Neg

Shells

1NC
The economy is strongbut can easily be reversed
Saphir 2015 (Ann; U.S. economy isn't as weak as estimates suggest, Fed paper
says; www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/18/us-usa-fed-gdpidUSKBN0O31T520150518; kdf)
The U.S. economy is probably not as weak as current estimates suggest , a paper
published Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said, potentially adding to arguments for raising

A government report late last month put first-quarter

growth at a mere 0.2 percent, far below economists' expectations and uncomfortably close to an
interest rates sooner rather than later.

outright contraction like that experienced in the first quarter of 2014. But by running a series of statistical

the paper's authors

found "a good chance that underlying economic growth so far this year was
substantially stronger than reported." A chart in the paper suggested first-quarter growth may have
corrections for the way the government accounts for seasonal variations in output,

been closer to 1.8 percent. That's still below the economy's potential but not dramatically so. A stronger economy

San
Francisco Fed President John Williams, whose chief research economist co-authored Monday's paper,
has said he believes the economy will bounce back this quarter and may be strong
enough for the Fed to begin raising interest rates even as soon as June. The paper's
suggests a lower hurdle for the Fed to raise interest rates that have been near zero since December 2008.

conclusions are at odds with the findings published last week by economists at the Washington-based Federal
Reserve Board. They argued that the recent pattern of first-quarter economic slowdowns isn't a reflection of a
statistical fluke in the way U.S. gross domestic product is measured.

INSERT LINK
New jobs underpin current economic growth
Davidson 2015 (Paul; Rise in higher-paying jobs lighting US economy; May 11;
www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/05/10/april-job-gains-betterpaying/27008875/; kdf)
Job growth last month shifted to higher-paying positions in a sign of a broadening
labor market recovery. Professional and business services, construction and health care led the solid
223,000 job gains reported by the Labor Department on Friday. Retail and leisure and hospitality lagged. Both have

"We're seeing more

quality jobs," says Diane Swonk, chief economist of Mesirow Financial. The trend, she says, partly reflects a
widening recovery that includes a pickup in full-time positions. Professional and business services
added 62,000 jobs in April, with strong advances in computer systems design ,
management and technical consulting, and architectural and engineering services.
been engines of payroll gains through most of the U.S. employment upswing since 2010.

Economic decline causes extinction

Richard N. Haass 13, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, 4/30/13, The
World Without America, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/repairingthe-roots-of-american-power-by-richard-n--haass
The most critical threat facing the United States now and for the foreseeable
future is not a rising China, a reckless North Korea, a nuclear Iran, modern terrorism, or climate
change. Although all of these constitute potential or actual threats, the biggest challenges facing the US are its burgeoning
debt, crumbling infrastructure, second-rate primary and secondary schools, outdated immigration system, and slow
economic growth in short, the domestic foundations of American power. Readers in
Let me posit a radical idea:

other countries may be tempted to react to this judgment with a dose of schadenfreude, finding more than a little satisfaction in Americas difficulties.
Such a response should not be surprising. The US and those representing it have been guilty of hubris (the US may often be the indispensable nation, but

it would be better if others pointed this out), and examples of inconsistency between Americas practices and its principles understandably provoke
charges of hypocrisy. When America does not adhere to the principles that it preaches to others, it breeds resentment. But, like most temptations, the
urge to gloat at Americas imperfections and struggles ought to be resisted. People around the globe should be careful what they wish for.

Americas failure to deal with its internal challenges would come at a steep price .
Indeed, the rest of the worlds stake in American success is nearly as large as that of the US itself. Part of the reason is economic. The US economy still

If US growth accelerates, Americas capacity to consume

other countries goods and services will increase , thereby boosting growth around the
world. At a time when Europe is drifting and Asia is slowing , only the US (or, more broadly, North
America) has the potential to drive global economic recovery . The US remains a unique source of innovation.
accounts for about one-quarter of global output.

Most of the worlds citizens communicate with mobile devices based on technology developed in Silicon Valley; likewise, the Internet was made in
America. More recently, new technologies developed in the US greatly increase the ability to extract oil and natural gas from underground formations. This
technology is now making its way around the globe, allowing other societies to increase their energy production and decrease both their reliance on costly
imports and their carbon emissions. The US is also an invaluable source of ideas. Its world-class universities educate a significant percentage of future

the US has long been a leading example of what market economies

and democratic politics can accomplish. People and governments around the world are far
more likely to become more open if the American model is perceived to be
succeeding. Finally, the world faces many serious challenges, ranging from the need to halt the spread
of weapons of mass destruction, fight climate change, and maintain a functioning world
economic order that promotes trade and investment to regulating practices in
world leaders. More fundamentally,

cyberspace, improving global health, and preventing armed conflicts. These

problems will not simply go away or sort themselves out . While Adam Smiths invisible
hand may ensure the success of free markets, it is powerless in the world of geopolitics . Order requires
the visible hand of leadership to formulate and realize global responses to global
challenges. Dont get me wrong: None of this is meant to suggest that the US can deal effectively with the worlds problems on its own.
Unilateralism rarely works. It is not just that the US lacks the means; the very nature of contemporary global problems suggests that only collective

multilateralism is much easier to advocate than to design and

implement. Right now there is only one candidate for this role: the US. No other country
has the necessary combination of capability and outlook . This brings me back to the argument that the
US must put its house in order economically , physically, socially, and politically if it is to have the
resources needed to promote order in the world . Everyone should hope that it does: The alternative to
a world led by the US is not a world led by China, Europe, Russia, Japan, India, or any other
country, but rather a world that is not led at all . Such a world would almost certainly be characterized by
chronic crisis and conflict. That would be bad not just for Americans, but for the vast majority of the planets
responses stand a good chance of succeeding. But

inhabitants.

Drones 2NC
The plan creates uncertainty within the industry -- derails
growth
Koebler 2013 (Jason; Drone Industry: Privacy 'Distractions' Could Have Major
Economic Impacts; Mar 13; http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/03/13/droneindustry-privacy-distractions-could-have-major-economic-impacts; kdf)
A new report released by a drone industry trade group suggests that using unmanned planes
in the United States could create more than 70,000 jobs and $82 billion in economic
impact over the next few years. But the head of the organization warns that "privacy distractions"
could derail the industry. The report, released Tuesday by the Association for Unmanned Vehicle
Systems International, suggests that most of the impact will come within the first three years of commercial
integration of dronestentatively set by the Federal Aviation Administration to occur in 2015and that drones will
most commonly be used in agricultural settings and for public safety reasons. [READ: Hagel Orders Review of
'Drone Medal'] So far, at least 31 states are considering legislation that would limit the use of drones, and a bill in
Virginia that would put a two-year moratorium on drone use is waiting to be signed by governor Bob McDonnell.

Many of the bills being considered have been championed by civil liberties group s
such as the ACLU and would put severe limits on the commercial use of drones in those
states. Some proposed bills would require police to get a search warrant before
operating a drone. Most of the proposed bills, according to Michael Toscano, president and CEO of
AUVSI, would delay or diminish the positive economic impacts that the drone industry
can have in a state. "This privacy stuff is a distraction," he says. "Look how much
energy we're spending on that. It has the ability to affect things going forward."

Links

Drones
Drones are a vital component of the economy
Heverly 2015 (Robert A [Associate Professor of Law, Albany Law School]; Game
of Drones: The Uses and Potential Abuses of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in the U.S.
and Abroad: ARTICLE: THE STATE OF DRONES: STATE AUTHORITY TO REGULATE
DRONES; 8 Alb. Gov't L. Rev. 29; kdf)
Supporting Drones: Economic Incentives Domestic use of drones has been on the federal radar for some time.

Predicted to have an economic impact of over $ 82 billion between 2015 and 2025 ,
n102 with total job creation during that period estimated to be in excess of 100,000
jobs and tax revenue to the states totaling $ 635 billion , n103 states are
understandably interested in ensuring they receive a portion of the drone
economy's benefits. This shows not only in official statements from state and local leaders regarding drones
and drone development n104 and funds allocated to drone development, n105 but $=P49 also in state responses to
the Federal Aviation Administration's Test Site competition, a competition required by two different Congressional
Acts. n106 The competition sought applications from those interested in and capable of setting up drone test
ranges. n107 The legislation required that the FAA award operational status to six such ranges. n108 At the first
stage of the competition, fifty applications for test range status were received, and states and local governments
were involved as partners and supporters in a number of these applications. n109 The initial group of applicants
was reduced to twenty-five by the FAA, which ultimately awarded six sites with test range status. n110 All six sites

The number of
filed applications, including those at the initial stage, show state and local interest in ensuring
their role in the drone economy. n112 In addition, state and local governments in the $=P50 areas
are currently in operation (or, in the parlance of the FAA, all six are now "standing up"). n111

covered by the "losing" applications have stated their intent to pursue alternative paths to drone development
within their jurisdictions. n113 Other states are studying drone issues, n114 or creating task forces, n115 and

Even when regulating drones, states are careful at times

not to overlook the economic benefits of drone development , as was Utah when it noted that
committees n116 to study drones.

its law regulating drone use was not intended "to prohibit or impede the public and private research, development,

Regardless of their concerns about privacy,

surveillance and potential invasiveness of use, states are keenly aware of the
economic stakes involved in the game of drones. n118
or manufacture of unmanned aerial vehicles." n117

Link: California Economy

Drones are key to Californias economy
Weiner and Sherman 2014 (Robert and Tom; Drones spare troops, have
powerful impact; Oct 9; www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/oct/09/drones-troopsimpact/; kdf)
Southern California has been a national leader of the drone industry , ever since the San
Diego-based General Atomics pioneered the first Predator drone development more than two decades ago.

13 California drone manufacturers operate across the state , including 3D Robotics

Pentagon officials initially purchased 10
drones from General Atomics that number has now swelled to over 10,000 drones
currently under Pentagon control, according to The Washington Post, and unknown numbers in CIA
hands; a Defense News report estimates at least 80. The defense industry has been a huge
incubator of jobs in California, especially Southern California, said Assemblyman Steven Bradford, DGardena, last year. We want these well-paying, high-tech manufacturing jobs to continue
to grow here in California. Californians, whether liberal or conservative, should champion
drone programs that save American troops from having a larger footprint and having to put their lives in
Currently,

of San Diego and Datron Communication Systems of Vista.

danger in foreign territories. Drones reduce ground troops, yet they have as powerful an impact.

California key to US and global econ

Navarro, 8 Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Paul Merage School of Business, University of
California, Irvine and holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University (Peter Navarro, SFGate, 15 August 2008,
California nightmare for the global economy? http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/article/California-nightmare-for-theglobal-economy-3273234.php)//CC

Will the California budget crisis tip the United States into recession? The California
economy is certainly large enough to inflict such damage. It's the seventh-largest
economy in the world and home to close to 38 million Americans. California's budget deficit is by any
reasonable measure enormous. This budget deficit is estimated at $17.2 billion and represents more than 17
percent of the state's general fund expenditures (about $101 billion). In contrast, New York, which faces the secondworst budget gap in the nation for fiscal year 2009, has a gap of about $5 billion, which represents less than 10

California has acted more like the federal

government rather than merely one of 50 states. Indeed, unlike the federal government (or
percent of its budget. In closing its past budgetary gaps,

sovereign nations), each state is required to balance its budget each year; and no state, at least in principle, has
the authority to engage in the kind of discretionary deficit spending both the federal government and nations
around the world routinely use to stimulate their economies. In the past, a profligate California has gotten around
this balanced-budget requirement by using a technique that effectively allows the Golden State to administer its
own fiscal stimulus. In particular, California - under both Democratic and Republican governors - has simply issued

California's problem this time, however, is

that its deficit is so big, its balance sheet is so bad, and world credit markets are so tight
that issuing new bonds alone is no longer a viable option . Instead, California's politicians are
new bonds every time that it has spent far beyond its means.

inexorably being forced toward a solution that will prominently feature both a large tax increase and significant
spending cuts. Indeed, this is not a partisan matter of choosing one's poison. The budget deficit is so large that it
cannot be eliminated without raising taxes, anathema to the state's Republicans, and spending cuts, equally
unpalatable to California Democrats. Of course, the faster the state Legislature accepts this harsh reality, the faster
the deadlock can be broken. Viewed from a macroeconomic perspective, there is an even harsher reality. Increased
taxes and reduced spending will send a very nasty contractionary shock through a California economy that is

Should Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's

budgetary medicine - including firing many state employees - trigger a recession, this may well
serve as a tipping point for a national recession and, in the worst case scenario, even a
global recession. In considering these dangers, it is worth noting that California provides close to 13
percent of America's real GDP growth. In contrast, the second-largest contributor to U.S. gross
already reeling from a housing market meltdown and punishing gas prices.

domestic product is Texas, and it provides only half that stimulus. It also worth noting that California is
an important destination for both U.S. manufactured goods and world imports, particularly from Asia. Already,
California's unemployment rate is more than 6.8 percent and well above the national average of 5.7 percent. At
least some economists believe California may already be experiencing negative growth. The economy is likely to
get a lot worse before its gets better. If there is any one civics lesson to be learned from this fine mess, it is that the
state's politicians must learn to resist overspending in good times so that the state won't face bankruptcy when bad
times hit. It should be equally clear that any damn fool can issue bonds to balance a budget. However, it takes real
political courage and economic foresight to put a state budget on an even keel through fiscally conservative taxand-spend policies. At this juncture, California is nowhere close to that - and
perhaps

the world, may soon pay the Golden State's piper.

the rest of the country, and

Internal Links

Shocks Crash Econ

Any shock to the economy can cause a recession
Gula 2015 (Alan [Chief Income Analyst @ Wall St Daily]; U.S. Economy Edges
Closer to Recession; www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/05/18/u-s-economy-recession/;
kdf)
It is hard to imagine any time in history when such rampant pessimism about the economy has existed with so
little evidence of serious trouble, said a prominent economist. No, he wasnt referring to our current situation. This
statement was made in January 2008, and the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression had already started.

everyone seems to believe that the housing bubble and

ensuing recession were widely foreseen, but they simply werent. Despite all that weve
been through, economists seem to be as clueless as ever. Whats more, the next recession
isnt likely to be as bad as the last one (at least in the United States). So, if economists had a hard
In a display of revisionist history,

time spotting the Great Recession in real time, then rest assured that a garden variety recession is going to be

And we may be witnessing the start of a recession right now In

late April, we learned that preliminary U.S. real GDP growth for the first quarter of
2015 was just 0.2% lower than 82 of the 86 estimates from economists polled by Bloomberg. Interestingly,
completely unanticipated.

the Atlanta Feds GDPNow forecasting model actually nailed the number by predicting 0.1% growth. However,

information released in May indicates that growth actually contracted quarter over
quarter. Barclays Capital and JPMorgan (JPM) both lowered U.S. Q1 GDP estimates to negative 1.1% after
disappointing factory order data revisions last Thursday. Now, it even looks as if the second quarter is imperiled.
Retail sales for April were disappointing. Again, economists had expected that a decline in gasoline prices would
boost consumption, which hasnt happened. Whats truly amazing is that retail sales and food services (excluding
motor vehicles and parts dealers) contracted versus the year-ago figure. As can be seen in the chart below, retail
sales growth is actually lower than it was at any point during the recession in 2001! On Friday, we learned that
industrial production contracted in April. GDPNows forecast for the second-quarter growth is running at just +0.7%.

some components of GDP such as net exports (trade) and changes in private inventory levels
are extremely difficult to forecast, so the model isnt going to appear prophetic
every quarter. Nonetheless, its a good approximation. All of this points to a grim conclusion:
The probability of a U.S. recession is increasing. Ironically, the Federal Reserve is
supposed to be raising short-term interest rates sometime this year.
Granted,

Growth K2 Prevent Recession

Sustained growth is necessary to stave off a recession
Schweppe 2015 (Sarah; Is the US economy slipping into another recession;
May 10; www.cheatsheet.com/politics/is-the-u-s-economy-slipping-into-anotherrecession.html/?a=viewall; kdf)
While were supposed to be in a period of recovery from the Great Recession, the economy
has been lagging more than expected lately . Does this lack of growth mean were slipping back
into a recession? If we are, its not one similar to what we saw in 2008 because the unemployment rate isnt soaring

Rather growth has been stalling this year, enough to make the Federal Reserve
question whether to hike interest rates in June as it has said it wants to. Growth stalled a lot
in the winter, dropping to 0.2%, and according to the Atlanta Feds GDPNow model, its only
bumped up to 0.9% since. And the Washington Post suspects that any positive growth in the first quarter
up.

could be revised now that we know the U.S. trade deficit grew to the highest level in more than six years in March.
The gap increased 43.1% to $51.4 billion, according to the Commerce Department, exceeding the estimates of 70
economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Foreign goods, capital goods, and consumer products were purchased at

Those facts are what make economists

nervous, but the jobs growth may be keeping us from falling into a real recession.
How is this affecting jobs? Despite adding 591,000 jobs this year, the unemployment rate
remained unchanged at 5.4%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In April, the number of
record rates, while demand for petroleum dropped.

unemployed persons (8.5 million) stayed about the same as the previous month. Overall, the unemployment rate
went down by 0.8 percentage point for the month, and the number of unemployed dropped by 1.1 million for the
month.

AT: Drones

AT: Drones Inevitable

Economic growth will only happen if the industry isnt
burdened by regs
Wolfgang 2013 (Ben; Drone industry predicts explosive economic boost; Mar
12; www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/12/drone-industry-predictsexplosive-economic-boost/?page=all; kdf)
drones as spies remain matters of intense debate across the country,
but the controversial aircraft are poised to make an impact as something else: economic
engines. Private-sector drones also called unmanned aerial systems or UAVs will create more
than 70,000 jobs within three years and will pump more than $82 billion into the
U.S. economy by 2025, according to a major new study commissioned by the industrys leading
trade group. But the report, authored by aerospace specialist and former George Washington University
professor Darryl Jenkins, assumes that the White House and Congress stick to the current
schedule and have in place the necessary legal and regulatory frameworks . Current law
Drones as weapons and

calls for full drone integration into U.S. airspace by September 2015, but many key privacy questions surrounding
UAVs have yet to be answered. Theres also growing doubt that the Federal Aviation Administration can meet the
congressionally mandated timetable.

AT: Other Drones Solve

Law enforcement drones underpin the entire industry
Reid 2014 (Melanie [Associate Professor of Law, Lincoln Memorial UniversityDuncan School of Law]; GROUNDING DRONES: BIG BROTHER'S TOOL BOX NEEDS
REGULATION NOT ELIMINATION; 20 Rich. J.L. & Tech. 9; kdf)
The Pentagon cut spending on military drones from $ 4.8 billion in 2012 to $ 3.8
billion in 2013 with further reductions anticipated . n53 Initially, drones were used by the military
as a reconnaissance tool, with the D-21 drone making its first reconnaissance mission over China in 1969. n54 In
1995, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) sent drones on more than 600 reconnaissance missions in the Bosnian
conflict, and the drones also provided intelligence for NATO forces in the 1999 Kosovo air campaign by "searching
for targets" and "keeping an eye on Kosovar-Albanian refugee camps." n55 In January 2001, the CIA considered
assassinating Osama bin Laden with the Predator drone, but the Predator had only been used for reconnaissance
missions. n56 This was the first occasion that the military considered using drones as a weapon rather than as a

with significant military budget cuts looming, drone

manufacturers need to find a new market for their creations . P14 Therefore, aerospace
manufacturers are looking to create a lucrative civilian market . The chief operating officer of
reconnaissance tool. n57 Today,

a Los Angeles-based company that makes operating systems for drones, Denis Clements, remarked that the drone
industry is transitioning "from all-military on a relatively small scale to international and commercial on a large
scale." n58 The AUVSI estimates that the industry will be worth $ 82 billion and employ 100,000 people by 2025.

Law enforcement, in particular, is interested in using drones as they are typically

smaller than traditional aircraft, less likely to be detected, create less noise and
vibrations, and less expensive than aircraft and helicopters so they can afford to
purchase and use more of them. n60 Of course, the cost depends upon the size and sophistication of
n59 P15

the drone, and law enforcement need also worry about collisions and tort liability if one of their drones collides with
other aircraft or destroys personal property on the ground.

AT: Impact Exaggerated

There is consensus on the economic impact of drones
Drugan 2015 (John; Drones a source of debate-and economic impact; Feb 5;
www.uschamberfoundation.org/blog/post/drones-source-debate-and-economicimpact/42600; kdf)
At a recent hearing held by the House Science Space and Technology Committee, lawmakers and
business leaders cited studies predicting as many as 200,000 new jobs and an $82
million economic impact from this new technology. A majority of the hearing was a dialogue between
witnesses and Congress to discuss how the FAA should shape regulation to introduce them into the National
Airspace System in a manner that will best foster growth within the industry. The regulatory debate surrounding the
FAAs UAV policies will no doubt be intensified and expedited, given the recent alarming incident of a UAV drone
landing on the White House lawn. Surprisingly, despite

disagreement on the FAAs regulation,

Congress and industry experts were in complete agreement on the potentially
massive economic impact that UAV technology could have on the American
economy and the necessity to act as soon as possible. What may be even more surprising than
the impact UAV technology may have are the different sectors of American industry
that will be influenced by it.