The Disruptive Dozen by Jacques Bughin

Digitization and The
Disruptive Dozen
Jacques Bughin, MGI Council
McKinsey Global Institute
Santiago , July 2015

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited
Who is who
Jacques Bughin, Jacques_bughin@mckinsey.com, 32-477-480-230, 32-2-6454144
Jacques Bughin is a Director with McKinsey & Companys Brussels office Jacques is a core leader of the Media and Entertainment and Corporate Finance and Strategy practices. He has been a core member of
MGI, MTI and co-ed Digital Economy Initiative, a major internal and external knowledge program launched by McKinsey
Since joining the firm in 1992, he has been based in the Amsterdam, London, Montreal, New York, and Toronto offices, working mainly
on projects related to telecom, media, and high-tech He has helped clients all around the world
Background
Jacques received a masters summa cum

laude in Economics from the University of
Namur (Belgium) and University of
Pennsylvania
He holds doctoral degrees in Economics and

in Operations Research
Example of publication
1. McKinsey Global Institute co-author of

Big Data
Social technologies
Disruptive technologies
Internet matters
2. 35 McKinsey Quarterlies
He has lectured at many universities,
3. More than 50 academic research publications , e.g., in

Management Science, European Economic Review
He is also a fellow of the ECARES, a think-
4. Business interviews, e.g., in Le Monde, The Economist,

Business Week, Fortune
including Toronto, London, and Brussels
tank on economic policy in Belgium, and a

fellow of the Applied Economics of the KUL
University.
5. Multiple books of which Managing media companies, Wiley

(ed)., coauthored with Annet Aris
Agenda
1. Why and how
2. The next 12
3. What to make out of it
Why: GDP growth taking off , fuelled by tech changes

GDP per world capita
In real USD
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
50
100
Technology
advancements
150
200
250
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
Printing
press
First
steam
engine
Efficient
steam
engine
1450
1698
1769
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Mass Internal
Internet &
steel combustion
world wide web
engine
1970s
1855 1860
Today
80s
First Industrial Second Industrial Revolution

Revolution 1860s to 1920s
1760s to 1840s
SOURCE: Angus Maddison's "World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2003 AD; Projection based on Global Insight
economic data; WIPO IP Statistics
Why: Technology is the largest fuel

% contribution of technology change to world output growth
50%
ESTIMATES
Technological change is a
core engine of growth:
Technology advances
44%
accounting for a total of USD

8 trillion added value
growth in last 20 years
38%
33%
Value added is only the tip of

the iceberg- technology has
possibly redistributed 3 times
more of value among
enterprises, or USD 25
trillion
1920-1950
1940-1970
1970-2000
SOURCE: R. Solow; Hall; Wikipedia; Annals of Statistics; McKinsey estimates
1998-2012
4
Digital technology has been the key engine lately

Digital
% contribution of technology change to world output growth
50%
44%
38%
33%
25%
0%
0%
2%
1920-1950
1940-1970
1970-2000
SOURCE: R. Solow; Hall; Wikipedia; Annals of Statistics; McKinsey estimates
1998-2012
5
Why: Technology disruptive growth, 20 years ago
Early copiers
Mechanical
excavator
Traditional Retail
High-end
excavator
Large scale
retailing
Disrupted
Disruptive
Small copiers
Why: Technology disruptive growth, current decade
Web 1.0 portal
Newspapers
Personalized
social-based
shared news
Printing
Phone
makers
You as a worker
Low-cost
modular robot
designed to work
side-by-side
factory workers
Disrupted
Social media
phone
makers
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Disruptive
Advanced
materials,
e.g,
Stereolithography
Why: Hyperscale digital businesses are capturing entire

industries
Examples
2 million songs
37 million songs
included in Prime
Music
Inventory
17,000 movie
titles
Video
Books
Reach
Digital market
share worldwide
15,000 movie
titles
+/- 35 million
books worldwide
+/- 1.5 million for

each large
country (e.g., US,
India)
190 countries
150 countries
19%1
1 commerce, books for amazon, 2- music, 3 video
27%1
25,000 movie
titles
1 million books
digitized
11 countries
63%2
120 countries
36%3
41 countries
31%3
8
Why: Have you heard about

..Corning s Gorilla 3.0 glass protecting mobile screens from scratches and microbes
.Belkins WeMO, in internet of things visual interface which converts electrical devices into
programmable appliances.
.... Mcor technologies 3D which uses ordinary copier paper as a medium to create 3D objects
designed by the consumer
.Kolibree, a sensor-embedded toothbrush that sends dataas many embedded devices dodirectly
to your smartphone.
.Fujitsus PulseWallet, which uses a biometric three-dimensional reading of a single vein in her palm,
designed to facilitate mobile payments by linking the users palm print to stored credit card information.
..Ningbo Jiye Electrical Co., which offers solar-powered smartphone charging case for as little as
$15.
How: Disruptive technology defined
High rate of technology change (in

terms of cost or performance)
OR
AND
Significant increase in the rate of

technology change
Rapid technology
change
Large economic
value at stake
Economically
disruptive
technology
Potential to impact large pools of

economic value by 2025
Measurable in
economic terms by
2025
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Potential to touch the lives of billions of

people or millions of workers
Potential to impact multiple sectors
Extensive reach of technology

impact
Transformative potential impact
Potential to significantly change peoples jobs and

lives (day-to-day, health, and environment)
OR
Large portion of impact and disruption in the next 10
years
Not only economic, but societal

10
How: Predicting is hard especially the future

"We do not like their sound, and guitar
music is on the way out"
Decca, 1962
"640 k ought to be enough for
everybody",
Bill Gates, 1981
"There is absolute no reason why people
would want a PC in their home"
DEC, 1977
"Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is
ridiculous fiction"
Pierre Pachet, Professor at
University of Toulouse, 1872
"I suppose we shall soon travel by airvessels, and at length find our way to the
moon in spite of he want of atmosphere"
Lord Byron, 1882
11
How: Not a prediction, but a careful selection
Collect existing list
Screen list based on

our 4 definition criteria
Further detailed impact

on list of technologies
Hype list built up,

through various sources:
Media
Academic intelligence
Business intelligence
Reviewed by external
experts+ McKinsey
expertise
Speed of technology
diffusion
Impact (breadth & size)
Measurable in GDP
activity and more
Disruptive nature (value
chain, consumer)
Detail by industry
Taxonomy of impact
Employees
Consumers
Entrepreneurs
Governments, etc.
12
How: We relied on external advisory to cross-check our results
External advisory Board, e.g.
H. Varian, Google
E. Brynjolfsson, MIT
P. Warrior, Cisco
The Disruptive Dozen technology

deep-dive
About 10 experts per technology

Report took 3-4 months of intense
research via MGI
D. KirckPatrick, Techonomy
B. Schwartz, Brooking Institute
13
Agenda
1. Why and how

2. The
next 12
14
Technology trend lists everywhere

Top 25 Technology Predictions
By 2029, 11 petabytes of storage will be available for $100

In the next 10 years, we will see a 20-time increase in home networking speeds.
By 2013, wireless network traffic will reach 400 petabytes a month.
By the end of 2010, there will be a billion transistors per humaneach costing one ten-millionth of a cent.
The Internet will evolve to perform instantaneous communication, regardless of distance.
The first commercial quantum computer will be available by mid-2020.
By 2020, a $1,000 personal computer will have the raw processing power of a human brain.
By 2030, it will take a village of human brains to match a $1,000 computer.
By 2050 (assuming a global population of 9 billion), $1,000 worth of computing power will equal the processing power of all human brains on earth.
Today, we know 5 percent of what we will know in 50 years. In other words, in 50 years, 95 percent of what we will know will have been discovered in the past 50 years.
The worlds data will increase sixfold in each of the next two years, while corporate data will grow fiftyfold.
By 2015, Google will index approximately 775 billion pages of content.
By 2015, we will create the equivalent of 92.5 million Libraries of Congress in one year.
By 2020 worldwide, the average person will maintain 130 terabytes of personal data (today it is ~128 gigabytes).
By 2015, movie downloads and peer-to-peer file sharing will explode to 100 exabytes, equivalent to 5 million Libraries of Congress.
By 2015, video calling will be pervasive, generating 400 exabytes of datathe equivalent of 20 million Libraries of Congress.
By 2015, the phone, web, email, photos, and music will explode to generate 50 exabytes of data.
Within two years, information on the Internet will double every 11 hours.
By 2010, 35 billion devices will be connected to the Internet (nearly six devices per person on the planet).
By 2020, there will be more devices than people online.
With IPv6, there will be enough addresses for every star in the known universe to have 4.8 trillion addresses.
By 2020, universal language translation will be commonplace in every device.
In the next five years, any surface will become a display.
By 2025, teleportation at the particle level will begin to occur.
By 2030, artificial implants for the brain will take place.
15

Eight great technologies
10 Disruptive Technologies for

Business Information Management
By 2029, 11 petabytes of storage will be available for $100

In the next 10 years, we will see a 20-time increase in home networking speeds.
Big data revolution and energy-efficient computing
Media tablets and beyond
Satellites and commercial applications of space
Mobile-centric applications and interfaces
Robotics and autonomous systems
Contextual and social user experience
Life sciences, genomics and synthetic biology
Internet of Things
Today, we know 5 percent of what we will know in 50 years. In other words, in 50 years, 95 percent of what we will know will have been discovered in the past 50 years.
Regenerative medicine
App stores and marketplaces
Agri-science
Next-generation analytics
By 2015, we will create the equivalent of 92.5 million Libraries of Congress in one year.
Advanced materials and nano-technology
Big data
Energy and its storage
In-memory computing
Extreme low-energy servers
Cloud computing
16


The five most disruptive
technologies
2012 and beyond
Mediaoftablets
By 2029, 11 petabytes
storage
will be available
for $100
Theof
top
10 emerging
technologies
In the next 10 years,
we
will
see
a
20-time
increase
in home networking speeds.
for 2013
Big data revolution
and energy-efficient computing
Satellites and commercial
OnLine Electric
applications
Vehicles
of space
(OLEV)
Gesture
Mobile-centric
based interfaces:
applications
Controlling
andcomputers
interfaceswithout
touching them
Robotics and autonomous
3D printingsystems
and remote manufacturing
Augmented reality: Fusing the real and the virtual

Life sciences, genomics
and synthetic
Internet of Things
Self-healing
materials biology
Compressed air batteries: The worlds most costToday, we know 5 percent of what we will know in 50 years. In other words, in 50 years, 95 percent of what we will know will have been discovered in the past 50 years.
Energy-efficient water purification
effective
App
energy
stores
storage
and marketplaces
Agri-science Carbon dioxide (CO2) conversion
and use
Autonomous
Next-generation
electric vehicles:
analytics
The end of cars as we
By 2015, we will create the equivalent of 92.5
million Libraries of Congress in one year.
know them
Advanced materials
and nano-technology
Big data
Enhanced
nutrition to drive health at the molecular level
Ultra-cheap web devices: Five billion people with

Energy and itsstorage
Remote sensing
internet
In-memory
access
computing
Precise drug delivery through nanoscale engineering
Organic electronics and photovoltaics
Cloud computing
Fourth-generation reactors and nuclear-waste recycling
17


The five most disruptive
technologies
2012 and beyond
Mediaoftablets
By 2029, 11 petabytes
storage
will be available
for $100
Theof
top
10 emerging
technologies
we
will
see
a
20-time
increase
in home networking speeds.
for 2013
Big data revolution
By the end of 2010, there
will be a that
billion
transistors
of a cent.
Innovations
will
change per humaneach costing one ten-millionth
10 technologies
that will change
tomorrow
OnLine Electric
applications
Vehicles
of space
(OLEV)
Gesture
Mobile-centric
based interfaces:
applications
Controlling
andcomputers
interfaceswithout
The Internet will evolve
to perform instantaneous communication, regardless of distance.
the world in the next 10 years
touching them
3D printing
systems
By 2020, a $1,000 personal
computer
Electric
clotheswill have the raw processing power of a human brain. The
Internet of Things
Augmented
reality: Fusing the real and the virtual

and synthetic
Internet of Things
Self-healing
materials biology
By 2050 (assuming a global
population
of 9 billion), $1,000 worth of computing power will equal
thejust
processing
all human brains on earth.
Adaptive
cruise control
Not
Big Data,power
butbatteries:
a of
zettaflood
Compressed
air
The worlds most costToday, we know 5 percent of what we will know in 50 years. In other words, in 50 years, 95 percent of what we will know will have been discovered in the past 50 years.

effective
App
energy
stores
storage
and marketplaces
The worlds data will increase
sixfold in each of the next two years, while corporate data will grow
fiftyfold.
Better bikes
Wisdom
of the cloud
Agri-science Carbon dioxide (CO2) conversion and use
Autonomous
Next-generation
electric vehicles:
analytics
By 2015, we will create
the equivalent
of 92.5
million
of Congress in one year.
Predictive
medical
analysis
in Libraries
cars
The know
next Net
them
Advanced materials
and nano-technology
BigLibraries
data
Enhanced
By 2015, movie downloads
andmade
peer-to-peer
filefiber
sharing will explode to 100 exabytes, equivalent
toworld
5 million
of Congress.
Planes
of carbon
The
gets smaller
Ultra-cheap
web devices: Five billion people with
Energy and itsstorage
Remote sensing
internet
In-memory
access
computing
By 2015, the phone, web,
email,entertainment
photos, and music will explode to generate 50 exabytes of data.
Subway
The power of power
Precise
drug delivery through nanoscale engineering
By 2010, 35 billion devices
willlooking
be connected
planet).
Better
movies to the Internet (nearly six devices per person on
the
Tea.
Earl Grey. Hot (3D printing)
Organic
electronics and photovoltaics
Cloud computing
With IPv6, there will be
enough
addresses
addresses.
Teeth
with
sensors for every star in the known universe to have 4.8 trillion
Another
family tree (Advanced robotics and virtual avatars)
Fourth-generation
reactors and nuclear-waste recycling
In the next five years, any
surface
will become a display.
Smart
disinfectants
Yes, there's a cure for that (Medical technologies)
By 2030, artificial implants
for thefrozen
brain food
will take place.
Gourmet
Humans or Borg? (Augmented homo sapiens)
18

The Five Most Disruptive Technologies
at CES 2013
Fighting
the Power
By
2029,
11 petabytes
storage
will be available
for $100
Theof
top
10 emerging
technologies
The five most
disruptive
Robots
taking
our jobs
The DIY economy continues to rise
we
will
see
a
20-time
increase
in
home
networking
speeds.
for 2013
technologies
oftablets
2012 and beyond
Big data
revolution
Media
The
Intelligent Home
By 2013,
wireless
network traffic will reach 400 petabytes
month.
The
Internet
of machines
Aanew
education revolution
By the end of 2010, there
will be a that
billion
transistors
of a cent.
Innovations
will
10 technologies
that will change
Satelliteswilland
commercial
tomorrow
OnLine Electric
applications
Vehicles
of space
(OLEV)
Gesture
Mobile-centric
based
applications
Controlling
andcomputers
interfaceswithout
Theinterfaces:
The Internet
evolve
to perform instantaneous communication,
of distance.
the world in the next
10Interface
years of You
Flatter
organizations
Reskillingregardless
the workforce
touching them
2020,
3D printing
systems
Contextual
social user experience
Youre and
the Doctor
Byprinting
a $1,000 personal
computer
power
of a human
3D
Older workers
re-entering
thebrain.
workforce
Electric
clotheswill have the raw processing
The
Internet of Things
Augmented
and synthetic
Internet
of Thingsthat Knows You Better than You Know Yourself
Self-healing
materials biology
Technology
population
of 9 billion), $1,000
worth with
of computing
will equal
thejust
processing
all human brains on earth.
Nano-technology
Dealing
a society power
at retirement
Adaptive
cruise control
age
Not
Big Data,power
butbatteries:
a of
zettaflood
Compressed
air
The worlds most cost Today, we know 5 percent of what we will know in 50 years. In other words, in 50 years, 95 percent of what we will know will have
been discovered in the past 50 years.

effective
App
energy
stores
storage
and marketplaces
The
worlds
data
will
increase
sixfold
in
each
of
the
next
two
years,
while
corporate
data
will
grow
fiftyfold.
Mobile apps redefining service
industries
China moving up the value chain Wisdom of the cloud
Better bikes
Agri-science
Carbon
dioxide (CO2) conversion and use
Autonomous
Next-generation
electric vehicles:
analytics
By 2015,
wecontrol
will create
the
equivalent
of 92.5
million
Congress
in one Asia
year.and Africa
The
fight for
ofthe
mobile
payments
Risingofincomes
in South
Predictive
medical
analysis
in Libraries
cars
The know
next Net
them
system
Advanced materials
and nano-technology
BigLibraries
data
Enhanced
By2015,
movie downloads
andmade
peer-to-peer
filefiber
sharing
will explode
to 100 exabytes, equivalent
toworld
5 million
of Congress.
The
great deleveraging
Planes
of carbon
The
gets smaller
Ultra-cheap
By
2015,
video
calling
will
be
pervasive,
generating
400
exabytes
of
datathe
equivalent
of
20
million
Libraries
of
Congress.
Reinventing
Energyentertainment
and itsstorage
Remote sensing
internet
In-memory
access
computing
By2015,
the phone, web,
email,entertainment
photos, and music will explode
exabytes of data.
Taming to
thegenerate
Big Data50
tsunami
Subway
The power of power
Within
on the Internet will double every 11 hours.
The
fall two
and years,
rise of information
social
media
Precise
will
be connected
planet).
Better looking
the
Tea.
By 2020, there
will to
beexist
more devices than people online.
Newspapers
cease
Cloud computing
enough
addresses
addresses.
Teeth
with
Another
By 2020,
will be commonplace in every device.
Data
rightsuniversal
become language
anFourth-generation
issue translation reactors
and nuclear-waste recycling
In the next five years,
any
surface
will
become
a display.
Smart disinfectants
for thefrozen
brain food
will take place.
Gourmet
Toptop
25 Technology
Predictions
The
twenty business
trends in 2020
19

12 reasons 2020 will be an awesome
year
at CES 2013
Business
Information Management
Robotic
moon base
Fighting
the Power
By 2029,
11 petabytes
of
storage
will be available
for $100
The
top
10
emerging
technologies
The
five
most
disruptive
Robots
taking
our
jobs
The
DIY
economy
continues
to
rise
Virtual
Avatars
In the
next 10 years,
we
will
see
a
20-time
increase
in
home
networking
speeds.
for 2013
oftablets
2012
technologies
High speed
rail
link connecting
China and Europe
Big data
revolution
Media
and beyond
The
Intelligent
Home
By 2013,
wireless
anew
month.
The
Internet
of
machines
A
education
revolution
in Anything
By theIntelligence
end of 2010, there
will be a that
billion
transistors
of
cent.
Innovations
will
10 technologies
that
will
change
aGesture
Autonomous
and
flying
cars

tomorrow
OnLine Electric
applications
Vehicles
of space
(OLEV)
the
Mobile-centric
based
interfaces:
applications
Controlling
interfaceswithout
The
Interface
of You andcomputers
The
Internet
will
evolve
to
perform
instantaneous
communication,
regardless
of
distance.
the
world
in
next
10
years
Flatter
organizations
Reskilling
the
workforce
touching them
The Cloud to Become the Norm

Biofuels
competitive
with
fossiluser
fuels
2020,
3D printing
systems
Contextual
social
experience
Youre and
the Doctor
Byprinting
a $1,000 personal
computer
will have the raw processing
power
of a human
3D
Older workers
re-entering
thebrain.
workforce
Electric
clothes
The
Internet of Things
Connecting theCloud
With
the Crowd
Augmented
Devices
controlled
by microchips implanted in humans
and synthetic
Internet
of Things
Self-healing
materials biology
Technology
that Knows
You
population
worth with
of computing
will equal
thejust
processing
all human
brains
onBetter
earth.than You Know Yourself
Nano-technology
Dealing
a society power
at retirement
Adaptive
control
age
Not
Big Data,power
butbatteries:
a of
zettaflood
Virtual Hospitals Thanks

to cruise
Bio-Connectivity
Compressed
air
The worlds most cost Today, we know 5 percent of what we will know in 50 years. In other words, in 50 years, 95 percent
of
what
we
will
know
will
have
been
discovered
in the past 50 years.
effective
Ultra-thin
OLED
screens
worlds
increase
App
energy
stores
storage
and marketplaces
The
data
will
sixfold
in
each
of
the
next
two
years,
while
corporate
data
will
grow
fiftyfold.
Mobile
apps redefiningElectronic
service
industries
Better bikes
Ultra-Intelligent
Agents
By 2015,
Google will index approximately 775 billion pages of content.
Autonomous
Commercial
space
to theThe
moon
asteroids
Agri-science
Carbon
dioxide (CO2) conversion and use
Next-generation
electrictravel
vehicles:
analytics
endand
of cars
as we
By 2015,
wecontrol
will create
the
equivalent
of 92.5
million
Libraries
ofincomes
Congress
in one Asia
year.and Africa
The
fight
for
of
the
mobile
payments
Rising
in
South
Predictive
medical
analysis
in
cars
The
next
Net
New Image and Video Analysis Algorithms and Tools

know them
system
By 2020 worldwide, the average person will maintain 130 terabytes of personal data (today it is ~128
gigabytes).
$1,000
computer
Advanced materials
and nano-technology
Big
data with the processing power of the human brain
Enhanced
By2015,
movie downloads
and
peer-to-peer
file
sharing
will
explode
to
100
exabytes,
equivalent
to
5
million
Libraries
of Congress.
The
great
deleveraging
Planes
made
of
carbon
fiber
The
world
gets
smaller
2015,
Improved Call Sound Quality
Ultra-cheap
By
video
calling
will
be
pervasive,
generating
400
exabytes
of
datathe
equivalent
of
20
million
Libraries
of
Congress.
Reinventing
internet
Ubiquitous,
mobile computing
universal translation
Energyentertainment
and itsstorage
Remote sensing
In-memory
access
By2015,
the phone, web,
email,entertainment
exabytes of data.
Taming to
thegenerate
Big Data50
tsunami
Subway
The power of power
Digital Jewelry, e.g.

Augmented
Reality devices
Within
on the Internet will double every 11 hours.
The
fall two
and years,
rise of information
social
media
Augmented
reality
Precise
Extreme
low-energy servers
will
be connected
planet).
Better looking
the
Tea.
By 2020, there
will to
beexist
more devices than people online.
Newspapers
cease
Synthetic
braincomputing
Cloud
enough
addresses
addresses.
Teeth
with
Another
By 2020,
will be commonplace in every device.
Data
rightsuniversal
become language
anFourth-generation
any
surface
will
become
a display.
Smart disinfectants
for thefrozen
brain food
will take place.
Gourmet
Toptop
25
Technology
Predictions
9 Bold
Predictions
for the in
Digital
The
twenty
business
trends
2020
World of 2020
20

12 reasons 2020 will be an awesome
year
at CES 2013
10 breakthrough technologies
Business
Information Management
Robotic
moon base
Fighting
the Power
By 2029,
11 petabytes
of
storage
will be available
for $100
2013
The
top
10
emerging
technologies
The
five
most
disruptive
Robots
taking
our
jobs
The
DIY
economy
continues
to
rise
Virtual
Avatars
In the
next 10 years,
we
will
see
a
20-time
increase
in
home
networking
speeds.
for 2013
oftablets
2012
technologies
High speed
rail
link connecting
China and Europe
Big data
revolution
Media
and beyond
The
Intelligent
Home
By 2013,
wireless
anew
month.
The
Internet
of
machines
A
education
revolution
in Anything
Deep learning
By theIntelligence
end of 2010, there
will be a that
billion
transistors
costing one ten-millionth
of
cent.
Innovations
will
change per humaneach
10 technologies
that
will
change
aGesture
Autonomous
and
flying
cars

tomorrow
OnLine Electric
applications
Vehicles
of space
(OLEV)
the
Mobile-centric
based
interfaces:
applications
Controlling
interfaceswithout
The
Interface
of You andcomputers
The
Internet
will
evolve
to
perform
instantaneous
communication,
regardless
of
distance.
the
world
in
next
10
years
Flatter
organizations
Reskilling
the
workforce
touching
them
The Cloud to Become the Norm

The first commercial quantum computer will be available byTemporary
mid-2020.social media
Biofuels
competitive
with
fossiluser
fuels
2020,
3D printing
systems
Contextual
social
experience
Youre and
the Doctor
By
a
$1,000
personal
computer
will
have
the
raw
processing
power
of a human
3D printing
Older workers
re-entering
thebrain.
workforce
Electric
clothes
The
Internet of Things
Connecting theCloud
With
the Crowd
Augmented
reality:
Fusing
the
real
and the virtual
Prenatal
DNA
screening
Devices
controlled
by microchips implanted in humans

and synthetic
Internet
of
Things
Self-healing
materials biology
Technology
that Knows
You
population
worth with
of computing
will equal
thejust
processing
all human
brains
onBetter
earth.than You Know Yourself
Nano-technology
Dealing
a society power
at retirement
Adaptive
control
age
Not
Big Data,power
butbatteries:
a of
zettaflood
Virtual
Hospitals Thanks
to cruise
Bio-Connectivity
Compressed
air
The worlds most cost Additive
Today,
we know 5 percent of what we will know in 50 years.
In othermanufacturing
words, in 50 years, 95 percent
of
what
we
will
know
will
have
been
discovered
in the past 50 years.
effective
Ultra-thin
OLED
screens
worlds
increase
App
energy
stores
storage
and marketplaces
The
data
will
sixfold
in
each
of
the
next
two
years,
while
corporate
data
will
grow
fiftyfold.
Mobile
apps redefiningElectronic
service
industries
Better bikes
Ultra-Intelligent
Agents
Baxter:
The Blue Collared Robot
By 2015,
Google will index approximately 775 billion pages
of content.
Autonomous
Commercial
space
to theThe
moon
asteroids
2015,
Agri-science Carbon dioxide (CO2) conversion and use
Next-generation
electrictravel
vehicles:
analytics
endand
of cars
as we
By
we
will
create
the
equivalent
of
92.5
million
Libraries
of
Congress
in one Asia
year.and Africa
The fight
for
control
of
the
mobile
payments
Rising
incomes
in
South
Predictive
medical
analysis
in
cars
The
next
Net
New Image and Video Analysis Algorithms and Tools
know
them
terabytes
Memory Implants
system
By 2020 worldwide, the average person will maintain 130
of personal data (today it is ~128
gigabytes).
$1,000
computer
Advanced materials
and nano-technology
Big
data with the processing power of the human brain
Enhanced
By2015,
movie downloads
and
peer-to-peer
file
sharing
will
explode
to
100
exabytes,
equivalent
to
5
million
Libraries
of Congress.
The
great
deleveraging
Planes
made
of
carbon
fiber
The
world
gets
smaller
2015,
Improved Call Sound Quality
Ultra-cheap
Smart Watches
By
video
calling
will
be
pervasive,
generating
400
exabytes
of
datathe
equivalent
of
20
million
Libraries
of
Congress.
Reinventing
internet
Ubiquitous,
mobile computing
universal translation
Energyentertainment
and itsstorage
Remote sensing
In-memory
access
By2015,
the phone, web,
email,entertainment
to
exabytes of data.
thegenerate
Big Data50
tsunami
Subway
The power of power
Digital Jewelry, e.g.

Augmented
Reality devices Taming
Ultra-Efficient
Within
on the Internet will double every
11 hours. Solar Power
The
fall two
and years,
rise of information
social
media
Augmented
reality
Precise
Extreme
low-energy servers
willlooking
be connected
the
planet).
Better
Tea.
By 2020, there
will to
beexist
more devices than people online. Big Data from Cheap Phones
Newspapers
cease
Synthetic
braincomputing
Cloud
enough
addresses
addresses.
Teeth
with
Another
Supergrids
By 2020,
will be commonplace
in every device.
Data
rightsuniversal
become language
anFourth-generation
any
surface
will
become
a
display.
Smart disinfectants
for thefrozen
brain food
will take place.
Gourmet
Toptop
25
Technology
Predictions
9 Bold
Predictions
for the in
Digital
The
twenty
business
trends
2020
World of 2020
21
We focused our work on an original list of 100 contenders
Fission
Fusion panel
Carbon
12 winners
sequestration
Advanced water
purification
Quantum computing
5 close contenders
All 83 others reviewed
22
And the winners are? A few tips

Technology disruptions can be visible ( e.g.
cost decrease by 50% in one year, etc), yet it

usually takes time to percolate and
penetrate all sectors of life/economy
We see computers
everywhere, not in statistics
The internet economy is

barely 3% of GDP but we cant
live without it
Technology without science

and funding will not be called
technology
Major technology disruption affects as much

user surplus as economic activity
Nanotechnology driven by Human
Genome Project
Internet ancestor, the Arpanet was a publicly
funded project
23
So The Disruptive Dozen: Speed, Scope, and Economics at stake

IT and how we use it
Mobile Internet
Increasingly inexpensive and capable mobile computing devices and Internet
connectivity
Cloud technology
Use of computer hardware and software resources delivered over a network or
the Internet, often as a service
Internet of Things
Networks of low-cost sensors and actuators for data collection, monitoring,
decision making, and process optimization
Automation of knowledge work
Intelligent software systems that can perform knowledge work tasks involving
unstructured commands and subtle judgments
24
The Disruptive Dozen: Speed, Scope, and Economics at stake

Mobile Internet
connectivity
Machines working for us

Cloud technology
Advanceddelivered
roboticsover a network or
Use of computer hardware and software resources
Increasingly capable robots with enhanced senses,
dexterity, and intelligence used to automate tasks or
augment humans
Internet of Things
Networks of low-cost sensors and actuators
for data collection,
monitoring,
Autonomous
and near-autonomous
vehicles
Vehicles that can navigate and operate with reduced or no
human intervention
3D printing
Additive manufacturing techniques to create objects by
printing layers of material based on digital models
25

Mobile Internet
connectivity

Cloud technology
Advanceddelivered
augment humans
Internet of Things
Rethinking energy comes of age
monitoring,
Autonomous
and near-autonomous
vehicles
Energy
storage
human intervention Devices or systems that store energy for later use,
including batteries
3D printing
Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery
Additive manufacturing
techniques
create objects
by that make extraction
Exploration
andto
recovery
techniques
printing layers of material
based
on
digital
models
of unconventional oil and gas economical
Renewable energy
Generation of electricity from renewable sources with
reduced harmful climate impact
26

Mobile Internet
connectivity

Cloud technology
Advanceddelivered
augment humans
Internet of Things
Rethinking energy comes of age
monitoring,
Autonomous
and near-autonomous
vehicles
Energy
storage
human intervention Devices or systems that store energy for later use,
including batteries
3D printing
Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery
Changing
the
building
blocks
of everything
Additive manufacturing
techniques
create
objects
by
Exploration
andto
recovery
techniques
that make
extraction
printing layers of material
based
on
digital
models
of unconventional oilNext-generation
and gas economical
genomics
Fast, low-cost gene sequencing, advanced big data
Renewable energy
analytics, and synthetic biology (writing DNA)
Generation of electricity from renewable sources with
reduced harmful climate impact
Advanced materials
Materials designed to have superior characteristics
(e.g., strength, weight, conductivity) or functionality
27
Agenda
1. Why and how

2. The next 12
28
Key learning
1. 10 disruptive technologies, if right, is 50% of total
productivty growth of the future
2. Do not confuse hype with impact: renewable energy
versus advanced robotics
3. Digital is the platform
4. Globalisation, millenialisation, and new behaviors
5. What does a world look like if all tech get to flourish in the
same time?
29
Impact of the Disruptive Dozen technology

USD million
100% =14
14
20%
Other technical
change
Top 12
Worldwide
Contribution
GDP volume split
impact
2014-2025
35%
43%
Worldwide
Top 2
GDP volume disruptive
impact
2014-2025
Top 5
disruptive
Top 10
disruptive
30
Hype versus impact

Renewable
energy
Autonomous
transportation
Mobile
internet
Next-generation
genomics
Cloud
technology
Advanced
robotics
Internet
of Things
Hype
10,000
Articles in media
2012; #
Advanced
materials
Mass
Advanced
oil & gas
1,000
Niche
500
Low
3,000
Medium
High
Impact ; billion US by 2025, nominal

31
Economic Potential by 2025: digital rules

$ trillion, annual
Range of sized potential economic impacts
Low
High
Mobile Internet
3.710.8
Cloud technology
1.76.2
Internet of Things
2.76.2
Automation of
knowledge work
5.26.7
Advanced robotics
1.74.5
Autonomous and nearautonomous vehicles
0.21.9
3D printing
0.20.6
Energy storage
0.10.6
Advanced oil and gas

exploration and recovery
Renewable energy
0.10.5
0.20.3
Next-generation
genomics
Advanced materials
Impact from other

potential applications
0.71.6
0.20.5
32
The digital universe expansion
2005-15
2015-25
Social networks
Rich media
Mobile internet
Smart cities
Connected health, cars,
Web channel
Big data
Artificial intelligence
Information/ website
People/social
Connected devices/
2000-05
Core
Application
Core
capabilities
Connection
type
Access type
Search/E-mail/
portals
Narrowband (98kb/s)
networks
Broadband (15mb/s;
3G4G)
etc.
Manufacturing 4.0
Internet of Things
Mega-band everywhere (Fiber, 5G)
33
Lead digitization providers build economic value

400
377
Market value of the top 20 largest internet companies worldwide in 2014 (Bn USD)
Market value (in billion U.S. dollars)
350
Top 20 Digital businessses

global top 20 worldwide
300
already worth of
250
40% of total market valued added in late 5 years
200
157
150
144
132
100
66
50
63
59
35
33
29
25
24
23
19
18
16
14
13
11
Note: Worldwide; May 2013

Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 8.
34
Globalisation: Split Developed/Developing

Share impact; %
Developed
Developing
50
50
80
20
70
30
30
70
80
20
80
20
60
40
60
40
80
20
20
80
80
20
90
10
35
In practice
36
Digital Millenials to be the dominant work-force by 2020
50%
37
A new business world: new companies

Sector
Developments in the
digital age:
Transparent access
to data on a massive
scale
Decreasing cost of
computing power
Ubiquitous
connectivity
Example impacts
Travel,
transportation,
logistics
Auto
manufacturing
Banking
Telecom and
media
Health
: McKinsey Digital; McKinsey Strategy and Corporate Finance practice
38
What if combined
mobile internet+ RFID+ energy storage+

automated cars = new transport, new cities,
no longer car insurance, etc, etc
39
A call for action

1. 10 years is long and short- long enough to fall off of strategic
plan, short enough to have disruption at your door
2. Boom and bust/consolildation one big bet, and a few more
incremental
3. Think la Google- Search, incremental 20% product, and
separate big enough Google
4. Digitize your growth platform
40
Text
SOURCE: Source
41
Quoting Steve jobs- thank you
42
Thank you!
Download our reports
www.mckinsey.com/mgi
@ McKinsey_MGI
www.facebook.com/
McKinseyGlobalInstitute
McKinsey Global Institute
43

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Digitization and The

Santiago , July 2015

Jacques received a masters summa cum

He holds doctoral degrees in Economics and

1. McKinsey Global Institute co-author of

He has lectured at many universities,

3. More than 50 academic research publications , e.g., in

He is also a fellow of the ECARES, a think-

4. Business interviews, e.g., in Le Monde, The Economist,

including Toronto, London, and Brussels

tank on economic policy in Belgium, and a

5. Multiple books of which Managing media companies, Wiley

1. Why and how

Why: GDP growth taking off , fuelled by tech changes

First Industrial Second Industrial Revolution

Why: Technology is the largest fuel

accounting for a total of USD

Value added is only the tip of

SOURCE: R. Solow; Hall; Wikipedia; Annals of Statistics; McKinsey estimates

Digital technology has been the key engine lately

% contribution of technology change to world output growth

SOURCE: R. Solow; Hall; Wikipedia; Annals of Statistics; McKinsey estimates

Why: Technology disruptive growth, 20 years ago

Why: Technology disruptive growth, current decade

Web 1.0 portal

Why: Hyperscale digital businesses are capturing entire

+/- 1.5 million for

1 commerce, books for amazon, 2- music, 3 video

Why: Have you heard about

How: Disruptive technology defined

High rate of technology change (in

Significant increase in the rate of

Potential to impact large pools of

Potential to touch the lives of billions of

Potential to impact multiple sectors

Extensive reach of technology

Potential to significantly change peoples jobs and

Not only economic, but societal

How: Predicting is hard especially the future

How: Not a prediction, but a careful selection

Collect existing list

Screen list based on

Further detailed impact

Hype list built up,

How: We relied on external advisory to cross-check our results

External advisory Board, e.g.

The Disruptive Dozen technology

About 10 experts per technology

1. Why and how

3. What to make out of it

Technology trend lists everywhere

By 2029, 11 petabytes of storage will be available for $100

Technology trend lists everywhere

10 Disruptive Technologies for

By 2029, 11 petabytes of storage will be available for $100

Technology trend lists everywhere

10 Disruptive Technologies for

Augmented reality: Fusing the real and the virtual

Ultra-cheap web devices: Five billion people with

Technology trend lists everywhere

10 Disruptive Technologies for

Life sciences, genomics

Energy-efficient water purification

Agri-science Carbon dioxide (CO2) conversion and use