Tyndall Press statements

7 November 2000

What can we do about climate change?

As Britain battles through floods and major transport disruption, and the nations gear
up for the UN climate conference at the Hague, how can responsible businesses and
organisations prepare for climate change?

DrMi keHul me ,t
heCe nt
re’sExe cutiveDi rector,said:"Society is at last waking up
to climate change. What might once have been considered unusual weather
conditions for the UK –the recent storms and flooding, for example –are likely to be
much more frequent occurrences.

1 February 2001
The impacts of extreme events, such as windstorms, on the insurance and forestry
industries is to be investigated in a new Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
project, which also aims to shed light on the likely occurrence of future high winds
due to global warming.

Dr Palutikof says the October 1987 storm destroyed the equivalent of 2 years of
timber production in the UK, while the storms at the end of 1999 destroyed 10 percent
of French forests. "In western Europe, the January 1990 storm caused insured losses
of more than US$5 billion and 95 deaths, and was quickly followed by another storm
a month later causing a further US$4 billion in losses and 64 deaths."

Such industries may need to prepare for worse to come. The period since about
1970 has seen a steep increase in storminess, although this increase cannot be blamed
on global warming. Most climate models predict an increase in storm activity in
future, but results are still controversial.

5 September 2001
AtRi skfromCl imat
eCh
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and

Two University of East Anglia scientists will give stark warnings next week (3-7
September) about the risks posed by climate change to two very different, but
familiar, elements of our society.

Plants native to this country could be forced to find new habitats and the well-known
bracing Scottish climate could find itself a great deal warmer, wetter and windier if
global warming continues unabated.

Professor Andrew Watkinson and Dr Mike Hulme are speaking in separate sessions at
the Festival of Science, taking place in Glasgow next week (3-7 September).

"Direct intervention by humans will almost certainly be necessary if we are to

mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity," said Professor Watkinson, of
UEA's Schools of Biological and Environmental Sciences.
"We will have to consider the creation of 'habitat corridors' for the dispersal of
some species, as well as changes in habitat management and even the
translocation of some species" he continued.

Earlier research carried out by Dr Hulme for the Scottish Executive modelled the
possible effects of climate change on Scotland: "over the coming century warming
of up to 3 degrees Celsius could take place across Scotland; this would be
accompanied by increases in average wind speeds at all time of the year and increases
in rainfall intensity, especially in winter. Information of this type should be
incorporated into planning regulations and design guidelines for new infrastructure,"
he said.

23 October 2001
"The impacts of climate change are significant whether you herd goats in the Atlas
Mountains of Morocco or work in a river-side office block in central London," says
Dr Neil Adger, from the Tyndall Centre and University of East Anglia. "Climate
change is arguably the most persistent threat to global stability in the coming
century."

18 March 2002
CLIMATE CHANGE EXTENDS GROWING SEASON

Two climate scientists from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, based
at the University of East Anglia, have studied UK growing seasons dating back over
200 years. They found that the season is beginning earlier and finishing later. "If the
trend continues, it is possible that we will have a year-round growing season within a
generation," says Dr Tim Mitchell.

It is likely that the increase in growing season length is due to human emissions of
greenhouse gases. "It demonstrates the need to consider ways to adapt to changes in
climate that are already occurring, as well as reducing our emissions of greenhouse
gases in the future", he says.

4 April 2003

Climate change –can the natural world cope with the damage already done?

We have changed our environment significantly throughout our history. Global

climate change poses a different type of threat: the rate of warming already exceeds
anything experienced in the last 10,000 years. But can we survive this dramatically
chang i
ngc li
ma teanda retheEa rth’sec osy st
emsr esili
e ntenought os urvivein their
current form given the other pressures they are subjected to by human development?

This is the major challenge laid down today (8 April 2003) by Professor Mike
Hulme, a senior climate change scientist at an international conference on Global
climate change and biodiversity at the University of East Anglia, Norwich.
“Clima t
ec hangewi l
lc ert
ai nlyc ont
inue.It will probably accelerate and we could
seeunpr ecedente dc hange si nt heEar th’sc l
i mat eove rt hec omi ngye arsand
decades. These changes in such a powerful influence on ecological development will
introduce new challenges for the way we conserve our natural world.
17 July 2003
Caribbean corals decline 80% in 25 years
Coral reefs across the Caribbean have suffered a phenomenal 80% decline in their
coral cover during the past three decades, reveals new research from the University
of East Anglia (UEA) and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,
published this week in the international online journal Science Express.
The amount of reef covered by hard corals, the main builders of reef framework, has
decreased on average from 50% to just 10% in the last 25 years. Although the
majority of the loss occurred in the 1980s, there is no evidence that the rate of
coral loss is slowing. (surely these two statements are antagonistic?)

22 January 204
The Climate Change Context of the Aviation White Paper
Thiswe e k’sAvi ationWhi tePa perg avea nundul yl owpr iorit
yt ot hea nti
cipa t
ed
environmental impacts of aviation expansion, writes Dr Paul Upham of the Tyndall
Nor t
hi naPol icyNot eint hismont h’
sJ our nalofEnvi ronme ntalPl anninga nd
Management. His analysis, conducted earlier this year and confirmed by the
White Paper, shows that with the recommended expansion by 2020, over a quarter of
theUK’ s carbon dioxide emissions could be due to aviation alone. In 2000, aviation
was responsible for 6% of UK emissions. Only ten months ago the UK Government
endorsed an emissions reduction target of 60% by 2050.

7th January 2004

CARBONRATI ONI
NG…TOSAVETHEPLANET

Scientists devise 'equal rights' system to combat climate change

Scientists at UMIST's Tyndall Centre have devised a system to combat climate
change giving each and every adult in the country an equal greenhouse gas
'allowance'. Unlike a carbon tax system, where people emit as much carbon dioxide as
the amount of fuel plus carbon tax they can afford, each adult would be given a smart
card that only allows them to use a certain amount of carbon 'units'.

20 March 2004
Climate change predictions for the UK include an increase in extreme weather events
(like floods and heat waves) and will explore possible issues arising from these.
Including: illnesses and deaths caused by heat waves, flooding and diseases
transmitted by insects, food or contaminated water. Other issues are the indirect
impacts, such as higher exposure to UV radiation from increased sunbathing
during warmer and sunnier summers, and how politicians might address these.

05 July 2005 A low carbon future could cost G8 Leaders less than they think
(This was the forerunner to the Stern Report, which was largely written by Tyndall
Staff)
The cost of a low carbon future may be no greater than the costs of investing in
current energy technologies concludes a major set of studies published by a network
of senior economists through the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
They show that the net cost of climate change mitigation technologies depends
crucially on the extent to which policy measures can reduce and stimulate innovation
to reduce the costs of new technology.

Andt oa nswe rthe‘ howmuc hc ost

?’que stionl ast
,t he
irans we rini sbe twe en0-2% of
world GDP by 2050. This is equivalent to delaying reaching the global economic
output of 2050 to a year later in 2051. By this time, GDP is likely to have risen by two
to three hundred percent in most economies.

21 September 2005
Every one
’sc a r
bondi oxideemi ssi
o nsmus tg ot oz erot
oal
lowf
ora
via
tionpol
lut
ion
reveals major analysis of UK climate change targets

All householders, motorists and businesses will have to reduce their carbon dioxide
pollution to zero if the growing aviation industry is to be incorporated into
Gove r nme ntc li
ma tec hanget a
rg et
sf or2050r e vea lsne wr esearchf romt heUK’
s
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The report shows that even if
aviation’sc urrentg rowt hishalvedf rom t oday ’sle ve l
,ther estoft hee conomywill
require carbon dioxide cuts far beyond Government targets.

“IftheUKg ove r
nme ntdoe snotc urbaviationgrowt h,a l lot
hersec torsofthe
economy will eventually be forced to become carbon neutral. It will undermine the
internat
iona lcompe t
itivenessofUKi ndustry”,saysDrKe vi
nAnde rsonwhol edt he
research at the Tyndall Centre at Manchester University.

This is the ultimate mind bender, the climate in the year 3000:

February 2006 - Climate Change on the Millennial Timescale, by the Tyndall Centre
for Climate Change Research and Environment Agency

New research released by the Environment Agency today shows that the decisions of
this generation will leave a legacy of increasing climate change over the next
millennium unless there is a major reduction in emissions.

With temperatures increasing by up to 15°C and seas rising by up to 11.4 metres,

e
low-lying areas of the UK would be threatne
dwi t
hfloodinga ndt heUK’ sc li
ma t
e
couldr es
e mbl etha toft oda
y’stropicsbyt heyea
r3000.

Climate Change on the Millennial Timescale, is the first study to comprehensively

examine impacts beyond the end of this century. The report implies that the UK will
need to make major emissions reductions over the next couple of decades as part of a
global effort to prevent abrupt climate changes.

The new study projects climate change over the next millennium, examining the
impacts across the centuries. Increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions lead in one
model to an abrupt climate change where sea temperatures plunge by 3°C as a result
of the collapse of warm sea currents.
A second abrupt change occurs with the rapid disappearance of the Arctic sea ice.
This warms Arctic seas by up to 8°C and land temperatures at UK latitudes by up to
5°C in the space of a couple of decades.

The report says that by the year 3000:

•Gl oba landr e giona lwa rmingc ouldmor et ha nqua dr uplea fter2100:Te mpe ratures
could rise from1.5°C if emissions are minimised to as much as 15°C if we continue
burning fossil fuels - more than four times the predictions for the year 2100. The EU
sayst hat“ g l
oba lannua lme ansur fa
c etempe r
a t
ur einc reaseshoul dnote xcee d2° C
above pre-industriall evels
” ;
•Se ale velswi lls t
illber is
inga tt hee ndoft hismi l
lenni um a ndc ouldr each11. 4m by
year 3000: This would mean that without action low-lying areas of the UK, including
London, would be threatened by sea level rise.

This figure compares with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) global average sea level change of 0.16 to 0.69m by the 2080s. The
de f
initionof“ danger
ous ”c lima t
ec ha ngea dopt edinthes tudyi sag l
oba lse
a
level rise of 2m –which will flood large areas of Bangladesh, Florida and
many low lying cities, and displace hundreds of millions of people;

•Abr up tcli
ma t
ec ha ngee ve ntsc ouldoc cur:Bus iness-as-usual emissions could lead
to the collapse of currents in the Atlantic, causing North Atlantic sea temperatures to
fall by 3°C, affecting agriculture and marine life particularly at the latitude of the UK.

If emissions continue, Arctic sea ice could completely disappear all year
round, causing North Atlantic seas, previously cooled to heat up to 8°C
accompanied by UK land temperature increases of up to 5°C within 20 years;

•The seabr uptclimatec hangesc anha ppe nl onga fteremi ss

ionsc e
ase :Abr upt
changes may be triggered many decades before they actually occur. Even after
emissions have completely ceased there is still a legacy from decades past - a
“sl
eepingg ia
nt”int hec li
ma tesystem;

•Oc e anpHwi llfalldramaticall

y :Oc eanpHi spr edictedt ofalldrama ti
c al
lypos
inga
threat to marine organisms, such as corals and plankton. Such fundamental changes to
plankton would have large implications for the rest of the marine ecosystem;

•Pot entia lclima techa nge scouldb emuc hg re

ater,anda voi da nceofda nge rous
climate change even harder, than currently projected: Climate changes could be even
greater if the climate system turns out to be more sensitive to the level of greenhouse
gas emissions than the conservative assumptions made in this study. Only by
minimising emissions, which means reducing them to zero in 2200 –can dangerous
climate change be avoided.

Lead author, Dr Tim Lenton, Tyndall Centre and University of East Anglia, said:
"We present a sobering picture of potential climate change on the millennial
timescale. Whilst most studies stop at year 2100 with temperatures and sea level
rising we explored where they are heading into the next millennium. "Only by starting
to reduce CO2 emissions now, and continuing to reduce them can we avoid dangerous
climate changes on the millennial time-scale, including the gradual melt of the
Greenland ice sheet" he said.

"If we follow business-as-usual then we will commit future generations to dangerous

climate change, and if we exploit unconventional fossil fuels we could return the
Earth to a hot state it hasn't seen since 55 million years ago," Dr Lenton said.

03 May 2006 Ar chbi shopofCa nterburyl aunchesTy ndallCe ntre’sne wc l

ima te
change research strategy
DrRowa nWi l
liamst heAr c hbishopofCa nterburyi stomor rowhe l
pingtheUK’ s
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research launch its new research strategy.
As guest of honour he is talking on the huge moral and practical problem of climate
change.

“Clima techangei snotonl ya boutscie ncea ndtechnology ”s a ysProfess

orMi ke
Hulme, Founding Director of the Tyndall Centre and Professor at the University of
East Anglia .“Cl
ima t
ec hanger ai
sespr ofoundque stionsa boute thi
cs,j
usticea nd
equitya ffecti
ngthisa ndf utureg enerationsa ndabouthuma nity ’
srelat
ionshipwi ththe
planet. The Tyndall Centre recognises these dimensions as of fundamental importance
and seeks to i
ntegratethemwi thours cience ,engi
ne er
inga nde conomi cres e
arch.”

Sep 15 2006 - UK's first climate road map published

The Government has only four years to implement a major new programme of
action to cut carbon emissions if the UK is to play its part in keeping global
temperatures below danger levels [1] warned a new report launched by The Co-
operative Bank and Friends of the Earth today (15 September).

The report, 'The Future starts here: the route to a low carbon economy' is based upon
research commissioned from The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the
University of Manchester. It is the UK's first comprehensive roadmap to a low carbon
economy that would deliver on Government commitments to keep temperatures from
rising beyond a critical point.

The report suggests that a carbon budget of around 4.6 Giga tonnes between 2000 and
2050 would allow the UK to play its part in keeping temperatures from rising two
degree centigrade above pre-industrial levels - the danger level. If emissions continue
at the current rate the UK would emit close to double this amount by 2050.

A few months later Hulme was backing away from the sort of scaremongering his
own institution had been putting out:

VIEWPOINT
By Mike Hulme, Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6115644.stm 4 November 2006

"Climate change is a reality, and science confirms that human activities are heavily
implicated in this change. But over the last few years a new environmental
phenomenon has been constructed in this country - the phenomenon of
"catastrophic" climate change.
"Why is it not just campaigners, but politicians and scientists too, who are openly
confusing the language of fear, terror and disaster with the observable physical reality
of climate change, actively ignoring the careful hedging which surrounds science's
predictions?

I wonder who he was referring to?

Dennis Ambler March 2009