SARP Air Quality Group

Introduction to climate change

Barry Lefer
NASA Earth Sciences Division
Tropospheric Composition Program
16 June 2015
2015 SARP

ANTCI, 2005

Climate vs. weather

Weather
Shorter-term fluctuations

Climate
Longer-Term Changes

Current atmospheric conditions

(e.g., temp, press, ws, wdir,
rainfall, etc.)

Broad composite of average (or mean)

condition of a region (e.g., temp, rain,
snowfall, ice cover, winds, ocean
temperature)

Hours, Days, Weeks

Specific location for specific time

Years (and longer), Typically 30 yr ave.

Mean state of a specific region
(e.g., continent, ocean, or entire planet)

Climate system response

Ruddiman, 2008

Response times of climate system components

Lefer 12 i. basics

Ruddiman, 2008

How does Earths climate change?

Ein:

Sun
Earths Orbit
Albedo
Clouds
Particles

Eout:
CO2
CH4
N 2O
Clouds
Particles

Earth absorbs an average of 238 W/m2 from the Sun, but that does not
mean that every square meter absorbs this amount.

90 W/m2

320 W/m2

Energy Spatial Imbalance

www.physicalgeography.net

Earths Energy Budget No GHG

Sun

238

238

TEarth = 257K = -16C

Dessler, 2012

Earths Energy Budget with atmos

Dessler, 2012

Earths Energy Budget with atmos

Dessler, 2012

Earths Energy Budget with atmos

Dessler, 2012

Earths Energy Budget with atmos

P
476
4
2
4
= T = 476 W m = E out Tone _ layer =
8 = 302.7K
5.67 10
a
Dessler, 2012

Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012

Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012

Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012

Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012

Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012

Albedo-temperature feedback

Lefer 13 i. basics

Ruddiman, 2008

Albedo-temperature feedback

Lefer 14 i. basics

Source: NASA

Albedo-temperature feedback

Lefer 15 i. basics

Source: NASA

Positive and negative feedbacks

Lefer 17 i. basics

Ruddiman, 2008

Time scales of climate change

Ruddiman, 2008

Ocean sediment core record

Lefer 19 ii. past climates

GlobalWarming Art (t), Ruddiman, 2008 (b)

Coring Earths ice sheets

Lefer 20 ii. past climates

Twickler GISP2 SMO (1994)

Bubbles trapped in ice core

Lefer 20 ii. past climates

EPICA (2004)

Some basic reactions

C6H12O6 + O2 CO2 + H2O + heat
H2O + CO2 + sunlight C6H12O6+ O2
C6H12O6 + O2 CO2 + H2O + heat + NO + SO2
NO NO2 HNO3
SO2 H2SO4 sulfate aerosol
NOX + VOCs + sunlight O3
CO2 + H2O = HCO3- + H2CO3
Lefer 7 i. basics

Ice core proxy T, CO2, dust record

Lefer 21 ii. past climates

GlobalWarmingArt.com

CO2 measurement record

May 2015:
May 2014:

403.94 ppm
401.78 ppm

NOAA (2015)

CO2 Emissons (1870 2013)

CDIAC/Global Climate Project

Where does atmospheric CO2 go?

Lefer 8 i. basics

Ruddiman, 2008

How long is CO2 in the atmosphere?

Lefer 9 i. basics

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/4/48/Carbon_Dioxide_Residence_Time.png

CO2 lifetime in the atm-ocean system

Lefer 10 i. basics

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/4/48/Carbon_Dioxide_Residence_Time.png

Global Annual Surface Temperature

NASA GISS (2015)

Where is the trapped heat being stored?

NOAA NESDIS (2014)

Total Heat Content

Church et al. (2011), Nuccitelli et al, (2012)

Revised Global Annual Surface Temperature

NOAA (2015)

Ten Indicators of Warming

National Climate Assessment, 2014

Global Temperature Anomaly May 2015

NASA GISS

Volcanic cooling and El Nio warming

Ruddiman, 2001

Natural warming and greenhouse effects

Lefer 31 iii. natural & anthro cc

Ruddiman, 2008

Rate of global temperature rise

Period
25
50
100
150

Rate

0.1770.052
0.1280.026
0.0740.018
0.0450.012

Years /decade

Lefer 35 iv. future cc

Kevin Trenberth, 2008

Response to abrupt CO2 and SO2 emissions?

Lefer 37 iv. future cc

Ruddiman, 2008

Response to abrupt CO2 and SO2 emissions?

Lefer 38 iv. future cc

Ruddiman, 2008

Response to abrupt CO2 and SO2 emissions?

Lefer 39 iv. future cc

Ruddiman, 2008

Another future global temperature forecast

Lefer 41 iv. future cc

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/

Projected impacts of climate change

IPCC, 2007

Projected impacts of climate change

IPCC, 2007

Projected impacts of climate change

IPCC, 2007

Projected impacts of climate change

IPCC, 2007

The challenge

IPCC, 2007

Climate change common ground

All climate scientists agree that:
1) Earths average surface temperature has warmed by 0.7C
since 1900, a conclusion based on direct measurements.
2) Concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O, and other greenhouse
gases have built up in the atmosphere over the last 100
years due to human activities.
3) Climate change will result in significant negative impacts to
our environment and society.