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6/3/2015

Three Misconceptions About Inequality - Bloomberg View

E C ON OMIC S

ThreeMisconceptionsAbout
Inequality

APR1,201511:09AMEDT

ByPeterR.Orszag

aA

ConcernaboutinequalityintheU.S.isgettingwelldeservedattention.Unfortunately,though,
discussionsoftheproblemtoooftenrestonthreemisconceptions:thatcapitalisrisingasashare
oftheeconomy,thatmostoftheriseinwageinequalityisexplainedbygrowinggapswithin
companiesbetweenhigherandlowerpaidworkers,andthatworkersareincreasinglymovingfrom
onejobtoanother.
Allthreeofthesenotionsarewrong,tovaryingdegrees:Capitaloutsideofhousingandlandhas
notincreasedintheU.S.relativetotheeconomy.Mostoftheincreaseinwageinequalityhas
occurredbetweencompanies,notwithinthem.Andpeopleareless,notmore,likelytoswitchjobs
todaythantheywereinthepast.
Thepieceofthisthatmightholdthemostpotentialtoexplainallthemisunderstandingisthat
companieshavedivergedintheirproductivityandprofitrates.Andthatinturncouldsignalthe
riseofeconomicrentsforexample,profitsatsomecompanieswellinexcessofwhat's
necessarytokeeptheminthemarket.Suchwindfallgainstosomefirms(andworkers)may
underliethewholethreepartpuzzle.
Considerthat,fromthemid1970stothemid1990s,someU.S.manufacturingplantsbecamefar
moreproductivethanothers.AndmuchthesamethinghappenedintheU.K.fromthe1980stothe
2000s.
Duringroughlythesameperiod,thereturnoninvestedcapitalthatis,howmuchprofitis
generatedforeachdollarofinvestmentalsogrewmoreunequalbetweencompanies.Whilethe
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6/3/2015

Three Misconceptions About Inequality - Bloomberg View

typicalreturnwasroughlyconstant,atabout10percent,returnsbecamemoredispersedovertime.
Inparticular,from1965to1967,only1percentofnonfinancialfirmsearnedreturnsof50percent
ormore,butfrom2005to2007,14percentdid.Inotherwords,50yearsago,oneoutof100firms
earned50percentreturns.Morerecently,oneoutofsevendid.
Thesedatasuggestthreethings:First,thetypicalreturntocapitalhasn'tchangedmuch,whichis
whatyouwouldexpect,giventhatthecapitaloutputratioexcludinglandandhousinghasbeen
stable.
Second,fromcompanytocompany,thatreturnhasbecomemuchmoreunequal,ashas
productivity.Someofthisinequalitybetweencompaniesinreturnsandproductivitytendstospill
overintowages.Andthisispreciselywhatwe'veseen.Itexplainsmoreoftheriseinoverall
earningsinequalitythandoestheincreasedgapsbetweenthepayofhigherearnersandrankand
fileworkerswithinagivencompany.
Finally,workersatthehighpaying,highreturn,highproductivitycompaniesarenotmotivatedto
leave,soentryintojobsatthosecompaniesmaybelimited.Thisreducesaggregatejobturnover.
Thisalternativenarrativemayhaveafewholesasitiscobbledtogetherfromdifferentpiecesof
informationbutitatleastdeservesmoreattention.(Notethatevenifitcanhelptoexplain
inequality,itcantexplainwagestagnation,whichisoftenconflatedwithinequality.)
Themosttroublingaspectofthisnarrative,bytheway,isthatmuchofwhattheincreasingly
profitablecompaniesareearningmayexceedwhatsnecessaryforthemtocontinueproducing
theirgoodsorservices.
TheMcKinsey&Co.teamthatdocumentedtheriseinsuperhighreturnsnoted,Inmanycases,
thisimprovementhasoccurredinindustrieswithstrongbarrierstoentry,suchaspatentsorbrands
wheregainsthatcompanieshavemadefromdecreasedrawmaterialpricesandincreased
productivityhavenotbeentransferredtootherstakeholders.Theriseinhousingandlandvalues,
whichexplainstheentireriseintheratioofcapitaltooutput,mayrepresentyetanotherformof
windfallgains.
Thus,asJosephStiglitzhassaid,ourunderstandingofgrowinginequalityrequiresagreater
understandingofrents,whatgivesrisetothem,andhowtheyevolveovertime.
Foralltheconcernthathasbeenfocusedontheproblemofinequality,thisunderstandingofthe
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6/3/2015

Three Misconceptions About Inequality - Bloomberg View

roleplayedbywindfallsandcompanytocompanyinequalityhasreceivedshockinglylittle
attention.
Tocontacttheauthoronthisstory:
PeterOrszagatporszag3@bloomberg.net
Tocontacttheeditoronthisstory:
MaryDuenwaldatmduenwald@bloomberg.net

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