulated CFADS surpasses bank debt, however this scenario requires also significant wc financing and is
not recommended due to high operational risks
Factors such as costs for biomass, price increase, etc.
18
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary
Business plan
sensitivities
Business plan
limitations
Recommendations
Page
55ff
55ff
19
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary
Financial
controlling
Recommendations
Page
85ff
20
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary
Reporting and
budgeting
Recommendations
Page
85ff
21
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1)
Key issue
Summary
Lease contract
BS with HS
Plant
construction
supplier and cost
overrun
Recommendations
Page
64
22
AGENDA
Executive summary
Procurement
Green certificates
Termica & Thermical supply
Current trading and forecast
Business plan and sensitivity analysis
Assumptions
Business Plan Scenarios
Controlling & Reporting standards
23
PROCUREMENT
Romania
Bacau
Botosani
Iasi
Neamt
Suceava
Vaslui
Nord-East
Romania
3.129 1.189
153
421
275
Total
in Tm
18.705
883
119
267
1.201
2.531
168
5.167
28%
Comments
24
PROCUREMENT
AB
AB
CV
CJ
CJ
Chipboard plant
Cogeneration plant 15 MW
Cogeneration plant 15 MW
Cogeneration plant 10 MW
Cogeneration plant 1,2 MW
Consump.
pa. (atro to)
160.000
360.000
240.000
130.000
130.000
50.000
10.000
1.080.000
600.000
130.000
130.000
65.000
10.000
935.000
2.015.000
S.C. General Energetic S.A. situated in Pangarati, Neamt, about 120 km south west of
Suceava; production 43 MWh
SCR Dej (company A6 Impex S.A.) located in Dej, Cluj county, about 250 km west of Suceava;
production 67 MWh; company controlled by Stefan Vuza, well known business man from Cluj,
owner of a group of companies named SCR, Romanian Commercial Services
Comments
Alternative sourcing from the Ukraine is not possible for nonintegrated biomass power plants
25
PROCUREMENT
18,000
16,000
Price
14,000
(EUR per
12,000
atro
to)
10,000
91
91
80
79
100
92
84
79
84
80
90
85
77
76
80
70
8,000
13,296
6,000
4,000
Volume
(atro
to)
2,000
92
Holzwerke
Schweighofer raised
prices again
15,604
11,595
8,682
6,032
8,132
8,437
7,047
7,517
Aug-14
Sep-14
4,379
12,568
12,177
11,527
10,194
60
50
5,534
40
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Holzwerke Schweighofer
stopped delivering biomass
due to open amounts of over
1.0 mEUR from BS
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
26
PROCUREMENT
City of
Suceava
Name of
supplier
1 Supplier
2 Supplier
3 Supplier
4 Supplier
5 Supplier
6 Supplier
7 Supplier
8 Supplier
Business
Atro to
activity per month
wood
1.000
processing
furniture
1.000
manufact.
logging
700
logging
500
logging
500
wood
processing
500
logging
furniture
manufact.
400
300
Qualities
EUR*
/ atro to
wood waste
90
n/a
wood waste
wood waste,
logs, firewood
chips, dry wood,
waste, firewood
whitewood and
beech waste,
bark
firewood
wood waste
55
66
53
55 (m)
40
37
Comments
27
PROCUREMENT
Ownership
STATE
Forest owners
PRIVATE
Approach
Participate in major auctions to
identify timber buyers or secure
standing wood for own cutting
Individuals
Companies
Harvesting
companies
Wood processing
industry
Wholesalers
PRIVATE
Individuals
Companies
PRIVATE
PRIVATE
Comments
28
PROCUREMENT
Bioenergy Suceava
direct
contractual
biomass
delivery
relation
SC ForstPan
(Mr. Panaite)
External
intermediary
representing
the BS
purchasing
department
Wood / biomass
suppliers
Comments
Purchasing is currently done by Mr. Panaite / SC ForstPan SRL
(fully owned by Mr. Panaite)
Consulting contract with fixed fee of 4,000,- EUR per month
Mr. Panaite declined to receive fees from suppliers
Mr. Panaite has several years of experience (>12 years) in the
forest, wood processing and biomass industry in Romania
(among others Kronospan Romania)
As per Mr. Fischer from IC-Project, Mr. Panaite is well connected in the
wood industry and is also well known by relevant people in the industry
Mr. Panaite acts as a external advisor managing the total biomass
purchasing procedure at BS:
identifying suppliers
negotiation of contracts, prices
defining volumes.
There are no other employees of BS assisting in the biomass
purchasing process to date
Mr. Panaite is working in the name of BS; all contracts and agreements
with suppliers are agreed between BS and the suppliers directly
From Mr. Ilie we understand that the establishment of a BS internal
purchasing department is considered necessary to medium-term to
handle the biomass procurement fully professionally
reduce dependency and risk
build in-house relationships with the suppliers
Mr. Panaite presented a potential future purchasing department model
(1 manager, 4 biomass buyers, 2 back office assistants, etc.)
GCI supports the plan to develop an in-house purchasing
department
The implementation should be done on a step-by-step basis
29
PROCUREMENT
Daily
reporting of
deliveries
and stock
levels
Current focus is to
secure production
and qualify BS as a
reliable buyer of
biomass!
Supplier
Sends invoices to
BS based on the
weekly delivery list
send by BS the
purchasing
department
Source: Management information
Production
Procurement
Accounting
(Suceava)
Controlling
(Bucharest)
Quality checks
Comments
Procurement currently
handled very pragmatic
No transparent,
integrated and regular
process in place
Purchasing currently heat
driven to secure
production
Timing of deliveries (FC
delivery schedule),
definition of qualities, etc.
not scheduled
Supplier contracts are
only framework
agreements considering
prices and volumes for a
certain period (3-12
month)
No obligation for
suppliers fulfill their
contracts (only with
intense pressure from BS
side enforceable at the
moment)
30
PROCUREMENT
1
BS
triggers
an order
Truck arrival in
the warehouse
3
Compliance
checking of
delivery
documents
Visual
inspection of
biomass
quality
Approval for
unload and
reception
Calculation
biomass volume
c
Unloading
d
e
Comments:
The overall responsibility for the stock management is with Mr. Straton
All truck deliveries has to pass the weighting platform when entering and
leaving the storage area. At the weight all relevant delivery data is
checked, entered in to the computer system and also documented in a
handwritten register (internal registration manual also for internal checks)
A truck can only enter the area, if compliance (official clearance for log
wood necessary) and the quality of the load (inspected physically; 4
pictures to be taken from each load) is approved
Weighing of the
loaded truck
6
Delivery note
Biomass
sampling
Weighing of the
unloaded truck
31
PROCUREMENT
Jul-14 Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14 Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
8,234
38.2%
8,538
7,047
33.7%
7,034
7,549
31.0%
8,024
5,514
36.8%
4,895
11,702
39.5%
10,836
12,569
42.3%
12,211
12,182
42.7%
12,008
11,527
45.4%
10,803
1.037
0.998
1.063
0.888
0.926
0.972
0.986
0.937
1.039
1.039
1.039
1.039
1.039
1.039
1.039
1.039
7,508
33.0
6,119
34.6
7,148
32.4
4,384
33.2
9,971
36.7
11,398
36.7
11,178
35.3
10,064
34.4
248
212
232
145
366
419
394
347
7,144
22.2
4,201
22.2
5,372
22.2
8,946
22.2
27,776
22.2
32,248
22.2
33,183
22.2
30,890
22.2
158
93
119
198
616
715
735
685
GC granted
GC sold
Price per GC / EUR
Total GC sales TEUR
13,808
14,000
29.8
417
14,956
15,000
29.6
444
18,384
15,000
29.6
444
14,226
15,000
29.6
444
8,691
17,000
29.6
503
19,857
31,000
29.6
917
22,695
28,000
29.6
828
22,356
28,000
29.6
828
823
748
794
787
1,484
2,050
1,958
1,859
Comments
The specific power production is an
efficiency indicator
Specific power production is defined as
the power produced using one atro ton of
biomass, measured in MWh / atro ton
The indicator is influenced by the quality
of the biomass, operation of the boilers
and load factor of the boilers
According to existing data we had a
biomass with:
o LHV of 4.85 MWh / atro ton,
o 30% water content,
o 5% ash content and
o boiler load of 29 MW biomass
Calculating the specific power production
using this parameters we have an
optimal specific power production of
1.039 MWh / atro tons (4 fully loaded
boilers)
If the specific consumption in
November 2014 would have been
equal to the optimal level, this would
have led to savings of 1,275 atro tons
of biomass, representing about 117
kEUR
32
PROCUREMENT
atro to
5,085
2,009
Jun-14
4,021
4,271
3,372
5,991
5,271
2,741
619
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Comments
33
PROCUREMENT
Improved
Optimal
Negative
Risk of stock out
Limited mixing possibility leading to
suboptimal plant operation
No opportunity to use price fluctuations
and seasonality
Negative
Limited possibility to use price
fluctuations and seasonality
Optimal plant operation from the point
of view of the biomass available
Negative
Limited storage space by the premises
of BS
Higher working capital need during the
summer months
Positive
Low working capital
Positive
Reduction of stock-out risk
Optimal mixing of biomass possible
Positive
Optimal sourcing price
Excess energy usage for drying the
biomass for future use
34
PROCUREMENT
Optimized purchasing
1
Jan.
2
120%
17,000
Feb.
Apr.
12,080
95%
11,600
122%
15,120
100%
12,080
95%
120%
17,000
122%
15,120
Mar.
25,800
95%
100%
95%
95%
95%
95%
95%
100%
95%
100%
95%
May
7,100
95%
Jun.
7,100
100%
Jul.
6,800
100%
Aug.
6,800
102%
7,000
102%
95%
Sep.
7,100
107%
7,000
107%
95%
13,300
8,000
7,000
Oct.
11,600
122%
5,000
122%
95%
Nov.
11,600
122%
5,000
122%
95%
120%
95%
Dec.
120%
16,400
Biomass in atro to
8,000
130,300
130,300
130,300
11,163
10,734
9,531
-4%
-15%
Comments
Basic data from BS
130 k atro tons scenario
The analysis assumes:
price per atro ton of 77
EUR and
storage limit of 23,000
atro tons at BS
1. Scenario 1: current
status of purchasing
(monthly purchases
equals consumption)
2. Scenario 2: assuming
strategic purchasing
and stock build-up
when prices are
comparable low (stock
level <= 2 month)
3. Scenario 3: assuming
contractually secured
procurement of annual
biomass consumption
at a lowest price
35
AGENDA
Executive summary
Procurement
Green certificates
Termica & Thermical supply
Current trading and forecast
Business plan and sensitivity analysis
Assumptions
Business Plan Scenarios
Controlling & Reporting standards
36
GREEN CERTIFICATES
GREEN CERTIFICATES
37
e =
( ETC + CSITIC )
EETC
and t =
CTCC
CTCC
e , ref
100
t ,ref
100
100
=
= 304,91
+ 0, 005 ) p pierd .evit ( 0, 33 + 0, 005 ) 0, 979
100
=
= 116, 28
0,86
FC = X e + Y t
t ,cogE =
Cech =
( FCmin X e )
Y
e
t ,cogE
38
GREEN CERTIFICATES
Previuos month
19
14 days
Comments
Procedure for the basic GC (2 GC per
MWh eligible delivered to grid):
o Transelectrica SA is the issuing
authority for Green Certificates
o Until the 5th of each month BS has to
file the delivered power figures to
Transelectrica (the power transport
company) for the previous month.
o Transelectrica proofs the
documentation and has 14 days to
issue the GCs
o Within BS responsible for the
reporting to the authorities and the
trades of BS is the Commercial
Manager (currently Mrs. Doina Oica)
Documents check performed at the
site in Suceava: according to the letter
10396 dated 16.03.2015 Transelectrica
granted BS 20,129 basic GCs based on
the production of February 2015 and
49,223 high efficiency GCs for the period
July to December 2014. This confirms a
well functioning reporting at BS
39
GREEN CERTIFICATES
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
6
Transelectricaa
issues high eff.
GCs
3
Transelectrica
issues high eff.
GCs for Jan-Jun
5
ANRE issues a
notification of power
qualified as high
efficiency for past year
2
ANRE issues a
notification of power
qualified as high
efficiency for Jan Jun
1
Filing to ANRE: First
semester qualification
documents to High
efficiency cogeneration
Source: Management information; GCI analysis
4
Filing to ANRE: Annually
qualification to High
efficiency cogeneration
Comments
GCs are sold through OPCOM (the
operator of the energy market) to EON
according to the bilateral agreement
between BS and EON
Currently BS sells only very less GCs on
the open market of OPCOM. The open
market OPCOM matches demand and offer
1-2 times per calendar month and GC are
sold pro rata. E.g. offer for January 2015
has been 1 million GC and demand has
been 10,300 GC, so the sellers sold 1% of
the GCs at the offered price of 131 LEI
Within BS responsible for the reporting to
ANRE and the trades of GCs is the
Commercial Manager (currently Mrs. Oica)
The process of GC reporting is performed
well. The qualification for high efficiency
was received in March 16th, 2015 being a
proof that the reporting was completed
accurately and in time
40
GREEN CERTIFICATES
Jan.15
-
Feb.15
9,801
9,801
-
Mar.15
11,502
11,502
9,801
9,801
9,801
9,801
0
Apr.15
4,471
4,598
11,502
11,502
11,502
May15
3,500
3,413
4,598
4,598
7,526
7,526
8,574
Jun.15
7,000
6,904
6,825
6,825
8,435
8,000
435
6,964
Jul.15 Aug.15
7,508
6,119
7,478
6,089
13,808 14,956
13,808 14,956
14,000 15,000
14,000 15,000
6,772
6,728
Sep.15
7,148
7,113
18,384
12,178
6,206
15,000
15,000
10,113
Oct.15
4,384
4,346
14,226
14,226
15,000
15,000
9,338
Nov.15
9,971
9,929
8,691
8,691
17,000
17,000
1,030
Dec.15
11,398
11,348
19,857
19,857
12,000
31,000
31,000
1,887
Total
82,802
82,520
122,649
116,443
6,206
12,000
132,762
115,000
17,762
Comments
BS is entitled to receive 2 GCs per eligible MWh sold and up to one more per eligible MWh sold if it qualifies for high efficiency
as defined by the regulatory authority
During test runs (February to April 2014) the plant was eligible only for 1 GC per MWh sold. The qualification for high efficiency
can be made only after the commissioning of the plant
For the year of operation (FY 2014) BS received 0.98 GCs per eligible MWh sold; high efficiency production started end of April
BS has concluded a long-term contract with EON (2014 - 2023) for the sale of 115,000 GC in 2014 and thereafter 300,000 GC
per anno at the minimal legal price set by the regulator. In FY 2014 a total number of 115,000 GCs were sold to EON at a price
of 130.7 Lei (about 29 EUR)
To meet the contractual quota in 2014 BS had to buy additional 12,000 GCs on the open market in December. This was due to
the low stock of GCs as an effect of the production stop in October resulting from a lack of biomass
Expenses for GC purchases are accounted for in other operating expenses in the P&L; the GCs bought on the open market
were sold to EON at the same price
Selling on the open market is not an option due to the over-supply of GCs; we expect that trading of GCs on the open market
within the next 12 to 18 month will be limited
Comment: Power eligible for GC - not all sold energy is eligible for GCs, due to network balancing costs. In case of BS approximately 99% of the sold
electrical energy is considered eligible for GC
Source: Management information; GCI analysis
In FY 2014
BS had to buy
12,000 GCs
on the open
market to
fulfill the EON
contract
41
GREEN CERTIFICATES
Jan.15
11,224
11,178
22,695
22,695
4,991
28,000
28,000
1,573
Feb.15
10,097
10,064
22,356
22,356
5,000
28,000
28,000
929
Mar.15
9,797
9,700
69,351
20,128
49,223
35,000
35,000
35,280
Apr.15
8,835
8,748
19,400
19,400
35,000
35,000
19,680
May15
8,596
8,511
17,496
17,496
20,000
20,000
17,176
Jun.15
8,319
8,237
17,023
17,023
20,000
20,000
14,199
Jul.15 Aug.15
8,596
4,298
8,511
4,256
16,474 17,023
16,474 17,023
20,000 19,000
20,000 19,000
10,672
8,695
Sep.15
8,319
8,237
64,949
8,511
56,438
20,000
20,000
53,644
Oct.15
10,124
10,024
16,474
16,474
20,000
20,000
50,118
Nov.15
12,799
12,672
20,048
20,048
20,000
20,000
50,166
Dec.15
17,193
17,023
25,344
25,344
35,000
35,000
40,510
Total
118,199
117,160
328,632
222,971
105,661
9,991
300,000
300,000
-
Comments
In order to meet the contractual demand of EON, at the beginning of 2015 BS had to buy about 10,000 GCs on the open market
This is mainly due to the fact that high efficiency GCs are not granted until March for the last year
We understand from BS that no further GC purchases are expected in the future, based upon the latest forecast
At the end of 2015 BS is expected to have in stock 40,000 GCs which will expire in Nov 2016
For the sale of excess GCs BS need to increase the quota with EON or alternatively conclude bilateral contracts with other buyers
Energy sales:
BS has a power supply contract with EON, valid until 31.12.2015 (20 days notice period)
The power has to be between 5 MW and 27 MW, 24h a day, for all days of the year
The price is set at 140 Lei/MWh, including transport costs (7.8 Lei/MWh) for introducing the power in the grid, according to ANRE ordinance
nr.51/2014
We understood from the BS management that EON would want to buy for each 3 GC bought 1 MWh electrical energy
This contract gives on the one hand predictability of revenues but also might limit the volumes of energy that can be sold on the next day
market to higher prices. So its a trade off between securing sales of power and GC versus obtaining higher prices
Source: Management information; GCI analysis
42
GREEN CERTIFICATES
Bucharest
Turnover 2013
(mLEI)
4,441
Bucharest
2,069
230
3 Enel Energie SA
Bucharest
2,007
336
4 CEZ Vanzare SA
Craiova
1,560
45
5 Tinmar Ind SA
Bucharest
1,387
59
Bucharest
821
12
7 Transenergo Com SA
Bucharest
722
19
Bucharest
550
53
Bucharest
510
13
Bucharest
181
22
Brasov
139
108
12 EURO P.E.C. SA
Galati
44
56
Headquarters
No.
employees
1,165
Comments
Power suppliers are potential further business
partners for energy and GC trading
For each MWh sold, the energy suppliers have
to show 0.218 GCs. This value is set annually
by ANRE and shall increase next years. It is the
main influence factor for the demand of green
certificates
We estimate that this demand covers 70%-80%
of 2015 GC market
Currently the market is only for business clients
deregulated, the market for private clients is still
regulated (captive customers)
Power suppliers can supply to any non-captive
customer in Romania
EON is the power supplier of captive customers
(house-holds) for the North-East region of
Romania, region where BS is located
Enel is in the South-East and West part, CEZ in
the South West. Electrica delivers to the captive
customers of the rest of the regions
43
AGENDA
Executive summary
Procurement
Green certificates
Termica & Thermical supply
Current trading and forecast
Business plan and sensitivity analysis
Assumptions
Business Plan Scenarios
Controlling & Reporting standards
44
Bioenergy
Suceava was
finalized
2013
Insolvency
proceedings
started 28th
June 2013
2014
2015
Unicom reorganization
plan rejected by court;
definite executable
decision for liquidation
of Termica (Acet
against Termica case)
Source: Interview with Insolvency administrator, the mayor of Suceava, Cuirtin Associates, Management information, GCI research
45
SC ACET SA
against Termica
closed
Bioenergy Suceava
against Termica
open
Bioenergy Suceava
against Termica
open
Source: Interview with Insolvency administrator, the mayor of Suceava, Cuirtin Associates, Management information, GCI research
46
Liquidation process
Status
Until recently Termica was operating under the umbrella of an
insolvency / reorganization process
Reorganization plan proposed by Unicom (admitted on 17th June
2014) included the following tasks:
o 100% coverage of the claims of creditors
o possibility for the initial creditors of trade-in of Termica
assets (e.g. heat supply equipment and installations, 110
kV station)
The reorganization plan proposed by Unicom has been cancelled
by the Court of Iasi on 20th March 2015. The motivation of the
court is expected to be published in 2-4 weeks after the sentence
have been announced
Next steps
Court has to appoint the liquidator. Usually it is the former
judiciary administrator. Creditors assembly has the right to
change the liquidator. Assets can, but must not be re-assessed
The liquidator shall present to the committee of creditors a report
which shall include the assessment of assets and the modality of
sale
Creditors will then vote for auction or direct negotiation, lump or
by item
According to Mr. Ciurtin a liquidation process can last about 3 to
6 months
In the liquidation process, the claims of BS have priority
status compared to the claims of the initial creditors (BS
became creditor during the insolvency process)
Potential consequences
BS will use the latest court decision in its own trial
Operational and commercial consequences remain open,
however we understand that the creditor status will improved in a
liquidation process
Potential consequences
BS can participate in the liquidation process and buy relevant
assets (e.g. 110 kV transformer)
BS may claim satisfaction of its claim from assets involved in the
insolvency proceeding
Source: Interview with Insolvency administrator, the mayor of Suceava, Cuirtin Associates, Management information, GCI research
47
Boiler
house 1
Termica area
Chipper
and dryer
Boiler
house 2
Relevant assets to
operate the plant
on Termica land
Comments
In our understanding the following Termica
assets are relevant for BS:
o 110 kV transformer station: currently
rented by BS for 41 kEUR per month; rent
is currently not paid out but charged
against the open amounts from Termica;
we understand that a new investment in a
transformer station would amount to about
1.5 to 2.5 mEUR; a disconnection from
the network is according to Mr. Ciurtin not
possible (EU regulation and local laws)
o Pipelines and pumping equipment: we
learned that the pumping station including
equipment and the pipelines from Termica
to the City connection (about 3-4 km) is
pledged to ACET (ACET partly owned by
the municipality of Suceava)
o Land under these pipelines: pledged to
fiscal authority
In the bankruptcy process BS disposes a
priority status. Mr. Ciurtin stated that BS
improved significantly its status in comparison
to the reorganization proceedings before
Source: Interview with Insolvency administrator, the mayor of Suceava, Cuirtin Associates, Management information, GCI research
48
Real estate
administration
<150 LEI
116 LEI
Bioenergy
Suceava
Heat
Termica
(total price
256 LEI)
150 LEI
Heat
Consumer
106 LEI
Tender to replace Termica
for district heating service
to start on April 16th
(decision to be expected
until July 2015
Termica keeps
140 Lei from
256 Lei / Gcal
distributed
City of Suceava
Heat losses
currently 40%
between BS
and endconsumer
Collectabil
it is said to
be about
80%
Comments
The price for the heat delivery to Termica was
originally fixed in course of the energy production
tender with the city of Suceava at 116 LEI / Gcal
until Q4 of 2019 (agreed between BS and city of
Suceava); renegotiation of terms of payment as
soon as the tender for heat distribution and
transport is finalized and a new customer fixed
The price received by Termica for the transport
and distribution of heat is approved by ANRSC and
amounts to total 256 LEI / Gcal. The chargeable
price is related to the total internal cost basis of
Termica. The consumer price depends on the
subvention granted by the city council
The heat price of 116 LEI invoiced by BS per
Gcal to Termica is currently one of the lowest
prices in Romania. As mentioned before the
price is fixed until Q4 2019 and should also
remain if a new Termica will be set up as the
former contract was erected with the city
The city of Suceava plans to further improve the
heat transport network. An investment project of
about 50 mEUR was applied by the EU and a
decision is expected in the next 12 month1)
A tender for heating and transport distribution
will start in April 2015
1) Our research shows that Suceava has not filed for an improvement project yet and is currently not listed as municipality with projects in implementation;
It seems that the new Large Infrastructure Operational Program will primarily be provided for 7 cities (Iasi, Bacau, etc.) already in the program
Source: Interview with the mayor of Suceava, Management information, GCI research
49
Feb-15 28-Feb-15
TOTAL
Heat sold
(Gcal)
23,285
15,659
6,534
6,544
6,143
3,613
4,619
7,692
23,883
27,728
28,532
Invoiced amount
kLEI
kEUR
3,349
744
2,252
501
940
209
941
209
884
196
520
115
664
148
1,106
246
3,435
763
3,988
886
4,104
912
Open amount
kLEI
kEUR
731
163
880
195
520
115
664
148
1,106
246
3,435
763
3,988
886
4,104
912
26,561
3,821
849
3,821
849
180,793
26,005
5,779
19,250
4,278
1) From an accounting perspective the amounts received were booked against the oldest invoices (also before March 2014)
Source: Management information
Comments
Termica had a bad payment history and
overdue payments to BS amount to 4.3 mEUR
at the beginning of March 2015
Payments in the period October 2014 to
February 2015 were received from Termica in
the amount of 2.6 mEUR, which represents
about 72% of the heat invoiced from BS in that
period.1) We understand that the payments
were triggered originally by the City of Suceava
in order to secure heat supply
Considering the likely scenario of bankruptcy
starting with May or June 2015 the currently
open amounts from Termica are at risk. No
specific allowance was considered by
management in the books so far
50
County
Termica SA
Suceava
CET SA Bacau
Bacau
R.A.M. Buzau
Buzau
SC TERMO
Arges
SC TETKRON SRL Brasov
SC MODERN CALOR Botosani
SC ENET SA Focsani Vrancea
Existing
Connected
operating
apartments
connections
#
1,654
2,133
1,491
3,181
1,232
1,332
3,084
Selling price
(incl. VAT)
#
LEI/Gcal
19,564
185 biomass
16,594 155 gas, biomass
185 gas
15,326
24,428
200 gas
200 gas
11,462
170 gas, coal
12,063
240 gas, coal
14,017
Comments
The benchmarking is based on our rough research on public
available information. We tried to select cities comparable in
size of operating connections, connected apartments and
revenues
A direct comparison is limited due to different supply sources in
place however it could give at least some hints about the cost
structure of the companies presented
Based on the information gathered from our research Termica
Suceava shows the highest share of expenses in relation to the
number of employees. From our understanding this could be
due to the fact that Termica still employs people from the former
coal plant to close the operation
*Finacial figures for 2013, last fiscal year available
Source: Source: The National Regulatory Authority for Local Public Services; GCI research
Turnover
kLEI
58,297
69,117
44,145
60,402
20,620
43,983
36,750
Total
Net
expenses profit
kLEI
147,393
146,811
47,595
73,756
43,617
45,396
59,547
kLEI
-58,745
-65,292
-1,689
-9,878
-14,432
1,597
-21,035
EmpExpenses /
Turnover / Turnover / Turnover /
loyees
employees
employee connec.
apartm.
#
393
466
220
421
184
219
300
kLEI/#
148
148
201
143
112
201
123
kLEI/#
35
32
30
19
17
33
12
kLEI/#
3
4
3
2
2
4
3
kLEI/#
375
315
216
175
237
207
198
51
AGENDA
Executive summary
Procurement
Green certificates
Termica & Thermical supply
Current trading and forecast
Business plan and sensitivity analysis
Assumptions
Business Plan Scenarios
Controlling & Reporting standards
52
Deviation IBR / BS
2014
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
Actual
FC
Plan
Plan
Plan
Plan
Plan
33.4
84,040
2,796
34.5
117,173
4,045
34.5
137,885
4,764
31.13
151,000
4,700
31.79
151,000
4,800
3.38
(33,827)
(655)
2.72
(13,115)
(36)
30.9
155,380
4,796
29.0
359,117
10,426
29.0
390,399
11,337
(0.33)
(93,883)
(2,874)
(0.32)
(62,601)
(1,963)
26.1
202,083
5,253
25.8
199,615
5,144
25.8
217,764
5,612
26.19
240,517
6,300
26.48
237,931
6,300
(0.42)
(40,902)
(1,156)
(0.71)
(20,167)
(688)
85.5
108,823
9,425
77.0
126,033
9,707
75.0
141,074
10,581
87
159,000
13,800
82
159,000
13,000
(10)
(32,967)
(4,093)
(7)
(17,926)
(2,419)
12,846
(9,425)
(925)
2,496
(626)
(2,393)
(523)
(1,943)
(2,466)
(4,371)
(6,837)
(6,837)
19,615
(9,707)
(328)
9,581
(660)
(1,857)
7,391
(3,481)
3,910
(4,311)
(401)
(401)
21,713
(10,581)
(325)
10,807
(876)
(1,745)
8,512
(3,481)
5,030
(4,664)
366
366
24,300
(13,800)
10,500
(650)
(1,550)
8,300
(3,300)
5,000
(4,500)
500
500
1,000
24,400
(13,000)
11,400
(700)
(1,600)
9,100
(3,300)
5,800
(3,700)
2,100
2,100
4,200
(4,685)
4,093
(2,687)
2,419
(10)
(307)
(909)
(181)
(1,090)
189
(901)
(500)
(1,401)
(176)
(145)
(588)
(181)
(770)
(964)
(1,734)
(2,100)
(3,834)
29.36
453,000
13,300
Source: Management information; PWC IBR Revised draft December 2014; GCI analysis
29.36
453,000
13,300
Comments
The information in the adjacent table is
based on the controlling report 2014 (we
identified an error in the calculation of
GCs in 2014 in the amount of about 0.4
mEUR which then was corrected by Mrs
Rusu in that report), FC 2015, budget
2016 and the IBR from PWC December
2014
FY 2014 shows a significant loss of -6.8
mEUR. This was mainly driven by the
problematic situation with Termica, the
comparable warm winter and the
unfavorable biomass purchasing terms
achieved in that period
FC 2015 (Jan-Feb 2015 actual and MarDec FC) and Plan 2016 from
management shows significant deviations
from the IBR provided in December 2014.
Major differences result from the
optimistic and not with the local
management re-checked assumptions
applied in the IBR (mainly prices and
volumes to be realized and lower costs
estimated)
Includes a payment of 2.5 mLEI
(0.6 mEUR) for not accepted VAT
based on an official audit by
financial authority
53
511
-11%
-1.167
-148
2.540
-2.726
-102
-1.054
Price
effect
Vol.
effect
Price
effect
-307
7.388
1.552
EBITDA
15 IBR
-10
FC 2015 by management
assumes lower biomass
purchase prices
Vol.
effect
Price
effect
Vol.
effect
Price
effect
Vol.
effect
PE
OE
EBITDA
15 BS
EBITDA IBR
EBITDA BS
Electricity
-7%
9.100
411
-453
-145
GCs
-1.818
1.344
-169
-520
-176
-145
1.075
8.506
Heating
Biomass
Costs
EBITDA
16 IBR
Price
effect
Vol.
effect
Price
effect
Vol.
effect
Price
effect
Vol.
effect
Source: Management information; PWC IBR Revised draft December 2014; GCI analysis
Price
effect
Vol.
effect
PE
OE
EBITDA
16 BS
54
AGENDA
Executive summary
Procurement
Green certificates
Termica & Thermical supply
Current trading and forecast
Business plan and sensitivity analysis
Assumptions
Business Plan Scenarios
Controlling & Reporting standards
55
Revenue
Costs
Electricity
(MWh)
Price basis contractual agreement with EON and market prices (adjusted for inflation)
Volumes based on plant operation and defined technical parameters (eg. boilers, ash)
Green certificates
(# GCs)
Heating
(MWh)
Biomass costs
(atro tons)
Average price of last three month (excl. HS), adjusted for inflation over planning period
Biomass consumption based on plant operation and defined technical parameters
Based on the existing employees base and additional costs for purchasing department
Existing operating cost base increased by expected annual maintenance costs
Adjusted for inflation
Receivables from Termica of 4.3 mEUR in FY 2015 as upside potential
Liabilities to Schweighofer from biomass purchases in the amount of 1.6 mEUR
considered as equity/shareholder loan
Based on existing financing facilities and defined interest and payback parameters
Shareholder loans subordinated priority in terms of debt service
Technical parameters based on the current plant performance and plant design
Energy balance parameters defining plant production and biomass consumption
Personnel costs
Other costs
Bank
Financing
Shareholders
Production
model
Source: Management information; GCI analysis
Energy balance
56
Basic assumptions
Technical parameters
Commercial parameters
Price of power = 34 EUR/MWh for 2015, increases with the
inflation rate
29.0
58.0
87.0
116.0
7.5
13.5
20.5
28.5
17.5
36.5
54.5
71.5
Heat demand:
57
3 SB
2 SB
H0 Fuel heat
MW
116
MW
87
MW
58
H1 Boiler heat
100
75
50
H2 Heat production
71.5
54.5
36.5
60
45
11.5
11.5
9.5
12
16
12
13
28.5
20.5
13.5
P2 Delivered power
26
18.5
12
2.5
1.5
H3 Delivered heat
H4
P1 Power production
P1p
Comments
Based on our discussions with BS management and the production manager we
derived the energy balance as shown in the adjacent table
The business plan models are based on this energy balance however defer in the
number of steam boilers (SB) used monthly (eg. winter season 4 SB and summer
season 2 SB)
P2
P1
H1
H2
H2
p
H0
p
Winter
P1
Summer
H4
H3
Biomass
Heat
H0
Usage of heat
Electric power
SB = Steam boiler
Source: Management information
58
H 0 = 29 N
The power production (MW) of the plant is dependent on the
number of used boilers (N) according to the following law:
H 0 = 29 3 = 87 MW
P1 = 0,5 32 + 4,5 3 + 2,5 = 20,5 MW
59
TWh
60.0
50.0
52.7
51.5 53.0 52.2 49.7 51.2 51.1 51.1 51.2 51.7 52.1 52.6
47.9
40.0
48.0 49.3
45.6 46.8
43.2 44.4
42.1
41.0
38.8 39.9
35.8 36.8 37.8
33.1 34.0 34.9
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Volume assumptions
Romanian market internal consumption is assumed to remain
stable in the following years with a slight increase of 0.9% starting
from 2018
The estimated consumption will reach about 52.6 TWh in the year
2020*
The average income level in Romania is relatively low compared
to the EU average making the power price sensitive to political
decisions
Price assumptions
After years of steep increases, the average price in the last
semester of 2014 was 36.7 EUR per MWh for bilateral contracts
(including Transelectrica costs of approximately 1.5 to 2.0 EUR
per MWh)
Energy prices are assumed to increase at inflation
The management policy is to secure the GC sale and energy
sales through bilateral contracts
60
GC assumptions
As producer of energy from renewable sources, BS receives the
incentives according to the law 220/2008 in form of GCs
The renewable energy producer receives this incentives for 15
years, in BS case until beginning of 2029
GCs are traded by BS via a bilateral contract with EON. The price
specified in the contract is linked to the prices communicated by
ANRE (minimum price)
In the business plan analysis the price of GC is assumed to
remain at the minimum price
Source: ANRE Decisions, Law 220/2008 with subsequent modifications
Quality factor
41.2 42.3
39.0 40.1
38.0
36.0 37.0
34.2 35.1
32.4 33.3
31.6
29.9 30.7
28.2 28.9 29.3 29.1
140
135
70%
130
65%
125
60%
120
55%
115
50%
110
45%
Total Efficiency
Global efficiency
High efficiency
Energy producer have to file to ANRE specific information related
to energy production, own energy consumption, energy delivered
to third parties and fuel consumption
In order to receive the full high efficiency GC per eligible MWh
large CHP plants with electrical power >25 MW (BS has 29.7
MW) have to meet the following parameters :
Quality Factor (FC) >111.1 and
Combined efficiency of the cogeneration plant (gl) >70%
The award ration of 3rd GC in the scenarios varies from 1 to 0.86
per MWh until 2028
61
Number of apartments
40,000
360
380
326
312
35,000
20,000
261
235
30,000
25,000
330
274
23,605 22,800
232
255
250
246
242
239
236
232
231
231
231
231
231
231
GWh
280
230
22,158
20,769 19,564
19,173 18,837 18,554 18,322 18,139 18,003 17,913 17,868 17,868 17,868 17,868 17,868 17,868 17,868 17,868
15,000
180
130
10,000
80
5,000
30
-20
Heating assumptions
The number of apartments will decrease over the planning period. The decrease will slow down from 2% in 2015 to 0.25% in 2022.
Thereafter the number of apartments is considered constant. This dynamic is due to the fact that more apartments will be reconnected to the
network as the quality of services will improve that will partially compensate from the disconnections from the network
Heat consumption from companies will increase starting from 2017 at 0.25% pa. From 2023 onwards consumption will remain constant
Heat consumption is formed by the sum of apartments, household consumption and companies consumption with the additions of network
losses. The losses are considered to decrease from 37% in 2015 to 32% in 2025 (investments of 50 mEUR planned by the City of Suceava)
The average heat consumption for each month, for one apartment was based on average value in 2010-2013 based on the consumption
data gathered from Termica
1) Based on our research and analysis of the current funding programms, an impact of EU-funding will have less effect within the next foreseeable
future; Suceava has not filed for an improvement project yet and is currently not listed as municipality with projects in implementation
Source: Management information; GCI analysis
62
All costs are increased over the planning period by 2.7% pa.
Depreciation:
1) Considering an investment of about 1.5 to 2.5 mEUR for a new transformer station BS could re-finance a new investment with 41 kEUR pm. within 5
years; as the current lease fee is comparable high we assumed that BS is able to re-negotiate terms
Source: Management information; IC-P information; GCI analysis
63
Purpose
Facility A
CAPEX
Facility A hedged CAPEX
Facility B
CAPEX
Facility B hedged CAPEX
VAT bridge loan VAT
WC facility
WC
Contract
date
Orig.
amount
21.03.13 54,400,000
21.03.13
3,350,000
21.03.13
21.03.13
2,950,000
5,000,000
65,700,000
Overdue
Open amount
Total due as Urbas payment
Total open
interest and
as of 31.03.15
of 31.03.15 invest.capex1) amount 20152)
instalments
23,388,514
4,517,854 27,906,369
4,788,000
32,694,369
23,388,514
2,284,990 25,673,504
25,673,504
1,529,348
443,250
1,972,598
1,972,598
1,529,348
177,420
1,706,768
1,706,768
1,024,889
1,024,889
1,024,889
5,000,000
4,968,977
4,968,977
55,860,613
7,423,514 63,253,103
4,788,000
68,041,103
Financing banks
1) To be drawn
2) A conservative approach was applied and the total amount considered in the business plan
Source: Management information; IC-P information; GCI analysis
OeKB
Repayment Original
Interest parameters guaranty
parameters maturity
fee
35 quarters 15.03.23 EURIBOR 3m +3.0% 3.377%
35 quarters 15.03.23
1,27% +3.0% 3.377%
23 quarters 15.03.20 EURIBOR 3m +6.9%
23 quarters 15.03.20
1,27%+6.9%
8 quarters 28.02.15 EURIBOR 3m +5.2%
- 31.03.15 EURIBOR 3m +5.2%
-
Shareholder loans
64
Cost
overrun
200,000
0
800,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
Total
9,487,954
344,000
800,000
653,000
1,670,000
12,954,954
Comments
We were also informed that a total cost overrun of 2.0 mEUR resulted
from the erection of the plant. Management considers this amount to be
covered by the fixed investment budget or warranties agreed or
shareholders. Cost overruns are not included in the business plan
65
No. boilers
120%
8
100%
7
100%
6
75%
80%
5
63%
100%
7 94%
6
75%
5
4
3
Balanced plan
Efficiency
50%
60%
25%
100%
75%
50%
40%
80%
40%
2
20%
1
0
0%
20%
0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Balanced scenario
This scenario is linked to the original plant
design. It is balanced between the power
production and heat demand (loosely
following the heat demand curve)
This scenario would increase the power
production and the related GCs. The high
efficiency of the plant is mostly obtained
Profitability in that scenario would
increase; the influence of fixed costs will
be lower
From an operational point of view this
would be safest scenario
120%
100%
100%
7
75%
100%
80%
5
4
60%
40%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
8
6
60%
120%
100%
75%
Efficiency
No. boilers
20%
1
0
0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
66
45,000
atro tons2)
Start WC investment
Balanced
2.1 mEUR
Heat
1.9 mEUR
Power
1.6 mEUR
Balanced
Power
Heat
Average
21,841
30,332
15,065
Scenario:
Balanced
Power
Heat
23,000
atro tons1)
2017
2018
Comments
The stock development is cyclic for all the operating scenarios
Plant operation will require mixing wet biomass delivered by
the suppliers with dried biomass in stock to obtain the target
30% water content; the use of the dryer is a basic technical
assumption in the business plan models
Currently only wood chips can be dried at BS; although
storage is open, dried chips keep water content even under
difficult conditions
As most of the stock build up is made during a wet season, the
assumed water content of the dry biomass is 20%
All three scenarios require additional storage capacities in
certain months (stock build-up)
67
Power
Heat
Power
Balanced
driven driven
driven
120,540
108,396
346,316
254,790
116,066
0.9629
177,684
159,431
473,512
254,790
175,228
0.9862
200,700
179,685
533,667
254,790
197,624
0.9847
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
147%
147%
137%
100%
151%
102%
167%
166%
154%
100%
170%
102%
3,858
10,640
5,647
20,146
-9,207
5,674
14,548
5,647
25,870
-13,759
6,396
16,224
5,647
28,267
-15,536
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
147%
137%
100%
128%
149%
166%
152%
100%
140%
169%
8,216
79,645
70,809
-87,515
9,302
97,245
84,079
-87,515
9,923
102,520
94,006
-87,515
100%
100%
100%
100%
113%
122%
119%
100%
121%
129%
133%
100%
68
Balanced
Power Driven
Negative
Dependency on heat sales
Lowest CFADS leading to longer loan
repayment
Negative
Increases stock requirement in order to
maximize the high efficiency GC
awarded
Need for higher storage area and
potentially coverage of parts to maintain
water content in dried biomass
Negative
Highest stock required to maintain the
water content of input biomass at 30%
The ancillary equipment used
intensively - higher maintenance costs
Unclear performance of dryer
Positive
Low working capital
High efficiency GC is fully awarded
All heat is used either for sale or to
reduce biomass specific consumption
Reduced risk for GC sale
Positive
Increase of CFADS leading to a shorter
loan repayment period
Decrease of the dependency on heat
sales
Optimal plant running
Positive
Highest CFADS which leads to a further
reduction of the loan repayment period
Lowest dependency on heat sales
The best biomass efficiency
69
Total efficiency
80.4%
EBITDA in kEUR
86.2%
7,763
6,642
70.0%
Heat
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Power for sale
Internal power
Heat demand
Dryer
Cooler
Fuel used
Comments
The biomass heat is used only for power
generation and the fulfilling of heat demand of
the city
During the summer the excess heat generated
by the only working steam boiler is used to
increase the stock of dried biomass
The produced power is minimal, the operation
of the CHP plant is driven by heat demand.
Therefore the cooler is not used
avg 7.810
Target
Comments
This scenario of CHP plant operation is fully
compliant with the high efficiency requirement
for all the years in the analysis. BS will receive
3 GC for each notified MWh power sold
Because the driver for the scenario is the heat
demand, the power production is the smallest
of the three scenarios
The biomass consumption is the smallest from
the three scenarios
The biomass specific consumption is the
highest from the three analyzed scenarios
Heat driven
business case
1,345
Comments
This scenario will generate the lowest EBITDA
of the analyzed scenarios with an average of
7.8 mEUR over the planning period
In order to build up the stock in the first years
there more boilers are used in order to
produce enough heat to increase the
operation hours of the dryer
This scenario is the minimal scenario that the
plant can be operated considering the
requirement to deliver heat to Suceava
70
33,7
34,7
35,6
36,6
37,5
38,6
39,6
40,7
41,8
42,9
44,1
45,2
46,5
47,7
49,0
104.834 124.494 108.396 106.979 106.979 106.979 106.979 102.527 102.527 102.527 102.527 102.527 102.527 102.527 112.508
3.538
4.315
3.858
3.911
4.016
4.125
4.236
4.170
4.282
4.398
4.516
4.638
4.764
4.892
5.514
Green certificates
Price (/GC)
Volume (GC)
No. GCs
Revenue
29,1
29,9
30,7
31,6
32,4
33,3
34,2
35,1
36,0
37,0
38,0
39,0
40,1
41,2
42,3
349.604 361.045 346.316 317.728 317.728 317.728 317.728 304.505 304.505 304.505 304.505 304.505 304.505 304.505 123.627
3,00
3,00
3,00
3,00
3,00
3,00
3,00
3,00
3,00
3,00
3,00
3,00
3,00
3,00
3,00
10.184
10.801
10.640
10.026
10.296
10.574
10.860
10.689
10.977
11.274
11.578
11.891
12.212
12.542
5.229
Heating energy
Price (/MWh)
Volume (MWh)
Revenue
22,2
22,2
22,2
22,2
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
221.550 260.534 254.790 249.830 245.528 241.845 238.751 236.219 234.231 232.496 232.496 232.496 232.496 232.496 230.786
4.911
5.775
5.647
5.537
5.986
5.897
5.821
5.759
5.711
5.669
5.669
5.669
5.669
5.669
5.627
Biomass consumption
Price (/dry tons)
Volume (dry tons)
Biomass costs
77,0
78,2
79,3
80,5
81,7
83,0
84,2
85,5
86,7
88,0
89,4
90,7
92,1
93,4
94,8
117.194 133.558 116.066 114.799 114.799 114.799 114.799 109.813 109.813 109.813 109.813 109.813 109.813 109.813 121.052
(9.024) (10.438)
(9.207)
(9.243)
(9.382)
(9.523)
(9.666)
(9.384)
(9.525)
(9.668)
(9.813)
(9.960) (10.110) (10.261) (11.481)
Revenue
Cost of materials
Purchased services
Gross margin
Other operating revenue
Personnel expenses
Other operating expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Financial result
Profit before tax
Income taxes
Net income
KPIs
Gross margin (in %)
EBITDA margin (in %)
EBIT margin (in %)
2015
Plan
2016
Plan
2017
Plan
2018
Plan
2019
Plan
2020
Plan
2021
Plan
2022
Plan
2023
Plan
2024
Plan
2025
Plan
2026
Plan
2027
Plan
2028
Plan
2029
Plan
18.633
(9.024)
(378)
9.231
20.891
(10.438)
(388)
10.064
20.146
(9.207)
(399)
10.540
19.474
(9.243)
(409)
9.821
20.299
(9.382)
(421)
10.496
20.596
(9.523)
(432)
10.641
20.917
(9.666)
(444)
10.808
20.618
(9.384)
(456)
10.778
20.970
(9.525)
(468)
10.977
21.340
(9.668)
(480)
11.192
21.763
(9.813)
(493)
11.457
22.198
(9.960)
(507)
11.731
22.644
(10.110)
(520)
12.014
23.102
(10.261)
(534)
12.307
16.370
(11.481)
(549)
4.340
(700)
(2.003)
6.642
(3.481)
3.161
(4.417)
(1.256)
(1.256)
(736)
(1.566)
7.763
(3.481)
4.282
(4.416)
(134)
(134)
(743)
(1.581)
8.216
(3.481)
4.735
(3.886)
849
(136)
713
(751)
(1.621)
7.450
(3.481)
3.968
(3.357)
612
(98)
514
(758)
(1.664)
8.074
(3.481)
4.593
(2.838)
1.755
(281)
1.475
(766)
(1.708)
8.167
(3.481)
4.686
(2.319)
2.367
(379)
1.988
(773)
(1.754)
8.281
(3.481)
4.799
(1.800)
3.000
(480)
2.520
(781)
(1.794)
8.202
(3.481)
4.721
(1.293)
3.428
(548)
2.880
(789)
(1.842)
8.346
(3.481)
4.865
(823)
4.042
(647)
3.396
(797)
(1.891)
8.504
(3.481)
5.022
(353)
4.670
(747)
3.923
(805)
(1.942)
8.710
(3.481)
5.229
5.229
(837)
4.392
(813)
(1.994)
8.924
(3.481)
5.443
5.443
(871)
4.572
(821)
(2.047)
9.146
(3.481)
5.665
5.665
(906)
4.759
(829)
(2.101)
9.376
(3.481)
5.895
5.895
(943)
4.952
(837)
(2.157)
1.345
(3.481)
(2.136)
(2.136)
(2.136)
49,5%
35,6%
17,0%
48,2%
37,2%
20,5%
52,3%
40,8%
23,5%
50,4%
38,3%
20,4%
51,7%
39,8%
22,6%
51,7%
39,7%
22,8%
51,7%
39,6%
22,9%
52,3%
39,8%
22,9%
52,3%
39,8%
23,2%
52,4%
39,8%
23,5%
52,6%
40,0%
24,0%
52,8%
40,2%
24,5%
53,1%
40,4%
25,0%
53,3%
40,6%
25,5%
26,5%
8,2%
(13,0)%
71
2015
Plan
3,703
979
3,392
7,366
15,440
2016
Plan
5,755
4,117
9,679
19,551
2017
Plan
5,630
4,031
9,940
19,602
2018
Plan
5,523
3,898
10,209
19,629
2019
Plan
5,972
4,003
10,484
20,459
2020
Plan
5,885
4,111
10,767
20,763
2021
Plan
5,811
4,222
11,058
21,091
2022
Plan
5,751
4,155
11,356
21,262
2023
Plan
5,704
4,267
11,716
21,688
2024
Plan
5,663
4,382
12,033
22,078
2025
Plan
5,669
4,501
12,357
22,527
2026
Plan
5,669
4,622
12,691
22,982
2027
Plan
5,669
4,747
13,034
23,449
2028
Plan
5,669
4,875
13,386
23,929
2029
Plan
5,621
5,496
5,229
16,346
(9,057)
(217)
(122)
(147)
(711)
(1,259)
(11,512)
3,928
(3,360)
569
(11,220)
(231)
(157)
(197)
(736)
(1,566)
(14,106)
5,445
(4,416)
1,029
(9,207)
(237)
(161)
(175)
(743)
(1,581)
(12,105)
7,497
(3,886)
(102)
3,509
(9,243)
(244)
(166)
(178)
(751)
(1,621)
(12,202)
7,427
(3,357)
(107)
3,963
(9,382)
(250)
(170)
(182)
(758)
(1,664)
(12,407)
8,052
(2,838)
(235)
4,979
(9,523)
(257)
(175)
(187)
(766)
(1,708)
(12,616)
8,147
(2,319)
(354)
5,474
(9,666)
(264)
(180)
(192)
(773)
(1,754)
(12,829)
8,262
(1,800)
(455)
6,008
(9,384)
(271)
(184)
(191)
(781)
(1,794)
(12,607)
8,656
(1,293)
(531)
6,831
(9,525)
(278)
(189)
(196)
(789)
(1,842)
(12,820)
8,867
(823)
(622)
7,422
(9,668)
(286)
(195)
(201)
(797)
(1,891)
(13,038)
9,040
(353)
(722)
7,965
(9,813)
(294)
(200)
(207)
(805)
(1,942)
(13,260)
9,267
(814)
8,453
(9,960)
(302)
(205)
(212)
(813)
(1,994)
(13,486)
9,496
(862)
8,634
(10,110)
(310)
(211)
(218)
(821)
(2,047)
(13,716)
9,733
(898)
8,836
(10,261)
(318)
(216)
(224)
(829)
(2,101)
(13,950)
9,979
(934)
9,045
(11,481)
(327)
(222)
(230)
(837)
(2,157)
(15,254)
1,092
(236)
857
(1,600)
(1,600)
(1,031)
1,029
3,509
3,963
4,979
5,474
6,008
6,831
7,422
7,965
8,453
8,634
8,836
9,045
857
(67)
(7,823)
(7,890)
162
(7,823)
(7,661)
(8)
(7,311)
(7,318)
(8)
(7,311)
(7,319)
(9)
(7,311)
(7,319)
(9)
(7,151)
(7,159)
(9)
(6,671)
(6,679)
(9)
(6,671)
(6,680)
(9)
(5,003)
(5,012)
(9)
(9)
(6,861)
(4,152)
(3,355)
(2,339)
(1,845)
(1,152)
152
(8,149) (12,300) (15,656) (17,995) (19,841) (20,992) (20,840)
743
(20,097)
2,953
(17,144)
8,443
(8,701)
VAT
Bank loan repayments
Shareholder loans repaiments
Net financing cash inflow/(outflow)
Total net cash inflow/(outflow)
181
181
(850)
(1,288)
(10)
(23,000)
(23,010)
(10)
(10)
(10)
(10)
(78)
(78)
(14,376)
8,826
(23,077) (14,251)
9,035
(5,216)
778
(4,437)
72
2015
Plan
4,110
(1,600)
(1,600)
2016
Plan
5,378
-
2017
Plan
7,557
-
2018
Plan
7,312
-
2019
Plan
7,809
-
2020
Plan
7,784
-
2021
Plan
7,799
-
2022
Plan
8,116
-
2023
Plan
8,236
-
2024
Plan
8,309
-
2025
Plan
8,443
-
2026
Plan
8,624
-
2027
Plan
8,826
-
2028
Plan
9,035
-
2029
Plan
778
-
2,510
5,378
7,557
7,312
7,809
7,784
7,799
8,116
8,236
8,309
8,443
8,624
8,826
9,035
778
(3,360)
(3,360)
(4,416)
(6,671)
(640)
(512)
(12,239)
(3,886)
(6,671)
(640)
(512)
(11,709)
(3,357)
(6,671)
(640)
(10,667)
(2,838)
(6,671)
(640)
(10,148)
(2,319)
(6,671)
(640)
(9,629)
(1,800)
(6,671)
(480)
(8,950)
(1,293)
(6,671)
(7,963)
(823)
(6,671)
(7,493)
(353)
(5,003)
(5,356)
(850)
(6,861)
(4,152)
(3,355)
(2,339)
(1,845)
(1,152)
152
743
2,953
8,443
8,624
8,826
9,035
778
(6,861)
(4,152)
(3,355)
(2,339)
(1,845)
(1,152)
152
(8,149) (12,300) (15,656) (17,995) (19,841) (20,992) (20,840)
743
(20,097)
2,953
(17,144)
8,443
(8,701)
(14,376)
8,826
(23,077) (14,251)
9,035
(5,216)
778
(4,437)
(850)
(1,288)
(23,000)
(23,000)
73
Sensitivity analysis
Heat scenario
+/-0%
+5%
GC price
-7,592
29.13
7,592
Power price
-2,939
34.00
2,939
Heat price
-3,969
Biomass price
-8
6.669
22.16
8.89
77.00
+/-0%
29.13
-6,697
-3,312 22.16
-7
-6.669
5.744
6,697
34.00
-2,503
3,969
+5%
8.89
77.00
2,503
3,312
-5.744
74
EBITDA kEUR
Total efficiency
70.0%
avg
10.558
9,770
67.6%
63.6%
4,636
5,831
Power
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Power for sale
Internal power
Heat demand
Dryer
Cooler
Fuel used
Comments
In this scenario the operation is driven by
power production, heat being a by-product
The excess heat is lost at the cooler in all
months except February when heat demand
requires operation with all steam boilers
The stock is built from March through the heat
used at the dryer. In order to reduce the peak
amount of biomass stock before the winter
season the operation of the dryer is reduced
gradually during the winter period
Target
Comments
The requirement for total efficiency is not fully
met; the ratio of 3rd GC awarded for the
produced power varies from a maximum of
2.97 in 2015 to 2.86 in 2028
The reduction of the green certificates
awarded for each MWh power notified to the
system is offset by the increased power
production
This scenario will have the highest power
production, the highest specific power
production, and the highest stock of all
scenarios
Heat driven
business case
Power driven
business case
Comments
This scenario will generate the highest
EBITDA of all analyzed scenarios with an
average of 10,559 kEUR
In order to reduce the build up of the stock the
dryer is used less and less each year
therefore total efficiency of the plant
decreases
This scenario has the highest operational risk,
the plant runs at full capacity and the error
margin is slim
75
33,7
34,7
35,6
36,6
37,5
38,6
39,6
40,7
41,8
42,9
44,1
45,2
46,5
47,7
49,0
154.931 179.685 179.685 179.685 179.685 179.685 179.685 179.685 179.685 179.685 179.685 179.685 179.685 179.685 113.002
5.229
6.228
6.396
6.569
6.746
6.928
7.115
7.307
7.505
7.707
7.915
8.129
8.349
8.574
5.538
Green certificates
Price (/GC)
Volume (GC)
No. GCs
Revenue
29,1
29,9
30,7
31,6
32,4
33,3
34,2
35,1
36,0
37,0
38,0
39,0
40,1
41,2
42,3
410.038 528.862 528.040 525.379 516.251 517.433 516.530 514.922 513.524 511.868 511.868 511.868 511.868 511.868 203.909
2,97
2,97
2,95
2,90
2,91
2,90
2,89
2,89
2,88
2,87
2,87
2,86
2,86
2,86
3,00
11.944
15.822
16.224
16.578
16.729
17.221
17.655
18.075
18.512
18.951
19.463
19.988
20.528
21.082
8.625
Heating energy
Price (/MWh)
Volume (MWh)
Revenue
22,2
22,2
22,2
22,2
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
221.550 260.534 254.790 249.830 245.528 241.845 238.751 236.219 234.231 232.496 232.496 232.496 232.496 232.496 230.786
4.911
5.775
5.647
5.537
5.986
5.897
5.821
5.759
5.711
5.669
5.669
5.669
5.669
5.669
5.627
Biomass consumption
Price (/dry tons)
Volume (dry tons)
Biomass costs
77,0
78,2
79,3
80,5
81,7
83,0
84,2
85,5
86,7
88,0
89,4
90,7
92,1
93,4
94,8
171.958 195.841 195.841 195.841 195.841 195.841 195.841 195.841 195.841 195.841 195.841 195.841 195.841 195.841 121.052
(13.241) (15.306) (15.536) (15.769) (16.005) (16.245) (16.489) (16.736) (16.987) (17.242) (17.501) (17.763) (18.030) (18.300) (11.481)
Revenue
Cost of materials
Purchased services
Gross margin
Other operating revenue
Personnel expenses
Other operating expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Financial result
Profit before tax
Income taxes
Net income
KPIs
Gross margin (in %)
EBITDA margin (in %)
EBIT margin (in %)
2015
Plan
2016
Plan
2017
Plan
2018
Plan
2019
Plan
2020
Plan
2021
Plan
2022
Plan
2023
Plan
2024
Plan
2025
Plan
2026
Plan
2027
Plan
2028
Plan
2029
Plan
22.084
(13.241)
(378)
8.465
27.824
(15.306)
(388)
12.130
28.267
(15.536)
(399)
12.333
28.684
(15.769)
(409)
12.506
29.462
(16.005)
(421)
13.036
30.045
(16.245)
(432)
13.368
30.591
(16.489)
(444)
13.659
31.142
(16.736)
(456)
13.950
31.728
(16.987)
(468)
14.273
32.327
(17.242)
(480)
14.604
33.047
(17.501)
(493)
15.053
33.786
(17.763)
(507)
15.516
34.545
(18.030)
(520)
15.995
35.325
(18.300)
(534)
16.490
19.790
(11.481)
(549)
7.760
(700)
(2.050)
5.831
(3.481)
2.350
(4.417)
(2.068)
(2.068)
(736)
(1.624)
9.770
(3.481)
6.289
(4.416)
1.873
(300)
1.573
(743)
(1.667)
9.923
(3.481)
6.441
(3.886)
2.555
(409)
2.146
(751)
(1.711)
10.044
(3.481)
6.563
(3.357)
3.206
(513)
2.693
(758)
(1.757)
10.521
(3.481)
7.040
(2.838)
4.202
(672)
3.530
(766)
(1.804)
10.798
(3.481)
7.317
(2.319)
4.999
(800)
4.199
(773)
(1.852)
11.033
(3.481)
7.552
(1.800)
5.752
(920)
4.832
(781)
(1.902)
11.267
(3.481)
7.786
(1.293)
6.493
(1.039)
5.454
(789)
(1.953)
11.531
(3.481)
8.050
(823)
7.228
(1.156)
6.071
(797)
(2.005)
11.803
(3.481)
8.322
(353)
7.969
(1.275)
6.694
(805)
(2.058)
12.189
(3.481)
8.708
8.708
(1.393)
7.315
(813)
(2.113)
12.590
(3.481)
9.108
9.108
(1.457)
7.651
(821)
(2.170)
13.004
(3.481)
9.523
9.523
(1.524)
7.999
(829)
(2.228)
13.433
(3.481)
9.952
9.952
(1.592)
8.360
(837)
(2.287)
4.636
(3.481)
1.154
1.154
(185)
970
38,3%
26,4%
10,6%
43,6%
35,1%
22,6%
43,6%
35,1%
22,8%
43,6%
35,0%
22,9%
44,2%
35,7%
23,9%
44,5%
35,9%
24,4%
44,6%
36,1%
24,7%
44,8%
36,2%
25,0%
45,0%
36,3%
25,4%
45,2%
36,5%
25,7%
45,5%
36,9%
26,4%
45,9%
37,3%
27,0%
46,3%
37,6%
27,6%
46,7%
38,0%
28,2%
39,2%
23,4%
5,8%
76
2015
Plan
3,703
979
4,902
10,337
19,922
2016
Plan
5,755
6,211
15,629
27,595
2017
Plan
5,630
6,378
16,051
28,060
2018
Plan
5,523
6,550
16,484
28,558
2019
Plan
5,972
6,727
17,413
30,113
2020
Plan
5,885
6,909
17,883
30,677
2021
Plan
5,811
7,095
18,366
31,273
2022
Plan
5,751
7,287
18,862
31,900
2023
Plan
5,704
7,484
19,467
32,655
2024
Plan
5,663
7,686
19,993
33,341
2025
Plan
5,669
7,893
20,532
34,094
2026
Plan
5,669
8,106
21,087
34,862
2027
Plan
5,669
8,325
21,656
35,650
2028
Plan
5,669
8,550
22,241
36,459
2029
Plan
5,621
5,776
8,625
20,022
(12,884)
(217)
(122)
(185)
(711)
(1,298)
(15,416)
4,505
(3,360)
1,146
(16,088)
(231)
(157)
(255)
(736)
(1,624)
(19,091)
8,504
(4,416)
(225)
3,863
(15,536)
(237)
(161)
(262)
(743)
(1,667)
(18,606)
9,454
(3,886)
(382)
5,186
(15,769)
(244)
(166)
(268)
(751)
(1,711)
(18,909)
9,649
(3,357)
(487)
5,805
(16,005)
(250)
(170)
(276)
(758)
(1,757)
(19,217)
10,896
(2,838)
(632)
7,426
(16,245)
(257)
(175)
(283)
(766)
(1,804)
(19,530)
11,147
(2,319)
(768)
8,060
(16,489)
(264)
(180)
(291)
(773)
(1,852)
(19,849)
11,424
(1,800)
(890)
8,734
(16,736)
(271)
(184)
(299)
(781)
(1,902)
(20,173)
11,727
(1,293)
(1,009)
9,425
(16,987)
(278)
(189)
(307)
(789)
(1,953)
(20,503)
12,152
(823)
(1,127)
10,202
(17,242)
(286)
(195)
(315)
(797)
(2,005)
(20,839)
12,502
(353)
(1,245)
10,904
(17,501)
(294)
(200)
(323)
(805)
(2,058)
(21,181)
12,914
(1,364)
11,550
(17,763)
(302)
(205)
(332)
(813)
(2,113)
(21,528)
13,333
(1,441)
11,892
(18,030)
(310)
(211)
(341)
(821)
(2,170)
(21,882)
13,768
(1,507)
12,261
(18,300)
(318)
(216)
(350)
(829)
(2,228)
(22,242)
14,217
(1,575)
12,642
(11,481)
(327)
(222)
(360)
(837)
(2,287)
(15,514)
4,508
(537)
3,972
(1,600)
(1,600)
(454)
3,863
5,186
5,805
7,426
8,060
8,734
9,425
10,202
10,904
11,550
11,892
12,261
12,642
3,972
(15)
(15)
267
(7,823)
(7,556)
168
(7,823)
(7,655)
46
(7,311)
(7,264)
9
(7,311)
(7,302)
9
(7,311)
(7,301)
(11)
(7,151)
(7,162)
(16)
(6,671)
(6,687)
(21)
(6,671)
(6,691)
(24)
(5,003)
(5,027)
446
446
1,071
1,071
(470)
288
(3,692)
(3,404)
(2,470)
(5,874)
(1,459)
(7,333)
124
(7,209)
759
(6,450)
1,572
(4,878)
2,738
(2,139)
3,511
1,371
5,877
7,248
13,089
32,982
5,043
38,024
(26)
(26)
11,524
18,773
(24)
(23,000)
(23,024)
(11,132)
7,641
(8)
(8)
12,253
19,893
The Power driven scenario show annual cash flow shortages at the
beginning of the repayment period but would generate positive cash flows
starting from FY 2019 (additional working capital funding required, but
higher operational risks))
77
2015
Plan
4,490
(1,600)
(1,600)
2016
Plan
8,547
-
2017
Plan
9,240
-
2018
Plan
9,208
-
2019
Plan
10,273
-
2020
Plan
10,388
-
2021
Plan
10,522
-
2022
Plan
10,702
-
2023
Plan
11,004
-
2024
Plan
11,233
-
2025
Plan
11,524
-
2026
Plan
11,868
-
2027
Plan
12,253
-
2028
Plan
13,089
-
2029
Plan
5,043
-
2,890
8,547
9,240
9,208
10,273
10,388
10,522
10,702
11,004
11,233
11,524
11,868
12,253
13,089
5,043
(3,360)
(3,360)
(4,416)
(6,671)
(640)
(512)
(12,239)
(3,886)
(6,671)
(640)
(512)
(11,709)
(3,357)
(6,671)
(640)
(10,667)
(2,838)
(6,671)
(640)
(10,148)
(2,319)
(6,671)
(640)
(9,629)
(1,800)
(6,671)
(480)
(8,950)
(1,293)
(6,671)
(7,963)
(823)
(6,671)
(7,493)
(353)
(5,003)
(5,356)
(470)
(3,692)
(2,470)
(1,459)
11,868
12,253
13,089
5,043
(470)
288
(3,692)
(3,404)
(2,470)
(5,874)
(1,459)
(7,333)
124
759
1,572
2,738
3,511
5,877
11,524
(23,000)
(23,000)
124
(7,209)
759
(6,450)
1,572
(4,878)
2,738
(2,139)
3,511
1,371
5,877
7,248
11,524
18,773
(11,132)
7,641
12,253
19,893
13,089
32,982
5,043
38,024
78
Sensitivity analysis
Power scenario
GC price
+/-0%
29.13
-12,303
Power price
-4,986 34.00
Heat price
-13
11.466
-5%
12,303
4,986
22.16
-3,969
Biomass price
+5%
3,969
+/-0%
-10,884
29.13
10,884
-4,196
34.00
4,196
22.16
-3,266
8.89 13
77.00
-11
-11.466
9.721
1) Prices at the moment are set on the minimum; price adjustments are very limited
Source: Management information; GCI analysis
+5%
8.89
77.00
3,266
11
-9.721
79
Total efficiency
EBITDA kEUR
avg
10.023
73.2%
70.0%
9,162
67.1%
Balanced
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Power for sale
Internal power
Heat demand
Dryer
Cooler
Fuel used
Comments
In this scenario the operation is performed
taking into account both the heat demand and
the power production to enhance the
profitability of the company and lower the
operational risk
Excess heat is lost at the cooler in all months
except February when the heat demand
requires operation with all steam boilers
The stock is built from March on through the
heat used at the dryer
This ensures the operation with a biomass
water content of 30% at the boilers
Source: Management information; GCI analysis
Target
Comments
The target total efficiency for reaching high
efficiency 3rd GCs is met in the first years of
operation
There is balance between the power produced
and the loss of GCs
The number of GCs awarded per MWh
notified will decrease from 3 GC in the first
years (until 2018) to 2.93 in 2028
5,448
Heat driven
business case
4,770
Balanced
business case
Comments
This scenario will generate a higher EBITDA
than the heat driven scenario with an average
of 10,023 kEUR
In order to reduce the build up of the stock the
dryer is used less and less each year
therefore total efficiency of the plant
decreases
The balanced scenario is also the designed
scenario for operation
80
33,8
34,7
35,6
36,5
37,5
38,5
39,6
40,6
41,7
42,9
44,0
45,2
46,4
47,7
49,0
134.677 159.431 159.431 159.431 159.431 159.431 159.431 159.431 159.431 159.431 159.431 159.431 159.431 159.431 113.002
4.551
5.526
5.674
5.827
5.984
6.145
6.311
6.481
6.655
6.835
7.019
7.208
7.402
7.602
5.533
Green certificates
Price (/GC)
Volume (GC)
No. GCs
Revenue
29,1
29,9
30,7
31,6
32,4
33,3
34,2
35,1
36,0
37,0
38,0
39,0
40,1
41,2
42,3
361.007 473.512 473.512 473.512 473.512 471.788 469.152 467.717 466.450 465.528 465.528 465.528 465.528 465.528 207.201
3,00
3,00
3,00
3,00
2,99
2,97
2,96
2,96
2,95
2,94
2,94
2,93
2,93
2,93
3,00
10.516
14.166
14.548
14.941
15.344
15.701
16.035
16.418
16.815
17.235
17.701
18.179
18.669
19.173
8.764
Heating energy
Price (/MWh)
Volume (MWh)
Revenue
22,2
22,2
22,2
22,2
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
24,4
221.550 260.534 254.790 249.830 245.528 241.845 238.751 236.219 234.231 232.496 232.496 232.496 232.496 232.496 230.786
4.911
5.775
5.647
5.537
5.986
5.897
5.821
5.759
5.711
5.669
5.669
5.669
5.669
5.669
5.627
Biomass consumption
Price (/dry tons)
Volume (dry tons)
Biomass costs
77,0
78,2
79,3
80,5
81,7
83,0
84,2
85,5
86,7
88,0
89,4
90,7
92,1
93,4
94,8
149.562 173.445 173.445 173.445 173.445 173.445 173.445 173.445 173.445 173.445 173.445 173.445 173.445 173.445 121.052
(11.516) (13.556) (13.759) (13.965) (14.175) (14.387) (14.603) (14.822) (15.045) (15.270) (15.499) (15.732) (15.968) (16.207) (11.481)
Revenue
Cost of materials
Purchased services
Gross margin
Other operating revenue
Personnel expenses
Other operating expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Financial result
Profit before tax
Income taxes
Net income
KPIs
Gross margin (in %)
EBITDA margin (in %)
EBIT margin (in %)
2015
Plan
2016
Plan
2017
Plan
2018
Plan
2019
Plan
2020
Plan
2021
Plan
2022
Plan
2023
Plan
2024
Plan
2025
Plan
2026
Plan
2027
Plan
2028
Plan
2029
Plan
19.978
(11.516)
(378)
8.083
25.466
(13.556)
(388)
11.522
25.870
(13.759)
(399)
11.712
26.306
(13.965)
(409)
11.931
27.315
(14.175)
(421)
12.720
27.743
(14.387)
(432)
12.924
28.167
(14.603)
(444)
13.120
28.658
(14.822)
(456)
13.380
29.182
(15.045)
(468)
13.669
29.739
(15.270)
(480)
13.988
30.388
(15.499)
(493)
14.395
31.055
(15.732)
(507)
14.817
31.740
(15.968)
(520)
15.252
32.444
(16.207)
(534)
15.702
19.924
(11.481)
(549)
7.894
(700)
(2.050)
5.448
(3.481)
1.967
(4.488)
(2.521)
(2.521)
(736)
(1.624)
9.162
(3.481)
5.681
(4.416)
1.265
(202)
1.063
(743)
(1.667)
9.302
(3.481)
5.821
(3.886)
1.935
(310)
1.625
(751)
(1.711)
9.469
(3.481)
5.988
(3.357)
2.631
(421)
2.210
(758)
(1.757)
10.204
(3.481)
6.723
(2.838)
3.885
(622)
3.264
(766)
(1.804)
10.354
(3.481)
6.873
(2.319)
4.554
(729)
3.826
(773)
(1.852)
10.495
(3.481)
7.013
(1.800)
5.214
(834)
4.380
(781)
(1.902)
10.697
(3.481)
7.216
(1.293)
5.923
(948)
4.976
(789)
(1.953)
10.928
(3.481)
7.447
(823)
6.624
(1.060)
5.564
(797)
(2.005)
11.186
(3.481)
7.705
(353)
7.352
(1.176)
6.176
(805)
(2.058)
11.532
(3.481)
8.051
8.051
(1.288)
6.763
(813)
(2.113)
11.890
(3.481)
8.409
8.409
(1.345)
7.064
(821)
(2.170)
12.261
(3.481)
8.780
8.780
(1.405)
7.375
(829)
(2.228)
12.645
(3.481)
9.164
9.164
(1.466)
7.697
(837)
(2.287)
4.770
(3.481)
1.289
1.289
(206)
1.083
40,5%
27,3%
9,8%
45,2%
36,0%
22,3%
45,3%
36,0%
22,5%
45,4%
36,0%
22,8%
46,6%
37,4%
24,6%
46,6%
37,3%
24,8%
46,6%
37,3%
24,9%
46,7%
37,3%
25,2%
46,8%
37,4%
25,5%
47,0%
37,6%
25,9%
47,4%
37,9%
26,5%
47,7%
38,3%
27,1%
48,1%
38,6%
27,7%
48,4%
39,0%
28,2%
39,6%
23,9%
6,5%
81
Balanced scenario
Pro-forma cash flow statement
Year ended 31.12.
'000
Cash-in from Termica
Cash-in from sale of heat (New Termica
Cash-in from sale of Electric energy
Cash-in from the sale of Green Certificates
Total Cash-in excl. VAT
Raw materials
Fuel and lubricant supplies
Energy, Fuel, Gas
Ash disposal
Personnel
Other operating expenses
Total cash out, direct prod. costs, excl. VAT
Total cash out before interest and corp. tax
Interest paid banks (incl. OeKB)
Interest paid Shareholders
Corporate tax
Net operating cash inflow/(outflow)
Fixed assets suppliers
General overhaul
Net investing cash inflow/(outflow)
Free cash flow
VAT
Bank loan repayments
Shareholder loans repaiments
Net financing cash inflow/(outflow)
Total net cash inflow/(outflow)
aggregated cash flow
2015
Plan
3,703
979
4,222
9,478
18,383
2016
Plan
4,911
5,509
13,663
24,083
2017
Plan
5,775
5,657
14,217
25,648
2018
Plan
5,647
5,809
14,600
26,057
2019
Plan
5,537
5,965
15,285
26,788
2020
Plan
5,986
6,126
15,698
27,810
2021
Plan
5,897
6,291
16,121
28,309
2022
Plan
5,821
6,460
16,557
28,838
2023
Plan
5,759
6,635
17,088
29,482
2024
Plan
5,711
6,813
17,549
30,073
2025
Plan
5,669
6,997
18,023
30,688
2026
Plan
5,669
7,185
18,509
31,363
2027
Plan
5,669
7,379
19,009
32,057
2028
Plan
5,669
7,578
19,522
32,769
2029
Plan
5,669
5,771
8,764
20,204
(11,159)
(217)
(122)
(185)
(711)
(1,298)
(13,692)
4,691
(3,360)
1,331
(14,337)
(231)
(157)
(255)
(736)
(1,624)
(17,340)
6,743
(4,416)
(152)
2,175
(13,759)
(237)
(161)
(262)
(743)
(1,667)
(16,829)
8,818
(3,886)
(283)
4,649
(13,965)
(244)
(166)
(268)
(751)
(1,711)
(17,105)
8,951
(3,357)
(393)
5,202
(14,175)
(250)
(170)
(276)
(758)
(1,757)
(17,386)
9,401
(2,838)
(571)
5,992
(14,387)
(257)
(175)
(283)
(766)
(1,804)
(17,672)
10,138
(2,319)
(702)
7,117
(14,603)
(264)
(180)
(291)
(773)
(1,852)
(17,963)
10,346
(1,800)
(808)
7,738
(14,822)
(271)
(184)
(299)
(781)
(1,902)
(18,259)
10,579
(1,293)
(919)
8,367
(15,045)
(278)
(189)
(307)
(789)
(1,953)
(18,561)
10,921
(823)
(1,032)
9,066
(15,270)
(286)
(195)
(315)
(797)
(2,005)
(18,867)
11,206
(353)
(1,147)
9,706
(15,499)
(294)
(200)
(323)
(805)
(2,058)
(19,179)
11,509
(1,260)
10,249
(15,732)
(302)
(205)
(332)
(813)
(2,113)
(19,497)
11,866
(1,331)
10,535
(15,968)
(310)
(211)
(341)
(821)
(2,170)
(19,820)
12,236
(1,390)
10,847
(16,207)
(318)
(216)
(350)
(829)
(2,228)
(20,149)
12,620
(1,451)
11,169
(11,481)
(327)
(222)
(360)
(837)
(2,287)
(15,514)
4,690
(521)
4,169
(1,600)
(1,600)
(269)
2,175
4,649
5,202
5,992
7,117
7,738
8,367
9,066
9,706
10,249
10,535
10,847
11,169
4,169
(15)
(15)
14
(7,823)
(7,809)
(12)
(7,823)
(7,835)
(13)
(7,311)
(7,323)
(13)
(7,311)
(7,323)
(13)
(7,311)
(7,324)
(13)
(7,151)
(7,164)
(14)
(6,671)
(6,684)
(14)
(6,671)
(6,684)
(14)
(5,003)
(5,017)
(284)
(616)
(5,634)
(6,250)
(3,186)
(2,122)
(1,331)
(207)
574
(9,436) (11,557) (12,889) (13,095) (12,521)
1,683
(10,838)
2,382
(8,456)
4,689
(3,767)
(14)
(14)
10,234
6,467
(15)
(23,000)
(23,015)
(12,479)
(6,013)
(15)
(15)
10,832
4,819
(15)
(15)
11,154
15,973
258
258
4,427
20,399
82
Balanced scenario
Pro-forma CFADS calculation
Year ended 31.12.
'000
Operating cash flow
Construction supplier
Overhaul
Cash flow from investment
CFADS
Interest paid banks (incl. OeKB)
Repayment - CAPEX facility A
Repayment - CAPEX facility B
Repayment - VAT Bridge loan
Bank debt service
Cash flow after bank debt service
Interest payments shareholders
Repayment shareholder loans
Shareholder debt service
Total cash flow after debt service
aggregated cash flow
2015
Plan
4,675
(1,600)
(1,600)
2016
Plan
6,605
-
2017
Plan
8,523
-
2018
Plan
8,546
-
2019
Plan
8,817
-
2020
Plan
9,423
-
2021
Plan
9,525
-
2022
Plan
9,646
-
2023
Plan
9,875
-
2024
Plan
10,044
-
2025
Plan
10,234
-
2026
Plan
10,521
-
2027
Plan
10,832
-
2028
Plan
11,154
-
2029
Plan
4,427
-
3,075
6,605
8,523
8,546
8,817
9,423
9,525
9,646
9,875
10,044
10,234
10,521
10,832
11,154
4,427
(3,360)
(3,360)
(4,416)
(6,671)
(640)
(512)
(12,239)
(3,886)
(6,671)
(640)
(512)
(11,709)
(3,357)
(6,671)
(640)
(10,667)
(2,838)
(6,671)
(640)
(10,148)
(2,319)
(6,671)
(640)
(9,629)
(1,800)
(6,671)
(480)
(8,950)
(1,293)
(6,671)
(7,963)
(823)
(6,671)
(7,493)
(353)
(5,003)
(5,356)
(284)
(5,634)
(3,186)
(2,122)
(1,331)
(207)
574
1,683
2,382
4,689
10,234
10,521
10,832
11,154
4,427
(23,000)
(23,000)
(3,186)
(2,122)
(1,331)
(207)
574
(9,436) (11,557) (12,889) (13,095) (12,521)
1,683
(10,838)
2,382
(8,456)
4,689
(3,767)
10,234
6,467
(12,479)
(6,013)
10,832
4,819
11,154
15,973
4,427
20,399
(284)
(616)
(5,634)
(6,250)
83
Sensitivity analysis
Balanced scenario
GC price
+/-0%
-11,137
Power price
-4,415
Heat price
Biomass price
-10
10.134
29.13
11,137
34.00
4,415
22.16
-3,969
+5%
8.89
77.00
-5%
+/-0%
-9,521
8.584
3,709
3,227
22.16
-8
-10.134
9,521
34.00
-3,227
10
+5%
29.13
-3,709
3,969
1) Prices at the moment are set on the minimum; price adjustments are
very limited
Source: Management information; GCI analysis
8.89
77.00
-8.584
84
AGENDA
Executive summary
Procurement
Green certificates
Termica & Thermical supply
Current trading and forecast
Business plan and sensitivity analysis
Assumptions
Business Plan Scenarios
Controlling & Reporting standards
85
Adrem Invest
Financial Director
(Monica Rusu, Bucharest)
Accountant
(Mihai Rusu, Suceava)
Bioenergy Suceava
Comment
Controlling function is currently with Mrs. Rusu who is situated in Bucharest at Adrem
headquarters. She is employed working for Adrem group and also employed at BS
Her responsibilities include financial management, preparation of the monthly and annual
accounts, liquidity planning and cash management, reporting (mainly to banks), etc.
At BS in Suceava there is no own controlling function installed . One accountant is responsible
for incoming and outgoing invoices and typical accounting activities
Responsible for monthly reporting is Mrs. Rusu. We understand that the reporting templates
were originally provided by HS as there was no own format in place. The controlling reports
are prepared on a monthly basis based on trial balances. The reports do not include any
Actual vs. Plan variances
Forecasts and budgets are primarily prepared in Bucharest by Mrs. Rusu. An involvement of
local Suceava management seems to be limited
The controlling and reporting is currently done in excel. Based on our analysis the reports are
not consistent in the way calculations are treated and are not easy to read and understand.
Partly there are fixed values inserted in the excel sheets followed by linked calculations. We
also identified errors (e.g. 0.4 mEUR in the controlling report for FY 2014) in course of our
analysis
To date there is no integrated forecast or budget model in place showing profit and loss
statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement. There is also no transparent (short-term)
liquidity plan for cash management purposes in place
In our opinion there is significant room for improvement!
86
87
88
KONTAKT
GCI Wien
Stadiongasse 6-8/10
A-1010 Wien
Telefon: 0043 1 512 37 55
Telefax: 0043 1 512 37 55 42
gci.vienna@gci-management.com
www.gci-management.com
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