Volumen

de Ventas
Precio de venta por tonelada
Costo variable por tonelada
Costos fijos

150000
$ 2,000.00

$ 1,400.00

$ 60,000,000.00

Costo horno
Gastos instalacin
Venta horno viejo
Impuesto x la venta
Horno actual

Ao
150000
157500
165375
173643.75
182325.938
191442.234
201014.346
211065.063
221618.317
232699.232

2000
2080
2163.2
2249.728
2339.71712
2433.3058
2530.63804
2631.86356
2737.1381
2846.62362

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

$ 1,400.00
$ 1,456.00
$ 1,514.24
$ 1,574.81
$ 1,637.80
$ 1,703.31
$ 1,771.45
$ 1,842.30
$ 1,916.00
$ 1,992.64

Horno 2

160000
168000
176400
185220
194481
204205.05
214415.303
225136.068

$ 2,080.00

$ 2,163.20

$ 2,249.73

$ 2,339.72

$ 2,433.31

$ 2,530.64

$ 2,631.86

$ 2,737.14

$ 1,350.00
$ 1,404.00
$ 1,460.16
$ 1,518.57
$ 1,579.31
$ 1,642.48
$ 1,708.18
$ 1,776.51

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

236392.871
248212.515
260623.14

$ 2,846.62

$ 1,847.57
$ 2,960.49

$ 1,921.47
$ 3,078.91

$ 1,998.33

9
10

2017

Intereses

640000

Ventas
Costo de Ventas
U bruta
Costos fijos
UAII
Intereses
UAI
Impuestos
UN

GAO
GAF
GAC

$ 332,800,000.00
$ 216,000,000.00
$ 116,800,000.00
$ 70,000,000.00
$ 46,800,000.00
$ 6,350,760.00

$ 40,449,240.00
$ 12,134,772.00
$ 28,314,468.00

2016
2016
2016

o x la venta

Volumen de ventas crecer

5%
Inflacin
4%
Costos de ventas y costos de produccin incrementan linealmente con la inflacin
Inversin inicial
$ 30,000,000.00
$ 4,000,000.00

$ 34,000,000.00
$ 4,000,000.00

$ -
$ 30,000,000.00

Volumen de Ventas
Precio de venta por tonelada
Costo variable por tonelada
Costos fijos
Depreciacin

Inversin inicial
Ventas
-$ 18,000,000.00
$ 300,000,000.00
$ 327,600,000.00
$ 357,739,200.00
$ 390,651,206.40
$ 426,591,117.39
$ 465,837,500.19
$ 508,694,550.21
$ 555,494,448.82
$ 606,599,938.12
$ 662,407,132.42

CV

Inversin inicial
Ventas
-$ 30,000,000.00
$ 332,800,000.00
$ 363,417,600.00
$ 396,852,019.20
$ 433,362,404.97
$ 473,231,746.22
$ 516,769,066.88
$ 564,311,821.03
$ 616,228,508.56

CV

$ 210,000,000.00
$ 229,320,000.00
$ 250,417,440.00
$ 273,455,844.48
$ 298,613,782.17
$ 326,086,250.13
$ 356,086,185.14
$ 388,846,114.18
$ 424,619,956.68
$ 463,684,992.70

$ 216,000,000.00
$ 235,872,000.00
$ 257,572,224.00
$ 281,268,868.61
$ 307,145,604.52
$ 335,403,000.14
$ 366,260,076.15
$ 399,956,003.15

CF
$ 60,000,000.00
$ 60,000,000.00
$ 60,000,000.00
$ 60,000,000.00
$ 60,000,000.00
$ 60,000,000.00
$ 60,000,000.00
$ 60,000,000.00
$ 60,000,000.00
$ 60,000,000.00

CF
$ 70,000,000.00
$ 70,000,000.00
$ 70,000,000.00
$ 70,000,000.00
$ 70,000,000.00
$ 70,000,000.00
$ 70,000,000.00
$ 70,000,000.00

Depreciacin
$ 1,800,000.00
$ 1,800,000.00
$ 1,800,000.00
$ 1,800,000.00
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -

Depreciacin
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00

$ 672,921,531.35 $ 436,751,955.44 $ 70,000,000.00 $ 3,400,000.00

$ 734,830,312.24 $ 476,933,135.34 $ 70,000,000.00 $ 3,400,000.00

2016
$ 300,000,000.00
$ 210,000,000.00
$ 90,000,000.00
$ 60,000,000.00
$ 30,000,000.00
$ 4,071,000.00

$ 25,929,000.00
$ 7,778,700.00

$ 18,150,300.00

3
1.157005669
3.471017008

Peq 2016

Unidades
0.666666667

Peq 2017

0.806451613

GAO
GAF
GAC

2016
2016
2016

Costo inicial
Depreciacin
Capital de trabajo

160000
$ 2,080.00

$ 1,350.00

$ 70,000,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00

UAII
$ 28,200,000.00
$ 36,480,000.00
$ 45,521,760.00
$ 55,395,361.92
$ 67,977,335.22
$ 79,751,250.06
$ 92,608,365.06
$ 106,648,334.65
$ 121,979,981.44
$ 138,722,139.73

UAII
$ 43,400,000.00
$ 54,145,600.00
$ 65,879,795.20
$ 78,693,536.36
$ 92,686,141.70
$ 107,966,066.74
$ 124,651,744.88
$ 142,872,505.41

Impuestos
$ 8,460,000.00

$ 10,944,000.00
$ 13,656,528.00
$ 16,618,608.58
$ 20,393,200.56
$ 23,925,375.02
$ 27,782,509.52
$ 31,994,500.39
$ 36,593,994.43
$ 41,616,641.92

Impuestos
$ 13,020,000.00
$ 16,243,680.00
$ 19,763,938.56
$ 23,608,060.91
$ 27,805,842.51
$ 32,389,820.02
$ 37,395,523.46
$ 42,861,751.62

$ 18,000,000.00
$ 1,800,000.00
7%

Volumen de ventas crecer

Inflacin
Tasa marginal

UDI
$ 19,740,000.00
$ 25,536,000.00
$ 31,865,232.00
$ 38,776,753.34
$ 47,584,134.65
$ 55,825,875.04
$ 64,825,855.54
$ 74,653,834.25
$ 85,385,987.00
$ 97,105,497.81

UDI
$ 30,380,000.00
$ 37,901,920.00
$ 46,115,856.64
$ 55,085,475.45
$ 64,880,299.19
$ 75,576,246.72
$ 87,256,221.42
$ 100,010,753.79

Depreciacin
$ 1,800,000.00
$ 1,800,000.00
$ 1,800,000.00
$ 1,800,000.00
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -

Depreciacin
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00
$ 3,400,000.00

Capital de trabajo
$ 21,000,000.00
$ 22,932,000.00
$ 25,041,744.00
$ 27,345,584.45
$ 29,861,378.22
$ 32,608,625.01
$ 35,608,618.51
$ 38,884,611.42
$ 42,461,995.67
$ 46,368,499.27

Capital de trabajo
$ 23,296,000.00
$ 25,439,232.00
$ 27,779,641.34
$ 30,335,368.35
$ 33,126,222.24
$ 36,173,834.68
$ 39,501,827.47
$ 43,135,995.60

$ 162,769,575.91 $ 48,830,872.77 $ 113,938,703.13 $ 3,400,000.00 $ 47,104,507.19

$ 184,497,176.89 $ 55,349,153.07 $ 129,148,023.82 $ 3,400,000.00 $ 51,438,121.86

$
$ 200,000,000.00
$ 244,193,548.39

3
1.021798365
3.065395095

Costo de capital
Acciones preferentes

5%
4%
30%

Dp
Pp
g

100
1000
0.04

Kp

0.14

Ka
Ka
Flujo total
-$ 18,000,000.00
$ 540,000.00

$ 4,404,000.00
$ 8,623,488.00
$ 13,231,168.90
$ 17,722,756.43
$ 23,217,250.03
$ 29,217,237.03 VPN
$ 35,769,222.84 TIR
$ 42,923,991.34 IR
$ 50,736,998.54

Flujo total
-$ 30,000,000.00
$ 10,484,000.00
$ 15,862,688.00
$ 21,736,215.30
$ 28,150,107.10
$ 35,154,076.96
$ 42,802,412.04
$ 51,154,393.94
$ 60,274,758.19

tasa de retorno
300 bps
1 bps

$ 58,031,866.72
48%
-4.223992596

VPN
TIR
IR

$76,031,866.72

$ 123,371,292.50 $153,371,292.50
65%
-5.112376417

$ 70,234,195.94
$ 81,109,901.97

0.08
0.3
Ks

4480000 +

0.165

16800000 +

AtKd

0.056

33000000

0.1357
VP flujos
0.1657
x

x
0.01 %

3%

-$463,240.97
-$3,240,960.35
-$5,444,055.88
-$7,165,574.69
-$8,233,742.61
-$9,253,158.46
-$9,989,219.78
-$10,490,957.62
-$10,799,880.01
-$10,951,076.36

VP flujos
-$8,993,737.67
-$11,673,556.49
-$13,722,193.45
-$15,245,190.85
-$16,332,088.21
-$17,058,760.21
-$17,489,418.44
-$17,678,324.64

-$17,671,257.15
-$17,506,765.39

DPBP
-$ 18,000,000.00
-$ 17,536,759.03
-$ 14,295,798.68
-$ 8,851,742.81
-$ 1,686,168.12
$ 6,547,574.49
0.204787567

PBP
-$ 18,000,000.00
-$ 17,460,000.00
-$ 13,056,000.00
-$ 4,432,512.00
$ 8,798,656.90
$ 26,521,413.33
$ 49,738,663.36
$ 78,955,900.39
-0.335005322

DPBP
-$ 30,000,000.00
-$ 21,006,262.33
-$ 9,332,705.84
$ 4,389,487.61
0.680117641

PBP
-$ 30,000,000.00
-$ 19,516,000.00
-$ 3,653,312.00
$ 18,082,903.30
$ 46,233,010.40
$ 81,387,087.36
-$ 0.17