MARKET ANALYSIS

Worldwide Mobile Phone 20152019 Forecast and Analysis

Ramon T. Llamas
William Stofega

Anthony Scarsella

IDC OPINION
The worldwide mobile phone market will reach a total of 2.0 billion units, inclusive of smartphones,
shipped in 2015, resulting in a 2.6% increase from the 1.96 billion units shipped in 2014. Driving
volumes forward will be an increasing emphasis on smartphones, further penetration into emerging
markets, downward pricing pressure, and ongoing replacements on a worldwide basis. IDC believes
that, in 2019, total mobile phone shipments will reach 2.2 billion units worldwide at a CAGR of 2.8%
from 2014 to 2019. Key trends are as follows:

Chinese OEMs will search for new markets. Looking to replicate their success in China,
upstart brands such as Xiaomi, Lenovo, and Coolpad look to replicate their success outside of
their domestic markets. Of course, Chinese incumbent OEMs such as Huawei and ZTE have
also been able to grow their share and influence outside of China. Given the growth prospects
for the Asia/Pacific region, they don't necessarily need to enter hypercompetitive markets such
as Western Europe or North America as Asia/Pacific will account for 53.8% of mobile phone
shipments in 2015. Growth in EMEA will follow next, accounting for 27.2% of all mobile phone
shipments in 2015. Having moved past North America in 2013, Latin America will extend its
lead and see its market share decline to 9.6% in 2015 and remain there throughout the
forecast period. North America, characterized mostly by replacement handset opportunities,
will see the slowest growth of all the regions and make up just 9.4% of all mobile phone
shipments in 2015.

Smartphones will account for a larger share of all mobile phone shipments. Having accounted
for the majority of all smartphone shipments in 2014 (66.3%), smartphones will occupy a larger
share in 2015, reaching 72.3% of all mobile phone shipments. By 2019, this number will reach
as high as 87.2%. However, it is important to realize that this projection is highly dependent
upon a growing middle class and stable political environment in growth market countries.
Furthermore, despite declines in smartphone ASP, the smartphone is still not affordable for
economically/politically challenged regions, making the feature phone the only option.

4G mobile phones will surpass 3G mobile phones. IDC expects that, with a CAGR of 22.8%
and volumes reaching 1.5 billion units by 2019, 4G mobile phones will move past 3G mobile
phone volumes in 2015. Meanwhile, 3G volumes will decline by a CAGR of -10.1% dipping to
447 million units in 2019. Although 4G mobile phones will dominate the market by 2019, the
question of network density, particularly in rural areas, will be the true litmus test in terms of
success. At the same time, standards organizations have already started to plan for the
deployment of 5G networks by 2020, which will require new handsets.

April 2015, IDC #255079

TABLE OF CONTENTS
P.
In This Study

Methodology

Primary Data Sources

Secondary Sources

IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker

Situation Overview

4Q14 Overview

4Q14 Vendors

2014 Overview

Future Outlook

Forecast and Assumptions

Assumptions

Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast

10

Mobile Phone Forecast by Region

11

Mobile Phone Forecast by Device Type

12

Market Context

15

Essential Guidance

17

Operating Systems and Hardware

17

Pricing

17

Value

18

Battery Life

18

Learn More

18

Related Research

18

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LIST OF TABLES
P.
1

Top 3 Assumptions for the Worldwide Mobile Phone Market, 20152019

Key Forecast Assumptions for the Worldwide Mobile Phone Market, 20152019

Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 20142019

11

Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Device Type, 20142019

13

Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 20092019: Comparison of

September 2014 and April 2015 Forecasts

15

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LIST OF FIGURES
P.
1

Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipment Share by Top 10 Vendors, 4Q13 and 4Q14

Worldwide Feature Phone Shipment Share by Top 10 Vendors, 4Q13 and 4Q14

Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share by Top 10 Vendors, 4Q13 and 4Q14

Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments, 20142019

11

Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 20142019

12

Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Device Type, 20142019

13

Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipment Share by Device Type, 20142019

14

Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments, 20092019: Comparison of September 2014 and

April 2015 Forecasts
17

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IN THIS STUDY
This IDC study presents the five-year forecast for mobile phone shipments worldwide by device
vendors. It is part of IDC's continuing research with respect to mobile phones, inclusive of
smartphones. Findings in this document are based on information gathered from primary and
secondary sources during the past three months.

Methodology
In preparing this document, which is the result of ongoing research in mobile devices, IDC conducted
extensive, structured interviews with most major device vendors. In some instances, specific issues
were reviewed with vendors in follow-up interviews. Multiple key mobile network operators were also
interviewed to assess their device needs as well as their network deployment schedules and services
marketing plans.
The information gathered through such means was supplemented with various secondary sources,
including press releases, marketing and technical literature, white papers, filings with the Securities
and Exchange Commission (SEC), quarterly conference calls, and reports published in trade and
business journals.
The information was then filtered through IDC's forecasting analysis process. This is an ongoing,
iterative process in which initial forecasts are made, analyzed, and revised through the cooperation of
IDC analysts worldwide. Worldwide and regional forecasts were evaluated and revised to reflect the
latest market information, including quarterly vendor performance and developing regional trends.

Note: All numbers in this document may not be exact due to rounding.

Primary Data Sources

IDC relies on the following primary sources for its data:

Suppliers and resellers. Analysts in IDC offices around the world are in contact quarterly and
meet regularly with mobile device system, subsystem, component, and software developers,
manufacturers, and resellers that provide ongoing information related to specific mobile device
models and brands, overall technology, and application, pricing, distribution, and market
trends.

Primary research. IDC engages in a broad spectrum of end-user surveys in consumer and
enterprise markets throughout the year, which contributes to an understanding of demand-side
issues, trends, and attitudes.

Secondary Sources
IDC also uses the following secondary sources:

Published financial data. Quarterly financial statements, 10Ks, annual reports, Dun &
Bradstreet databases, Moody's and Standard & Poor's directories, newsletters, online
database services, Web sites, and other published financial sources (including local
newspapers) were used to determine vendor shipments.

Company press releases. Corporate press releases, specification sheets, price lists, catalogs,
fax-back services, and financial disclosures provided sales-, product-, and production-related
information.

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Published trade data. Publications from trade organizations, associations, and government
agencies provided data on a variety of related markets, including component shipments,
software, related product trends, and regional exports/imports.

Press reports. Articles from the mobile device industry trade and general business press
provided information on products, vendors, technology developments, and market trends.

IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker

IDC leverages its Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, a service that tracks mobile phone and
smartphone shipments. With participation from nearly 30 analysts spread across the globe, IDC's
Mobile Phone Tracker provides accurate market-level data on mobile phones and smartphones on 70+
vendors.

SITUATION OVERVIEW

4Q14 Overview
In 4Q14, mobile phone shipments increased to 538.8 million units on a worldwide basis, up by 8.1%
from the 498.6 million units shipped in the same period in 2013. This is 3% higher than the units IDC
forecast in November 2014. The increase was primarily fueled by strong smartphone sales, which
increased share by 12% on a year-over-year basis and accounted for 70.5% share of the total mobile
phone market. In particular, strong demand for the new iPhone 6 pushed sales and the supply chain
beyond expectations. Mature markets like United States and Canada make up 90% of smartphones,
while CEMA is the least developed region with only 53% share.
Feature phone shipments hit 158.8 million units in 4Q14, declining at a faster rate than previous
quarters. Still, there were a few bright spots. Japan saw any increase in this segment because of the
demand for feature phones for the elderly and children. Microsoft (via Nokia) remains the largest
feature phone player, double the size of nearest competitor Samsung.

4Q14 Vendors
Rankings among the top mobile phone vendors saw some changes as consolidation in the market
boasted shipment volumes, while vendors such as Samsung finished out the difficult year on a lessthan-positive note. Overall, in 4Q14, Apple's introduction of the new iPhone 6 helped the company
move ahead of Microsoft to take the number 2 spot in shipments. Lenovo moved up from 8th to 4th
position on the basis of its acquisition of Motorola Mobility. By comparison, new entrant Xiaomi moved
up from 14th to 8th position on strong growth in China.
Rankings among the top feature phone vendors showed little change among the top 4 vendors, with
leadership by Microsoft (Nokia), followed by Samsung, TCL-Alcatel, and Micromax. Microsoft
continued its leadership in feature phones but declined somewhat from 26.7% in 4Q13 to 24.6% in
4Q14, with second-place Samsung matching the same rate of decline. Vendors such as Micromax and
Alcatel-TCL showed some small increases, but the overall market share rankings remained
unchanged.
Figure 1 shows market shipment share for the top 10 mobile phone vendors, inclusive of smartphones,
for 4Q13 and 4Q14.
Figure 2 shows market shipment share for the top 10 feature phone vendors for 4Q13 and 4Q14.

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Figure 3 shows market shipment share for the top 10 smartphone vendors for 4Q13 and 4Q14.

FIGURE 1
Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipment Share by Top 10 Vendors, 4Q13 and 4Q14

Source: IDC, March 2015

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FIGURE 2
Worldwide Feature Phone Shipment Share by Top 10 Vendors, 4Q13 and 4Q14

Source: IDC, March 2015

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FIGURE 3
Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share by Top 10 Vendors, 4Q13 and 4Q14

Source: IDC, March 2015

2014 Overview
In 2014, the worldwide mobile phone market reached a total shipment of 1.96 billion units, up 6.2%
from the 1.8 billion units shipped in 2013. This is 2.6% higher than the 1.91 billion units IDC forecast in
September 2014 but still matches the overall growth trajectory. IDC credits growth to a proliferation of
low-cost (sub-$125) devices within emerging markets as well as steady improvements in the overall
macroeconomy in key growth market countries such as India and China.
Feature phones, meanwhile, continued on their downward trajectory, with a total of 660 million units
shipped during 2014, down 20.3% from the 827.9 million units shipped in 2013. Conversely, in 2014,
smartphone shipments reached a total of 1.3 billion units, up 27.7% from the 1.0 billion units from a
year ago. Strong performances from Apple as well as surging growth from new entrants such as
Xiaomi and Huawei helped contribute to a strong year despite slowing growth in mature markets.

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FUTURE OUTLOOK

Forecast and Assumptions

The worldwide mobile phone market, inclusive of smartphones, will reach a total of 2.0 billion units in
2015, up 2.6% from the 1.96 billion units shipped in 2014. Driving volumes higher is a continued
emphasis on first-time users in emerging markets, ongoing replacements within mature markets, and
continued interest in smartphones worldwide. In 2019, the final year of our forecast, total mobile phone
shipments inclusive of smartphones will reach a total of 2.2 billion units worldwide at a CAGR of 2.8%
from 2014 to 2019.

Assumptions
Table 1 lists our top 3 assumptions for the worldwide mobile phone market for 20152019.
Table 2 lists our key forecast assumptions for the worldwide mobile phone market for 20152019.

Table 1
Top 3 Assumptions for the Worldwide Mobile Phone Market, 20152019

Market Force

IDC Assumption

Significance

Economy

Economic growth was

patchy in 2014, with a
strong rebound in the
United States after the
first-quarter downturn
while other regions were
mixed. Japan lost some
momentum after a sales
tax increase, while Europe
is still a mixed bag and
sanctions against Russia
have been disruptive for
the region (but mainly for
Russia). Growth continues
to cool in China, but so far,
the economy has been
steered clear of "hard
landing" scenarios. The
collapse in oil prices has
helped mitigate inflationary
pressures in emerging
markets, but deflation is
now a downside risk in
Europe. We assume that
the worldwide economy
will grow by 3% in 2015.

Like other IT
industries, the
success of the
smartphone
market is
predicated upon
the worldwide
economy.

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Changes to This
Assumption That
Could Affect Current
Forecast
Economic recovery
could take longer than
expected, or sudden
downturns could
jeopardize economic
stability.

Comments
Although the economic
growth was both up
and down in 2014, IDC
expects smartphone
shipments to increase
in 2015 as more
affordable models
enter the market at
numerous price points.

Table 1
Top 3 Assumptions for the Worldwide Mobile Phone Market, 20152019
Changes to This
Assumption That
Could Affect Current
Forecast

Market Force

IDC Assumption

Significance

Comments

Replacement
handset
opportunity

Replacement rates will

continue to vary from
region to region based on
how the end consumers
purchase their mobile
phones (i.e., financing
versus unlocked). IDC
believes that, on average,
users will still keep their
phones for 24 months.

The way
consumers
purchase their
devices will
significantly impact
the upgrade cycle
for a majority of
consumers.

Carriers and retailers

rely highly on device
financing and leasing
options on traditional
contracts and
unsubsidized pricing to
promote low up-front
cost and increased
upgrading. Many of
these plans require a
device trade-in that will
ultimately put more
refurbished models
back into the market.

The budding growth of

the refurbished phone
market could have a
negative impact on
new handset sales as
well as on innovation
heading into 2019.

Features beyond
voice

Consumers will have a

continued interest in
features beyond voice,
including social
networking, health and
fitness, Internet voice
calls, and mobile
payments.

OEMs will continue

to drive the
complete
experience on
mobile phones by
offering new
software features
and services that
will attempt offer
consumers added
value compared
with the
competition. This
type of a complete
ecosystem through
hardware and
software will be
critical to vendors
as the mobile
phone continues to
replace more and
more devices
including your PC,
digital camera, and
wallet.

As devices become
more personal, they
also become bigger
targets. Security will
be a key issue on
many new software
innovations. Along
with security comes
rules and regulations.
Changes in security
and privacy laws could
play a big role in these
features going
forward.

The ability for OEMs to

build a solid
relationships with
industry leaders for
each added feature
will be key in driving
the success of these
features the end
consumer.

Source: IDC, March 2015

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Table 2
Key Forecast Assumptions for the Worldwide Mobile Phone Market, 20152019

Market Force

IDC Assumption

Impact

Economic growth was patchy in

2014, with a strong rebound in
the United States after the firstquarter downturn, while other
regions were mixed. Japan lost
some momentum after a sales
tax increase, while Europe is
still a mixed bag and sanctions
against Russia have been
disruptive for the region (but
mainly for Russia). Growth
continues to cool in China, but
so far, the economy has been
steered clear of "hard landing"
scenarios. The collapse in oil
prices has helped mitigate
inflationary pressures in
emerging markets, but deflation
is now a downside risk in
Europe. We assume that the
worldwide economy will grow
by 3% in 2015.

High. A down economy affects

business and consumer
confidence, the availability of
credit and private investment,
and internal funding. A global
recession would cause
businesses to delay IT
upgrades and some new
projects; a rising economy does
the opposite. A crisis (perhaps
triggered by more volatility in
emerging markets) could create
a chain of events that would
drive tech spending much lower
in the near term.

Currency devaluation in
emerging markets is still a
threat to short-term stability, but
the risks have receded slightly
since 2014 and have been
partly mitigated by the collapse
in oil prices. However, a drop in
oil prices usually correlates with
a strong dollar so that the
trends will reinforce each other.
The strong dollar is having a
negative impact on the foreign
earnings of U.S. firms.

Moderate. A stable or steadily

falling currency makes it easier
for vendors to manage supply
lines and stabilizes the prices of
imports and exports. A weaker
domestic currency can boost
international firms, which report
a positive impact on foreign
earnings. A weaker domestic
currency can also, however,
raise the cost of imports. If
prices for essential imports
(e.g., oil) go up, this can flip an
economy into a negative spiral.

Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral

Certainty of
Assumption

Macroeconomics
Economy

Exchange rates

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Table 2
Key Forecast Assumptions for the Worldwide Mobile Phone Market, 20152019

Market Force

IDC Assumption

Impact

The telecom industry in its size

and utility is somewhat
insulated from sudden
economic swings, or at least it
has significant inertia. Service
provider revenue has picked up
in the past 24 months, driven
by the adoption of smartphones
and related mobile data
charges. Mobile data revenue
continued to drive growth in
2013, with overall telecom
services revenue increasing by
4%.

Moderate. The adoption of new

telecom services can drive IT
spending, such as those related
to mobile broadband and
devices. Faster network speeds
can also drive the adoption of
hardware, software, and
services.

Handset vendors will slim their

product portfolios while
focusing heavily on
smartphones that can not only
capture market share but also
drive profits.

High. Smartphone shipments

will increase to meet demand.
Furthermore, smartphones will
become increasingly available
to the mass market. Feature
phones, meanwhile, will not
disappear altogether as these
are still the primary means of
cellular communication for
many users.

Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral

Certainty of
Assumption

Mobile phone
market
Telecom

Shift toward
smartphones

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Table 2
Key Forecast Assumptions for the Worldwide Mobile Phone Market, 20152019
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral

Certainty of
Assumption

Market Force

IDC Assumption

Impact

Replacement
handset
opportunity

Replacement rates will continue

to vary from region to region
based on how end consumers
purchase their mobile phones
(i.e., financing versus
unlocked). IDC believes that,
on average, users will still keep
their phones for 24 months.

High. As innovation slows and

smartphone saturation grows,
the worldwide mobile phone
market will rely heavily on the
consistent replacement of older
handsets (through upgrading)
to keep volumes increasing on
an annual basis.

Consumers will have a

continued interest in features
beyond voice, including social
networking, health and fitness,
Internet voice calls, and mobile
payments.

High. New features and

functionalities, including social
networking, Internet voice calls,
and mobile payments, will
entice users to upgrade from
their current mobile phone.
There is no mistake that
innovation in the mobile phone
market is slowing; OEMs will
continue to resort to intuitive
software, services, and
industrial design to entice
consumers over to their brand.
Many of these incremental
changes could ultimately inhibit
future upgrades.

Features beyond
voice

Mobile phone
pricing

The prices of smartphones will

continue to decline over time,
making them increasingly
affordable for the mass market.

High. Lower prices will help

continue to drive demand in
both emerging and developed
markets.

Legend: very low, low, moderate, high, very high

Source: IDC, March 2015

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10

Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast

Figure 4 shows our worldwide mobile phone forecast for 20142019.

FIGURE 4
Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments, 20142019

Source: IDC, September 2014

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11

Mobile Phone Forecast by Region

Table 3 and Figure 5 shows our worldwide mobile phone forecast by region for 20142019.

Table 3
Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 20142019 (M)
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

20142019
CAGR (%)

North America

195.8

188.5

192.7

180.1

185.4

176.2

-2.1

Latin America

194.5

192.3

200.3

207.6

212.5

215.2

2.0

EMEA

531.7

548.0

573.7

599.6

625.6

651.0

4.1

Asia/Pacific

1,038.5

1,082.6

1,125.0

1,161.0

1,190.3

1,204.0

3.0

Total

1,960.4

2,011.3

2,091.7

2,148.2

2,213.7

2,246.3

2.8

Note: See Table 1 for top 3 assumptions and Table 2 for key forecast assumptions.
Source: IDC, March 2015

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FIGURE 5
Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 20142019

Source: IDC, March 2015

Mobile Phone Forecast by Device Type

Table 4 and Figure 6 show worldwide shipments by device type for 20142019.
Figure 7 shows worldwide shipment share by device type for 20142019.

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Table 4
Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Device Type, 20142019 (M)

Feature phones
Share (%)
Smartphones
Share (%)
Total

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

20142019
CAGR (%)

660.0

556.5

478.3

407.7

340.2

287.2

-15.3

33.7

27.7

22.9

19.0

15.4

12.8

1,300.4

1,454.8

1,613.4

1,740.6

1,873.5

1,959.1

66.3

72.3

77.1

81.0

84.6

87.2

1,960.4

2,011.3

2,091.7

2,148.2

2,213.7

2,246.3

8.5

2.8

Note: See Table 1 for top 3 assumptions and Table 2 for key forecast assumptions.
Source: IDC, March 2015

FIGURE 6
Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Device Type, 20142019

Source: IDC, March 2015

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FIGURE 7
Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipment Share by Device Type, 20142019

Source: IDC, March 2015

Feature Phones
The worldwide feature phone market will reach a total of 556.5 million units in 2015, down 15.7% from
the 660 million units shipped in 2014. The ongoing decline will largely be the result of vendors and
mobile operators transitioning their product portfolios away from feature phones and toward
smartphones. Still, IDC does not expect feature phones to disappear entirely. In 2019, the final year of
our forecast, total worldwide feature phone shipments will reach 287.2 million units at a 20142019
CAGR of -15.3%.

Smartphones
The worldwide smartphone market will reach a total of 1.5 billion units in 2015, up 11.9% from the 1.3
billion units shipped in 2014. Many of the same drivers IDC has addressed in the past will still be in
play: strong end-user demand from carriers and end users, more vendors transitioning their product
portfolios to highlight smartphones, a broad and deep selection of models for end users, and prices
that fit nearly every budget. More important will be the increased emphasis on low-cost smartphones
(sub-$150) going into emerging markets. In 2019, the final year of our forecast, total smartphone
shipments will reach 2.0 billion units worldwide, at a 20142019 CAGR of 8.5%.

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Market Context
The data in this worldwide mobile phone forecast differs from our previous forecast (see Worldwide
Mobile Phone 20142018 Forecast Update: September 2014, IDC #250673 September 2014) in the
following ways:

Worldwide basis. On a worldwide basis, changes to our mobile phone forecast have not
exceeded our internal threshold of 5%.

Regional basis. On a regional basis, only EMEA and North America showed changes that
exceeded our internal threshold of 5%. For EMEA, this is expected to happen in the outer
years of 2018. However, this does not alter the overall upward trajectory of the EMEA mobile
phone market. North America 2014 volumes were affected by overwhelming demand for the
iPhone 6.

Table 5 compares our April 2015 and September 2014 worldwide mobile phone shipment forecasts by
region.
Figure 8 compares our April 2015 and September 2014 worldwide mobile phone forecasts.

Table 5
Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 20092019: Comparison of
September 2014 and April 2015 Forecasts (M)
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

April 2015 forecast

189.6

194.5

203.0

186.7

185.8

195.8

188.5

192.7

180.1

185.4

176.2

September 2014 forecast

189.6

194.5

203.0

186.7

187.1

185.6

184.2

183.4

183.1

182.2

NA

-0.7

5.5

2.3

5.0

-1.7

1.8

NA

April 2015 forecast

128.5

173.8

207.3

196.4

196.8

194.5

192.3

200.3

207.6

212.5

215.2

September 2014 forecast

128.5

173.8

204.3

191.9

187.6

187.2

190.3

196.9

203.4

207.8

NA

1.5

2.4

4.9

3.9

1.0

1.7

2.1

2.2

NA

North America

Change from September

2014 to April 2015
forecast (%)
Latin America

Change from September

2014 to April 2015
forecast (%)

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Table 5
Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 20092019: Comparison of
September 2014 and April 2015 Forecasts (M)
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

April 2015 forecast

396.5

469.1

513.1

490.3

497.9

531.7

548.0

573.7

599.6

625.6

651.0

September 2014 forecast

396.5

469.1

513.1

490.3

490.3

515.2

535.7

554.6

572.1

589.3

NA

1.5

3.2

2.3

3.4

4.8

6.2

NA

April 2015 forecast

626.7

757.4

794.9

869.2

966.2

1,038.5

1,082.6

1,125.0

1,161.0

1,190.3

1,204.0

September 2014 forecast

626.7

757.4

794.9

869.2

962.9

1,022.0

1,080.1

1,134.3

1,193.7

1,236.6

NA

0.3

1.6

0.2

-0.8

-2.7

-3.7

NA

April 2015 forecast

1,341.3

1,594.8

1,718.4

1,742.7

1,846.6

1,960.4

2,011.3

2,091.7

2,148.2

2,213.7

2,246.3

September 2014 forecast

1,341.3

1,594.8

1,715.3

1,738.1

1,827.9

1,910.0

1,990.2

2,069.3

2,152.3

2,215.8

NA

0.2

0.3

1.0

2.6

1.1

1.1

-0.2

-0.1

NA

EMEA

Change from September

2014 to April 2015
forecast (%)
Asia/Pacific

Change from September

2014 to April 2015
forecast (%)
Worldwide

Change from September

2014 to April 2015
forecast (%)

Note: See Worldwide Mobile Phone 20142018 Forecast Update: September 2014 (IDC #250673, September 2014) for prior forecast.
Source: IDC, April 2015

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FIGURE 8
Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments, 20092019: Comparison of September 2014
and April 2015 Forecasts

Source: IDC, April 2015

ESSENTIAL GUIDANCE

Operating Systems and Hardware

Given the continuing dominance of Google's Android and, to a lesser extent, Apple's iOS, the
opportunity window for alternatives to challenge the established order is less plausible by the day.
According to IDC's 4Q14 Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, Android and iOS together
accounted for 96.3% of all smartphone shipments. Microsoft has become the 3rd Platform, and its
efforts are dependent upon a successful Windows 10 launch coupled with new premium and value-tier
smartphones. In conversations with OEMs and developers, there is growing concerns about the power
of that these Android and iOS platforms wield forcing OEMs to look at other platforms, including
Android's open source platform. Others are looking at Sailfish, Firefox, and various Linux derivatives.
For OEMs, signing a licensing agreement for Android and Google's mobile application suite cedes
design and control of their products to Mountain View, California. Furthermore, many feel that Google's
effort to create a uniform experience for end users and a stable specification for developers has
created a class of smartphones that compete primarily on price. Thus, despite the fact that Android
has allowed new entrants and affordable devices, it has also created an environment in which it can be
difficult to differentiate.

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Pricing
Much talk has been made of how low mobile phones can cost, and perhaps for good reason. Indeed,
cost is one of the primary drivers when selecting a new mobile phone. However, the market for lowcost mobile phones, including smartphones, has already forced numerous global OEMs from the
market and moved them upstream into mid-range and high-end segments. Still, IDC believes that lowcost mobile phones, particularly smartphones, will be one of the primary drivers of the market going
forward. IDC believes that, for those vendors competing in this market, cost is important but one piece
of an overall puzzle that must look at other factors, including experience, materials, local
manufacturing, and brand. Although growth in mobile phones has shifted toward entry-level devices
that favor efficient and low-cost Asian manufacturers, it is a mistake to assume that these same
manufacturers can deliver the same levels of innovation that creates an enhanced user experience. At
the end of the day, innovation and experience improvement require investment in R&D, which drives
cost but increases margin.

Value
Key to helping the OEM business grow will be a return to creating tangible value for customers as well
as creating partnerships with software developers to create differentiated product set. For instance, in
terms of display, the ability of the human eye to detect increased number of pixels was reached in
2011 when the iPhone 4 was released. At the same time, display can account for as much as 45% of
the cost of the device, thus OEMs are spending a large part of their BOM cost on something that looks
nice on a specification sheet but does not add any real value to the user experience!

Battery Life
Battery life continues to be the leading complaint among mobile phone users. Very few new
developments have occurred over the past several years. At the same time, new technological
developments are placing more demands on the battery (larger screens and 4G LTE connectivity
among others), and more demands are on the way. These should be a clear demand and opportunity
for improved battery life for mobile phones, one that will be rewarded if proven successful.

LEARN MORE

Related Research

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December 2014)

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Worldwide and U.S. Mobile Phone Installed Base 20142018 Forecast Update: October 2014
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Worldwide Mobile Phone 20142018 Forecast Update: September 2014 (IDC #250673,
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Worldwide Mobile Phone 20132017 Forecast Update: December 2013 (IDC #244635,
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Worldwide Business Use Smartphone 2014 2018 Forecast Update (IDC #244840, December
2013)

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Synopsis
This IDC study presents the five-year forecast for mobile phone shipments worldwide by device
vendors. The worldwide mobile phone market will reach a total of 2.0 billion unit shipments in 2015, up
2.6% from the 1.96 billion units shipped in 2014. Driving volumes higher are smartphones, particularly
low-cost smartphones heading for emerging markets. From there, total mobile phone shipments will
reach 2.2 billion unit shipments in 2019 at a 20142019 CAGR of 2.8%.
"Although growth in the mobile phone market is slowing, there are some bright spots to look forward
to," says Will Stofega, research manager for IDC's Mobile Phones team. "We believe that some of the
sluggishness in the market is directly correlated to a slowdown in the introduction of innovative
products. We expect a return to more innovative products in the next two years, which will help spur
interest in new devices in mature markets."

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About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory
services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications and consumer technology
markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community make factbased decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,100 IDC analysts
provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in
over 110 countries worldwide. For 50 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients
achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology
media, research, and events company.

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