Jos Cordeiro, PhD

(www.cordeiro.org)
The Millennium Project
Director, Venezuela Node
Singularity University
NASA Ames, California, USA
World Futuro Society
Venezuela Chapter

The Energularity: The Future of

Energy and the Energy of the Future

Sociedad Mundial del Futuro

VENEZUELA

www.FuturoVenezuela.net

Premio Sembrar el Futuro

The Millennium Project

Bogota

Global futurist think-tank with 50 nodes

around the world

15 Global Challenges

Singularity University

Ray Kurzweil (MIT):

The Singularity is Near

www.singularity.com
Bill Gates
Ley de Moore

Attitudes towards the future

Passive (ostrich)

Suffer the future

Reactive (fire fighter)

Respond

Preactive (insurer)

Prepare

Proactive (builder)

Create

Sir Arthur C. Clarke with Jose Cordeiro

The Three Laws of Sir Arthur C. Clarke

First Law: When a distinguished but elderly
scientist states that something is possible,
he is almost certainly right. When he states
that something is impossible, he is very
probably wrong.
Second Law: The only way of discovering
the limits of the possible is to venture a little
way past them into the impossible.
Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced
technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Technologies of the past

30 years ago
Personal computers
20 years ago
Cell phones
10 years ago
Google
What will happen in 10 years? In 20
years? In 30 years?
Immortality, free energy!

ENERGY
US$ 8 TRILLIONS

Singularity University Graduate

Studies Program 2010

Towards a post-petroleum world

British Petroleum

Beyond Petroleum

Sociedad Mundial del Futuro

VENEZUELA

Tres polticas petroleras:

Del pasado (basada
en precios)
Del presente (basada
en volmenes)
Del futuro (basada en
valor agregado)

Sociedad Mundial del Futuro

VENEZUELA

De la manufactura a la mentefactura

Energy waves: decarbonization

100%
80%

Future
Others

60%

Gas
Oil

40%

Coal
Wood

20%
0%
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Shell: Sustainable Growth Scenario

1500
Surprise
Geothermal

Carbon sequestration

1000

Solar

Exajoules

Biomass

Wind
Nuclear
Hydro

500

Gas
Oil &NGL

0
1860

Coal
Trad. Bio.

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

Oil costs and reserves

Deeper and deeper

Peak Oil in the 21st Century?

The Stone Age did not end
because of lack of stones, and
the Oil Age will end soon and
not because of lack of oil.

Sheik Ahmed Yamani, 2000

Saudi Arabia

Peak Whale Oil in the 19th Century

Sun activity has increased during

the last few years

Juanita: la momia inca

Hoy

Masdar City: Abu Dhabi, UAE

Available Renewable Energy

SUN CHEAPER THAN FOSSIL

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.quintasenergy.com/user/grid001.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.quintasenergy.com/index.php%3Fid%3D479&usg=__QIc3_3_wG7Izd3thmVAgq81PY3s=&h=276&w=400&sz=22&hl=en&start=0&zoom=1&tbnid=4y0N4jTVyvMR6M:&tbnh=130&t
bnw=188&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dgrid%2Bparity%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefoxa%26sa%3DN%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:it:official%26biw%3D1192%26bih%3D580%26tbs%3Disch:1&um=1&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=723&vpy=303&dur=1148&hovh=186&hovw=270&tx=139&ty=121&ei=FYNvTMm1MZKgnQfv4eXIBw&oei=FYNvTMm1MZKgnQfv4eXIBw&esq=1&page=1&nds
p=15&ved=1t:429,r:13,s:0

Google self-driving cars

BMW forecasts 2025

TESLA: The end of gasoline cars!

TESLA Supercharger Network

Elon Musk and the Tesla Powerwall

Electric Vehicles deployment

20 million BEVs and PHEVs

on the road by 2020.

5th Avenue, New York, April 15, 1900

5th Avenue, New York, March 23, 1913

Fuel type
Pumped stored water at 100 m dam height

Energy content (MJ/kg)

0.001

Bagasse

10

Wood

15

Sugar

17

Methanol

22

Coal (anthracite, lignite, etc.)

23 - 29

Ethanol (bioalcohol)

30

LPG (liquefied petroleum gas)

34

Butanol

36

Biodiesel

38

Oil (medium petroleum average)

42

Gasohol or E10 (90% gasoline and 10% alcohol mix)

44

Gasoline

45

Diesel

48

Methane (gaseous fuel, compression-dependent)

55

Hydrogen (gaseous fuel, compression-dependent)

120

Nuclear fission (Uranium, U 235)

90

Nuclear fusion (Hydrogen, H)

300

Binding energy of helium (He)

675

Mass-energy equivalence (Einsteins equation)

89,880,000

Antimatter as fuel (estimated according to E = mc 2)

180,000,000

Bioenergy and eternal energy

The cells of life
Photosynthesis
CO2 + 2 H2O + light
(CH2O) + O2 + H2O

From fossil
hydrocarbons to live
carbohydrates
Craig Venter and his
petroleum bacteria

The Enernet: Energy Internet

Dirty energy
Dumb grid
Inefficient systems
Expensive energy
Centralized system
Low redundancy
Fossil fuels
Producers control
Big oil and utilities

Clean energy
Smart grid
Efficient systems
Cheap energy
Distributed system
High redundancy
Renewable sources
Prosumers control
Entrepreneurs

The Energy Internet

Buckminster Fuller
Global Energy
Network Institute
GENI.org

Earth Based Solar Power

6 land blocks of 100 km2 with 3 TW are enough for humanity today

NASA: Space Solar Power (stand-by)

2002

2003-2005

2006-2010

2011-2015

2016-2020

FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Studies & Proof-ofConcept

Technology
Research (TRL 2-4)

Technology
Research,
Development and
Test (TRL 4-5)

Technology
Testbeds
Component-Level
Proof-of-Concept
experiments

Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards

10 kW
100 kW
1 MW

High Power SEPS

For Science Probes

Large structures for large

apertures & solar sails
50 M Class flight expt.
(incl SPG, AR&D, dist. control)

Technology Demos
(TRL 6-7)

LEGEND

Complete Initial R&D for

1 MW to Full-Scale SSP

Ground Test very large

deployable structures
High Efficiency
Arrays for S/C

Dual-Purpose
Applications R&D
(TRL 4-6)

Complete Initial SSP Technology Research

for 1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale Systems

SSP Concept
definition complete

Component-Level
Flight Experiments

R&D
Decision Point

High-Power GEO
CommSats

Complete Initial R&D for

1 MW to Full-Scale SSP

MSC 3

Lunar Power, Large SEPS

10 MW-Class Flight
Demo (TRL 7)

MSC 1
100 kW Class SSP
flight demo

MSC 2

10-100 kW SSP
planetary surface
demo
Major R&D Pgm
Milestone

1 MW Class SSP advanced

technology subsystem flight
demos (SPG/SEPS/WPT)

Strategic R&T Road

Map Objective

SSP Model System

Concept(s)

MSC 4+
(2020+)

JAXA: Space Solar Power (2030)

Moon Energy 20 TW

Terraformation of Mars

Energy Singularity: Energularity

Technological Singularity:
Ray Kurzweil
Methuselarity!
Aubrey de Grey

Energularity?
Jose Cordeiro

Example
Power of Galileo space probe's radio signal from Jupiter
Minimum discernable signal at an FM antenna terminal
Average power consumption of a human cell
Approximate consumption of a quartz wristwatch
Laser in a CD-ROM drive
Approximate power consumption of the human brain
Power of the typical household light bulb
Average power used by the human body
Approximately 1000 BTU/hour
Power received from the Sun at the Earth's orbit by m2
Photosynthetic power output per km2 in ocean
Photosynthetic power output per km2 in land
Range of power output of typical automobiles
Mechanical power output of a diesel locomotive
Peak power output of largest class aircraft carrier
Power received from the Sun at the Earth's orbit by km2
Peak power generation of the largest nuclear reactor
Electrical generation of the Three Gorges Dam in China
Electrical power consumption of the USA in 2001
Electrical power consumption of the world in 2001
Total power consumption of the USA in 2001
Global photosynthetic energy production
Total power consumption of the world in 2001
Average total heat flux from earth's interior
Heat energy released by a hurricane
Estimated heat flux transported by the Gulf Stream
Total power received by the Earth from the Sun (Type I)
Luminosity of the Sun (Type II)
Approximate luminosity of the Milky Way galaxy (Type III)
Approximate luminosity of a Gamma Ray burst
Energy output of a galactic supercluster (Type IV)
Energy control over the entire universe (Type V civilization)

Power

Scientific notation

10 zW
2.5 fW
1 pW
1 W
5 mW
30 W
60 W
100 W
290 W
1.4 kW
3.3 - 6.6 kW
16 - 32 kW
40 - 200 kW
3 MW
190 MW
1.4 GW
3 GW
18 GW
424 GW
1.7 TW
3.3 TW
3.6 - 7.2 TW
13.5 TW
44 TW
50 - 200 TW
1.4 PW
174 PW
386 YW

10 10-21 watt
-15
2.5 10 watt
-12
1 10 watt
-6
1 10 watt
-3
5 10 watt
30 100 watt
0
60 10 watt
0
100 10 watt
0
2.9 10 watt
3
1.4 10 watt
3.3 - 6.6 103 watt
3
16 - 32 10 watt
3
40 - 200 10 watt
6
3 10 watt
6
190 10 watt
1.4 109 watt
9
3 10 watt
9
18 10 watt
9
424 10 watt
12
1.7 10 watt
3.3 1012 watt
12
3.6 - 7.2 10 watt
12
13.5 10 watt
12
44 10 watt
12
50 - 200 10 watt
1.4 1015 watt
174 1015 watt
386 1024 watt
5 1036 watt
1 1045 watt
1 1046 watt
1 1056 watt

5 1036 W
1 1045 W
1 1046 W
1 1056 W

SUN CHEAPER THAN FOSSIL

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.quintasenergy.com/user/grid001.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.quintasenergy.com/index.php%3Fid%3D479&usg=__QIc3_3_wG7Izd3thmVAgq81PY3s=&h=276&w=400&sz=22&hl=en&start=0&zoom=1&tbnid=4y0N4jTVyvMR6M:&tbnh=130&t
bnw=188&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dgrid%2Bparity%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefoxa%26sa%3DN%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:it:official%26biw%3D1192%26bih%3D580%26tbs%3Disch:1&um=1&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=723&vpy=303&dur=1148&hovh=186&hovw=270&tx=139&ty=121&ei=FYNvTMm1MZKgnQfv4eXIBw&oei=FYNvTMm1MZKgnQfv4eXIBw&esq=1&page=1&nds
p=15&ved=1t:429,r:13,s:0

Exponential increase in solar power

Exponential decrease in solar costs

Solar costs decreasing 10% per year

http://www.1366tech.com/v2/images/storie
s/site/learning_curve.gif

Renewable Energy Cost Trends

Levelized cost of energy in constant 2005$1

Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2005.ppt)

1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. DRAFT November 2005

Hydro pump storage for wind in

Belgium

Cheap (Free) Energy for the Earth

The end of energy poverty

Move beyond scarcity into abundance
Solve water and food problems
Improve infrastructure and transportation
Increase energy security
Eliminate oil rents by political demagogues
Open space to (post)human civilization
Terraform other planets

Singularity University Graduate

Studies Program 2010

Singularity University Graduate

Studies Program 2010

Light up the world

Yin-yang (and more yin-yang)

Guru Cordeiro meditating in India

(Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism)

Muchas gracias!
www.cordeiro.org