Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Statisticshelpdesk
Illustration 1.
The trend equation for a time series is fitted as Yc = 60 + 1.5X
Shift the trend origin from 2004 to 1998, given that the time unit is 1 year.
Solution:
Here, the trend origin is to be shifted back by 5 years i.e. from 2004 to 1999.
Thus K = -5
By the formula of trend shifting we have, Yc = a + b (X K)
= 60 + 1.5 (X 5)
= 60 + 1.5X 7.5
= 52.5 + 1.5X, where the origin of X = 1999.
Statisticshelpdesk
Illustration 2.
Shift the trend origin from 2002 to 2004 in the following trend equation:
Yc = 20.3 + 0.4X + 0.5 2
Given that the time unit = 1 Year.
Solution:
Here, the trend origin is to be shifted forward by 2 years i.e. from 2002 to 2004. Hence, k =
2. By the formula of trend shifting we have, Yc = a +b (X + K) + c (X + K ) 2
( it is a parabolic equation of second degree)
Substituting the respective values in the above, we get Yc = 20.3 + 0.4 (X + 2) + 0.5 (X +
2)2
= 20.3 + 0.4X + 0.8 + 0.5 ( 2 + 4X + 4)
= 20.3 + 0.4X + 0.8 + 0.5 2 + 2X + 2
= Yc = 23.1 + 2.4X + 0.5 2
Statisticshelpdesk
In the above equation, it must be seen that the values of both a and b have been changed,
whereas the value of c has remained unchanged This is because, it was the case of shifting
a parabolic equation of second degree.
Illustration 3.
The parabolic trend equation for the sales (000 $) of a company is given below :
Yc = 20.4 1.5X + 0.6 2
Shift the trend origin from 1999 to 2004 given that the time unit is 1 Year.
Solution:
Here, the trend origin is to be shifted forward by 5 years i.e. from 1999 to 2004. Hence, k =
5
By the formula of shifting a trend we have,
Yc = a b (X + K) + c(X + K)2
( it is a parabolic equation of the given order.)
Statisticshelpdesk
Substituting the respective values in the above we have,
Yc = 20.4 1.5 X +5) + 0.6 (X + 5)2
= 20.4 1.5X 7.5 + 0.6 ( 2 + 10X + 25)
= 20.4 1.5X 7.5 + 0.6 2 + 6X + 15
= 27.9 + 4.5X + 0.6 2
Hence, the shifted trend equation is Yc = 27.9 + 4.5X + 0.6 2 given that the trend origin is
shifted to 2004.
Illustration 4
Shift the trend origin from 2003 to 1st Jan 04 in the linear equation,
Yc = 14.5 + 0.4X, given that unit of time = 1 Year.
Solution:
Here, the origin 2003 means 1st July 03 (the middle part of the year).
Hence, the origin is to be shifted forward by only
1
2
Thus ,k =
By the formula of shifting a trend we have,
Yc = a + b (X + k)
Substituting the given values we have,
Statisticshelpdesk
Yc = 14.5 + 0.4 (X + )
= 14.5 + 0.4X + 0.2
= 14.7 + 0.4X
Hence Yc = 14.7 + 0.4X
Where the trend origin is shifted to 1st Jan 04.
Conversion of a Trend Equation.
By conversion of a trend equation, we mean the change of a trend equation formulated on
one type of time basis into a trend equation on another type of time basis. Thus, if a trend
equation of yearly period, is transformed into a trend equation of monthly or quarterly
period, or vice versa, it will be called conversion of a trend equation.
Method of Conversion.
The following methods are to be adopted for converting a given trend equation into a
required trend equation :
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
Notes: 1. Under (i) above, the constant a is divided by 12 because the trend value of the
origin would now relate to a month instead of a year. The factor bX is divided by 12 12
because the slope of the change i.e. b and the time deviation i.e. X would now relate to a
month instead of a year.
2. Under (iii) above, the constant a is divided by 4, so that it may relate to a quarters and
the factor bX is divided by 4 12, so that the slope of change i.e. b may relate to a
quarters, and the time deviation i.e. X may relate to a month.
3. The problem of conversion of a trend may be clubbed with a problem of shifting the trend
origin as well. In such cases, the shifting is to be made first, and then the conversion, if it is
desired to convert a trend equation from a lower periodical base to a higher periodical base
viz: from monthly to annual equation. In the reverse case, the conversion is to be made
first, and then the shifting.
Statisticshelpdesk
Contact Us:
Phone: +44-793-744-3379
Mail Us: info@statisticshelpdesk.com
Web: www.statisticshelpdesk.com
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Statshelpdesk
Twitter: https://twitter.com/statshelpdesk
Blog: http://statistics-help-homework.blogspot.com/